asterisk2a + npl   103

(4081) Warum wir alle ärmer werden – Top-Ökonom erklärt die Gründe! // Mission Money - YouTube
houses are unproductive / schuldeninfusion erhaelt am leben, zombie u.a. / wer bezahlt fuer EU schuldenschnitt? / German econ illusion / banken in eu immernoch sanierungsbeduerftig /
Productivity  output  gap  secular  stagnation  economic  history  book  Robotics  AI  augmented  artificial  intelligence  GFC  recovery  debt  overhang  Austerity  household  wage  growth  inflation  deflationary  deflation  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  Japan  BOE  Fed  BOJ  ECB  income  zombie  Richard  Koo  disposable  discretionary  spending  bank  bailout  NPL 
october 2017 by asterisk2a
Mario Draghi in der Kritik: "Die Geldpolitik macht den Kapitalismus kaputt" - SPIEGEL ONLINE
Danach kamen die Übertreibungen am US-Immobilienmarkt, im Süden der Eurozone und auf den Rohstoffmärkten. Wir haben es mit einer Kette wandernder Blasen zu tun, die von der Geldpolitik getrieben werden. Die neue Blase bildet sich nie dort, wo zuvor die alte geplatzt ist. Die Regierungen reagieren auf einen Crash mit schärferen Regeln, aber die Spekulation ist ihnen immer einen Schritt voraus.
GFC  recovery  economic  history  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  ECB  BOE  Fed  USA  UK  Europe  European  Union  PIGS  secular  stagnation  household  debt  consumer  car  loan  student  credit  card  private  Austerity  IMF  OECD  Dodd-Frank  self-regulation  Regulation  regulators  FSA  BaFin  speculation  speculative  ROI  productivity  output  gap  inflation  targeting  monetary  policy  fiscal  Schuldenbremse  Pact  inequality  capital  assets  gini  Coefficient  Super  Rich  1%  10%  Plutocracy  Oligarchy  bank  bailout  zombie  NPL 
february 2017 by asterisk2a
Italy seeks €20bn for banks as Monte dei Paschi flounders - BBC News
The Italian government will seek parliamentary approval to borrow up to €20bn (£17bn) to support its fragile banking sector and potentially rescue Monte dei Paschi di Siena.
bank  bailout  Italy  ECB  NPL  non-performing  loan 
december 2016 by asterisk2a
Italy’s €360 billion referendum – POLITICO
Italy’s banking system is staggering under €360 billion in bad loans. Almost any outcome that destabilizes Italian politics would send tremors through the country’s rickety financial system. While the long-term consequences could be dramatic — in a worse case scenario perhaps leading to the collapse of the eurozone — the first victims could be efforts to rescue two of Italy’s largest lenders.
non-performing  NPL  bad  bank  Italy  Referendum  Renzi  contagion  European  Union  systemicrisk  sovereign  debt  crisis  GFC  economic  history  recession  recovery  Austerity  ECB  Banking  Supervision  MarioDraghi  Greece  Spain  Portugal  PIGS  UK  exposure  bailout  bail-in  bailin  recapitalization  recapitalisation 
november 2016 by asterisk2a
Geographies of Austerity: Mark Blyth
EU bank bailout (incl Britain) = 40% of EU GDP (incl Britain) = 5 trillion Euros. AUSTERITY FOR WHOM?! // secular stagnation - ZIRP, NIRP, QE, austerity, liquidity trap, aggregate demand short-fall = creditors paradise. their debt will not be inflated away. deflation - deflationary environment. for the next 2-3 decades. = NO DRIVE TO INVEST IN PRODUCTIVE ASSETS! = productivity gap. [...] rentier paradise. [...] = interest formation (those who have, call the shots, status quo). [...] deflationary spiral (PIGS & Germany) exporting deflation ... getting more competitive [EU has 2015 a current account surplus, bought my USA] = Dr Wolfgang Schaeuble. [...] Fall of Centrists, rise of the SNP & UKIP (reactionary) ... Trump. [...] as investment rate (ie SME/SMB lending) stays same, does not grow = DEAD. Eurobonds/Investment Fund(UK, 5bn 5 years). [...] min 55 - deflationary politics (policy for 1-10-20% of society) is one way train. DEATH. especially w austerity and low wages/secular stagnation.
austerity  Tories  Conservative  Party  nasty  general  election  2010  general  election  2015  George  Osborne  Iain  Duncan  Smith  David  Cameron  Ed  Miliband  economic  history  Mark  Blyth  book  Richard  Koo  welfare  state  welfare  reform  bank  bailout  GFC  recovery  secular  stagnation  IMF  ChristineLagarde  Salami  Tactics  aggregate  demand  aggregate  demand  short-fall  liquidity  trap  fiscal  policy  Confidence  Fairy  monetary  policy  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  Tony  Blair  Gordon  Brown  European  Union  Euro  ECB  BOJ  PIGS  Pact  Schuldenbremse  Wolfgang  Schäuble  Angela  Merkel  Career  Politicians  politician  zombie  bank  zombie  banks  banking  systemic  risk  OMT  LTRO  MarioDraghi  trichet  BOE  deflation  deflationary  productivity  productivity  gap  productive  investment  underinvestment  infrastructure  investment  infrastructure  rentier  rent-seeking  Mark  Carney  Donald  Trump  business  consumer  TLTRO  non-performing  loan  NPL  Jens  Weidmann 
july 2016 by asterisk2a
Bundesbank head Jens Weidmann - Brexit is no excuse to loosen EU budget rules
Reuters report that this puts Weidmann at odds with German Economy Minister Sigmar Gabriel, who has called for Europe's "Stability and Growth Pact" to be boosted for more growth.
-
So, we've got a politician wanting to spend more.
And the head of the Buba saying "No!"

Same old :-D //&! http://news.forexlive.com/!/germany-will-stick-to-balanced-budget-report-20160701
lost  decade  Brexit  fiscal  stimulus  fiscal  policy  BuBa  Bundesbank  ECB  MarioDraghi  trichet  Angela  Merkel  austerity  budget  deficit  Germany  Pact  Schuldenbremse  Wolfgang  Schäuble  liquidity  trap  Mark  Blyth  economic  history  inflation  targeting  inflation  expectation  inflation  expectations  recovery  Jens  Weidmann  monetary  policy  global  economy  Schwarze  Null  Exportweltmeister  Beton  Gold  Betongold  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  distortion  Richard  Koo  European  Union  zombie  bank  zombie  banks  NPL  PIGS  non-performing  loan  underinvestment 
july 2016 by asterisk2a
What Really Caused the Crisis and What to Do About It - YouTube
"There are not perfect markets, and there is no perfect planner. [...] we will never arrive at perfect solutions. [...] market will never allocate perfectly ... [...] market will always tend to lend to property and land, and less into productive means (businesses = risk of 100 loss, land or property ... you have a loss when you sell it. << China, UK ) [...] not all credit is good credit. [...] need for macroprudential policy to dampen bubbles bc rate hikes could dampen normal non-speculative area of economy. ie loan to value limits [...] interest rate setting is blunt hammer that people though is the magic wand along the line of self-regulation, free market, neoliberalism and trickle-down [...] GFC can be traced back to the 60-70's - macroecon + micro with absurd assumptions (ie rational expectations, equilibriums, no bubbles) & math & pure theoretical base (no empirical analysis ie of what banks really do ie greed) = makes job of economist as policy advisor real easy.
bank  crisis  JohnMaynardKeynes  keynes  Keynesianism  book  Richard  Koo  aggregate  demand  austerity  liquidity  trap  deleveraging  balance  sheet  recession  debtoverhang  GFC  recovery  secular  stagnation  western  world  dogma  ideology  underinvestment  productive  investment  infrastructure  investment  monetary  policy  monetary  theory  trickle-down  economics  neoliberalism  neoliberal  budget  deficit  economic  history  credit  bubble  output  gap  productivity  inflation  targeting  nominal  GDP  targeting  asset  allocation  economics  investment  banking  zombie  banks  retail  banking  financial  product  CDS  CDO  hunt  for  yield  VAR  risk  aversion  deflationary  deflation  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  debt  monetisation  debt  monetization  Glass-Steagall  self-regulation  regulators  regulation  leverage  margin  trading  property  bubble  arbitrage  speculative  bubbles  asset  bubble  UK  USA  Europe  ECB  Fed  BOE  zombie  consumer  squeezed  middle  class  zombie  corporations  NPL  junk  bond  realestate  macroprudential  policy  mortgage  market  equilibrium  disequilibrium  Economist  economists  Adair  Turner  hayek 
february 2016 by asterisk2a
MAXED OUT - YouTube
Maxed Out: Hard Times, Easy Credit and the Era of Predatory Lenders (2006)
credit  card  debt  credit  card  car  loan  consumer  debt  NPL  household  debt  credit  credit  bubble  squeezed  middle  class  working  poor  subprime 
february 2016 by asterisk2a
Help-to-buy loan scheme nets Treasury £213m in paper profit | Money | The Guardian
[ gov is not co-owner of private property! Make away with Nurse Bursaries and other gov support for education. But support the property price! by keeping supply always lower than demand. and use policy to increase demand w subsidies! where to put their savings! & subsidy for builders ] Rising house prices across much of England mean a government scheme to help buyers of newbuild property may have made more than £200m for the Treasury in its first two-and-a-half years. The help-to-buy equity loan scheme gives buyers an interest-free loan for five years in return for a percentage stake in their property. When the home is sold, the buyer returns the same percentage of the sale price, meaning that any fall or rise in house prices affects the return. Analysis by property firm Hometrack and shared with the Guardian suggests that a surge in house prices in some areas means the total value of homes bought through the scheme since its launch in April 2013 has increased by more than £1bn.
