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asterisk2a + piigsfb   36

The new European Union | Credit Writedowns
[ EU banking system was too big to bail in case Greece and else would default even in parts on some of its debt and or make no or delay repayment with interest in full ] In conclusion, the conditions asked of Greece are not likely to be met, because they cannot be met. Greece will be blamed for not living up to its commitments, as it has been this time around. Yet, somehow, the notion of asking for the impossible from a country that has no choice but to sign is fundamentally perverse. [...] The mistake was to break the no-bailout clause that was designed to make sure the Eurozone would not find itself in this position. For selfish reasons (i.e. preventing a bank crisis in Europe and the US), Greece was convinced to accept the first bailout in 2010.
Greece  bank  bailout  banking  crisis  bank  crisis  investment  banking  retail  banking  TBTF  too  big  to  jail  too  big  to  bail  European  Union  Positioning  ECB  Career  Politicians  lobbyist  lobby  Lobbying  crony  capitalism  corporate  scandal  austerity  accounting  scandal  bailout  bail-in  Cyprus  of  Cyprus  deposit  haircut  deposit  levy  fairness  Generationengerechtigkeit  Wall  Street  profit  maximisation  shareholder  value  economic  history  fiscal  policy  monetary  policy  Basel3  banking  fractional  reserve  banking  EuropeanSystemicRiskBoard  GFC  recovery  Debt  Super  Cycle  Privatisation  ideology  dogma  PIIGSFB  PIGS  PIIGS  France  Germany  Bundesbank  trichet  Jens  Weidmann  Angela  Merkel  Peer  Steinbrück  corruption  blackmail  josefackermann  ackermann  Deutsche  subsidies  subsidizing  Mark  Blyth  social  contract  social  tension  social  cohesion  constituency  Nationalizing  badbank  badbanks  restructuring  monetary 
october 2015 by asterisk2a
Henryk M. Broder über Deutschland: "Ein opferbereites Volk" - SPIEGEL ONLINE
Nationalstolz? Keineswegs. Henryk M. Broder attestiert Deutschland stattdessen eine "sonderbare Form der Selbstverachtung". Der Publizist über das fehlende Selbstbewusstsein der Deutschen.
Angela  Merkel  Wolfgang  Schäuble  GroKo  Germany  Deutschland  foreign  affairs  foreign  policy  foreign  relations  refugee  crisis  corporate  espionage  industrial  espionage  cyber  espionage  sovereign  debt  crisis  bank  bailout  banking  crisis  TBTF  too  big  to  jail  too  big  to  bail  PIIGSFB  Career  Politicians  No  Representation  history  European  Europe  Nationalism  Russia  Ukraine  Ukrain  Middle  East  Putin  vladimirputin  Crimea  Crimea  G  Zero  USA  presidency  barackobama  Iraq  War  UK  France  China 
october 2015 by asterisk2a
In the loop October 2: Flemish separatism, F1 and the Juncker plan by POLITICO Europe
min 17 - behind-the-scenes fight in the European Parliament over the appointment of top managers for the so-called Juncker Plan: a €315 billion EU investment plan. // threat of White Elephants, roads and bridges to nowhere ... only politicians can put themselves in front of photojournalists for photo op. no productive investments into the future. renewable, smart grid, private public paternerships, carbon emission reduction projects ie urbanisation planning projects to half city traffic and put cycling network in place, and zero emission public transportation, ... --- no accountability, no oversight no transparency. risk of corruption, bribery, dirty handshakes, ...
European  Union  technocrat  bureaucrat  Jean-Claude  Juncker  infrastructure  investment  STEM  Research  R&D  underinvestment  fiscal  policy  Pact  fiscal  stimulus  public  investment  business  investment  Schuldenbremse  Politics  Career  Politicians  No  Representation  Brussels  European  Parliament  European  Election  2014  European  Commission  Eurobond  PIGS  PIIGSFB  Richard  Koo  secular  stagnation  Niall  Ferguson  Germany  Angela  Merkel  Wolfgang  Schäuble  Eurogroup  austerity  Grexit  business  confidence  consumer  confidence  excess  reserves  zombie  banks  zombie  corporations  zombie  consumer  ECB  QE  TLTRO  LTRO  monetary  policy  monetary  transmission  mechanism  monetary  stimulus  liquidity  trap  ZIRP  NIRP  corruption  ideology  dogma  campaign  promises  White  Elephant  productive  investment  productivity  Makers  policy  folly  social  contract  political  theory  accountability  transparency  oversight  2015 
october 2015 by asterisk2a
Flüchtlingskrise: Angela Merkel ist nicht mehr unantastbar - SPIEGEL ONLINE
Gerade noch galt Angela Merkel als unantastbar. Jetzt bröckeln die Sympathiewerte, die interne Kritik wird immer lauter. Die Flüchtlingskrise markiert eine Zäsur in Merkels Kanzlerschaft. // Putin bombt in Syrien, und die Welt schaut zu. Das schmerzt, ist aber eine logische Konsequenz des westlichen Versagens in der Nahostpolitik. - bit.ly/1KT1CAy
