asterisk2a + shiller   9

Masters in Business: Nobel-Prize Economist Paul Krugman (Audio) by Bloomberg View
// most times conviction is lacking, trapped in the bubble, no non-conformity, too much of a comfortable life. // 28:30! Confidence Fairy >> austerity from 2010! vested interest plays big role! Policy Makers are on the side of credit, on bond holders. bond holders don't like inflationary period! ... Hyperinflation will come any day! // 31:00 econ needs to be reformulated in class rooms to be much broader subject! << see robert shiller interview! ie behaviour, sociology and psychology, irrational behaviour // 44:15 on keynes! was no left wing socialist, he tried to save capitalism! he had world changing analysis! sometimes there can not be enough demand, same with sometimes it is good to have waste vs nothing, pointless ways to spend money can have a positive effect. ie infrastructure investment - repaving roads = less private repair bills! public transportation = less drunk driving accidents. history shows fiscal stimulus gets always too early withdrawn from deficit hawks!
economic  history  GFC  Paul  Krugman  Thomas  Piketty  inequality  Gini  coefficient  income  inequality  social  mobility  income  mobility  paulkrugman  repo  bankrun  speculative  bubbles  subprime  Generationengerechtigkeit  Policy  Makers  constituency  George  Osborne  austerity  error  folly  credit  bubble  secular  stagnation  debt  servitude  Super  Cycle  Japan  Abenomics  fiscal  monetary  Richard  Koo  KennethRogoff  USA  UK  European  Union  lost  decade  lost  generation  Robert  Shiller  robertshiller  book  miltonfriedman  friedmann  JohnMaynardKeynes  keynes  Keynesianism  budget  deficit  GeorgeOsborne  fiscal  stimulus  GordonBrown  underinvestment  recovery  productivity  output  gap  liquidity  trap  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  infrastructure  investment  Richardkoo  public  investment  productive  investment  business  investment  short-termism  neoliberalism  neoliberal  Privatisation  trickle-down  economics  Super  Rich  1%  oligarchy  plutocracy  social  democracy  corporate  welfare  subsidies  subsidizing 
february 2016 by asterisk2a
Masters in Business: Yale Professor Robert Shiller (Audio) by Bloomberg View
history has proven again, markets are not efficient long-term // psychology is disreputable in econ department. // cognitive dissonance - justifying X action by looking around ... / Efficient-market hypothesis is a hypothesis for a reason; "it's a half-truth" "sometimes market moves don't reflect market news." // irrational exuberance // book fooled by randomness // 24:00 eugene phama - markets are very efficient, prices reflect all the knowledge out there, just buy the index, don't try to beat the market. buy passive index // don't play poker with your life savings. << robert shiller // 30:00 look at politics science, sociology, psychology - influence markets, people. broader disciplines. economists disregard them. // finance is about manage risk! about being a productive society and progress, and not suffer from boom and bust cycle! + financing activities ie VC gov supported R&D // & gov being a support pillar for all and not picking winners, can't forecast the future!