property  bubble  UK  speculative  bubbles  Housing  Crisis  affordable  social  Help  to  Buy  Scheme  Right  to  Buy  Buy-to-Let  Help  to  Save  budget  deficit  austerity  constituency  Party  Funding  babyboomers  BOE  macroprudential  policy  mortgage  market  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  hunt  for  yield  distortion  financial  repression  household  debt  consumer  debt  credit  card  debt  Generationengerechtigkeit  generation  rent  fairness  asset  bubble  asset  allocation  NPL  subprime  Payday  Loans  car  loan  student  debt  student  loan  debt  student  loan  Tories  fiscal  policy  monetary  policy  policy  error  policy  folly  Conservative  Party  nasty  short-termism  voter  turnout  disenfranchise  disenfranchised  David  Cameron  George  Osborne  underinvestment  infrastructure  investment  productive  investment  recovery  Richard  Koo  balance  sheet  recession  deleveraging  debtoverhang  zombie  consumer  zombie  banks  zombie  corporations  secular  stagnation  Privatisation  trickle-down  economics  dogma  ideology  GFC  bank  bailout  subsidies  subsidizing  corporate  welfare 
february 2016 by asterisk2a
Beware the Minuses of Negative Interest Rates
Whether sub-zero interest rates actually work is open to debate, however. So says Richard Koo, the chief economist of the Nomura Research Institute. “In my view,” he writes, “the adoption of negative interest rates is an act of desperation born out of despair over the inability of quantitative easing and inflation targeting to produce the desired results.” The failure of the BOJ and the ECB to meet their inflation and growth goals is shared by the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England. None of these central banks understand that their textbook solutions don’t fit the real economy, Koo asserts. [...] And on a more practical level, why corporations sit on record hoards of cash (taxes aside). [<< macro prudential policy ] //&! “When no one is borrowing money, monetary policy is largely useless.” [...] Keynes was right and (Milton) Freidman was wrong. - bit.ly/1Kl07Ri & There is no Confidence Fairy //&! fam.ag/1ogOOiM & bit.ly/1LpJL4W & bit.ly/1VgSjAB & bit.ly/214Icm3 & bit.ly/1Kl228n
secular  stagnation  emerging  middle  class  demographic  bubble  ageing  population  western  world  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  distortion  liquidity  trap  New  Normal  financial  repression  GFC  economic  history  Richard  Koo  consumer  debt  squeezed  middle  class  household  debt  credit  card  debt  car  loan  business  confidence  consumer  confidence  student  loan  debt  student  loan  Super  Cycle  debt  servitude  mortgage  market  asset  bubble  speculative  bubbles  hunt  for  yield  hot-money  equity  bubble  bond  bubble  property  bubble  credit  bubble  BRIC  China  student  debt  disposable  income  discretionary  spending  Frontier  Markets  emerging  market  UK  USA  Europe  Japan  Abenomics  Niall  Ferguson  Paul  Krugman  Joseph  Stiglitz  Gini  coefficient  inequality  income  inequality  income  distribution  income  mobility  wage  stagnation  income  growth  tax  evasion  tax  avoidance  Wall  Street  profit  maximisation  shareholder  value  underinvestment  austerity  productivity  output  gap  public  investment  productive  investment  infrastructure  investment  business  investment  STEM  R&D  competitiveness  Robert  Reich  balance  sheet  recession  deleveraging  debtoverhang  zombie  banks  zombie  corporations  zombie  consumer  macroprudential  policy  miltonfriedman  JohnMaynardKeynes  keynes  Keynesianism  Fiscal  Pact  policy  monetary  policy  Schuldenbremse  unconventional  monetary  policy  QT  Taper  money  supply  money  ve 
february 2016 by asterisk2a
What's holding back the world economy? | Business | The Guardian
[ continued financialisation of economy / faustian pact ] QE and low interest rates have disproportionately created wealth in the financial sector and inflated asset bubbles. It has done little for the real economy. The rules of the market need to be rewritten [...] dominant policies during the post-crisis period – fiscal retrenchment and quantitative easing (QE) by major central banks – have offered little support to stimulate household consumption, investment, and growth. On the contrary, they have tended to make matters worse. In the US, quantitative easing did not boost consumption and investment partly because most of the additional liquidity returned to central banks’ coffers in the form of excess reserves. [...] private investment did not grow [...] [ QE supported only financial sector and zombie banks and corporations, little to nothing went into the real economy for investment in western world ] [ which leads us to say we are still in a banking crisis per se ]
Joseph  Stiglitz  secular  stagnation  reflate  reflation  austerity  QE  ZIRP  NIRP  TARP  TLTRO  LTRO  zombie  banks  zombie  corporations  zombie  consumer  Richard  Koo  consumer  debt  household  debt  car  loan  credit  card  debt  Student  Bubble  loan  debt  disposable  income  discretionary  spending  squeezed  middle  class  Precariat  low  pay  low  income  wage  stagnation  income  growth  USA  UK  Europe  western  world  mortgage  market  NPL  debt  servitude  underinvestment  productive  investment  infrastructure  investment  economic  history  policy  folly  policy  error  corporate  welfare  tax  evasion  tax  avoidance  Gini  coefficient  income  distribution  social  mobility  income  mobility  poverty  trap  inequality  recovery  job  creation  Service  Sector  Jobs  distortion  financial  repression  speculative  bubbles  hunt  for  yield  asset  equity  VIX  volatility  Help  to  Buy  Scheme  monetary  policy  liquidity  trap  fiscal  policy  debtoverhang  deleveraging  balance  sheet  recession  consumer  confidence  business  confidence  business  investment  productivity  output  gap  aggregate  demand  income  redistribution  repo  monetary  transmission  mechanism  monetary  system  financial  market  GFC  banking  crisis  retail  banking  investment  banking  hot-money  Frontier  Markets  emerging  market  BRIC  rent-seeking  rentier  carbon  tax  economic  damage 
february 2016 by asterisk2a
Amid market turmoil and confusion, there are four key economic trends shaping society
The UK economy currently gets nowhere near its target of 2%. Inflation would decrease the value of current debts, making them less of a burden. In a world without much inflation, it is hard to get wages up. The worse case scenario is that debt costs increase, as prices and wages stagnate. [ ignoring debt and income growth - stagnation at their peril - youtu.be/KIaXVntqlUE - gov is no household budget, Steve Keen + Richard Koo ] [...] And in this age of austerity, these factors will work against governments seeking to reduce the welfare bill. Recent data shows that, in UK cities, growing numbers of low paid jobs have led to rising claims for welfare such as housing benefits, defeating the government’s aims to reduce spending.
economic  history  secular  stagnation  inflation  targeting  nominal  GDP  targeting  fiscal  policy  monetary  policy  inflation  wage  growth  wage  stagnation  squeezed  middle  class  job  creation  Service  Sector  Jobs  low  pay  low  income  minimum  wage  UK  Mark  Carney  austerity  tax  credit  housing  benefit  working  tax  credit  debt  servitude  Super  Cycle  Richard  Koo  liquidity  trap  monetary  transmission  mechanism  monetary  stimulus  debtoverhang  balance  sheet  recession  deleveraging  household  debt  consumer  debt  credit  card  debt  western  world  GDP  wage  inflation  income  growth  disposable  income  discretionary  spending  income  distribution  Gini  coefficient  Super  Rich  1%  inequality  income  inequality  income  redistribution  tax  evasion  tax  avoidance  monetary  system  monetary  theory  student  debt  student  loan  debt  student  loan  Bubble  debt  monetisation  debt  monetization  zombie  banks  monetary  velocity  Niall  Ferguson  NPL  junk  bond  zombie  corporations  zombie  consumer  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  Taper  China  credit  BRIC  output  gap  productivity  industrial  policy  public  investment  productive  investment  business  investment  infrastructure  investment  property  financial  repression  speculative  bubbles  asset  allocation  Generationengerechtigkeit  fairness  money  supply  faultlines  global  imbalances  recovery  working  poor  Precariat 
february 2016 by asterisk2a
Adam Posen: What Japan and the UK Demonstrate about Macroeconomic Stimulus - YouTube
Confidence Fairy - Paul Krugman. (sov debt crisis) only applicable if you don't have a central bank. like Greece. that can do QE as much as you need to stabilise monetary system. ie stop deleveraging, only serving debt. meaning deflation. // different QE, diversity. shift risk appetite to more riskier debt. ... // fiscal activism can't overcome austerity ... // UK has it work because it doesn't have the manufacturing base. but its population is growing, not shrinking. but job creation - multiplier to economy is 1 or lower because of mostly service sector job creation which lot need to access welfare state through tax credits. // min 11. Gordon Brown and Alistair Darling did lots right! GPB depreciation. budget deficit growth. But imports stayed high!!! current account deficit and trade deficit. Austerity undermines growth and BOE policy! cut you future and investment (4-1 ration). UK got no credibility bonus from bond vigilantes, no FDI inflows.
Abenomics  economic  history  secular  stagnation  UK  austerity  Japan  BOE  BOJ  Mark  Carney  deflationary  deflation  demographic  bubble  ageing  population  migration  immigration  Sozialpolitik  Integrationspolitik  Paul  Krugman  JGB  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  liquidity  trap  balance  sheet  recession  Richard  Koo  deleveraging  ECB  TLTRO  LTRO  debt  monetisation  debt  monetization  monetary  policy  monetary  transmission  mechanism  monetary  stimulus  monetary  theory  unconventional  monetary  policy  monetary  system  financial  repression  distortion  speculative  bubbles  creditrating  creditrisk  junk  bond  NPL  credit  bubble  recovery  George  Osborne  Fiscal  Pact  Schuldenbremse  Super  Cycle  sovereign  debt  crisis  debtoverhang  currency-war  currency  debasement  currency  war  current  account  deficit  trade  deficit  IMF  OBR  foreign  direct  investment  Conservative  Party  nasty  fairness  Generationengerechtigkeit  policy  folly  policy  error 
january 2016 by asterisk2a
"The Untouchables (2013)" PBS documentary about how the Holder Justice Department refused to prosecute Wall Street Fraud despite overwhelming evidence : Documentaries
faustian pact they've made. getting funded their elections by greedy crony capitalists. and are thus beholden to their calls they make and the framework they said they would give them funding for their campaign under. // "breakdown of internal controls [...] 60% of loans in possible portfolio did not meet its own standards, were still bought, put into portfolio" - Citigroup exec // Underfunded/understaffed/non-experience/no-stars @FBI and CIA! corporates have a bigger pocket and star lawyers who know how to position and spin. And without a Whistleblower/Leak it is nearly impossible if not for the case that the accused was really stupid and left a clear trail and or incriminates himself in paperwork/communication. // "criminal intent" //&! No Regrets at Countrywide - bloom.bg/1UptWQC //&! Countrywide’s Mozilo Said to Face U.S. Suit Over Loans - bloom.bg/1RMqPEA //&! NEW SUIT - No, the US government hasn’t forgotten about Countrywide founder Angelo Mozilo - bit.ly/1lQbEfD
GFC  banking  crisis  Greed  crony  capitalism  bank  bailout  economic  history  white-collar  crime  accounting  scandal  corporate  scandal  lobbyist  lobby  Lobbying  Career  Politicians  No  Representation  oligarchy  plutocracy  Super  Rich  1%  Fraud  securities-fraud  bonuses  bonus  financial  incentive  financial  literacy  FinancialCrisisInquiryCommission  Mozilo  CountrywideFinancial  Angelo  Mozilo  subprime  NINJA  Loan  non-performing  NPL  CDS  CDO  citigroup  misselling  misrepresentation  Consumer  Protection  misleading  Positioning  PR  spin  doctor  manufactured  consent  Whistleblower  Eric  Holder  presidency  barackobama  Party  Funding  Justice  System  economic  injustice  Washington  revolving  door  accountability  due  diligence  miconduct 
january 2016 by asterisk2a
Why is the pound falling so sharply? - BBC News
Weak economic data is casting doubt on the future performance of the UK economy, with inflation persistently well below the Bank of England's 2% target and earnings growth slowing down from a six-year high. Earlier this month, figures for November showed that UK industrial output had suffered its sharpest decline since 2013. Looking further ahead, investors are worried about the outcome of a referendum on the UK's continued membership of the EU. As Andy Scott of foreign exchange services firm HiFX put it: "Concerns over the UK economy and the risk of a Brexit look likely to continue to haunt sterling." Traders are also generally more risk-averse in the light of the global turmoil caused by Chinese market problems and falling oil prices, which makes them reluctant to buck sterling's downward trend.