Brexit  Grexit  sovereign  debt  crisis  Wolfgang  Schäuble  Angela  Merkel  Career  Politicians  Greece  PIIGSFB  No  Representation  refugee  crisis  Middle  East  Russia  Syrien  Syria  Ukraine  Ukrain  NATO  ISIS  Iraq  Afghanistan  vladimirputin  Putin  foreign  affairs  USA  corporate  espionage  industrial  espionage  cyber  espionage  NSA  GCHQ  Five  Eyes  Aid  foreign  policy  foreign  relations  UK  France  history  Iraq  War 
october 2015 by asterisk2a
A doom scenario for the EU | FT Comment - YouTube
Brexit  refugee  crisis  European  Union  Political  Union  Schengen  Agreement  Euro  Grexit  sovereign  debt  crisis  Fiscal  Pact  Schuldenbremse  Angela  Merkel  Wolfgang  Schäuble  Tipping  Point  migration  migration  crisis  Middle  East  Turkey  Germany  error  folly  policy  folly  policy  error  Rechtsextremismus  Rechtsruck  European  Election  2014  Eritrea  Afghanistan  Iraq  Syrien  Syria  welfare  state  immigration  border  control  Polarisation  neoconservatism  neoconservatives  conservative  propaganda  populism  manufactured  consent  corporate  state  corporate  media  transferunion  PIIGSFB  PIGS  austerity  neoliberalism  neoliberal  democracy  Brussels  European  Commission  European  Parliament  TTIP  campaign  promises  Career  Politicians  social  tension  social  cohesion  social  contract  Leadership  vision  mission  execution  European  History 
september 2015 by asterisk2a
After the Crisis - Mark Blyth - YouTube
>> what if rise of the banks (deregulation, easy credit, global financial markets - arbitrage, and making money with money) fuelled the growth of the last ~25-30 years. // min 47 3 asset bubbles popped // USA - 40% of corporate profits came from 10% of corporate sector (banks) // 30% of MIT grads went to banks instead of real world engineering and manufacturing. // underwater private sector! via credit bubble: student loans (now 1trn and still rising in USA and UK, future disposable income/discretionary spending lower than babyboomers because of wage stagnation, no wage growth) credit cards, mortgages, heloc (home equity line of credit) --- all will have to focus on paying back debt. // 2015 - us student loans 1.25trn - bit.ly/1KJ29uc + auto loans << bubble to eventually pop when collateral is falling! ie stagnant wages for 10 more years. and more and more cant repay their student loans. // 1:12:00 Bubbles move on; dot.com, real estate (property) & commodities, China,
Mark  Blyth  austerity  GFC  recovery  banking  crisis  sovereign  debt  crisis  economic  history  PIIGSFB  bank  bailout  fairness  Generationengerechtigkeit  toobigtofail  too  big  to  jail  too  big  to  bail  TBTF  ECB  NPL  deleveraging  balance  sheet  recession  underwater  credit  bubble  trickle-down  economics  China  2015  2008  dot.com  western  world  secular  stagnation  debt  servitude  student  loan  debt  student  loan  student  debt  generationy  generation  rent  Millennials  disposable  income  discretionary  spending  marginal  propensity  to  consume  Super  Rich  squeezed  middle  class  Sozialer  Abstieg  self-employment  Zero  Hour  Contract  Contractor  underemployed  precarious  work  working  poor  inequality  Gini  coefficient  post-capitalism  crony  capitalism  capitalism  manufactured  consent  Polarisation  Thomas  Piketty  developed  world  income  inequality  propaganda  populism  corporate  state  corporate  media  democracy  Career  Politicians  lobbyist  Lobbying  lobby  deregulation  self-regulation  Workers  Union  wage  stagnation  wage  growth  income  distribution  income  growth  income  mobility  low  income  income  redistribution  stagnation  consumer  debt  debtoverhang  Super  Cycle  debt  bubble  household  debt  private  debt  asset  bubble  reflate  reflation  asset  allocation  distortion  monetary  policy  monetary  stimulus  monetary  monetary 
september 2015 by asterisk2a
(2015) Professor Steve Keen explains why austerity economics is naive - YouTube
youtu.be/-HHJ3q2TxEQ (2014) // Unable 2 sustain long-term economic growth! Next headwind (ie China, Summer pop 2015) could put it back into the ringer! No internal resilience long-term. Gross gov debt still rising & budget (tax income) short-fall enlarged than it would be otherwise. // & talking Schuldenbremse/compulsory budget surplus proposal >> Rising private debt 2 make up of the short-fall of public spending, that is what its institute of fiscal studies has been saying ever since Tories came into Office with its austerity agenda. // The next downturn (private debt rise stop & focus on servicing it/deleveraging + gov keeping austerity agenda) will be even steeper & harder! // On path of stagnation, of western world; how u serve that debt in New Normal of <~2% growth p/a & <2% inflation & <2% inflation expectations!? // &! youtu.be/-3aBjFo2Fh4 // youtu.be/WSfe6uyO5yE & youtu.be/4TTuPwIzFC0 - China "Crash." &! on.ft.com/1Ixhw1a 'Crazy China Crash Possible w contagion'
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august 2015 by asterisk2a
(2012/13) After the Financial Crisis: How to Tell the Forest from the Trees - YouTube
