asterisk2a + yuan   27

Bank of Japan shocks markets by adopting negative interest rates | World news | The Guardian
BOJ shock decision to adopt negative interest rates, in an attempt to protect the flagging economy from market volatility and fears over the global economy. In a 5-4 vote, the bank’s board imposed a 0.1% fee on deposits left with the Bank of Japan (BoJ) – in effect a negative interest rate. The move, which follows the similarly aggressive precedent set by the ECB in June 2014, is designed to encourage commercial banks to use excess reserves they keep with the central bank to lend to businesses. //&! The Disturbing Reasons Why The Bank Of Japan Stunned Everyone With Negative Rates - bit.ly/1UvpOyO - encouraging capex, supporting existing bubbles ie equity and bonds (joining draghi). Citing examples of Sweden and Switzerland with NIRP. And ECB of combining QE and NIRP. Combating China exporting deflation. And keep the pace of JGB purchases, keeping the bubble floating. [A] "last-ditch measure"[.] [I]t may be time to panic. - 2016/2017 //&! Currency War - bit.ly/1QwOGox
ECB  BOJ  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  debt  monetisation  debt  monetization  monetary  policy  monetary  transmission  mechanism  monetary  theory  unconventional  monetary  policy  monetary  stimulus  monetary  system  deposit  levy  MarioDraghi  Abenomics  economic  history  deleveraging  debtoverhang  balance  sheet  recession  GFC  recovery  Yen  Euro  credit  bubble  liquidity  trap  distortion  asset  bubble  asset  allocation  equity  bubble  speculative  bubbles  bond  bubble  property  bubble  debt  bubble  New  Normal  financial  repression  faultlines  global  economy  structural  imbalance  global  imbalances  demographic  bubble  ageing  population  Japan  UK  secular  stagnation  western  world  inflation  expectation  inflation  targeting  nominal  GDP  targeting  deflation  Sweden  Switzerland  China  Yuan  JGB  2016  USA  Europe  sovereign  debt  crisis  austerity  business  confidence  consumer  confidence  Super  Cycle  recession  currency-war  currency  debasement  currency  war 
january 2016 by asterisk2a
Börsenabsturz in China: Der Kontrollverlust - Kommentar - SPIEGEL ONLINE
Der Börsen-Crash in China ist Symptom eines fundamentalen Wandels: Um den Wohlstand zu erhalten, muss die Regierung immer mehr Kontrolle abgeben. Die Allmacht der kommunistischen Partei gerät ins Wanken.
China  economic  history  SRD  Yuan  macroeconomic  policy  microeconomic  policy  corruption  bribery  regulation  regulators  liberal  economic  reform  economic  refugee  inequality  IMF  AIIB  World  Bank  Hegemony  PBOC  Gini  coefficient  social  safety  net  Services  Public  Services  discretionary  spending  disposable  income  pension  scheme  pension  pension  fund  asset  allocation  capital  allocation  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  credit  bubble  QT  monetary  policy  fiscal  policy  shadow  banking  NPL  2015  2016  shadow  economy  demographic  bubble 
january 2016 by asterisk2a
China's impossible trinity - BBC News
At the heart of China's problem is the "impossible trinity" of international macroeconomics. The impossible trinity - or trilemma - is the idea that it is impossible for a country to have three things at the same time: a stable currency, the free movement of capital (i.e. the absence of capital controls) and independent monetary policy. A country can instead choose just two of the options from this policy suite. The UK, in common with most developed economies, has free capital movement and an independent monetary policy - but not a controlled exchange rate. The Bank of England sets interest rates at a level it thinks is right for the UK economy and - as capital can flow into and out of the UK at will - the exchange rate is determined by the market. [...] But the bigger criticism is usually over the nature of the post-2009 stimulus package [...] But, for all the criticism, the counterfactual is rarely stated. What would global growth have looked like without it? [//+ deflation factors]
