asterisk2a + aggregate   61

(Live Ticker) Bank of England cuts rates - BBC News
The post-Brexit economic problems are down to consumer and business uncertainty and will not be solved by introducing monetary stimulus. By lowering interest rates, the Bank of England will distort the economy and potentially reduce growth. Philip Booth. Research director, Institute of Economic Affairs //&! More corp bond buying - bit.ly/2b6sHX3 //&! bit.ly/2aPQJYV &! bbc.in/2axiVxx &! Osborne at it w calling for lower business rate - bit.ly/2aGUYTN &! Noreena Hartz on it - bit.ly/2ayoT5g &! bbc.in/2aWLXY6
BOE  Brexit  Mark  Carney  fiscal  stimulus  Austerity  monetary  policy  bond  bubble  distortion  aggregate  demand  short-fall  Uncertainty  business  confidence 
august 2016 by asterisk2a
Keiser Report: Gold & World’s Debt Problems (Summer Solutions series E940) - YouTube
deflationary trap/liquidity trap - orthodox monetary policy w austerity = stagnation. & west is exporting deflation. // if it is good for consumers ... break up banks. // hedging is BS ... you double the system you double the risk. [...] banks are now bigger! ... ban most derivatives, and reintroduce glass stegall // Black-Schoeles - there is no such think as risk free rate and no such thing as the past reflect the future. risk is not equally distributed. [...] VAR is flawed. //
deflation  deflationary  NIRP  currency  war  currency  debasement  ZIRP  QE  Helicopter  Money  secular  stagnation  western  world  Abenomics  BOE  BOJ  Fed  ECB  economic  history  Richard  Koo  liquidity  trap  debt  overhang  balance  sheet  recession  consumer  debt  household  debt  mortgage  mortgage  market  mortgage  rates  distortion  hunt  for  yield  credit  boom  credit  bubble  PBOC  China  reflate  reflation  squeezed  middle  class  wage  growth  income  growth  income  distribution  income  disparity  working  poor  Precariat  Brexit  GFC  too  big  to  jail  productive  investment  underinvestment  austerity  history  productivity  gap  financial  instruments  investment  banking  global  economy  globalisation  globalization  derivatives  output  gap  productivity  recovery  neoliberal  neoliberalism  Chicago  School  neoclassical  economics  deregulation  Wall  Street  speculative  bubble  property  bubble  Beton  Gold  Betongold  stagnation  aggregate  demand  aggregate  demand  short-fall  too  big  to  bail  too  big  to  fail  TBTF  complexity  systemic  risk  systemrelevant  systemicrisk  systemrelevanz  zombie  bank  zombie  banks  non-performing  loan  leverage  hedge  Glass-Steagall  Black-Scholes  Equation 
july 2016 by asterisk2a
A hard truth for Leave voters: Brexit means big government
Britain has seen a renaissance in jobs since 2013, of that there is no doubt. But most of those extra jobs were among the self-employed or fell into categories that can only be described as insecure and low-paid. When companies finally took the plunge and advertised full-time jobs from 2014 onwards, around a third went to migrants. [...] It is this mostly older group of workers across the developed world, worried about their pay, pensions and conditions of employment, that want to slam the brakes on globalisation and reject the remedy proposed by big business: greater labour-market flexibility and only limited job protections. [ Globalisation as a great rebalancing of the world economy between the west and the rest (BRIC and co) ] [...] Only government can provide the cure, with a commitment to invest where the private sector cannot or will not go.
globalisation  globalization  squeezed  middle  class  Precariat  working  poor  job  security  job  insecurity  self-employment  neoliberal  neoliberalism  liberal  economic  reform  Agenda  2010  Zero  Hour  Contract  OECD  BRIC  USA  UK  Germany  France  economic  history  capitalism  capitalism  in  crisis  protectionism  Brexit  exploitation  crony  capitalism  tax  evasion  tax  avoidance  immigration  migration  Philip  Hammond  austerity  Workers  Union  Workers  Rights  Trade  Union  Theresa  May  Conservative  Party  nasty  Tories  budget  deficit  neoclassical  economics  Chicago  School  deflation  deflationary  aggregate  demand  aggregate  demand  short-fall  Richard  Koo  free  free  agreement  underinvestment  business  confidence  productivity  productivity  gap  productive  investment  output  output  gap  technological  unemployment  skills  economy  skills  gap  skill  gap  industrial  policy  Manufacturing 
july 2016 by asterisk2a
Up to 70% of people in developed countries 'have seen incomes stagnate' | Business | The Guardian
Research by the McKinsey Global Institute found that between 65% and 70% of people in 25 advanced countries saw no increase in their earnings between 2005 and 2014. The report found there had been a dramatic increase in the number of households affected by flat or falling incomes and that today’s younger generation was at risk of ending up poorer than their parents. Only 2% of households, 10 million people, lived through the period from 1993 to 2005 – a time of strong growth and falling unemployment – without seeing their incomes rise.
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july 2016 by asterisk2a
Technological Unemployment (2013) w Jacque Fresco
wikipedia Jacque Fresco // MORE AI, automation, robotics, augmented intelligence, self-driving cars = LESS AGGREGATE DEMAND (disposable income of the middle class, working class & working poor) [...] productivity has risen but incomes NOT! [...] & companies are making more money for shareholders & owners with less & less people (see Facebook) [...] Industry doesnt care abt people. They hire people because it hasnt been yet automated. [...] A JOBLESS RECOVERY & JOBLESS GDP GROWTH [...] routine middle class jobs eliminated fastest! [...] pace of destruction is greater than pace of creation of new jobs! [...] ie Lawyer Software searching through files via augmented intelligence //&! Humans Need Not Apply - youtu.be/7Pq-S557XQU //&! Jerry Kaplan ((re)distribute wealth more equally - youtu.be/JiiP5ROnzw8), Rifkin (Zero Marginal Cost), Paul Mason (post-capitalism) book //&! UBI a must in future - youtu.be/WMF-Z74C1QE &! youtu.be/mEV-kAjtm9U &! youtu.be/9pdU_Rkwzes
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july 2016 by asterisk2a
Andrew Mazzone Interviews James K. Galbraith
banks like property! more likely to lend to finance property than SME/SMB investment. because that investment is not propped up by the government. [...] min 6 subprime & credit bubble since 80's << behaviour of lenders [...] sensible people were given fraudulent debt instruments (no self-regulation, and regulators failed). [...] no prosecution because people who should have prosecuted those, didn't want to ruin their private future career. [...] min 15 - inequality and unemployment driven by inequality. [...] austerity is name of the game by the "establishment" - 20% of society that benefited from the bank bailout and reflation policy by central banks - [...] 19:15 - who do banks want to borrow in this environment?! austerity, aggregate demand shortfall, lack of confidence, volatility, uncertainty, credit bubble pain (liquidity trap) etc. [...] Solution ("an alternative way to the status quo, who made this mess): Fix Income Distribution thus Purchasing Power (aggregate demand, ie minimum wage), and restructure finance away from investment banking and speculation and derivatives towards real economy (ie tax heavily what is not real economy business) //&! James K. Galbraith on "Inequality and Instability: What's Ahead for the World Economy" - youtu.be/Mw4Bd9ols-E //&! James K. Galbraith - "The End of Normal" - youtu.be/PGFcB65l8Io
Gini  coefficient  income  distribution  1%  10%  20%  Super  Rich  property  bubble  London  rentier  rent-seeking  Help  to  Buy  Scheme  Help  to  Save  Funding  for  Lending  Scheme  underinvestment  infrastructure  investment  secular  stagnation  western  world  UK  USA  European  Union  deflation  deflationary  JAMESGALBRAITH  book  James  Kenneth  Galbraith  credit  bubble  credit  card  credit  card  debt  credit  boom  debt  servitude  speculation  speculative  bubble  speculative  bubbles  equity  bubble  reflate  reflation  GFC  recovery  austerity  Raghuram  Rajan  self-regulation  squeezed  middle  class  working  poor  Precariat  subprime  Wall  Street  regulation  regulators  Career  Politicians  politician  No  Representation  aggregate  demand  aggregate  demand  short-fall  liquidity  trap  retail  banking  investment  banking  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  Richard  Koo  inequality 
july 2016 by asterisk2a
Geographies of Austerity: Mark Blyth
EU bank bailout (incl Britain) = 40% of EU GDP (incl Britain) = 5 trillion Euros. AUSTERITY FOR WHOM?! // secular stagnation - ZIRP, NIRP, QE, austerity, liquidity trap, aggregate demand short-fall = creditors paradise. their debt will not be inflated away. deflation - deflationary environment. for the next 2-3 decades. = NO DRIVE TO INVEST IN PRODUCTIVE ASSETS! = productivity gap. [...] rentier paradise. [...] = interest formation (those who have, call the shots, status quo). [...] deflationary spiral (PIGS & Germany) exporting deflation ... getting more competitive [EU has 2015 a current account surplus, bought my USA] = Dr Wolfgang Schaeuble. [...] Fall of Centrists, rise of the SNP & UKIP (reactionary) ... Trump. [...] as investment rate (ie SME/SMB lending) stays same, does not grow = DEAD. Eurobonds/Investment Fund(UK, 5bn 5 years). [...] min 55 - deflationary politics (policy for 1-10-20% of society) is one way train. DEATH. especially w austerity and low wages/secular stagnation.
austerity  Tories  Conservative  Party  nasty  general  election  2010  general  election  2015  George  Osborne  Iain  Duncan  Smith  David  Cameron  Ed  Miliband  economic  history  Mark  Blyth  book  Richard  Koo  welfare  state  welfare  reform  bank  bailout  GFC  recovery  secular  stagnation  IMF  ChristineLagarde  Salami  Tactics  aggregate  demand  aggregate  demand  short-fall  liquidity  trap  fiscal  policy  Confidence  Fairy  monetary  policy  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  Tony  Blair  Gordon  Brown  European  Union  Euro  ECB  BOJ  PIGS  Pact  Schuldenbremse  Wolfgang  Schäuble  Angela  Merkel  Career  Politicians  politician  zombie  bank  zombie  banks  banking  systemic  risk  OMT  LTRO  MarioDraghi  trichet  BOE  deflation  deflationary  productivity  productivity  gap  productive  investment  underinvestment  infrastructure  investment  infrastructure  rentier  rent-seeking  Mark  Carney  Donald  Trump  business  consumer  TLTRO  non-performing  loan  NPL  Jens  Weidmann 
july 2016 by asterisk2a
CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICIT ON THE BALANCE OF PAYMENTS: THE MOST DAMNING STATISTIC!
