asterisk2a + allocation   120

Here's Why All Pension Funds Are Doomed, Doomed, Doomed
Given that both The Economist and The Wall Street Journal have covered the impossibility of pension funds achieving their expected returns, this reality cannot be a surprise to anyone in a leadership role. [...] Here's problem #1 in a nutshell: the average public pension fund still expects to earn an average annual return of 7.69%, year after year, decade after decade.

This is roughly triple the nominal (not adjusted for inflation) yield on a 30-year Treasury bond (about 2.65%). The only way any fund manager can earn 7.7% or more in a low-yield environment is to make extremely high risk bets that consistently pay off. //&! Millennials are first gen to have earned less in their 20's than previous gens. - bit.ly/2a9M98K
ZIRP  NIRP  QE  unintended  consequences  pension  obligation  triple-lock  pension  babyboomers  Baby  Boomers  demographic  bubble  ageing  population  hunt  for  yield  life  insurance  insurance  industry  monetary  policy  Helicopter  Money  monetary  theory  bond  bubble  Richard  Koo  liquidity  trap  economic  history  recovery  Fed  BOE  ECB  Abenomics  western  world  Japan  BOJ  pension  fund  Beton  Gold  Betongold  property  bubble  asset  allocation  funds  allocation  asset  bubble  Pensioner  pension  scheme  secular  stagnation  austerity  deflation  deflationary  Confidence  Fairy  IMF  OECD  credit  boom  credit  bubble  New  Normal  Great  Moderation  economic  harm  economic  damage  reflate  reflation  equity  bubble  distortion 
july 2016 by asterisk2a
Behind the Bond-Stock Divide Is a Big and Risky Bet on Central Banks - WSJ
The idea is that if stocks are rising, bond yields should be climbing too. Here's how to reconcile it. The answer is central banks. If rates are going to stay lower for longer; if more rounds of quantitative easing are coming; if new ways of easing are coming -- the rates should be going down and stocks moving higher. [...] It's about dividends paying more than bonds. 90% of the bond market universe is near 2% or lower. //&! http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-07-12/germany-about-sell-zero-coupon-10-year-bonds-first-time-ever //&! http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-07-13/we-just-found-out-who-has-been-buying-all-these-record-low-yielding-bonds - When your nation's bonds are trading with a record low 28bps negative yield (10Y JGBs), everything else in the world (aside from Swiss 10Y) is a relative 'value'...
bond  bubble  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  equity  bubble  hunt  for  yield  central  banks  BIS  Fed  BOE  ECB  BOJ  PBOC  secular  stagnation  wage  growth  output  gap  productivity  gap  squeezed  middle  class  working  poor  Precariat  inequality  Gini  coefficient  western  world  rising  middleclass  Asia  BRIC  income  distribution  tax  evasion  tax  avoidance  crony  capitalism  capitalism  in  crisis  capitalism  neoliberal  neoliberalism  globalisation  global  economy  globalization  free  trade  dividends  underinvestment  business  confidence  consumer  confidence  discretionary  spending  disposable  income  student  debt  consumer  debt  car  loan  property  bubble  speculative  bubble  speculative  bubbles  distortion  asset  allocation  austerity  AI  Robotics  automation  augmented  intelligence  Structural  Impediments  imbalance  unemployment  long-term  unemployment  skills  gap  skill-biased  technological  change  skills  shortage  economic  history  Brexit  technological  history  underemployed  underemployment  part-time  deflation  deflationary  JGB 
july 2016 by asterisk2a
"Deutsche Bank Poses The Greatest Risk To The Global Financial System": IMF
via Keister Report - https://youtu.be/fbh3rndGDN8 // a Italian banking crisis could topple them. that is why they (their economist) called for a EU bank bailout (shore up). //&! IMF Warns Of "Global Contagion" From Italy's Bank Crisis; Forecasts Two-Decade Long Recession - http://bit.ly/29sFINn - [...] "Unless asset quality and profitability problems are addressed in a timely manner, lingering problems of weaker banks can eventually weigh on the rest of the system," //&! http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-07-09/charting-epic-collapse-worlds-most-systemically-dangerous-bank //&! Analyst Warns Deutsche Bank's Problems May Now Be "Insurmountable" - http://bit.ly/29LwUjv - [...] we believe DBK is still over 40x levered. [...] Seeking outside capital is also likely to be difficult as management would likely find it hard to offer any type of return on new capital invested. //&! its known balance sheet - http://bit.ly/29usGKG - 1.74 trillion balance sheet!
Italy  Germany  derivatives  Deutsche  Bank  BuBa  BaFin  Wolfgang  Schäuble  Angela  Merkel  investment  banking  systemic  risk  systemicrisk  systemrelevant  systemrelevanz  European  Bank  Supervision  stresstest  contagion  repo  trust  sovereign  debt  crisis  PIGS  Greece  Brexit  non-performing  loan  zombie  banks  zombie  austerity  secular  stagnation  recession  ECB  MarioDraghi  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  hunt  for  yield  asset  allocation  distortion  OMT  LTRO  Basel  III  Basel3  leverage  banking  union  Bank  Oversight  banking  crisis  banking  system  interbank  lending  overnight  deposit  facility 
july 2016 by asterisk2a
Brexit: Singapore bank UOB suspends London property loans
"With foreign exchange risks, even if the value of the overseas property rises, any gains will be eroded if the country's currency depreciates against the Singapore dollar," Mr Tok explained. // Chinese (and Asian) love their Betongold (most likely to be around 50% of their portfolio). Now in the hole because GBP lost 10%. But doesn't account for Yuan depreciation/devaluation.
Forex  GBP  devaluation  British  Pound  FX  Brexit  property  bubble  London  speculative  bubble  asset  bubble  asset  allocation  distortion  hunt  for  yield  Interest  Rate  Swap  Beton  Gold  Betongold 
june 2016 by asterisk2a
Keiser Report: Your Special Brexit Coctail (E932) - YouTube
// housebuilding shares hammered. property funds close redemption possibility bc of too much redemption - bank run - funds have to sell some investments at a loss to repay investors. // what is weighting UK economy is too much debt to gdp (bank bailout), consumer credit (boe sounded alarm bells before brexit vote) and too much leverage. //&! Planet Ponzi Paperback (2012) by Mitch Feierstein //&! UK better out w problems of PIGS, Italy, and banking problem.
Brexit  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  asset  allocation  property  bubble  speculative  bubble  speculative  bubbles  mortgage  market  City  of  London  RBS  BOE  Mark  Carney  Help  to  Save  Help  to  Buy  Scheme  Funding  for  Lending  Scheme  Right  to  Buy  distortion  George  Osborne  David  Cameron  Centrist  austerity  Housing  Crisis  Conservative  Party  book 
june 2016 by asterisk2a
FLUCTUATIONS IN ECONOMIC ACTIVITY: ONLY ONE CAUSE
The financial crisis of 2006/7 turned into a recession prolonged by a failure to manage monetary demand efficiently to achieve target inflation. With the failure of Lehman Bros interbank markets froze and banks stopped commercial lending. Since then a mixture of quantitative easing and distortingly low interest rates has only managed to create the illusion of a boom as bubbles have developed in property and other asset prices.
GFC  economic  history  fiscal  policy  monetary  policy  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  distortion  M3  liquidity  trap  credit  growth  money  creation  process  money  supply  secular  stagnation  aggregate  demand  austerity  asset  bubble  asset  allocation  hunt  for  yield  western  world  UK  USA 
june 2016 by asterisk2a
Canada Overwhelmed By 100,000 Chinese Millionaire Immigrants - YouTube
Flaunting your wealth. No connection w your culture and heritage. [...] also land taxes based on property value make it not affordable for some ... [...] Chinese love their property, half of their wealth/portfolio ... // http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/top-business-stories/canadian-house-prices-from-overvaluation-to-downright-zany/article30535075/ &! http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/canada-banks-mortgage-1.3643793 - Canadian banks could survive a 25% house price decline, Moody's says. Banking system would be fine even if Toronto and Vancouver see a crash, ratings agency says.
Beton  Gold  Betongold  Canada  USA  China  property  bubble  real  estate  bubble  UK  globalisation  globalization  immigration  economic  history  asset  allocation  affordability  affordable  housing  social  housing  Generation  Rent  rent-seeking  rentier  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  BOC  secular  stagnation  migration  valuation  asset  bubble  asset  liquidity  distortion  distorted  Germany  1%  Super  Rich  Gini  coefficient  inequality  Latin  America  BRIC  emerging  middle  class  India  Asia 
june 2016 by asterisk2a
What Happens Next (In Europe)?
the odds of another crisis are higher than a rally to fresh records. [...]
“The 2009-2015 rally originated from two main drivers: a massive stimulus, and credit expansion in China,” said Goette, who’s a partner at his firm in Zug, Switzerland and helps oversee 1 billion Swiss francs ($1 billion).

“European earnings have not followed suit so far. Skepticism regarding central-bank operations has started to emerge.”
ECB  Brussels  recovery  reflate  reflation  China  credit  bubble  Germany  PIGS  zombie  banks  European  Bank  Supervision  European  Economic  Area  European  Election  2014  working  poor  squeezed  middle  class  Soziale  Marktwirtschaft  MarioDraghi  OMT  LTRO  monetary  policy  monetary  stimulus  Fiscal  Pact  Schuldenbremse  sovereign  debt  crisis  France  Brexit  Grexit  Angela  Merkel  Wolfgang  Schäuble  history  underinvestment  Richard  Koo  Yanis  Varoufakis  liquidity  trap  zombie  corporations  youth  unemployment  demographic  bubble  OAP  discretionary  spending  disposable  income  liberal  reform  Precariat  precarious  employment  low  pay  low  income  Minijob  Zeitarbeit  Leiharbeit  1  Euro  Job  Structural  Impediments  imbalance  unemployment  monetary  transmission  mechanism  monetary  union  union  Rechtsruck  Bundesbank  fault  lines  shareholder  capitalism  bailout  GFC  2016  PBOC  Exportweltmeister  zombie  Financial  Stability  Board  crony  capitalism  Deutsche  Bank  infrastructure  investment  competitiveness  Beton  Gold  Betongold  asset  allocation  Super  Rich  1%  oligarchy  plutocracy  democracy  tax  evasion  tax  avoidance  Wall  Street  shareholder  value  profit  maximisation  profit  maximization  Russia  Crimea  Ukraine  U 
april 2016 by asterisk2a
Ex-MPC member says rates will stay low until 2021 - BBC News
Blanchflower: Global economy "feels a little bit like 2008" Interest rates will likely fall further in Britain and remain at near record low levels until 2021, [...] Blanchflower described the backdrop to the committee's decision in March 2009 to cut rates to 0.5% as catastrophic. He said the MPC at the time had wished to avoid a death spiral. Britain was plunged into its deepest-ever recession in 2008 as confidence in banks collapsed and investment dried up. "We cut rates in November 2008 by 150 basis points (1.5%). It was clear that we should have cut by more but didn't because of the panic that it might have caused," he said. "It was absolutely clear that this (the financial crisis) was something we had not seen in a generation. We learned that the scale of the shock was enormous." [...] mortgage rates are 31% lower than before the crisis, while savers may have lost £106bn due to record low rates. //&! bbc.in/1YeqV87 &! bbc.in/1LGOxAf - central banks understated deflation pressure!
ZIRP  NIRP  QE  BOE  UK  global  economy  recovery  aggregate  demand  property  bubble  underinvestment  austerity  George  Osborne  speculative  bubbles  speculative  speculation  mortgage  market  macroprudential  policy  Mark  Carney  Help  to  Buy  Scheme  Help  to  Save  Right  to  Buy  Buy-to-Let  subprime  car  loan  credit  card  debt  zombie  consumer  zombie  corporations  zombie  banks  Richard  Koo  liquidity  trap  secular  stagnation  economic  history  GFC  household  debt  private  debt  consumer  debt  David  Blanchflower  Danny  Blanchflower  financial  repression  hunt  for  yield  asset  allocation  distortion  Super  Cycle  junk  bond  Gini  coefficient  deflationary  deflation  Taper  QT  monetary  policy  fiscal  policy  Pact  Schuldenbremse  BIS  ECB  Fed  BOJ  credit  bubble  PBOC  hot-money 
march 2016 by asterisk2a
Central bankers on the defensive as weird policy becomes even weirder | Business | The Guardian
Growth is tepid, productivity is poor, and inflation is too low: all is not going according to policymakers’ masterplans [...] As far as the OECD is concerned, monetary policy is being forced to take too much of the strain. Its chief economist Catherine Mann made the point that lasting recovery required three things: stimulative monetary policy; activist fiscal policy; and structural reform. The OECD wants the second of these ingredients to be added to the recipe in the form of increased spending on public infrastructure, something it says would more than pay for itself at a time when governments can borrow so cheaply.
monetary  policy  G20  fiscal  policy  monetary  stimulus  monetary  system  monetary  transmission  mechanism  liquidity  trap  UK  western  world  USA  Japan  Abenomics  George  Osborne  Angela  Merkel  Wolfgang  Schäuble  Pact  Schuldenbremse  economic  history  recovery  secular  stagnation  productivity  underinvestment  MarioDraghi  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  ECB  BOE  Fed  Taper  deflationary  deflation  nominal  GDP  targeting  inflation  targeting  zombie  banks  MervynKing  zombie  corporations  zombie  consumer  Richard  Koo  Gini  coefficient  inequality  squeezed  middle  class  wage  stagnation  discretionary  spending  distortion  property  bubble  disposable  income  productive  investment  austerity  business  confidence  foreign  direct  investment  consumer  debt  household  debt  credit  card  debt  car  loan  student  loan  debt  student  loan  policy  folly  policy  error  short-termism  Career  Politicians  neoliberalism  neoliberal  trickle-down  economics  self-regulation  City  of  London  investment  banking  retail  banking  OECD  IMF  KennethRogoff  hot-money  hunt  for  yield  asset  bubble  asset  allocation  speculative  bubbles  speculative  speculation  reflate  reflation  financial  repression  New  Normal  trust 
march 2016 by asterisk2a
Inflation: Vermögenspreise stiegen 2015 im Rekordtempo - SPIEGEL ONLINE
Wohl dem, der Immobilien, Anteile an Familienfirmen oder Sammlerobjekte besitzt. Die Preise für Vermögenswerte sind 2015 so stark gestiegen wie kaum je zuvor. Schlechter sieht es für Normalsparer aus.