China  liberal  economic  reform  2015  credit  bubble  devaluation  currency  debasement  Yuan  RMB  PBOC  IMF  SDR  macroeconomics  monetary  policy  fiscal  policy  QE  recovery  GFC  economic  history  banking  crisis  shadow  banking  NPL  debtoverhang  balance  sheet  recession  deleveraging  property  bubble  hot-money  BRIC  western  world  global  trade  global  economy  deflationary  deflation  reflate  reflation  equity  bubble  asset  bubble  asset  allocation  distortion  unknown  unkown  unintended  consequences  Fed  BOE  BOJ  Abenomics  currency  war  currency-war  aggregate  demand  short-fall  aggregate  demand  Richard  Koo  consumer  debt  household  debt  student  loan  debt  debt  servitude  sovereign  debt  crisis  debt  bubble  Super  Cycle  student  debt  public  debt  debt  monetisation  debt  monetization  private  debt  globalisation  globalization  technological  progress  flat  world  wage  growth  wage  stagnation  secular  stagnation  borderless  global  imbalances  faultlines  structural  imbalance  savings  glut  Impediments  inequality  squeezed  middle  class  Europe  UK  OECD  marginal  propensity  to  consume  Sozialer  Abstieg  working  poor  precarious  work  income  growth  deregulation  self-regulation  Workers  Union  wage  pressure  disposable  income  income  distribution  income  redistribution  low  income  income  inequality  American  Dream  USA  Gini  Super  coe 
september 2015 by asterisk2a
Banks Are Perilously Exposed to China - Bloomberg View
International banks, however, don't appear to be heavily exposed to China, at first glance anyway. Bank of International Settlements data show that their claims on Chinese banks, companies, consumers and public sector are quite manageable, though Australian and U.K. banks have extended a lot of credit in China in proportion to their total foreign assets: [...] U.K. banks' $198 billion in Chinese assets at the end of last year looks particularly threatening, especially given that HSBC and Standard Chartered both derive a significant portion of their revenue from China. This exposure is particularly problematic because a debt overhang is one of the Chinese economy's biggest problems.
exposure  China  banking  crisis  investment  banking  UK  USA  2015  credit  bubble  equity  bubble  speculative  bubbles  bond  bubble  property  bubble  asset  bubble  asset  allocation  distortion  ZIRP  PBOC  NIRP  QE  QT  2016  balance  sheet  recession  underwater  debtoverhang  VAR  excess  reserves  shadow  banking  fractional  reserve  banking  banking  Fed  BOE  London  Bank  Oversight  George  Osborne  David  Cameron  Mark  Carney  liquidity  trap  Taper  monetary  transmission  mechanism  M3  monetary  policy  monetary  stimulus  unconventional  monetary  policy  monetary  system  monetary  theory  austerity  unknown  unkown  unintended  consequences  deregulation  self-regulation  regulation  regulators  Westminster  Toff  Conservative  Party  Tories  Establishment  Privileged  speculative  speculation  derivatives  financial  repression  financial  market  financial  cycle  financial  literacy  financial  crisis  HSBC  Standard  Chartered  NPL  correction  overcapacity  AIIB  Asia  FX  reserves  centralbank  reserves  margin  trading  leverage  irrational  exuberance  hubris  panic  petrodollar  Oil  price  OPEC  global  trade  global  economy  global  growth  global  imbalances  faultlines  structural  imbalance  Impediments  debt  monetisation  debt  monetization  BIS  Germany  Japan  Yuan  RMB  devaluation 
september 2015 by asterisk2a
The "Great Accumulation" Is Over: The Biggest Risk Facing The World's Central Banks Has Arrived | Zero Hedge
PBoC’s rapid liquidation of USTs over the past two weeks has added fuel to the fire and effectively boxed the Fed in. On Tuesday, Deutsche Bank is out extending their "quantitative tightening" (QT) analysis with a look at whats ahead now that the so-called "Great Accumulation" is over.  "Following two decades of unremitting growth, we expect global central bank reserves to at best stabilize but more likely to continue to decline in coming years," [...] Less reserve accumulation should put secular upward pressure on both global fixed income yields & USD. [If the shadow actor in Belgium doesnt buy it up @rate everyone else is selling (divesting) ] [...] The current secular shift in reserve manager behaviour represents the equivalent to Quantitative Tightening, or QT. This force is likely to be a persistent headwind towards developed market central banks’ exit from unconventional policy in coming years, representing an additional source of uncertainty in the global economy. ...