If you want to understand how an economy is performing and how sustainable its economic growth then look at the current account balance. Officially it is often ignored and there are attempts to play down its significance. After all it is always only just a few years away from an election so the very short term is considered much more important than the long term strength and economic health of the economy. Dire straits is not an underestimate of the current damaged state of the UK economy and indeed many other western economies. [ affordable only bc of City of London (Banking and Co.)! - bit.ly/297c6D3 - Novara Media - The City: In Conversation with Tony Norfield ]
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june 2016 by asterisk2a
FLUCTUATIONS IN ECONOMIC ACTIVITY: ONLY ONE CAUSE
The financial crisis of 2006/7 turned into a recession prolonged by a failure to manage monetary demand efficiently to achieve target inflation. With the failure of Lehman Bros interbank markets froze and banks stopped commercial lending. Since then a mixture of quantitative easing and distortingly low interest rates has only managed to create the illusion of a boom as bubbles have developed in property and other asset prices.
GFC  economic  history  fiscal  policy  monetary  policy  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  distortion  M3  liquidity  trap  credit  growth  money  creation  process  money  supply  secular  stagnation  aggregate  demand  austerity  asset  bubble  asset  allocation  hunt  for  yield  western  world  UK  USA 
june 2016 by asterisk2a
Stocks are up. But it appears to us that the U.S. economy is going down. Go figure.
velocity is at 57yr low - WOW! the money that is in circulation is in less hands! the econ expanded according to GDP, but less and less $ reach on avg each hand. - "This is serious. The velocity of money tracks how often each dollar is used to buy something in the economy. Falling velocity shows that consumers and business are pulling back… becoming more reluctant to spend and invest… downsizing… and holding onto dollars rather than spending them. This has a similar effect as reducing the supply of money bidding for goods and services. Prices drop. Deflation, in other words. The bubble has developed a leak. The hot air is gushing out." //&! bit.ly/1MOxc9A //&! research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/M2V &! pieria.co.uk/articles/getting_things_wrong_federal_reserve_style - it is associated with stagnant NGDP [...] demand problem.
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april 2016 by asterisk2a
Chris Grayling dimisses concerns over economic impact of a Brexit
Yvette Cooper: Brexit won't prevent EU free movement to the UK - LIKE NORWAY CASE! - youtu.be/qa--kXGNhiE //&! IMF downgrade UK over Brexit fears - youtu.be/gfmVP3_TXNk - calling for fiscal stimulus!
Brexit  Chris  Grayling  Yvette  Cooper  liquidity  trap  secular  stagnation  fiscal  stimulus  IMF  OECD  austerity  2016  global  economy  China  credit  bubble  monetary  stimulus  aggregate  demand  aggregate  demand  short-fall  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  British  Pound  Sterling  Pact  Schuldenbremse  demographic  bubble  ageing  population  economic  history  recovery  sovereign  debt  crisis  PIGS  ChristineLagarde  George  Osborne  monetary  policy  Mark  Carney  BOE  ECB  MarioDraghi 
april 2016 by asterisk2a
Revolutionary politics in the UK
// yanis is liberal marxist // &! Will John McDonnell's fiscal rules work for Labour? Paul Mason Vs John Rentoul - youtu.be/0EISho5eSUc - OBR econometrics dictated by Treasury, George Osborne w wonky multipliers that don't fit w IMF models. IMF calls for fiscal stimulus! since late 2015 because China's credit bubble popped and global economy started to head south.
Yanis  Varoufakis  Paul  Mason  Labour  Party  Jeremy  Corbyn  Bernie  Sanders  Marxism  democracy  No  Representation  Super  Rich  1%  oligarchy  plutocracy  tax  evasion  tax  amnesty  tax  avoidance  Soziale  Marktwirtschaft  fairness  Social  Justice  economic  bank  bailout  GFC  austerity  Generationengerechtigkeit  revolving  door  lobby  Greed  crony  capitalism  shareholder  capitalism  profit  maximisation  profit  maximization  shareholder  value  Wall  Street  Main  Street  squeezed  middle  class  working  poor  Precariat  poverty  trap  economic  history  UK  globalisation  globalization  global  economy  self-regulation  deregulation  regulation  regulators  secular  stagnation  trickle-down  economics  free  market  exploitation  liberal  economic  reform  self-employment  job  security  job  insecurity  Zero  Hour  Contract  antitrust  winner  take  all  gini  coefficient  inequality  deprivation  poverty  John  McDonnell  austerity  aggregate  demand  Richard  Koo  Joseph  Stiglitz  Schuldenbremse  Fiscal  Pact  economic  history  neoliberal  neoliberalism  OBR  Chicago  School  neoclassical  economics  infrastructure  investment  liquidity  trap 
april 2016 by asterisk2a
Is Stephen Crabb the man to tackle this age of extreme inequality?
The Panama Papers will lead to the dynamiting of Tory credibility, but new work and pensions secretary, Stephen Crabb, is unlikely to prove the saviour of his party’s reputation. [...] Last autumn’s U-turn over cuts to working tax credits was a smoke screen. The axe will fall, only not everywhere, not just yet. From this week, existing universal credit claimants will lose up to £220 a month as the work allowance is pared back faster than the national living wage increases to replace it. [...] Short of taking a vow of poverty and retreating like Charles V to a monastery, there is nothing he can say now that will change the perception that he is at the head of a party that has a fundamental personal interest in preserving the advantages of the 1%.
Stephen  Crabb  nasty  party  tax  credit  Universal  Iain  Duncan  Smith  welfare  reform  welfare  state  poverty  trap  poverty  child  poverty  social  safety  net  sanctions  JSA  ESA  PIP  Disabled  vulnerable  mental  health  austerity  George  Osborne  David  Cameron  Tories  Conservative  Positioning  PR  spin  doctor  manufactured  consent  snap  judgement  prejudice  triple-lock  pension  Generationengerechtigkeit  fairness  bank  bailout  budget  deficit  aggregate  demand  Budget2016  budget2015  general  election  2015  election  campaign  promises  Funding  constituency  Super  Rich  oligarchy  plutocracy  Confidence  Fairy  1%  democracy  food  poverty  fuel  poverty  tax  evasion  tax  amnesty  tax  avoidance  Panama  Papers  offshore  banking  tax  loopoles  lobby  No  Representation  Career  Politicians  Gini  coefficient  inequality  social  mobility  income  mobility  deprivation  crony  capitalism  shareholder  capitalism  corporate  welfare  HMRC  revolving  door  corporate  tax  rate  capital  gains  tax  DLA  Independent  Living  Fund  Holyrood 
april 2016 by asterisk2a
Workers or Shirkers? Ian Hislop's Victorian Benefits
An entertaining, provocative film in which Ian explores the colourful history behind one of the most explosive issues of our times - welfare: who deserves to be helped, and who doesn't. [... ] all hate, no heart. just spreadsheets. at Whitehall, no 11. [...] Benefit Street = victorian freak show/circus of curiosities [...] writing about others, "othering" them. demonising them or putting them on pedestals, making them saints. [...] IDS "a single mother wo aspiration is a product of the system" would correct that, a product of her environment (society) [ie gentrification - poor living w poor door to door. and everyone is looking down on them.].
