asterisk2a + obr   13

Budget 2017: Stagnant earnings forecast 'astonishing' - BBC News
real wages in aggregate to continue to stagnate fall eaten up by inflation. Does NOT help serving current debt levels. // The prediction that average UK earnings in 2022 could still be less than in 2008 is "astonishing", according to an independent economic think tank. // 'Adair Turner: neoliberalism not raising all boats'
secular  stagnation  productivity  inflation  Brexit  budget2017  paysqueeze  IFS  ONS  OBR  Philip  Hammond  skill  gap  output  wage  income  growth  disposable  discretionary  spending  debt  BOE  Mark  Carney  underinvestment  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  education  policy  college  GDP  Capitalism  GFC  recovery  neoliberal  neoliberalism  globalisation  globalization 
november 2017 by asterisk2a
Revolutionary politics in the UK
// yanis is liberal marxist // &! Will John McDonnell's fiscal rules work for Labour? Paul Mason Vs John Rentoul - youtu.be/0EISho5eSUc - OBR econometrics dictated by Treasury, George Osborne w wonky multipliers that don't fit w IMF models. IMF calls for fiscal stimulus! since late 2015 because China's credit bubble popped and global economy started to head south.
Yanis  Varoufakis  Paul  Mason  Labour  Party  Jeremy  Corbyn  Bernie  Sanders  Marxism  democracy  No  Representation  Super  Rich  1%  oligarchy  plutocracy  tax  evasion  tax  amnesty  tax  avoidance  Soziale  Marktwirtschaft  fairness  Social  Justice  economic  bank  bailout  GFC  austerity  Generationengerechtigkeit  revolving  door  lobby  Greed  crony  capitalism  shareholder  capitalism  profit  maximisation  profit  maximization  shareholder  value  Wall  Street  Main  Street  squeezed  middle  class  working  poor  Precariat  poverty  trap  economic  history  UK  globalisation  globalization  global  economy  self-regulation  deregulation  regulation  regulators  secular  stagnation  trickle-down  economics  free  market  exploitation  liberal  economic  reform  self-employment  job  security  job  insecurity  Zero  Hour  Contract  antitrust  winner  take  all  gini  coefficient  inequality  deprivation  poverty  John  McDonnell  austerity  aggregate  demand  Richard  Koo  Joseph  Stiglitz  Schuldenbremse  Fiscal  Pact  economic  history  neoliberal  neoliberalism  OBR  Chicago  School  neoclassical  economics  infrastructure  investment  liquidity  trap 
april 2016 by asterisk2a
The Week Ahead: the return of the nasty party and a good week for Brexit
David Cameron and George Osborne wanted to cut even more! //&! Nicky Morgan's embarrassing interview over Tory cuts to disabled welfare - youtu.be/hjk06tjx_xQ //&! Jeremy Corbyn - youtu.be/Ain-IP4pHCk //&! IFS: cutting disability benefits to fund tax cuts is a political choice - youtu.be/xVBf9dSa9Mw //&! MANIFESTO Election Campaign Promises - Tories hoist by their own petard over disability cuts - youtu.be/N8VijFKLQek //&! also closed Independent Living Fund - youtu.be/nurjzK5VPAI //& "The electorate don't mind. Those who vote aren't affected." *George Osborne - youtu.be/N8VijFKLQek - WCA to bring down bill by kicking people off was a pipedream & Universal Credit is a real cut in benefits. //&! Nicky Morgan's nightmare defending Osborne's nasty budget - youtu.be/Y9YNcQF4t8I - 12bn cuts were promised in Manifesto 2015. 4.4 tried through PIP. youtu.be/5-3Bp7qzj4Y (pre-election) //& cutting corporation tax (& capital gains tax) - youtu.be/gZ6qNHLnbs0 &! Analysis - youtu.be/v-qmvI9s3pE
Iain  Duncan  Smith  Brexit  Tories  Conservative  Party  DWP  austerity  George  Osborne  David  Cameron  Toff  dogma  ideology  Establishment  general  election  2020  economic  history  recovery  tax  credit  ILA  PIP  Universal  Budget2016  Westminster  Whitehall  ESA  tax  cut  welfare  reform  welfare  state  social  safety  net  Disabled  vulnerable  JSA  sanctions  PR  spin  doctor  Positioning  manufactured  consent  bank  bailout  budget  deficit  corporate  tax  rate  capital  gains  tax  Boris  Johnson  Gini  coefficient  social  mobility  income  mobility  inequality  child  poverty  fuel  poverty  Generationengerechtigkeit  fairness  poverty  trap  education  policy  Academy  Nicky  Morgan  Michael  Gove  Ofsted  nasty  inheritance  tax  Manifesto  general  election  2015  IFS  OBR  Fiscal  Pact  Schuldenbremse  triple-lock  pension  babyboomers  NHS  constituency  Party  Funding  property  bubble  constituency  babyboomers  pension  obligation  WCA  Foodbank 
