asterisk2a + blackswan   20

Die Macht der Finanzkonzerne - Wie Blackrock mittels Geld die Welt regiert - YouTube
extraction of fat. no skin in the game. // Privatisation of housing stock - social and affordable, anglo saxon capitalism style; profit maximisation, dividends. // after Goldman Sachs the new vampiresquid // no skin in game; get money for speculation from pension funds, other investors, mutual funds. << that is the system! // nur wer geld hat, kann es vermehren. // nearly no governance, no guidelines regarding sustainability, ethics, transparency, morals. // no regulation = big profit and exploitation, corruption, bribery.
BlackRock  MBO  LBO  M&A  Private  Equity  financial  product  Hedge  Fund  Black  Swan  blackswan  Nassim  Taleb  self-regulation  Mutual  Fund  Venture  Capital  risk  governance  corporate  governance  lobbyist  lobby  Lobbying  Wall  Street  shareholder  value  profit  maximisation  activist  investor  Main  Street  accountability  transparency  mainstreet  arbitrage  squeezed  middle  class  wage  stagnation  bonuses  bonus  speculation  revolving  door  regulation  regulators  Career  Politicians  CEO  pay  dividends  Heuschrecken  ROI  speculative  sustainability  tax  code  ethics  corporate  scandal  accounting  scandal  oligarchy  plutocracy  Super  Rich  1%  GFC  sovereign  debt  crisis 
february 2016 by asterisk2a
Vickers warns over weaker bank safety buffers - BBC News
[ no skin in the game ] The man charged with leading an inquiry into the future safety of Britain's banks has said Bank of England plans are not strong enough. Sir John Vickers, who led the Independent Commission on Banking (ICB) said: "The Bank of England proposal is less strong than what the ICB recommended." In a BBC interview, he added "I don't think the ICB overdid it." The Bank of England declined to comment. Specifically, it is the plans to make sure that banks have enough capital that Sir John has questioned. Capital is considered vital to a bank's safety, as it serves to protect it from sudden losses. It comes in many forms, but the most common is funding from shareholders, who expect a hefty return on the risk they are taking. The backdrop to this news is the current slump in bank share prices across Europe. Since the start of the year, European banking stocks have lost a quarter of their value. //&!
zombie  banks  retail  banking  investment  banking  toobigtofail  too  big  to  jail  TBTF  too  big  to  bail  economic  history  lobbyist  lobby  Lobbying  GFC  speculation  CDS  CDO  derivatives  Interestrateswap  financial  product  VAR  risk-management  risk  management  Greed  bonuses  bonus  financial  crisis  blackswan  Black  Swan  Career  Politicians  No  Representation  democracy  Super  Rich  1%  plutocracy  oligarchy  Wall  Street  shareholder  value  profit  maximisation  short-termism  self-regulation  regulation  deregulation  regulators  Glass-Steagall  BOE  ECB  Bundesbank  sovereign  debt  crisis  Fed 
february 2016 by asterisk2a
Hawking: Humans at risk of lethal 'own goal' - BBC News
Humanity is at risk from a series of dangers of our own making, according to Prof Stephen Hawking. Nuclear war, global warming and genetically-engineered viruses are among the scenarios which he singles out. And he says that further progress in science and technology will create "new ways things can go wrong". Prof Hawking is giving this year's BBC Reith Lectures, which explore research into black holes, and his warning came in answer to audience questions. He says that assuming humanity eventually establishes colonies on other worlds, it will be able to survive. "Although the chance of a disaster to planet Earth in a given year may be quite low, it adds up over time, and becomes a near certainty in the next thousand or ten thousand years. [...] But he also said that future generations of researchers should be aware of how scientific and technological progress is changing the world, and to help the wider public understand it. //&!
humanity  blackswan  GFC  self-regulation  humanitarian  crisis  human  tragedy  geneticallyengineered  genetics  gene  editing  global  warming  climate  crisis  climate  change  food  security  National  health  crisis  antibiotics  antibiotic  resistance  post-antibiotic  era  sick  population  nuclear  power  nuclear  waste  nuclear  war  climate  science  climate  system  water  scarcity  watersupply  water  rights  water  supply  water  pollution  water  security  drinking  water  inequality  Super  Rich  1%  Wall  Street  shareholder  value  profit  maximisation  shared  economic  interest  Stephen  Hawking  ecological  disaster  environmental  disaster  mass  extinction  unknown  unkown  unintended  consequences  Fukushima  extreme  weather  weather  extreme  economic  damage  AI  artificial  intelligence  Elon  Musk 
