asterisk2a + ltro   79

"Deutsche Bank Poses The Greatest Risk To The Global Financial System": IMF
via Keister Report - https://youtu.be/fbh3rndGDN8 // a Italian banking crisis could topple them. that is why they (their economist) called for a EU bank bailout (shore up). //&! IMF Warns Of "Global Contagion" From Italy's Bank Crisis; Forecasts Two-Decade Long Recession - http://bit.ly/29sFINn - [...] "Unless asset quality and profitability problems are addressed in a timely manner, lingering problems of weaker banks can eventually weigh on the rest of the system," //&! http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-07-09/charting-epic-collapse-worlds-most-systemically-dangerous-bank //&! Analyst Warns Deutsche Bank's Problems May Now Be "Insurmountable" - http://bit.ly/29LwUjv - [...] we believe DBK is still over 40x levered. [...] Seeking outside capital is also likely to be difficult as management would likely find it hard to offer any type of return on new capital invested. //&! its known balance sheet - http://bit.ly/29usGKG - 1.74 trillion balance sheet!
Italy  Germany  derivatives  Deutsche  Bank  BuBa  BaFin  Wolfgang  Schäuble  Angela  Merkel  investment  banking  systemic  risk  systemicrisk  systemrelevant  systemrelevanz  European  Bank  Supervision  stresstest  contagion  repo  trust  sovereign  debt  crisis  PIGS  Greece  Brexit  non-performing  loan  zombie  banks  zombie  austerity  secular  stagnation  recession  ECB  MarioDraghi  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  hunt  for  yield  asset  allocation  distortion  OMT  LTRO  Basel  III  Basel3  leverage  banking  union  Bank  Oversight  banking  crisis  banking  system  interbank  lending  overnight  deposit  facility 
july 2016 by asterisk2a
Geographies of Austerity: Mark Blyth
EU bank bailout (incl Britain) = 40% of EU GDP (incl Britain) = 5 trillion Euros. AUSTERITY FOR WHOM?! // secular stagnation - ZIRP, NIRP, QE, austerity, liquidity trap, aggregate demand short-fall = creditors paradise. their debt will not be inflated away. deflation - deflationary environment. for the next 2-3 decades. = NO DRIVE TO INVEST IN PRODUCTIVE ASSETS! = productivity gap. [...] rentier paradise. [...] = interest formation (those who have, call the shots, status quo). [...] deflationary spiral (PIGS & Germany) exporting deflation ... getting more competitive [EU has 2015 a current account surplus, bought my USA] = Dr Wolfgang Schaeuble. [...] Fall of Centrists, rise of the SNP & UKIP (reactionary) ... Trump. [...] as investment rate (ie SME/SMB lending) stays same, does not grow = DEAD. Eurobonds/Investment Fund(UK, 5bn 5 years). [...] min 55 - deflationary politics (policy for 1-10-20% of society) is one way train. DEATH. especially w austerity and low wages/secular stagnation.
austerity  Tories  Conservative  Party  nasty  general  election  2010  general  election  2015  George  Osborne  Iain  Duncan  Smith  David  Cameron  Ed  Miliband  economic  history  Mark  Blyth  book  Richard  Koo  welfare  state  welfare  reform  bank  bailout  GFC  recovery  secular  stagnation  IMF  ChristineLagarde  Salami  Tactics  aggregate  demand  aggregate  demand  short-fall  liquidity  trap  fiscal  policy  Confidence  Fairy  monetary  policy  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  Tony  Blair  Gordon  Brown  European  Union  Euro  ECB  BOJ  PIGS  Pact  Schuldenbremse  Wolfgang  Schäuble  Angela  Merkel  Career  Politicians  politician  zombie  bank  zombie  banks  banking  systemic  risk  OMT  LTRO  MarioDraghi  trichet  BOE  deflation  deflationary  productivity  productivity  gap  productive  investment  underinvestment  infrastructure  investment  infrastructure  rentier  rent-seeking  Mark  Carney  Donald  Trump  business  consumer  TLTRO  non-performing  loan  NPL  Jens  Weidmann 
july 2016 by asterisk2a
What Happens Next (In Europe)?
the odds of another crisis are higher than a rally to fresh records. [...]
“The 2009-2015 rally originated from two main drivers: a massive stimulus, and credit expansion in China,” said Goette, who’s a partner at his firm in Zug, Switzerland and helps oversee 1 billion Swiss francs ($1 billion).