financial  repression  distortion  hot-money  Betongold  Beton  Gold  Germany  speculative  speculation  asset  allocation  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  income  distribution  hunt  for  yield  property  bubble  UK  foreign  direct  investment  credit  bubble  reflate  reflation  monetary  policy  austerity  fiscal  policy  secular  stagnation  demographic  bubble  emerging  middle  class  equity  bubble  speculative  bubbles  economic  history 
february 2016 by asterisk2a
This Letting Agent Admits The Housing Shortage Is Good News For Landlords - BuzzFeed News
[ Lord Adair Turner book & Richard Koo; banks tend 2 lend 2 property & land rather than productivity/businesses. risk averse, if the family cant pay the mortgage any more, than at least u have not lost all the money! less risky! Its also partly rentier behaviour of banks. // also BOE has to be concerned about future disposable income; rent & utilities eating up 50%-75% of income thus less for consumption! ] “Landlords’ balance sheets are looking healthier than at any point since 2014, and property investors are looking at an excellent rate of return from their portfolios.” Gill warned that changes to stamp duty announced in chancellor George Osborne’s Autumn Statement and due to take effect on 1 April – people selling buy-to-let investments will pay an extra 3% – were bad news for landlords. But overall, the “consistent and developing lack of housing for across all tenures, for a spiralling population” meant the level of demand for rental properties would not reduce, he said.
property  bubble  speculative  bubbles  asset  bubble  asset  allocation  macroprudential  policy  Generationengerechtigkeit  generation  rent  Housing  Crisis  social  affordable  distortion  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  aggregate  demand  Right  to  Buy  Buy-to-Let  Help  to  Buy  Scheme  Help  to  Save  policy  folly  policy  error  consumer  debt  household  debt  budget  deficit  recovery  mortgage  market  credit  bubble  GFC  bank  bailout  BOE  zombie  banks  rentier  rent-seeking  Richard  Koo  underinvestment  productive  investment  infrastructure  investment  zombie  consumer  industrial  policy  economic  history  Mark  Carney  financial  repression  behavioral  finance  behavioral  economics  herding  herd  hunt  for  yield  leverage  margin  trading  equity  bubble  Gini  coefficient  disposable  income  discretionary  spending  VAR  CDO  CDS  risk  aversion  squeezed  middle  class  secular  stagnation  inequality  UK  generational  contract  lost  generation  constituency  Tories  Conservative  Party  nasty  David  Cameron  George  Osborne  general  election  2015  general  election  2020  fiscal  policy  austerity  monetary  policy  liquidity  trap 
february 2016 by asterisk2a
What Really Caused the Crisis and What to Do About It - YouTube
"There are not perfect markets, and there is no perfect planner. [...] we will never arrive at perfect solutions. [...] market will never allocate perfectly ... [...] market will always tend to lend to property and land, and less into productive means (businesses = risk of 100 loss, land or property ... you have a loss when you sell it. << China, UK ) [...] not all credit is good credit. [...] need for macroprudential policy to dampen bubbles bc rate hikes could dampen normal non-speculative area of economy. ie loan to value limits [...] interest rate setting is blunt hammer that people though is the magic wand along the line of self-regulation, free market, neoliberalism and trickle-down [...] GFC can be traced back to the 60-70's - macroecon + micro with absurd assumptions (ie rational expectations, equilibriums, no bubbles) & math & pure theoretical base (no empirical analysis ie of what banks really do ie greed) = makes job of economist as policy advisor real easy.
bank  crisis  JohnMaynardKeynes  keynes  Keynesianism  book  Richard  Koo  aggregate  demand  austerity  liquidity  trap  deleveraging  balance  sheet  recession  debtoverhang  GFC  recovery  secular  stagnation  western  world  dogma  ideology  underinvestment  productive  investment  infrastructure  investment  monetary  policy  monetary  theory  trickle-down  economics  neoliberalism  neoliberal  budget  deficit  economic  history  credit  bubble  output  gap  productivity  inflation  targeting  nominal  GDP  targeting  asset  allocation  economics  investment  banking  zombie  banks  retail  banking  financial  product  CDS  CDO  hunt  for  yield  VAR  risk  aversion  deflationary  deflation  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  debt  monetisation  debt  monetization  Glass-Steagall  self-regulation  regulators  regulation  leverage  margin  trading  property  bubble  arbitrage  speculative  bubbles  asset  bubble  UK  USA  Europe  ECB  Fed  BOE  zombie  consumer  squeezed  middle  class  zombie  corporations  NPL  junk  bond  realestate  macroprudential  policy  mortgage  market  equilibrium  disequilibrium  Economist  economists  Adair  Turner  hayek 
february 2016 by asterisk2a
Help-to-buy loan scheme nets Treasury £213m in paper profit | Money | The Guardian
[ gov is not co-owner of private property! Make away with Nurse Bursaries and other gov support for education. But support the property price! by keeping supply always lower than demand. and use policy to increase demand w subsidies! where to put their savings! & subsidy for builders ] Rising house prices across much of England mean a government scheme to help buyers of newbuild property may have made more than £200m for the Treasury in its first two-and-a-half years. The help-to-buy equity loan scheme gives buyers an interest-free loan for five years in return for a percentage stake in their property. When the home is sold, the buyer returns the same percentage of the sale price, meaning that any fall or rise in house prices affects the return. Analysis by property firm Hometrack and shared with the Guardian suggests that a surge in house prices in some areas means the total value of homes bought through the scheme since its launch in April 2013 has increased by more than £1bn.
property  bubble  UK  speculative  bubbles  Housing  Crisis  affordable  social  Help  to  Buy  Scheme  Right  to  Buy  Buy-to-Let  Help  to  Save  budget  deficit  austerity  constituency  Party  Funding  babyboomers  BOE  macroprudential  policy  mortgage  market  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  hunt  for  yield  distortion  financial  repression  household  debt  consumer  debt  credit  card  debt  Generationengerechtigkeit  generation  rent  fairness  asset  bubble  asset  allocation  NPL  subprime  Payday  Loans  car  loan  student  debt  student  loan  debt  student  loan  Tories  fiscal  policy  monetary  policy  policy  error  policy  folly  Conservative  Party  nasty  short-termism  voter  turnout  disenfranchise  disenfranchised  David  Cameron  George  Osborne  underinvestment  infrastructure  investment  productive  investment  recovery  Richard  Koo  balance  sheet  recession  deleveraging  debtoverhang  zombie  consumer  zombie  banks  zombie  corporations  secular  stagnation  Privatisation  trickle-down  economics  dogma  ideology  GFC  bank  bailout  subsidies  subsidizing  corporate  welfare 
february 2016 by asterisk2a
Inside How Mutual Funds Value Private Tech — The Information
The sudden and sizable valuation markdowns of high-flying private companies like Snapchat, Dropbox and Zenefits by mutual fund investors has been one of the biggest stories in tech, sowing fears that the market is deflating. They’ve also caused consternation among founders, who have had to defend their companies’ earlier valuations to employees.
downround  growth  round  Mutual  Fund  SPV  Uber  Zenefits  Snapchat  Silicon  Valley  DropBox  hunt  for  yield  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  speculative  bubbles  risk  capital  liquidation  preferences  termsheet  asset  allocation  distortion  Lyft  equity  bubble  reflate  reflation  financial  repression  New  Normal  secular  stagnation  hot-money  BRIC  emerging  market  Frontier  Markets 
february 2016 by asterisk2a
The "Tourist" Investors Flooding Silicon Valley With Money Will Go Home One Day - BuzzFeed News
The tourist analogy comes from Mohamed El-Erian, chief economic advisor at the German financial company Allianz and former CEO of mutual fund giant Pimco. He fleshes out his theory of “tourist dollars” in his new book, The Only Game in Town: Central Banks, Instability, and Avoiding the Next Collapse, describing what happens in emerging economies like Brazil and India when investors from the developed world respond to slow economies at home by seeking more profitable climates abroad. Ranjan Roy, a former emerging-market currencies trader who now runs a tech startup, wrote a Medium post this week connecting El-Erian’s “tourist” theory to the mutual fund investors that have flooded Silicon Valley with cash in recent years. The post was pretty convincing, so we decided to see if El-Erian agreed. He does. And he worries about what those tourist dollars are doing to the locals. [...] they don’t re-up [ like VC's and real Angels would do ] [...] push to stretch for return.
hunt  for  yield  distortion  speculative  bubbles  asset  allocation  Silicon  Valley  Party  Round  Angel  Investor  Seed  Round  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  hot-money  Mutual  Fund  growth  risk  capital  Venture  Frontier  Markets  emerging  market  credit  bubble  China  BRIC  2015  2016  2014  Unicorn  reflate  reflation  economic  history  equity  bubble  bond  bubble  property  bubble  asset  bubble  secular  stagnation  emerging  middle  class  India  financial  repression  behavioral  finance  behavioral  economics  psychology  fiscal  policy  monetary  policy  austerity  Richard  Koo 
february 2016 by asterisk2a
Housing: Corbyn and Cameron clash over 'right-to-buy' - BBC News
[ micro/macro econ policy folly / error to promote home ownership. the only asset of UK households hold ... has to be kept afloat! by any means necessary. + Help to Buy ] The way the government intends to pay for its plans to allow social tenants in England to buy their homes is "extremely questionable", MPs say. The Commons Communities Committee criticised the funding model for the right-to-buy scheme, which will see housing associations reimbursed for selling homes to tenants at discounts. [ AND WITH THE MONEY THEY WANT TO BUILT STARTER HOMES FOR THE 30-20% of UK HOUSEHOLDS THAT CAN AFFORD A DOWN PAYMENT OF A 250-400k HOME. ] &! bit.ly/1hpXShr - PM will promise to tear up planning rules in effort to encourage developers to build more housing for first-time buyers //&! Buy to Rent w its tax breaks is a subsidy for privileged! & MPs say it should be paid for directly rather than via council house sales. Ministers say it will help create a million new homeowners by 2020.
Right  to  Buy  property  bubble  asset  allocation  household  debt  consumer  debt  credit  card  debt  car  loan  mortgage  market  affordable  housing  social  housing  Starter  Home  Crisis  David  Cameron  Tories  nasty  party  Conservative  short-termism  constituency  Funding  general  election  2020  general  election  2015  election  campaign  promises  Manifesto  generation  rent  Generationengerechtigkeit  speculative  bubbles  aggregate  demand  Supply  and  and  Supply  macroprudential  policy  Buy  to  subsidies  subsidizing  Help  to  Buy  Scheme  Privatisation 
february 2016 by asterisk2a
'Panic situation': Asian stocks tumble amid fears of new global recession | Business | The Guardian
central banks have few avenues left to explore to encourage investment and boost growth. Talk of an impending recession in the US, however, is creating speculation among investors that the federal reserve will put on hold its attempts to normalise rates. “The ‘fear factor’ in markets has morphed from being about an emerging market hard-landing and collapsing oil prices to being about the extent of the slowdown in the developed world and the ability of central banks to reflate asset values yet again,” said analysts at Citi in a note. //&! Yield on Japan's 10-year bonds falls below zero - bit.ly/1Leu3JC - Germany, France and the Netherlands are among the countries to see their bonds soar in value, though Switzerland (not in the G7) is the only other country to see demand outstrip supply to such an extent that the yield has dropped below zero. Bonds worth about $7tn (£4.8tn) now have a negative yield rate. //&! BOE Taper expectations go out the window till 2020 - bit.ly/1SdxUhN
global  economy  2016  secular  stagnation  austerity  monetary  policy  fiscal  policy  Taper  ZIRP  QE  NIRP  liquidity  trap  western  world  credit  bubble  China  BRIC  Oil  price  emerging  middle  class  squeezed  middle  class  household  debt  consumer  debt  debtoverhang  deleveraging  balance  sheet  recession  Richard  Koo  USA  UK  Europe  economic  history  credit  card  debt  car  loan  debt  servitude  disposable  income  discretionary  spending  credit  reflate  reflation  VIX  volatility  speculative  bubbles  property  bubble  distortion  asset  allocation  equity  bubble  hunt  for  yield  IMF  OECD  Frontier  Markets  emerging  market  bond  bubble  Fed  BOE  ECB  Abenomics  BOJ 
february 2016 by asterisk2a
GLS-Bank: Kunden sollen Monatsbeitrag zahlen - SPIEGEL ONLINE
Zinsen spielen bei der Geldanlage fast keine Rolle mehr. Die Ökobank GLS erwägt jetzt einen radikalen Schritt: Die Kunden sollen einen Monatsbeitrag zahlen, damit die Bank nicht in fragwürdige Geschäfte gedrängt wird.