january 2016 by asterisk2a
Digital Dark Matter: The Unseen Forces That Influence Innovation | TechCrunch
Christian Cantrell wrote a piece about the unseen forces that influence innovation and how it is similar to dark matter. Despite all we think we know about the nature of the universe, the overwhelming majority of the cosmos lies outside our current powers of observation, yet it profoundly affects everything. The same goes with the forces that influence innovation. // [...] Despite all we think we know about the nature of the universe, the overwhelming majority of the cosmos lies outside our current powers of observation, yet it profoundly affects everything. So it goes with the forces that influence innovation. [...] But it might also be true that we are entering a time when the wisdom of surrounding ourselves with yet more computers, cameras, and sensors is legitimately called into question[.]
innovation  creative  destruction  unknown  unkown  artificial  intelligence  AI  Robotics  Why  Software  Is  Eating  the  World  Software  Is  Eating  World  complexity  unknown  unknowns  blackswan  Black  Swan  disrupting  markets  disruption  autonomous  cars  self-driving  cars  Moore's  Law  IoT  Smarthome  technological  history  technological  progress  human  progress  Transhumanism  quantified  self  Philosophy  sociology 
october 2014 by asterisk2a
Jon Stewart on Alibaba 'The communists have beaten us at capitalism' $baba - YouTube
risk carried by shareholders. shady, intransparent, no sheriff for a town that does not exist. ... sounds like something big to hit the fan, maybe, eventually. possible. black swan event?
Alibaba  IPO  oversight  regulators  regulation  China  Silicon  Valley  Wall  Street  crony  capitalism  capitalism  Patriarchy  Jack  Ma  corporatism  conglomerate  blackswan  risk  taking  behavioral  finance  Group  behaviour  asset  bubble  equity  bubble  2014 
september 2014 by asterisk2a
Wirtschaftskrise: Deutsche Wirtschaft mit starkem Export ist anfällig - SPIEGEL ONLINE
Typischerweise produzieren dominante ökonomische Narrative zuerst Illusionen und dann große Probleme. Wo eine Geschichte von Marktteilnehmern, Regulierern und Beobachtern vorbehaltlos akzeptiert wird, ist der Boden bereitet für Irrtümer, die uns am Ende Kopf und Kragen kosten können, wie ich meinem neuen Buch argumentiere. >> Die Politik des billigen Geldes verzerrt die Wirtschaftsstrukturen .... - die deutsche Wirtschaft unterfinanziert & Dass die Politik des ultrabilligen Geldes die Wirtschaftsstrukturen verzerrt, auch hierzulande. [CreditCrunch/transmission mechanism broken/hunt for yield/betongold/no-investments] +++ die Digitalisierung auch die produktionslastige deutsche Wirtschaft fundamental durcheinanderwirbeln wird. [Year of Code/Education Policy/Human Capital - high ed imigrants/Mobile Creatives/Share Economy] +++ Spiegel 37/2014 "Deutschland der Scheinriese" Cover Story
GFC  bubble  property  bubble  bubbles  economic  history  economics  society  storytelling  narrative  journalism  journalismus  PIGS  UK  USA  Germany  Exportweltmeister  flat  world  globalisation  globalization  exports  export  Europe  Structural  Impediments  imbalance  faultlines  competitiveness  competitive  competitive  advantage  comparative  advantage  2014  Career  Politicians  short-term  thinking  short-term  view  long-term  thinking  long-term  view  Policy  Makers  error  folly  trust  trustagent  confidence  accountability  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  ECB  monetary  fiscal  LTRO  OMT  ABS  unconventional  monetary  monetary  transmission  mechanism  business  investment  infrastructure  investment  distortion  Wall  Street  centralbanks  IMF  IBS  liquidity  trap  creditcrunch  unintended  consequences  complexity  unknown  unkown  unknown  unknowns  blackswan  Black  Swan  Betongold  Beton  Gold  Future  of  Work  Mobile  Creative  Mobile  Creatives  Year  of  Code  education  Public  Policy  hunt  for  yield  human  capital  immigration  demographics  demographic  bubble  demography 
september 2014 by asterisk2a
The War Nerd: Here’s everything you need to know about “too extreme for Al Qaeda” I.S.I.S. | PandoDaily