“European earnings have not followed suit so far. Skepticism regarding central-bank operations has started to emerge.”
ECB  Brussels  recovery  reflate  reflation  China  credit  bubble  Germany  PIGS  zombie  banks  European  Bank  Supervision  European  Economic  Area  European  Election  2014  working  poor  squeezed  middle  class  Soziale  Marktwirtschaft  MarioDraghi  OMT  LTRO  monetary  policy  monetary  stimulus  Fiscal  Pact  Schuldenbremse  sovereign  debt  crisis  France  Brexit  Grexit  Angela  Merkel  Wolfgang  Schäuble  history  underinvestment  Richard  Koo  Yanis  Varoufakis  liquidity  trap  zombie  corporations  youth  unemployment  demographic  bubble  OAP  discretionary  spending  disposable  income  liberal  reform  Precariat  precarious  employment  low  pay  low  income  Minijob  Zeitarbeit  Leiharbeit  1  Euro  Job  Structural  Impediments  imbalance  unemployment  monetary  transmission  mechanism  monetary  union  union  Rechtsruck  Bundesbank  fault  lines  shareholder  capitalism  bailout  GFC  2016  PBOC  Exportweltmeister  zombie  Financial  Stability  Board  crony  capitalism  Deutsche  Bank  infrastructure  investment  competitiveness  Beton  Gold  Betongold  asset  allocation  Super  Rich  1%  oligarchy  plutocracy  democracy  tax  evasion  tax  avoidance  Wall  Street  shareholder  value  profit  maximisation  profit  maximization  Russia  Crimea  Ukraine  U 
april 2016 by asterisk2a
ECB reveals surprise stimulus moves - BBC News
[C]ut its main interest rate from 0.05% to 0% as part of a package of measures intended to revive the eurozone economy.
The bank will also expand its quantitative easing programme from €60bn to €80bn a month.
The ECB also decided to further cut its bank deposit rate, from minus 0.3% to minus 0.4%.
The measures, including the decision to cut the main interest rate, were more radical than investors had expected. John Hardy, head of currency strategy at Saxo Bank, said: "This was a much bigger bazooka than the market was expecting and shows the ECB trying to get ahead of the confidence curve after learning its lesson in December."
The stimulus measures announced three months ago have largely failed to drive economic growth higher or boost inflation. //&! bit.ly/1TP0XJJ - Volles Risiko &! bit.ly/1P8hncF &! bit.ly/1RCF3Tp &! Market Reaction - bit.ly/1LeOrjo &! bit.ly/1RTBJ95 - no investment bc aggregate demand not rising //&! bbc.in/225Eexl
ECB  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  OMT  inflation  targeting  LTRO  TLTRO  deflation  secular  stagnation  deflationary  Oil  price  commodity  prices  squeezed  middle  class  demographic  bubble  zombie  banks  global  economy  Richard  Koo  liquidity-trap  liquidity  trap  underinvestment  aggregate  demand  distortion 
march 2016 by asterisk2a
German Banks Told To Start Hoarding Cash | Zero Hedge
In order to generate artificial economic growth, the ECB wants banks to make as many loans as possible, no matter how stupid or idiotic. They believe that economic growth is simply a function of loans. The more money that’s loaned out, the more the economy will grow. This is the sort of theory that works really well in an economic textbook. But it doesn’t work so well in a history textbook. Cheap money encourages risky behavior. It gives banks an incentive to give ‘no money down’ loans to homeless people with no employment history. It creates bubbles (like the housing bubble from 10 years ago), and ultimately, financial panics (like the banking crisis from 8 years ago). Banks are supposed to be conservative, responsible managers of other people’s money. When central bank policies penalize that practice, bad things tend to happen.
Richard  Koo  aggregate  demand  austerity  fiscal  policy  Pact  Schuldenbremse  economic  history  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  distortion  financial  repression  hunt  for  yield  speculative  bubbles  speculative  speculation  Venture  Capital  Mutual  Fund  Private  Equity  reflate  reflation  recovery  GFC  debtoverhang  liquidity  trap  zombie  banks  deleveraging  Debt  Super  Cycle  secular  stagnation  consumer  wage  stagnation  squeezed  middle  class  disposable  income  discretionary  spending  marginal  propensity  to  consume  tax  evasion  tax  avoidance  oligarchy  plutocracy  Super  Rich  1%  household  car  loan  credit  card  student  loan  student  loan  student  Bubble  generation  rent  OMT  job  creation  Service  Sector  Jobs  working  poor  precarious  work  Precariat  Zero  Hour  Contract  Contractor  Leiharbeit  Zeitarbeit  Agenda  2010  low  pay  low  income  TLTRO  LTRO  monetary  transmission  mechanism  velocity  of  money 
march 2016 by asterisk2a
Energy price slump sends eurozone into deflation - BBC News
Energy drove the decline, with prices down 8% in February compared to a 5.4% slide in January. The dismal figures have dashed hopes that ECB efforts to boost prices were working. That raises the chance of the bank announcing further stimulus measures next month. It has already announced a cut to its bank deposit rate, which remains in negative territory. ECB chief Mario Draghi insisted earlier this month the policies were working. [...] The Group of 20 (G20) finance ministers and central bankers agreed on Saturday to use "all policy tools, monetary, fiscal and structural - individually and collectively" to renew growth. //&! Eurozone economy grows 1.5% in 2015 - 12 February 2016 &! Eurozone growth forecast cut to 1.7% - 4 February 2016
Europe  European  Union  deflationary  deflation  Fiscal  Pact  zombie  banks  liquidity  trap  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  ECB  MarioDraghi  monetary  policy  Richard  Koo  Angela  Merkel  Wolfgang  Schäuble  monetary  transmission  mechanism  Schuldenbremse  austerity  2016  economic  history  recovery  secular  stagnation  demographic  bubble  ageing  population  babyboomers  Germany  policy  OMT  TLTRO  LTRO  George  Osborne  G20  UK  sovereign  debt  crisis  PIGS  Japan  Abenomics  BOJ  BOE  Mark  Carney 
march 2016 by asterisk2a
From Ticker - S&P: QE is driving inequality between the generations
Quantitative easing (QE) stabilized the economy but also exacerbated wealth disparity between rich and poor, mainly by boosting financial asset prices and house prices. //&! [ LOW PAY MINIMUM WAGE JOB CREATION ] During the U.K.’s recent “jobs-rich, pay-poor” economic recovery, strong employment gains were accompanied by a further rise of already high wage dispersion and an ever-growing share of part-time employment in lower income groups. //&! In the context of the tight housing market, low interest rates and QE are among the drivers behind the widening wealth and income gap between younger and older generations and between those on the housing ladder and those not on it. //&! Inequality is damaging! // bit.ly/1QtauyZ - Bank of England's recovery policies have increased inequality, finds S&P [...] spending too much on rent, not able to save for deposit! //&! bit.ly/1PPyEYl &! ti.me/1sbBtrz
QE  inequality  reflate  reflation  distortion  recovery  job  creation  Service  Sector  Jobs  UK  USA  fiscal  policy  monetary  policy  monetary  stimulus  unconventional  monetary  policy  Fed  BOE  bank  bailout  zombie  banks  zombie  consumer  zombie  corporations  ZIRP  NIRP  TARP  TLTRO  LTRO  ECB  equity  bubble  asset  bubble  property  bubble  Housing  Crisis  Help  to  Buy  Scheme  Help  to  Save  Right  to  Buy  income  inequality  Gini  coefficient  social  mobility  income  mobility  budget  deficit  austerity  George  Osborne  income  distribution  poverty  trap  tax  credit  low  pay  low  income  squeezed  middle  class  Precariat  Zero  Hour  Contract  Contractor  part-time  Tories  nasty  party  homeless  homelessness  social  affordable  Conservative  Toff  Privileged  Establishment  Funding  discretionary  spending  disposable  income  household  debt  consumer  debt  credit  card  debt  student  loan  debt  student  loan  student  debt  debt  servitude  economic  history 
february 2016 by asterisk2a
What's holding back the world economy? | Business | The Guardian
[ continued financialisation of economy / faustian pact ] QE and low interest rates have disproportionately created wealth in the financial sector and inflated asset bubbles. It has done little for the real economy. The rules of the market need to be rewritten [...] dominant policies during the post-crisis period – fiscal retrenchment and quantitative easing (QE) by major central banks – have offered little support to stimulate household consumption, investment, and growth. On the contrary, they have tended to make matters worse. In the US, quantitative easing did not boost consumption and investment partly because most of the additional liquidity returned to central banks’ coffers in the form of excess reserves. [...] private investment did not grow [...] [ QE supported only financial sector and zombie banks and corporations, little to nothing went into the real economy for investment in western world ] [ which leads us to say we are still in a banking crisis per se ]
Joseph  Stiglitz  secular  stagnation  reflate  reflation  austerity  QE  ZIRP  NIRP  TARP  TLTRO  LTRO  zombie  banks  zombie  corporations  zombie  consumer  Richard  Koo  consumer  debt  household  debt  car  loan  credit  card  debt  Student  Bubble  loan  debt  disposable  income  discretionary  spending  squeezed  middle  class  Precariat  low  pay  low  income  wage  stagnation  income  growth  USA  UK  Europe  western  world  mortgage  market  NPL  debt  servitude  underinvestment  productive  investment  infrastructure  investment  economic  history  policy  folly  policy  error  corporate  welfare  tax  evasion  tax  avoidance  Gini  coefficient  income  distribution  social  mobility  income  mobility  poverty  trap  inequality  recovery  job  creation  Service  Sector  Jobs  distortion  financial  repression  speculative  bubbles  hunt  for  yield  asset  equity  VIX  volatility  Help  to  Buy  Scheme  monetary  policy  liquidity  trap  fiscal  policy  debtoverhang  deleveraging  balance  sheet  recession  consumer  confidence  business  confidence  business  investment  productivity  output  gap  aggregate  demand  income  redistribution  repo  monetary  transmission  mechanism  monetary  system  financial  market  GFC  banking  crisis  retail  banking  investment  banking  hot-money  Frontier  Markets  emerging  market  BRIC  rent-seeking  rentier  carbon  tax  economic  damage 
february 2016 by asterisk2a
Adam Posen: What Japan and the UK Demonstrate about Macroeconomic Stimulus - YouTube
Confidence Fairy - Paul Krugman. (sov debt crisis) only applicable if you don't have a central bank. like Greece. that can do QE as much as you need to stabilise monetary system. ie stop deleveraging, only serving debt. meaning deflation. // different QE, diversity. shift risk appetite to more riskier debt. ... // fiscal activism can't overcome austerity ... // UK has it work because it doesn't have the manufacturing base. but its population is growing, not shrinking. but job creation - multiplier to economy is 1 or lower because of mostly service sector job creation which lot need to access welfare state through tax credits. // min 11. Gordon Brown and Alistair Darling did lots right! GPB depreciation. budget deficit growth. But imports stayed high!!! current account deficit and trade deficit. Austerity undermines growth and BOE policy! cut you future and investment (4-1 ration). UK got no credibility bonus from bond vigilantes, no FDI inflows.
Abenomics  economic  history  secular  stagnation  UK  austerity  Japan  BOE  BOJ  Mark  Carney  deflationary  deflation  demographic  bubble  ageing  population  migration  immigration  Sozialpolitik  Integrationspolitik  Paul  Krugman  JGB  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  liquidity  trap  balance  sheet  recession  Richard  Koo  deleveraging  ECB  TLTRO  LTRO  debt  monetisation  debt  monetization  monetary  policy  monetary  transmission  mechanism  monetary  stimulus  monetary  theory  unconventional  monetary  policy  monetary  system  financial  repression  distortion  speculative  bubbles  creditrating  creditrisk  junk  bond  NPL  credit  bubble  recovery  George  Osborne  Fiscal  Pact  Schuldenbremse  Super  Cycle  sovereign  debt  crisis  debtoverhang  currency-war  currency  debasement  currency  war  current  account  deficit  trade  deficit  IMF  OBR  foreign  direct  investment  Conservative  Party  nasty  fairness  Generationengerechtigkeit  policy  folly  policy  error 
january 2016 by asterisk2a
Europäische Zentralbank weitet Anleihenkäufe aus - Dax bricht ein - SPIEGEL ONLINE
Die Europäische Zentralbank öffnet die Geldschleusen noch weiter. Ihr umstrittenes Anleihenkaufprogramm soll mindestens sechs Monate länger laufen als geplant. Anleger reagieren enttäuscht: Der Dax bricht zeitweise um mehr als drei Prozent ein. //&! Die EZB hat den sogenannten Einlagensatz von minus 0,2 auf minus 0,3 Prozent gesenkt. Damit wird es für Banken noch teurer, überschüssiges Geld bei der Zentralbank zu parken. - bit.ly/1NsvwjS
ECB  QE  TLTRO  LTRO  2015  ZIRP  NIRP 
december 2015 by asterisk2a
Blackrock-Vize Hildebrand kritisiert europäische Behörden - SPIEGEL ONLINE
Hildebrand: Nein, dafür sehe ich keine Anzeichen. Aber was mich schon besorgt, ist das Muster, dass frappantes Fehlverhalten europäischer Firmen immer wieder von amerikanischen Behörden aufgedeckt wird. Das scheint mir das wahre Problem zu sein. Ich denke da nicht nur an VW, sondern auch an die Banken oder an die Fifa. [...] Die Amerikaner dagegen sind das Problem schon 2009 angegangen, und die Banken sind schnell wieder gesundet. In Europa hat man es unter den Teppich gekehrt. [...] Europa hat zwei Probleme, und ein wesentliches davon ist ein Nachfrageproblem: Die Wirtschaft ist nicht ausgelastet, auch die Arbeitslosigkeit ist nach wie vor zu hoch. Und die Inflation liegt nahe null. [...] Europa hat auch ein Strukturproblem. Arbeits- und Produktmärkte sind überreguliert. [ Re Credit Bubble ] Niemand weiß genau, was geschieht, wenn diese Politik einmal umgekehrt wird.