UK  BOE  Taper  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  liquidity  trap  debtoverhang  consumer  debt  household  debt  credit  card  debt  mortgage  market  industrial  policy  austerity  monetary  policy  fiscal  policy  Richard  Koo  zombie  consumer  zombie  banks  zombie  corporations  monetary  transmission  mechanism  monetary  theory  unconventional  monetary  policy  Mark  Carney  MPC  energy  policy  energy  price  competitive  competitiveness  STEM  underinvestment  tax  evasion  tax  avoidance  corporate  welfare  corporate  tax  rate  subsidies  subsidizing  secular  stagnation  immigration  migration  job  creation  low  income  Service  Sector  Jobs  recovery  GFC  bank  bailout  budget  deficit  London  Scottish  Independence  Scottish  referendum  Devolution  Brexit  uncertainty  unknown  unkown  global  economy  credit  bubble  debt  servitude  Super  Cycle  student  loan  debt  student  debt  baddebt  NPL  private  debt  economic  history  Niall  Ferguson  democracy  Super  Rich  1%  oligarchy  plutocracy  Gini  coefficient  inequality  social  mobility  income  mobility  Precariat  Zero  Hour  Contract  precarious  work  Contractor  low  pay  minimum  wage  George  Osborne  Tories  dogma  ideology  Conservative  Party  neoliberal 
january 2016 by asterisk2a
Meet the Renegades Steve Keen - YouTube
[ chicago school of economics ] 17:25 - private debt // demand will never be again so starong as before GFC. growth of debt/credit is normal. but without growth and high debt is cancer. + current account deficit/trade deficit = means things for UK can not go in indefinitely. austerity will run its course, will not make things better. next is property bubble! and NPL as normalisation to 2% nears // China margin trading & leverage via credit bubble. property bubble. // 24:20 - there is still room to grow household/private debt. Tories treat gov budget like a household rather than a bank! UK will stumble along at lower rate than America. Will not get better! Just rearranging deck chairs of a painfully slowly sinking ship.
secular  stagnation  private  debt  household  debt  consumer  debt  credit  card  debt  UK  USA  Japan  economic  history  car  loan  GFC  credit  bubble  debt  servitude  consumer  confidence  junk  bond  NPL  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  monetary  policy  fiscal  policy  Richard  Koo  student  debt  student  loan  debt  debtoverhang  deleveraging  balance  sheet  recession  mortgage  market  trade  deficit  current  account  deficit  austerity  dogma  neoclassical  economics  book  ideology  margin  trading  leverage  western  world  Hegemony  China  Super  Cycle 
january 2016 by asterisk2a
BBC Documentary - The Money Trap - How Banks Control the World Through Debt - YouTube
most profitable credit card debt customers are those making just the minimum payment. ... a credit card being a statement of status! retaining customers by upgrading them regularly w higher limits, new colors, new perks (they will never use). // unsecured lending - DEFINITION of 'Unsecured Loan' A loan that is issued and supported only by the borrower's creditworthiness, rather than by a type of collateral. An unsecured loan is one that is obtained without the use of property as collateral for the loan. // revolving debt // the higher your credit limit, the more you are likely to spend. // half of his income to just serve credit card fees and interest charges (no payments towards paying down) debt ... // banks lend irresponsibly bc they know they can get away with it, or somebody else will do it! because there is not regulation. no bank oversight. //&! The Truth about Payday Loans :Young, British and Broke - youtu.be/-yWxTvffbuE //&! Gambling/Betting Shops on Highstreet.
retail  banking  investment  banking  CDO  CDS  subprime  credit  card  debt  credit  card  financial  literacy  household  debt  mortgage  market  Payday  Loans  exploitation  debt  servitude  student  loan  debt  Bubble  property  ethics  moral  beliefs  revolving  debt  consumer  debt  debtoverhang  debt  Super  Cycle  student  debt  private  debt  status  symbol  instant  gratification  status  anxiety  socioeconomic  status  zombie  consumer  consumerist  consumerism  Protection  overdraft  materialism  crony  capitalism  capitalism  NPL  NINJA  Wall  Street  profit  maximisation  shareholder  value  bonuses  bonus  financial  incentive  incentive  creditrating  credit  creditrisk  credit  score  self-regulation  Bank  Oversight  financial  instruments  derivatives 
january 2016 by asterisk2a
No, Goldman Is Not Calling For An "Oil Bull Market": Here Is What It Really Said And Why It's Bad News For Banks | Zero Hedge
And herein lies the rub, because the more energy suppliers go into bankruptcy to remove the excess supply which is the critical condition of Goldman's upside case, the greater the shock will be among the banking system which is clearly underreserved for a mass default wave. To wit, just moments ago Wells admitted that it is among the most exposed banks to the energy sector: WELLS FARGO HAS $17 BIL OF OUTSTANDING ENERGY LOANS: CFO
Oil  price  NPL  shale  gas  fracking  USA  OPEC  commodity  prices 
january 2016 by asterisk2a
"How The Investment Grade Dominos Will Fall" - UBS Explains | Zero Hedge
According to Citigroup's Matt King, it is now officially too late to save junk debt, which has entered the final stage of the credit cycle, the one where defaults for high yield bonds rise with every passing month. [...] we estimate that nearly $1tn of speculative-grade credits are at risk of default over the next downturn, as the stock of low-quality credit has soared. [...] These developments are a negative headwind for investment-grade corporates in 2016.
creditrating  creditrisk  NPL  corporate  debt  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  distortion  speculative  bubbles  debt  monetisation  debt  monetization  leverage  junk  bond  sovereign  debt  crisis  PIGS  monetary  policy  emerging  market  Frontier  Markets  BRIC  economic  history  Taper  QT  M&A 
january 2016 by asterisk2a
The Deflation Monster Has Arrived | Zero Hedge
the world’s grand experiment with debt has come to an end. And it’s now unraveling. [...] The next thing is to give money to Main Street. [...] Either way, money will be printed out of thin air and given to you. That’s what’s coming next. Possibly after a failed attempt at demanding negative interest rates from the banks. But coming it is. [...] Once people lose faith in their currency all bets are off. The smart people will be those who take their fresh central bank money and spend it before the next guy.
deflationary  deflation  debt  servitude  credit  bubble  squeezed  middle  class  working  poor  secular  stagnation  UK  USA  Europe  western  world  Precariat  precarious  work  household  debt  Richard  Koo  GFC  China  recovery  property  bubble  subprime  economic  history  neoliberalism  neoliberal  Wall  Street  shareholder  value  profit  maximisation  capitalism  crony  capitalism  exploitation  Super  Cycle  consumer  debt  credit  card  debt  car  loan  student  loan  debt  debtoverhang  NPL  sovereign  debt  crisis  private  debt  debt  monetisation  debt  monetization  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  bank  bailout  distortion  capital  allocation  asset  allocation  speculative  bubbles  financial  repression  2016  2015  fiscal  policy  monetary  policy  fiat  money  fiat  currency  trust  distrust  trustagent 
january 2016 by asterisk2a
Why are we looking on helplessly as markets crash all over the world? | Will Hutton | Opinion | The Guardian
[ so much debt in the system, a rise in interest can not be served as is ] The imminent collapse of the Chinese Ponzi-scheme economy shows that we need to bring control to the international economy. [...] There has always been a tension at the heart of capitalism. Although it is the best wealth-creating mechanism we’ve made, it can’t be left to its own devices. Its self-regulating properties, contrary to the efforts of generations of economists trying to prove otherwise, are weak. [...] Profits as a share of national income in Britain and the US touch all-time highs; wages touch an all-time low as the power of organised labour diminishes and the gig economy of short-term contracts takes hold. The excesses of the rich, digging underground basements to house swimming pools, cinemas and lavish gyms, sit alongside the travails of the new middle-class poor. These are no longer able to secure themselves decent pensions and their gig-economy children defer starting families ...
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january 2016 by asterisk2a
Börse: Warum Schwellenländer für die Kurskrise sorgen - Kolumne - SPIEGEL ONLINE
Chronisch überschüssige Leistungsbilanz [ & Over capacity for less/stagnant demand ... + biggest credit bubble (china) popped as the west can't afford more. QE and ZIRP has run it's way! ] [...] Der Grund, warum der deutsche Aktienindex weitaus mehr betroffen ist als andere europäische Indizes, liegt allein an der strukturellen Abhängigkeit der deutschen Industrie von Blasen in anderen Ländern. Anstatt auf bessere Stimmung zu hoffen, sind Anleger gut beraten, sich über den weiteren Verlauf der Schwellenländerkrise Gedanken zu machen. [...] [ Fed taper makes things more difficult to serve debt ] [...] Langfristig sind es die Gewinne und nicht die Zinsen, die die Aktienpreise treiben. //&! China (Asia/BRIC/Frontier Market) Corporate Bond Yields up - bit.ly/1Sme7fV & NPL probably too. //&! If property is biggest item of household wealth in a property bubble (UK, China, ... USA) - bit.ly/1Zpiy8M
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january 2016 by asterisk2a
Osborne warns of 'dangerous cocktail' of economic risks - BBC News
[ repeat phrases - "strong economy", "strong economy, strong NHS" ] The UK faces a "cocktail" of serious threats from a slowing global economy as 2016 begins, Chancellor George Osborne has warned. Speaking in Cardiff, Mr Osborne said this year is likely to be one of the toughest since the financial crisis. He told business leaders that far from "mission accomplished" on the economy, "2016 is the year of mission critical". His message is in stark contrast to the positive tone of his Autumn Statement, when he said the UK was "growing fast". [...] that the Autumn Statement had put in place a four-year plan to restore the UK's public finances, and make the economy more productive, with businesses more competitive so they could create jobs. [...] Mr Osborne told the Today programme the UK's economic recovery was not "a debt-fuelled recovery", citing the support of the governor of the Bank of England in his assessment. [ not public, but private household debt! ]
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january 2016 by asterisk2a
Börsenabsturz in China: Der Kontrollverlust - Kommentar - SPIEGEL ONLINE
Der Börsen-Crash in China ist Symptom eines fundamentalen Wandels: Um den Wohlstand zu erhalten, muss die Regierung immer mehr Kontrolle abgeben. Die Allmacht der kommunistischen Partei gerät ins Wanken.