Universal  Basic  Income  class  warfare  poverty  trap  child  poverty  tax  credit  tax  free  austerity  DWP  Iain  Duncan  Smith  ESA  JSA  WCA  Disabled  vulnerable  mental  health  civil  society  Gesellschaft  Gesellschaftswerte  substance  abuse  self-medication  deprivation  structural  unemployment  poverty  drug  addiction  drug  abuse  Public  Services  Social  Services  NHS  sick  population  capitalism  Soziale  Marktwirtschaft  Soziale  Gerechtigkeit  society  moral  beliefs  ethics  philosophy  Universal  working  poor  low  pay  low  Precariat  precarious  work  mobility  mobility  education  policy  Gini  coefficient  economic  history  Super  Rich  1%  Establishment  Privileged  Toff  No  Representation  Career  Politicians  squeezed  middle  class  class-warfare  Sozialpolitik  Integrationspolitik  immigration  migration  UK  microeconomic  policy  macroeconomic  policy  meritocracy  meritocratic  stigma  Food  Bank  crony  capitalism  bailout  corporate  welfare  tax  evasion  tax  amnesty  tax  avoidance  shareholder  capitalism  lobby  revolving  door  ladder  Service  Sector  Jobs  aggregate  demand  fairness  Zero  Hour  Contract  part-time  incentive  self-employment  Contractor  working  class  Trade  Union  neoliberal  neoliberalism  Workers  Rights  Workers  Union  economic  justice  economic  tax  welfare  welfare  poverty  education  oppo 
april 2016 by asterisk2a
Yanis Varoufakis: »MONEY AND POWER«, Public Lecture 2015-11-04
3rd bailout loan $0 went to Greece. All to pay off banks. extend & pretend. 1st: ~90% went to the banks. [...] ESM does not exist [...] banking union plan not progressing at all. //&! Yanis Varoufakis @Oxford Union - youtu.be/zWB6lY2GBjQ - ACADEMIA LACKS ANTI-ESTABLISHMENT ATTITUDE! Because going against the grain has become anti-reputation. [...] it's all about expectations, predictions about where S&P500 will be in 12 months. [...] regression between theory and reality. economists have never been humble. [ see Wall Street cottage factory of analysis and prediction shops ] [...] if you torture the data and model enough it will confess. [< EU monetary union based on theory ] [...] [34:00] Brussels is technically incompetent and will not reform itself. I am a libertarian marxist. Schumpeter. true creative destruction. great wealth currently created - all going to 1%. = not humanitarian. not democratic. [...] 41:00 Q&A, <48:50> gov budget not same as household budget; George Osborne.
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april 2016 by asterisk2a
Budget 2016 shows Osborne's failure on debt, surplus, GDP
// higher in-work poverty
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march 2016 by asterisk2a
Budget 2016: Evan Davis grills Sajid Javid on the numbers - BBC Newsnight
turning a banking crisis into a budget deficit blowout and blaming it on poor working age people with some benefits to their name. //&! What will it be the Budget be remembered for? DEBATE - BBC Newsnight - youtu.be/iOrhLL-Pe3E - productivity is about increasing public and private investment, and private investment has been falling year after year. tax cuts ie corporate tax rate, do not increase private investment. and household debt/consumer debt/credit car/car loan/student debt is rising and rising, taking up the slack that Osborne is cutting from the budget.
budget2016  budget2010  bank  bailout  austerity  budget  deficit  economic  history  Richard  Koo  UK  GFC  George  Osborne  Sajid  Javid  dogma  ideology  income  tax  receipts  corporate  tax  rate  HMRC  tax  evasion  tax  avoidance  DWP  fairness  Generationengerechtigkeit  triple-lock  pension  pension  obligation  babyboomers  recovery  aggregate  demand  shareholder  capitalism  secular  stagnation  neoliberal  neoliberalism  trickle-down  economics  free  market  Positioning  PR  spin  doctor  George  Osborne  David  Cameron  budget2015  Fiscal  Pact  Schuldenbremse  Brexit 
march 2016 by asterisk2a
Iain Duncan Smith resigns: Why? What next? - BBC Newsnight
youtu.be/e2XyYgkYNFE - Resignation stuck a knife into George Osborne. // working age on the bottom of the pile bore the burden of austerity. [...] weakness of labour party could mean Conservative will be in power for a long time. [...] this is big shot of Tory-out vs Tory-in. They wanted Osborne to fail. // tax credits, Google Tax Deal, ESA, PIP/DLA, .... //&! Iain Duncan Smith First interview since his shock resignation - youtu.be/hr5-WbzevyM &! youtu.be/ntKf3HtVNxs - lower gov income (income tax receipts and corp tax) pushed things ahead. No 10 ran DWP ... // Marr Show papers: IDS's resignation and budget shambles (20 Mar 16) - youtu.be/ZkNOxXZW9Kw //&! Budget 2016: Evan Davis grills Sajid Javid on the numbers - BBC Newsnight - youtu.be/L0TBTbfNgCw //&! Iain Duncan Smith Resignation Nothing To Do With EU - youtu.be/MJr2WmVtV1c &! youtu.be/_nAHvGZYkfY &! youtu.be/kvmOPZ0wP3o &! youtu.be/Hu_pnQBITPI
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march 2016 by asterisk2a
How damaged is George Osborne by IDS resignation?
George Osborne: chief tactician and patron, a man whose word makes or wrecks careers.
That was the view of many Tory MPs for a very long time.
Now, many doubt he will ever be their leader, or even the chancellor much longer.
It's not that they think David Cameron is poised to sack him or that he's about to resign, as Labour demand.
They simply believe a swift leadership election is highly likely whatever the result of 23 June's EU referendum. If it does come that soon there will be, one predicts, a "genocide of the Cameroons and Osbornites".
A stubbornly enduring deficit, a tax credit U-turn, and the sheer numbers of MPs who have chosen to back a leave vote at the referendum have seen Osborne's authority leak.
A weekend of melodrama has - in one Tory MP's view - burst the dam.
George  Osborne  budget2016  Iain  Duncan  Smith  Tories  Conservative  Party  nasty  Brexit  austerity  Boris  Johnson  Westminster  Toff  Establishment  Privileged  secular  stagnation  dogma  ideology  aggregate  demand  Richard  Koo  economic  history  budget  deficit 
march 2016 by asterisk2a
Pensions stance creates budgetary mayhem
Disability benefits: they are forecast to increase by £2bn over the next five years. Could do something there. Sickness benefits: they are predicted to rise by about £1bn. Might be able to save some of that. But what's this? It's rising by £15bn over the coming five years. That's the one. Off our Martian goes to see the chancellor. "What are pensions?" she asks. That is the problem the government is struggling with. Its political refusal to touch pensions, or pensioner benefits, has in a stroke protected the single biggest cost in the welfare budget. And the cost that is rising the most. [ AND ADD INTO THE SAME BUCKET THE NHS and PUBLIC HEALTH BUDGET! ] Welcome to your new job, Stephen Crabb.
DWP  Iain  Duncan  Smith  pension  obligation  Tories  Conservative  Party  Party  Funding  constituency  austerity  budget2016  budget2015  babyboomers  PIP  DLA  ESA  general  election  2015  general  election  2020  election  campaign  promises  George  Osborne  David  Cameron  Stephen  Crabb  Generationengerechtigkeit  fairness  aggregate  demand  secular  stagnation  OAP  demographic  bubble  ageing  population  NHS  public  health  health  care  budget  health  care  cost  health  care  spending  sick  population  health  crisis  Universal  Credit  Richard  Koo  Schuldenbremse  dogma  ideology  Fiscal  Pact  European  Union  trickle-down  economics  free  market  neoliberal  neoliberalism  policy  folly  policy  error  welfare  reform  welfare  state  social  safety  net 
march 2016 by asterisk2a
Stephen Crabb: 'No further plans' for welfare cuts
BIG BREAKDOWN W INFOGRAPHIC OF THE BUDGET and DWP Budget // A Downing Street spokesman said the government would still deliver on its commitment to save £12bn from welfare by the end of the Parliament in 2020. [...] The Conservative leadership has been under fire - including from some of its own backbenchers - over the cuts to disability payments, which came at the same time as tax cuts for higher earners.
Mr Duncan Smith - who resigned on Friday - said this flew in the face of Mr Cameron and Mr Osborne's oft-repeated claim that "we are all in this together". [...] [ CAMERON ] "None of this would be possible if it wasn't for the actions of this government and the work of the chancellor in turning our economy around." //&! No more welfare cuts, for now - bbc.in/1pGxCV4 - still 2015 budget post-election had £12bn in the card!