As the Scriptures remind us, “Do not believe the hype.” The hype of the moment is ISIS, the Sunni militia that just drove the so-called Iraqi Army out of Mosul, Tikrit, and other Iraqi cities. This is one of those dramatic military reverses that mean a lot less than meets the eye. The “Iraqi Army” routed by ISIS wasn’t really a national army, and ISIS isn’t really a dominant military force. It was able to occupy those cities because they were vacuums, abandoned by a weak, sectarian force. Moving into vacuums like this is what ISIS is good at. And that’s the only thing ISIS is good at. +++ +++ For what is NSA and CIA and Pentagon good for? Isn't that something that foreign service should have had a tap on? +++ and then those words after years of not acting on the rise of ISIS in Syria;
ISIS  Iraq  Syrien  Syria  USA  Europe  Russia  foreignaffairs  foreign  policy  foreign  affairs  diplomacy  unknown  unknowns  complexity  unintended  consequences  blackswan  NSA  CIA  World  Police  UK  MI6  GCHQ  BND  Germany  Middle  East 
june 2014 by asterisk2a | Frank Schirrmacher - Emigration Of Thinking Because Of Algorithms.
... apart from teaching algo's, people have to be taught too - to think about the third factor that puts everything in question. algo's are about the absolute solution to problem x. thus we become blind to factor x, the third factor, the black swan (see GFC, we are not in a bubble, houseprices never reverted back to the mean). Narrative, doubt (zweifel), intuition - vs - algo's outcome. Without narrative, what world is that, where we just have results only? No narrative (linearity), no grammar. What world is that?
book  evolution  singularity  algorithm  algo  algorithms  Frank  Schirrmacher  technological  progress  ethical  machine  computer  science  degree  history  blackswan  GFC  Google  Facebook  filter  bubble  filters  filter  nassimtaleb  Nassim  Taleb  academia  academics  economic  history  debate  digital  economy  digital  world  unknown  unknowns  zweifel  intuition  narrative  doubt  Twitter  Pinterest  okcupid  Philosophy 
june 2014 by asterisk2a
Hugh Hendry Capitulates: "Can't Look At Himself In The Mirror" As He Throws In The Towel, Turns Bullish | Zero Hedge
First David Rosenberg, then Jeremy Grantham, and now Hugh Hendry: one after another the bears are throwing in the towel. As Investment Week reports, speaking at Harrington Cooper's 2013 conference this morning, Hugh Hendry said "he is no longer fighting the two-way feedback loop which is continuing to boost risk assets." The reflexive feedback loop envisioned by Hendry is the following and centres on the currency war being played out between the US and China, "in which US QE prompts dollar-denominated investment to head to China, and China fights the resulting upwards pressure on its currency by manufacturing an investment boom. Hendry said this creates a "global supply glut", leading to falling US inflation expectations (as this supply far outweights US domestic demand) - which in turn prompts the Federal Reserve to loosen policy once again." Rinse. Repeat. [... DONT FIGHT THE FED ...] [...] You have got to be in things that are trending.
HughHendry  supply-demand  savings  glut  supply  glut  QE  ZIRP  deflation  deflationary  reflation  inflation  monetary  policy  unconventional  monetary  policy  modern  monetary  theory  NIRP  negative  real  interest  rate  liquidity  liquidity-trap  WallStreet  asset  bubble  blackswan  fat  tail  Fed  GFC  Debt  Super  Cycle  trading  proptrading  hunt  for  yield  financial  repression  New  Normal 
november 2013 by asterisk2a
Mainstream Media Says Cyprus Salvaged By EU Deal, I Say Cyprus Is Sacrificed By Said Deal - Thrown Into Depression | Zero Hedge
“Policy makers’ recent decisions raise the risk of deposit outflows, capital flight, increased bank and sovereign funding costs and broader financial-market dislocation throughout the euro area in the future,” Moody’s said. >> >> :: Depression for Cyprus: Our Cypriot GDP forecast entails a drop of just over 20% in real GDP by 2017. This forecast had already factored in much what was agreed, but did not account for the additional uncertainty shock generated by the past week’s appalling political mess. > > >
Laiki  Wolfgang  Schäuble  Politics  unintended  consequences  Toika  Policy  Error  bail-in  ELA  blackswan  ECB  Cyprus  Bank  of  Cyprus  Russia  Germany  bailout  folly 
march 2013 by asterisk2a
EZB: Ankündigung von Draghi zum Anleihenkauf enttäuscht Anleger - SPIEGEL ONLINE
ECB loading up on sovereign debt (PIIGS + France, Belgium) poses a balance sheet risk if just one country Defaults outright and or even imposed just a haircut even for ECB [ECB demanded and pulled through this demand to take no haircut in the Grecce's partial default/PSI 2011].