april 2016 by asterisk2a
Budget 2016: Four key numbers - BBC Newsnight
weaker outlook for income tax receipts & economy/global economy >> OBR has done 'no projections' on impact of Brexit: Robert Chote - BBC Newsnight - youtu.be/A0jvIUKTU1U //&! Budget 2016: Evan Davis grills Sajid Javid on the numbers - BBC Newsnight - youtu.be/L0TBTbfNgCw - "WE HAD THE BIGGEST BANK BAILOUT" //&! NICKY MORGAN ON TORY WELFARE ROW - BBC Newsnight - youtu.be/IC_Yhggk62o
Budget2016  OBR  secular  stagnation  income  tax  receipts  productivity  gap  recovery  economic  history  Richard  Koo  Brexit  Schuldenbremse  Fiscal  Pact  general  election  2020  austerity  underinvestment  business  confidence  job  creation  Service  Sector  Jobs  low  pay  low  income  working  poor  tax  credit  Zero  Hour  Contract  wage  stagnation  squeezed  middle  class  self-employment  part-time  Contractor  Zero  Hour  Contract  recovery  economic  history  UK  fairness  Generationengerechtigkeit  pension  obligation  triple-lock  pension  bank  bailout  trickle-down  economics  dogma  ideology  Richard  Koo  Privatisation  free  market  demographic  bubble  poverty  child  poverty  food  poverty  ESA  Disabled  vulnerable  DLA  PIP  DWP  Iain  Duncan  Smith  sanctions  JSA  social  housing  affordable  housing  Crisis  property  bubble  welfare  state  welfare  reform  Universal  housing  benefit  social  safety  net 
march 2016 by asterisk2a
Budget 2016: the productivity and prosperity puzzle
It wasn't so much "here's a rabbit from the hat" but more: "look over there - a squirrel!" [...] [Productivity] turned out disappointingly again. And that's knocked back the growth estimates for the economy, as well as for pay, for tax revenue, and for company profits over the rest of the decade.
Britain's not alone in that. But keeping company with the USA on such numbers is not that reassuring. [...] And as that is the main, long-term driver of real pay, it means Britain's standard of living will improve from the recession, but at only two thirds of the rate we've come to expect. [ Recovery ] average year saw only 0.1% per year.
budget2016  OBR  forecast  secular  stagnation  austerity  George  Osborne  Brexit  general  election  2020  Tories  nasty  party  Conservative  Positioning  constituency  Funding  Toff  Career  Politicians  Establishment  Privileged  PIP  tax  code  HMRC  tax  evasion  tax  avoidance  industrial  policy  productivity  gap  productivity  output  gap  income  tax  receipts  job  creation  Service  Sector  Jobs  working  poor  tax  credit  low  income  working  tax  credit  low  pay  wage  stagnation  squeezed  middle  class  self-employment  part-time  Contractor  Zero  Hour  Contract  recovery  economic  history  UK 
march 2016 by asterisk2a
Budget 2016: George Osborne's political balancing act
Like Sherlock Holmes, we must look in this Budget for the dogs that do not bark. Four years out from a general election, this is the time in the political cycle when chancellors can take unpopular decisions. A moment, perhaps, for a big reform to our pensions or taxation. Yet the mood music emerging from the Treasury is distinctly adagio. [...] Genuinely radical plans to overhaul pension tax relief have been put on hold for fear of upsetting middle and higher earners. Proposals to cut the 45p top rate of tax are said to have gone the same way. [...] [OBR] is expected to say that the British economy is smaller than the watchdog had expected it would be when it made that prediction. As such, the Treasury would get less than it had expected in tax revenues.