bond  bubble  treasuries  Treasury  Market  liquidity  trap  liquidity  squeeze  China  FX  reserves  centralbanks  reserves  USD  Dollar  QE  ZIRP  NIRP  petrodollar  2015  Yuan  RMB  devaluation  global  trade  global  economy  global  imbalances  global  growth  faultlines  OPEC  Oil  price  Asia  emerging  PBOC  Russia  shale  gas  fracking  tarsand  Canada  USA  Taper  Fed  credit  bubble  reflate  reflation  GFC  recovery  monetary  system  financial  monetary  theory  monetary  policy  monetary  stimulus  unconventional  monetary  policy  Saudi  Arabia  UAE  Iran  commodity  prices  Quantitative  Tightening  QT  2016  New  Normal  uncertainty  BOE  IMF  SDR  reserve  currency 
september 2015 by asterisk2a
Why It Really All Comes Down To The Death Of The Petrodollar | Zero Hedge
What might not be as clear (on the surface anyway) is how recent events in developing economy FX markets following the devaluation of the yuan stem from a seismic shift we began discussing late last year - namely, the death of the petrodollar system which has served to underwrite decades of dollar dominance and was, until recently, a fixture of the post-war global economic order. In short, the world seems to have underestimated how structurally important collapsing crude prices are to global finance. For years, producers funnelled their dollar proceeds into USD assets providing a perpetual source of liquidity, boosting the financial strength of the reserve currency, leading to even higher asset prices and even more USD-denominated purchases, and so forth, in a virtuous loop. [...] For the first time in decades, exported petrodollar capital turned negative. [...] the world is now beginning to feel the impact of the petrodollar's quiet demise. // &! Follow-on! bit.ly/1IGh4O3
petrodollar  OPEC  centralbanks  reserves  USD  Dollar  2015  Oil  price  FX  reserves  China  Asia  emerging  market  global  trade  global  economy  global  imbalances  Yuan  RMB  devaluation  PBOC  Russia  shale  gas  fracking  tarsand  Canada  USA  Taper  Fed  credit  bubble  QE  ZIRP  NIRP  reflate  reflation  GFC  recovery  monetary  system  financial  market  monetary  theory  monetary  policy  monetary  stimulus  unconventional  monetary  policy  Saudi  Arabia  UAE  Iran  commodity  prices  liquidity  trap  liquidity  squeeze  treasuries  Treasury  bond  bubble  faultlines  IMF  SDR  reserve  currency 
september 2015 by asterisk2a
Alibaba Is the Canary in China's Coal Mine - Bloomberg View
It turns out investors were right about Alibaba: No company is more on the front lines of China's economic shifts than Jack Ma's juggernaut. And that's just where the problems begin. [...] After months of putting the entire weight of the government behind saving the market, Beijing appears to have given up. The fallout from that realization will have unpredictable effects on 1.3 billion people indoctrinated to believe Beijing can control any crisis or narrative. As markets swoon and gross domestic product slides, consumers are delaying nonessential purchases. [...] Mass austerity has only just begun. [...] it would be interesting to see how the government responds to "large and widespread investment losses that could lead to a notable negative wealth effect which could weaken consumption, as well as grievances against the authorities." [...] Macau's GDP -26.4% last quarter [...] Chinese gamblers stayed home. [...] Ma created a better quarterly GDP report than Beijing.
Alibaba  China  Jack  Ma  2015  credit  bubble  PBOC  equity  bubble  asset  bubble  property  bubble  speculative  bubbles  speculative  hunt  for  yield  speculation  Yuan  RMB  devaluation  distortion  QE  ZIRP  NIRP  margin  trading  leverage  discretionary  spending  Call  Taper  Fed  BOE  balance  sheet  recession  underwater  market  intervention  bond  bubble  unknown  unkown  unintended  consequences  hubris  irrational  exuberance  western  world  faultlines  Structural  Impediments  imbalance  savings  glut  correlation  excess  reserves  banking  crisis  shadow  banking  investment  banking  New  Normal  fractional  reserve  banking  banking  BIS  centralbanks  monetary  policy  fiscal  policy  short-term  1%  Super  Rich  Privileged  Establishment  Toff  bank  bailout 
september 2015 by asterisk2a
Steen Jakobsen: Get Ready For The Biggest Margin Call In History - YouTube
ideology/Career Politicians/Complacency/Cushy/non-ambitious/AIIB/comfortable //&! bit.ly/1cU2RVS March 2015, SELL & come back in 6 months - bloom.bg/1NTykGB //&! bit.ly/1NJvXai &! bit.ly/1VsYTEJ Outrageous predictions for 2015 were: China devalues yuan 20% [joining others in global struggle to import inflation] &! Corporate high yield market spreads double (higher refinancing cost, which zombie corporations do actually have no pants on as tide goes out) "High yield is a derivative of equity markets. If you believe equities are overvalued, so too is high yield," &! UK house prices crash (foreign hot money, speculative + shortage + Summer 2015 Crash + BOE Taper in 2015/16 = back to reality!) &! Russia defaults again // &! Fed Taper is a "margin call," [need 2 normalize despite its mandate/fundamentals not warranting a hike!] [...] a seven-year bull run 4 equities might be coming to an end [...] the rise (not value) of RMB/Yuan as it becomes free floating out of need] - cnb.cx/1MMyLSC