NIRP  ZIRP  financial  repression  New  Normal  speculative  bubbles  asset  allocation  distortion  economic  history  liquidity  trap 
february 2016 by asterisk2a
Amid market turmoil and confusion, there are four key economic trends shaping society
The UK economy currently gets nowhere near its target of 2%. Inflation would decrease the value of current debts, making them less of a burden. In a world without much inflation, it is hard to get wages up. The worse case scenario is that debt costs increase, as prices and wages stagnate. [ ignoring debt and income growth - stagnation at their peril - youtu.be/KIaXVntqlUE - gov is no household budget, Steve Keen + Richard Koo ] [...] And in this age of austerity, these factors will work against governments seeking to reduce the welfare bill. Recent data shows that, in UK cities, growing numbers of low paid jobs have led to rising claims for welfare such as housing benefits, defeating the government’s aims to reduce spending.
economic  history  secular  stagnation  inflation  targeting  nominal  GDP  targeting  fiscal  policy  monetary  policy  inflation  wage  growth  wage  stagnation  squeezed  middle  class  job  creation  Service  Sector  Jobs  low  pay  low  income  minimum  wage  UK  Mark  Carney  austerity  tax  credit  housing  benefit  working  tax  credit  debt  servitude  Super  Cycle  Richard  Koo  liquidity  trap  monetary  transmission  mechanism  monetary  stimulus  debtoverhang  balance  sheet  recession  deleveraging  household  debt  consumer  debt  credit  card  debt  western  world  GDP  wage  inflation  income  growth  disposable  income  discretionary  spending  income  distribution  Gini  coefficient  Super  Rich  1%  inequality  income  inequality  income  redistribution  tax  evasion  tax  avoidance  monetary  system  monetary  theory  student  debt  student  loan  debt  student  loan  Bubble  debt  monetisation  debt  monetization  zombie  banks  monetary  velocity  Niall  Ferguson  NPL  junk  bond  zombie  corporations  zombie  consumer  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  Taper  China  credit  BRIC  output  gap  productivity  industrial  policy  public  investment  productive  investment  business  investment  infrastructure  investment  property  financial  repression  speculative  bubbles  asset  allocation  Generationengerechtigkeit  fairness  money  supply  faultlines  global  imbalances  recovery  working  poor  Precariat 
february 2016 by asterisk2a
Bank of Japan shocks markets by adopting negative interest rates | World news | The Guardian
BOJ shock decision to adopt negative interest rates, in an attempt to protect the flagging economy from market volatility and fears over the global economy. In a 5-4 vote, the bank’s board imposed a 0.1% fee on deposits left with the Bank of Japan (BoJ) – in effect a negative interest rate. The move, which follows the similarly aggressive precedent set by the ECB in June 2014, is designed to encourage commercial banks to use excess reserves they keep with the central bank to lend to businesses. //&! The Disturbing Reasons Why The Bank Of Japan Stunned Everyone With Negative Rates - bit.ly/1UvpOyO - encouraging capex, supporting existing bubbles ie equity and bonds (joining draghi). Citing examples of Sweden and Switzerland with NIRP. And ECB of combining QE and NIRP. Combating China exporting deflation. And keep the pace of JGB purchases, keeping the bubble floating. [A] "last-ditch measure"[.] [I]t may be time to panic. - 2016/2017 //&! Currency War - bit.ly/1QwOGox
ECB  BOJ  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  debt  monetisation  debt  monetization  monetary  policy  monetary  transmission  mechanism  monetary  theory  unconventional  monetary  policy  monetary  stimulus  monetary  system  deposit  levy  MarioDraghi  Abenomics  economic  history  deleveraging  debtoverhang  balance  sheet  recession  GFC  recovery  Yen  Euro  credit  bubble  liquidity  trap  distortion  asset  bubble  asset  allocation  equity  bubble  speculative  bubbles  bond  bubble  property  bubble  debt  bubble  New  Normal  financial  repression  faultlines  global  economy  structural  imbalance  global  imbalances  demographic  bubble  ageing  population  Japan  UK  secular  stagnation  western  world  inflation  expectation  inflation  targeting  nominal  GDP  targeting  deflation  Sweden  Switzerland  China  Yuan  JGB  2016  USA  Europe  sovereign  debt  crisis  austerity  business  confidence  consumer  confidence  Super  Cycle  recession  currency-war  currency  debasement  currency  war 
january 2016 by asterisk2a
Pando: Two slides that could predict a worse quarter for venture capital is coming
All of 2015’s totals lived and died on mega-deals. Mega-deals were the reason that the total amount invested in the year was one of the highest on record, even though the actual number of deals fell. It’s the reason the fourth quarter’s venture capital total fell so sharply when mega deals declined some 45%. //&! As America faces the techpocalypse, how are things going in Europe? - bit.ly/1ndNFZt //&! If Doordash is struggling to close funding with Sequoia as a lead, how bad are things at your startup? - bit.ly/1njD8v9 - Doordash is a fundable company, just not at the prices originally discussed… and maybe not even at $600 million. //&! Asian venture capital in 2016: This could get ugly… - It has the farthest to fall, and the newest investors - bit.ly/1Pg8vla
growth  round  Venture  Capital  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  distortion  Silicon  Valley  Private  Equity  Mutual  Fund  Angel  Investor  Seed  Party  Private  Market  Hype  Cycle  Unicorn  China  credit  bubble  monetary  policy  liquidity  trap  speculative  bubbles  asset  bubble  asset  allocation  QT  Software  Is  Eating  The  World  mobile  homescreen 
january 2016 by asterisk2a
The Deflation Monster Has Arrived | Zero Hedge
the world’s grand experiment with debt has come to an end. And it’s now unraveling. [...] The next thing is to give money to Main Street. [...] Either way, money will be printed out of thin air and given to you. That’s what’s coming next. Possibly after a failed attempt at demanding negative interest rates from the banks. But coming it is. [...] Once people lose faith in their currency all bets are off. The smart people will be those who take their fresh central bank money and spend it before the next guy.
deflationary  deflation  debt  servitude  credit  bubble  squeezed  middle  class  working  poor  secular  stagnation  UK  USA  Europe  western  world  Precariat  precarious  work  household  debt  Richard  Koo  GFC  China  recovery  property  bubble  subprime  economic  history  neoliberalism  neoliberal  Wall  Street  shareholder  value  profit  maximisation  capitalism  crony  capitalism  exploitation  Super  Cycle  consumer  debt  credit  card  debt  car  loan  student  loan  debt  debtoverhang  NPL  sovereign  debt  crisis  private  debt  debt  monetisation  debt  monetization  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  bank  bailout  distortion  capital  allocation  asset  allocation  speculative  bubbles  financial  repression  2016  2015  fiscal  policy  monetary  policy  fiat  money  fiat  currency  trust  distrust  trustagent 
january 2016 by asterisk2a
Börsenabsturz in China: Der Kontrollverlust - Kommentar - SPIEGEL ONLINE
Der Börsen-Crash in China ist Symptom eines fundamentalen Wandels: Um den Wohlstand zu erhalten, muss die Regierung immer mehr Kontrolle abgeben. Die Allmacht der kommunistischen Partei gerät ins Wanken.
China  economic  history  SRD  Yuan  macroeconomic  policy  microeconomic  policy  corruption  bribery  regulation  regulators  liberal  economic  reform  economic  refugee  inequality  IMF  AIIB  World  Bank  Hegemony  PBOC  Gini  coefficient  social  safety  net  Services  Public  Services  discretionary  spending  disposable  income  pension  scheme  pension  pension  fund  asset  allocation  capital  allocation  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  credit  bubble  QT  monetary  policy  fiscal  policy  shadow  banking  NPL  2015  2016  shadow  economy  demographic  bubble 
january 2016 by asterisk2a
Profit mean reversion and recession | Credit Writedowns
We are now in the seventh year of a cyclical recovery and bull market. Shares have tripled in that time frame. I would say this means we are much closer to the end of the business cycle than the beginning. Moreover, as Jeremy Grantham is quoted in the Business Insider piece, profits are mean-reverting and right now they are reverting from a phase that is “wildly optimistic” according to Warren Buffett. All of this is taking place against the backdrop of an economy in which wage growth is weak, household debt is still relatively high on a historic basis as a percentage of income and we have no policy room on the monetary side, with limited political appetite for policy on the fiscal side. To me, the pre-conditions for this profits recession speak to downside risk, ....
recovery  business  cycle  financial  cycle  private  debt  household  debt  consumer  debt  Student  Loan  Bubble  car  credit  card  debt  deleveraging  Richard  Koo  debtoverhang  austerity  fiscal  policy  economic  history  monetary  policy  job  creation  Service  Sector  Jobs  western  world  secular  stagnation  Niall  Ferguson  wage  stagnation  wage  growth  income  distribution  Gini  coefficient  inequality  trickle-down  economics  neoliberalism  neoliberal  Wall  Street  bank  bailout  budget  deficit  UK  USA  Schuldenbremse  Pact  sovereign  debt  crisis  Positioning  mainstreet.org  Germany  disposable  income  discretionary  spending  income  growth  low  income  crony  capitalism  reflate  reflation  Career  Politicians  constituency  fairness  Generationengerechtigkeit  Niedriglohnsektor  lobbyist  lobby  Lobbying  corporate  welfare  tax  evasion  tax  avoidance  income  inequality  social  mobility  social  contract  political  theory  income  mobility  Standard  American  Diet  equity  credit  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  BRIC  BOE  Fed  Fed  mandate  BOJ  PBOC  distortion  2015  ECB  Super  debt  servitude  zombie  consumer  zombie  banks  zombie  corporations  junk  bond  Taper  QT  irrational  exuberance  asset  allocation  capital  allocation  speculative  bubbles  commodity  prices  Oil  price  inflation  expe 
october 2015 by asterisk2a
IMF warns of new financial crisis if interest rates rise | Business | The Guardian
Fund says governments in emerging markets should prepare now for a new credit crunch because of a 10-year corporate borrowing binge [...] “Shocks to the corporate sector could quickly spill over to the financial sector and generate a vicious cycle as banks curtail lending. Decreased loan supply would then lower aggregate demand and collateral values, further reducing access to finance and thereby economic activity, and in turn, increasing losses to the financial sector,” the IMF warns. [...] “Emerging markets must prepare for the adverse domestic stability implications of global financial tightening,” the IMF says.
credit  bubble  2015  Taper  centralbanks  IMF  OECD  Frontier  Markets  Developing  World  Richard  Koo  Debt  Super  Cycle  BRIC  AIIB  World  Bank  recovery  global  economy  global  trade  globalization  globalisation  flat  borderless  currency-war  currency  debasement  currency  war  BOE  BOJ  Abenomics  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  unknown  unkown  unintended  consequences  FOMO  asset  allocation  capital  allocation  malinvestment  speculative  bubbles  property  bubble  China  Brazil  commodity  prices  Oil  price  OPEC  reflate  reflation  equity  bubble  emerging  middle  class  demographic  bubble  secular  stagnation  western  UK  USA  Europe  Germany  austerity  divergence  faultlines  Structural  Impediments  imbalance  Niall  Ferguson  Fed  mandate  monetary  policy  unconventional  monetary  policy  zombie  consumer  zombie  banks  bailout  banking  crisis  crisis  fiscal  policy  fiscal  stimulus  economic  history  trickle-down  economics  tax  avoidance  tax  evasion  inequality  Gini  coefficient  NPL  shadow  banking  zombie  corporations  junk  bond  creditrating  distortion  financial  financial  crisis  GFC 
september 2015 by asterisk2a
Fed chief Yellen says US rate rise still likely this year - BBC News
The US remains "on track" for an interest rate rise this year, Federal Reserve chief Janet Yellen has said. The central bank head said as long as inflation was stable and the US economy was strong enough to boost jobs, the conditions would be right for a rise. Despite expectations of a rise this month, the Fed held rates, in part due to fears about global economic growth. Ms Yellen, speaking at the University of Massachusetts, said US economic prospects "generally appear solid". Speaking a week after the Fed delayed that long-anticipated hike, she said she and other policymakers did not expect recent global economic and financial market developments to significantly affect the central bank's policy. Much recent inflationary weakness is due to special and likely temporary factors, such as a strong dollar and low oil prices, she said. //&! http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2015-09-25/janet-yellen-s-flip-flop-confuses-markets
Janet  Yellen  Fed  Fed  mandate  inflation  expectation  inflation  targeting  secular  stagnation  western  world  centralbanks  QE  ZIRP  NIRP  Taper  QT  petrodollar  Petroleum  Industry  commodity  prices  China  credit  bubble  BRIC  Brazil  Russia  India  BIS  Richard  Koo  global  economy  global  trade  2015  BOE  monetary  policy  unconventional  monetary  policy  debtoverhang  household  debt  consumer  debt  private  debt  credit  card  car  loan  Student  deleveraging  faultlines  Structural  Impediments  imbalance  wage  stagnation  wage  growth  squeezed  middle  class  disposable  income  discretionary  spending  income  growth  low  income  income  distribution  inequality  Gini  coefficient  Service  Sector  Jobs  job  creation  job  market  labour  economics  labour  market  Niedriglohnsektor  competitive  competition  flat  world  borderless  globalization  globalisation  recovery  fiscal  policy  underinvestment  productive  investment  asset  bubble  FOMO  hunt  for  yield  Super  Rich  1%  hot-money  currency-war  currency  war  currency  debasement  Dollar  speculative  bubbles  asset  allocation  equity  bubble  distortion  irrational  exuberance  property  bubble  macroprudential  policy  USA  UK 
september 2015 by asterisk2a
The other generation rent: meet the people flatsharing in their 40s | Money | The Guardian
Number of flatsharers aged 45-54 has risen by 300% in five years, figures show, amid soaring house prices, especially in London [...] Photographer Alex Forsey, 44, is typical of the new generation of flatsharers in their 40s. He recently moved into a house in Clapton, east London, with three other people in their 20s to 40s. He said: “The most affordable one-bed flat I was shown was £1,200 a month, and it was worse than a squat. The agent tried telling me it was a bargain.” //&! ability to get interest only loan is unbelievable.
generation  rent  London  property  bubble  Supply  and  Demand  Demand  and  Supply  UK  distortion  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  asset  allocation  asset  bubble  alternative  investment  Buy  to  Help  to  Buy  Scheme  Funding  for  Lending  Scheme  excess  reserves  mortgage  market  2015  macroprudential  policy  macroeconomic  policy  microeconomic  policy  BOE  NPL  subprime  cost  of  living  cost  of  entry  living  standard  living  spaces  standard  of  living  air  pollution  noise  pollution  city  living  urbanisation  economies  of  agglomeration 
september 2015 by asterisk2a
Zumper: One-Third Of San Francisco’s Rent Is Attributable To VC Funding | TechCrunch
[capital efficiency?] // the other 1/4th is bidding up via credit bubble riches, diversification. other 2/4ths from planning restriction and natural biz cycle of sv //&! http://www.thebolditalic.com/articles/7266-an-open-letter-to-anyone-moving-to-san-francisco-for-a-tech-job - For context, people are right to be angry; shit is certainly fucked up. Since 2010, rents have risen by 40%, and eviction rates have risen by 38%—two rapid changes that have had very visual consequences all across the city. Much of SoMa, for instance, looks like an elephant graveyard. Sidewalks look like the surface of the moon; alleys are littered with broken glass; and streets are strewn with sleeping persons and human shit. All of this can be observed from in the shade of the brand-new office buildings and luxury condos that now line the streets everywhere east of 4th Street. [...] those who move to San Francisco and don’t engage with the community dilute and adulterate San Francisco’s sense of character.