"Profits are privatized while losses are socialized. How we got here, and how we can get out of this situation." // min20 - UK debt2GDP 2008, +100% Debt on Banks Balance Sheet, ~100% Household Debt, +100% Nonfinancial institutional/corporate Debt, <50% Gov Debt ( bit.ly/1u6QiLP ) risen to <80% Gov Debt2GDP bc of Bank Bailout. ( gross national debt has been rising, unable to pay down because of lack of growth, turning Japan - bit.ly/1f7UNyp ) // It is still a banking crisis. Especially in Europe. Not a sovereign debt crisis. Greece situation made much worse because of austerity. // min 32 - talks about China! China's Assets and Liabilities. 70% of global consumption is US/EU. [but shifting!] From CDO example, China correlates with US/EU vice versa! Chinese property bubble & equity bubble, came 2 an end this Summer 2015! The crisis began w banks & will end w banks! The crisis is still with us. The banks, stupid! // investment banking bust bc of low yields across all public asset classes
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august 2015 by asterisk2a
The Draghi Put - YouTube
Draghi Put &! bit.ly/1fQ2lcq // &! bloom.bg/1Euf6peh // &! Mark Blyth Mackenzie Lecture 2015 – Austerity and the Politics of Money - youtu.be/B6vV8_uQmxs --- u cant make them lend (banks) 2 businesses (productive investment, closing productivity & output gap) particularly in a deflationary world with secular stagnation tendencies/signs, with non-existent inflation expectations! liquidity trap! dont get into higher growth path/gear! and infrastructure bonds (= Eurobond) on EU level wont help very much. !New Normal is lower yield avg across assets (public) & economic growth average p/a of abt 1.2-1.4% Add demographic bubble/ageing population = less consumerism, less disposable income/discretionary spending on aggregate, Piketty (book) removed technology as growth multiplier in some chapters & then you really come to <2% p/a long-run growth predictions for EU/western world. <2% growth p/a at >90% debt2gdp u have a problem! == Rechtsruck &or Anti-Austerity. Political tail-risk!
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august 2015 by asterisk2a
Krise ǀ Weimar reloaded — der Freitag
Das Land befindet sich schon mitten in der Depression und schuld daran sind hohe Lohnkosten und üppige Sozialpolitik. Helfen können dagegen nur Lohn-, Preis- und Budgetkürzungen. Was sich liest wie eine Mainstream-Diagnose des heutigen Europas, ist tatsächlich der Inhalt eines Artikels aus dem März 1929. Er erschien im Deutschen Volkswirt, einem damaligen Fachblatt der liberalen Ökonomie. Der Autor war kein Geringerer als Joseph Schumpeter. Was er vorschlug, ist später als die berüchtigte Deflationspolitik des bis Mai 1932 amtierenden Reichskanzlers Heinrich Brüning bekannt geworden. [ can solve debt overhang w austerity, >> is deflationary, stagnant balance sheet or shrinking, thus increases debt 2 gdp/asset ratio ] [...] den „Ruin Mitteleuropas“ zu verantworten.
austerity  economic  history  Weimar  Treaty  of  Versailles  deflationary  deflation  debtoverhang  Debt  Super  Cycle  Greece  Richard  Koo  Germany  Wolfgang  Schäuble  GroKo  Fiscal  Pact  Schuldenbremse  balance  sheet  recession  neoliberalism  neoliberal  sovereign  crisis  Europe  George  Osborne  UK  IMF  Weimarer  Republik  Troika  Umschuldung  jubilee  restructuring  PIGS  PIIGS  PIIGSFB  European  Union  Eurogroup  technocrat  John  Maynard  Keynes  carmenreinhart  KennethRogoff  Thomas  Piketty  Yanis  Varoufakis  Joseph  Stiglitz  Paul  Krugman  Weimar  Republic  European 
august 2015 by asterisk2a
Europe's economic challenge not just about Greece - BBC News
IMF, Christine Lagarde, said: "I remain firmly of the view that Greece's debt has become unsustainable." [...] Greek debt will reach 201% of GDP some time next year. [...] It is unlikely a portion of the debt will be written off but there may well be an agreement to extend current loans and to lower the rates of interest. [...] [ the overall health of Europe as a whole and its individual parts in question] [...] the eurozone economy splutters. There is a recovery - the eurozone is growing at an annual rate of 1.3% - but it is patchy. In the [Q2'15] France and Italy, which account for 40% of the eurozone economy, flat-lined. Italy which had only recently emerged from recession fell back, managing growth of just 0.2%. [...] [ ECB: on balance, outlook remains on the downside ] The eurozone economy is still smaller than it was in 2008. [...] The fundamental challenges to the European economy remain - how to innovate [...] modernise [...] [ EU project living up to its potential ]
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august 2015 by asterisk2a
Mark Blyth Mackenzie Lecture 2015 – Austerity and the Politics of Money - YouTube