Abenomics  Yen  Yuan  RMB  devaluation  currency-war  fiat  currency  currency  debasement  currency  war  deflationary  deflation  credit  bubble  PBOC  China  credit  cycle  business  cycle  financial  cycle  financial  crisis  leverage  margin  trading  underinvestment  productive  investment  business  investment  public  investment  personal  investment  infrastructure  investment  rebalancing  structural  imbalance  Impediments  infrastructure  Career  Politicians  short-term  Fortune  500  shareholder  value  profit  maximisation  Wall  Street  ROI  STEM  Research  R&D  business  confidence  consumer  confidence  New  Normal  hunt  for  yield  output  gap  productivity  Software  Is  Eating  The  World  Robotics  3D  printing  Steen  Jakobsen  financial  incentive  secular  stagnation  Manufacturing  Industrial  Revolution  2.0  policy  AIIB  Asia  European  Union  share  buyback  2015  equity  bubble  speculative  bubbles  bond  bubble  property  bubble  asset  bubble  asset  allocation  distortion  demographic  bubble  ageing  population  western  developed  liquidity  trap  UK  USA  Europe  BOE  Fed  BOJ  ECB  bank  bailout  toobigtofail  too  big  to  jail  too  big  to  bail  banking  crisis  sovereign  debt  crisis  austerity  ideology  dogma  economic  history  trickle-down  economics  neoliberalism  neoliberal 
august 2015 by asterisk2a
China: Is it in the Midst of a Hard Landing? - YouTube
Gordon Chang, author of "The Coming Collapse of China," discusses the outlook for China's economy with Bloomberg's Joe Weisenthal and Alix Steel on "What'd You Miss?" // 1trn in reserves to support yuan, will need to liquidate its serserves - bond and fx // currently there is no backstop // mal-investment // time has run out since their Put post-2009 to retool economy and social safety net and health care // will be bad pull on western world, deflation, // "1930's style crash" // they have no tool left, no backstop. //
book  China  credit  bubble  QE  ZIRP  NIRP  PBOC  liquidity  trap  asset  allocation  speculative  bubbles  asset  bubble  equity  bubble  faultlines  structural  imbalance  Impediments  2015  capital-flight  Yuan  RMB  economic  growth  contagion  global  economy  bond  bubble  property  bubble  hubris  irrational  exuberance  panic  BRIC  Developing  World  western  deflationary  deflation  economic  history  fiscal  policy  monetary  policy 
august 2015 by asterisk2a
Why China Had To Crash - Forbes
Private Debt/household debt 2 GDP exceeding 1.5x/150% spells trouble. Chinas pace of Private Debt expansion through credit was unprecedented in % terms compared to any other recent credit bubble (China Put, 2009) on.ft.com/1Ixhw1a // Could now spell balance sheet recession (underwater, servicing debt for worth(less) asset ie stock (+margin trading) or property (inland or overseas)) thus deleveraging of private households. --- Metropolitan property markets across the world have been flooded with speculative money from China & BRIC! Just look at last chart of % of household debt increase bit.ly/1va3oaw Its Russia, China, Brazil, ... // And China banking system & shadow banking system could sit on a lot of NPL coming 2016. Zombie banks in China, ups! PBOC commanded to lend post-2009! // &! bit.ly/1KWkTQY // &! youtu.be/-3aBjFo2Fh4 - Steve Keen (Mar 29, 2015) 'with bad models you can't see shocks coming!'
China  2015  credit  bubble  margin  trading  property  bubble  equity  bubble  asset  allocation  hot-money  hunt  for  yield  PBOC  balance  sheet  recession  deleveraging  debtoverhang  underwater  devaluation  Yuan  RMB  BRIC  speculative  bubbles  asset  bubble  bond  bubble  NPL  zombie  banks  private  debt  household  debt  Steve  Keen 
august 2015 by asterisk2a
China economy: Weakened foundations by FT Big Read
Facing an economic slowdown with its old tools to stimulate growth losing their power, Beijing finally turned to a weapon it had avoided using for more than two decades. Jamil Anderlini investigates why China’s leaders resorted to devaluation of the renminbi, and the risk of a currency war // hot money also flowed outside into London and NY property market! in search for yield and diversified portfolio by the newly minted paper rich Chinese 1% - 10%. // Slow down hammered already commodity market and energy prices. And now fear of a real hurtful economic slowdown of China - western world panicked. Selling off world wide. and taking money out of neighbouring countries of China and other emerging and developing countries. // PBOC is willing to risk currency war, ie with Japan!?