budget2016  George  Osborne  Brexit  general  election  2020  austerity  Career  Politicians  Tories  nasty  party  Boris  Johnson  Conservative  OBR  secular  stagnation  HMRC  income  tax  receipts  Job  Creation  Service  Sector  Jobs  working  poor  low  pay  low  income  squeezed  middle  class  savings  rate  tax  credit 
march 2016 by asterisk2a
Budget 2016: Osborne's economic fitness regime - BBC News
[2015] 80% OF ECONOMY CONSUMER SPENDING! - The economy has enjoyed what Andrew Goodwin of Oxford Economics describes as a "sugar rush" -the equivalent of a big tax cut - or 'fiscal stimulus' - through lower petrol prices. The economy grew by 2.2% last year; 80% of that growth was down to consumer spending. "That [growth] strikes us as some distance below par given the tailwinds we have had," Mr Goodwin says. And after the sugar rush comes the sugar crash: growth is likely to be revised down in the years to come because of global economic weakness.
budget2016  budget2015  George  Osborne  policy  folly  policy  error  zombie  consumer  consumer  debt  household  debt  credit  card  debt  car  loan  student  debt  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  mortgage  rates  mortgage  market  property  bubble  Oil  price  commodity  prices  aggregate  demand  distortion  underinvestment  IFS  OBR  income  tax  receipts  HMRC  job  creation  Service  Sector  Jobs  working  poor  low  income  low  pay  squeezed  middle  class  Consumerism  Industrial 
march 2016 by asterisk2a
Adam Posen: What Japan and the UK Demonstrate about Macroeconomic Stimulus - YouTube
Confidence Fairy - Paul Krugman. (sov debt crisis) only applicable if you don't have a central bank. like Greece. that can do QE as much as you need to stabilise monetary system. ie stop deleveraging, only serving debt. meaning deflation. // different QE, diversity. shift risk appetite to more riskier debt. ... // fiscal activism can't overcome austerity ... // UK has it work because it doesn't have the manufacturing base. but its population is growing, not shrinking. but job creation - multiplier to economy is 1 or lower because of mostly service sector job creation which lot need to access welfare state through tax credits. // min 11. Gordon Brown and Alistair Darling did lots right! GPB depreciation. budget deficit growth. But imports stayed high!!! current account deficit and trade deficit. Austerity undermines growth and BOE policy! cut you future and investment (4-1 ration). UK got no credibility bonus from bond vigilantes, no FDI inflows.