San  Francisco  Venture  Capital  cost  of  living  cost  of  entry  standard  of  living  city  living  burn  rate  New  York  Start-Up  Scene  London  Scene  runway  Networking  Network  economies  of  agglomeration  ecosystem  community  gentrification  Gentrified  speculative  bubbles  property  bubble  credit  bubble  BRIC  QE  ZIRP  hunt  for  yield  FOMO  NIRP  centralbanks  asset  allocation  alternative  investment  allocation 
september 2015 by asterisk2a
Bank of England may cut rates, says chief economist - BBC News
Softening employment figures and weakening surveys on manufacturing and construction output suggested growth in the UK could slow in the second half of the year and inflation might not pick up as expected. Furthermore, problems in emerging markets could be a drag on UK growth and the headwinds from those economies were unlikely to abate any time soon, Mr Haldane added. //&! In a wide-ranging speech that called on central bankers to think more radically to fend off the next downturn – including the notion of abolishing cash – Haldane warned the UK was not ready for higher borrowing costs. He described recent events in Greece and China as "the latest leg of what might be called a three-part crisis trilogy."
China  sovereign  debt  crisis  European  Union  BRIC  credit  bubble  2015  headwinds  Fed  mandate  BOE  bond  bubble  Taper  Richard  Koo  fiscal  policy  austerity  monetary  policy  QE  ZIRP  NIRP  QT  British  Pound  Sterling  Dollar  petrodollar  FX  reserves  excess  reserves  liquidity  trap  GFC  economic  history  trickle-down  economics  Pact  Schuldenbremse  George  Osborne  budget2015  David  Cameron  industrial  policy  underinvestment  infrastructure  investment  productivity  output  gap  STEM  Research  competitiveness  competitive  differentiate  differentiation  shadow  banking  banking  crisis  leverage  margin  trading  speculative  bubbles  property  bubble  asset  allocation  capital  allocation  asset  bubble  hunt  for  yield  FOMO  equity  bubble  Gini  coefficient  inequality  social  mobility  crony  capitalism  Wall  Street  business  confidence  business  investment  profit  maximisation  shareholder  value  share  buyback  Niall  Ferguson  secular  stagnation  western  world  deflationary  deflation  macroprudential  policy  microeconomic  policy  education  policy  fairness  Generationengerechtigkeit  bank  bailout  tax  evasion  tax  avoidance  tax  code  corporate  tax  rate  short-term  thinking  short-term  view  monetary  transmission  mechanism  monetary  stimulus  monetary  policy  monetary  monetary  debt  unconve 
september 2015 by asterisk2a
Weltwirtschaft: BIZ warnt vor Krediten in Schwellenländern - SPIEGEL ONLINE
Die Bank für Internationalen Zahlungsausgleich sieht Alarmzeichen für Banken in vielen Schwellenländern. Die Kreditvergabe in China, Brasilien oder der Türkei habe ein bedrohliches Verhältnis angenommen, warnt die Notenbank. // &! Die Welt steuert auf den Bankrott zu (QE trap): Eine vorläufige Antwort: Das tieferliegende Problem besteht darin, dass sich die Weltwirtschaft insgesamt auf den Bankrott zubewegt - und das wird umso schneller gehen, je höher die Zinsen sind und je niedriger die Preissteigerungsraten.
BIS  credit  bubble  2015  China  BRIC  NPL  shadow  banking  junk  bond  creditrating  banking  crisis  excess  reserves  QE  ZIRP  NIRP  hot-money  currency-war  currency  debasement  currency  war  centralbanks  economic  history  hunt  for  yield  FOMO  speculative  bubbles  FX  reserves  Turkey  Brazil  Developing  World  Fed  distortion  unknown  unkown  unintended  consequences  Raghuram  Rajan  BOE  BOJ  Abenomics  PBOC  ECB  emerging  market  emerging  middle  class  AIIB  Asia  South  Africa  Latin  America  deflationary  deflation  secular  stagnation  western  Niall  Ferguson  globalization  globalisation  wage  stagnation  disposable  income  income  distribution  income  inequality  income  growth  income  mobility  income  gap  wage  growth  GFC  recovery  fiscal  policy  monetary  policy  austerity  Pact  European  Union  UK  USA  Richard  Koo  Joseph  Stiglitz  Paul  Krugman  dogma  ideology  Fed  mandate  inflation  targeting  New  Normal  bond  bubble  QE  trap  liquidity  trap  reflate  reflation  asset  bubble  asset  allocation  property  bubble  capital  allocation  QT  debt  monetisation  debt  monetization  trickle-down  economics  marginal  cost  economics  of  abundance  digital  economy  Software  Is  Eating  The  World  World  Bank  IMF  savings  glut  faultlines  structural  imbalance  Impediments  Super  Cycle  debt  ser 
september 2015 by asterisk2a
Is Global Economic Doubt Behind the Unchanged Rate? - YouTube
youtu.be/f5_AGIMe32k // much higher $ already put ~25bps on US domestic market. // Fed is a risk manager now // labour market got a check mark, but not inflation bc of tech, stronger$ (taper anticipation), commodities lower, further deflationary pressures (retail price fighting 4 increase like4like sales), globalisation (competition), secular stagnation (continued low growth in western world, lower aggregate demand overall, lower baseline), consumer unable 2pickup where it threw in hat (deleveraging, no savings, debt overhang household, consumer). A new normal of growth of ~3% (give/take) globally aggregate & western wrld (2-2.5%, EU aggregate even lower). In this world, THERE WILL BE NO INFLATION PRESSURE (2% or higher, &3bn ppl free labour wrldwide) IN THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE AS THE REAL ECONOMY 4 EVERY DAY FOLK DOESNT REFLECT REFLATED ASSET PRICES via QE, ZIRP, credit bubbles arnd world enabled by central banks. &! youtu.be/NVa5fkz8X0o &! youtu.be/Ny3bbonX3d0 &! 1.usa.gov/1JdKZxp
Taper  Fed  Fed  mandate  2015  inflation  expectation  inflation  targeting  Janet  Yellen  participation  rate  employment  underemployed  full  employment  unemployment  structural  unemployment  USA  China  BRIC  credit  bubble  complexity  global  economy  New  Normal  hunt  for  yield  asset  allocation  asset  bubble  reflate  reflation  equity  bubble  property  bubble  BIS  centralbanks  QE  ZIRP  NIRP  distortion  secular  stagnation  western  world  Richard  Koo  deleveraging  balance  sheet  recession  debtoverhang  private  debt  household  debt  consumer  debt  student  loan  debt  student  loan  student  debt  debt  servitude  marginal  propensity  to  consume  Super  Rich  1%  faultlines  savings  glut  Impediments  structural  imbalance  inequality  Gini  coefficient  income  distribution  income  growth  low  income  disposable  income  income  inequality  income  mobility  wage  stagnation  wage  growth  UK  BOE  squeezed  middle  class  job  creation  job  security  labour  market  recovery  policy  response  fiscal  policy  austerity  Schuldenbremse  Pact  monetary  policy  monetary  transmission  mechanism  excess  reserves  business  confidence  consumer  confidence  business  investment  underinvestment  productive  investment  infrastructure  investment 
september 2015 by asterisk2a
Jim Grant: The Fed Turned the Stock Market Into a 'Hall of Mirrors' - YouTube
- bull market in equities not reflective of real fundamentals on the side of the consumer (aggregate demand, marginal propensity to consume). can not pick up the tab. inequality also does not help.
equity  bubble  frothy  distortion  USA  Fed  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  credit  bubble  BRIC  BOE  ECB  excess  reserves  correction  2015  BOJ  reflate  reflation  Abenomics  hunt  for  yield  recovery  GFC  Taper  FOMO  asset  allocation  capital  allocation  behavioral  finance  behavioral  economics  fiscal  policy  austerity  western  world  developed  world  secular  stagnation  disposable  income  income  distribution  income  growth  low  income  income  gap  consumer  confidence  business  confidence  business  investment  underinvestment  hot-money  speculative  bubbles  speculative  speculation  currency-war  currency  debasement  currency  war  property  bubble  Richard  Koo  monetary  stimulus  monetary  policy  fiat  currency  monetary  transmission  mechanism  liquidity  trap  Pact  Schuldenbremse  Europe  UK  Japan  Germany  marginal  propensity  to  consume  consumer  debt  household  debt  job  creation  job  security  working  poor  inequality  Gini  coefficient  Sozialer  Abstieg  squeezed  middle  class  precarious  work  wage  growth  wage  stagnation  income  inequality  income  mobility  Super  Rich  1%  bank  bailout  banking  crisis  sovereign  debt  crisis  Polarisation  Career  Politicians  dogma  ideology  crony  capitalism 
september 2015 by asterisk2a
Brazil's downgrade | Authers' Note - YouTube
- 6 killer apps not yet properly installed. - // and still dependent on western world demand! aggregate demand via western consumer. // credit bubble and ZIRP/NIRP/QE has run its way largely // private sector could not pick up recovery. no appetite. same for SME SMB mittelstand. excess reserves not lend out because the horse has to drink by itself, can't make the drink. // especially when it has no means to served future credit interest payment coupons and principal repayment with no income growth! for decades. // inequality huts, middle class destoryed. - Career Politicans, Fear, polarisation, inequality, gini coefficient, zeit arbeit, leiharbeit, self-employment, working conditions, ...sozialer abstieg, squeezed middle class, ... insecurity, cloudy future, richard koo: austerity isn't helping!
Brazil  BRIC  Developing  World  China  credit  bubble  Latin  America  India  Russia  South  Africa  2015  Niall  Ferguson  NiallFerguson  recovery  GFC  QE  ZIRP  NIRP  distortion  emerging  middle  class  western  aggregate  demand  Supply  and  and  Supply  economic  history  Richard  Koo  monetary  policy  monetary  stimulus  monetary  transmission  mechanism  monetary  theory  globalization  globalisation  hunt  for  yield  FOMO  frothy  correction  equity  bubble  speculative  bubbles  speculative  speculation  property  bubble  asset  allocation  capital  allocation  hot-money  currency-war  currency  debasement  currency  war  Fed  BOE  BOJ  Abenomics  ECB  PBOC  banking  crisis  bank  bailout  austerity  UK  USA  Europe  Fiscal  Pact  Schuldenbremse  policy  consolidation  trickle-down  economics  neoliberalism  neoliberal  income  growth  disposable  income  discretionary  spending  low  income  job  creation  labour  market  wage  growth  secular  stagnation  wage  stagnation  income  distribution  Super  Rich  1%  marginal  propensity  to  consume  consumer  debt  household  debt  business  investment  business  confidence  global  trade  global  economy  global  imbalances  Structural  Impediments  imbalance  underemployed  participation  rate  productivity  output  gap  macroeconomic  policy  policy  job  microeconomi 
september 2015 by asterisk2a
World Bank warns on US rate rise - BBC News
[ game of chicken ] [ can private sector carry forward the little bit of recovery/growth the western world got in a rising interest rate world, that will eat away spending bc of higher repayment rates amid little to no wage growth !!! ] [W]arned developing countries to brace themselves for possible financial turbulence when the US Federal Reserve starts to raise interest rates. It could come as early as Thursday when the Fed concludes a policy meeting. A new report from the World Bank says there will probably be a modest impact on developing countries. But it also warns there is some risk that it could be worse. The Bank says it is possible that there would be sufficient disruption to capital flows into developing countries to harm economic growth and financial stability. //&! bit.ly/1QhP6Of //&! youtu.be/G8lCqhCbrA4 //&! youtu.be/KH1UlvgXqTE = bond sell-off move in anticipation of Taper. //&! strength of dollar added already 25bps - youtu.be/zWrxFszwrsQ &! youtu.be/lpTkQqEQmE4
Taper  Fed  BOE  2015  BIS  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  Richard  Koo  reflate  reflation  asset  bubble  hunt  for  yield  FOMO  frothy  World  Bank  distortion  unknown  unkown  unintended  consequences  capital  allocation  asset  allocation  speculative  bubbles  speculative  speculation  monetary  policy  monetary  transmission  mechanism  liquidity  trap  monetary  theory  GFC  recovery  credit  bubble  China  BRIC  Brazil  India  South  Africa  Russia  Europe  UK  BOJ  Abenomics  liquidity  credit  squeeze  excess  reserves  PBOC  economic  history  creditcrunch  credit  crunch  ECB  commodity  prices  energy  price  Oil  price  OPEC  petrodollar  QT  FX  reserves  global  trade  New  Normal  secular  stagnation  faultlines  Structural  Impediments  imbalance  western  deflationary  deflation  austerity  fiscal  policy  monetary  stimulus  monetary  system  debt  monetisation  debt  monetization  unconventional  monetary  policy  debtoverhang  refinancing  creditrating  creditrisk  deleveraging  private  debt  household  debt  disposable  income  discretionary  spending  wage  stagnation  wage  growth  income  growth  income  distribution  low  income  inequality  Gini  coefficient  squeezed  middle  class  downward  mobility  working  poor  precarious  work  Zero  Hour  Contract  Contractor  self-employment  Zeitarbeit  Leiharbeit  Sozialer  Abstieg  j 
september 2015 by asterisk2a
Pando: Good news! B rounds have doubled in value over five years!
B Round! doubling down on (to a certain point) proven ideas as they move to make themselves solid/viable (building business model & continued growth if not even putting some more gasoline on the fire with a B Round - allocation of resources). thus there is competition thus bidding up in a private market. BUT BUT also reflects the rising cost! Rising cost to grow, the war for talent to scale, and the cost in said hubs/ecosystems where the talent are already working on scaling other companies, where rent is sky high and space rare to expand office, ops, ramp up head count, ... // why, on a side note!, ? because global ZIRP, NIRP, QE, hunt for yield, FOMO, property speculation, alternative asset management and allocation (newly minted paper millionaers) have bid up prices in metropolitan and hot cities by credit bubbles around the world. bc financial markets are global, thus your allocation/diversification is global, not limited where ur home addr is. adding to volatiliy too bc of froth!