VW  bank  bailout  FIFA  corporate  scandal  Volkswagen  sovereign  debt  crisis  too  big  to  bail  Grexit  European  Union  secular  stagnation  self-regulation  regulation  regulators  deregulation  accountability  white-collar  crime  banking  investment  banking  retail  banking  recovery  MarioDraghi  ECB  NIRP  ZIRP  TLTRO  LTRO  QE  GFC  economic  history  debtoverhang  Richard  Koo  fiscal  monetary  Brussels  lost  decade  lostgeneration  lost  generation  Generationengerechtigkeit  austerity  Pact  Schuldenbremse  underinvestment  productive  investment  ageing  population  demographic  bubble  squeezed  middle  class  emerging  middle  class  discretionary  spending  Sozialer  Abstieg  income  distribution  disposable  income  Brexit  credit  bubble  BRIC  emerging  market  Developing  World  western  Niall  Ferguson 
november 2015 by asterisk2a
In the loop October 2: Flemish separatism, F1 and the Juncker plan by POLITICO Europe
min 17 - behind-the-scenes fight in the European Parliament over the appointment of top managers for the so-called Juncker Plan: a €315 billion EU investment plan. // threat of White Elephants, roads and bridges to nowhere ... only politicians can put themselves in front of photojournalists for photo op. no productive investments into the future. renewable, smart grid, private public paternerships, carbon emission reduction projects ie urbanisation planning projects to half city traffic and put cycling network in place, and zero emission public transportation, ... --- no accountability, no oversight no transparency. risk of corruption, bribery, dirty handshakes, ...
European  Union  technocrat  bureaucrat  Jean-Claude  Juncker  infrastructure  investment  STEM  Research  R&D  underinvestment  fiscal  policy  Pact  fiscal  stimulus  public  investment  business  investment  Schuldenbremse  Politics  Career  Politicians  No  Representation  Brussels  European  Parliament  European  Election  2014  European  Commission  Eurobond  PIGS  PIIGSFB  Richard  Koo  secular  stagnation  Niall  Ferguson  Germany  Angela  Merkel  Wolfgang  Schäuble  Eurogroup  austerity  Grexit  business  confidence  consumer  confidence  excess  reserves  zombie  banks  zombie  corporations  zombie  consumer  ECB  QE  TLTRO  LTRO  monetary  policy  monetary  transmission  mechanism  monetary  stimulus  liquidity  trap  ZIRP  NIRP  corruption  ideology  dogma  campaign  promises  White  Elephant  productive  investment  productivity  Makers  policy  folly  social  contract  political  theory  accountability  transparency  oversight  2015 
october 2015 by asterisk2a
The Draghi Put - YouTube
Draghi Put &! bit.ly/1fQ2lcq // &! bloom.bg/1Euf6peh // &! Mark Blyth Mackenzie Lecture 2015 – Austerity and the Politics of Money - youtu.be/B6vV8_uQmxs --- u cant make them lend (banks) 2 businesses (productive investment, closing productivity & output gap) particularly in a deflationary world with secular stagnation tendencies/signs, with non-existent inflation expectations! liquidity trap! dont get into higher growth path/gear! and infrastructure bonds (= Eurobond) on EU level wont help very much. !New Normal is lower yield avg across assets (public) & economic growth average p/a of abt 1.2-1.4% Add demographic bubble/ageing population = less consumerism, less disposable income/discretionary spending on aggregate, Piketty (book) removed technology as growth multiplier in some chapters & then you really come to <2% p/a long-run growth predictions for EU/western world. <2% growth p/a at >90% debt2gdp u have a problem! == Rechtsruck &or Anti-Austerity. Political tail-risk!
Draghi  Put  ECB  ELA  TLTRO  LTRO  QE  ZIRP  NIRP  liquidity  trap  distortion  bond  bubble  asset  bubble  equity  bubble  reflate  reflation  financial  repression  asset  allocation  speculative  bubbles  deflationary  deflation  inflation  expectation  inflation  targeting  MarioDraghi  monetary  transmission  mechanism  M3  monetary  policy  monetary  stimulus  monetary  theory  hot-money  hunt  for  yield  debt  monetisation  debt  monetization  trust  devaluation  currency  debasement  currency-war  fiat  currency  trustagent  distrust  Richard  Koo  fiscal  stimulus  austerity  fiscal  policy  balance  sheet  recession  deleveraging  debt  servitude  Super  Cycle  Mark  Blyth  inequality  New  Normal  economic  history  underinvestment  productive  investment  infrastructure  investment  output  gap  productivity  UK  Europe  Germany  PIIGSFB  zombie  banks  Thomas  Piketty  demographic  bubble  ageing  population  economic  growth  Rechtsruck  SNP  European  Election  2014  UKIP  AfD  NPD  Conservative  Party  Tories  Establishment  Privileged  babyboomers  Lügenpresse  manufactured  consent  PR  spin  doctor  propaganda  populism  Labour  Party  Career  Politicians  No  Representation  social  contract  Generationengerechtigkeit  fairness  poverty  Gini  poverty  policy  coef 
august 2015 by asterisk2a
Richard Koo: "Out of the Balance Sheet Recession and into QE 'Trap'" - YouTube
Released new book end of 2014. // Banks unable to lend money 2 unwilling (eligible) customers. Money remains on the private banks (&Central Banks in form of bonds) balance sheets/books & mostly allocated towards parking it overnight @Central Banks deposit facility (thus ECB put up a deposit levy, late into the game) or liquid fairly un(der)productive investment classes like gov bonds. // Companies (& people ie 4 education/housing) borrowing & investing (into the future, that is uncertain, unknown, deflationary)!? // 19:30 Even Abenomics is not working. Bc trauma towards Debt! behavioural economics: experience of debt servitude on less income, additional uncertainty & distrust! // Lowering corporate tax rate (like George Osborne) does not help. // Persistent low inflation expectations. // Taper extremely difficult: 2.5trn excess in long bonds. Unknown territory. Possibly future higher interest rates than fnd economic growth does warrant - adding to output gap & new normal.
2015  UK  USA  liquidity  trap  QE  ZIRP  NIRP  balance  sheet  recession  deleveraging  debtoverhang  Japan  Fed  BOE  BOJ  GFC  recovery  austerity  economic  history  economic  model  academia  deflationary  monetary  transmission  mechanism  M3  LTRO  TLTRO  lost  decade  lost  generation  fiscal  policy  monetary  policy  Career  Politicians  bond  bubble  equity  bubble  property  bubble  negative  real  interest  rate  deposit  levy  economic  growth  trickle-down  economics  secular  stagnation  headwinds  Great  Depression  PIIGSFB  PIGS  macroeconomic  policy  microeconomic  policy  economic  damage  behavioral  economics  zombie  banks  Abenomics  squeezed  middle  class  wage  growth  wage  stagnation  cash  flow  cash  flow  management  trust  distrust  long-term  view  long-term  thinking  sovereign  debt  crisis  debt  servitude  household  debt  debt  monetisation  debt  monetization  Super  Cycle  student  loan  debt  private  debt  consumer  debt  student  debt  George  Osborne  David  Cameron  competitiveness  competitive  industrial  policy  budget2015  business  investment  infrastructure  investment  demographic  bubble  uncertainty  Sozialer  Abstieg  disposable  income  discretionary  spending  Yen  JGB  Taper  greatrecession  USD  dogma  ideology  public  investment  short-term  thinking  short-term  view  productivity  output  gap  underinvestment  productive  investment  book  rate  private  savi 
july 2015 by asterisk2a
Griechenland: Was Angela Merkel noch alles angeboten hat - SPIEGEL ONLINE
Für den Fall, dass Tsipras die Verlängerung des aktuellen zweiten Hilfspakets zu den veränderten Konditionen akzeptiert hätte, bot Merkel ihm dem Vernehmen nach in einem letzten Gespräch am Freitag vergangener Woche unter anderem Folgendes an: ein drittes Hilfsprogramm, Schuldenerleichterungen, also eine teilweise Umschuldung, Investitionen in Höhe von rund 35 Milliarden Euro. // BUT NO debt jubilee/haircut and admitting that it was a EU bank bailout through the back door. // Counter-off on day 0 from Syriza; ESM to take on debt for two years. Another delay. Country will NOT start to grow in two years to pay off EFSF and IMF ... bit.ly/1Nsrupr &! IMF pushes back on default scenario - bit.ly/1NsrpSz &! Germany paid 85bn to EU banks (aka Greece Debt payments via EFSF, IMF and ECB ELA liability and bonds that ECB bought via their bank refinance programms (LTRO) via BuBa capital ownership of ECB) in case of default - bit.ly/1Hrx4ra // &! bbc.in/1Knh8qM &! bbc.in/1Knh8qM
Grexit  default  IMF  EFSF  Angela  Merkel  PIGS  Wolfgang  Schäuble  European  Union  Career  Politicians  economic  history  sovereign  debt  crisis  zombie  banks  GFC  recovery  Great  Depression  Greece  austerity  Troika  ECB  Syriza  democracy  solidarity  political  error  political  economy  political  folly  policy  error  policy  folly  ESM  ELA  BuBa  Bundesbank  LTRO  TLTRO  MarioDraghi  Jean-Claude  Juncker 
june 2015 by asterisk2a
US-Ratingagentur Standard & Poor's: Rundumschlag gegen europäische Banken - SPIEGEL ONLINE
Die amerikanische Ratingagentur Standard & Poor's hält viele europäische Geldhäuser für weniger kreditwürdig. Die Bonitätswächter stuften die Deutsche Bank um zwei Noten zurück. Sie liegt nun nur noch knapp über Ramschniveau. [...] Hintergrund des Rundumschlags sind die neuen EU-Regeln, wonach Banken nicht mehr wie in der Finanzkrise darauf zählen können, vom Staat gerettet zu werden. Aus diesem Grund hatte Mitte Mai bereits die Ratingagentur Fitch die Kreditwürdigkeit mehrerer Banken herabgestuft. [ vs USA which has no no-bailout law. ]
EuropeanSystemicRiskBoard  zombie  banks  Europe  PIGS  Grexit  Brexit  sovereign  debt  crisis  austerity  Fiscal  Pact  Schuldenbremse  Angela  Merkel  Wolfgang  Schäuble  IMF  Troika  economic  history  GFC  recovery  ZIRP  NIRP  TLTRO  LTRO  debt  monetisation  debt  monetization  ECB  policy  monetary  policy  toobigtofail  TBTF  investment  banking  bailout  systemicrisk  banking  crisis  banking  union  sovereignty  Gramny  France 
june 2015 by asterisk2a
Staatsanleihen und Zinsen: Kommt der nächste Crash? - SPIEGEL ONLINE
Oil price recovery (with eventual future supply shortage because of lack of investment in 2014/15/16), + USA Taper possibility end of 15 early 16 + UK Taper possibility mid to late 16 + End of ECB QE in 2016 due to defeat of deflation scenario (indicators) + People go into higher yielding assets which are still safe. // Hier ist eine Vorhersage: Sollten die Zinsen stark steigen, wäre das der Auslöser für das nächste ökonomische Desaster. Dann würden reihenweise Unternehmen, Privatbürger und ganze Staaten in die Pleite rutschen. // some companies have not used the time 2 reduce debt level, just pushed out the maturity, UK consumer debt & mortgage debt risen since 09/10 - default risk rises with market rates rising, UK Taper & lack luster income growth. // Die Notenbanken, vor allem die EZB, werden deshalb alles daran setzen, einen starken Anstieg zu verhindern. Dass es zwischenzeitlich zu heftigen Anfällen von Nervosität kommt, können sie allerdings nicht unterbinden.
bond  bubble  Taper  Oil  price  2015  asset  allocation  distortion  QE  ZIRP  NIRP  TLTRO  LTRO  Fed  BOJ  ECB  BOE  Europe  UK  USA  sovereign  debt  crisis  recovery  GFC  economic  history  zombie  banks  zombie  corporations  zombie  consumer  mortgage  market  consumer  debt  monetary  policy  Super  Cycle  deleveraging  debt  bubble  household  debt  debt  monetisation  debt  monetization  private  debt  debtoverhang  M3  liquidity  trap  monetary  transmission  mechanism  energy  price  austerity 
may 2015 by asterisk2a
The Ashcroft Interviews: Money, Blood & Revolution - YouTube
George Cooper - broken economics << is in crisis. is not offering useful guidance for policy makers because of so much conflicting views that are taken at time and voiced at times very violently. "economics is akin to astrology." ... QE will create bigger future recession. &! neoclassical = trickle-down/trickle-through &! economics teaches you a wrong view / looking glass &! neoclassical view - getting richer and richer. is that really true? &! maintaining status quo &! self-interest &! Marx says capitalism is polarising
book  economics  economist  GFC  academia  academics  centralbanks  equilibrium  disequilibrium  QE  debt  monetization  debt  monetisation  monetary  policy  unconventional  monetary  policy  debt  bubble  sovereign  debt  crisis  Super  Cycle  debt  jubilee  debt  restructuring  balance  sheet  recession  debtoverhang  debt  overhang  Gini  coefficient  income  inequality  inequality  social  cohesion  trickle-down  economics  liquidity  trap  Philosophy  LTRO  TLTRO  education  policy  social  mobility  income  mobility  fairness  tax  evasion  tax  avoidance  downward  mobility  social  safety  net  austerity  Makers  policy  folly  policy  error  Career  Politicians  Lobbying  lobbyist  lobby  Super  Rich  1%  Wall  Street  crony  capitalism 
march 2015 by asterisk2a
Warum wir weiter Bargeld brauchen - Münchau zu Rogoff-Vorstoß - SPIEGEL ONLINE