Meaning then that the ECBs balance sheet is under water and thus the National Central Banks of each country within the EMU have to raise money via its respective governments on debt markets (which are likely then closed because of the severity of the situation, meaning they have to sell their reserve holding of foreign currencies and assets) and without appropriate funds ... Europe's sovereign debt crisis once defined to the south would likely turn into an outright currency crisis.

Baseline: Open Market Operations (SMP) by the ECB have massive tail risk, unintended consequences for the ECB, the monetary system, price stability, the Euro.
ZIRP  QE  SMP  bank  crisis  banking  crisis  greatrecession  GFC  currency-war  currency  debasement  default  Greece  policy  folly  policy  error  2012  Europe  blackswan  confidence  trustagent  trust  tail  risk  Euro  creditcrunch  Monetary  System  theory  policy  sovereign  debt  crisis  PIIGS  Jens  Weidmann  MarioDraghi  Bundesbank  ECB 
august 2012 by asterisk2a
Nassim Taleb on JPMorganChase +2bn quartely loss by London unit - YouTube
Nassim Taleb argues:
- losses arise bc the math didn't work (( the model, risk metrics, too complex as the world can be )), simplifies fact - naming theses people incompetent.

- argues that investment banking needs to be split up from retail, investment banks need skin in the game - traders need skin in game - like hedge funds.
banking  politics  complexity  blackswan  Black-Scholes  Equation  black  risk-management  risk  nassimtaleb  Glass-Steagall  JamieDimon  jpmorganchase 
may 2012 by asterisk2a
The mathematical equation that caused the banks to crash | Science | The Observer
The Black-Scholes equation has its roots in mathematical physics, where quantities are infinitely divisible, time flows continuously and variables change smoothly. Such models may not be appropriate to the world of finance. Traditional mathematical economics doesn't always match reality, either, and when it fails, it fails badly. Physicists, mathematicians and economists are therefore looking for better models.