budget2016  DWP  Iain  Duncan  Smith  Stephen  Crabb  PIP  DLA  tax  free  income  David  Cameron  George  Osborne  Richard  Koo  aggregate  demand  income  tax  receipts  budget2015  ESA  House  of  Lords  Disabled  vulnerable  tax  credit  child  tax  credit  working  tax  credit  working  poor  Precariat  precarious  work  Zero  Hour  Contract  Contractor  part-time  child  poverty  Gini  coefficient  social  mobility  income  mobility  education  policy  Nicky  Morgan 
march 2016 by asterisk2a
Disability benefits U-turn leaves Cameron with £4.4bn to find
David Cameron has been forced to concede that a £4.4bn black hole created by the U-turn over disability benefits will not be filled by further cuts to welfare as he fought to shore up his credibility following the shock resignation of Iain Duncan Smith. The spending climbdown was announced on Monday by Stephen Crabb, the new work and pensions secretary, an hour after Cameron addressed the political crisis engulfing the Conservative party by offering his support to George Osborne and praise for the work of Duncan Smith. [...] but the Treasury clarified the remarks by stressing that there were no plans to fill the £4.4bn gap caused by dropping PIP reforms with further cuts in welfare spending. &! bbc.in/1S10VIg
budget2016  austerity  PIP  DLA  ESA  DWP  welfare  reform  welfare  state  Iain  Duncan  Smith  social  safety  net  poverty  trap  poverty  child  poverty  George  Osborne  David  Cameron  Stephen  Crabb  PR  positioning  spin  doctor  Tories  Westminster  Brexit  Boris  Johnson  Constituency  Party  Funding  general  election  2020  general  election  2015  Manifesto  fairness  Generationengerechtigkeit  babyboomers  dogma  ideology  trickle-down  economics  Free  Market  aggregate  demand  policy  folly  policy  error  Disabled  vulnerable  NHS  mental  health 
march 2016 by asterisk2a
Work and Pensions Secretary Iain Duncan Smith QUITS Cabinet with vicious swipe at George Osborne over shambolic disability benefit cut U-turn Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3499499/Work-Pensions-Secretary-Iain-Duncan-Smith-QUITS-Cabin
[ we are all in this together ] [IDS PIP cuts] 'not defensible' alongside the tax breaks for the wealthy in this week's Budget. [...] He branded slash in benefits for the disabled as being 'indefensible.' IDS hit out at Osborne for lack of awareness and for letting the welfare system be 'salami-sliced' [...] 'I am unable to watch passively whilst certain policies are enacted in order to meet the fiscal self-imposed restraints that I believe are more and more perceived as distinctly political rather than in the national economic interest,' he wrote. The former Tory leader and standard-bearer for the Eurosceptic Right of the party admitted he wanted to cut benefits enjoyed by wealthy pensioners, but these plans were blocked by the Chancellor and the Prime Minister. [...] Mr Duncan Smith believed the Chancellor was too sly and devious in the way he went about balancing the nation’s books. [ Osborne wanted also to increase VAT Solar Panels ]
Iain  Duncan  Smith  DWP  PIP  budget2016  tax  evasion  tax  avoidance  tax  code  Brexit  general  election  2020  David  Cameron  Leadership  Tories  Conservative  Party  nasty  Manifesto  general  election  2015  election  campaign  promises  Jeremy  Hunt  austerity  welfare  reform  welfare  state  social  safety  net  babyboomers  Generationengerechtigkeit  fairness  Disabled  vulnerable  dogma  ideology  neoliberal  neoliberalism  tax  credit  child  tax  credit  working  tax  credit  trickle-down  economics  economic  history  Richard  Koo  industrial  policy  aggregate  demand  secular  stagnation  demographic  bubble  ESA  JSA  poverty  trap  poverty  child  poverty  DLA  solar  energy  solar  power  policy  folly  policy  error  Career  Politicians  Nicky  Morgan 
march 2016 by asterisk2a
Bank of England blames falling pound on Brexit fears
The BoE said disappointing business investment and the weaker outlook for global trade would offset the impact of a cheaper pound and keep inflation in check in the short term before a rise to its 2% target within the next two years.

The Bank’s nine-strong monetary policy committee (MPC) also unanimously voted to keep its quantitative easing asset purchase scheme on hold at £375bn in response to a mixed bag of indicators that it said would keep GDP growth on an upward, though subdued path. [...] [ BREXIT EFFECT, sterling down] It may also delay some spending decisions and depress growth in aggregate demand in the near term. Overall, however, the committee judges that the outlook for domestic activity to be little changed from the time of the February inflation report,” the MPC said. [...] [ CARNEY ALSO SUPPORTS FISCAL STIMULUS! ]
ZIRP  NIRP  QE  BOE  Mark  Carney  budget2016  UK  wage  growth  nominal  GDP  targeting  inflation  targeting  austerity  fiscal  policy  monetary  policy  George  Osborne  recovery  secular  stagnation  underinvestment  business  confidence  business  cycle  liquidity  trap  Richard  Koo  zombie  consumer  zombie  banks  Brexit  aggregate  demand  economic  history  fiscal  stimulus  Pact  Schuldenbremse 
march 2016 by asterisk2a
Tax rise risk from George Osborne's 'inflexible' budget target - BBC News
[ sounds great as headline, but economically and historically bullshit ] The Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) said that Mr Osborne's pledge to run a budget surplus "in normal times" from 2019-20 was simple but would require a "precarious balancing act".
The result could be "big tax rises or spending cuts with very little notice", the IFS concluded. [...] "The rule has the merit of simplicity and transparency but is very inflexible and this could come at a cost," the IFS said. [...] "How he responds to any further unpleasant fiscal surprises may, more than anything we have seen so far, come to define his period as chancellor," said Paul Johnson, director of the IFS.
Schuldenbremse  Fiscal  Pact  austerity  budget2016  policy  error  policy  folly  aggregate  demand  Richard  Koo  IFS  George  Osborne  Career  Politicians 
march 2016 by asterisk2a
Budget 2016: Osborne's economic fitness regime - BBC News
[2015] 80% OF ECONOMY CONSUMER SPENDING! - The economy has enjoyed what Andrew Goodwin of Oxford Economics describes as a "sugar rush" -the equivalent of a big tax cut - or 'fiscal stimulus' - through lower petrol prices. The economy grew by 2.2% last year; 80% of that growth was down to consumer spending. "That [growth] strikes us as some distance below par given the tailwinds we have had," Mr Goodwin says. And after the sugar rush comes the sugar crash: growth is likely to be revised down in the years to come because of global economic weakness.
budget2016  budget2015  George  Osborne  policy  folly  policy  error  zombie  consumer  consumer  debt  household  debt  credit  card  debt  car  loan  student  debt  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  mortgage  rates  mortgage  market  property  bubble  Oil  price  commodity  prices  aggregate  demand  distortion  underinvestment  IFS  OBR  income  tax  receipts  HMRC  job  creation  Service  Sector  Jobs  working  poor  low  income  low  pay  squeezed  middle  class  Consumerism  Industrial 
march 2016 by asterisk2a
ECB reveals surprise stimulus moves - BBC News
[C]ut its main interest rate from 0.05% to 0% as part of a package of measures intended to revive the eurozone economy.
The bank will also expand its quantitative easing programme from €60bn to €80bn a month.
The ECB also decided to further cut its bank deposit rate, from minus 0.3% to minus 0.4%.
The measures, including the decision to cut the main interest rate, were more radical than investors had expected. John Hardy, head of currency strategy at Saxo Bank, said: "This was a much bigger bazooka than the market was expecting and shows the ECB trying to get ahead of the confidence curve after learning its lesson in December."
The stimulus measures announced three months ago have largely failed to drive economic growth higher or boost inflation. //&! bit.ly/1TP0XJJ - Volles Risiko &! bit.ly/1P8hncF &! bit.ly/1RCF3Tp &! Market Reaction - bit.ly/1LeOrjo &! bit.ly/1RTBJ95 - no investment bc aggregate demand not rising //&! bbc.in/225Eexl
ECB  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  OMT  inflation  targeting  LTRO  TLTRO  deflation  secular  stagnation  deflationary  Oil  price  commodity  prices  squeezed  middle  class  demographic  bubble  zombie  banks  global  economy  Richard  Koo  liquidity-trap  liquidity  trap  underinvestment  aggregate  demand  distortion 
march 2016 by asterisk2a
Ex-MPC member says rates will stay low until 2021 - BBC News
Blanchflower: Global economy "feels a little bit like 2008" Interest rates will likely fall further in Britain and remain at near record low levels until 2021, [...] Blanchflower described the backdrop to the committee's decision in March 2009 to cut rates to 0.5% as catastrophic. He said the MPC at the time had wished to avoid a death spiral. Britain was plunged into its deepest-ever recession in 2008 as confidence in banks collapsed and investment dried up. "We cut rates in November 2008 by 150 basis points (1.5%). It was clear that we should have cut by more but didn't because of the panic that it might have caused," he said. "It was absolutely clear that this (the financial crisis) was something we had not seen in a generation. We learned that the scale of the shock was enormous." [...] mortgage rates are 31% lower than before the crisis, while savers may have lost £106bn due to record low rates. //&! bbc.in/1YeqV87 &! bbc.in/1LGOxAf - central banks understated deflation pressure!
ZIRP  NIRP  QE  BOE  UK  global  economy  recovery  aggregate  demand  property  bubble  underinvestment  austerity  George  Osborne  speculative  bubbles  speculative  speculation  mortgage  market  macroprudential  policy  Mark  Carney  Help  to  Buy  Scheme  Help  to  Save  Right  to  Buy  Buy-to-Let  subprime  car  loan  credit  card  debt  zombie  consumer  zombie  corporations  zombie  banks  Richard  Koo  liquidity  trap  secular  stagnation  economic  history  GFC  household  debt  private  debt  consumer  debt  David  Blanchflower  Danny  Blanchflower  financial  repression  hunt  for  yield  asset  allocation  distortion  Super  Cycle  junk  bond  Gini  coefficient  deflationary  deflation  Taper  QT  monetary  policy  fiscal  policy  Pact  Schuldenbremse  BIS  ECB  Fed  BOJ  credit  bubble  PBOC  hot-money 
march 2016 by asterisk2a
German Banks Told To Start Hoarding Cash | Zero Hedge
In order to generate artificial economic growth, the ECB wants banks to make as many loans as possible, no matter how stupid or idiotic. They believe that economic growth is simply a function of loans. The more money that’s loaned out, the more the economy will grow. This is the sort of theory that works really well in an economic textbook. But it doesn’t work so well in a history textbook. Cheap money encourages risky behavior. It gives banks an incentive to give ‘no money down’ loans to homeless people with no employment history. It creates bubbles (like the housing bubble from 10 years ago), and ultimately, financial panics (like the banking crisis from 8 years ago). Banks are supposed to be conservative, responsible managers of other people’s money. When central bank policies penalize that practice, bad things tend to happen.