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january 2016 by asterisk2a
The roof is being fixed but beware the house crashing beneath it | Business | The Guardian
Consumer spending is driving economic growth but household debt and the house price-income ratio is at a record high. Be afraid [...] It is worth recalling that when Osborne became chancellor five and a half years ago that he had two big objectives. The first was to repair the hole in the public finances, which is still very much a work in progress. The other was to shift the centre of gravity of the economy back towards making things for export. This remains a pipedream. [...] Despite the welcome pickup in business investment, the main driver of growth has been consumer spending, which has been boosted by low interest rates, the fall in inflation caused by lower oil prices, and a modest acceleration in earnings. [...] “not the ideal shape for the recovery” and it can say that again. The current recovery looks like all the previous recoveries. [...] “Fast-rising household debt is needed to maintain a reasonable rate of growth in consumers’ spending and GDP in a world of austerity ...
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december 2015 by asterisk2a
UK mortgage market, Barclays Qatar probe and US bank CEOs by FT Banking Weekly
there will be no push for new homes to flood the market, increasing prices support status quo, Loan to value measures (underwater or not?). house prices outpaced income since GFC. Buy-to-Let amplifies boom-bust. bank system resilient enough for 35% fall of prices. // generationengerechtigkeit - more of disposable income to spend on rent! putting money into pockets of rentier (buy-to-let) who can him or herself buy only so many pairs of jeans.
UK  mortgage  market  2015  NPL  underwater  CDS  securitisation  retail  banking  investment  banking  CDO  Taper  BOE  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  property  bubble  Buy-to-Let  Help  to  Buy  Scheme  self-regulation  regulation  regulators  Right  to  Buy  generation  rent  Supply  and  Demand  Demand  and  Supply  distortion  GFC  recovery  leverage  macroprudential  policy  microeconomic  policy  constituency  Tories  Conservative  Party  Generationengerechtigkeit  rent-seeking  rentier 
october 2015 by asterisk2a
Nomi Prins-Federal Reserve Transition to Destruction - YouTube
via - http://schiffgold.com/interviews/former-wall-street-insider-some-form-of-bank-bail-ins-will-come-to-us-video/ ||&! QE and ZIRP bad policy, bank and market cuddeling. no mainstreet recovery! trickle-down failed. Private sector can not carry existing minimal momentum forward. policy has not helped people on the ground. // many bubbles created: junk bond/zombie corps, car loans, student loans, property, ... // transition to destruction, volatility is first sign. // market manipulation! // inflated financial system // rise in NPL! where how will they cover that? another bailout? or bail-in. taking depositors haircut. FDIC can't cover that all.
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october 2015 by asterisk2a
How the banks ignored the lessons of the crash | Joris Luyendijk | Business | The Guardian
Joris Luyendijk spent two years talking to hundreds of City insiders. They revealed how close we came to disaster – and how quickly finance went back to business as usual [...] [Like in cycling, doping ... omerta ... blood brother ] The City is governed by a code of silence and fear of publicity; those caught talking to the press without a PR officer present could be sacked or sued. But once I had persuaded City insiders to talk (always and only on condition of anonymity), they were remarkably forthcoming.
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september 2015 by asterisk2a
IMF warns of new financial crisis if interest rates rise | Business | The Guardian
Fund says governments in emerging markets should prepare now for a new credit crunch because of a 10-year corporate borrowing binge [...] “Shocks to the corporate sector could quickly spill over to the financial sector and generate a vicious cycle as banks curtail lending. Decreased loan supply would then lower aggregate demand and collateral values, further reducing access to finance and thereby economic activity, and in turn, increasing losses to the financial sector,” the IMF warns. [...] “Emerging markets must prepare for the adverse domestic stability implications of global financial tightening,” the IMF says.
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september 2015 by asterisk2a
Bank of England concerns over buy-to-let boom - BBC News
The growing buy-to-let property market in the UK could post a threat to wider financial stability, a Bank of England committee has said. [...] Buy-to-let mortgage lending had the potential to "amplify" a housing boom and bust, the Bank's Financial Stability Committee (FPC) concluded. Lending in this sector has risen by 40% since 2008, the FPC said. It stopped short of suggesting any intervention by government or regulators at this stage. "The FPC is alert to the rapid growth of the market and potential developments in underwriting standards," the committee said.
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september 2015 by asterisk2a
The new right to buy is solving 1979’s problems at today’s expense | Gaby Hinsliff | Comment is free | The Guardian
This Thatcherite policy revival fails to recognise that the main cause of the housing crisis is affordability //&! Housing bill needs radical, long-term measures to reform the market. As well as increasing supply, the government needs to use the tax system to make buy-to-let less attractive as an investment - bit.ly/1PDxWe3
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september 2015 by asterisk2a
The other generation rent: meet the people flatsharing in their 40s | Money | The Guardian
Number of flatsharers aged 45-54 has risen by 300% in five years, figures show, amid soaring house prices, especially in London [...] Photographer Alex Forsey, 44, is typical of the new generation of flatsharers in their 40s. He recently moved into a house in Clapton, east London, with three other people in their 20s to 40s. He said: “The most affordable one-bed flat I was shown was £1,200 a month, and it was worse than a squat. The agent tried telling me it was a bargain.” //&! ability to get interest only loan is unbelievable.
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september 2015 by asterisk2a
Non-performing loans in China, investment bank landscape and Portugal's Novo Banco by FT Banking Weekly
what is the exposure of western banks to china? zero hedge had one post that showed London's banks were biggest participants in chinas credit bubble bonanza ...
NPL  shadow  banking  China  credit  bubble  2015  investment  banking  banking  crisis  PBOC  QE  margin  trading  leverage  equity  bubble  property  bubble  infrastructure  investment  ghost  towns  migration 
september 2015 by asterisk2a
Weltwirtschaft: BIZ warnt vor Krediten in Schwellenländern - SPIEGEL ONLINE
Die Bank für Internationalen Zahlungsausgleich sieht Alarmzeichen für Banken in vielen Schwellenländern. Die Kreditvergabe in China, Brasilien oder der Türkei habe ein bedrohliches Verhältnis angenommen, warnt die Notenbank. // &! Die Welt steuert auf den Bankrott zu (QE trap): Eine vorläufige Antwort: Das tieferliegende Problem besteht darin, dass sich die Weltwirtschaft insgesamt auf den Bankrott zubewegt - und das wird umso schneller gehen, je höher die Zinsen sind und je niedriger die Preissteigerungsraten.
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september 2015 by asterisk2a
One Map Shows Just How Expensive College Can Be for Students Making Minimum Wage
[S]ubstantial evidence that lack of information plays a critical role in shaping the financial decisions people make. Consider how a vast majority of people who are currently defaulting on their student loans in the U.S. would be able to halt their financial suffering if they knew they could enroll in an income-based repayment plan that would shrink or eliminate their monthly payments. This map goes some way toward explaining why low-income students are less likely to enroll in college. If the idea that college is a risky investment is something thats gaining traction in well-to-do circles, then surely people who hail from less fortunate backgrounds are even more inclined to think the potential price is too high. // could be seen as balance sheet recession: rising cost of education - & on other side - unable 2 pay w job u can get (asset value). Education is mispriced in UK/USA in a new world going forward! >> youtu.be/_EDGTzOXa_g?t=1h46m5s
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september 2015 by asterisk2a
Selling Off the State in China - Bloomberg View
China's latest batch of ugly data offers a stark message to President Xi Jinping: Whatever he's doing to prop up growth isn't working. Even worse than the 5.5 percent drop in exports last month was the 13.8 percent plunge in imports, indicating that domestic demand is weaker than the external sector. The good news is Xi is changing tack. Rather than just tossing more stimulus at the economy and stocks, he's redoubling efforts to reform the inefficient and opaque state-owned enterprises at the root of so many of China's vulnerabilities. In other words, Xi is finally working to strengthen China's foundations rather than papering over the cracks. The bad news is that Xi could just as easily be making things worse.