too big to bail, thus stick it to the countries individually. // Draghi Put - LTRO, LTRO 2, ELA, what ever it takes, TLTRO, // 5trn (40% of EU GDP) put into banks since the crisis (as of 2013). // NPL (via stress test) - 1.22trn in NPL in EU banking system as of 2013. // TINA - there is no alternative (same with UK budget2015) - bbc.in/1N3hrdu &! Angela Merkel "Alternativlos" // bailed out the assets (income for banks via mortgages, loans, businesses loans and credit lines, insurance policies, 401ks, pension fund contributions) of the top 20-30% of the income distribution. austerity is put on the bottom 70-20% of the income distribution. a bailout not just of the banks, the system, but also the top 20-30%, the Super Rich, 1%, the Establishment, the Privileged, the babyboomers, the pensioners. ... and add QE, you really reflate/bail out the 1% ... 10% ... 20%, their pensions, investments, and so forth. // this was and still is a Class specific Put Option for those with assets!
Mark  Blyth  austerity  bailout  book  GFC  ECB  toobigtofail  TBTF  bank  bailout  too  big  to  bail  sovereign  debt  crisis  PIIGSFB  zombie  banks  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  financial  repression  economic  history  dogma  ideology  crony  capitalism  European  Union  Troika  Eurogroup  NPL  reflate  reflation  unknown  unkown  unintended  consequences  deregulation  self-regulation  regulation  regulators  complexity  oversight  investment  banking  shadow  banking  banking  crisis  financial  literacy  financial  market  financial  crisis  Wolfgang  Schäuble  MarioDraghi  equity  bubble  asset  allocation  distortion  inflation  targeting  inflation  expectation  European  Commission  European  Parliament  Angela  Merkel  GroKo  lenderoflastresort  Germany  banking  EuroFin  IMF  OECD  academia  academics  M3  monetary  policy  monetary  transmission  mechanism  Richard  Koo  debtoverhang  deleveraging  balance  sheet  recession  fiscal  stimulus  fiscal  policy  Pact  Schuldenbremse  spin  doctor  PR  manufactured  consent  propaganda  Lügenpresse  populism  corporate  media  deflationary  deflation  secular  stagnation  debt  monetisation  debt  monetization  Super  Cycle  budget2015  George  Osborne  Tories  Conservative  Party  Generationengerechtigkeit  fairness  No  bubble  asset  bubble  R 
july 2015 by asterisk2a
Richard Koo: "Out of the Balance Sheet Recession and into QE 'Trap'" - YouTube
Released new book end of 2014. // Banks unable to lend money 2 unwilling (eligible) customers. Money remains on the private banks (&Central Banks in form of bonds) balance sheets/books & mostly allocated towards parking it overnight @Central Banks deposit facility (thus ECB put up a deposit levy, late into the game) or liquid fairly un(der)productive investment classes like gov bonds. // Companies (& people ie 4 education/housing) borrowing & investing (into the future, that is uncertain, unknown, deflationary)!? // 19:30 Even Abenomics is not working. Bc trauma towards Debt! behavioural economics: experience of debt servitude on less income, additional uncertainty & distrust! // Lowering corporate tax rate (like George Osborne) does not help. // Persistent low inflation expectations. // Taper extremely difficult: 2.5trn excess in long bonds. Unknown territory. Possibly future higher interest rates than fnd economic growth does warrant - adding to output gap & new normal.
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july 2015 by asterisk2a
Staatsverschuldung als Problem der Generationengerechtigkeit | Lars P. Feld | SWR Tele-Akademie - YouTube
henry paulson and tim geithner said they are in a moral hazard. put it the way to either nationalise (aka the end of American Dream, Failure part of capitalism) or bailout (gov loans and co like TARP). Rather the moral hazard was to either put current and future unborn generation in debt servitude they had nothing to do with and keep criminals private with all its benefits. Or really give a warning shot a privatise banks and end the profligacy of crony capitalism and Wall Streets shareholder value creation only and profit maximisation - without consequences. // and Europe looks towards USA and did the same; made banks whole again (because they were really - TBTF - and would pushed some EU countries into Great Depression/Insolvency. especially France & Belgium where bank liabilities were too big for public balance sheet) and took some of the debt onto its public balance sheet (and gave bailout loans) to be served by current & future unborn generation.
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july 2015 by asterisk2a
Who Will Pay? Austerity vs. Bailouts | Greece, Europe and The Euro! - YouTube
have to be held accountable >> bankers! but have not, just transfered private debt/losses onto public balance sheet which no has to paid down by the weakest of society and collectively by less public investment for the future (output gap/lower productivity) ie into infrastructure and education // stealing from the young // policy making by comfort and trinkets - George Osborne // moral hazard - the options they choose - paulson geithner summers and co made the tbtf and jail even worse! instead should have chosen partial privatization // sold off our future for keeping the gangsters "private" - get out of jail free card for what reason? because it would be not American? American means to be WALL STREET crony capitalistic greed with tax evasion and lobbying to the tunes of millions - your judge - that judges on you whether you get a free out of jail card?! // who will suffer in the end? the public and the weakest of society and unborn! period. long-term. // &! youtu.be/EmHYeGI0b_U