Ich glaube nicht, dass es möglich ist, die Inflationsziele nach Belieben hin- und herzuschieben. Wir sehen doch gerade die Schwierigkeiten, die die Europäische Zentralbank (EZB) damit hat, ihr gegenwärtiges Inflationsziel von knapp zwei Prozent zu erreichen. Wenn man Inflationsziele beliebig verschiebt, verlieren sie schnell an Glaubwürdigkeit. Die Menschen würden zu Recht vermuten, dass man die Ziele bald wieder verändert, wenn es kommod ist. Anstatt zu versuchen, die Inflationsziele zu verändern oder das Bargeld abzuschaffen, sollten wir unsere existierenden Probleme ernster nehmen. Die EZB hätte viel früher und viel energischer mit der geldpolitischen Lockerung anfangen müssen. Heute stellt sich die vordringliche Frage, wie wir ein Abdriften in japanische Verhältnisse vermeiden. Wir sollten uns von diesen wichtigen Themen nicht durch störende Scheindebatten ablenken lassen. Die Abschaffung des Bargeldes wird unsere Probleme nicht lösen.
fiat  currency  inflation  targeting  deflation  deflationary  Europe  economic  history  ECB  MarioDraghi  fiscal  policy  monetary  policy  QE  ZIRP  NIRP  OMT  zombie  banks  business  confidence  Japan  lost  decade  lost  generation  LTRO  TLTRO  Structural  Impediments  PIGS  Angela  Merkel  Pact  Schuldenbremse  France  Sick  man  of  Europe  imbalance  faultlines  infrastructure  investment  business  investment  Demand  and  Supply  China  Russia  BRIC  Frontier  Markets  Exportweltmeister  GFC  recovery  liquidity  trap  Richard  Koo  KennethRogoff  balance  sheet  recession  deleveraging  debtoverhang  Debt  Super  Cycle  Wall  Street  asset  bubble  speculative  bubbles  hunt  for  yield  crony  capitalism  Lohnzurückhaltung  consumer  confidence  profit  maximisation  Future  of  Work  Software  Is  Eating  The  World  culture  society  business  Politics  short-term  thinking  short-term  view  compromise  Career  Politicians  Lobbying  lobbyist  lobby  flat  globalisation  globalization 
november 2014 by asterisk2a
Anleihekäufe führen nicht zu Inflation: Kolumne von Wolfgang Münchau - SPIEGEL ONLINE
Wenn Sie sich jetzt die Anleihenkäufe der englischen oder der japanischen Zentralbank anschauen, dann ist genau das passiert, was ich gerade beschrieben habe. In beiden Fällen wurde die Geldbasis massiv erhöht. Die Geldmenge bewegte sich nicht. Warum kaufen Zentralbanken die Wertpapiere dann überhaupt? Sie hoffen auf indirekte Effekte, die am Ende einer langen Kette vielleicht doch auf die Geldmenge wirken. [...] Nur leider hat das in Japan zwei Jahrzehnte lang nicht funktioniert. Und bei uns bislang auch nicht. Dafür gibt es verschiedene Gründe: [...] [... overarching trend; a flattening of the curves (of disparity) across the world concerning economic ?pillars?: work type (more advanced work in the supplychain in china & not just labour intensive stuff only. more & more added value done in BRIC, East Europe, ...) #labourmarket, #consumption, #demographics, #edu, savings, social safety net, western style democracy et al) ... fall of Iron Curtain was beginning of process Angleichung]
liquidity  trap  Japan  BOJ  Fed  BOE  ECB  quantitative-easing  QE  ZIRP  NIRP  OMT  TLTRO  LTRO  TARP  POMO  equity  bubble  asset  bubble  asset  allocation  hunt  for  yield  sovereign  debt  crisis  Richard  Koo  lost  decade  economic  history  monetary  transmission  mechanism  monetary  theory  business  confidence  consumer  confidence  zombie  consumer  zombie  banks  business  investment  trust  trustagent  fiscal  policy  austerity  IMF  BIS  centralbanks  confidence  deleveraging  debtoverhang  Super  Cycle  consumer  debt  debt  bubble  debt  monetization  debt  monetisation  debt  restructuring  haircut  monetary  policy  monetary  system  fiat  currency  deflation  deflationary  inflation  targeting  inflation  expectation  flat  world  globalization  globalisation  faultlines  infrastructure  investment  Structural  Impediments  imbalance  competitive  competitiveness  China  BRIC  Frontier  Markets  Developing  global  trade  macroeconomics  microeconomics  labour  market  labour  economics  21stcentury  Software  Is  Eating  The  algorithm  Robotics  automation  Niedriglohnsektor  lohndumping  Lohnzurückhaltung  disposable  income  Mobile  Creative  Mobile  Creatives 
november 2014 by asterisk2a
Capitalism in Crisis Amid Slow Growth and Growing Inequality - SPIEGEL ONLINE
Six years after the Lehman disaster, the industrialized world is suffering from Japan Syndrome. Growth is minimal, another crash may be brewing and the gulf between rich and poor continues to widen. Can the global economy reinvent itself? [...] The buzzword is "inclusion" and it refers to a trait that Western industrialized nations seem to be on the verge of losing: the ability to allow as many layers of society as possible to benefit from economic advancement and participate in political life. & http://youtu.be/hPPBYNKmuWc?t=3m52s IMF talking about over 70% of EU banks are Zombie Banks.
Japan  economic  history  GFC  recovery  greatrecession  2014  secular  stagnation  faultlines  Abenomics  Richard  Koo  structural  imbalance  global  imbalances  Impediments  structural  deficit  liquidity  trap  globalisation  globalization  flat  world  Gini  coefficient  social  cohesion  income  inequality  income  mobility  social  mobility  downward  mobility  disposable  income  academia  academics  fiscal  policy  monetary  policy  debtoverhang  Debt  Super  Cycle  sovereign  crisis  deleveraging  NPL  zombie  banks  business  investment  consumer  confidence  business  confidence  balance  sheet  recession  creditcrunch  Wall  Street  crony  capitalism  excess  Bailout  toobigtofail  TBTF  too  big  to  jail  unintended  consequences  equity  bubble  asset  bubble  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  OMT  TARP  LTRO  TLTRO  Funding  for  Lending  Scheme  IMF  BIS  Europe  UK  USA 
october 2014 by asterisk2a
Thomas Mayer und sein Buch "Die neue Ordnung des Geldes" - SPIEGEL ONLINE
"Je mehr ich mich damit beschäftigte", erzählt er, "desto klarer wurde mir, dass das ein Problem im System ist." [...] "Wir haben die erste Runde der Krise bekämpft, aber wir kommen nicht mehr raus aus der Politik des billigen Geldes." [...] Gold ist für ihn ein "barbarischer Rohstoff", der im Modell der Österreichischen Schule eigentlich nur als Ersatz für das nötige Vertrauen der Bürger in eine Währung fungiere. Dennoch müsse die Geldmenge natürlich begrenzt werden. Den Banken und Staaten will Mayer deshalb jeden Zugriff auf die Schöpfung neuen Geldes entziehen. Er spricht von einem "Aktivgeldsystem".
book  GFC  toobigtofail  TBTF  too  big  to  jail  BIS  IMF  Fed  academia  economic  history  BOE  BOJ  Abenomics  ECB  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  OMT  LTRO  TLTRO  Bailout  liquidity  trap  monetary  theory  monetary  policy  unintended  consequences  asset  bubble  equity  bubble  unknown  unknowns  unknown  unkown  Debt  Super  Cycle  monetary  transmission  mechanism  consumer  confidence  business  confidence  trust  trustagent  confidence  fiat  currency  economic  model  economics  macroeconomics 
october 2014 by asterisk2a
IWF-Treffen in Washington: Kritik an Geldpolitik von Draghi - SPIEGEL ONLINE
In der Tat sind es nicht mehr die Deutschen allein, die auf die Gefahren der dauerhaft niedrigen Zinsen hinweisen. Auch anderswo bekommt man ob der Billiggeldschwemme ein mulmiges Gefühl. Auf den Finanzmärkten würden die Investoren teilweise sehr hohe Risiken eingehen, warnt etwa Claudio Borio, Chefökonom der Bank für Internationalen Zahlungsgleich in Basel. In der Realwirtschaft, wo eigentlich investiert werden soll, seien die Unternehmen dagegen eher risikoscheu. Borio nennt das eine Störung im System. & bit.ly/1CdseYt
IMF  BIS  ZIRP  QE  NIRP  OMT  TLTRO  LTRO  monetary  transmission  mechanism  distortion  Richard  Koo  deleveraging  trust  trustagent  business  confidence  confidence  consumer  confidence  liquidity  trap  ECB  BOE  Fed  MarioDraghi  Germany  PIGS  faultlines  global  imbalances  structural  imbalance  Impediments  working  poor  underemployed  squeezed  middle  class  Demand  and  Supply  Lohnzurückhaltung  deflation  deflationary  stagflation  secular  stagnation  Europe  France  Sick  man  of  Europe  infrastructure  investment  BRIC  MINT  Frontier  Markets  Developing  World  Exportweltmeister  balance  sheet  recession  GFC  debtoverhang  Debt  Super  Cycle  economic  history  globalization  globalisation  disposable  income  flat  ABS  zombie  banks  zombie  consumer  UK  USA  lost  decade  lost  generation  Policy  Makers  education  fiscal  monetary  folly  error  complexity  unintended  consequences  academia  Taper  Gini  coefficient  income  inequality  income  mobility  downward  mobility  social  mobility  inequality  Super  Rich  1%  Bailout  No  Representation  Career  Politicians  banking 
october 2014 by asterisk2a
EZB: Draghi kündigt Aufkaufprogramm für Kredite an - SPIEGEL ONLINE
Mit dem Plan reagiert Draghi auf die schwache Wirtschaftslage in der Eurozone. Länder wie Italien, Spanien oder Griechenland kommen - wenn überhaupt - nur sehr langsam aus der Krise. Die dortigen Banken vergeben seit Jahren immer weniger Kredite. Und selbst in großen Ländern wie Frankreich und Deutschland stagnierte die Wirtschaftsleistung zuletzt. Ausdruck findet das auch in der Inflationsstatistik: Die Verbraucherpreise in der Eurozone steigen kaum noch - im September lag die jährliche Teuerungsrate gerade mal noch bei 0,3 Prozent. Um die Wirtschaft in Schwung zu halten, sollen die Preise nach Vorstellungen der EZB aber eher um knapp zwei Prozent pro Jahr steigen. Deshalb versuchen Draghi und seine Kollegen seit Monaten, die Kreditvergabe der Banken zu steigern, um so Wirtschaftswachstum und Preisentwicklung anzutreiben.
ECB  MarioDraghi  monetary  policy  unconventional  monetary  policy  ABS  creditcrisis  creditcrunch  business  investment  monetary  transmission  mechanism  inflation  expectation  Europe  PIGS  NPL  deleveraging  balance  sheet  recession  debtoverhang  sovereign  debt  crisis  austerity  IMF  France  Germany  trade  balance  2014  recovery  GFC  stagflation  secular  stagnation  Richard  Koo  stagnation  Structural  Impediments  infrastructure  investment  unemployment  deficit  imbalance  faultlines  budget  deficit  fiscal  deficit  inflation  fiscal  policy  Pact  liquidity  trap  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  OMT  TLTRO  LTRO  zombie  banks  business  confidence  confidence  trust  trustagent  distortion  unintended  consequences  complexity  asset  bubble 
october 2014 by asterisk2a
Not that negative after all - YouTube
- nbdy is taking up the money to invest in his business (increase capacity, R&D, etc etc), becs there is no demand ... what is holding up the western world is the service economy - especially in UK and USA! - and then there is one particular structural impediment in Germany et al, demographic bubble.
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september 2014 by asterisk2a
ESM: Kreditprogramm ausgereizt - Nachfrage fehlt im Euro-Raum - SPIEGEL ONLINE
Der Bankenrettungsschirm ESM soll jetzt helfen, Unternehmen mit Krediten zu versorgen. Ein Vorschlag von beeindruckender Mutlosigkeit. Wesentlich wirksamer wäre es, das Geld per Hubschrauber über der Eurozone abzuwerfen. [...] Wäre es nicht besser, sich zunächst einmal zu fragen, welches Problem wir hier eigentlich lösen wollen? Ist Liquidität wirklich das Problem? Wohl kaum. Die Europäische Zentralbank legt dauernd neue Liquiditätsprogramme für den Bankensektor auf. Und was passiert? Die Banken wollen das Geld nicht und zahlen lieber die alten Kredite schnell zurück. Wenn Liquidität nicht mehr das Problem ist, wie soll dann ein Kreditprogramm helfen? [...] Firmen wollen keine Kredite, sie wollen Aufträge +!+!+!+ http://blogs.wsj.com/moneybeat/2014/09/18/ecbs-tltro-program-analysts-roundup/ +!+!+!+ ZIRP also never arrive for businesses.
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september 2014 by asterisk2a
Wirtschaftskrise: Deutsche Wirtschaft mit starkem Export ist anfällig - SPIEGEL ONLINE
Typischerweise produzieren dominante ökonomische Narrative zuerst Illusionen und dann große Probleme. Wo eine Geschichte von Marktteilnehmern, Regulierern und Beobachtern vorbehaltlos akzeptiert wird, ist der Boden bereitet für Irrtümer, die uns am Ende Kopf und Kragen kosten können, wie ich meinem neuen Buch argumentiere. >> Die Politik des billigen Geldes verzerrt die Wirtschaftsstrukturen .... - die deutsche Wirtschaft unterfinanziert & Dass die Politik des ultrabilligen Geldes die Wirtschaftsstrukturen verzerrt, auch hierzulande. [CreditCrunch/transmission mechanism broken/hunt for yield/betongold/no-investments] +++ die Digitalisierung auch die produktionslastige deutsche Wirtschaft fundamental durcheinanderwirbeln wird. [Year of Code/Education Policy/Human Capital - high ed imigrants/Mobile Creatives/Share Economy] +++ Spiegel 37/2014 "Deutschland der Scheinriese" Cover Story
GFC  bubble  property  bubble  bubbles  economic  history  economics  society  storytelling  narrative  journalism  journalismus  PIGS  UK  USA  Germany  Exportweltmeister  flat  world  globalisation  globalization  exports  export  Europe  Structural  Impediments  imbalance  faultlines  competitiveness  competitive  competitive  advantage  comparative  advantage  2014  Career  Politicians  short-term  thinking  short-term  view  long-term  thinking  long-term  view  Policy  Makers  error  folly  trust  trustagent  confidence  accountability  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  ECB  monetary  fiscal  LTRO  OMT  ABS  unconventional  monetary  monetary  transmission  mechanism  business  investment  infrastructure  investment  distortion  Wall  Street  centralbanks  IMF  IBS  liquidity  trap  creditcrunch  unintended  consequences  complexity  unknown  unkown  unknown  unknowns  blackswan  Black  Swan  Betongold  Beton  Gold  Future  of  Work  Mobile  Creative  Mobile  Creatives  Year  of  Code  education  Public  Policy  hunt  for  yield  human  capital  immigration  demographics  demographic  bubble  demography 