free  market  marketplace  efficiencies  marketplace  inefficiencies  efficient-market  hypothesis  complexity  human  Wall  Street  crowd  herd  herding  speculative  bubbles  distortion  economic  history  GFC  subprime  book  Robert  Shiller  robertshiller  behavioral  finance  behavioral  economics  finance  corporate  welfare  subsidies  subsidizing  corporate  tax  rate  R&D  Venture  Capital  Angel  Investor  Seed  Round  risk  pension  fund  pension  obligation  401k  public  pension  pension  scheme  pension  marginal  propensity  to  consume  plutocracy  Super  Rich  1%  Greed  oligarchy  self-regulation  disposable  income  discretionary  spending  negative  equity  boom  &  bust  secular  stagnation  shareholder  value  profit  maximisation 
february 2016 by asterisk2a
Börse: Warum Schwellenländer für die Kurskrise sorgen - Kolumne - SPIEGEL ONLINE
Chronisch überschüssige Leistungsbilanz [ & Over capacity for less/stagnant demand ... + biggest credit bubble (china) popped as the west can't afford more. QE and ZIRP has run it's way! ] [...] Der Grund, warum der deutsche Aktienindex weitaus mehr betroffen ist als andere europäische Indizes, liegt allein an der strukturellen Abhängigkeit der deutschen Industrie von Blasen in anderen Ländern. Anstatt auf bessere Stimmung zu hoffen, sind Anleger gut beraten, sich über den weiteren Verlauf der Schwellenländerkrise Gedanken zu machen. [...] [ Fed taper makes things more difficult to serve debt ] [...] Langfristig sind es die Gewinne und nicht die Zinsen, die die Aktienpreise treiben. //&! China (Asia/BRIC/Frontier Market) Corporate Bond Yields up - bit.ly/1Sme7fV & NPL probably too. //&! If property is biggest item of household wealth in a property bubble (UK, China, ... USA) - bit.ly/1Zpiy8M
trade  deficit  BRIC  credit  bubble  western  world  secular  stagnation  macroeconomic  policy  China  Japan  Germany  UK  USA  Brazil  commodity  prices  Oil  price  NPL  shadow  banking  shadow  economy  banking  crisis  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  QT  speculative  bubbles  property  bubble  mortgage  market  Fed  BOE  ECB  European  Union  sovereign  debt  crisis  household  debt  consumer  debt  credit  card  debt  car  loan  private  debt  corporate  debt  tax  evasion  tax  avoidance  austerity  corporate  welfare  subsidies  subsidizing  Russia  OPEC  aggregate  demand  liquidity  trap  Richard  Koo  Richardkoo  debtoverhang  balance  sheet  recession  debt  servitude  student  loan  debt  Super  Cycle  debt  bubble  student  debt  debt  monetisation  debt  monetization  student  loan  discretionary  spending  disposable  income  squeezed  middle  class  precarious  work  Precariat  working  poor  neoliberalism  neoliberal  globalization  globalisation  borderless  flat  world  trade  agreement  Hegemony  TPP  TTIP  TISA  CETA  NAFTA  Africa  South  Africa  global  trade  trade  balance  current  account  deficit  Frontier  Markets  faultlines  structural  imbalance  global  imbalances  Taper  reflate  reflation  equity  bubble  Abenomics  economic  history  India  irrational  exuberance  Robert  Shiller  inequality  Gini  coefficient  deflationary 
january 2016 by asterisk2a
Phishing for phools | Robert Shiller | TEDxYale - YouTube
Adam Smith: ppl love praise. Adults strive for praise worthiness. // deceptive flattery through praise ... // teach sense of praise worthiness. focus on what you are learning, why you are learning it ... [ & growth mindset ]
Robert  Shiller  robertshiller  growth  mindset  book  intrinsic  motivation  life  hacker  life  lesson 
july 2015 by asterisk2a
The Coming Crash & The Recession That Never Ended - Part 1 - YouTube
Part 2 youtu.be/SpJ4L2QGNI4 [ min 2:00 post WW2 german debt jubilee - American & Britain needed Germany as bulwark against USSR! thus Germany had leverage because it was systemic. Greece is not systemic, nor needed. Thus they openly talk, relaxed, abt Grexit. Grexit was systemic risk in the first ~3 years post GFC, because of underfunded German, Frensh and Belgian zombie banks. 6:00 PIGS generation will be disillusioned about claims of European Union unity! 7:30 austerity ] // &! Part 3 - youtu.be/FWulzJy2oXc Bernie Sanders on inequality &! social mobility, skills gap, ... make-up of USA economy is a impediment to future growth (output gap, no more 3% annually) & also part-cause of inequality ... &! Part 4 youtu.be/8wzDwU1pzpY - China may tumble bc they dont have the internal & global demand for the infrasturcture/economy they have build (debtoverhang, debt servitude) &or social uprising &! USA overreach // Forget QE, Wall Street’s new drug is the stock buyback - on.mktw.net/1HDtdUR