Richard  Koo  aggregate  demand  austerity  fiscal  policy  Pact  Schuldenbremse  economic  history  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  distortion  financial  repression  hunt  for  yield  speculative  bubbles  speculative  speculation  Venture  Capital  Mutual  Fund  Private  Equity  reflate  reflation  recovery  GFC  debtoverhang  liquidity  trap  zombie  banks  deleveraging  Debt  Super  Cycle  secular  stagnation  consumer  wage  stagnation  squeezed  middle  class  disposable  income  discretionary  spending  marginal  propensity  to  consume  tax  evasion  tax  avoidance  oligarchy  plutocracy  Super  Rich  1%  household  car  loan  credit  card  student  loan  student  loan  student  Bubble  generation  rent  OMT  job  creation  Service  Sector  Jobs  working  poor  precarious  work  Precariat  Zero  Hour  Contract  Contractor  Leiharbeit  Zeitarbeit  Agenda  2010  low  pay  low  income  TLTRO  LTRO  monetary  transmission  mechanism  velocity  of  money 
march 2016 by asterisk2a
Over 80% Of Jobs Added In January Were Minimum Wage Earners | Zero Hedge
most of the jobs that were created, if only on a goalseeked, seasonally adjusted basis, were of the lowest paying, worst possible quality as has been the case for the past 7 years as the BLS desperately seeks to "pad" its political mandate of providing proof in a recovery which however is impossible if it were to tell the truth. //&! https://www.reddit.com/r/Economics/comments/48xbro/jobs_report_242000_jobs_added_unemployment_rate/d0njzvb //&! http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-03-04/past-year-us-added-360000-waiters-and-only-12000-manufacturing-workers &! http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-03-04/president-obama-takes-economic-victory-lap-after-biggest-wage-drop-record
UK  USA  job  creation  Service  Sector  Jobs  minimum  wage  low  pay  low  income  precarious  work  Precariat  BLS  HMRC  DWP  Iain  Duncan  Smith  George  Osborne  David  Cameron  aggregate  demand  Richard  Koo  consumer  debt  household  debt  credit  card  debt  car  loan  secular  stagnation  recovery  GFC  austerity  trickle-down  economics  neoliberalism  neoliberal  living  wage  tax  credit  FOI  Freedom  of  Information  Act  free  market  social  safety  net  welfare  state  housing  benefit  working  poor  economic  history  squeezed  middle  class 
march 2016 by asterisk2a
David Graeber on a Fair Future Economy - YouTube
13:30 - BOE paper, austerity claims are bogus. the confidence fairy et al //&! The truth is out: money is just an IOU, and the banks are rolling in it David Graeber. The Bank of England's dose of honesty throws the theoretical basis for austerity out the window - bit.ly/1fWKC0s - What this means is that the real limit on the amount of money in circulation is not how much the central bank is willing to lend, but how much government, firms, and ordinary citizens, are willing to borrow. Government spending is the main driver in all this (and the paper does admit, if you read it carefully, that the central bank does fund the government after all). So there's no question of public spending "crowding out" private investment. It's exactly the opposite.
austerity  BOE  David  Graeber  George  Osborne  economic  history  Schuldenbremse  IMF  OECD  G20  recovery  aggregate  demand  IOU  Mark  Carney  underinvestment  productivity  output  gap  job  creation  monetary  theory  monetary  policy  monetary  system  Fiscal  Pact  Wolfgang  Schäuble  NIRP  ZIRP  QE  policy  book  Richard  Koo  secular  stagnation 
march 2016 by asterisk2a
Iain Duncan Smith: the latest MP to pretend council cuts are not his fault | Public Leaders Network | The Guardian
[ comparing gov budget and council budgets to the liking of a company or household! ] [ Iain Duncan Smith ] My only advice to local council[s] is that if you get the balance right, you should be able to manage this in a way that is not headline news – doing it with better efficiency. It is like any company, [ ... /// ... ] In the case of Enfield, which has had to make savings of £118m since 2010 – 49% in real terms according to a council spokeswoman – Duncan Smith’s proclamations are an affront. [...] Duncan Smith’s ill-informed pontifications, Taylor says, are an exercise in power without responsibility
Richard  Koo  Iain  Duncan  Smith  George  Osborne  David  Cameron  Jeremy  Hunt  nasty  party  Tories  Conservative  dogma  ideology  trickle-down  economics  neoliberalism  neoliberal  Council  Public  Services  Social  Services  Police  NHS  child  protection  safety  net  welfare  state  economic  history  aggregate  demand  austerity  UK  deprivation 
march 2016 by asterisk2a
Chinese central bank chief hints at more stimulus for slowing economy | Business | The Guardian
China still has more room and tools in its monetary policy to tackle the slowdown, People’s Bank governor Zhou Xiaochuan tells G20 finance meeting
China  credit  bubble  aggregate  demand  austerity  western  world  G20  fiscal  policy  monetary  policy 
march 2016 by asterisk2a
Konjunktur: Welthandel erlebt schwächstes Jahr seit Krise - SPIEGEL ONLINE
Die schwächelnde Nachfrage aus den Schwellenländern hat 2015 zum schlimmsten Jahr für den Welthandel seit dem Ende der Finanzkrise werden lassen. Die Nachricht schürt wachsende Besorgnis über die Entwicklung der Weltwirtschaft.
China  credit  bubble  2015  2016  global  economy  global  trade  western  world  secular  stagnation  economic  history  BRIC  emerging  middle  class  squeezed  middle  class  wage  stagnation  aggregate  demand  recovery  Richard  Koo  austerity  Fiscal  Pact  Schuldenbremse  UK  USA  Europe  Japan  Abenomics 
march 2016 by asterisk2a
Weltwirtschaft: Ökonomen halten Ende des Wachstums für unvermeidlich - SPIEGEL ONLINE
Weltwirtschaft: Ökonomen halten Ende des Wachstums für unvermeidlich [...] Ein Beispiel: Wenn das Bruttosozialprodukt eines Landes 10 Milliarden Euro beträgt und um eine Milliarde Euro wächst, dann entspricht das einer Steigerung von zehn Prozent. Wenn das BIP aber 1000 Milliarden Euro beträgt, dann müsste die Wirtschaft schon um 100 Milliarden Euro wachsen, um ein Wachstum von zehn Prozent zu schaffen. Wächst das BIP wie vorher um eine Milliarde Euro, entspricht das nur noch einer Steigerung von 0,1 Prozent. Die Wirtschaft wäre dann sozusagen ausgewachsen. Die alten Zeiten kehren nicht mehr zurück [...] Sollten die Ökonomen recht haben, hätte das für Staat und Sozialsysteme einschneidende Folgen: Die Planung von Bundeshaushalt oder Rentenkasse geht von einem Wachstum irgendwo zwischen ein und zwei Prozent pro Jahr aus. [...] Die Wirtschaft "unabhängiger vom Wachstum gestalten"
G20  George  Osborne  UK  austerity  Europe  Schuldenbremse  Fiscal  Pact  Germany  Wolfgang  Schäuble  Angela  Merkel  secular  stagnation  Richard  Koo  aggregate  demand  budget  deficit  economic  history  finite  resources  resource  depletion  economic  growth  global  economy  policy  monetary  policy  policy  error  policy  folly  Japan  Abenomics  demographic  bubble  ageing  population  AI  artificial  intelligence  Robotics  self-driving  cars  autonomous  car  structural  unemployment  unemployment  long-term  unemployment  youth  unemployment  productivity  output  gap  squeezed  middle  class  Precariat  working  poor  low  pay  low  income  precarious  work  Zero  Hour  Contract  Contractor  underinvestment  marginal  cost  competitiveness  energy  policy  energy  price  flat  world  borderless  globalization  globalisation  economics  of  abundance  post-capitalism  Larry  Summers  Gini  coefficient  inequality  Super  Rich  1%  plutocracy  oligarchy  democracy  social  democracy  Soziale  Marktwirtschaft  trickle-down  economics  dogma  ideology  free  market  self-regulation  neoliberalism  neoliberal  education  policy  income  inequality  GDP  nominal  GDP  targeting  inflation  targeting  liquidity  trap  credit  bubble  distortion  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  USA 
february 2016 by asterisk2a
George Osborne warns of further spending cuts in Budget - BBC News
[ LOL! ] But recent figures showing the UK economy was smaller than expected meant savings must be found in his Budget statement on 17 March, he said. [...] Mr Osborne said he would rather look for extra cuts now than risk breaking his own manifesto commitment to achieve a surplus in the budget by the end of this Parliament. The chancellor did not completely rule out raising taxes in the event of a further slowdown in growth, but said that now was not the time for "significant" tax hikes. [...] I'm absolutely clear we've got to root our country in the principle that we live within our means and that we have economic security." [...] "whole purpose of our economic plan was to have a budget surplus. [...] we got big challenges at home to make the economy more productive even as more people get work. [ because having part of your budget in the property bubble is so productive ] [...] I will do what is required to keep our country safe and secure." [ NOT CHANGING PLANS ie U-TURN ]
UK  secular  stagnation  austerity  Richard  Koo  Japan  economic  history  dogma  ideology  IMF  OECD  ChristineLagarde  economists  Paul  Krugman  Joseph  Stiglitz  Robert  Reich  David  Cameron  Tories  nasty  party  recovery  aggregate  demand  Conservative  macroeconomic  policy  microeconomic  policy  fiscal  policy  monetary  policy  Mark  Carney  BOE  City  of  London  HMRC  tax  evasion  tax  avoidance  self-employment  corporate  tax  rate  Service  Sector  Jobs  working  poor  multiplier  precarious  work  Precariat  low  pay  low  income  tax  credit  housing  benefit  income-based  JSA  Zero  Hour  Contract  Contractor  wage  stagnation  stagnation  DWP  Iain  Duncan  Smith  skills  gap  STEM  productivity  output  gap  Manufacturing  industrial  policy  neoliberalism  neoliberal  trickle-down  economics  Chicago  School  JohnMaynardKeynes  keynes  Keynesianism  Pact  Schuldenbremse  Wolfgang  Schäuble  Angela  Merkel  European  Union  property  bubble  apprenticeships  value  creation  added  value  underinvestment  productive  investment  infrastructure  investment  competitiveness  marginal  cost  energy  price  energy  policy  Hinkley  Point  C  nuclear  power  nuclear  waste  subsidies  subsidizing  corporate  welfare  lobbyist  lobby  Lobbyin 
february 2016 by asterisk2a
Tasting menu: Audio highlights from the February 20th 2016 edition by The Economist
"liberal centrist politicians are not up to the job" always claiming the confidence fairy will show up if they stop what they are doing! "faith in monetary policy is wavering" ... emerging market debt bubble (through hunt for yield, QE, ZIRP, NIRP, credit bubble originating from China) is unwinding and threatening global system stability.