Silicon  Valley  Seed  Round  Party  Round  SPV  Venture  Capital  Private  Market  FOMO  hunt  for  yield  B  Round  A  Round  growth  Private  Equity  Hedge  Fund  Angel  Investor  Micro  VC  2015  cost  of  living  credit  bubble  cost  of  entry  aspirational  leverage  margin  trading  asset  bubble  asset  allocation  distortion  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  BOE  BOJ  Abenomics  PBOC  Fed  unintended  consequences  burn  rate  runway  ECB  Mutual  Fund  unknown  unkown  inflation  targeting  Fed  mandate  inflation  expectation  secular  stagnation  deflationary  deflation  economic  growth  speculative  bubbles  speculative  speculation  reflate  reflation  monetary  policy  unconventional  monetary  policy  financial  financial  repression  western  world  Developing  BRIC  emerging  complexity  incomplete  information 
september 2015 by asterisk2a
Raghuram Rajan - One-on-One: an investigative interview - 44th St. Gallen Symposium - YouTube
Relying too much on the wrong instrument, monetary policy, unconventional QE2 & 3 >> little domestic positive impact but spilled over much across the world! // consequences now seen (1) taper tantrum late 2014 & then summer 2015; china slow-down/equity crash & taper anticipation moves followed up by pulling money out of emerging/developing markets! financial market are divergent from domestic business market. cycles shifted apart slightly. investor, business, financial market & consumer confidence are not linked as tightly before! // financial markets are now global, business markets itself not as much! money can be pulled out digitally in an instance. // no net-positive 4 whole world. selfishness. long-run danger. unintended consequences, unknown unknowns. // global sub-optimal monetary policy // global system (monetary system) broke // uncertainty, unknown of taper. timing debate. game of chicken. volatility bc of lots of froth, distortion! // &! youtu.be/SZe3issLIb8
Raghuram  Rajan  BIS  centralbanks  hot-money  currency-war  currency  debasement  currency  war  GFC  recovery  monetary  policy  QE  ZIRP  NIRP  excess  reserves  speculative  bubbles  reflate  reflation  economic  history  faultlines  credit  bubble  BRIC  2015  emerging  market  Developing  World  western  secular  stagnation  BOJ  Abenomics  PBOC  globalization  globalisation  financial  market  zombie  banks  savings  glut  business  confidence  business  investment  USA  UK  Europe  China  asset  bubble  asset  allocation  FOMO  hunt  for  yield  speculative  speculation  Super  Rich  1%  property  bubble  unconventional  monetary  policy  Fed  BOE  ECB  inflation  expectation  inflation  targeting  Fed  mandate  deflationary  deflation  fiscal  policy  irrational  exuberance  panic  hubris  unknown  unkown  unintended  consequences  Taper  book  structural  imbalance  Impediments  reserve  currency  fiat  currency  current  account  deficit  trade  deficit  structural  deficit  fiscal  deficit  fiscal  stimulus  Germany  austerity  dogma  ideology  credibility  Career  Politicians  Pact  Schuldenbremse  monetary  transmission  mechanism  monetary  stimulus  monetary  theory  monetary  system  complexity  incomplete  information  shadow  banking  uncertainty  volatility  distortion  financial  repression  governance 
september 2015 by asterisk2a
Japan's IPO of the Century - Bloomberg View
The privatization couldn't have come at a more opportune moment. Even Nobel laureate Paul Krugman, an early Abenomics cheerleader, said this week that he's "really, really worried" about Tokyo’s chances of ending a two-decade slump. The hope is that the listing, which will be targeted at individual Japanese, will encourage households to invest more of their savings. Perhaps more important, it could enliven the country's stagnant banking sector. Japan is among the developed world's most overbanked nations, with more than 100 sleepy regional players (84 of which are publicly traded) servicing 126 million people. Thanks to the Bank of Japan's zero-interest-rate policies, profit margins are shrinking even faster than the population.
Abenomics  Japan  economic  history  2015  neoliberalism  neoliberal  TPP  Privatisation  liberal  economic  reform  economic  refugee  corporate  governance  culture  society  demographic  bubble  competitive  competition  competitiveness  zombie  banks  zombie  corporations  deflation  Yen  BOJ  fiscal  policy  monetary  policy  monetary  stimulus  White  Elephants  asset  allocation  R&D  STEM  industrial  policy  China  monetary  transmission  mechanism  liquidity  trap  excess  reserves  M3 
september 2015 by asterisk2a
Austerity Now: Brazil's Downgrade and Reckoning - Bloomberg View
Brazil faces its deepest recession in 25 years, policy drift and now a reputation deficit that threaten to undo years of prosperity and social gains. [...] even years on, with the economy set to shrink by two percent this year, and unemployment and consumer debt spiking, Brazil looks more likely cast as the leader of submerging markets and the sick man of the BRICS, the club of outsize developing nations -- Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa -- once touted to lead world growth.
liberal  economic  reform  economic  reform  BRIC  credit  bubble  2015  Brazil  China  India  Russia  hot-money  currency-war  currency  debasement  currency  war  centralbanks  BIS  distortion  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  global  trade  global  economy  GFC  recovery  PBOC  economic  history  monetary  policy  unconventional  monetary  policy  monetary  transmission  mechanism  liquidity  liquidity  trap  2008  asset  allocation  asset  bubble  Carry  speculative  bubbles  speculative  speculation  hunt  for  yield  FOMO  equity  bubble  reflate  reflation  commodity  prices  South  Africa  democracy  Career  Politicians  No  Representation  bribery  corruption 
september 2015 by asterisk2a
China's impossible trinity - BBC News
At the heart of China's problem is the "impossible trinity" of international macroeconomics. The impossible trinity - or trilemma - is the idea that it is impossible for a country to have three things at the same time: a stable currency, the free movement of capital (i.e. the absence of capital controls) and independent monetary policy. A country can instead choose just two of the options from this policy suite. The UK, in common with most developed economies, has free capital movement and an independent monetary policy - but not a controlled exchange rate. The Bank of England sets interest rates at a level it thinks is right for the UK economy and - as capital can flow into and out of the UK at will - the exchange rate is determined by the market. [...] But the bigger criticism is usually over the nature of the post-2009 stimulus package [...] But, for all the criticism, the counterfactual is rarely stated. What would global growth have looked like without it? [//+ deflation factors]
China  liberal  economic  reform  2015  credit  bubble  devaluation  currency  debasement  Yuan  RMB  PBOC  IMF  SDR  macroeconomics  monetary  policy  fiscal  policy  QE  recovery  GFC  economic  history  banking  crisis  shadow  banking  NPL  debtoverhang  balance  sheet  recession  deleveraging  property  bubble  hot-money  BRIC  western  world  global  trade  global  economy  deflationary  deflation  reflate  reflation  equity  bubble  asset  bubble  asset  allocation  distortion  unknown  unkown  unintended  consequences  Fed  BOE  BOJ  Abenomics  currency  war  currency-war  aggregate  demand  short-fall  aggregate  demand  Richard  Koo  consumer  debt  household  debt  student  loan  debt  debt  servitude  sovereign  debt  crisis  debt  bubble  Super  Cycle  student  debt  public  debt  debt  monetisation  debt  monetization  private  debt  globalisation  globalization  technological  progress  flat  world  wage  growth  wage  stagnation  secular  stagnation  borderless  global  imbalances  faultlines  structural  imbalance  savings  glut  Impediments  inequality  squeezed  middle  class  Europe  UK  OECD  marginal  propensity  to  consume  Sozialer  Abstieg  working  poor  precarious  work  income  growth  deregulation  self-regulation  Workers  Union  wage  pressure  disposable  income  income  distribution  income  redistribution  low  income  income  inequality  American  Dream  USA  Gini  Super  coe 
september 2015 by asterisk2a
Buddy can you spare $2m? New York's housing crisis - BBC News
Like London, property prices in New York have gone turbo-ballistic, as global capital in search of a safe haven has rocketed in. Property has ceased to be somewhere you live, and become a commodity. Apartment blocks are the new safety deposit boxes - often standing owned but empty. Handy for the portfolios of the super-rich, but for the rest, whose wages have stagnated while rents have risen, it's a disaster.
property  bubble  speculative  bubbles  asset  bubble  hot-money  asset  allocation  Super  Rich  1%  Toff  Privileged  Establishment  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  credit  bubble  2015  China  BRIC  western  world  NYC  London 
september 2015 by asterisk2a
We’re gonna need a bigger round...
After 15 years of staggering declines, the cost of building a company in San Francisco is rising sharply // prohibitive! diluting too much too early. // China and other BRIC paper millionaers divesting into property speculators, around the world. every city that has seen substantial price appreciation +10-20% over last +5 years // hot money from monetary policy, excess reserves, flushing around the globe //
cost  of  entry  cost  of  living  living  standard  living  spaces  standard  of  living  city  living  commuting  London  Start-up  Scene  San  Francisco  burn  rate  runway  advice  lesson  urbanisation  urban  planning  Mountain  View  Palo  Alto  Redwood  growth  round  Venture  Capital  hunt  for  yield  FOMO  asset  allocation  asset  bubble  speculative  bubbles  property  bubble  hot-money  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  China  PBOC  2015  credit  bubble  Fed  ECB  BOJ  excess  reserves  economic  history  equity  bubble  bond  bubble  bubbles  speculative  speculation  Micro  VC  Limited  Partners  Angel  Investor  Seed  Party  valuation  globalization  globalisation  flat  world  borderless 
september 2015 by asterisk2a
After the Crisis - Mark Blyth - YouTube
>> what if rise of the banks (deregulation, easy credit, global financial markets - arbitrage, and making money with money) fuelled the growth of the last ~25-30 years. // min 47 3 asset bubbles popped // USA - 40% of corporate profits came from 10% of corporate sector (banks) // 30% of MIT grads went to banks instead of real world engineering and manufacturing. // underwater private sector! via credit bubble: student loans (now 1trn and still rising in USA and UK, future disposable income/discretionary spending lower than babyboomers because of wage stagnation, no wage growth) credit cards, mortgages, heloc (home equity line of credit) --- all will have to focus on paying back debt. // 2015 - us student loans 1.25trn - bit.ly/1KJ29uc + auto loans << bubble to eventually pop when collateral is falling! ie stagnant wages for 10 more years. and more and more cant repay their student loans. // 1:12:00 Bubbles move on; dot.com, real estate (property) & commodities, China,
Mark  Blyth  austerity  GFC  recovery  banking  crisis  sovereign  debt  crisis  economic  history  PIIGSFB  bank  bailout  fairness  Generationengerechtigkeit  toobigtofail  too  big  to  jail  too  big  to  bail  TBTF  ECB  NPL  deleveraging  balance  sheet  recession  underwater  credit  bubble  trickle-down  economics  China  2015  2008  dot.com  western  world  secular  stagnation  debt  servitude  student  loan  debt  student  loan  student  debt  generationy  generation  rent  Millennials  disposable  income  discretionary  spending  marginal  propensity  to  consume  Super  Rich  squeezed  middle  class  Sozialer  Abstieg  self-employment  Zero  Hour  Contract  Contractor  underemployed  precarious  work  working  poor  inequality  Gini  coefficient  post-capitalism  crony  capitalism  capitalism  manufactured  consent  Polarisation  Thomas  Piketty  developed  world  income  inequality  propaganda  populism  corporate  state  corporate  media  democracy  Career  Politicians  lobbyist  Lobbying  lobby  deregulation  self-regulation  Workers  Union  wage  stagnation  wage  growth  income  distribution  income  growth  income  mobility  low  income  income  redistribution  stagnation  consumer  debt  debtoverhang  Super  Cycle  debt  bubble  household  debt  private  debt  asset  bubble  reflate  reflation  asset  allocation  distortion  monetary  policy  monetary  stimulus  monetary  monetary 
september 2015 by asterisk2a
Banks Are Perilously Exposed to China - Bloomberg View
International banks, however, don't appear to be heavily exposed to China, at first glance anyway. Bank of International Settlements data show that their claims on Chinese banks, companies, consumers and public sector are quite manageable, though Australian and U.K. banks have extended a lot of credit in China in proportion to their total foreign assets: [...] U.K. banks' $198 billion in Chinese assets at the end of last year looks particularly threatening, especially given that HSBC and Standard Chartered both derive a significant portion of their revenue from China. This exposure is particularly problematic because a debt overhang is one of the Chinese economy's biggest problems.
exposure  China  banking  crisis  investment  banking  UK  USA  2015  credit  bubble  equity  bubble  speculative  bubbles  bond  bubble  property  bubble  asset  bubble  asset  allocation  distortion  ZIRP  PBOC  NIRP  QE  QT  2016  balance  sheet  recession  underwater  debtoverhang  VAR  excess  reserves  shadow  banking  fractional  reserve  banking  banking  Fed  BOE  London  Bank  Oversight  George  Osborne  David  Cameron  Mark  Carney  liquidity  trap  Taper  monetary  transmission  mechanism  M3  monetary  policy  monetary  stimulus  unconventional  monetary  policy  monetary  system  monetary  theory  austerity  unknown  unkown  unintended  consequences  deregulation  self-regulation  regulation  regulators  Westminster  Toff  Conservative  Party  Tories  Establishment  Privileged  speculative  speculation  derivatives  financial  repression  financial  market  financial  cycle  financial  literacy  financial  crisis  HSBC  Standard  Chartered  NPL  correction  overcapacity  AIIB  Asia  FX  reserves  centralbank  reserves  margin  trading  leverage  irrational  exuberance  hubris  panic  petrodollar  Oil  price  OPEC  global  trade  global  economy  global  growth  global  imbalances  faultlines  structural  imbalance  Impediments  debt  monetisation  debt  monetization  BIS  Germany  Japan  Yuan  RMB  devaluation 
september 2015 by asterisk2a
Inside the Politics of Chinese Market Intervention - YouTube
missteps along the way to re-tool economy! // too much capacity build for a underperforming world and china and ASIA = NPL too.