september 2014 by asterisk2a
BBC News - ECB cuts rates and launches stimulus programme
1-Day Before: http://youtu.be/_6D_xVeoIXs "ECB faces crunch on deflation threat" +++ The ECB has cut its benchmark interest rate to 0.05%, and introduced new stimulus measures. The ECB had earlier cut its rate from 0.25% to 0.15% in June, and also became the first major central bank to introduce negative interest rates. It will also launch an asset purchase programme, which will buy debt products from banks. It is hoped this move will add liquidity to the financial system and revive lending. [...] "[A] last roll of the dice". "The ECB has now almost exhausted its ammunition for preventing the Eurozone sliding into a devastating deflationary, contractionary spiral," +++ Analysis: http://youtu.be/IErml4SmKmE "European banks – Work those ABS" +++ bit.ly/1A6pmLU - France and Friends: Merkel Increasingly Isolated on Austerity "Europe ... is threatened with lasting weak growth should the deficit rules continue to be strictly interpreted. [ BuBa demands higher wages, ECB fiscal stimulus ]."
ABS  OMT  LTRO  ECB  monetary  transmission  mechanism  monetary  policy  unconventional  monetary  policy  austerity  PIGS  faultlines  Structural  Impediments  IMF  Germany  BuBa  deflation  deflationary  communication  zombie  banks  confidence  trustagent  trust  balance  sheet  recession  fiscal  policy  QE  bond  bubble  deleveraging  lost  decade  lost  generation  SME  SMB  Mittelstand  creditcrunch  creditcrisis  economic  history  debtoverhang  NPL  EuropeanSystemicRiskBoard  riskaversion  ZIRP  NIRP  negative  real  interest  rate  secular  stagnation  Makers  policy  error  policy  folly  Career  Politicians  inflation  expectation  stagnation  Betongold  Beton  Gold  hunt  for  yield  unintended  consequences  complexity  incomplete  information  France  liberal  economic  reform  Stability  Pact  Italy  academics  academia  deficit  budget  deficit  fiscal  deficit  wage  growth  wage  inflation  fiscal  stimulus  Wolfgang  Schäuble  Angela  Merkel  Sick  Man  of  Europe  infrastructure  investment  investment  business  investment  labor  market  reform  recovery 
september 2014 by asterisk2a
Zinsentscheid der EZB: Draghi plant Minus vor Zinssatz - SPIEGEL ONLINE
Schon immer ließ sich das Ende eines Systems besonders schwer erkennen, wenn man Teil des Systems ist. Im Jahre sieben nach Ausbruch der Finanzkrise ist es langsam Zeit für die Frage: Was, wenn die vermeintliche Ausnahme in Wahrheit die Regel ist? Wenn es sich bei der Kombination aus niedrigen Zinsen, niedrigem Wachstum und niedriger Inflation, die weite Teile Europa seit 2008 ebenso im Griff hält wie die USA und Japan, um die neue Normalität handelt? Wenn das seit Jahrzehnten praktizierte westliche Wirtschaftsmodell, sich immer niedrigere Wachstumsraten mit immer höheren Staatsschulden zu erkaufen, an seinem Schlusspunkt angelangt ist? +++ http://bit.ly/SxhnZq "Nicht Europa ist am Ende - sondern der Kapitalismus, so wie wir ihn kennen. [...] Im angelsächsischen Finanzkapitalismus wachsen die Vermögen der Reichen und stagnieren die Einkommen der anderen." [...] [EU Election Result is a vote] gegen das ungerechte Wirtschaftssystem, das ihre Lebensgrundlage gefährdet.
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june 2014 by asterisk2a
EZB senkt Leitzins und beschließt Minuszinsen für Banken - SPIEGEL ONLINE
Die Europäische Zentralbank (EZB) hat ihren Leitzins auf ein Rekordtief gesenkt und erstmals einen negativen Einlagensatz beschlossen. Angesichts der zuletzt sehr niedrigen Inflationsrate wird der Zins, zu dem sich die Geschäftsbanken bei der Notenbank Geld leihen können, um 0,10 Punkte auf 0,15 Prozent gesenkt, wie die EZB am Donnerstag nach ihrer Ratssitzung in Frankfurt mitteilte. Der Einlagensatz, zu dem Banken kurzfristig Geld bei der Notenbank parken können, wird erstmals in den negativen Bereich gedrückt. Er sinkt von bisher null Prozent auf minus 0,10 Prozent. Der Zins für kurzfristige Ausleihungen bei der Notenbank vermindert sich von 0,75 auf 0,40 Prozent. + http://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/unternehmen/ezb-entscheidung-kredite-und-senkung-des-leitzins-a-973657.html ""Die Banken leiden nicht unter vermeintlich zu hohen Notenbankzinsen, sondern unter dem hohen Bestand fauler Kredite, an dem Negativzinsen nichts ändern." + !! http://youtu.be/kKO_yxP3dyQ !!
deflation  deflationary  monetary  transmission  mechanism  unconventional  monetary  policy  monetary  policy  macroprudential  policy  macroeconomics  macroeconomic  policy  ECB  MarioDraghi  BuBa  Bundesbank  2014  ZIRP  OMT  QE  debt  monetization  debt  monetisation  deposit  levy  New  Normal  financial  repression  zombie  banks  zombie  corporations  Super  Cycle  sovereign  debt  crisis  PIGS  Structural  Impediments  deficit  unemployment  imbalance  Europe  Germany  faultlines  recovery  policy  error  policy  folly  Makers  Career  Politicians  austerity  fiscal  policy  GFC  lost  decade  lost  generation  long-term  unemployment  banking  union  creditcrisis  creditcrunch  credit  crunch  2015  NPL  non-performing  loan  economic  history  LTRO  assetbackedsecurities  Sterilization 
june 2014 by asterisk2a
Wolfgang Münchau: Die Gefahren des Jahres 2014 - SPIEGEL ONLINE
Beide Seiten haben Grund zu Pessimismus. Die strukturkonservative Bundeskanzlerin sieht mit Schrecken, dass Frankreich, Spanien und Italien keineswegs geneigt sind, deutsch zu werden. Euro-föderale Kritiker wie ich sind darüber enttäuscht, dass es weder eine Fiskalunion noch eine echte Bankenunion geben wird. Für uns ist das, was letzte Woche beschlossen wurde, keine Bankenunion, sondern nur ein schlechter Witz. Jedes Land bleibt für seinen eigenen Bankensektor verantwortlich. Das vorrangige ökonomische Ziel, die Risiken von Banken und Staaten zu trennen, ist dahin. Stattdessen ist die Bankenunion nur noch ein komplizierter administrativer Prozess.
Europe  europeanunion  banking  union  banking  crisis  bank  crisis  sovereign  debt  crisis  fiscal  sovereignty  austerity  2013  2014  France  Spain  Italy  liberal  economic  reform  greatrecession  greatdepression  lostdecade  lostgeneration  Japan  economic  history  history  Angela  Merkel  political  folly  political  error  FrancoisHollande  policy  error  policy  folly  ECB  creditcrisis  creditcrunch  M3  monetary  transmission  mechanism  monetary  policy  fiscal  policy  Richardkoo  reflation  deflationary  deflation  inflation  ZIRP  QE  LTRO  unintended  consequences  NIRP  negative  real  interest  rate  unconventional  monetary  policy 
december 2013 by asterisk2a
EZB hält Leitzins auf historischem Tiefstand - SPIEGEL ONLINE
Trotz der niedrigen Zinsen kommt das billige Geld derzeit nicht bei Unternehmen und Haushalten an. Vor allem in Südeuropa ist die Kreditvergabe weiter rückläufig. Um das zu ändern, wird im EZB-Rat über den Einsatz unkonventioneller Instrumente nachgedacht. Dazu gehören zum Beispiel negative Zinsen für Einlagen der Banken der EZB, aber auch neue langfristige Finanzspritzen.
liquidity-trap  ECB  unconventional  monetary  policy  modern  monetary  theory  monetary  system  monetary  theory  monetary  policy  monetary  transmission  mechanism  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  LTRO  OMT  negative  real  interest  rate  deflationary  deflation  asset  bubble  speculative  bubbles  unintended  consequences  complexity  faultlines  Structural  Impediments  sovereign  debt  crisis  Europe  PIGS  recovery  austerity  liberal  economic  reform  trust  trustagent  confidence  policy  error  policy  folly  political  folly  political  error  economic  history  IMF  balance  sheet  recession  deleveraging  divergence  Super  Cycle  lostdecade  lostgeneration  stagflation  stagnation  secular  stagnation  Japan 
december 2013 by asterisk2a
Five Years After Lehman, BIS Ex-Chief Economist Warns "It's Worse This Time" | Zero Hedge
The share of "leveraged loans" or extreme forms of credit risk, used by the poorest corporate borrowers, has soared to an all-time high of 45% - 10 percentage points higher than at the peak of the crisis in 2007. + http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-09-14/record-high-grade-leverage-means-pik-toggle-lbo-debt-back-and-worse-ever // The Bank Of International Settlements Warns The Monetary Kool-Aid Party Is Over www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-06-23/bank-international-settlements-warns-monetary-kool-aid-party-over ""central banks must head for the exit and stop trying to spur a global economic recovery... cheap and plentiful central bank money had merely bought time, warning that more bond buying would retard the global economy’s return to health by delaying adjustments to governments’ and households’ balance sheets." http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/10310598/BIS-veteran-says-global-credit-excess-worse-than-pre-Lehman.html
unemployment  employment  monetary  policy  Mark  Carney  ope  reflation  zombie  banks  monetary  transmission  mechanism  BOE  banking  crisis  carmenreinhart  BOJ  LBO  balancesheet  policy  folly  QE  liquidity  2013  fiscal  policy  UK  debt  monetisation  political  error  unknown  unkown  greatdepression  zombie  consumer  deleveraging  debt  monetization  Richardkoo  centralbanks  liberal  economic  reform  faultlines  GFC  monetary  theory  exuberance  MarioDraghi  unintended  consequences  global  economy  monetary  stimulus  Help  to  Buy  Scheme  liquidity-trap  zombie  corporations  ECB  monetary  system  political  folly  benbernanke  bank  crisis  Abenomics  rebalancing  China  greatrecession  policy  error  productivity  LTRO  NIRP  OMT  Fed  communication  economic  history  Super  Cycle  stagflation  leverage  KennethRogoff  sovereign  debt  crisis  recovery  unconventional  monetary  policy  ZIRP  USA  BIS  POMO  Funding  for  Lending  Scheme  corporate  governance  fiscal  deficit 
september 2013 by asterisk2a
Ökonomen starten Aufruf zur Unterstützung der EZB - SPIEGEL ONLINE
Das sehen allerdings nicht alle Ökonomen so. Ifo-Präsident Sinn jedenfalls reagierte verhalten auf den Aufruf: "Niemand bestreitet, dass sich die Kapitalmärkte beruhigen lassen, wenn man den Käufern der südlichen Staatspapiere mit Hilfe des OMT kostenlosen Versicherungsschutz anbietet", sagte er SPIEGEL ONLINE. Eine solche Lösung sei zwar "für Schuldner und Gläubiger gleichermaßen attraktiv", allerdings nicht für die Steuerzahler der bislang "noch gesunden Länder Europas". Diese müssten am Ende die Verluste der EZB tragen.
monetary  policy  complexity  MarioDraghi  unintended  consequences  monetary  transmission  mechanism  liquidity-trap  deflation  ECB  monetary  system  political  folly  policy  error  lostdecade  policy  folly  QE  LTRO  OMT  NIRP  2013  lostgeneration  economic  history  PIGS  debt  monetisation  political  error  creditcrunch  sovereign  debt  crisis  ZIRP  inflation  debt  monetization 
july 2013 by asterisk2a
Wolfgang Münchau über die Zinspolitik der EZB - SPIEGEL ONLINE
Aber am Ende ist das alles Haarspalterei. Es läuft auf dasselbe Ergebnis hinaus: Die Zinsen werden lange bei null bleiben, wahrscheinlich über mehrere Jahre. Solange es keine Anzeichen für eine dauerhaft steigende Inflation gibt - und die wird es auf absehbare Zeit nicht geben - solange wird sich dieser Ausblick nicht ändern. [...] Es besteht ein klarer Zusammenhang zwischen Geldmenge und den Preisen für Wertpapiere. [...] Es besteht die akute Gefahr, dass ähnlich wie in Japan vor zwanzig Jahren die Geldpolitik nicht greift, solange der Bankensektor so krank ist.
Greece  monetary  policy  JörgAsmussen  bond  bubble  incentive  asset  bubble  Europe  zombie  banks  monetary  transmission  mechanism  sentiment  BOE  banking  crisis  deflation  QE  PIGS  debt  monetisation  greatdepression  zombie  consumer  dis-inflation  deleveraging  asset  allocation  inflation  debt  monetization  balance  sheet  recession  Spain  GFC  capital  allocation  MarioDraghi  unintended  consequences  liquidity-trap  banking  union  negative  real  interest  rate  ECB  bank  crisis  greatrecession  debtoverhang  LTRO  OMT  NIRP  communication  Fed  trust  economic  history  Super  Cycle  confidence  sovereign  debt  crisis  monetarism  unconventional  monetary  policy  ZIRP  Jens  Weidmann 
july 2013 by asterisk2a
The Chart Making The Fed Nervous | Zero Hedge
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-04-19/fed-governor-stein-warns-when-tbtf-bank-fails-depositors-will-be-cyprused "all too clear that part of the Dodd-Frank resolution authority guidelines, a bailout is no longer an option." Cyprus was the first, and will not be the last incident of bail-in solution for TBTF >> this whole this is a replay of Japan 90s and 2000s
monetary  policy  deposit  haircut  Europe  reflation  zombie  banks  BOE  banking  crisis  deflation  BOJ  Cyprus  deposit  levy  policy  folly  QE  SIFI  PIGS  UK  Error  bail-in  trustagent  austerity  greatdepression  zombie  consumer  inflation  expectation  deleveraging  IMF  balance  sheet  recession  GFC  monetary  theory  output-gap  haircut  derivatives  liquidity-trap  Troika  ECB  Insured  Bank  Deposits  political  folly  crisis  greatrecession  lostdecade  debtoverhang  FDIC  LTRO  OMT  Fed  trust  economic  history  confidence  sovereign  debt  crisis  ZIRP  USA  PIIGS  toobigtofail  POMO  Japan 
april 2013 by asterisk2a
Münchau: Warum Draghis Programme keine Inflation bringen - SPIEGEL ONLINE
Milton Friedmans Monetarismus ist nicht gescheitert, weil er falsch war, sondern weil sich die Welt geändert hat.