China  QE  reflate  reflation  GFC  recovery  economic  history  2015  correction  distortion  asset  bubble  equity  bubble  property  bubble  speculative  bubbles  speculative  speculation  hunt  for  yield  asset  allocation  fiscal  stimulus  monetary  policy  fiscal  policy  bubble  bubbles  hot-money  infrastructure  investment  public  investment  devaluation  Yuan  RMB  PBOC  global  trade  global  economy  deflationary  deflation  western  world  globalization  globalisation  global  imbalances  secular  stagnation  developed  world  currency-war  currency  debasement  currency  war  ZIRP  NIRP  Japan  Abenomics  Yen 
august 2015 by asterisk2a
The Renminbi Rumba | FT Markets - YouTube
ppl surprised because western market was complacent. should have seen it on the horizon that it was a matter of time! // further competitive QE from Japan (new round of Abenomics post Q2'15 -0.4% results and Chinas three round of devaluations) will infuriate Asian neighbours. // commentary - bv.ms/1I0ucNL - tl;dr - its a correction (with some overshoot in less liquid market and emerging market (currencies)), market participants won't go yet on sidelines. &! bv.ms/1NqY7GS - At the very least, we have been long overdue for a simple 10 percent correction. And while the economic data has been on the mixed side, we don’t see the usual indicators of recession, at least in the U.S.
Yuan  RMB  China  devaluation  2015  Dollar  Taper  Fed  BOE  PBOC  monetary  policy  IMF  SDR  liberal  economic  reform  Asia  emerging  market  Developing  World  Frontier  Markets  Abenomics  QE  currency  war  currency  debasement  fiat  currency  Yen  economic  history 
august 2015 by asterisk2a
Global economy woes spark share falls - BBC News
Fed released minutes from its meeting on 28-29 July, showing that one policymaker was ready to vote for an interest rate rise at the meeting. Overall, the Fed thought conditions for a US rate rise "were approaching", but the economy was not ready yet. Other policymakers remained concerned that inflation would remain weak because of the strong dollar and falling commodity prices, which act as a double depressant on imports. The Fed's key interest rate has been kept near zero since December 2008. There has been speculation that the Fed will raise rates at its meeting in September, and last month Fed chair Janet Yellen said she thought a rate rise this year was likely. Following the release of the Fed's minutes, US stocks rallied briefly but then fell back, while the dollar weakened on the currency markets. The Dow Jones index ended Wednesday trading down 0.9%. [...] The committee also cited China as a potential problem, [...] [econ growth has 2 be sufficiently strong, incl labour mrkt]
China  Yuan  RMB  inflation  expectation  inflation  targeting  disinflation  inflation  wage  inflation  dis-inflation  deflationary  deflation  Fed  PBOC  currency  debasement  devaluation  currency  war  currency-war  Dollar  Japan  Yen  BOJ  Abenomics  economic  history  Taper  2015  recovery  labour  market  participation  rate  unemployment  structural  unemployment  long-term  unemployment  productivity  output  gap  distortion  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  secular  stagnation  UK  USA  Europe  BIS  Oil  price  OPEC  energy  price  New  Normal  FOMC  commodity  prices  global  trade  global  economy  headwinds 
august 2015 by asterisk2a
Tough outlook for emerging markets - BBC News
[ this was no demand led recovery, it was a central bank debt fuelled reflated recovery (as was dot.com), especially in equity markets. but not fundamentals. unintended consequences of ZIRP/NIRP and QE. flushing world financial markets with liquidity, but not the real world. real world problems still exist. ] A series of emerging market currencies are losing value and stock markets across the developing world are in retreat. The more excitable parts of the financial sector - and indeed on financial twitter (yes, there is such a thing) - are talking of a re-run of the Asian Financial Crisis of 1997. [...] Emerging market currencies have lost value against the dollar and currently stand at a six-and-a-half-year low in aggregate. The Financial Times today reports that almost $1tn of capital has flowed out of emerging economies in the last 13 months. [ now money hoping for Taper re-allocate some out of emerging and developing world ]
China  2015  emerging  market  developed  world  secular  stagnation  reflate  reflation  recovery  Developing  equity  bubble  hunt  for  yield  asset  allocation  asset  bubble  ZIRP  hot-money  QE  NIRP  BIS  centralbanks  deflationary  deflation  economic  history  Taper  devaluation  Yuan  RMB  capital-flight  globalisation  globalization  global  trade  OPEC  energy  price  Oil  price  technological  progress 
august 2015 by asterisk2a
Japan Exports Its Way to Irrelevance - Bloomberg View