aggregate  demand  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  China  ECB  BOJ  Abenomics  Taper  QT  Fed  distortion  hot-money  austerity  Richard  Koo  Fiscal  Pact  Schuldenbremse  George  Osborne  secular  stagnation  western  world  Wolfgang  Schäuble  Angela  Merkel  European  Union  Mark  Carney  BOE  property  bubble  policy  monetary  policy  economic  history  Gini  coefficient  inequality  tax  evasion  tax  avoidance  underinvestment  productivity  output  gap  lost  decade  lost  generation  Generationengerechtigkeit  bank  bailout  fairness  recovery  unintended  consequences 
february 2016 by asterisk2a
IEA warns consumers of spike in oil prices - BBC News
[ Saudie's playing game of who has the deepest pockets against USA and Canada ] The International Energy Agency (IEA) is warning consumers not to let cheap oil lull them into a false sense of security amid forecasts of a price spike by 2021. In a report, the IEA said it expects prices to start recovering in 2017. But it forecasts that will be followed by a sharp jump in price as supply shrinks following under-investment by struggling producers.
OPEC  shale  gas  fracking  Saudi  Arabia  aggregate  demand  BRIC  China  credit  bubble  commodity  prices  secular  stagnation  Russia  Middle  East  Iran  Iraq  Oil  price  petrodollar  petrodollars  Petroleum  Industry  fossil  fuel  underinvestment 
february 2016 by asterisk2a
This Letting Agent Admits The Housing Shortage Is Good News For Landlords - BuzzFeed News
[ Lord Adair Turner book & Richard Koo; banks tend 2 lend 2 property & land rather than productivity/businesses. risk averse, if the family cant pay the mortgage any more, than at least u have not lost all the money! less risky! Its also partly rentier behaviour of banks. // also BOE has to be concerned about future disposable income; rent & utilities eating up 50%-75% of income thus less for consumption! ] “Landlords’ balance sheets are looking healthier than at any point since 2014, and property investors are looking at an excellent rate of return from their portfolios.” Gill warned that changes to stamp duty announced in chancellor George Osborne’s Autumn Statement and due to take effect on 1 April – people selling buy-to-let investments will pay an extra 3% – were bad news for landlords. But overall, the “consistent and developing lack of housing for across all tenures, for a spiralling population” meant the level of demand for rental properties would not reduce, he said.
property  bubble  speculative  bubbles  asset  bubble  asset  allocation  macroprudential  policy  Generationengerechtigkeit  generation  rent  Housing  Crisis  social  affordable  distortion  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  aggregate  demand  Right  to  Buy  Buy-to-Let  Help  to  Buy  Scheme  Help  to  Save  policy  folly  policy  error  consumer  debt  household  debt  budget  deficit  recovery  mortgage  market  credit  bubble  GFC  bank  bailout  BOE  zombie  banks  rentier  rent-seeking  Richard  Koo  underinvestment  productive  investment  infrastructure  investment  zombie  consumer  industrial  policy  economic  history  Mark  Carney  financial  repression  behavioral  finance  behavioral  economics  herding  herd  hunt  for  yield  leverage  margin  trading  equity  bubble  Gini  coefficient  disposable  income  discretionary  spending  VAR  CDO  CDS  risk  aversion  squeezed  middle  class  secular  stagnation  inequality  UK  generational  contract  lost  generation  constituency  Tories  Conservative  Party  nasty  David  Cameron  George  Osborne  general  election  2015  general  election  2020  fiscal  policy  austerity  monetary  policy  liquidity  trap 
february 2016 by asterisk2a
What Really Caused the Crisis and What to Do About It - YouTube
"There are not perfect markets, and there is no perfect planner. [...] we will never arrive at perfect solutions. [...] market will never allocate perfectly ... [...] market will always tend to lend to property and land, and less into productive means (businesses = risk of 100 loss, land or property ... you have a loss when you sell it. << China, UK ) [...] not all credit is good credit. [...] need for macroprudential policy to dampen bubbles bc rate hikes could dampen normal non-speculative area of economy. ie loan to value limits [...] interest rate setting is blunt hammer that people though is the magic wand along the line of self-regulation, free market, neoliberalism and trickle-down [...] GFC can be traced back to the 60-70's - macroecon + micro with absurd assumptions (ie rational expectations, equilibriums, no bubbles) & math & pure theoretical base (no empirical analysis ie of what banks really do ie greed) = makes job of economist as policy advisor real easy.
bank  crisis  JohnMaynardKeynes  keynes  Keynesianism  book  Richard  Koo  aggregate  demand  austerity  liquidity  trap  deleveraging  balance  sheet  recession  debtoverhang  GFC  recovery  secular  stagnation  western  world  dogma  ideology  underinvestment  productive  investment  infrastructure  investment  monetary  policy  monetary  theory  trickle-down  economics  neoliberalism  neoliberal  budget  deficit  economic  history  credit  bubble  output  gap  productivity  inflation  targeting  nominal  GDP  targeting  asset  allocation  economics  investment  banking  zombie  banks  retail  banking  financial  product  CDS  CDO  hunt  for  yield  VAR  risk  aversion  deflationary  deflation  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  debt  monetisation  debt  monetization  Glass-Steagall  self-regulation  regulators  regulation  leverage  margin  trading  property  bubble  arbitrage  speculative  bubbles  asset  bubble  UK  USA  Europe  ECB  Fed  BOE  zombie  consumer  squeezed  middle  class  zombie  corporations  NPL  junk  bond  realestate  macroprudential  policy  mortgage  market  equilibrium  disequilibrium  Economist  economists  Adair  Turner  hayek 
february 2016 by asterisk2a
Starter homes will 'stymie social mobility' | Money | The Guardian
Shelter warns that David Cameron’s homebuilding policy will be out of reach for those on average earnings, while others say it may divide communities //&! Taylor Wimpey warns over plan to build discounted homes for first-time buyers. Housebuilder questions how proposed 20% saving on more than 200,000 properties would be implemented and its impact on affordable housing sector - bit.ly/1SdH4dS //&! new legislation that fails to address the problem of affordable rented housing - bit.ly/1O2XMIM //&! Britain’s biggest housebuilder and smaller rival Galliford Try report confident outlook thanks to government-backed schemes such as help to buy - bit.ly/1OQQvgM //&! Property has become a subsidized asset bubble for the well off upper quarter of British households! Tories main constituency, especially in the South! //&! Policy is attack in social and affordable housing! Privatisation through the back door. But not solving. PM just positions himself and it at it! spin! - bit.ly/1OJlYgt
Starter  Home  Help  to  Buy  Scheme  Buy  to  Rent  property  bubble  aggregate  demand  Housing  Crisis  social  affordable  Privatisation  benefit  Help  to  Save 
february 2016 by asterisk2a
Housing: Corbyn and Cameron clash over 'right-to-buy' - BBC News
[ micro/macro econ policy folly / error to promote home ownership. the only asset of UK households hold ... has to be kept afloat! by any means necessary. + Help to Buy ] The way the government intends to pay for its plans to allow social tenants in England to buy their homes is "extremely questionable", MPs say. The Commons Communities Committee criticised the funding model for the right-to-buy scheme, which will see housing associations reimbursed for selling homes to tenants at discounts. [ AND WITH THE MONEY THEY WANT TO BUILT STARTER HOMES FOR THE 30-20% of UK HOUSEHOLDS THAT CAN AFFORD A DOWN PAYMENT OF A 250-400k HOME. ] &! bit.ly/1hpXShr - PM will promise to tear up planning rules in effort to encourage developers to build more housing for first-time buyers //&! Buy to Rent w its tax breaks is a subsidy for privileged! & MPs say it should be paid for directly rather than via council house sales. Ministers say it will help create a million new homeowners by 2020.