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july 2015 by asterisk2a
Germany won’t spare Greek pain – it has an interest in breaking us | Yanis Varoufakis | Comment is free | The Guardian
Debt restructuring has always been our aim in negotiations – but for some eurozone leaders Grexit is the goal [...] To frame the cynical transfer of irretrievable private losses on to the shoulders of taxpayers as an exercise in “tough love”, record austerity was imposed on Greece, whose national income, in turn – from which new and old debts had to be repaid – diminished by more than a quarter. It takes the mathematical expertise of a smart eight-year-old to know that this process could not end well. [...] In my first week as minister for finance I was visited by Jeroen Dijsselbloem, president of the Eurogroup (the eurozone finance ministers), who put a stark choice to me: accept the bailout’s “logic” and drop any demands for debt restructuring or your loan agreement will “crash” – the unsaid repercussion being that Greece’s banks would be boarded up. [...] Wolfgang Schäuble, decided that Grexit’s costs were a worthwhile “investment” as a way of disciplining France et al,
Yanis  Varoufakis  debt  restructuring  debt  jubilee  Super  Cycle  sustainable  sustainability  Great  Depression  Greece  Grexit  lost  decade  lost  generation  PIGS  Troika  Germany  France  IMF  Angela  Merkel  ChristineLagarde  European  History  Wolfgang  Schäuble  Thomas  Piketty  ECB  MarioDraghi  Leadership  European  Union  Insolvenzverschleppung  insolvent  insolvency  austerity  economic  policy  folly  policy  error  Career  Politicians  No  Representation  dogma  ideology  propaganda  Lügenpresse  bailout  zombie  banks  populism  manufactured  consent  media  conglomerate  corporate  state  Jeroen  Dijsselbloem  Jean-Claude  Juncker  Eurogroup  EFSF  ELA  EuropeanSystemicRiskBoard  systemicrisk  toobigtofail  TBTF  too  big  to  jail  referendum  PIIGSFB  PIIGS  FrancoisHollande  academia  academic  academics  carmenreinhart  kennethlewis  Alexis  Tsipras  Syriza  Wall  Street  crony  capitalism  Podemos  Indignants  Indignados  occupywallstreet  fairness  GFC  recovery  economic  model  trickle-down  economics  economic-thought  shared  economic  interest  profit  maximisation  shareholder  value  economists  economic  damage  short-term  thinking  short-term  view 
july 2015 by asterisk2a
Greek debt crisis: What next for the European Union dream? - BBC News
In a European Union that's currently dominated by eye-popping debt figures, last-minute debt talks and sharp-tongued insults, some people are wondering what happened to the idealism behind the European project: the "European idea"? // &! Greece debt crisis: Eurozone decision down to politics - http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/blogs-eu-33429622 // agglomeration of the symptoms and outcomes of our time have pushed weak career politicans in a corner where they can't admit a big academic/intellectual/economic mistake and at least re-orientate. thus keeping the destructive path they are on. because their national (political) interest (and that of their constituency) is them more important (their status quo career) than the greater good and stable integrated (& solidarity) future of Europe is so needs in an even more unstable and uncertain and competitive future. It all started when they said it was "Alternativlos" to bailout banks and transfer the debt (risk) on public balance sheet.
Grexit  PIGS  European  History  European  Union  Angela  Merkel  Jean-Claude  Juncker  ECB  MarioDraghi  Germany  France  FrancoisHollande  Leadership  Career  Politicians  No  Representation  Wolfgang  Schäuble  compromise  political  error  political  folly  political  economy  political  theory  Syriza  Alexis  Tsipras  Yanis  Varoufakis  austerity  dogma  ideology  IMF  ChristineLagarde  humility  humble  character  economic  Fiscal  Pact  Schuldenbremse  Gesellschaft  society  symptom  bailout  PIIGS  zombie  banks  PIIGSFB  GFC  recovery  2015  UK  neoliberal  neoliberalism  crony  capitalism  TBTF  toobigtofail  too  big  to  jail  Wall  Street  liberal  economic  reform  referendum  democracy 
july 2015 by asterisk2a
Greek referendum no vote signals huge challenge to eurozone leaders | Business | The Guardian