[ Politicians as always will react with reactionary unimaginative policy, competing for the same pie. instead of enabling, supporting new pies to be created. ] But Abe needs to recognize, as China already has, that this is only the latest sign of a broader reality: Asia's old export model of economic growth no longer works. [...] All the stimulus BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda can muster won't change the worsening trajectory of the region's most-populous nation. That's why Abe needs to take a page from Beijing and focus more on creating new industries at home. [ the base of home grown new market/category/vertical also includes sound middle class to buy those products. demand at home. social safety net (security). and less inequality. progressive taxation. fight tax evasion/avoidance, monopoles, monopsonies, bribery, corruption. and politicians making policy for lobby. ]
Germany  Exportweltmeister  Japan  China  India  Latin  America  competitive  competition  competitiveness  flat  world  borderless  globalization  globalisation  differentiate  differentiation  Abenomics  economic  history  IMF  OECD  global  economy  global  trade  Future  of  Work  Universal  Basic  Income  tax  free  Mobile  Creatives  Mobile  Creative  3D  printing  Software  Is  Eating  The  Robotics  automation  ownership  cost  of  ownership  Millennials  consumerist  consumerism  Frontier  Markets  Developing  western  world  UK  USA  Europe  secular  stagnation  developed  world  current  account  deficit  lohndumping  Lohnzurückhaltung  liberal  economic  reform  neoliberalism  neoliberal  Career  Politicians  No  Representation  technological  progress  biotechnologie  biotechnology  on-demand  convenience  marketplace  efficiencies  commodity  business  commoditization  deflationary  deflation  21stcentury  Industrial  Revolution  2.0  policy  error  policy  folly  inequality  Gini  coefficient  social  mobility  mobility  squeezed  middle  class  complexity  Supply  and  Demand  Demand  and  Supply  unknown  unkown  unintended  consequences  asset  bubble  asset  allocation  hunt  for  yield  currency  currency  policy  policy  w 
august 2015 by asterisk2a
China's Devaluation Becomes Japan's Problem - Bloomberg View
The worsening economy, which voters hoped Abe would have sorted out by now, doesn't help. Inflation-adjusted wages dropped 2.9 percent in June, a sign Monday's second-quarter gross domestic product report for the may be truly ugly. [...] After 961 days, all Abenomics has really achieved is a sharply weaker yen, modest steps to tighten corporate governance and marketing slogans asking companies to hire more women. [...] If Japan offers a cautionary tale, it's that weaker currency alone isn't the answer. If Abe had used the yen's 35 percent plunge since late 2012 to good effect -- passing big reforms on labor flexibility, import tariffs, tax policy, supporting startups, reducing red tape -- Japan might not be facing the prospect of another recession. [ Japan's experience is a red flashing warning light for UK, US and especially Germany. ie uncompetitive Zombie corporations held alive with NIRP, ZIRP, and future new normal low interest rate environment. Where is growth? Silicon Valley. ]
Japan  economic  history  Abenomics  BOJ  2015  China  Yuan  RMB  currency  debasement  currency  war  devaluation  fiscal  policy  QE  ZIRP  NIRP  liquidity  trap  monetary  policy  deflationary  deflation  globalisation  globalization  secular  stagnation  western  world  UK  USA  Europe  Germany  Lohnzurückhaltung  lohndumping  Makers  competitive  competitiveness  Exportweltmeister  competitive  advantage  competition  flat  world  New  Normal  Richard  Koo  Developing  Frontier  Markets  borderless  global  trade  global  economy  balance  sheet  recession  consumer  confidence  debtoverhang  debt  servitude  sovereign  debt  crisis  Super  Cycle  financial  crisis  zombie  banks  zombie  corporations  zombi  banks  creative  destruction  Silicon  Valley  technological  progress  skill-biased  technological  change  Software  Is  Eating  The  Mobile  Creatives  Mobile  Future  of  Work  deleveraging  asset  bubble  Wall  Street  reflation  reflate  hunt  for  yield  asset  allocation  inflation  targeting  Fed  BOE  PBOC  ECB  monetary  transmission  mechanism  monetary  theory 
august 2015 by asterisk2a
China's currency devaluation could spark 'tidal wave of deflation' | Business | The Guardian
[3rd day in a row Yuan/RMB is devalued by PBOC (13/08/15)] “We’re all going to feel it: we’ll feel it through commodities; we’ll feel it through manufactured goods exports, not just from China but from everywhere that has to compete with it; and we’ll feel it through wages.” [...] China could be willing to let the yuan depreciate by as much as 25% over the next five years – “stone by stone, step by step” – in an attempt to restore the export-led growth that was such a winning formula [...] China [may be] trying to protect itself against the period of financial instability [following Taper by western central banks Fed/BOE] [or counter $ recent rise 21% & peg against $] [or fight home grown recession with kitchen sink] // &! bloom.bg/1gC8FFe &! bloom.bg/1WkMfZZ &! bloom.bg/1hy7O9l &! bloom.bg/1NpE4FI &! bv.ms/1IKB3fX // what is the new normal 4 growth in this global economy, competitive = keeping prices low = inflation & low interest rate pressure.