China  equity  bubble  credit  bubble  market  intervention  2015  property  bubble  asset  allocation  distortion  PBOC  banking  crisis  shadow  banking  shadow  economy  AIIB  NPL 
september 2015 by asterisk2a
Will Oil Cause the Next Recession? - Bloomberg View
[Private Sector could not drive recovery! Stupid. And rising (re-flating) asset prices like stocks did not inspire consumers. The reality on the ground is different than asset prices. Inflation targeting is a policy error in hindsight. Question is if policy makers (fiscal and monetary) as willing to admit this, or drag the world through another lost decade & generation!? ] Most forecasters believe consumers will spend the windfall, and thus boost the economy. But almost all of the savings from lower pump prices so far have been used to rebuild household assets and reduce debt. Consumers tend to increase their savings in tough times; they've been doing so during the six-year recovery, even as real wages and median household incomes remain flat. Lower oil prices, however, could come with a downside. As they work their way through the system, deflation could follow. Already, 10 of the 34 largest economies in the world have seen year-over-year declines in consumer prices. [
household  debt  consumer  debt  recovery  Private  Sector  GFC  economic  history  wage  growth  wage  stagnation  squeezed  middle  class  Sozialer  Abstieg  western  world  globalization  globalisation  credit  bubble  2015  QE  ZIRP  NIRP  asset  bubble  asset  allocation  Super  Rich  1%  bank  bailout  balance  sheet  recession  deleveraging  debtoverhang  Richard  Koo  fiscal  stimulus  underinvestment  productive  investment  fiscal  policy  austerity  IMF  OECD  lost  decade  lost  generation  competitive  competition  deflationary  deflation  competitive  advantage  competitiveness  underemployed  structural  unemployment  Zero  Hour  Contract  Contractor  self-employment  Zeitarbeit  neoliberalism  neoliberal  Werkvertrag  part-time  Minijob  deregulation  Workers  Union  crony  capitalism  capitalism  Wall  Street  shareholder  value  profit  maximisation  USA  UK  Europe  developed  world  secular  stagnation  marginal  cost  economics  of  abundance  trickle-down  economics  tax  avoidance  tax  evasion  tax  code  capital  gains  tax  Generationengerechtigkeit  fairness  sovereign  debt  crisis  PR  spin  doctor  manufactured  consent  Lügenpresse  propaganda  populism  working  poor  precarious  work  Precariat  policy  inflatio 
september 2015 by asterisk2a
Pando: In the Valley, pre-seed is a meme. In New York, it’s a necessity
// cost of entry? // unable to make it happen? // Can't you write software from anywhere? // problem, heavily diluted early on approaching A/B, traditional shops don't like the cap table of pre-seed, angels, seed, accelerator & Micro VC's already owning ~+40% ... you come to a traditional A/B shop and not one of the existing investors is actually leading the round or committed in paper do double down? // // from a financial perspective/investment/math --- in the PRIVATE MARKET thrown under the bus by NIRP, QE, hunt for yield and FOMO (looking for their female unicorn or own Zuck) everyone can run 100 burger stands with unlimited/stellar returns in their spreadsheet model (bc cost of capital being 0 or negative). Despite the deflation of price of software & hosting (marginal cost, economics of abundance), Talent got bid up heavily (+200k/y in LA by Snapchat) in certain cities (SV, NY, London) // &! Steen Jakobsen - youtu.be/fnp5ETnKylU - min 16 avg guy does not have access to credit!
Seed  Round  Party  Round  Venture  Capital  Micro  VC  barriers  to  entry  cost  of  entry  London  Start-up  Scene  ecosystem  New  York  Scene  burn  rate  runway  traction  A  Round  seedfunding  funding  Angel  Investor  dilution  cap  table  lesson  advice  liquidation  preferences  hunt  for  yield  2015  distortion  FOMO  equity  bubble  credit  bubble  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  asset  allocation  Limited  Partners  monetary  policy  fiscal  policy  Wall  Street  asset  bubble  behavioral  finance  behavioral  economics  Silicon  Valley  Private  Market  Public  Market  reflate  reflation  cost  of  living  valuation  Unicorn  Decacorn  cost  of  leverage  financial  repression  financial  literacy  financial  financial  cycle  business  cycle  business  confidence  consumer  confidence  hubris  panic  irrational  exuberance  retail  banking  investment  banking  fractional  reserve  banking  banking  crisis 
september 2015 by asterisk2a
Steen Jakobsen: Get Ready For The Biggest Margin Call In History - YouTube
ideology/Career Politicians/Complacency/Cushy/non-ambitious/AIIB/comfortable //&! bit.ly/1cU2RVS March 2015, SELL & come back in 6 months - bloom.bg/1NTykGB //&! bit.ly/1NJvXai &! bit.ly/1VsYTEJ Outrageous predictions for 2015 were: China devalues yuan 20% [joining others in global struggle to import inflation] &! Corporate high yield market spreads double (higher refinancing cost, which zombie corporations do actually have no pants on as tide goes out) "High yield is a derivative of equity markets. If you believe equities are overvalued, so too is high yield," &! UK house prices crash (foreign hot money, speculative + shortage + Summer 2015 Crash + BOE Taper in 2015/16 = back to reality!) &! Russia defaults again // &! Fed Taper is a "margin call," [need 2 normalize despite its mandate/fundamentals not warranting a hike!] [...] a seven-year bull run 4 equities might be coming to an end [...] the rise (not value) of RMB/Yuan as it becomes free floating out of need] - cnb.cx/1MMyLSC
Abenomics  Yen  Yuan  RMB  devaluation  currency-war  fiat  currency  currency  debasement  currency  war  deflationary  deflation  credit  bubble  PBOC  China  credit  cycle  business  cycle  financial  cycle  financial  crisis  leverage  margin  trading  underinvestment  productive  investment  business  investment  public  investment  personal  investment  infrastructure  investment  rebalancing  structural  imbalance  Impediments  infrastructure  Career  Politicians  short-term  Fortune  500  shareholder  value  profit  maximisation  Wall  Street  ROI  STEM  Research  R&D  business  confidence  consumer  confidence  New  Normal  hunt  for  yield  output  gap  productivity  Software  Is  Eating  The  World  Robotics  3D  printing  Steen  Jakobsen  financial  incentive  secular  stagnation  Manufacturing  Industrial  Revolution  2.0  policy  AIIB  Asia  European  Union  share  buyback  2015  equity  bubble  speculative  bubbles  bond  bubble  property  bubble  asset  bubble  asset  allocation  distortion  demographic  bubble  ageing  population  western  developed  liquidity  trap  UK  USA  Europe  BOE  Fed  BOJ  ECB  bank  bailout  toobigtofail  too  big  to  jail  too  big  to  bail  banking  crisis  sovereign  debt  crisis  austerity  ideology  dogma  economic  history  trickle-down  economics  neoliberalism  neoliberal 
august 2015 by asterisk2a
China: Is it in the Midst of a Hard Landing? - YouTube
Gordon Chang, author of "The Coming Collapse of China," discusses the outlook for China's economy with Bloomberg's Joe Weisenthal and Alix Steel on "What'd You Miss?" // 1trn in reserves to support yuan, will need to liquidate its serserves - bond and fx // currently there is no backstop // mal-investment // time has run out since their Put post-2009 to retool economy and social safety net and health care // will be bad pull on western world, deflation, // "1930's style crash" // they have no tool left, no backstop. //
book  China  credit  bubble  QE  ZIRP  NIRP  PBOC  liquidity  trap  asset  allocation  speculative  bubbles  asset  bubble  equity  bubble  faultlines  structural  imbalance  Impediments  2015  capital-flight  Yuan  RMB  economic  growth  contagion  global  economy  bond  bubble  property  bubble  hubris  irrational  exuberance  panic  BRIC  Developing  World  western  deflationary  deflation  economic  history  fiscal  policy  monetary  policy 
august 2015 by asterisk2a
Easy Money Creates the Most Dangerous Bubbles - Bloomberg View
[Money has been slushing arnd in markets speculating, not investing in future & productive, added value goods. big companies are flush 2. easy credit is holding zombie corps of the last century over water. western world is persisting 2 put a banking bailout/crisis in the light of a sovereign debt crisis 2 push idealogical austerity. falling way being, never be able 2 catch up with productivity, output gap, STEM, research, future of work, smart grid & infrastructure, retooling their economy 21st century style.] // "speculation in property markets, amplified by mortgage financing, as a persistent central factor driving economic cycles." [...] the worst bubbles -- those that inflict the most economic pain -- tend to involve not just speculation, but a surge in easy lending and increasing leverage. [...] economic downturns following credit bubbles were generally worse and lasted longer. [...] danger of leverage cycle. // [ easy credit & debt fuelled recovery of assets, not fundamentals ]
book  credit  bubble  liquidity  trap  Richard  Koo  economic  history  zombie  banks  Mark  Blyth  Paul  Krugman  Joseph  Stiglitz  business  confidence  business  investment  economic  damage  2015  faultlines  structural  imbalance  structural  unemployment  skills  gap  skill-biased  technological  change  education  policy  austerity  fiscal  policy  monetary  policy  recovery  western  world  USA  UK  Europe  Germany  underinvestment  productive  investment  infrastructure  investment  Smart  Grid  Software  Is  Eating  The  GFC  Career  Politicians  status  quo  social  contract  fairness  Generationengerechtigkeit  banking  crisis  TBTF  too  big  to  bail  too  big  to  jail  toobigtofail  financial  market  leverage  margin  trading  property  bubble  mortgage  market  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  Impediments  distortion  economic  model  economic  cycle  financial  cycle  financial  crisis  financial  incentive  financial  repression  financial  literacy  ECB  Abenomics  BOJ  BOE  Fed  monetary  stimulus  macroprudential  policy  macroeconomic  policy  microeconomic  policy  deleveraging  balance  sheet  recession  debtoverhang  BIS  unintended  consequences  unknown  unkown  PBOC  China  equity  bubble  speculative  bubbles  bond  bubble  debt  bubble  asset  bubble  asset  allocation  academia  academics  economic-thought  behavioral  economics  behavioral  finance  hubris  panic  consumer  confidence  confidence  trust  banking  investment  banking  distr 
august 2015 by asterisk2a
Forget China - Oil Price Is Main Driver Of Market Turmoil | Zero Hedge
For the moment we are expecting oil producers to start to minimize their loses by producing even more oil. The oil crisis has just begun. // // &! DeMark compares China to the start of the Great Depression in the US, and when applying the 38.2 Fib retracement levels which have been breached, now expects even more pain for Chinese stocks - bit.ly/1NJdISb // // &! THINGS WERE TOO FAR AWAY FROM REALITY - Many indicators confirm that last week was remarkable and historic. Record after record was set, including the largest daily move, the biggest intra-day reversal and the most harrowing intra-day air pocket. - bv.ms/1O45W2i - legitimate questions about the robustness of the global economy [ contagion & overshoot - hubris and panic alike, good news gets washed down w bad news, extreme volatility still break markets, contagion still real & ppl are leveraged again (were complacent, institutional! investors!) ] market craziness. [ irrational exuberance that were equities ]. &! bv.ms/1UnLeMV
Oil  price  energy  price  OPEC  2015  China  commodities  global  trade  global  economy  western  world  developed  world  BRIC  credit  bubble  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  PBOC  economic  slowdown  reflate  reflation  asset  allocation  asset  bubble  hunt  for  yield  liquidity  trap  Fed  BOE  BOJ  ECB  hot-money  currency-war  currency  debasement  currency  war  economic  history  debt  monetisation  debt  monetization  contagion  VIX  volatility  uncertainty  unknown  unkown  unintended  consequences  margin  trading  deleveraging  Greed  Wall  Street  profit  maximisation  shareholder  value  share  buyback  hubris  panic  behavioral  finance  behavioral  economics  irrational  exuberance  economic  growth  monetary  policy  monetary  stimulus  unconventional  monetary  policy  zombie  banks  business  confidence  consumer  confidence  recovery  speculative  bubbles  speculative  speculation  equity  bubble  bond  bubble  property  bubble  economic  damage 
august 2015 by asterisk2a
Marc Faber: The Global Economy Is Entering An Epic Slump - YouTube
could see liquidity squeeze. have global credit bubble. Chinas own (2009-Put) did pop, probably just this Summer '15! // may lead 2 zombie banks, if they werent already if it werent 4 PBOC with huge amounts of NPL also within shadow banking system. bit.ly/1FaVAZt policy response could be 2 double down on usual mis-guided measures 2 keep status quo. extend & pretend. // World is still flush, thus currently moderate signs of impact of China slowdown - bit.ly/1EuMVXe - will take time. // &! leverage / margin trading was/is at new highs comparable to 2007 on both side of Pacific (USA/China) - bit.ly/1IxyRXD - so the hurt was/will be big! BIG! underwater. talk abt manufactured balance sheet recession // &! Willem Buiter: Only "Helicopter Money" Can Save The World Now - bit.ly/1Et5Bq5 - major blast of fiscal spending by PBOC in some months when the hurt cant be ignored any more. Will wait too long, will drag everyone else down. & bit.ly/1NYB5nQ &! youtu.be/3wvQDxJPhQ4 - Jim Rogers.
liquidity  trap  credit  bubble  2015  China  private  debt  household  debt  PBOC  equity  bubble  property  bubble  hunt  for  yield  speculative  bubbles  asset  allocation  asset  bubble  bond  bubble  distortion  margin  trading  NPL  zombie  banks  banking  crisis  shadow  banking  leverage  underwater  contagion  USA  UK  Europe  developed  world  IMF  OECD  QE  currency-war  currency  debasement  currency  war  fiscal  stimulus  fiscal  policy  monetary  policy  Jim  Rogers 
august 2015 by asterisk2a
Why China Had To Crash - Forbes
Private Debt/household debt 2 GDP exceeding 1.5x/150% spells trouble. Chinas pace of Private Debt expansion through credit was unprecedented in % terms compared to any other recent credit bubble (China Put, 2009) on.ft.com/1Ixhw1a // Could now spell balance sheet recession (underwater, servicing debt for worth(less) asset ie stock (+margin trading) or property (inland or overseas)) thus deleveraging of private households. --- Metropolitan property markets across the world have been flooded with speculative money from China & BRIC! Just look at last chart of % of household debt increase bit.ly/1va3oaw Its Russia, China, Brazil, ... // And China banking system & shadow banking system could sit on a lot of NPL coming 2016. Zombie banks in China, ups! PBOC commanded to lend post-2009! // &! bit.ly/1KWkTQY // &! youtu.be/-3aBjFo2Fh4 - Steve Keen (Mar 29, 2015) 'with bad models you can't see shocks coming!'
