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asterisk2a + esm   67

Mark Blyth at E.Y.W.T.K.B.N.H.D.T.A. By ThePressProject - YouTube
from this point on, summer 2016, hope is that it can get only better. // it is remarkable Greece is still alive // problem is, that banks were only bailed out to a level of zombie banks. see non-performing loans. zombie banks in PIGS country and Deutsche Bank. Contagion. ... banks will languish on as long as economy languishes on; https://soundcloud.com/theeconomist/money-talks-stressed-out-banks
Mark  Blyth  Greece  PIGS  sovereign  debt  crisis  bank  bailout  GFC  Political  Class  Centrist  Centrists  Austerity  leverage  ESM  secular  stagnation  Fiscal  Pact  Schuldenbremse  Wolfgang  Schäuble  Angela  Merkel 
august 2016 by asterisk2a
Yanis Varoufakis: »MONEY AND POWER«, Public Lecture 2015-11-04
3rd bailout loan $0 went to Greece. All to pay off banks. extend & pretend. 1st: ~90% went to the banks. [...] ESM does not exist [...] banking union plan not progressing at all. //&! Yanis Varoufakis @Oxford Union - youtu.be/zWB6lY2GBjQ - ACADEMIA LACKS ANTI-ESTABLISHMENT ATTITUDE! Because going against the grain has become anti-reputation. [...] it's all about expectations, predictions about where S&P500 will be in 12 months. [...] regression between theory and reality. economists have never been humble. [ see Wall Street cottage factory of analysis and prediction shops ] [...] if you torture the data and model enough it will confess. [< EU monetary union based on theory ] [...] [34:00] Brussels is technically incompetent and will not reform itself. I am a libertarian marxist. Schumpeter. true creative destruction. great wealth currently created - all going to 1%. = not humanitarian. not democratic. [...] 41:00 Q&A, <48:50> gov budget not same as household budget; George Osborne.
bank  crisis  banking  crisis  European  Election  2014  sovereign  debt  crisis  austerity  Grexit  Yanis  Varoufakis  Tsipras  Syriza  Brussels  Wolfgang  Schäuble  Angela  Merkel  GFC  Great  Depression  credit  crisis  credit  creation  Super  Cycle  debt  overhang  liquidity  trap  ECB  Troika  MarioDraghi  economic  history  Richard  Koo  leverage  recovery  deflation  deflationary  Fiscal  Pact  Schuldenbremse  Germany  underinvestment  Super  Rich  reflate  reflation  Generationengerechtigkeit  1%  oligarchy  plutocracy  No  Representation  Career  Politicians  balance  sheet  recession  Euro  Gold  Standard  ESM  IMF  OECD  banking  union  EEA  Economics  Academia  Academics  Economists  Scholars  Soziale  Marktwirtschaft  income  distribution  inequality  Gini  coefficient  Gesellschaft  society  Yanis  Varoufakis  financial  crisis  economic  model  econometrics  social  theory  monetary  union  Chicago  School  poverty  economic  history  austerity  George  Osborne  David  Cameron  UK  nasty  party  Richard  Koo  macroeconomics  macroeconomic  policy  macroprudential  policy  aggregate  demand  Capital  Expenditure  income  tax  receipts  deflation  deflationary  Universal  Basic  class  warfare 
april 2016 by asterisk2a
Griechenland: Warum ein Schuldenschnitt jetzt richtig ist - SPIEGEL ONLINE
[ nennt es doch schuldumschreibung!? longer dated lower interest rates. es wurden ja unsere banken in europa gerettet in 2009/10/11. ] Es ist die richtige Ankündigung zur rechten Zeit: Griechenland wird einen Schuldenschnitt bekommen - auch wenn die Kanzlerin das nicht so aussprechen will. Klingt seltsam, aber so funktioniert Europa nun einmal. // &! bit.ly/1No5spK - Griechenland-Hilfe: Merkels Schneeballsystem - Am Mittwoch stimmt der Bundestag über das dritte Hilfspaket für Griechenland ab. Das Risiko für die deutschen Steuerzahler: ein dreistelliger Milliardenbetrag. Doch die Kanzlerin verschleiert das - die Folgen werden fatal sein.
debt  restructuring  Greece  IMF  bailout  2015  Angela  Merkel  Wolfgang  Schäuble  Career  Politicians  PR  spin  doctor  EFSF  ESM  Troika  Germany  bank  bailout  economic  history  Leadership  manufactured  consent  propaganda  populism  corporate  state  Lügenpresse  public  perception  public  awareness  smoking  gun  smoke  mirror  public  discourse  fairness  Generationengerechtigkeit  ChristineLagarde  European  Union  fiscal  political  theory  social  contract  debtoverhang  policy  error  policy  folly  lost  generation  lost  decade  GFC  recovery  trust  distrust  trustagent  voter  turnout 
august 2015 by asterisk2a
Die ungehörten Warnungen des IWF | Report Mainz | Das Erste - YouTube
Schon vor fünf Jahren sollte ein Hilfsprogramm Griechenland vor der Pleite retten. Doch führende Ökonomen des IWF waren schon damals mehr als skeptisch. // it's not a bailout for Greece. it's a bank bailout for France, Belgium, Germany and co. Its was always a bank bailout. // no debt restructuring, no debt haircut = no long-term solution.