China  liberal  economic  reform  2015  credit  bubble  debtoverhang  balance  sheet  recession  deleveraging  PBOC  QE  macroeconomic  policy  microeconomic  policy  welfare  state  social  safety  net  savings  glut  public  health  care  system  disposable  income  discretionary  spending  fiscal  policy  fiscal  stimulus  monetary  policy  NPL  shadow  banking  banking  crisis  economic  reform 
september 2015 by asterisk2a
China's impossible trinity - BBC News
At the heart of China's problem is the "impossible trinity" of international macroeconomics. The impossible trinity - or trilemma - is the idea that it is impossible for a country to have three things at the same time: a stable currency, the free movement of capital (i.e. the absence of capital controls) and independent monetary policy. A country can instead choose just two of the options from this policy suite. The UK, in common with most developed economies, has free capital movement and an independent monetary policy - but not a controlled exchange rate. The Bank of England sets interest rates at a level it thinks is right for the UK economy and - as capital can flow into and out of the UK at will - the exchange rate is determined by the market. [...] But the bigger criticism is usually over the nature of the post-2009 stimulus package [...] But, for all the criticism, the counterfactual is rarely stated. What would global growth have looked like without it? [//+ deflation factors]
China  liberal  economic  reform  2015  credit  bubble  devaluation  currency  debasement  Yuan  RMB  PBOC  IMF  SDR  macroeconomics  monetary  policy  fiscal  policy  QE  recovery  GFC  economic  history  banking  crisis  shadow  banking  NPL  debtoverhang  balance  sheet  recession  deleveraging  property  bubble  hot-money  BRIC  western  world  global  trade  global  economy  deflationary  deflation  reflate  reflation  equity  bubble  asset  bubble  asset  allocation  distortion  unknown  unkown  unintended  consequences  Fed  BOE  BOJ  Abenomics  currency  war  currency-war  aggregate  demand  short-fall  aggregate  demand  Richard  Koo  consumer  debt  household  debt  student  loan  debt  debt  servitude  sovereign  debt  crisis  debt  bubble  Super  Cycle  student  debt  public  debt  debt  monetisation  debt  monetization  private  debt  globalisation  globalization  technological  progress  flat  world  wage  growth  wage  stagnation  secular  stagnation  borderless  global  imbalances  faultlines  structural  imbalance  savings  glut  Impediments  inequality  squeezed  middle  class  Europe  UK  OECD  marginal  propensity  to  consume  Sozialer  Abstieg  working  poor  precarious  work  income  growth  deregulation  self-regulation  Workers  Union  wage  pressure  disposable  income  income  distribution  income  redistribution  low  income  income  inequality  American  Dream  USA  Gini  Super  coe 
september 2015 by asterisk2a
▶ How The Economic Machine Works by Ray Dalio
credit great 4 productive investments 4 the future that will benefit u/me/gov/biz like infrastructure/edu/skills. but waste 4 pure consumption that dont increase productivity in the long run. Like consumer credit spend 2 replace a 2yr old flat screen. vs consumer credit 4 vocational/professional further edu 2 get a higher earning job (future higher income 2 repay the then debt liability & have some more/left over). Bad if u dont have later higher earnings from higher education 2 repay debt & just work in an underemployed placement that any college dropout could do. Thing is, college dropout doesnt have that debt liability that the higher education person has (reduced disposable income bc debt repayment + interest payments.) Women are hit double (gender pay gap) & triple (childcare long-term earnings loss). // min16 income growth important 2 keep up with debt repayment beyond interest. if not, we reached peak long-term debt cycle! // doesnt include globalisation's deflationary effects
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september 2015 by asterisk2a
After the Crisis - Mark Blyth - YouTube
>> what if rise of the banks (deregulation, easy credit, global financial markets - arbitrage, and making money with money) fuelled the growth of the last ~25-30 years. // min 47 3 asset bubbles popped // USA - 40% of corporate profits came from 10% of corporate sector (banks) // 30% of MIT grads went to banks instead of real world engineering and manufacturing. // underwater private sector! via credit bubble: student loans (now 1trn and still rising in USA and UK, future disposable income/discretionary spending lower than babyboomers because of wage stagnation, no wage growth) credit cards, mortgages, heloc (home equity line of credit) --- all will have to focus on paying back debt. // 2015 - us student loans 1.25trn - bit.ly/1KJ29uc + auto loans << bubble to eventually pop when collateral is falling! ie stagnant wages for 10 more years. and more and more cant repay their student loans. // 1:12:00 Bubbles move on; dot.com, real estate (property) & commodities, China,
Mark  Blyth  austerity  GFC  recovery  banking  crisis  sovereign  debt  crisis  economic  history  PIIGSFB  bank  bailout  fairness  Generationengerechtigkeit  toobigtofail  too  big  to  jail  too  big  to  bail  TBTF  ECB  NPL  deleveraging  balance  sheet  recession  underwater  credit  bubble  trickle-down  economics  China  2015  2008  dot.com  western  world  secular  stagnation  debt  servitude  student  loan  debt  student  loan  student  debt  generationy  generation  rent  Millennials  disposable  income  discretionary  spending  marginal  propensity  to  consume  Super  Rich  squeezed  middle  class  Sozialer  Abstieg  self-employment  Zero  Hour  Contract  Contractor  underemployed  precarious  work  working  poor  inequality  Gini  coefficient  post-capitalism  crony  capitalism  capitalism  manufactured  consent  Polarisation  Thomas  Piketty  developed  world  income  inequality  propaganda  populism  corporate  state  corporate  media  democracy  Career  Politicians  lobbyist  Lobbying  lobby  deregulation  self-regulation  Workers  Union  wage  stagnation  wage  growth  income  distribution  income  growth  income  mobility  low  income  income  redistribution  stagnation  consumer  debt  debtoverhang  Super  Cycle  debt  bubble  household  debt  private  debt  asset  bubble  reflate  reflation  asset  allocation  distortion  monetary  policy  monetary  stimulus  monetary  monetary 
september 2015 by asterisk2a
Banks Are Perilously Exposed to China - Bloomberg View
International banks, however, don't appear to be heavily exposed to China, at first glance anyway. Bank of International Settlements data show that their claims on Chinese banks, companies, consumers and public sector are quite manageable, though Australian and U.K. banks have extended a lot of credit in China in proportion to their total foreign assets: [...] U.K. banks' $198 billion in Chinese assets at the end of last year looks particularly threatening, especially given that HSBC and Standard Chartered both derive a significant portion of their revenue from China. This exposure is particularly problematic because a debt overhang is one of the Chinese economy's biggest problems.
exposure  China  banking  crisis  investment  banking  UK  USA  2015  credit  bubble  equity  bubble  speculative  bubbles  bond  bubble  property  bubble  asset  bubble  asset  allocation  distortion  ZIRP  PBOC  NIRP  QE  QT  2016  balance  sheet  recession  underwater  debtoverhang  VAR  excess  reserves  shadow  banking  fractional  reserve  banking  banking  Fed  BOE  London  Bank  Oversight  George  Osborne  David  Cameron  Mark  Carney  liquidity  trap  Taper  monetary  transmission  mechanism  M3  monetary  policy  monetary  stimulus  unconventional  monetary  policy  monetary  system  monetary  theory  austerity  unknown  unkown  unintended  consequences  deregulation  self-regulation  regulation  regulators  Westminster  Toff  Conservative  Party  Tories  Establishment  Privileged  speculative  speculation  derivatives  financial  repression  financial  market  financial  cycle  financial  literacy  financial  crisis  HSBC  Standard  Chartered  NPL  correction  overcapacity  AIIB  Asia  FX  reserves  centralbank  reserves  margin  trading  leverage  irrational  exuberance  hubris  panic  petrodollar  Oil  price  OPEC  global  trade  global  economy  global  growth  global  imbalances  faultlines  structural  imbalance  Impediments  debt  monetisation  debt  monetization  BIS  Germany  Japan  Yuan  RMB  devaluation 
september 2015 by asterisk2a
Inside the Politics of Chinese Market Intervention - YouTube
missteps along the way to re-tool economy! // too much capacity build for a underperforming world and china and ASIA = NPL too.
China  equity  bubble  credit  bubble  market  intervention  2015  property  bubble  asset  allocation  distortion  PBOC  banking  crisis  shadow  banking  shadow  economy  AIIB  NPL 
september 2015 by asterisk2a
Marc Faber: The Global Economy Is Entering An Epic Slump - YouTube
could see liquidity squeeze. have global credit bubble. Chinas own (2009-Put) did pop, probably just this Summer '15! // may lead 2 zombie banks, if they werent already if it werent 4 PBOC with huge amounts of NPL also within shadow banking system. bit.ly/1FaVAZt policy response could be 2 double down on usual mis-guided measures 2 keep status quo. extend & pretend. // World is still flush, thus currently moderate signs of impact of China slowdown - bit.ly/1EuMVXe - will take time. // &! leverage / margin trading was/is at new highs comparable to 2007 on both side of Pacific (USA/China) - bit.ly/1IxyRXD - so the hurt was/will be big! BIG! underwater. talk abt manufactured balance sheet recession // &! Willem Buiter: Only "Helicopter Money" Can Save The World Now - bit.ly/1Et5Bq5 - major blast of fiscal spending by PBOC in some months when the hurt cant be ignored any more. Will wait too long, will drag everyone else down. & bit.ly/1NYB5nQ &! youtu.be/3wvQDxJPhQ4 - Jim Rogers.
liquidity  trap  credit  bubble  2015  China  private  debt  household  debt  PBOC  equity  bubble  property  bubble  hunt  for  yield  speculative  bubbles  asset  allocation  asset  bubble  bond  bubble  distortion  margin  trading  NPL  zombie  banks  banking  crisis  shadow  banking  leverage  underwater  contagion  USA  UK  Europe  developed  world  IMF  OECD  QE  currency-war  currency  debasement  currency  war  fiscal  stimulus  fiscal  policy  monetary  policy  Jim  Rogers 
august 2015 by asterisk2a
Why China Had To Crash - Forbes
Private Debt/household debt 2 GDP exceeding 1.5x/150% spells trouble. Chinas pace of Private Debt expansion through credit was unprecedented in % terms compared to any other recent credit bubble (China Put, 2009) on.ft.com/1Ixhw1a // Could now spell balance sheet recession (underwater, servicing debt for worth(less) asset ie stock (+margin trading) or property (inland or overseas)) thus deleveraging of private households. --- Metropolitan property markets across the world have been flooded with speculative money from China & BRIC! Just look at last chart of % of household debt increase bit.ly/1va3oaw Its Russia, China, Brazil, ... // And China banking system & shadow banking system could sit on a lot of NPL coming 2016. Zombie banks in China, ups! PBOC commanded to lend post-2009! // &! bit.ly/1KWkTQY // &! youtu.be/-3aBjFo2Fh4 - Steve Keen (Mar 29, 2015) 'with bad models you can't see shocks coming!'
China  2015  credit  bubble  margin  trading  property  bubble  equity  bubble  asset  allocation  hot-money  hunt  for  yield  PBOC  balance  sheet  recession  deleveraging  debtoverhang  underwater  devaluation  Yuan  RMB  BRIC  speculative  bubbles  asset  bubble  bond  bubble  NPL  zombie  banks  private  debt  household  debt  Steve  Keen 
august 2015 by asterisk2a
International Focus - A History of Austerity - YouTube
fallacy of composition problem // short-term profit seeking and rent-seeking behaviour, underinvestment, no productive investment - especially long-term. // this underinvestment - public and private sector + market forces and technological progess will level the world and the China/Asia/LatAm rises up to the western world level while western world stays stagnant (loss of standard/quality of living competitively) because of being behind - software is eating the world, 3D printing, uncompetitive manufacturing and heavy industry/goods because of higher energy prices because of lack of investment in energy storage systems that are realized right now and backing off in investment in renewable energy and energy efficiency schemes (especially UK budget2015), automation, robotics, lack knowledge workforce to fill future digital/STEM/knowledge jobs, because of low social mobility, student debt, cuts in education - vocational - professional, as well as giving up on child poverty targets.
rent-seeking  austerity  economic  history  recovery  GFC  secular  stagnation  ideology  dogma  European  Union  UK  USA  2015  underinvestment  productive  investment  asset  allocation  short-term  thinking  short-term  view  hunt  for  yield  QE  ZIRP  NIRP  asset  bubble  speculative  bubbles  equity  bubble  bond  bubble  public  investment  infrastructure  investment  long-term  view  long-term  thinking  Career  Politicians  neoliberalism  neoliberal  No  Representation  academia  academics  Angela  Merkel  Wolfgang  Schäuble  Troika  IMF  OECD  ChristineLagarde  Richard  Koo  Paul  Krugman  Robert  Reich  Joseph  Stiglitz  sovereign  debt  crisis  zombie  banks  TBTF  too  big  to  jail  toobigtofail  bank  bailout  NPL  ECB  Fed  BOE  fiscal  policy  Pact  Schuldenbremse  manufactured  consent  corporate  state  propaganda  corporate  media  populism  PR  spin  doctor  Eurogroup  EuroFin  democracy  Generationengerechtigkeit  fairness  social  contract  crony  capitalism  deregulation  self-regulation  regulation  regulators  lobbyist  lobby  Lobbying  revolving  door  unintended  consequences  unknown  unkown  lost  decade  lost  generation  western  world  Developing  developed  world  Gini  coefficient  social  mobility  income  mobility  policy  in 
august 2015 by asterisk2a
China stock market: Paul Mason explains - YouTube
- slowdown is thread to social unrest and economic legitimacy << keeping yourself in power. // debt fuelled recovery also in China. Across the world. // run out of time to re-tool economy quiet quickly. the pain is ahead. very unknown future for Chinese economy, policy reaction, and global economy outlook. especially the size of contagion for global economy - BRIC, developed world. frontier, emerging economies.