Right  to  Buy  property  bubble  asset  allocation  household  debt  consumer  debt  credit  card  debt  car  loan  mortgage  market  affordable  housing  social  housing  Starter  Home  Crisis  David  Cameron  Tories  nasty  party  Conservative  short-termism  constituency  Funding  general  election  2020  general  election  2015  election  campaign  promises  Manifesto  generation  rent  Generationengerechtigkeit  speculative  bubbles  aggregate  demand  Supply  and  and  Supply  macroprudential  policy  Buy  to  subsidies  subsidizing  Help  to  Buy  Scheme  Privatisation 
february 2016 by asterisk2a
Norway seeks to diversify its economy as oil earnings plunge - BBC News
As oil prices have collapsed, it's become clear that Norway has caught what used to be called the Dutch disease - an overreliance on one industry, in this case the oil and gas sector. With its upmarket waterfront restaurants and the Barcode office blocks, the Sorenga dockside development serves as a poignant reminder of how prosperous Norway had become while the going was still good. [...] Unbalanced economy [...] "The oil and gas industry became too strong in our economy, especially during the last four or five years, reflects Prime Minister Erna Solberg. "Most of the growth came from that sector, and our strong currency left some of our traditional industries behind." [...] Household debts have reached more than 200% of annual disposable income [ Dutch Disease; UK & USA = domestic consumption, Germany = exports and its name, London = Finance and wealthy expats/non-doms, Switzerland = exports and its name , China = export, Brazil = commodity export ]
Norway  Aberdeen  Oil  price  commodity  prices  secular  stagnation  2016  2015  credit  bubble  China  BRIC  economic  history  reflate  reflation  QE  ZIRP  NIRP  aggregate  demand  Dutch  Disease  distortion  financial  repression  macroeconomics  macroeconomic  policy  macroprudential  policy  microeconomic  policy  unemployment  OPEC 
february 2016 by asterisk2a
What's holding back the world economy? | Business | The Guardian
[ continued financialisation of economy / faustian pact ] QE and low interest rates have disproportionately created wealth in the financial sector and inflated asset bubbles. It has done little for the real economy. The rules of the market need to be rewritten [...] dominant policies during the post-crisis period – fiscal retrenchment and quantitative easing (QE) by major central banks – have offered little support to stimulate household consumption, investment, and growth. On the contrary, they have tended to make matters worse. In the US, quantitative easing did not boost consumption and investment partly because most of the additional liquidity returned to central banks’ coffers in the form of excess reserves. [...] private investment did not grow [...] [ QE supported only financial sector and zombie banks and corporations, little to nothing went into the real economy for investment in western world ] [ which leads us to say we are still in a banking crisis per se ]
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february 2016 by asterisk2a
Carney: No need for interest rate rises now - BBC News
Carney said that collapsing oil prices and an "unforgiving" global environment meant that tighter monetary policy was not yet necessary. [...] He pointed out that the Fed's rate rise had only brought the US interest rate to the same "lofty level" as the Bank of England's. The Governor said that three factors would be the strongest guide to when interest rates might rise. First, that economic growth in the UK would be higher than the average trend. He said that growth at an average quarterly rate of 0.5% in 2015 had "disappointed". Second, that wage growth strengthens and productivity improves. And, third, that core inflation starts to approach the target rate of 2%. //&! Rate rise pause till early 2017? - bbc.in/1T1Qrge - [ global risks are building, global imbalances, faultlines. ] There's a frying pan - the global growth slowdown - and a fire - high levels of indebtedness - out there. &! bbc.in/1S5N7ks
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january 2016 by asterisk2a
Too Many "Think Tanks" Are Just Kool-Aid Fueled Group-Think | Zero Hedge
In response to the consumer: “Consumers are doing quite well.” “Gas (prices) is a boon to retail.” In response to employment and the economy: “Jobs are doing great, people just aren’t spending.” “GDP is on the right track.” // - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chicago_school_of_economics
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january 2016 by asterisk2a
Why are we looking on helplessly as markets crash all over the world? | Will Hutton | Opinion | The Guardian
[ so much debt in the system, a rise in interest can not be served as is ] The imminent collapse of the Chinese Ponzi-scheme economy shows that we need to bring control to the international economy. [...] There has always been a tension at the heart of capitalism. Although it is the best wealth-creating mechanism we’ve made, it can’t be left to its own devices. Its self-regulating properties, contrary to the efforts of generations of economists trying to prove otherwise, are weak. [...] Profits as a share of national income in Britain and the US touch all-time highs; wages touch an all-time low as the power of organised labour diminishes and the gig economy of short-term contracts takes hold. The excesses of the rich, digging underground basements to house swimming pools, cinemas and lavish gyms, sit alongside the travails of the new middle-class poor. These are no longer able to secure themselves decent pensions and their gig-economy children defer starting families ...
China  credit  bubble  speculative  bubbles  equity  bubble  BRIC  2015  2016  self-regulation  capitalism  crony  capitalism  Wall  Street  shareholder  value  profit  maximisation  Gig  Economy  Zero  Hour  Contract  squeezed  middle  class  secular  stagnation  western  world  aggregate  demand  consumer  debt  debtoverhang  Richard  Koo  economic  history  balance  sheet  recession  household  debt  credit  card  debt  car  loan  mortgage  market  working  poor  poverty  trap  Gini  coefficient  social  mobility  income  mobility  inequality  plutocracy  oligarchy  Super  Rich  1%  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  distortion  George  Osborne  dogma  ideology  David  Cameron  neoliberalism  neoliberal  globalisation  globalization  exploitation  borderless  flat  world  USA  UK  austerity  fiscal  policy  monetary  policy  liquidity  trap  debt  servitude  wage  stagnation  shared  economic  interest  NPL  shadow  banking  shadow  Career  Politicians  No  Representation  democracy  social  democracy  Generationengerechtigkeit 
january 2016 by asterisk2a
Börse: Warum Schwellenländer für die Kurskrise sorgen - Kolumne - SPIEGEL ONLINE
Chronisch überschüssige Leistungsbilanz [ & Over capacity for less/stagnant demand ... + biggest credit bubble (china) popped as the west can't afford more. QE and ZIRP has run it's way! ] [...] Der Grund, warum der deutsche Aktienindex weitaus mehr betroffen ist als andere europäische Indizes, liegt allein an der strukturellen Abhängigkeit der deutschen Industrie von Blasen in anderen Ländern. Anstatt auf bessere Stimmung zu hoffen, sind Anleger gut beraten, sich über den weiteren Verlauf der Schwellenländerkrise Gedanken zu machen. [...] [ Fed taper makes things more difficult to serve debt ] [...] Langfristig sind es die Gewinne und nicht die Zinsen, die die Aktienpreise treiben. //&! China (Asia/BRIC/Frontier Market) Corporate Bond Yields up - bit.ly/1Sme7fV & NPL probably too. //&! If property is biggest item of household wealth in a property bubble (UK, China, ... USA) - bit.ly/1Zpiy8M
trade  deficit  BRIC  credit  bubble  western  world  secular  stagnation  macroeconomic  policy  China  Japan  Germany  UK  USA  Brazil  commodity  prices  Oil  price  NPL  shadow  banking  shadow  economy  banking  crisis  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  QT  speculative  bubbles  property  bubble  mortgage  market  Fed  BOE  ECB  European  Union  sovereign  debt  crisis  household  debt  consumer  debt  credit  card  debt  car  loan  private  debt  corporate  debt  tax  evasion  tax  avoidance  austerity  corporate  welfare  subsidies  subsidizing  Russia  OPEC  aggregate  demand  liquidity  trap  Richard  Koo  Richardkoo  debtoverhang  balance  sheet  recession  debt  servitude  student  loan  debt  Super  Cycle  debt  bubble  student  debt  debt  monetisation  debt  monetization  student  loan  discretionary  spending  disposable  income  squeezed  middle  class  precarious  work  Precariat  working  poor  neoliberalism  neoliberal  globalization  globalisation  borderless  flat  world  trade  agreement  Hegemony  TPP  TTIP  TISA  CETA  NAFTA  Africa  South  Africa  global  trade  trade  balance  current  account  deficit  Frontier  Markets  faultlines  structural  imbalance  global  imbalances  Taper  reflate  reflation  equity  bubble  Abenomics  economic  history  India  irrational  exuberance  Robert  Shiller  inequality  Gini  coefficient  deflationary 
january 2016 by asterisk2a
Cameron responds to Question Time tax credits complaint | Money | The Guardian
[S]he & her four children were entirely dependent on a combination of working tax credits & child benefits because her business did not make a profit. “I get £400 a week in tax credits, child maintenance from my ex-partner & child benefit. And that’s what I live on. What I make from the business goes straight back into it.” Dorrell, who accused the Tories of telling lies to her and others in a similar situation [...] The House of Commons has approved the cuts to tax credits, with only a handful of Conservatives rebelling against the measures. [...] [The] IFS & the Resolution Foundation say the welfare cuts in Osborne’s summer budget will leave some of Britain’s poorest families up to £1,300 a year out of pocket. Paul Johnson, the director of the IFS, has said it is “arithmetically impossible” for workers not to lose out from the cuts. //&! bit.ly/1jsM5AQ - The ‘work penalty’ will hit the strivers of the country & youtu.be/wrbu6NFazfU & bit.ly/1Pn59NQ & bit.ly/1h98H3X
tax  credit  tax  code  child  tax  credit  working  tax  credit  working  poor  precarious  work  Precariat  low  income  low  pay  minimum  wage  inequality  income  distribution  income  redistribution  tax  free  income  income  tax  income  inequality  Universal  Basic  budget2015  fairness  Generationengerechtigkeit  bank  bailout  tax  evasion  tax  avoidance  corporate  welfare  subsidies  subsidizing  aggregate  demand  crony  capitalism  neoliberalism  neoliberal  corporate  tax  rate  capitalism  Wall  Street  GFC  shareholder  value  profit  maximisation  Gesellschaft  vulnerable  Disabled  austerity  democracy  Career  Politicians  No  Representation  nasty  party  Tories  Conservative  reframing  framing  PR  spin  doctor  Positioning  manufactured  consent  corporate  scandal  Polarisation  DWP  JSA  ESA  Iain  Duncan  Smith  Jeremy  Hunt  George  Osborne  David  Cameron  NHS  Public  Services  Social  Services  propaganda  corporate  media  corporate  state  populism  bedroom  tax  Right  to  Buy  messaging  message  relations  Help  to  Buy  Scheme  political  theory  neoconservatism  neoconservatives 
october 2015 by asterisk2a
SNP conference: John Swinney to give Scottish councils business rate powers - BBC News
[ so who is actually going to pay tax? to repair roads, winder service, replace street lights, clean the city, police, NHS, ... to fund councils budgets that are already deep in the red and are cut further over the next 5 years. Public libraries, pools, social care, etc etc. dismantling britian. framing it as job creator. as if tax cuts create demand! lol. its a race to the bottom. ] Colin Borland, the Federation of Small Businesses' (FSB) head of external affairs in Scotland, said it was good news that cutting the cost of doing business was "at the heart of the deputy first minister's message". He said: "If used appropriately, these powers could give local economies a welcome boost and it will be interesting to see how many hard-pressed councils will be able to take advantage of them." UK Chancellor George Osborne has promised local authorities in England more flexibility over business rates by 2020.