China  2015  credit  bubble  margin  trading  property  bubble  equity  bubble  asset  allocation  hot-money  hunt  for  yield  PBOC  balance  sheet  recession  deleveraging  debtoverhang  underwater  devaluation  Yuan  RMB  BRIC  speculative  bubbles  asset  bubble  bond  bubble  NPL  zombie  banks  private  debt  household  debt  Steve  Keen 
august 2015 by asterisk2a
(2015) Professor Steve Keen explains why austerity economics is naive - YouTube
youtu.be/-HHJ3q2TxEQ (2014) // Unable 2 sustain long-term economic growth! Next headwind (ie China, Summer pop 2015) could put it back into the ringer! No internal resilience long-term. Gross gov debt still rising & budget (tax income) short-fall enlarged than it would be otherwise. // & talking Schuldenbremse/compulsory budget surplus proposal >> Rising private debt 2 make up of the short-fall of public spending, that is what its institute of fiscal studies has been saying ever since Tories came into Office with its austerity agenda. // The next downturn (private debt rise stop & focus on servicing it/deleveraging + gov keeping austerity agenda) will be even steeper & harder! // On path of stagnation, of western world; how u serve that debt in New Normal of <~2% growth p/a & <2% inflation & <2% inflation expectations!? // &! youtu.be/-3aBjFo2Fh4 // youtu.be/WSfe6uyO5yE & youtu.be/4TTuPwIzFC0 - China "Crash." &! on.ft.com/1Ixhw1a 'Crazy China Crash Possible w contagion'
UK  austerity  Mark  Blyth  Steve  Keen  Paul  Krugman  2015  budget2015  recovery  Schuldenbremse  Fiscal  Pact  secular  stagnation  deflationary  deflation  private  debt  household  debt  debt  servitude  consumer  debt  debtoverhang  student  loan  debt  Super  Cycle  student  debt  China  equity  bubble  property  bubble  credit  bubble  reflate  reflation  asset  bubble  asset  allocation  hunt  for  yield  bond  bubble  speculative  bubbles  demographic  bubble  ageing  population  debt  bubble  PBOC  balance  sheet  recession  deleveraging  Richard  Koo  banking  crisis  zombie  banks  shadow  banking  investment  banking  sovereign  debt  crisis  PIIGSFB  European  Union  Germany  stimulus  policy  monetary  policy  BOE  ECB  Fed  Taper  stagnation  western  world  developed  world  IMF  OECD 
august 2015 by asterisk2a
(2012/13) After the Financial Crisis: How to Tell the Forest from the Trees - YouTube
"Profits are privatized while losses are socialized. How we got here, and how we can get out of this situation." // min20 - UK debt2GDP 2008, +100% Debt on Banks Balance Sheet, ~100% Household Debt, +100% Nonfinancial institutional/corporate Debt, <50% Gov Debt ( bit.ly/1u6QiLP ) risen to <80% Gov Debt2GDP bc of Bank Bailout. ( gross national debt has been rising, unable to pay down because of lack of growth, turning Japan - bit.ly/1f7UNyp ) // It is still a banking crisis. Especially in Europe. Not a sovereign debt crisis. Greece situation made much worse because of austerity. // min 32 - talks about China! China's Assets and Liabilities. 70% of global consumption is US/EU. [but shifting!] From CDO example, China correlates with US/EU vice versa! Chinese property bubble & equity bubble, came 2 an end this Summer 2015! The crisis began w banks & will end w banks! The crisis is still with us. The banks, stupid! // investment banking bust bc of low yields across all public asset classes
Mark  Blyth  austerity  GFC  recovery  2015  economic  history  bank  bailout  sovereign  debt  crisis  Greece  PIIGSFB  zombie  banks  liquidity  trap  ECB  UK  BOE  Fed  USA  China  faultlines  structural  imbalance  Impediments  global  imbalances  savings  rate  savings  glut  shadow  banking  investment  banking  banking  crisis  European  Union  hunt  for  yield  reflate  reflation  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  bond  bubble  speculative  bubbles  asset  bubble  asset  allocation  toxicassets  badbank  policy  error  too  big  to  bail  too  big  to  jail  toobigtofail  TBTF  Richard  Koo  trust  distrust  trustagent  Insolvenzverschleppung  insolvency  insolvent  underinvestment  productive  investment  business  confidence  consumer  confidence  deflationary  deflation  secular  stagnation  globalization  globalisation  hot-money  currency-war  currency  debasement  currency  war  business  investment  New  Normal  margin  trading  demographic  bubble  property  bubble  equity  bubble  ageing  population  western  world  emerging  middle  class  Frontier  Markets  Developing  BRIC  emerging  market  IMF  OECD  credit  bubble  inequality  Gini  coefficient  Thomas  Piketty  poverty  social  mobility 
august 2015 by asterisk2a
The Draghi Put - YouTube
Draghi Put &! bit.ly/1fQ2lcq // &! bloom.bg/1Euf6peh // &! Mark Blyth Mackenzie Lecture 2015 – Austerity and the Politics of Money - youtu.be/B6vV8_uQmxs --- u cant make them lend (banks) 2 businesses (productive investment, closing productivity & output gap) particularly in a deflationary world with secular stagnation tendencies/signs, with non-existent inflation expectations! liquidity trap! dont get into higher growth path/gear! and infrastructure bonds (= Eurobond) on EU level wont help very much. !New Normal is lower yield avg across assets (public) & economic growth average p/a of abt 1.2-1.4% Add demographic bubble/ageing population = less consumerism, less disposable income/discretionary spending on aggregate, Piketty (book) removed technology as growth multiplier in some chapters & then you really come to <2% p/a long-run growth predictions for EU/western world. <2% growth p/a at >90% debt2gdp u have a problem! == Rechtsruck &or Anti-Austerity. Political tail-risk!
Draghi  Put  ECB  ELA  TLTRO  LTRO  QE  ZIRP  NIRP  liquidity  trap  distortion  bond  bubble  asset  bubble  equity  bubble  reflate  reflation  financial  repression  asset  allocation  speculative  bubbles  deflationary  deflation  inflation  expectation  inflation  targeting  MarioDraghi  monetary  transmission  mechanism  M3  monetary  policy  monetary  stimulus  monetary  theory  hot-money  hunt  for  yield  debt  monetisation  debt  monetization  trust  devaluation  currency  debasement  currency-war  fiat  currency  trustagent  distrust  Richard  Koo  fiscal  stimulus  austerity  fiscal  policy  balance  sheet  recession  deleveraging  debt  servitude  Super  Cycle  Mark  Blyth  inequality  New  Normal  economic  history  underinvestment  productive  investment  infrastructure  investment  output  gap  productivity  UK  Europe  Germany  PIIGSFB  zombie  banks  Thomas  Piketty  demographic  bubble  ageing  population  economic  growth  Rechtsruck  SNP  European  Election  2014  UKIP  AfD  NPD  Conservative  Party  Tories  Establishment  Privileged  babyboomers  Lügenpresse  manufactured  consent  PR  spin  doctor  propaganda  populism  Labour  Party  Career  Politicians  No  Representation  social  contract  Generationengerechtigkeit  fairness  poverty  Gini  poverty  policy  coef 
august 2015 by asterisk2a
International Focus - A History of Austerity - YouTube
fallacy of composition problem // short-term profit seeking and rent-seeking behaviour, underinvestment, no productive investment - especially long-term. // this underinvestment - public and private sector + market forces and technological progess will level the world and the China/Asia/LatAm rises up to the western world level while western world stays stagnant (loss of standard/quality of living competitively) because of being behind - software is eating the world, 3D printing, uncompetitive manufacturing and heavy industry/goods because of higher energy prices because of lack of investment in energy storage systems that are realized right now and backing off in investment in renewable energy and energy efficiency schemes (especially UK budget2015), automation, robotics, lack knowledge workforce to fill future digital/STEM/knowledge jobs, because of low social mobility, student debt, cuts in education - vocational - professional, as well as giving up on child poverty targets.
rent-seeking  austerity  economic  history  recovery  GFC  secular  stagnation  ideology  dogma  European  Union  UK  USA  2015  underinvestment  productive  investment  asset  allocation  short-term  thinking  short-term  view  hunt  for  yield  QE  ZIRP  NIRP  asset  bubble  speculative  bubbles  equity  bubble  bond  bubble  public  investment  infrastructure  investment  long-term  view  long-term  thinking  Career  Politicians  neoliberalism  neoliberal  No  Representation  academia  academics  Angela  Merkel  Wolfgang  Schäuble  Troika  IMF  OECD  ChristineLagarde  Richard  Koo  Paul  Krugman  Robert  Reich  Joseph  Stiglitz  sovereign  debt  crisis  zombie  banks  TBTF  too  big  to  jail  toobigtofail  bank  bailout  NPL  ECB  Fed  BOE  fiscal  policy  Pact  Schuldenbremse  manufactured  consent  corporate  state  propaganda  corporate  media  populism  PR  spin  doctor  Eurogroup  EuroFin  democracy  Generationengerechtigkeit  fairness  social  contract  crony  capitalism  deregulation  self-regulation  regulation  regulators  lobbyist  lobby  Lobbying  revolving  door  unintended  consequences  unknown  unkown  lost  decade  lost  generation  western  world  Developing  developed  world  Gini  coefficient  social  mobility  income  mobility  policy  in 
august 2015 by asterisk2a
Austerity: The History of a Dangerous Idea - YouTube
faith in capitalism can only be sustained, according to Adam Smith, if we can better ourself (vs winner takes all) & talent diversion into Finance, not Climate Change, STEM, education, sw, hw & rogoff/reinhart called 4 fiscal stimulus in 2014. &! its a banking problem, not overspend, its corporate state (Tories) PR and spin doctors, manufacturing consent, propaganda/populism! change conversation away from banks! // youtu.be/a-8ySh6nUsA // &! The Austerity Delusion - youtu.be/NQGCoiakycQ // &! Is Austerity a Dangerous Idea? - youtu.be/2v8m-J8sgik // &! youtu.be/JQuHSQXxsjM // &! Mackenzie Lecture 2015 - youtu.be/B6vV8_uQmxs // &! After the Financial Crisis: How to Tell the Forest from the Trees - youtu.be/V3FPmu2_J_0 // &! Book Panel 2013 - youtu.be/Xz4FW8GDwG4 - "debt gets cured by growth." & austerity is ideological war on welfare state & class // &! youtu.be/iM2cnMhJZyg // &! youtu.be/in5M65566iw // &! What I Learned and (Un-Learned) at the Financial Crisis - youtu.be/lhldDOp77QA /
austerity  economic  history  Gini  coefficient  social  mobility  income  mobility  downward  mobility  inequality  apathy  voter  turnout  crony  capitalism  ideology  dogma  GFC  IMF  OECD  ChristineLagarde  George  Osborne  David  Cameron  Angela  Merkel  Troika  Wolfgang  Schäuble  Conservative  Party  Schuldenbremse  Fiscal  Pact  UK  Europe  Generationengerechtigkeit  fairness  lost  generation  lost  decade  Japan  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  unintended  consequences  asset  allocation  hunt  for  yield  speculative  bubbles  property  bubble  unknown  unkown  Taper  KennethRogoff  carmenreinhart  Thomas  Piketty  debtoverhang  balance  sheet  recession  sovereign  debt  crisis  deleveraging  Richard  Koo  trickle-down  economics  neoliberalism  neoliberal  Privatisation  industrial  policy  Revolution  2.0  deflationary  deflation  secular  stagnation  globalisation  globalization  Eurogroup  Paul  Krugman  Joseph  Stiglitz  reflate  recovery  reflation  bond  bubble  asset  bubble  faultlines  structural  imbalance  Impediments  BOE  macroeconomic  policy  microeconomic  policy  short-term  Career  Politicians  political  theory  social  contract  Gesellschaft  No  Representation  Rechtsruck  stagnation  social 
august 2015 by asterisk2a
#TOA Interview with Fred Wilson & Brad Burnham of Union Square Ventures - YouTube
mi 32 - lack of adoption of SV model: no politics, execution, results driven, value creation, accepting Failure as outcome (culture of Stigma in EU and Germany) // min 36 - oh hi there world - buy into the company! a partner, strategic joint venture. shared economic interest, own platform by publishers! // miss-allocation of capital ! // hard things about hard things - Pivot, layoff vs running out of money not finding product/market fit & traction // early on its only hunch & gut based. // #TOA15: ¨Are the Germans Unable to Disrupt?¨ with Christoph Keese (Axel Springer SE) - youtu.be/YyuJmAtZQis - its abt value creation, value add, redesigning of value, chains, product, data. Big corps cant disrupt itself. especially not by committee. Legacy companies unlikely 2 survive bc of patterns 2 stick 2 the conventional & fail than fail with unconventional & look like a fool (risk aversion, Failure in the public eye). Book "Silicon Valley: Was aus dem mächtigsten Tal der Welt auf uns zukommt"
Europe  Start-Up  Scene  Berlin  Start-Up  Scene  Failure  incrementalism  incremental  value  creation  added  value  Core  Product  Proposition  intangible  value  Mittelstand  SME  SMB  Proposition  Venture  Capital  oh  hi  there  world  Fred  Wilson  London  Scene  Wall  Street  shareholder  value  profit  maximisation  book  ecosystem  distortion  asset  allocation  Germany  Europe  industrial  policy  Revolution  2.0  STEM  3D  printing  Software  Is  Eating  The  automation  automotive  Big  Data  Robotics  business  consumer  disrupting  markets  disruption  creative  destruction  Pivot  Product/Market  Fit  traction  self-awareness  MVP  Minimal  Viable  Product  Lean  Start-Up  timing  Internet  Privacy  Privacy 
august 2015 by asterisk2a
Will the Next Recession Be Made in China? - Bloomberg Business
When China sneezes, the world just might catch a cold [...] The difference between now and then is that a lot of developing nations and global markets have braced themselves against the risks of a currency crisis, making a full-scale Asian Contagion unlikely. [...] “In a nutshell, no one can or should rule out a crisis, but we believe that the risk has fallen from a few years ago.” [...] Financial markets depend on good information. When it’s lacking, investors flail. They assume the best when they’re bullish and the worst when fear gets the best of them. That helps explain the eruption over China, a nation that remains opaque despite having the world’s second-biggest economy. Facts as basic as its GDP are hard to pin down: Officially it grew at 7 percent in the first and second quarters—suspiciously, precisely the rate Li predicted for 2015. Some outsiders put growth at closer to 5 percent based on data such as electricity consumption and rail cargo.
