asterisk2a + summers   12

Stocks are up. But it appears to us that the U.S. economy is going down. Go figure.
velocity is at 57yr low - WOW! the money that is in circulation is in less hands! the econ expanded according to GDP, but less and less $ reach on avg each hand. - "This is serious. The velocity of money tracks how often each dollar is used to buy something in the economy. Falling velocity shows that consumers and business are pulling back… becoming more reluctant to spend and invest… downsizing… and holding onto dollars rather than spending them. This has a similar effect as reducing the supply of money bidding for goods and services. Prices drop. Deflation, in other words. The bubble has developed a leak. The hot air is gushing out." //&! //&! &! - it is associated with stagnant NGDP [...] demand problem.
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april 2016 by asterisk2a
Weltwirtschaft: Ökonomen halten Ende des Wachstums für unvermeidlich - SPIEGEL ONLINE
Weltwirtschaft: Ökonomen halten Ende des Wachstums für unvermeidlich [...] Ein Beispiel: Wenn das Bruttosozialprodukt eines Landes 10 Milliarden Euro beträgt und um eine Milliarde Euro wächst, dann entspricht das einer Steigerung von zehn Prozent. Wenn das BIP aber 1000 Milliarden Euro beträgt, dann müsste die Wirtschaft schon um 100 Milliarden Euro wachsen, um ein Wachstum von zehn Prozent zu schaffen. Wächst das BIP wie vorher um eine Milliarde Euro, entspricht das nur noch einer Steigerung von 0,1 Prozent. Die Wirtschaft wäre dann sozusagen ausgewachsen. Die alten Zeiten kehren nicht mehr zurück [...] Sollten die Ökonomen recht haben, hätte das für Staat und Sozialsysteme einschneidende Folgen: Die Planung von Bundeshaushalt oder Rentenkasse geht von einem Wachstum irgendwo zwischen ein und zwei Prozent pro Jahr aus. [...] Die Wirtschaft "unabhängiger vom Wachstum gestalten"
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february 2016 by asterisk2a
US stocks nosedive in early trading amid collapse in global markets | Business | The Guardian
[ great reflation move since 09, finds another opportunity (this time because of China) to reflect. meaning to reassess reality. same with the collapse in emerging market, money going out of high yield & risk back to US/UK in hope of Taper and then came the hammer in form of China scare, people taking even more money out of emerging market/Chinas neighbours into the safe haven (perceived) that is the $/£/EUR market ] Dow dropped more than 1,000 points shortly after the markets opened, but it recovered slightly to be down 620 points, or 6%, shortly before 10am. Dow, which had suffered big falls last week, was trading below 16,000 at 10am – the first time it has been below that level since February 2014. The index is 14% below its record peak in May, putting the Dow firmly into “correction” territory – Wall Street jargon for a drop of 10% or more from a recent peak. &! &! - Summers argued for fiscal stimulus, debate about secular stagnation.
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august 2015 by asterisk2a
Macroeconomics Causes of Inequality - YouTube
"consumption drives much of the economy" // free up disposable income >> free child care, health care, limit exploitation of financial illiterate people (% interest on pay day loans, overdraft charges, dispo), public services, social services, pension contribution by state (preventing poverty at old age), tax credits for low income and children and carers, free education and vocational education/continual education - enabling to move up the ladder, // min11 - secular stagnation post GFC compared to previous recessions in terms of real household demand (balance sheet recession, debt overhang, deleveraging (debt repayment), and lack of new issuance of consumer credit I guess, too + rising income equality! lower redistribution from top to bottom (fair taxation) reduces recycling of income (freed up by policy items above) into demand. // min 18 - top 5% society (luxury, vanity, status) takes over bottom 80% society in aggregate terms of consumption. Economy driven by WHOM?! Affluent!
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may 2015 by asterisk2a
Larry Summers: I'm Concerned U.S. Growth Won't Pick Up - YouTube
Not enough investment in productive entities that create living wage & middle class jobs. // credit induced growth & exhaustion of easy growth (China) // Debt Fueled Growth ends rarely gently. (GFC) // western world >> too little internal demand, its deflation and inflation
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may 2015 by asterisk2a
Why 'secular stagnation' matters - BBC News
The question at stake is the issue of "secular stagnation", which is probably the biggest and most important controversy in macroeconomics today. This is not though a debate for the ivory tower, it's an issue with significant real world implications. [...] So what is secular stagnation? It's an idea that originated in the late 1930s with the US Keynesian economist Alvin Hansen. He worried that growth was fundamentally slowing and emphasised demographic factors (such as slowing population growth) as a driver of this. [ western world needs immigration as reproduction level is below 1, capitalism and our economics is fundy based on econ growth, but that is, on the horizon, not possible (excl inflation). what if population is stable!? ] [...] In a nutshell secular stagnation is an attempt to explain the weakness of the global recovery in advanced economies since the 2008 crisis. [ decelerating, debt overhang, balancesheet recession, sov debt crisis ] [...]
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april 2015 by asterisk2a
The Federal Reserve in a Time for Doves by Kenneth Rogoff - Project Syndicate
The importance of technical competence in monetary policy has been proved repeatedly by central banks around the world. [...] the quality of monetary policy depends critically on whether central bankers have a clear and nuanced understanding of policy making and inflation. The 1920’s, 1930’s, and 1970’s are replete with examples of central bankers who did not understand the basics, and whose economies paid the price. What this means is not just competence in setting interest rates, but also competence in regulatory policy. [...] For the past 25 years, the mantra of “inflation targeting” (introduced in my 1985 paper) has served as a mechanism for containing inflation expectations by reassuring the public of the central bank’s intentions. But excessive emphasis on low inflation targets can be counterproductive in the aftermath of the worst financial crisis in 75 years. Rather than worrying about inflation, central bankers should focus on reflating the economy.
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august 2013 by asterisk2a
Yellen losing Fed nod could have more to do with 2016 than Summers | ForexLive
The decision might be about gender but not in the way you think. Democrats hoping to place Hilary Clinton in the White House might think it’s a bridge too far to elect the first female President at the same time as Yellen leading the Fed. I tend to think the White House is looking for the best person for the economy but that might be naive in the cold, calculated world of US politics. In any case, Reuters cites a source close to Obama saying the president hasn’t made up his mind. + + > >> two guys at the helm was never a problem. Sexism and gender discrimination is still alive showing its ugly face.
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july 2013 by asterisk2a

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