Greece  bailout  IMF  economic  history  2015  sovereign  debt  crisis  ESM  EFSF  austerity  Troika  bank  bailout  zombie  banks  TBTF  toobigtofail  Angela  Merkel  Career  Politicians  No  Representation  European  Union  Alternativlos  TINA  Wolfgang  Schäuble  ChristineLagarde  debt  servitude  debt  jubilee  debt  restructuring 
august 2015 by asterisk2a
Greece debt crisis: MPs back bailout reform plan - BBC News
[post-referendum ] Greece's parliament has backed a government package of economic reforms aimed at ending the country's debt crisis and securing a new bailout [ to pay off previous bailout payments that are coming-up; EFSF, IMF, ECB ] After a late-night debate, PM Alexis Tsipras won overwhelming cross-party support but saw some of his own MPs vote against him or abstain. Earlier, he admitted that some elements of the package fell short of his party's anti-austerity promises. The proposals are to be studied by eurozone finance ministers later. EU sources says Greece's creditors - the European Commission, the European Central Bank and the International Monetary Fund - believe the plan is positive. Eurozone officials are also expected to discuss Greek requests for some of the debt to be rescheduled. Mr Tsipras is asking for €53.5bn ($59.47bn) to cover Greece's debts (re-payments and interest) until 2018. [...] given in to demands [&] measures rejected in a referendum last Sunday.
Syriza  Grexit  referendum  democracy  Alexis  Tsipras  Yanis  Varoufakis  Greece  Career  Politicians  bullying  No  Representation  2015  bailout  IMF  EFSF  ECB  austerity  Great  Depression  lost  decade  lost  generation  economic  history  Eurogroup  Troika  zombie  banks  insolvent  Insolvenzverschleppung  insolvency  Bank  of  Greece  ELA  ESM  creditor 
july 2015 by asterisk2a
Greece debt crisis puts Germany's Merkel under pressure - BBC News
Of all of its creditors, Greece owes Germany the most - €68bn (£49bn; $75bn). // should compromise and change Germany internal debate whether we want to see 70% of our money or non at all in case of a Grexit in the next 5 years because Greece can no get back to economic growth and a real nationalistic and populistic elected gov that make Syriza look pale in comparison does elect to exit Euro voluntarily. Short sighted ideological national interest will bring worse than they can imagine - destroying the european dream and damaging europe as a whole as economy long-term (ie deflationary pressures ECB fights with more money, instead with political long-term resolution in the interest of THE EUROPEAN UNION, SOLIDARITY, they already did since GFC with their dither strategy, putting plasters on fault lines. Angela Merkel could have become the true Queen of Europe history would have remembered her. But she can only be national career politician & a lab worker (has science degree).