[...]

Um Inflation wirklich zu verstehen, bedarf es des Verständnisses einer komplexen Dynamik, die eine ganze Reihe von Faktoren mit einschließt - unter anderem die gesamtwirtschaftliche Nachfrage, die Entwicklung an Rohstoffmärkten, Arbeitslosigkeit, die Lücke zwischen Auslastung der Industrie und ihrer Kapazität sowie die Entwicklung von Krediten und anderen Finanzindikatoren. Fast alle diese Indikatoren deuten auf eine deflationäre Entwicklung hin.

[...]

Die Aufgabe der Notenbank wird es dann nicht mehr sein, Inflation zu bekämpfen, sondern für ein Mindestmaß an Inflation zu sorgen. Noch besser wäre es, wenn die Notenbanken nicht mehr ein isoliertes Inflationsziel setzen, sondern ein nominales Wachstumsziel verfolgen.
2012  richardkoo  miltonfriedman  PIIGS  nominal  GDP  targeting  OpertationTwist  BOJ  BOE  Fed  balance  sheet  recession  economic  history  lostdecade  greatrecession  GFC  deflation  deleveraging  debtoverhang  sovereign  debt  crisis  Japan  centralbanks  monetary  theory  monetary  policy  monetarism  System  LTRO  SMP  ECB  QE  ZIRP  inflation  reflation 
september 2012 by asterisk2a
Charting Europe's Broken Transmission Channels | ZeroHedge
Barclays provides a succinct flowchart of just where those transmission channels are broken. However, with SMP empirically a losing proposition for sovereign spreads, LTROs having had no impact on loans to non-financial corporates, and rate cuts not reaching the peripheral economies (and in fact signaling further divergence); it seems that short of full-scale LSAP (which JPM thinks will need to be a minimum EUR600bn to be in any way effective), whatever Draghi says will be a disappointment and perhaps that explains the weakness in European sovereigns this week as exuberance fades (or is the game to implicitly weaken the EUR to regain competitiveness).

The transmission policy channels of central bank largesse are failing... as giving free money to banks is not reaching the economy... (LTRO) ... and cutting rates didn't reach the areas it needed... (base rate cuts do not translate in rate cuts on the other side [real economy].

A weaker Euro? Be careful what you wish for.
creditcrunch  monetary  theory  unintended  consequences  currency-war  currency  debasement  policy  folly  policy  error  Politics  confidence  trustagent  trust  banking  crisis  bank  crisis  QE  debtoverhang  deleveraging  GFC  greatrecession  2012  sovereign  debt  crisis  MarioDraghi  SMP  LTRO  moneysupply  velocity  of  money  transmission  monetary  policy  System  ECB  PIIGS  Euro  competitiveness 
july 2012 by asterisk2a
Draghi: EZB will wieder Staatsanleihen kaufen und Euro retten - SPIEGEL ONLINE
- Draghi sounded very Fed like; speculation now that they might use SMP non-standard monetary policy tool again.
- also I personally got the impression they want to safe Euro and thus the banking system. But necessarily not Greece. Greece and other problematic sovereigns were not mentioned. If Greece were to exit - they could to another LTRO.
- also analysts speculate that ECB could do something with ESM together in the future.

- Everything else considered; ECB can not solve problems of sovereigns. Actions are only a sedative against the pain and these sedatives (non-standard measures) will be discounted by market over time now faster than the last time.

http://www.forexlive.com/blog/2012/07/26/hes-here-better-late-than-never-draghi-euro-area-much-stronger-than-people-acknowledge-today/

Within our mandate ECB ready to do whatever it takes to preserve the euro

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/quick-reminder-effectiveness-ecbs-bond-buying
LTRO  ESM  EFSF  SMP  MarioDraghi  2012  PIIGS  Europe  sovereign  debt  crisis  velocity  of  money  moneysupply  monetary  theory  monetary  policy  System  ECB 
july 2012 by asterisk2a
Rumor NY consulting shop says ECB could go to negative deposit rates in September | ForexLive
One of the catalysts for the latest move lower, it would appear.
Since the ECB cut the deposit rate to zero last week, deposits at the ECB fallen sharply. Rather than find their way into productive use, banks have been buying short-term government debt pushing rates in Germany and Holland below zero and to 0.03% in Finland.

***

- NIRP seems not to be the incentive to lend to real economy (lending, debt roll-over) or between each other ... easing the interbank credit crunch.
- Q for banks remain about outlook of Europe, and bc it is on the downside, they don't wanna do anything. its damage control of its balance sheet (Zombi banks, Zombi companies, NPL)
- Liquidity seems not the solution to structural problems (ie bank and sovereign linkage, competitiveness, EU wide divergence in local policies like labour, taxation and laws)
- http://www.zerohedge.com/news/clarifying-entirely-unremarkable-shift-ecb-deposits
Politics  France  Germany  sarkozy  FrancoisHollande  angelamerkel  greatrecession  GFC  liquidity-trap  liquidation  LTRO  QE  2012  PIIGS  Europe  zombie  banks  NPL  creditcrunch  confidence  trustagent  trust  sovereign  debt  crisis  debtoverhang  BIS  ECB  monetary  theory  monetary  policy  System  policy  error  inflation  deflation  ZIRP  NIRP 
july 2012 by asterisk2a
Why the EU summit decisions may destabilise government bond markets | vox
!! Only the ECB can stabilise bond markets !!

The only way to stabilise the government bond markets is to involve the ECB, either indirectly by giving a banking license to the ESM so that it can draw on the resources of the ECB (see Gros and Mayer 2010), or by direct interventions by the ECB. But the European leaders were unable (unwilling) to take that necessary step to stabilise the Eurozone.

The ECB is the only institution that can prevent panic in the sovereign bond markets from pushing countries into a bad equilibrium, because as a money-creating institution it has an infinite capacity to buy government bonds. The fact that resources are infinite is key to be able to stabilise bond rates. It is the only way to gain credibility in the market.

The SMP is the wrong precedent

**
My take, I am only buying half of the analysis. Outright bond buying would need a treaty change!? Another concern is rampant inflation expectations causing local bubbles.
bailout  greatrecession  inflation  expectations  IOU  fiscal  policy  Pact  lenderoflastresort  Eurobond  PIIGS  EMU  moralhazard  politics  Economics  monetary  theory  monetary  policy  trustagent  trust  ZIRP  QE  LTRO  SMP  ECB  EFSF  ESM  sovereign  debt  crisis 
july 2012 by asterisk2a
It’s Not A Bursting Bubble. It’s a Correction And It Will Take Awhile. | TechCrunch
the hunt for yield.

Late Stage ...
companies are still getting bid up “like insane.”
but .... “Like Icarus, they got too close to the sun.” (Zynga, Fb, Groupon)

still ... The best companies might even do better in a down market. (Linkedin, Monster energy drink company)

Early Stage investing ...
The impact on the early-stage market is the hardest to predict since these companies are valued more subjectively.

***

This is partly just natural market behavior. When things get super-hot, it’s smart to look elsewhere for less obvious opportunities.

Facebook IPO was just a good catalyst for reinforcing discussion about valuations.

Historical bubbles from the 17th century to 2008 have all sorts of bizarre characteristics. They tend to include masses of normal, unsophisticated investors and draw out unscrupulous and fraudulent actors.