At the forefront of these efforts is complexity science, a new branch of mathematics that models the market as a collection of individuals interacting according to specified rules. These models reveal the damaging effects of the herd instinct: market traders copy other market traders. Virtually every financial crisis in the last century has been pushed over the edge by the herd instinct. It makes everything go belly-up at the same time. If engineers took that attitude, and one bridge in the world fell down, so would all the others.
herding  sociology  irrational  complexity  CDS  blackswan  economic  history  creditcrunch  greatrecession  GFC  derivatives  mathematics  Economics  Black-Scholes  Equation 
february 2012 by asterisk2a
Small Economies, Big Problems, and Global Interdependence - Kemal Dervis - Project Syndicate
As these examples indicate, however, systemic importance is not just a question of size. What matters is the interconnections that link a particular country, institution, or group of institutions (for example, Lehman Brothers and AIG) to the wider world economy.
Surveillance of systemic risk must proactively test and analyze these interconnections, and try to imagine the “hard to imagine.” After all, as we now know only too well, systemic risk can emerge in unexpected places.
Interdependence has become much more complex than it was even a decade ago. The IMF needs to be empowered to analyze the macroeconomic and macro-financial risks that have emerged, establish an early-warning system, and propose possible preemptive policy measures. The Fund’s almost universal membership and its staff’s technical expertise should enable it to carry out effective multilateral surveillance, ...  in everyone’s interest.

LTCM, Asia Crisis, Greece, Yemen, Politics, ...
PIIGS  systemicrisk  toobigtofail  sovereign  debt  crisis  tippingpoint  IMF  blackswan  history 
july 2011 by asterisk2a
China Will Suspend Open Market Operations Tomorrow In Response To Liquidity Freeze | zero hedge
Why is this important? Because as is by now well known, China is Europe's white knight, and Chinese banks, likely with the assistance of the PBoC, have been buying up European (and Japanese bonds). Yet will it be able to do so in light of the lock out of banks from overnight liquidity? This is currently unknown, although speculation that June inflation will be even higher than May's, likely have ominous implications for future liquidity as more rate hikes are imminent.
And if the liquidity freeze is already affecting open market operations, it is very much unclear what this means for general fund flows within the Chinese economy. One factor that can provide a brief respite is the maturity of CNY83 billion in bills and repos this week, which will inject some much needed liquidity in the market.
Keep a close eye on the SHIBOR: if China ends up needing Central Bank assistance in the unsecured lending market, it will destroy all credibility of the Chinese "White Knight" scenario.
China  interbank  liquidity  overnight  lending  bank  PIIGS  Spain  bailout  2011  PBoC  ECB  blackswan  credit 
june 2011 by asterisk2a
Japan Crisis Isn't Yet Grasped by the Markets -
Such “what if” scripts are the stuff of modern Wall Street. Everyone runs them. Entire schools of financial analysis are devoted to examining historical market patterns in the belief that those patterns can predict the future.
Such analysis, of course, depends on — and perhaps even encourages — our belief that tomorrow will be much like today. And all that despite the fine-print caveat on your 401(k) statement that reads, “Past performance is no guarantee of future success.”

 we rely on history for guidance - and that is a fallacy 

Big economic questions remain unanswered.
wallstreet  japan  2011  earthquake  nuclear  fallout  model  financial  performance  hypocrisy  finance  investment  blackswan  history  economics  unintended  consequences 
march 2011 by asterisk2a
BBC News - Economic problems 'worse than thought', says Cameron
He will say: "Today I want to set out for the country the big arguments that form the background to the inevitably painful times that lie ahead of us, why we need to do this, why the overall scale of the problem is even worse than we thought and why its potential consequences are therefore more critical than we feared."

He will reiterate his argument that, without tackling the deficit, confidence in the British economy will take a hit which could risk pushing up interest rates and increasingly taxes will be used to pay interest on the national debt, rather than being spent on public services.

Mr Cameron will say decisions are needed with "enormous implications" which cannot be ducked or got wrong, adding: "I want this government to carry out Britain's unavoidable deficit reduction plan in a way that strengthens and unites the country."
davidcameron  uk  sovereign  debt  june  2010  politics  blackswan 
june 2010 by asterisk2a

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