PBOC  economic  history  economic  growth  NPL  reflate  reflation  2015  Taper  property  bubble  equity  bubble  GFC  recovery  Debt  Super  Cycle  communism  hunt  for  yield  emerging  middle  class  China  speculative  bubbles  speculative  speculation 
august 2015 by asterisk2a
Online Lenders Facing Marketing War — The Information
Too many companies offering similar services in online lending is driving up the cost of customer acquisition. Some feel higher marketing costs could lead to a shakeout in the industry, particularly affecting smaller competitors.
FinTech  customer  acquisition  NPL  wonga  burn  rate  traction  word  of  mouth  Net  Promoter  Score  banking  runway  LTCV  marketing  advertising 
august 2015 by asterisk2a
STEPHANIE FLANDERS: It's borrowing and debt driving Britain's recovery | This is Money
New forecasts that went with his speech paint a different picture, of a recovery driven in large part by households borrowing more, and saving less. The level of household debt, relative to income, has been falling since the crisis, as families have cut back and worked to pay off debt. But the new Budget forecasts show it starting to rise again, from the final quarter of this year, moving from 142 per cent of income back up to 166 per cent by 2019. That’s more or less where household debt had got to in the lead up to the financial crisis, after all that irresponsible ‘debt fuelled growth’ under Gordon Brown. [...]And total level of investment is now more than 20 per cent below where it was at the start of 2008. // &! bit.ly/1IxXKax - low inflation, no inflation pressures expected till 2016 // &! bit.ly/1DepsJ2 - The UK has the most unbalanced economy of any OECD country.
2015  recovery  UK  austerity  fiscal  policy  monetary  policy  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  debt-fuelled  recovery  debt  monetisation  debt  monetization  economic  growth  economic  multiplier  productive  investment  asset  allocation  distortion  speculative  bubbles  hunt  for  yield  current  account  deficit  savings  rate  debt  servitude  household  debt  mortgage  market  Taper  credit  card  consumer  debt  debtoverhang  sovereign  debt  crisis  Super  Cycle  public  debt  private  debt  debt  bubble  NPL  Makers  Manufacturing  STEM  George  Osborne  short-term  thinking  short-term  view  David  Cameron  Career  Politicians  No  Representation  fiscal  stimulus  IMF  OECD  Toff  Privileged  Establishment  social  mobility  downward  mobility  Gini  coefficient  fairness  policy  error  policy  folly  interest  groups  democracy  social  tension  social  cohesion  budget2015  general  election  2015  election  campaign  promises  competitiveness  competitive  flat  world  borderless  global  trade  structural  imbalance  Impediments  secular  stagnation  Richard  Koo  deflationary  deflation  inflation  expectation  inflation  targeting  disinflation  inflation  Mark  Carney  BOE  balance  sheet  recession  deleveraging  economic  history  faultlines  global  imbalances  industrial  policy  output  gap  productivity 
july 2015 by asterisk2a
Russian debtors despair as boom turns to bust - BBC News
Millions of Russians took out loans during the economic boom years, but now they face crippling debts and the law is not on their side, the BBC's Oleg Boldyrev reports. [...] The Russian Central Bank says those chronic debts now total 1tn roubles (£10.7bn; $16.7bn). And that is at least 10% of the total personal debt - 10% which cannot be recovered by the banks. [...] "We were a bit stupid," Elena says. "They told us the minimum payment was 5,000 roubles a month and we paid that every month. But that was just the interest, not the loan itself." [...] [ moral of banks - make new loans (performance) vs prudence (and being a bit more conservative) to deny one person a loan just to see them off at another bank where they will get the loan and that rep getting his bonus, and you not. ] [...] After the good years many Russians are now getting a harsh lesson in capitalism - and inadequate regulations mean there is nothing to soften the blow.
Russia  sanctions  debt  servitude  debtoverhang  balancesheet  2015  NPL  financial  literacy  bankruptcy  insolvent  Insolvenzverschleppung  insolvency  moral  beliefs  bonuses  bonus  financial  incentive  incentive  zombie  banks  banking  crisis  investment  management  regulation  self-regulation  regulators  crony  capitalism  oversight  Bank  long-term  view  long-term  thinking  capitalism  Wall  Street  profit  maximisation  shareholder  value 
july 2015 by asterisk2a
Sorry to burst your bubble | The Economist
bit.ly/1IfX0s9 // "According to two new papers, the crucial variable that separates relatively harmless frenzies from disastrous ones is debt." // see China Stock Market leverage pop mid 2015 - with its huge rise in margin debt trading ... money which was flowing out of the property market into the Stock Market // // &! so if it is about debt - UK mortgage market & consumer/private debt of all kind (loans and credit card debt) does qualify as they took up what was cut by austerity. Plus the Supply Demand distortion, with new builds/project at a decades lowest. // Question for China. The China problem. Can they make their system sustainable before it will crush everyone. // The most obvious is China. But the next one will be different & greater than all came before. Period. Still, UK had not a housing bubble collapse on its own making. Only through endogenous circumstances. UK recession as UK economy runs mostly on consumer sector & debt) bit.ly/1OpClSO bit.ly/1wQITjb bit.ly/1SycLtY
leverage  debtoverhang  equity  bubble  regulation  self-regulation  regulators  debt  servitude  consumer  debt  sovereign  debt  crisis  debt  bubble  Super  Cycle  household  debt  private  debt  economic  history  KennethRogoff  carmenreinhart  Greenspan-Put  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  margin  trading  margin  debt  asset  liquidity  economic  damage  asset  bubble  asset  allocation  distortion  behavioral  economics  behavioral  finance  mortgage  market  UK  credit  card  housing  market  property  bubble  Funding  for  Lending  Scheme  Help  to  Buy  Scheme  fiscal  policy  monetary  policy  macroprudential  policy  sustainability  sustainable  NPL  zombie  banks  zombie  consumer  economic  model  economic  irrational  exuberance  macroeconomic  policy  economic  growth  debt  monetisation  reflation  debt  monetization  consumerist  consumerism  consumer  confidence  business  confidence  business  financial  financial  crisis  GFC  balance  sheet  recession  Richard  Koo  deleveraging  baddebt  non-performing  loan 
july 2015 by asterisk2a
Mark Blyth Mackenzie Lecture 2015 – Austerity and the Politics of Money - YouTube
too big to bail, thus stick it to the countries individually. // Draghi Put - LTRO, LTRO 2, ELA, what ever it takes, TLTRO, // 5trn (40% of EU GDP) put into banks since the crisis (as of 2013). // NPL (via stress test) - 1.22trn in NPL in EU banking system as of 2013. // TINA - there is no alternative (same with UK budget2015) - bbc.in/1N3hrdu &! Angela Merkel "Alternativlos" // bailed out the assets (income for banks via mortgages, loans, businesses loans and credit lines, insurance policies, 401ks, pension fund contributions) of the top 20-30% of the income distribution. austerity is put on the bottom 70-20% of the income distribution. a bailout not just of the banks, the system, but also the top 20-30%, the Super Rich, 1%, the Establishment, the Privileged, the babyboomers, the pensioners. ... and add QE, you really reflate/bail out the 1% ... 10% ... 20%, their pensions, investments, and so forth. // this was and still is a Class specific Put Option for those with assets!
Mark  Blyth  austerity  bailout  book  GFC  ECB  toobigtofail  TBTF  bank  bailout  too  big  to  bail  sovereign  debt  crisis  PIIGSFB  zombie  banks  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  financial  repression  economic  history  dogma  ideology  crony  capitalism  European  Union  Troika  Eurogroup  NPL  reflate  reflation  unknown  unkown  unintended  consequences  deregulation  self-regulation  regulation  regulators  complexity  oversight  investment  banking  shadow  banking  banking  crisis  financial  literacy  financial  market  financial  crisis  Wolfgang  Schäuble  MarioDraghi  equity  bubble  asset  allocation  distortion  inflation  targeting  inflation  expectation  European  Commission  European  Parliament  Angela  Merkel  GroKo  lenderoflastresort  Germany  banking  EuroFin  IMF  OECD  academia  academics  M3  monetary  policy  monetary  transmission  mechanism  Richard  Koo  debtoverhang  deleveraging  balance  sheet  recession  fiscal  stimulus  fiscal  policy  Pact  Schuldenbremse  spin  doctor  PR  manufactured  consent  propaganda  Lügenpresse  populism  corporate  media  deflationary  deflation  secular  stagnation  debt  monetisation  debt  monetization  Super  Cycle  budget2015  George  Osborne  Tories  Conservative  Party  Generationengerechtigkeit  fairness  No  bubble  asset  bubble  R 
july 2015 by asterisk2a
Capitalism in Crisis Amid Slow Growth and Growing Inequality - SPIEGEL ONLINE
Six years after the Lehman disaster, the industrialized world is suffering from Japan Syndrome. Growth is minimal, another crash may be brewing and the gulf between rich and poor continues to widen. Can the global economy reinvent itself? [...] The buzzword is "inclusion" and it refers to a trait that Western industrialized nations seem to be on the verge of losing: the ability to allow as many layers of society as possible to benefit from economic advancement and participate in political life. & http://youtu.be/hPPBYNKmuWc?t=3m52s IMF talking about over 70% of EU banks are Zombie Banks.