Plenty of capital is still coming in ... The bigger firms are raising a billion dollars or more for their funds. mhhhhh ....
bubble  economic  history  investment-vehicle  investment  management  linkedin  IPO  Groupon  Fab.com  Twitter  seedfunding  venturecapital  Spotify  Zynga  Facebook  SiliconValley  2012  greatrecession  GFC  LTRO  monetary  policy  QE  ZIRP  unintended  consequences 
june 2012 by asterisk2a
Gross Says Low Quality of Debt Threatens Monetary System - Bloomberg
Bill Gross said the lower quality of sovereign debt represents a threat to the global monetary system.
Investors should favor debt of nations such as the U.S., Mexico and Brazil, and emphasize intermediate maturities over the next few years, Gross said in his monthly investment outlook posted on the Newport Beach, California-based company’s website today. Equity investors should seek companies that produce stable cash flow and that are exposed to high growth markets.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/bill-gross-global-monetary-system-reaching-its-breaking-point

“The global monetary system which has evolved and morphed over the past century but always in the direction of easier, cheaper and more abundant credit, may have reached a point at which it can no longer operate efficiently and equitably to promote growth,”

The U.S. remains the ‘liquidity haven and a quality haven for the rest of the world, This is one giant deleveraging moment that will likely continue for a number of years.”
WallStreet  fiscal  policy  inflation  reflation  debtoverhang  Monetary  System  currency-war  currency  debasement  MarioDraghi  UK  BOE  MervynKing  trichet  benbernake  alangreenspan  bubble  banking  deleveraging  policy  folly  policy  error  policy  LTRO  USA  Europe  greatrecession  GFC  PIMCO  sovereign  debt  crisis  unintended  consequences  QE  ZIRP 
june 2012 by asterisk2a
Buttonwood: The nationalisation of markets | The Economist
... price lost its signal service due to policy of QE, ZIRP
... underwater balance sheets seem not to matter anymore

... Trapped in a cage of our own making
... To get free we either cut of limbs and risk bleeding to death
... Or we starve ourself so long till we fit between the bars

history suggests that once governments get involved in a sector, they find it hard to withdraw. Given the weak outlook, it is hard to imagine the circumstances in which liquidity support for the banks will be withdrawn, or the policy of low interest rates abandoned. This is a new financial and economic era.
politics  politicalscience  political  economy  2012  financial  repression  new-normal  greatdepression  economic  history  toobigtofail  cartel  subsidies  Basel3  basel  ECB  Fed  BOE  LTRO  greatrecession  GFC  supply-demand  monetary  policy  ZIRP  unintended  consequences  QE 
may 2012 by asterisk2a
Germany’s economy: Message to the Bundesbank | The Economist
Bundesbank and BaFin could with domestic policy tools (“macroprudential” instruments) avoid asset bubbles (ie property, agriculture land bubble, excessive debt growth). Spurred via QE/LTRO and ZIRP.

"To do that, he has two tools: the bully pulpit and so-called macroprudential levers, such as requiring banks to boost their capital or tightening rules on mortgages. Like many other countries, Germany is developing rules that will allow its central bank and financial supervisors to dampen credit and asset bubbles (see article)."

[...]

ECB/BaFin have to put Germany’s inflation in context: higher wages, after years of stagnation, are a good thing. And he must squash alarmist talk about asset bubbles. Yes, German property prices have started to rise, but it is hardly a bubble when house prices, relative to incomes and rents, are around 20% undervalued.

http://www.economist.com/node/21554198
Germany  2012  sovereign  debt  crisis  Europe  monetary  policy  inflation  reflation  competitiveness  PIIGS  unintended  consequences  LTRO  QE  ZIRP  ECB  bafin  bundesbank 
may 2012 by asterisk2a
Did everybody see what just happened? The pendulum has swung. - Find Office Space - 42Floors
Here is the thing ... you never know how big and outrageous the bubble can get.
There is ample liquidity world wide (via central banks), there is lack of ROI when in sovereign debt, there is risk when in sovereign debt (see PIIGS), there is other risk (ie currency devaluation, political risk) when in sovereign debt (see Russia, UK, Japan, USA).
There is hightend uncertainty and volatility in the equity markets plus the usual currency devaluation going on.
Then there are alternative investment like commodities, synthetic products, property, real estate, farmland (agriculture), corporate debt, ... and venture capital/seed funding.

The last two are seeing greater attention due to many different view points. But yes, ... it is artificially inflated ... because we are all humans, making mistakes. We will be all the wise afterwards. Hindsight 20/20.

And VCs have a job ... invest the money to the best of their knowledge at hand. There is no stopping because there is no end in sight yet.
bubble  ZIRP  unintended  consequences  greatrecession  monetary  policy  Fed  LTRO  QE  2012  seedfunding  VC  venturecapital 
april 2012 by asterisk2a
Only ECB Can Bail Out Spain, John Mauldin Says - YouTube
LTRO is repackaging of debt. Put on ECBs balance sheet. And if all fails in the coming years 2-3. Then this debt is transferred to respective National Central Bank, then this country (PIIGS) can leave Euro and devalue and reform without hurting EU banking system beyond repair (German, French, Austria, and fringe).
monetary  policy  ECB  sovereign  debt  crisis  Europe  2012  PIIGS  LTRO 
april 2012 by asterisk2a
Finanzkrise: "Die Märkte schreien nach immer mehr Geld" - SPIEGEL ONLINE - Nachrichten - Wirtschaft
Nagel: Wir müssen aufmerksam beobachten, was mit dem Geld passiert. Noch parken die Institute einen Großteil bei den Notenbanken, aber dafür bekommen sie nur 0,25 Prozent Zinsen. Da sie selbst ein Prozent Zinsen bezahlt haben, ist das für sie auf Dauer ein schlechtes Geschäft. Es besteht also die Gefahr, dass die Banken Risiken eingehen, die wir eigentlich nicht sehen wollen. Für uns ist deshalb wichtig, dass wir jetzt schon über Ausstiegsszenarien reden und den Märkten signalisieren: Es ist nicht selbstverständlich, dass es so wie in den letzten Monaten weitergeht.

-- Don't get Banks addicted to easy money. Hard choices for the future have to be made.
monetary  policy  QE  ZIRP  LTRO  bundesbank  ECB 
march 2012 by asterisk2a
ECB balance sheet tops EUR 3 trln for the first time | ForexLive
Balance sheet 31% larger than the German economy
Balance sheet 33% bigger than the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet

At some point, when the halo-effect surrounding the LTRO diminishes (as sovereign debt pressures return), the size of the balance sheet will weigh on EUR/USD sentiment the way QE1 and QE2 weighed on the dollar.
unintended  consequences  unin  QE  balancesheet  monetary  policy  SMP  2012  LTRO  ECB 
march 2012 by asterisk2a
European Credit Signals LTRO Ineffectiveness | ZeroHedge
Market Intelligence...
Example how two different markets (credit, equity) have different intelligence and view about the same thing. The one is more subjectively than the other.
Banks know, ... growth is way out, reform is way out, political economic liberal reform is out, eu political frame work to reform - is the way out. But not yet another LTRO ...

- Zombi Banks in Europe, as there were Zombi Banks in Japan.
2012  LTRO 
march 2012 by asterisk2a
Dallas Fed's Fisher "Perplexed" By Wall Street "Fetish" With QE3 And Disgusted With The Addiction To "Monetary Morphine" | ZeroHedge
complaining about, get this, Wall Street's "continued preoccupation, bordering upon fetish" with QE3. The irony continues: "Trillions of dollars are lying fallow, not being employed in the real economy. Yet financial market operators keep looking and hoping for more. Why? I think it may be because they have become hooked on the monetary morphine we provided when we performed massive reconstructive surgery, rescuing the economy from the Financial Panic of 2008–09, and then kept the medication in the financial bloodstream to ensure recovery....I believe adding to the accommodative doses we have applied rather than beginning to wean the patient might be the equivalent of medical malpractice."

- ECB's Nowotny did sound the alarmbells too two weeks ago
addiction  quantitative-easing  Fed  BOE  ECB  greatrecession  GFC  sovereign  debt  crisis  liquidity-trap  monetary  policy  unintended  consequences  LTRO  QE  ZIRP 
march 2012 by asterisk2a
The ECB's LTRO and the Fed's testimony: How to read a central bank | The Economist
First, the European Central Bank conducted its second three-year Long Term Refinancing Operation. (You can read my colleague’s take here.) Second, Ben Bernanke, chairman of the Federal Reserve testified to the House Financial Services Committee, and hinted that more quantitative easing - the purchase of bonds by printing money - was a bit less likely. He called the recovery "uneven and modest by historical standards" but that was better than "frustratingly slow,” the description he used at the start of this month.

> On little change in the wording of the testimony set of a good slide in Gold and EUR, and a good rise in USD. One little change.
reflation  2012  benbernake  ZIRP  quantitative-easing  liquidity-trap  LTRO  QE  Fed  ECB 
march 2012 by asterisk2a
Guest Post: About Those High Gasoline Prices… Look Again | ZeroHedge
GOLD - It’s an anti-currency… appropriate for those who want to sit out of the market and be in cash without having to be in cash.
commodities  Oil  2012  monetary  policy  inflation  reflation  unintended  consequences  centralbanks  LTRO  QE  ZIRP  currency-war  currency  debasement  Gold 
march 2012 by asterisk2a
Mario Draghi Is Becoming Germany's Most Hated Man | ZeroHedge
The huge take-up at Wednesday's so-called LTRO meant that in the space of two months the ECB has injected over a trillion euros into the financial system.

- liquidity does not solve insolvency.
- may buy time, but also prone to wreak havoc

But, but, it's all in the name of perpetuating the ponzi. Forget that it is the Germans who are paying the bill.

Draghi is already at odds with some powerful voices in Germany, taking a nonchalant view last month about the TARGET2 imbalances.

The Bundesbank considers the TARGET2 imbalances a symptom of underlying problems in the currency bloc and is watching them with increasing concern as they reflect a stronger reliance of banks in weaker euro zone countries on cheap ECB funding and growing risks on those countries' central banks balance sheets.
reflation  inflation  target2-system  MarioDraghi  bundesbank  Europe  structural  imbalance  ZIRP  unintended  consequences  quantitative-easing  QE  monetary  policy  ECB  2012  LTRO 
march 2012 by asterisk2a
Eurozone crisis: live blog | The World | International affairs blog from the FT – FT.com
11.15: Mervyn King, the governor of the Bank of England, has been speaking to the UK parliament’s treasury committee this morning, suggesting that some of the hype about the LTRO is unjustified.

“The idea that the long term repo operations have eased the supply of finance to small businesses in the euro area is a myth.
“What it has done is to provide a source of funding to banks particularly in the southern member countries of the euro area which were experiencing a bank run, enabling them to fund the withdrawal of funds.”

- indeed, it just helped to avert a liquidity (& thus credit crunch, followed by deflationary pressures later) squeeze in the European banking system.

- but everything after the 2nd 3yr LTRO operation will have less impact. On the margin, it becomes less effective. With each new operation.