yuan  RMB  PBOC  China  devaluation  deflationary  deflation  UK  USA  Europe  Exportweltmeister  competition  competitive  competitiveness  Lohnzurückhaltung  lohndumping  secular  stagnation  western  world  globalisation  globalization  commodities  commodity  business  commoditization  Germany  Asia  Latin  America  borderless  flat  world  wage  growth  wage  stagnation  inflation  expectation  inflation  targeting  wage  pressure  productivity  output  gap  recovery  GFC  economic  history  New  Normal  hunt  for  yield  Great  Moderation  fiscal  policy  monetary  policy  QE  ZIRP  NIRP  Taper  unintended  consequences  unknown  unkown  complexity  Industrial  Revolution  2.0  IMF  SDR  currency  war  disinflation  inflation  wage  inflation  Japan  Australia  Oil  price  energy  price  Developing  Frontier  Markets  Forex  USD  British  Pound  Euro  Yen  BOJ  BOE  Fed  ECB  Bank  of  Canada  asset  bubble  macroprudential  policy  asset  allocation  productive  investment  underinvestment  business  investment  2015 
august 2015 by asterisk2a
China devalues yuan currency to three-year low - BBC News
bbc.in/1WfUOFp // The weakening of the currency will also put the US Fed on the spot. In effect China is exporting deflation to the US - and so some will argue that the Fed should find an elegant way to back away from its recent signalling that September will see the first rise in interest rates since the Crash of 2008. Or to put it another way, in terms of US manufacturers and exporters, Beijing has done the monetary tightening that arguably the US economy needs. // &! tcrn.ch/1Tnj89s Apple shares reaction -5%, higher import costs. // &! bbc.in/1TrsssP - rattles the markets. // &! bit.ly/1JdPM8F - Der starke Verlust des Yuan deutete darauf hin, dass China einen Währungskrieg mit dem Westen provoziert. Doch tatsächlich spiegelt der niedrige Kurs die Schwäche der chinesischen Wirtschaft. // &! 3rd day, 3 devaluation move - bit.ly/1Ns1kmu &! Western central banks advised to resist [taper] & 2 prepare 2 ward off deflationary slump in face of cheaper Chinese exports - bit.ly/1DLIEy3
China  economic  growth  2015  yuan  currency  war  devaluation  PBOC  Taper  USA  UK  deflationary  deflation  RMB  Japan  Europe  Germany  disinflation  inflation  expectation  dis-inflation  inflation  inflation  targeting  western  world  BOE  Fed  ECB  BOJ  Brazil  Australia  commodities  IMF  SDR  Forex  Yen  USD  Euro  British  Pound  recovery  faultlines  global  trade  global  economy  globalisation  globalization  global  imbalances  savings  glut  hunt  for  yield  asset  bubble  asset  allocation  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  distortion  unintended  consequences  unknown  unkown  monetary  policy  Oil  price  energy  price 
august 2015 by asterisk2a
China Central-Bank Adviser Urges Yuan Reform - WSJ.com
Xia Bin, a member of the Chinese central bank's monetary advisory committee, said China should aim for full yuan convertibility over the next 10 years.
Such a move is important, Mr. Xia said, for a "rising power" like China. "Our longer-term goal must be integrating into the floating exchange rates of the international system," he said. But he wouldn't comment on whether the current pace of yuan appreciation versus the dollar is moving rapidly enough to fulfill that goal.
Yuan  China  Forex  USD  dollar 
march 2011 by asterisk2a
G-20 Clash Over Recovery Risks ’Sub-Potential’ Growth (Update1) - Bloomberg.com
At a meeting of Group of 20 finance chiefs in Busan, South Korea, June 4-5, Treasury Secretary Timothy F. Geithner said the world cannot again bank on the cash-strapped U.S. consumer to drive growth and urged other nations to stimulate their own demand. European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet said fiscal tightening in “old industrialized economies” would aid the expansion by shoring up investor confidence.