Japan  economic  history  GFC  recovery  greatrecession  2014  secular  stagnation  faultlines  Abenomics  Richard  Koo  structural  imbalance  global  imbalances  Impediments  structural  deficit  liquidity  trap  globalisation  globalization  flat  world  Gini  coefficient  social  cohesion  income  inequality  income  mobility  social  mobility  downward  mobility  disposable  income  academia  academics  fiscal  policy  monetary  policy  debtoverhang  Debt  Super  Cycle  sovereign  crisis  deleveraging  NPL  zombie  banks  business  investment  consumer  confidence  business  confidence  balance  sheet  recession  creditcrunch  Wall  Street  crony  capitalism  excess  Bailout  toobigtofail  TBTF  too  big  to  jail  unintended  consequences  equity  bubble  asset  bubble  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  OMT  TARP  LTRO  TLTRO  Funding  for  Lending  Scheme  IMF  BIS  Europe  UK  USA 
october 2014 by asterisk2a
EZB: Draghi kündigt Aufkaufprogramm für Kredite an - SPIEGEL ONLINE
Mit dem Plan reagiert Draghi auf die schwache Wirtschaftslage in der Eurozone. Länder wie Italien, Spanien oder Griechenland kommen - wenn überhaupt - nur sehr langsam aus der Krise. Die dortigen Banken vergeben seit Jahren immer weniger Kredite. Und selbst in großen Ländern wie Frankreich und Deutschland stagnierte die Wirtschaftsleistung zuletzt. Ausdruck findet das auch in der Inflationsstatistik: Die Verbraucherpreise in der Eurozone steigen kaum noch - im September lag die jährliche Teuerungsrate gerade mal noch bei 0,3 Prozent. Um die Wirtschaft in Schwung zu halten, sollen die Preise nach Vorstellungen der EZB aber eher um knapp zwei Prozent pro Jahr steigen. Deshalb versuchen Draghi und seine Kollegen seit Monaten, die Kreditvergabe der Banken zu steigern, um so Wirtschaftswachstum und Preisentwicklung anzutreiben.
ECB  MarioDraghi  monetary  policy  unconventional  monetary  policy  ABS  creditcrisis  creditcrunch  business  investment  monetary  transmission  mechanism  inflation  expectation  Europe  PIGS  NPL  deleveraging  balance  sheet  recession  debtoverhang  sovereign  debt  crisis  austerity  IMF  France  Germany  trade  balance  2014  recovery  GFC  stagflation  secular  stagnation  Richard  Koo  stagnation  Structural  Impediments  infrastructure  investment  unemployment  deficit  imbalance  faultlines  budget  deficit  fiscal  deficit  inflation  fiscal  policy  Pact  liquidity  trap  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  OMT  TLTRO  LTRO  zombie  banks  business  confidence  confidence  trust  trustagent  distortion  unintended  consequences  complexity  asset  bubble 
october 2014 by asterisk2a
BBC News - ECB cuts rates and launches stimulus programme
1-Day Before: http://youtu.be/_6D_xVeoIXs "ECB faces crunch on deflation threat" +++ The ECB has cut its benchmark interest rate to 0.05%, and introduced new stimulus measures. The ECB had earlier cut its rate from 0.25% to 0.15% in June, and also became the first major central bank to introduce negative interest rates. It will also launch an asset purchase programme, which will buy debt products from banks. It is hoped this move will add liquidity to the financial system and revive lending. [...] "[A] last roll of the dice". "The ECB has now almost exhausted its ammunition for preventing the Eurozone sliding into a devastating deflationary, contractionary spiral," +++ Analysis: http://youtu.be/IErml4SmKmE "European banks – Work those ABS" +++ bit.ly/1A6pmLU - France and Friends: Merkel Increasingly Isolated on Austerity "Europe ... is threatened with lasting weak growth should the deficit rules continue to be strictly interpreted. [ BuBa demands higher wages, ECB fiscal stimulus ]."
ABS  OMT  LTRO  ECB  monetary  transmission  mechanism  monetary  policy  unconventional  monetary  policy  austerity  PIGS  faultlines  Structural  Impediments  IMF  Germany  BuBa  deflation  deflationary  communication  zombie  banks  confidence  trustagent  trust  balance  sheet  recession  fiscal  policy  QE  bond  bubble  deleveraging  lost  decade  lost  generation  SME  SMB  Mittelstand  creditcrunch  creditcrisis  economic  history  debtoverhang  NPL  EuropeanSystemicRiskBoard  riskaversion  ZIRP  NIRP  negative  real  interest  rate  secular  stagnation  Makers  policy  error  policy  folly  Career  Politicians  inflation  expectation  stagnation  Betongold  Beton  Gold  hunt  for  yield  unintended  consequences  complexity  incomplete  information  France  liberal  economic  reform  Stability  Pact  Italy  academics  academia  deficit  budget  deficit  fiscal  deficit  wage  growth  wage  inflation  fiscal  stimulus  Wolfgang  Schäuble  Angela  Merkel  Sick  Man  of  Europe  infrastructure  investment  investment  business  investment  labor  market  reform  recovery 
september 2014 by asterisk2a
8 Reasons Why A New Global Financial Crisis Could Be On The Way - NASDAQ.com
Like any other bubble, it will only become one once it bursts. What is different in 2014 is that now central banks have a great tool to prevent real estate bubbles: Basel III and its countercyclical capital buffer. [...] Let us not forget the lessons of the Great War (we are now commemorating the 100-year anniversary): the butterfly effect can be deadly in politics. +++ http://ti.me/1r4NfEy "Raghuram Rajan, the governor of India's central bank, fears supereasy money from the world’s central banks is inflating assets and encouraging bad investments. [...] Long-term low interest rates and unorthodox programs to stimulate economies — like quantitative easing, or QE — could be laying the groundwork for more turmoil in financial markets, he argues. [...] With inflation not being strong, this can continue for some time until things are so stretched that any signs of inflation, and a rise in interest rates, could precipitate a fairly strong market reaction. Certainly [...] volatility hurts[.]
equity  bubble  asset  bubble  shadow  banking  China  Basel3  Basel  III  centralbanks  BIS  bubbles  bubble  butterfly  effect  unintended  consequences  complexity  unknown  unkown  unknown  unknowns  QE  ZIRP  hunt  for  yield  liquidity  trap  monetary  stimulus  monetary  policy  NIRP  negative  real  interest  rate  Raghuram  Rajan  zombie  banks  NPL  PIGS  geopolitics  Middle  East  ISIS  Islamic  State  Ukrain  Ukraine  radicalism  Putin  vladimirputin  Russia  Europe  USA  foreign  affairs  diplomacy  NATO  IMF  austerity  secular  stagnation  stagnation  deflation  deflationary  uncertainty  Wall  Street  volatility  Taper  distortion  trust  trustagent  confidence  BRIC  India  MINT  Frontier  Markets  Developing  World  emerging  market  flat  globalisation  globalization 
august 2014 by asterisk2a
Eurokrise: Angela Merkel betreibt riskante Rettung - SPIEGEL ONLINE
Es sind die inneren Widersprüche einer Währungsunion, die nur das sein will, aber nicht mehr, die uns jetzt einholen. Anstatt die Schuldenkrise durch eine Schuldenkonferenz zu lösen, verlagern wir das Problem, indem wir komplizierte Auffangschirme schaffen, die die Schulden lediglich von einer Ecke des Systems in die andere hinüberschieben. Das sieht gut aus, ändert aber an der Überschuldung von Griechenland und Portugal nicht einen Deut.
debt  jubilee  Super  Cycle  sovereign  debt  crisis  haircut  PIGS  Europe  Politics  Career  Politicians  policy  folly  policy  error  lost  generation  lost  decade  secular  stagnation  debtoverhang  deleveraging  NPL  balance  sheet  recession  greatrecession  greatdepression  2014  Germany  divergence  faultlines  global  imbalances  structural  imbalance  Impediments  structural  deficit  debt  restructuring  restructuring  infrastructure  investment  Leadership 
august 2014 by asterisk2a
Konjunktur in EU: Analyse des ersten Halbjahrs 2014 - SPIEGEL ONLINE
In anderen Euroländern dagegen ist die Lage bedenklich. Vor allem Frankreich und Italien, die nach Deutschland größten Volkswirtschaften des Währungsraums, haben große strukturelle Probleme. Und in Krisenstaaten wie Griechenland, Spanien und Portugal geht es dank schmerzhafter Spar- und Reformprogramme zwar inzwischen wieder leicht bergauf mit der Wirtschaft. Doch die Gefahr eines Rückfalls in die Krise ist noch immer groß. || http://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/unternehmen/eurostat-inflation-in-euro-laendern-sinkt-auf-rekordtief-a-986068.html - Neue Zahlen von der europäischen Statistikbehörde Eurostat: Die Inflation in den 18 Ländern im Euroraum ist so niedrig wie seit fast fünf Jahren nicht mehr. Das Wirtschaftswachstum kommt zum Stillstand. || + http://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/soziales/bip-deutsche-wirtschaft-schrumpft-um-0-2-prozent-a-986028.html + http://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/unternehmen/diw-chef-fratzscher-hoehere-loehne-und-konjunktur-a-986124.html "Investitionen!"