It is not clear which view will prevail. The EU mainstream hoped for a yes vote, not only because it would have represented democratic assent to the euro and acceptance of austerity, but also because the Tsipras government would have come under strong pressure to stand down. Negotiations between the two sides have gone nowhere for five months and have become particularly rancorous in the past month as bailout and debt repayment deadlines came and went, // Greece and its people are not too big to fail and but banks it owed money to in Europe (mainly Germany and France) were too big to fail - and to bail out people an inconvenience and nuisance.
mainstream  media  stakeholder  media  conglomerate  propaganda  manufactured  consent  dogma  ideology  austerity  economic  history  Career  Politicians  No  Representation  Lügenpresse  Grexit  zombie  banks  bailout  TBTF  too  big  to  jail  toobigtofail  GFC  PIGS  PIIGS  PIIGSFB  democracy  Greece 
july 2015 by asterisk2a
What The ECB's "Unprecedented" Forward Guidance Means | Zero Hedge
Europe struck in credit crisis - liquidity trap. & other problems - Politics / Brussels - one to mention. >> "The move clearly marks an innovative step in the ECB's communication and policy strategy for a bank that previously had always refused to pre-commit on interest rates." >> Problem is - ECB will have it hard to maneuver out of the measures, end schemes, etc. "Monetary Policy is no Panacea." Ben Bernanke. + >> http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-07-04/diminishing-effects-qe-programs
unemployment  monetary  policy  modern  monetary  theory  Europe  M3  zombie  banks  monetary  transmission  mechanism  banking  crisis  Structural  Impediments  creditcrisis  QE  PIGS  debt  monetisation  imbalance  political  error  creditcrunch  forward  guidance  trustagent  austerity  Taper  greatdepression  zombie  consumer  deleveraging  debt  monetization  balance  sheet  recession  Politics  PIIGSFB  GFC  MarioDraghi  output-gap  European  Commission  Euro  liquidity-trap  Troika  ECB  monetary  system  political  folly  bank  crisis  greatrecession  debtoverhang  OMT  NIRP  communication  trust  economic  history  Super  Cycle  confidence  sovereign  debt  crisis  unconventional  monetary  policy  escape  velocity  ZIRP  PIIGS  Germany 
july 2013 by asterisk2a
Wolfgang Münchau: Das Billionengrab - SPIEGEL ONLINE
ESM  PIIGSFB  GFC  Europe  zombie  banks  capital  banking  union  banking  crisis  political  folly  bank  crisis  creditcrisis  greatrecession  lostdecade  policy  error  policy  folly  Recapitalisation  debtoverhang  2013  PIGS  creditcrunch  political  error  sovereign  debt  crisis  Recapitalization  PIIGS  greatdepression  deleveraging  balance  sheet  recession 
june 2013 by asterisk2a
Hilfe für Finanzkonzerne: Deutschland bremst Bankenunion aus - SPIEGEL ONLINE
Gerade wegen der Probleme im Bankensektor würden die geldpolitischen Impulse nicht mehr wirken. "Die EZB wird auf Dauer nicht erfolgreich sein können, wenn wir den Bankensektor nicht grundlegend reformieren",
ESM  angelamerkel  monetary  policy  PIIGSFB  monetary  theory  MarioDraghi  Europe  unintended  consequences  zombie  banks  monetary  transmission  mechanism  banking  union  banking  crisis  ECB  monetary  system  political  folly  bank  crisis  Recapitalisation  debtoverhang  2013  Wolfgang  Schäuble  NPL  PIGS  debt  monetisation  creditcrunch  political  error  monetarism  sovereign  debt  crisis  Recapitalization  PIIGS  deleveraging  Germany  debt  monetization  balance  sheet  recession 
june 2013 by asterisk2a
Weltarbeitsmarktbericht der ILO: Uno warnt vor sozialen Unruhen - SPIEGEL ONLINE
unemployment  2013  PIIGSFB  GFC  Debt  Super  Cycle  human  tragedy  PIGS  sovereign  crisis  youth  unemployment  austerity  PIIGS  greatdepression  Uno  greatrecession  IMF 
june 2013 by asterisk2a
Wolfgang Münchau: EU-Pläne zum Sparkurs helfen nicht - SPIEGEL ONLINE
Der EU-Plan zur Aufweichung des Sparkurses ist weder politisch, rechtlich noch moralisch akzeptabel - er löst nicht einmal das Problem der Krise. Die neuen Taschenspielertricks aus Brüssel sind der Höhepunkt der Verlogenheit. [...] Die Angst geht um in Brüssel. Nach zwei Jahren harter internationaler Kritik gegen den wirtschaftspolitischen Sparkurs knickt die EU-Kommission jetzt ein. Sie will von der Austerität abweichen und auf Wachstum setzen.
unemployment  PIIGSFB  GFC  Europe  accounting  zombie  banks  Troika  banking  crisis  bank  crisis  greatrecession  debtoverhang  2013  economic  history  Debt  Super  Cycle  PIGS  budget  deficit  sovereign  crisis  youth  unemployment  austerity  PIIGS  greatdepression  zombie  consumer  deleveraging  Germany  IMF  balance  sheet  recession 
may 2013 by asterisk2a
The Must Read: Europe Like Japan, ...
economic  history  2012  Politics  liberal  economic  reform  France  PIIGSFB  PIIGS  lostdecade  Japan  sovereign  debt  crisis  Europe  policy  error  policy  folly 
december 2012 by asterisk2a
Euro-Krise: Moody's senkt Rating für französische Staatsanleihen - SPIEGEL ONLINE
Rückschlag im Kampf gegen die Schuldenkrise in Europa: Frankreich besitzt bei Moody's keine Top-Bonität mehr. Die Ratingagentur stuft die Kreditwürdigkeit des Euro-Landes um eine Note von AAA auf AA1 ab. Der Ausblick bleibt negativ.