Career  Politicians  compromise  Grexit  bailout  debt  restructuring  haircut  EFSF  IMF  ECB  ESM  Greece  sustainable  sustainability  economic  history  austerity  national  interest  European  Union  policy  folly  policy  error  Angela  Merkel  Sigmar  Gabriel  Wolfgang  Schäuble  Troika  ChristineLagarde  Eurogroup  MarioDraghi  common  sense  common  good  Great  Depression  lost  decade  lost  generation  zombie  banks  short-term  thinking  short-term  view  ideology  dogma  populism  propaganda  Nationalism  media  conglomerate  Lügenpresse  No  Representation  faultlines  structural  imbalance  GFC  recovery  solidarity  manufactured  consent  corporate  state  Gesellschaft  European  fiscal  transferunion  Eurobond  Leadership  vision 
july 2015 by asterisk2a
Athens capitulates to creditors - BBC News
"Greece: Prior Actions - Policy Commitments and Actions to be taken in consultation with the EC/ECB/IMF staff", it feels very familiar. That familiarity stems from its great similarity to the bailout proposals put to Greece by the creditors - the eurozone governments, the European Central Bank and the IMF - last month. Pretty much everything wanted by the creditors is there - with the odd tweak or softening, but nothing which looks as though it ought to be noxious to them. So there is a pledge for budget surpluses rising in steps to 3.5% of GDP or national income by 2018 [< in their dreams only]. // The referendum was a last ditch effort by Syriza to get better deal. Eurogroup, Troika, IMF, ECB called it a bluff and accepted a possible Grexit and according to Juncker did prepare for it. No we are where we were when Syriza was elected and had to negotiate for a new bailout tranche, to pay off other bailout tranches re-payment coming up (IMF, EFSF, ECB) &! bbc.in/1INY5Gu MPs to deceide
Grexit  referendum  Career  Politicians  Alexis  Tsipras  Yanis  Varoufakis  Syriza  Troika  Eurogroup  ECB  IMF  Jean-Claude  Juncker  European  Union  Wolfgang  Schäuble  Angela  Merkel  MarioDraghi  EFSF  ChristineLagarde  Jeroen  Dijsselbloemm  Germany  France  FrancoisHollande  No  Representation  economic  history  austerity  dogma  bailout  ELA  ideology  Great  Depression  lost  decade  lost  generation  ESM  debt  jubilee  debt  restructuring  European  bullying  transparency  accountability  Principle  haircut  creditor  sovereign  debt  crisis  sustainable  sustainability  debtoverhang  balance  sheet  recession  zombie  banks  Bank  of  Greece  insolvent  Insolvenzverschleppung  insolvency 
july 2015 by asterisk2a
Gregor Gysi, DIE LINKE: »Sie wollen die linke Regierung in Griechenland beseitigen« - YouTube
[ "Alternativlos" & 'Jeder fuer sich selbst.' ] Die Rettungspakete galten nie den Bürgerinnen und Bürgern, sondern immer den Banken. Auch bei uns wurden 480 Milliarden Euro binnen einer Woche für die Rettung der Banken beschlossen. Wenn man mal 1 Million Euro für einen kulturellen oder sozialen Zweck braucht, dann bekommt man ein Nein, aber bei den Banken gibt es immer nur ein Ja. [...] Ich habe Ihnen zugehört, Frau Bundeskanzlerin. Ihre Rede kann ich wie folgt zusammenfassen: Die griechische Regierung hat alles falsch gemacht, und Sie, Herr Schäuble und die europäischen Institutionen, also der Internationale Währungsfonds, die Europäische Kommission und die Europäische Zentralbank, haben alles richtig gemacht. // via bit.ly/1R6V2yA
GroKo  Angela  Merkel  European  Union  bailout  Grexit  PIGS  PIIGS  EFSF  EFSM  ESM  IMF  Germany  Leadership  austerity  ideology  Fiscal  Pact  Schuldenbremse  Wolfgang  Schäuble  Jean-Claude  Juncker  zombie  banks  GFC  sovereign  debt  crisis  democracy  No  Representation  EuropeanSystemicRiskBoard  European  History  Rechtsruck  propaganda  manufactured  consent  Sigmar  Gabriel  solidarity  Gesellschaft  Lügenpresse  investigative  journalism  journalismus  journalism  Syriza  political  economy  political  theory  France  economic  election  campaign  promises  Protest  Partei  Protest  Party  Podemos  Career  Politicians  short-term  thinking  short-term  view  Sozialer  Abstieg  squeezed  middle  class  hartz-iv  welfare  state  Public  Services  Social  Services  fairness  Super  Rich  1%  tax  evasion  tax  avoidance  crony  capitalism  sovereignty  Troika  corporate  state  Toff  Establishment  Privileged  poverty  Gini  coefficient  mobility  UK  ChristineLagarde  political  science  political  error  political  folly  PR  relations  spin  doctor  banking  transferunion  currency  monetary  Eurobond  ECB  MarioDraghi  trichet  compromise  Politics 
july 2015 by asterisk2a
Griechenland: Was Angela Merkel noch alles angeboten hat - SPIEGEL ONLINE