- ECB's Nowotny noted recently that they see Banks being addicted to cheap liquidity, that it is an issue.
monetary  policy  unintended  consequences  QE  ZIRP  Europe  sovereign  debt  crisis  PIIGS  bankrun  creditcrunch  BOE  ECB  2012  MervynKing  LTRO 
march 2012 by asterisk2a
EU-Gipfel: Europas riskantes Zeitspiel - SPIEGEL ONLINE - Nachrichten - Wirtschaft
Die Krise hat allenfalls eine kleine Pause eingelegt. Verantwortlich dafür sind allerdings weder irgendwelche Sparprogramme noch Hilfszusagen, sondern vor allem die Europäische Zentralbank (EZB). Unter Führung des Italieners Mario Draghi hat sie am Mittwoch zum zweiten Mal innerhalb weniger Wochen rund eine halbe Billion Euro in die Finanzmärkte gepumpt.

Die europäischen Banken konnten sich das Geld für drei Jahre zum Minizins von einem Prozent leihen. Damit sind nicht nur die Finanzinstitute erst mal gerettet, sondern die Staaten gleich mit. Denn die billigen Kredite legen einige Banken gerne in vergleichsweise hochrentable Staatsanleihen an - ein Geschäft, das sich derzeit für alle Seiten lohnt.

Die Geldspritzen der EZB verschaffen den krisengeplagten Euro-Ländern tatsächlich etwas Zeit - vielleicht ein paar Monate, höchstens aber drei Jahre. Dann müssen die Banken die Kredite an die EZB zurückzahlen - und wieder in der Lage sein, sich das Geld woanders zu borgen.
monetary  policy  liberal  economic  reform  austerity  2012  sovereign  debt  crisis  Europe  LTRO  ECB 
march 2012 by asterisk2a
Eric Sprott On Unintended Consequences | ZeroHedge
All of this pervasive intervention most likely explains more than 90 percent of the market's positive performance this past January. Had the G6 NOT convened on swaps, had the ECB NOT launched the LTRO programs, and had Bernanke NOT expressed a continuation of zero interest rates, one wonders where the equity indices would trade today. One also wonders if the European banking system would have made it through December. Thank goodness for "coordinated action". It does work in the short-term.

... bank bailout in the shadows of unconventional monetary policy (nonstandard measures) - QE, ZIRP, LTRO,

The second unintended consequence is the impact that interventions have had on the non-G6 countries' perception of western solvency.
ZIRP  centralbanks  China  Russia  currency  debasement  currency-war  Gold  solvency  monetary  policy  sovereign  debt  crisis  reflation  2012  2011  LTRO  BOJ  BOE  QE  ECB  Fed  unintended  consequences 
february 2012 by asterisk2a
The (European) Placebo Effect | ZeroHedge
So much of what I find wrong about “economics” is that it masquerades as far more of a science than it actually is. It doesn’t have theories that can be “tested” in a real world, where 2 similar situations are treated differently to see which “treatment” works better. Each economy and each situation is so different that it is IMPOSSIBLE to determine why policies failed or what should have been done differently. It is possible to come up with reasonable ideas and theories of what could have been done or should have been done, but they are only theories. The systems are so complex that finding situations with similar starting conditions with similarly motivated entities involved is simply impossible to find. The fact that so much of our policy seems to be based on research into what should have been done in the Great Depression and what has been seen in Japan is frankly scary. There is no way to “know” how the Great Depression would have turned out with a different set of policies.
ECB  Europe  folly  policy  2012  fiscal  policy  monetary  policy  sovereign  debt  crisis  LTRO  austerity  economics  economic-thought  economic  history 
february 2012 by asterisk2a
The euro zone crisis: ECB = FDIC | The Economist
A SHARP point from the monthly note of the Bank Credit Analyst (always one of the best research reads). The writers agree that the ECB's LTRO loans have stopped the possibility of a dangerous bank run in the euro zone. To have confidence in money, citizens need to be reassured that the government stands behind the banks. But

such a backstop can only be credible if there are no doubts about the government's solvency. The problem in Europe is that deposit insurance schemes are administered at the national level. That is where the ECB comes in. While it would never admit it, through a rather circuitous route. the ECB has now assumed a role comparable to the US Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC)
PIIGS  sovereign  debt  crisis  2012  bankrun  LTRO  monetary  policy  Europe  ECB 
february 2012 by asterisk2a
ECB Decision ... 9th Feb 2012 | ZeroHedge
'transitory' nature of temporary non-standard measure; easing collateral demands (will now accept credit claims) to avoid credit crunch in Europe and help refinance banks (roll over of existing debt, new capital requirements (EBA) & risk aversion)

Simply proves that Europe is running out of any money good assets to pledge to the ECB as "collateral."

DRAGHI NO LONGER SEES `SUBSTANTIAL' DOWNSIDE ECONOMIC RISKS
DRAGHI SAYS IMPACT OF LTRO ON BANK FUNDING IS STILL UNFOLDING
DRAGHI SAYS ECB WILL REVIEW COLLATERAL SITUATION IN 6 MONTHS
DRAGHI SAYS ECB `CONCERNED' ABOUT SLOWING DOWN IN CREDIT
DRAGHI SAYS BNK LENDING SURVEY DOESN'T FULLY REFLECT LTRO
Draghi Says ECB Will ‘Take More Risk’ on Collateral
DRAGHI SAYS TALK ABOUT ECB SHARING LOSSES `IS UNFOUNDED'

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/ecbs-collateral-pool-expansion-%E2%82%AC71-trillion-imminent-trash-cash-increase-its-balance-sheet

"Loss on Balance sheet holdings is monetary financing of Europe." Draghi
Target2-System discussed minute 47.
target2-system  monetization  SMP  EBA  Europe  creditcrunch  QE  ZIRP  LTRO  balancesheet  collateral  MarioDraghi  2012  monetary  policy  ECB 
february 2012 by asterisk2a
Euro-Krise: Vier tickende Geldbomben bedrohen Europa - SPIEGEL ONLINE - Nachrichten - Wirtschaft
1. ECB's LTRO does not solve sovereign debt problem
2. Greece
2.5 Portugal
3. Spain
4. Europe's National Central Banks seem to go under .... Target2; ECB's interbank payment system.

http://www.ecb.int/paym/t2/html/index.en.html
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/TARGET

"Für die Bundesbank ergeben sich daraus Forderungen von fast einer halben Billion Euro gegenüber der EZB, eine Summe, die mit jedem Monat der Krise weiter wächst."

http://www.cesifo-group.de/portal/pls/portal/docs/1/1207364.PDF

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/goldmans-take-target2-and-how-bundesbank-will-suffer-massive-losses-if-eurozone-fails
PIIGS  Germany  sarkozy  angelamerkel  politics  political  economy  bundesbank  ECB  faultlines  structural  imbalance  target2-system  Spain  economic-thought  balance  sheet  recession  richardkoo  Greece  LTRO  2012  sovereign  debt  crisis  Europe 
february 2012 by asterisk2a
The euro crisis: The ECB's tricky route to stabilisation | The Economist
the ECB's actions have had a dramatic impact on sovereign yields at all durations. On the other hand, it has not been successful at reversing a reduction in lending that threatens the real euro-zone economy.

As the piece explains, the ECB's is a useful strategy, but one which has in some ways increased the risk to the single currency of a renewed loss of confidence in sovereign solvency. An unsatisfactory outcome to the Greek debt negotiations could help trigger such a reversal, as could the recession generated by the present credit crunch. For all its success, the ECB hasn't shepherded the euro zone out of trouble entirely, and it may yet find itself needing to buy large quantities of government bonds.
capital-flight  PIIGS  moneymarkets  moneysupply  monetary  theory  monetary  policy  creditcrunch  Europe  sovereign  debt  crisis  2012  Fed  BOE  quantitative-easing  LTRO  ECB 
february 2012 by asterisk2a
Das Kapitulation | ZeroHedge
The bottom line is that the ECB, directly and indirectly, is giving its governments and its banks the money that the rest of the world has been taking away.
monetary  policy  quantitative-easing  LTRO  2011  2012  ECB 
january 2012 by asterisk2a
Nomura's Koo Plays The Pre-Blame Game For The Pessimism Ahead | ZeroHedge
While his diagnosis of the balance sheet recessionary outbreak that is sweeping global economies (including China now he fears) is a useful framework for understanding ZIRP's (and monetary stimulus broadly) general inability to create a sustainable recovery, his one-size-fits-all government-borrow-and-spend to infinity (fiscal deficits during balance sheet recessions are good deficits) solution is perhaps becoming (just as he said it would) politically impossible to implement. In his latest missive, the Nomura economist does not hold back with the blame-bazooka for the mess we are in and face in 2012.

LTRO may rescue financial system but cannot save real economy
LTRO should be viewed in similar light as Fed’s QE1

The banks effectively used funds borrowed from the Fed to meet payment obligations. The money was not used to fund new loans.
Consequently, neither bank lending nor the money supply grew despite all the liquidity injected under QE1, and inflation and growth ...
ECB  Japan  history  EBA  Basel3  economics  moneysupply  monetary  theory  monetary  policy  quantitative-easing  economic-thought  outlook  Europe  deflation  deleveraging  ratingagencies  LTRO  balance  sheet  recession  ZIRP  2012  2011  richardkoo  blamegame 
january 2012 by asterisk2a
Eurozone burns money while the banks fiddle their balance sheets - Telegraph
ECB's LTRO is QE in stealth. A bank bailout. And one way to prop up money supply and velocity.

It buys time, politicians have to use. If not, and all else will fail - the trust of the public / society will bring a 2nd Depression and the break-off of PIIGS et al.

The market knows what is going on, thus the Euro is justifiably under 1.30.

All that, while banks need to delever and consolidate. And sovereigns need to fix their budgets and promote growth reforms to stop demand shortfall.

There is not "one" fix that addresses all problems.

OR ... politicians stand by the people and look beyond the next election.

"So eurozone governments need to stand behind retail depositors, make the financial institutions "fess-up" and let the cards fall, forcing the bombed-out European banking sector to consolidate."
complexity  Basel3  accounting  banking  PIIGS  politics  economic-thought  deleveraging  moneysupply  sovereign  debt  crisis  2012  Europe  monetary  policy  monetarism  monetization  debt  monetisation  LTRO  ECB 
january 2012 by asterisk2a
Repairing the Global Plumbing - Mohamed A. El-Erian - Project Syndicate
Unfortunately, the economic outcomes have come nowhere close to matching the intensity of these efforts. Effectively, the central banks have been unconventional bridges to nowhere, owing mainly to their imperfect tools and other government agencies’ inability or unwillingness to act. At some point – and we are nearing it – bridges to nowhere become a standalone risk: they can topple over.
politics  folly  growth  Portugal  Greece  haircut  UK  USA  Europe  crisis  debt  sovereign  GFC  2012  recession  balancesheet  richardkoo  liquidity-trap  liquidity  LTRO  BOE  Fed  ECB  policy  fiscal  monetary 
january 2012 by asterisk2a
Schuldenkrise: "Die Banken gehen den bequemen Weg" - SPIEGEL ONLINE - Nachrichten - Wirtschaft
SPIEGEL ONLINE: Die EZB lindert also kurzfristig die Not der Banken, verschärft aber das Risiko, dass es zu einer noch gefährlicheren Finanzkrise kommt?

Gerke: Ja. Die Notenbank stellt das Geld ja nicht zu Marktkonditionen zur Verfügung, sondern der Zins liegt unter der Inflationsrate, ist also viel zu billig. Die Folge ist, dass der Markt mit diesem Geld nicht effizient arbeitet. Die Banken haben keine Veranlassung, ihr riskantes Geschäftsmodell zu ändern. Dazu kommen inflationäre Risiken und das Problem, dass sich die Staaten weiterhin viel zu billig verschulden können.
policy  monetary  banks  PIIGS  2012  2011  ZIRP  ECB  LTRO 
january 2012 by asterisk2a

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