[...]

Moody's begründete den Schritt damit, dass Frankreichs langfristige wirtschaftliche Wachstumsaussichten sich eingetrübt hätten. Das Land habe an Wettbewerbsfähigkeit eingebüßt, erklärte die Ratingagentur in Frankfurt. Der finanzielle Ausblick sei unsicher. Es sei auch immer weniger berechenbar, wie Frankreich künftige Schocks in der Euro-Zone verkrafte.
PIIGSFB  austerity  FrancoisHollande  liberal  economic  reform  greatrecession  Europe  sovereign  debt  crisis  2012  creditrating  France 
november 2012 by asterisk2a
France and the euro: The time-bomb at the heart of Europe | The Economist
THE threat of the euro’s collapse has abated for the moment, but putting the single currency right will involve years of pain. The pressure for reform and budget cuts is fiercest in Greece, Portugal, Spain and Italy, which all saw mass strikes and clashes with police this week (see article). But ahead looms a bigger problem that could dwarf any of these: France.

[Its] economy looks increasingly vulnerable as well.

http://www.economist.com/news/special-report/21566233-france-slowly-heading-towards-crisis-says-john-peet-can-country-be-reformed

As our special report in this issue explains, France still has many strengths, but its weaknesses have been laid bare by the euro crisis. For years it has been losing competitiveness to Germany and the trend has accelerated as the Germans have cut costs and pushed through big reforms. Without the option of currency devaluation, France has resorted to public spending and debt.

[...] [Yet,] Mr Hollande still seems half-hearted.
IMF  Spain  economic  history  economics  Italy  unemployment  FrancoisHollande  Politics  liberal  economic  reform  GFC  competitiveness  greatrecession  Euro  Europe  austerity  sovereign  debt  crisis  PIIGSFB  PIIGS 
november 2012 by asterisk2a
France Unveils A 'Growth-Killer' Budget For 2013 | ZeroHedge
France is turning into a Italy/Spain.
liberal  economic  reform  Europe  sovereign  debt  crisis  budget  deficit  2012  FrancoisHollande  austerity  PIIGSFB  PIIGS  France 
october 2012 by asterisk2a
All the bail-out systems under the sun cannot make the eurozone work - Telegraph
Their costs are 30-40pc out of line with Germany's. It is a fantasy to believe that such a gap can be closed by "reform". Whereas money values can move up with dazzling speed, the real economy can be improved only slowly.
Consequently, when nominal values get out of line, the problem can only be solved by a price or exchange rate adjustment. Theoretically, this could be through internal deflation but that would increase the real value of debt and depress aggregate demand still more. Deflation is the road to catastrophe.

Throwing yet more money at the vulnerable countries and calling this by a fancy name is not an answer. Just as with the Gold Standard and with Bretton Woods, the system has to break.

There will be more summits and bail-outs, more fudge and mudge, and more money poured into a black hole. But the end is approaching inexorably.

Roger Bootle is managing director of Capital Economics.
bailout  2012  Grexit  default  scenario  default  economic  history  brettonwoods  goldstandard  sovereign  debt  crisis  Europe  EMU  Cyprus  PIIGSFB  PIIGS 
june 2012 by asterisk2a
BIS Official Warns of Central-Bank Overreach - WSJ.com
BIS warns of unintended consequences of more unorthodox easing measures as politicians agree to not agree bc of their principles. Not able to acknowledge that they/we sit all in the same boat.

***

The unconventional measures introduced by many central banks in response to financial turmoil could create other problems if carried out for too long, the general manager of the Bank for International Settlements said Sunday.

“A worry is that monetary policy would be pressured to do still more because not enough action has been taken in other areas… “Fiscal adjustment, the repair of banks’ balance sheets and other reforms cannot be put off in the hope of better times,” Mr. Caruana said. “Relying only on central bankers but failing to act on other fronts would ultimately damage confidence and increase the risks to macroeconomic and financial stability.”