Each strategy carries threats for the global rebound that the G-20 said faces “significant challenges.” Continued stimulus risks bondholder revolt over rising debt burdens, while spending cutbacks could worsen unemployment. Relying on exports leaves the world prone to trade wars and competitive currency devaluations as countries seek to give their companies an edge.

Each strategy carries threats for the global rebound that the G-20 said faces “significant challenges.” Continued stimulus risks bondholder revolt over rising debt burdens, while spending cutbacks coul
G20  june  fiscal  monetary  policy  greatrecession  tobin-tax  banking  recession  2010  recovery  demand  growth  Europe  timgeithner  germany  USA  PIIGS  austerity  capital  liquidity  basel2  export  exports  currency  currencies  euro  yen  dollar  yuan  protectionism  economics 
june 2010 by asterisk2a
World economy: Fear returns | The Economist
Unfortunately, Germany’s government seems to be drawing exactly the opposite conclusions, promising to set an example with tough cuts when it should be helping to stimulate growth. The worry is that, under German pressure, the ECB will have the same misguided tendency to toughness, condemning the euro area to years of stagnation.

Governments outside the euro zone are also at risk of drawing flawed conclusions, especially on exchange rates and fiscal policy. China seems to think that the euro’s decline makes it less urgent to allow the yuan to appreciate. The opposite is true. With its biggest export market in a funk, China needs to accelerate the rebalancing of its economy towards domestic consumption, with the help of a stronger currency.
PIIGS  Europe  stagnation  austerity  Spain  Greece  Euro  ECB  monetary  fiscal  policy  trichet  Germany  China  yuan  currencies  Dollar  growth  deflation  deflationary 
june 2010 by asterisk2a
ECB Releases Collateral Schedule, Announces Will No Longer Accept Non-Euro Denominated Collateral | zero hedge
What is notable, however, is that the ECB has highlighted it will no longer accept non euro-denominated collateral after 2010. This is not good for countries which plan on syndicating dollar-denominated debt, as has been recently the case for Portugal, and, currently, Greece. Although in Greece's case we tend to think the country doesn't give a rat's behind about whether new issuance will be eligible, and is much more focused on just avoiding default.
ECB  euro  dollar  collateral  2011  2012  2010  china  worldtrade  yuan 
april 2010 by asterisk2a
PIMCO Is Long CAD, AUD And CNY; Short EUR, GBP And JPY, And Other Disclosures By Paul McCulley | zero hedge
Q: What structural headwinds stand in the way of recovery in the U.S.?
McCulley: We believe the U.S. is in the second stage of a three-stage recovery. The economy was first propped up by policy response – low interest rates and fiscal stimulus. Currently, we are moving from the dark to the sunny side of the inventory cycle. The final stage – job creation, private income creation and self-sustaining demand growth – has yet to materialize, due to headwinds of deleveraging and de-risking.

We like to use the analogy of the three-stage-rocket; we are waiting for the thrust from that third rocket. There’s a great deal of uncertainty surrounding the hand-off from stimulus and inventories to job creation, and that is reflected in the Federal Reserve’s continued exceptionally low interest rate policy.
We believe the severe austerity measures brought on by the fiscal problems in the periphery countries, such as Greece and Spain, will lead to a chronic shortfall of Euroland-wide aggregate demand
recovery  usa  2010  inventory  greatrecession  QE  MBS  treasuries  Fed  monetary  policy  greece  spain  bailout  ECB  demand  economics  richardkoo  deflation  inflation  output-gap  china  currency  yuan  dollar  politics  timgeithner 
april 2010 by asterisk2a
Geithner Delays Congressional Currency Report To Avoid Insulting China
The Obama administration is delaying a report to Congress on currency policies amid calls from some lawmakers that it should cite China as a currency manipulator harmful to the U.S. economy.

Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner said Saturday that he will delay publication of the report, due April 15, because several high-level international meetings in the coming months will be a better way to advance the United States' position.

Still, Geithner said in a statement that China should adopt "a more market-oriented exchange rate" to balance the U.S. trade deficit with China, which totaled $226.8 billion last year – the largest imbalance with any country. U.S. manufacturers say China's yuan is undervalued by as much as 40 percent and is a big reason for the massive trade deficit.
timgeithner  china  usa  currency  currencies  dollar  tradedeficit  yuan  barackobama 
april 2010 by asterisk2a

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