global  economy  China  global  trade  Europe  USA  globalization  globalisation  borderless  flat  world  contagion  economic  history  2015  recovery  Taper  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  distortion  faultlines  structural  imbalance  global  imbalances  Impediments  PBOC  Fed  BOE  BOJ  Abenomics  hunt  for  yield  reflate  reflation  asset  allocation  asset  bubble  speculative  bubbles  speculative  speculation  equity  bubble  bond  bubble  property  bubble  Debt  Super  Cycle 
august 2015 by asterisk2a
On Second Thought, China Slowdown Will Hit Global-Growth Outlook - Bloomberg Business
Fitch Ratings said in a note Wednesday that while pessimism on China’s short-term outlook is “overdone,” there is still the potential for a “prolonged period of lower growth,” with expansion well below 7 percent. [...] Things are looking gloomier elsewhere. Brazil’s economy, Latin America’s largest, contracted 1.9 percent in the second quarter from the previous period, the government reported on Friday. That’s worse than the 1.7 percent median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg. [...] “The basic assumptions about global growth are suffering, and the epicenter is China,” // lots of hot money on the hunt for yield found its way to emerging market and developing market! period, didn't stay in UK, US, Europe. Period. That is something policy makers accepted. financial market is global, not local. BOE ZIRP NIRP QE can not be contained within UK. Period. Same with Chinese newly minted property/paper millionaires put their money in London & else. LatAm into Miami and Co property.
global  economy  BRIC  global  trade  deflationary  deflation  western  world  UK  USA  Europe  China  Russia  India  2015  hunt  for  yield  hot-money  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  reflate  reflation  emerging  middle  class  GFC  monetary  policy  asset  allocation  asset  bubble  equity  bubble  speculative  bubbles  speculative  speculation  unintended  consequences  complexity  globalization  global  imbalances  globalisation  faultlines  structural  imbalance  Impediments  secular  stagnation  economic  history  BOE  Fed  BOJ  Abenomics  ECB  zombie  banks  monetary  theory  contagion  financial  repression  financial  market  bond  bubble  property  bubble  PBOC 
august 2015 by asterisk2a
El-Erian: This Is Not 1998 or 2008 - YouTube
it is a repricing. a correction. prices got too far away (reflation of equity & co through ZIRP, NIRP, QE, speeches, plus hunt for yield & FOMO). It just happened to be China being the trigger, the wake-up call - very loud wake-up call - bc of its economic size and heft. (taper talks 2015 that made equity already nervous, and bond holders too, was too timid). Reality check. // Was it justified, yes. // In the long-run, we are all dead. And in the long-run things will, eventually, correct itself. // People may take now into account a new normal, lower interest rate environment, lower global growth, lower yields, lower inflationary pressures, lower dividend payments, more work that corporates (crony capitalism) need to do to squeeze out that earnings growth especially in the western world. inequality - low wage growth/stagnation - less discretionary spending on non-essential items (in the western world). & "realization that policy tools were less effective". &! bv.ms/1NFsFUn
reflate  reflation  hunt  for  yield  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  asset  allocation  equity  bubble  speculative  bubbles  speculative  speculation  secular  stagnation  New  Normal  asset  bubble  bubble  bond  bubble  bubbles  distortion  economic  history  trickle-down  economics  recovery  UK  USA  Europe  dogma  ideology  austerity  fiscal  policy  fiscal  stimulus  Richard  Koo  Japan  lost  decade  lost  generation  balance  sheet  recession  deleveraging  savings  rate  debtoverhang  debt  servitude  sovereign  debt  crisis  faultlines  Structural  Impediments  participation  rate  unemployment  imbalance  Makers  policy  error  policy  folly  macroprudential  policy  microeconomic  policy  monetary  policy  monetary  theory  unconventional  monetary  policy  monetary  transmission  mechanism  monetary  system  STEM  industrial  policy  Manufacturing  competitiveness  globalisation  globalization  flat  world  commodity  business  commoditization  borderless  deflationary  deflation  Software  Is  Eating  The  Marketplace  mobile  homescreen  mobile  phone  mobile  first  Smartphone  Revolution  2.0  energy  price  Oil  price  inflation  expectation  wage  stagnation  wage  growth  productivity  output  gap  underinvestment  Gini  coefficient  inequality  income  mobility  social  mobility  productive  investment  IMF  OECD  developed  world  emerging  emerging  growth  investment  midd 
august 2015 by asterisk2a
China economy: Weakened foundations by FT Big Read
Facing an economic slowdown with its old tools to stimulate growth losing their power, Beijing finally turned to a weapon it had avoided using for more than two decades. Jamil Anderlini investigates why China’s leaders resorted to devaluation of the renminbi, and the risk of a currency war // hot money also flowed outside into London and NY property market! in search for yield and diversified portfolio by the newly minted paper rich Chinese 1% - 10%. // Slow down hammered already commodity market and energy prices. And now fear of a real hurtful economic slowdown of China - western world panicked. Selling off world wide. and taking money out of neighbouring countries of China and other emerging and developing countries. // PBOC is willing to risk currency war, ie with Japan!?
China  QE  reflate  reflation  GFC  recovery  economic  history  2015  correction  distortion  asset  bubble  equity  bubble  property  bubble  speculative  bubbles  speculative  speculation  hunt  for  yield  asset  allocation  fiscal  stimulus  monetary  policy  fiscal  policy  bubble  bubbles  hot-money  infrastructure  investment  public  investment  devaluation  Yuan  RMB  PBOC  global  trade  global  economy  deflationary  deflation  western  world  globalization  globalisation  global  imbalances  secular  stagnation  developed  world  currency-war  currency  debasement  currency  war  ZIRP  NIRP  Japan  Abenomics  Yen 
august 2015 by asterisk2a
US stocks nosedive in early trading amid collapse in global markets | Business | The Guardian
[ great reflation move since 09, finds another opportunity (this time because of China) to reflect. meaning to reassess reality. same with the collapse in emerging market, money going out of high yield & risk back to US/UK in hope of Taper and then came the hammer in form of China scare, people taking even more money out of emerging market/Chinas neighbours into the safe haven (perceived) that is the $/£/EUR market ] Dow dropped more than 1,000 points shortly after the markets opened, but it recovered slightly to be down 620 points, or 6%, shortly before 10am. Dow, which had suffered big falls last week, was trading below 16,000 at 10am – the first time it has been below that level since February 2014. The index is 14% below its record peak in May, putting the Dow firmly into “correction” territory – Wall Street jargon for a drop of 10% or more from a recent peak. &! bit.ly/1EQ31Fn &! bit.ly/1F1zPue - Summers argued for fiscal stimulus, debate about secular stagnation.
correction  asset  bubble  asset  allocation  emerging  market  hunt  for  yield  unintended  consequences  2015  unknown  unkown  hot-money  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  reflate  reflation  recovery  GFC  structural  imbalance  global  imbalances  China  USA  western  world  secular  stagnation  Developing  developed  world  Europe  UK  Singapore  Asia  global  economy  global  trade  energy  price  Oil  price  OPEC  economic  history  Taper  Abenomics  Japan  Fed  BOE  ECB  BOJ  Richard  Koo  equity  bubble  bond  bubble  deflationary  deflation  job  creation  job  market  participation  rate  industrial  policy  Makers  short-term  short-term  thinking  short-term  view  policy  folly  policy  error  PBOC  distortion  faultlines  Impediments  STEM  underinvestment  productive  investment  output  gap  productivity  Paul  Krugman  Larry  Summers  Ben  Bernanke  Janet  Yellen  Mark  Carney  MarioDraghi  Angela  Merkel  Wolfgang  Schäuble  austerity  fiscal  policy  Pact  Schuldenbremse  fiscal  stimulus  George  Osborne  dogma  IMF  OECD  ChristineLagarde  ideology 
august 2015 by asterisk2a
Tough outlook for emerging markets - BBC News
[ this was no demand led recovery, it was a central bank debt fuelled reflated recovery (as was dot.com), especially in equity markets. but not fundamentals. unintended consequences of ZIRP/NIRP and QE. flushing world financial markets with liquidity, but not the real world. real world problems still exist. ] A series of emerging market currencies are losing value and stock markets across the developing world are in retreat. The more excitable parts of the financial sector - and indeed on financial twitter (yes, there is such a thing) - are talking of a re-run of the Asian Financial Crisis of 1997. [...] Emerging market currencies have lost value against the dollar and currently stand at a six-and-a-half-year low in aggregate. The Financial Times today reports that almost $1tn of capital has flowed out of emerging economies in the last 13 months. [ now money hoping for Taper re-allocate some out of emerging and developing world ]
China  2015  emerging  market  developed  world  secular  stagnation  reflate  reflation  recovery  Developing  equity  bubble  hunt  for  yield  asset  allocation  asset  bubble  ZIRP  hot-money  QE  NIRP  BIS  centralbanks  deflationary  deflation  economic  history  Taper  devaluation  Yuan  RMB  capital-flight  globalisation  globalization  global  trade  OPEC  energy  price  Oil  price  technological  progress 
august 2015 by asterisk2a
Japan Exports Its Way to Irrelevance - Bloomberg View
[ Politicians as always will react with reactionary unimaginative policy, competing for the same pie. instead of enabling, supporting new pies to be created. ] But Abe needs to recognize, as China already has, that this is only the latest sign of a broader reality: Asia's old export model of economic growth no longer works. [...] All the stimulus BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda can muster won't change the worsening trajectory of the region's most-populous nation. That's why Abe needs to take a page from Beijing and focus more on creating new industries at home. [ the base of home grown new market/category/vertical also includes sound middle class to buy those products. demand at home. social safety net (security). and less inequality. progressive taxation. fight tax evasion/avoidance, monopoles, monopsonies, bribery, corruption. and politicians making policy for lobby. ]
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august 2015 by asterisk2a
Brokering Private Stocks Yet to Yield Big Profits — The Information
The secondary market for private tech shares is booming again, after a slowdown following the Facebook IPO. With valuations rising and startups staying private longer, investors in search of growth have been striking more deals with private company employees seeking to sell their shares. But that boom doesn’t appear to be yet translating into big profits for the handful of most well-known firms brokering the buying and selling of secondary shares, at least based on the limited evidence that’s available from publicly filed financial records. Adapting to changes in the secondary market and launching new ventures has been costly, although the firms are poised to benefit if deal volume continues to rise. [...] The Takeaway. Filings show that some parts of secondary market businesses SharesPost, SecondMarket and Nasdaq Private Market were unprofitable last year, despite the resurgence of deals. Factors include startup costs and a shift to lower-margin transactions.
Secondary  Market  IPO  Silicon  Valley  asset  allocation  hunt  for  yield  2015  growth  round  Venture  Capital 
august 2015 by asterisk2a
Financial Advisor Nick Murray: Masters in Business (Audio) by Bloomberg View | Free Listening on SoundCloud
don't chase alpha. focus on the outcome, it's investor behaviour - that reflects on performance. leave portfolio alone ... 10 year. change less. turnover correlates negatively with return. just sit there. // volatility is NOT risk. risk is the total loss of investment. -10% is a risk, if you sell it at -10%. // >> u can never get truth from media, u can only get news. << example, they never talk about the way inflation is not factored in into retirement planning. they talk about principle and return %. but what inflation takes away from that (purchasing power). // annuities (fixed or variable). fixed income (annuities) is cancer. for retirement planning. it is the planned liquidation on ur purchasing power. because u have 2 subtract inflation. // he prefers all equities for long-term retirement planning. more than 5 year horizon. not emergency fund. // may err on safety; have emergency fund u can withdraw fund for expenses. // &! bv.ms/1NXQcOq &! bit.ly/1NEX1r1 &! bit.ly/1LB93yz
financial  literacy  personal  finance  investment  management  personal  financial  planning  Portfolio  behavioral  finance  behavioral  economics  financial  market  emotion  Greed  asset  allocation  asset  bubble  book  retirement  pension  scheme  public  pension  pension  obligation  pension  pension  fund  retirement  planning 
august 2015 by asterisk2a
Why I'm Moving My Business From San Francisco to St. Louis | Need/Want
// one VC/Angel said, its not that you run out of money, you run out of time to find the magic that makes things for your product work, MVP, Product/Market Fit, that kick up in net promoter score, that multiple in q/q growth, etc etc. // If you’re trying to bootstrap, being based in San Francisco is awful. [ Same with London and New York followed by LA and Seattle. ] Cheap cities are startup friendly. [ don't opt for Edinburgh, if go to Glasgow or Manchester (which got already a small start-up scene plus Media City, Salford) ] We’re an internet company. We don’t need to be tied to a specific location. Hiring remote and having a distributed work force is far cheaper than hiring locally and making everyone come into an office. // &! bit.ly/1EvpTcY
San  Francisco  Palo  Alto  Mountain  View  growth  round  Google  Facebook  Venture  Capital  hunt  for  yield  Silicon  Valley  barriers  to  entry  cost  of  living  cost  of  entry  burn  rate  runway  Start-Up  lesson  Start-Up  advice  Seed  Angel  Investor  Micro  VC  bootstraped  bootstrapping  bootstrapped  New  York  Start-Up  Scene  London  Scene  Los  Angeles  Start-Up  Scene  asset  allocation  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  unintended  consequences  unknown  unkown  Taper  Unicorn  Decacorn  2015 
august 2015 by asterisk2a
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