Abenomics  economic  history  secular  stagnation  UK  austerity  Japan  BOE  BOJ  Mark  Carney  deflationary  deflation  demographic  bubble  ageing  population  migration  immigration  Sozialpolitik  Integrationspolitik  Paul  Krugman  JGB  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  liquidity  trap  balance  sheet  recession  Richard  Koo  deleveraging  ECB  TLTRO  LTRO  debt  monetisation  debt  monetization  monetary  policy  monetary  transmission  mechanism  monetary  stimulus  monetary  theory  unconventional  monetary  policy  monetary  system  financial  repression  distortion  speculative  bubbles  creditrating  creditrisk  junk  bond  NPL  credit  bubble  recovery  George  Osborne  Fiscal  Pact  Schuldenbremse  Super  Cycle  sovereign  debt  crisis  debtoverhang  currency-war  currency  debasement  currency  war  current  account  deficit  trade  deficit  IMF  OBR  foreign  direct  investment  Conservative  Party  nasty  fairness  Generationengerechtigkeit  policy  folly  policy  error 
january 2016 by asterisk2a
Osborne's £23bn from the back of the sofa - BBC News
[ from 2010 forecast, deficit should be a surplus by 2016/17 or something like that ] the government's forecaster, the Office for Budget Responsibility, has increased its prognosis of how much the Treasury will raise from existing taxes (not new ones) and reduced what it thinks the chancellor will shell out in interest on its massive debts. In total the OBR thinks the national debt, the aggregate of the annual deficits, will be £23bn lower over the four years to 2020, and just because it is more optimistic about tax revenues and assorted costs. Or to put it another way, George Osborne is today £23bn better off than he thought in July, and without doing anything at all. //&! on.fb.me/1Hq17SP
OBR  UK  forecast  economic  growth  austerity  recovery  budget2015  George  Osborne  David  Cameron  macroeconomic  policy  microeconomic  policy  budget  deficit  general  election  2020  Tories  Conservative  Party  Manifesto  election  campaign  promises  general  election  2015  fiscal  policy  underinvestment  productive  investment  output  gap  productivity 
november 2015 by asterisk2a
BBC News - Watchdog contradicts Cameron on impact of austerity on growth
In a speech on the economy on Thursday, the prime minister said the independent watchdog had made it "absolutely clear" that spending cuts and tax rises were not responsible for the weak economy. But the OBR said it had been arguing for years that this was an issue. Labour said it was an "embarrassing rebuke" for the prime minister.
debtoverhang  OBR  2013  Politics  communication  GFC  lostgeneration  economic  history  UK  stagnation  austerity  davidcameron  greatdepression  deleveraging  GeorgeOsborne  lostdecade  greatrecession  balance  sheet  recession  IMF 
march 2013 by asterisk2a
Britain's economy: Into the storm | The Economist
Britain’s economy has its own home-grown problems, to which the misery on its doorstep will add. Spending power is scarce. Wage growth is running at less than half the level of inflation. Public-sector workers, who staged a large strike over the government’s pension reforms this week (see article), face a further two years of squeezed pay. Householders will be reluctant to dip deeper into their savings while their own debts are so high. That leaves Britain’s economy dependent on foreign demand. As two-fifths of exports are shipped to the euro zone, recession there will drag down Britain’s economy as well. Jobs are already being cut in London’s financial district, one of Britain’s more reliable export industries, because fees and commissions have dried up.

budget deficit was at 11.2% of GDP in 2009-10
The deficit will fall to 8.4% of GDP this fiscal year.
Britain’s triple-A credit rating seems assured
plans announced imply public-spending cuts will last until 2017
UK  2011  2012  economy  austerity  recession  lostdecade  budget  deficit  creditrating  GeorgeOsborne  OBR  output-gap  slack 
december 2011 by asterisk2a
Caught In A Trap - BLOG IU.EU
nothing new ....

The UK’s Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), a state-funded watchdog, recently produced a figure of £1.1 trillion as the net present value of public sector pension liabilities as at the end of March 2010, based upon a discount rate of 1.8 percent. That’s substantially bigger than the UK’s official net debt of £944 billion.
UK  pension  liability  debtoverhang  sovereign  debt  crisis  unfunded  GeorgeOsborne  2011  August  OBR  state 
august 2011 by asterisk2a
UK needs rich to get richer, OBR finds - Telegraph
Due to the UK's progressive tax system, the rich pay a far greater share of income tax, which is expected to raise £158bn this year – 27pc of total receipts. As a result, the OBR estimates, for every one percentage point increase in the share of total wages taken by the top 5pc of earners the state receives an extra £2.4bn.

The report demonstrated that the Government cannot afford to let personal tax receipts fall because it is already facing the loss of £29bn of revenues over the next two decades as cars become more fuel-efficient, people smoke less, and North Sea oil and gas reserves are depleted.

 the top 5pc of earners increased their share of the wage pool from 23.3pc to 26.4pc – generating an extra £7.2bn in tax. The top 5pc earn above £60,000, while the bottom 50pc are on less than £18,500.
OBR  UK  economy  taxation  inequality  statistics  income 
july 2011 by asterisk2a

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