"These emergency measures could have undesirable side effects if continued for too long,"
centralbanks  India  Brazil  BRIC  australia  Canada  BoC  bubbles  PBoC  China  UK  PIIGSFB  PIIGS  USA  sovereign  debt  crisis  quantitative-easing  QE  operationtwist  ZIRP  unintended  consequences  BoJ  ECB  BoE  Fed  policy-makers  policy  folly  policy  error  politics  trust  trustagent  monetary  theory  System  monetary  policy  BIS 
june 2012 by asterisk2a
The Seeds of the EU’s Crisis Were Sown 60 Years Ago - Bloomberg
The overriding goal for a Europe in ruins after 1945 was to create a secure zone of peace and prosperity. Reconciliation between France and Germany, formerly bitter enemies and sure to be the dominant economic entities in a new Europe, was vital. As a matter of the highest priority, the two countries formed a close alliance, and began building a new united Europe around it. They started modestly in 1951 with the European Coal and Steel Community, but entertained bigger ambitions at the outset. As early as 1957, the Treaty of Rome enshrined the notion of “ever closer union.” This became the organizing principle for Europe’s subsequent evolution.
Germany  history  2012  PIIGSFB  PIIGS  sovereign  debt  crisis  europeanunion  Europe 
may 2012 by asterisk2a
Consequences of a Greek eurozone exit - FT.com
Infographic, audio, about ramifications of Greek exit (Grexit) from European Monetary Union (EMU)

But, as always, the devil is in the details.
EMU  Europe  ECB  PIIGSFB  PIIGS  2012  sovereign  debt  crisis  Grexit  Greece 
may 2012 by asterisk2a
Euro-Krise: Sparpolitik verstärkt die Schuldenkrise in Griechenland - SPIEGEL ONLINE
Was heute der Euro für Griechenland, war für Weimar die starre Bindung der Reichsmark ans Gold.

-

Politicians making a huge error. Not letting Greece exit.
austerity  policy  folly  policy  error  Europe  Germany  angelamerkel  politics  political  economy  economic-thought  economic  history  greatrecession  GFC  2012  sovereign  debt  crisis  PIIGSFB  PIIGS  Grecce 
may 2012 by asterisk2a
Daily chart: Give us austerity, but not yet | The Economist
in good times as in bad, governments will find reasons to spend more than they receive in revenue.

...Germany, demanding austerity from PIIGS ... is one that does it as well, spend more than it take in in revenue (on a national level).
austerity  angelamerkel  Germany  PIIGSFB  PIIGS  Europe  politicalscience  political  economy  economic  history  economic-thought  election2012  politics  sovereign  debt  crisis  government  government  spending  governance 
may 2012 by asterisk2a
Those Revolting Europeans - NYTimes.com
It was actually kind of funny to see the apostles of orthodoxy trying to portray the cautious, mild-mannered François Hollande as a figure of menace. He is “rather dangerous,” declared The Economist, which observed that he “genuinely believes in the need to create a fairer society.” Quelle horreur!

What is true is that Mr. Hollande’s victory means the end of “Merkozy,” the Franco-German axis that has enforced the austerity regime of the past two years. This would be a “dangerous” development if that strategy were working, or even had a reasonable chance of working. But it isn’t and doesn’t; it’s time to move on. Europe’s voters, it turns out, are wiser than the Continent’s best and brightest.

What’s wrong with the prescription of spending cuts as the remedy for Europe’s ills? One answer is that the confidence fairy doesn’t exist — that is, claims that slashing government spending would somehow encourage consumers and businesses to spend more have been overwhelmingly refuted ...
economic-thought  2012  debt  bubble  debtoverhang  sovereign  debt  crisis  ECB  politics  election2012  PIIGSFB  PIIGS  austerity  sarkozy  angelamerkel  FrancoisHollande  paulkrugman 
may 2012 by asterisk2a
How Much Bigger Can TARGET2 Imbalances Grow? Goldman Answers: "A Lot" | ZeroHedge
"how much more can the TARGET2 imbalances increase?" The scientific and, non-scientific answer, comes from Goldman Sachs: "a lot."

Uh, of course we are talking about a euro breakdup: if Goldman does not understand this, they need to plant at least another head of a central bank in addition to the ECB: namely the Bundesbank. Because the question is just what the bill to the German taxpayers will be when everything falls apart, up to and including the euro. And that question Goldman was already kind enough to answer: "a lot"
2012  bundesbank  ECB  Germany  PIIGSFB  PIIGS  europe  sovereign  debt  crisis  target2-system 
april 2012 by asterisk2a
Europe's New Entente Discordiale: The Other French Connection | ZeroHedge
France is no longer any form of economic supporter or ally of Germany, but only of the PIIGSB or “Garlic Belt”.
Not only the Socialists, but close to virtually everybody in France supports economically destructive and dysfunctional policies and there is no intention or tradition to adapt to their lacking in competitiveness.
Instead, demand stimulation through increased deficits and monetary debasement.
The cultural background of this is that the French react to economic decline with irrational and destructive political aggression and revolts (expropriation of the rich, protectionism, severe public sector strikes, etc) rather than in an adaptive manner (the poverty in England and the US has never led to serious political revolt, to common knowledge).

The idea that somehow, pragmatic voices will stop this political groundswell is entirely misplaced: this destructive belief set has started to run its course.
unintended  consequences  policy  folly  policy  error  Europe  society  culture  democracy  politics  angelamerkel  sarkozy  FrancoisHollande  election2012  France  sovereign  debt  crisis  PIIGSFB  PIIGS 
april 2012 by asterisk2a

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