corporate  tax  rate  neoliberalism  neoliberal  Devolution  George  Osborne  SNP  Scotland  England  Wales  Northern  Ireland  corporate  welfare  subsidies  subsidizing  austerity  Public  Services  Social  Services  budget2015  budget  deficit  elderly  care  Big  Society  deprivation  community  Wall  Street  profit  maximisation  shareholder  value  trickle-down  economics  economic  history  UK  fiscal  policy  monetary  policy  Richard  Koo  debtoverhang  household  debt  private  debt  consumer  debt  tax  code  tax  free  income  aggregate  demand  Supply  and  and  Supply  credit  card  debt  credit  card  mortgage  market  Super  Cycle  debt  servitude  PR  spin  doctor  Positioning  Tories  Conservative  Party  dogma  ideology  nasty  reframing  framing  academia  academics  Niall  Ferguson  secular  stagnation  western  world  fairness  GFC  Generationengerechtigkeit  babyboomers  constituency  vested  interest  interest  groups  lobbyist  lobby  Lobbying  Makers 
october 2015 by asterisk2a
Brazil's downgrade | Authers' Note - YouTube
- 6 killer apps not yet properly installed. - // and still dependent on western world demand! aggregate demand via western consumer. // credit bubble and ZIRP/NIRP/QE has run its way largely // private sector could not pick up recovery. no appetite. same for SME SMB mittelstand. excess reserves not lend out because the horse has to drink by itself, can't make the drink. // especially when it has no means to served future credit interest payment coupons and principal repayment with no income growth! for decades. // inequality huts, middle class destoryed. - Career Politicans, Fear, polarisation, inequality, gini coefficient, zeit arbeit, leiharbeit, self-employment, working conditions, ...sozialer abstieg, squeezed middle class, ... insecurity, cloudy future, richard koo: austerity isn't helping!
Brazil  BRIC  Developing  World  China  credit  bubble  Latin  America  India  Russia  South  Africa  2015  Niall  Ferguson  NiallFerguson  recovery  GFC  QE  ZIRP  NIRP  distortion  emerging  middle  class  western  aggregate  demand  Supply  and  and  Supply  economic  history  Richard  Koo  monetary  policy  monetary  stimulus  monetary  transmission  mechanism  monetary  theory  globalization  globalisation  hunt  for  yield  FOMO  frothy  correction  equity  bubble  speculative  bubbles  speculative  speculation  property  bubble  asset  allocation  capital  allocation  hot-money  currency-war  currency  debasement  currency  war  Fed  BOE  BOJ  Abenomics  ECB  PBOC  banking  crisis  bank  bailout  austerity  UK  USA  Europe  Fiscal  Pact  Schuldenbremse  policy  consolidation  trickle-down  economics  neoliberalism  neoliberal  income  growth  disposable  income  discretionary  spending  low  income  job  creation  labour  market  wage  growth  secular  stagnation  wage  stagnation  income  distribution  Super  Rich  1%  marginal  propensity  to  consume  consumer  debt  household  debt  business  investment  business  confidence  global  trade  global  economy  global  imbalances  Structural  Impediments  imbalance  underemployed  participation  rate  productivity  output  gap  macroeconomic  policy  policy  job  microeconomi 
september 2015 by asterisk2a
Public Lecture by Professor Niall Ferguson 2013-04-09 - YouTube
[6 Killer Apps - youtu.be/xpnFeyMGUs8 ] Degeneration and Regeneration after the GFC // interlude: Margaret Thatcher, the power of ideas in public office, in politics: Nature of freedom, economic freedom & other freedoms. Hayek & Adam Smith // The Great Degeneration (new Book 2013). Theme: The role of institutions in the creation and preservation of freedom. // GFC = "The slight depression." Avoided Great Depression like scenario by policy response (reflation) different to previous history. Talks abt equity market levels back 2 pre-2007 levels. EQUITY/(financial) ASSET PRICES. Bank Bailout! But NOT reached (real economy) escape velocity! Proper recovery! Under Keynes it should be an admission of defeat (bc lack of fiscal stimulus)! Is a sub-plot in the story of western decline! Great reconvergence of west & the rest of the world. // &! youtu.be/VVsP2X4kuA8 &! importance of civil institutions - youtu.be/8RB7Ah95RM4 bit.ly/1NqF7am &! youtu.be/kXTjj9NQKYo &! youtu.be/tyYTChxYAQ4
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september 2015 by asterisk2a
China's impossible trinity - BBC News
At the heart of China's problem is the "impossible trinity" of international macroeconomics. The impossible trinity - or trilemma - is the idea that it is impossible for a country to have three things at the same time: a stable currency, the free movement of capital (i.e. the absence of capital controls) and independent monetary policy. A country can instead choose just two of the options from this policy suite. The UK, in common with most developed economies, has free capital movement and an independent monetary policy - but not a controlled exchange rate. The Bank of England sets interest rates at a level it thinks is right for the UK economy and - as capital can flow into and out of the UK at will - the exchange rate is determined by the market. [...] But the bigger criticism is usually over the nature of the post-2009 stimulus package [...] But, for all the criticism, the counterfactual is rarely stated. What would global growth have looked like without it? [//+ deflation factors]
China  liberal  economic  reform  2015  credit  bubble  devaluation  currency  debasement  Yuan  RMB  PBOC  IMF  SDR  macroeconomics  monetary  policy  fiscal  policy  QE  recovery  GFC  economic  history  banking  crisis  shadow  banking  NPL  debtoverhang  balance  sheet  recession  deleveraging  property  bubble  hot-money  BRIC  western  world  global  trade  global  economy  deflationary  deflation  reflate  reflation  equity  bubble  asset  bubble  asset  allocation  distortion  unknown  unkown  unintended  consequences  Fed  BOE  BOJ  Abenomics  currency  war  currency-war  aggregate  demand  short-fall  aggregate  demand  Richard  Koo  consumer  debt  household  debt  student  loan  debt  debt  servitude  sovereign  debt  crisis  debt  bubble  Super  Cycle  student  debt  public  debt  debt  monetisation  debt  monetization  private  debt  globalisation  globalization  technological  progress  flat  world  wage  growth  wage  stagnation  secular  stagnation  borderless  global  imbalances  faultlines  structural  imbalance  savings  glut  Impediments  inequality  squeezed  middle  class  Europe  UK  OECD  marginal  propensity  to  consume  Sozialer  Abstieg  working  poor  precarious  work  income  growth  deregulation  self-regulation  Workers  Union  wage  pressure  disposable  income  income  distribution  income  redistribution  low  income  income  inequality  American  Dream  USA  Gini  Super  coe 
september 2015 by asterisk2a
The euro crisis: Austerity is a pain. So is tight money | The Economist
What about, say, Greece? After all, it doesn’t have a central bank with independent powers to set monetary policy according to its needs. Recent research suggests that government spending has a large effect on the economy in exactly these circumstances, in which monetary policy is not set at the national level but by a supranational or external authority. Austerity will therefore hurt these countries: at current levels of prices and wages, aggregate demand in Greece is insufficient, and fiscal austerity eats further away at it in the absence of a central bank to pick up the slack.

Research suggests that austerity, besides its harmful effects in a currency union, is politically very costly. the emphasis should be on growth-promoting reforms, not austerity, when there are political limits.

Extent of Internal Devaluation to regain competitiveness - limited.

the ECB has to aggressively stabilise aggregate demand in the euro zone as a whole.
europeanunion  2012  Euro  aggregate  demand  devaluation  Italy  Portugal  PIIGS  competitiveness  debtoverhang  crisis  debt  sovereign  economics  politics  ECB  BOE  policy  fiscal  monetary  austerity  Europe  Greece 
january 2012 by asterisk2a

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