Richard  Wolff  Taper  equity  bubble  China  irrational  exuberance  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  unintended  consequences  unknown  unkown  asset  bubble  hunt  for  yield  stock  buyback  fundamentals  economic  growth  recovery  UK  USA  balance  sheet  recession  Europe  Richard  Koo  job  creation  Service  Sector  Jobs  labour  market  participation  rate  underemployed  structural  unemployment  structural  imbalance  Impediments  unemployment  youth  unemployment  long-term  unemployment  Gini  coefficient  income  growth  disposable  income  low  income  income  distribution  income  inequality  wage  growth  wage  stagnation  employment  self-employment  squeezed  middle  class  precarious  work  working  poor  social  mobility  income  mobility  Robert  Shiller  robertshiller  part-time  Contractor  Zero  Hour  Contract  uncertainty  Niedriglohnsektor  minimum  wage  Niedriglohn  Lohnzurückhaltung  lohndumping  Zeitarbeit  Leiharbeit  monetary  policy  fiscal  policy  deleveraging  debtoverhang  savings  rate  debt  servitude  Super  Cycle  behavioral  economics  behavioral  finance  skills  gap  education  policy  vocational  education  economic  history  economic  model  trickle-down  economics  discretionary  spending  dogma  ideology  austerity  neoliberal  neoliberalism  democracy  Career  Politicians  No  Representation  debt  monetisation  debt  stagnation  inequality  history  debt  debt  debt  m 
july 2015 by asterisk2a
Yellen sees growing confidence in US - BBC News
'we will raise rates as economy can take it.' meaning if economy can't take it and a bubble is staring you in the face, they won't use rates (or even any other monetary policy tool), lets not even start on macroprudential policy under the current state of Congress ... to reign in an obvious bubble. Richard Koo argues, western world still in balance sheet recession. and shiller argues we are at risk to suffer another financial crisis and we have no tool left to fight a downward drag, to quote BIS // The chair of the US Federal Reserve, Janet Yellen, has suggested there's growing confidence in the US economy. And after more than six years of near-zero interest rates - it seems a rate rise is likely sometime this year. But facing Congress, the Fed chair faced some tough questions from politicians wondering why the increase was taking so long. // &! youtu.be/zn5zt1XzX6g - Fed Chair Janet Yellen's Testimony in Two Minutes
Taper  Fed  2015  2016  QE  ZIRP  NIRP  macroprudential  policy  monetary  policy  GFC  dot.com  irrational  exuberance  secular  stagnation  Richard  Koo  balance  sheet  recession  liquidity  trap  deleveraging  debtoverhang  consumer  debt  credit  card  household  debt  private  debt  BIS  Robert  Shiller  robertshiller  unconventional  monetary  policy  monetary  system  monetary  transmission  mechanism  monetary  theory  monetary  stimulus  bond  bubble  China  equity  bubble  global  economy  asset  bubble  hunt  for  yield  unknown  unkown  unintended  consequences 
july 2015 by asterisk2a
Robert J. Shiller: "Are We Headed for Another Financial Crisis?" (final edition, as of MAR 8) - YouTube
3rd ed adds bond market. where richard koo explains bond prices are a symptom of the balance sheet recession as is "deflationary." // liquidity trap // predicting turning points is bad business - highlighting fundy skew is easy. // equity bubble BURST? no. bond bubble BURST? no. how abt unreasonable higher interest rates for businesses bc of Taper from Fed long dated bonds into illiquid market. like Koo argues as possibility, which would depress gdp growth further bc of higher capital cost than the economy fundy actually would demand. contributing 2 the secular stagnation. // Other case: Crash of China (too much of a good thing, irrational exuberance) & Western Central Banks have no means 2 ease further & Career Politicians have no guts 2 actually pull out the guns for once 4 intelligent fiscal stimulus w a long-term view (no white elephants & bridges 2 nowhere). // 19:30 status anxiety, Sozialer Abstieg, everyone for himself, austerity, inequality, Software, etc = secular stagnation