France  Germany  PIGS  Eurpope  sovereign  debt  crisis  2014  stagflation  secular  stagnation  stagnation  ECB  QE  ZIRP  NIRP  liquidity  trap  monetary  transmission  mechanism  creditcrunch  deleveraging  balance  sheet  recession  debtoverhang  Richard  Koo  economic  history  Structural  Impediments  imbalance  deficit  budget  deficit  liberal  economic  reform  NPL  zombie  banks  Career  Politicians  policy  folly  policy  error  monetary  policy  unconventional  monetary  policy  fiscal  policy  austerity  faultlines  divergence  Super  Cycle  lost  generation  lost  decade  debt  bubble  bond  bubble  hunt  for  yield  infrastructure  investment  investment  debt  monetization  debt  monetisation  haircut  debt  jubilee  debt  restructuring  public  debt  productivity  output  gap  corporatism  crony  capitalism  coward  risk  sentiment  risk  taking  creditrating  creditrisk  working  poor  Gini  coefficient  income  inequality  squeezed  middle  class  social  mobility  income  mobility  inequality 
august 2014 by asterisk2a
Gefahr durch Niedrigzinsen - YouTube
ZIRP  NIRP  QE  asset  bubble  speculative  bubbles  Wall  Street  bond  bubble  PIGS  Fed  ECB  BOJ  Abenomics  BOE  GFC  unintended  consequences  unknown  unknowns  Europe  UK  USA  monetary  policy  unconventional  monetary  policy  monetary  transmission  mechanism  risk  taking  EuropeanSystemicRiskBoard  creditrisk  hunt  for  yield  deflation  deflationary  secular  stagnation  2014  balance  sheet  recession  deleveraging  Betongold  Beton  Gold  debtoverhang  Debt  Super  Cycle  sovereign  crisis  property  bubble  Germany  monetization  monetisation  NPL  IBS  zombie  banks  recovery  greatrecession  Structural  Impediments  deficit  unemployment  imbalance  faultlines  output  gap  productivity 
august 2014 by asterisk2a
Wachstum schwach wegen Innovationen und Investitionen - SPIEGEL ONLINE
Die Währungsmanager stecken in einer unkomfortablen Lage: Die EZB erreicht das Ende ihrer Handlungsfähigkeit. Die kurzfristigen Zinsen hat sie bereits auf knapp über Null gesenkt, Einlagen bei der EZB werden sogar mit einer Strafgebühr geahndet. Mit ihrem neuen Programm zur zweckgebundenen Liquiditätsvergabe greift sie auch noch direkt ins Kreditgeschäft der Geschäftsbanken ein. Trotzdem erholt sich die Wirtschaft nur äußerst schleppend - mit dem Ausnahmefall DE. [...] Offenkundig befinden wir uns auf einem Abstellgleis der kapitalistischen Entwicklung. Derzeit ist die These von der "säkularen Stagnation" populär, von mehreren Dekaden mit niedrigem Wachstum, die vor uns liegen. Dazu scheinen die ultraniedrigen Zinsen in der EU, den USA und Japan zu passen. Aus diesem Blickwinkel zeigen langfristige Sätze nahe Null an, dass es kaum noch sinnvolle Investitionsmöglichkeiten gibt - dass zu wenige Unternehmen existieren, die ordentliche Renditen versprechen. [have to build pillars 4 future]
ECB  liquidity  trap  ZIRP  NIRP  hunt  for  yield  Germany  Europe  Structural  Impediments  imbalance  PIGS  BuBa  monetary  policy  unintended  consequences  NPL  unknown  unknowns  complexity  monetary  transmission  mechanism  sovereign  debt  crisis  Super  Cycle  Richard  Koo  balance  sheet  recession  debtoverhang  deleveraging  economic  history  USA  Japan  UK  Fed  BOE  productivity  output  gap  Future  of  Work  Mobile  Creative  Mobile  Creatives  working  poor  squeezed  middle  class  Gini  coefficient  social  mobility  income  mobility  income  inequality  1%  Super  Rich  secular  stagnation  stagnation  deflation  deflationary  infrastructure  investment  investment  climate  change  Energiewende  knowledge  worker  long-term  thinking  long-term  view  Berlin  Start-Up  Scene  Silicon  Valley  Europe  Start-Up  Scene  education  policy  Makers  policy  folly  policy  error  Career  Politicians  Beton  Gold  Betongold  demographic  bubble  speculative  bubbles  equity  bubble  property  bubble  bond  bubble 
august 2014 by asterisk2a
DIW-Chef Fratzscher zu Banken-Stresstest, Lohnerhöhung - SPIEGEL ONLINE
Die Abhängigkeit zwischen Banken und Staaten hat in den letzten Jahren besorgniserregend zugenommen. Die berechtigte Sorge ist daher, dass Bankenrettungen die Staatshaushalte der hochverschuldeten Eurostaaten überfordert. Dann könnten wir leicht wieder in eine Krisensituation wie im Sommer 2012 geraten, als die Anleihezinsen für viele Eurostaaten drastisch nach oben geschossen sind. [...] Die größte Herausforderung für Europa ist, Wachstum zu schaffen. Nur durch ein deutlich stärkeres Wachstum kann es gelingen, dass die Unternehmen Beschäftigte einstellen, die Banken faule Kredite abbauen und die Staaten ihre Finanzen in Ordnung bringen. [...] [ +see end - Income Growth across the board in Germany Needed. Recent 2017 wage floor/minimum wage was overdue. Overdue. ]
GDP  Europe  zombie  banks  PIGS  NPL  non-performing  loan  balance  sheet  recession  debtoverhang  Richard  Koo  Japan  economic  history  debt  jubilee  lost  decade  lost  generation  Super  Cycle  ECB  liquidity  trap  history  GFC  greatrecession  greatdepression  2014  infrastructure  investment  underemployed  structural  unemployment  long-term  unemployment  youth  unemployment  unemployment  Germany  France  faultlines  Impediments  structural  imbalance  structural  deficit  budget  deficit  fiscal  deficit  tradedeficit  trade  deficit  academia  academics  policy  error  policy  folly  fiscal  policy  monetary  policy  ZIRP  NIRP  OMT  QE  monetary  transmission  mechanism  deleveraging  Politics  Career  Politicians  ownership  accountability  transparency  Bundesbank  BuBa  income  growth  minimum  wage  wage  floor  coldprogression  kalte  Progression 
july 2014 by asterisk2a
Zinsentscheid der EZB: Draghi plant Minus vor Zinssatz - SPIEGEL ONLINE
Schon immer ließ sich das Ende eines Systems besonders schwer erkennen, wenn man Teil des Systems ist. Im Jahre sieben nach Ausbruch der Finanzkrise ist es langsam Zeit für die Frage: Was, wenn die vermeintliche Ausnahme in Wahrheit die Regel ist? Wenn es sich bei der Kombination aus niedrigen Zinsen, niedrigem Wachstum und niedriger Inflation, die weite Teile Europa seit 2008 ebenso im Griff hält wie die USA und Japan, um die neue Normalität handelt? Wenn das seit Jahrzehnten praktizierte westliche Wirtschaftsmodell, sich immer niedrigere Wachstumsraten mit immer höheren Staatsschulden zu erkaufen, an seinem Schlusspunkt angelangt ist? +++ http://bit.ly/SxhnZq "Nicht Europa ist am Ende - sondern der Kapitalismus, so wie wir ihn kennen. [...] Im angelsächsischen Finanzkapitalismus wachsen die Vermögen der Reichen und stagnieren die Einkommen der anderen." [...] [EU Election Result is a vote] gegen das ungerechte Wirtschaftssystem, das ihre Lebensgrundlage gefährdet.
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june 2014 by asterisk2a
EZB senkt Leitzins und beschließt Minuszinsen für Banken - SPIEGEL ONLINE
Die Europäische Zentralbank (EZB) hat ihren Leitzins auf ein Rekordtief gesenkt und erstmals einen negativen Einlagensatz beschlossen. Angesichts der zuletzt sehr niedrigen Inflationsrate wird der Zins, zu dem sich die Geschäftsbanken bei der Notenbank Geld leihen können, um 0,10 Punkte auf 0,15 Prozent gesenkt, wie die EZB am Donnerstag nach ihrer Ratssitzung in Frankfurt mitteilte. Der Einlagensatz, zu dem Banken kurzfristig Geld bei der Notenbank parken können, wird erstmals in den negativen Bereich gedrückt. Er sinkt von bisher null Prozent auf minus 0,10 Prozent. Der Zins für kurzfristige Ausleihungen bei der Notenbank vermindert sich von 0,75 auf 0,40 Prozent. + http://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/unternehmen/ezb-entscheidung-kredite-und-senkung-des-leitzins-a-973657.html ""Die Banken leiden nicht unter vermeintlich zu hohen Notenbankzinsen, sondern unter dem hohen Bestand fauler Kredite, an dem Negativzinsen nichts ändern." + !! http://youtu.be/kKO_yxP3dyQ !!
deflation  deflationary  monetary  transmission  mechanism  unconventional  monetary  policy  monetary  policy  macroprudential  policy  macroeconomics  macroeconomic  policy  ECB  MarioDraghi  BuBa  Bundesbank  2014  ZIRP  OMT  QE  debt  monetization  debt  monetisation  deposit  levy  New  Normal  financial  repression  zombie  banks  zombie  corporations  Super  Cycle  sovereign  debt  crisis  PIGS  Structural  Impediments  deficit  unemployment  imbalance  Europe  Germany  faultlines  recovery  policy  error  policy  folly  Makers  Career  Politicians  austerity  fiscal  policy  GFC  lost  decade  lost  generation  long-term  unemployment  banking  union  creditcrisis  creditcrunch  credit  crunch  2015  NPL  non-performing  loan  economic  history  LTRO  assetbackedsecurities  Sterilization 
june 2014 by asterisk2a
BBC News - Debt crisis will hurt millions, says think tank
Millions of UK households will face "perilous" levels of debt when interest rates begin to rise, according to a think tank focused on living standards. The number of people using more than half their disposable income to repay debt could rise from 600,000 to a 1.1 million by 2018 if interest rates rise to 3%, said the Resolution Foundation. If rates hit 5%, two million households would face huge repayments, it said. Mortgages are the largest source of UK household debt.
Debt  Super  Cycle  household  UK  private  consumer  mortage  property  bubble  housing  market  2013  ZIRP  QE  unintended  consequences  complexity  zombie  consumer  NPL  unconventional  monetary  policy  monetary  theory  BOE  Mark  Carney  NIRP  negative  real  interest  rate  hunt  for  yield 
december 2013 by asterisk2a
The Reason For China's Epic 1 Trillion Yuan Deleveraging: The Biggest Housing Bubble Ever | Zero Hedge
We shall see how much they approve when the massive deleveraging results in a 3% GDP print as we warned previously, crushing their year end bonuses in the process. [...] The country is about to undergo an unprecedented deleveraging that could amount to over CNY1 trillion in order to force reallocate capital in a more efficient basis. That's right: a massive deleveraging coming dead ahead in China just in time to shock the market still reeling from the threat of the Fed's tapering. [...] So there you have it: no matter what China has attempted, no matter how much it has punished the Shanghai Composite, it has been completely unable to offset the endogenous and/or exogenous (Fed, ECB, BOJ hot money) credit from sending the Chinese housing bubble into absolutely stratospheric levels. [...] http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/banksandfinance/10164580/Chinese-banking-a-Wild-West-in-the-Far-East.html
currency  debasement  real  estate  bubble  monetary  policy  currency  war  capital  allocation  stimulus  unintended  consequences  zombie  banks  fiscal  stimulus  BOE  banking  crisis  negative  real  interest  rate  ECB  shadow  economy  BOJ  bank  crisis  creditcrisis  hot  money  China  credit  bubble  banking  system  NIRP  2013  recession  Fed  shadowbanking  economic  history  NPL  shadow  banking  fiscal  policy  bubbles  property  bubble  creditcrunch  bad  bank  ZIRP  USA  Taper  zombie  bank  deleveraging  toobigtofail  PBOC  Muddy  Waters  Research  faultlines 
july 2013 by asterisk2a
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