Robert  Shiller  financialcrisis  GFC  economic  history  book  recovery  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  credit  bubble  equity  bubble  property  bubble  speculative  bubbles  speculative  speculation  psychology  confidence  irrational  exuberance  animal  spirit  austerity  Fiscal  Pact  Schuldenbremse  ideology  dogma  economic  model  financial  crisis  housing  market  UK  USA  China  Japan  Richard  Koo  deflationary  hunt  for  yield  sustainable  sustainability  Richardkoo  balance  sheet  recession  deflation  secular  stagnation  negative  real  interest  rate  Taper  BOJ  BOE  Fed  ECB  sovereign  debt  crisis  monetary  policy  monetary  system  monetary  stimulus  unconventional  monetary  policy  monetary  transmission  mechanism  monetary  theory  modern  monetary  theory  policy  stimulus  crony  capitalism  mainstreet.org  mainstreet  Wall  Street  exploitation  uncertainty  deleveraging  savings  rate  business  investment  Sozialer  Abstieg  inequality  income  inequality  tax  code  capital  gains  fairness  Software  Is  Eating  The  World  consumer  confidence  business  confidence  public  investment  productive  investment  personal  investment  underinvestment  infrastructure  investment  socioeconomic  status  status  anxiety  social  status  zombie  consumer  zombie  corporations  zombie  banks  Gesellschaft  solidarity  society  soziologie  sociology  worry  squeezed  middle  class  precariou 
july 2015 by asterisk2a
Credit Booms & Credit Busts - YouTube
// financial cycle twice as long as business cycles (which is on top, like an inverted pyramid). // financial markets are not self-stabilising // better make policy on caution, that if you don't act you will cause more long-lasting economic damage by curbing one obvious bubble not in (ie uk property bubble - people who have difficulty serving their interest payment) // QE does not facilitate loan growth in times of balance sheet recession - Richard Koo // QE is reflationary and currency war, downside size unknown - look Richard Koo, state has to pick-up shortfall of demand // // There is now a growing consensus among policymakers and academics that a key element to improve safeguards against financial instability is to strengthen the “macroprudential” orientation of regulatory and supervisory frameworks. [Dr. Claudio Borio @ BIS], one could even say that “we are all macroprudentialists now”. And yet, a decade ago, the term was hardly used. What does it mean?
BIS  equity  bubble  speculative  bubbles  credit  bubble  asset  bubble  property  bubble  macroprudential  policy  macroeconomic  policy  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  Taper  unintended  consequences  unknown  unkown  complexity  bond  bubble  Student  Loan  debt  debt  regulation  oversight  governance  BOE  simplicity  incomplete  information  academia  academics  economist  behavioral  economics  behavioral  finance  economic  history  systemicrisk  EuropeanSystemicRiskBoard  financial  market  sustainable  sustainability  mortgage  market  UK  USA  China  speculative  speculation  contagion  monetary  policy  unconventional  monetary  policy  monetary  theory  modern  monetary  theory  credit  boom  financial  cycle  Makers  policy  folly  policy  error  Career  Politicians  short-term  thinking  short-term  view  political  economy  political  theory  centralbanks  economic  damage  economic  model  Richard  Koo  animal  spirit  austerity  monetary  transmission  mechanism  robertshiller  Robert  Shiller  ideology  dogma  sovereign  debt  crisis  populism  corporate  state  manufactured  consent  Lügenpresse  BOJ  Fed  currency  war  currency  debasement  ECB  negative  real  interest  rate  Japan  hunt  for  yield  irrational  exuberance 
july 2015 by asterisk2a
Irrational Exuberance: as relevant as ever - YouTube
bubbles = confluence of precipitating factors // followed by price to price feedback, price to gdp feedback 'wealth effect' [very applicable to property bubble in UK],
debt  bubble  equity  bubble  credit  bubble  speculative  bubbles  asset  bubble  bond  bubble  property  bubble  Student  Loan  bubble  bubbles  economic  history  Robert  Shiller  robertshiller 
july 2015 by asterisk2a

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