Für den Fall, dass Tsipras die Verlängerung des aktuellen zweiten Hilfspakets zu den veränderten Konditionen akzeptiert hätte, bot Merkel ihm dem Vernehmen nach in einem letzten Gespräch am Freitag vergangener Woche unter anderem Folgendes an: ein drittes Hilfsprogramm, Schuldenerleichterungen, also eine teilweise Umschuldung, Investitionen in Höhe von rund 35 Milliarden Euro. // BUT NO debt jubilee/haircut and admitting that it was a EU bank bailout through the back door. // Counter-off on day 0 from Syriza; ESM to take on debt for two years. Another delay. Country will NOT start to grow in two years to pay off EFSF and IMF ... bit.ly/1Nsrupr &! IMF pushes back on default scenario - bit.ly/1NsrpSz &! Germany paid 85bn to EU banks (aka Greece Debt payments via EFSF, IMF and ECB ELA liability and bonds that ECB bought via their bank refinance programms (LTRO) via BuBa capital ownership of ECB) in case of default - bit.ly/1Hrx4ra // &! bbc.in/1Knh8qM &! bbc.in/1Knh8qM
Grexit  default  IMF  EFSF  Angela  Merkel  PIGS  Wolfgang  Schäuble  European  Union  Career  Politicians  economic  history  sovereign  debt  crisis  zombie  banks  GFC  recovery  Great  Depression  Greece  austerity  Troika  ECB  Syriza  democracy  solidarity  political  error  political  economy  political  folly  policy  error  policy  folly  ESM  ELA  BuBa  Bundesbank  LTRO  TLTRO  MarioDraghi  Jean-Claude  Juncker 
june 2015 by asterisk2a
ESM: Kreditprogramm ausgereizt - Nachfrage fehlt im Euro-Raum - SPIEGEL ONLINE
Der Bankenrettungsschirm ESM soll jetzt helfen, Unternehmen mit Krediten zu versorgen. Ein Vorschlag von beeindruckender Mutlosigkeit. Wesentlich wirksamer wäre es, das Geld per Hubschrauber über der Eurozone abzuwerfen. [...] Wäre es nicht besser, sich zunächst einmal zu fragen, welches Problem wir hier eigentlich lösen wollen? Ist Liquidität wirklich das Problem? Wohl kaum. Die Europäische Zentralbank legt dauernd neue Liquiditätsprogramme für den Bankensektor auf. Und was passiert? Die Banken wollen das Geld nicht und zahlen lieber die alten Kredite schnell zurück. Wenn Liquidität nicht mehr das Problem ist, wie soll dann ein Kreditprogramm helfen? [...] Firmen wollen keine Kredite, sie wollen Aufträge +!+!+!+ http://blogs.wsj.com/moneybeat/2014/09/18/ecbs-tltro-program-analysts-roundup/ +!+!+!+ ZIRP also never arrive for businesses.
ESM  TLTRO  LTRO  ABS  monetary  transmission  mechanism  ECB  fiscal  policy  Pact  infrastructure  investment  business  investment  creditcrunch  creditcrisis  Europe  monetary  policy  unconventional  monetary  policy  business  confidence  confidence  trust  trustagent  deleveraging  balance  sheet  recession  debtoverhang  Germany  zombie  banks  ZIRP  NIRP  negative  real  interest  rate  financial  repression  liquidity  trap  lost  decade  lost  generation  Supply  and  Demand  Demand  and  Supply  recovery  greatrecession  BRIC  MINT  Exportweltmeister  USA  UK  flat  world  secular  stagnation  stagnation  stagflation  economic  history  austerity  IMF  Richard  Koo  globalization  globalisation  uncertainty 
september 2014 by asterisk2a
Wolfgang Münchau: Das Billionengrab - SPIEGEL ONLINE
ESM  PIIGSFB  GFC  Europe  zombie  banks  capital  banking  union  banking  crisis  political  folly  bank  crisis  creditcrisis  greatrecession  lostdecade  policy  error  policy  folly  Recapitalisation  debtoverhang  2013  PIGS  creditcrunch  political  error  sovereign  debt  crisis  Recapitalization  PIIGS  greatdepression  deleveraging  balance  sheet  recession 
june 2013 by asterisk2a
Hilfe für Finanzkonzerne: Deutschland bremst Bankenunion aus - SPIEGEL ONLINE
Gerade wegen der Probleme im Bankensektor würden die geldpolitischen Impulse nicht mehr wirken. "Die EZB wird auf Dauer nicht erfolgreich sein können, wenn wir den Bankensektor nicht grundlegend reformieren",
ESM  angelamerkel  monetary  policy  PIIGSFB  monetary  theory  MarioDraghi  Europe  unintended  consequences  zombie  banks  monetary  transmission  mechanism  banking  union  banking  crisis  ECB  monetary  system  political  folly  bank  crisis  Recapitalisation  debtoverhang  2013  Wolfgang  Schäuble  NPL  PIGS  debt  monetisation  creditcrunch  political  error  monetarism  sovereign  debt  crisis  Recapitalization  PIIGS  deleveraging  Germany  debt  monetization  balance  sheet  recession 
june 2013 by asterisk2a
Deutsche Steuerzahler sollen vor dem Sommer Euro-Banken retten | DEUTSCHE WIRTSCHAFTS NACHRICHTEN
Chef der Euro-Gruppe, Dijsselbloem: „Wir arbeiten sehr hart an allen Elementen der Banken-Union. (…) Unsere aktuelle Arbeit konzentriert sich auf zwei Elemente: Die Richtlinie zur Abwicklung von Banken, die sich in Schwierigkeiten befinden, und das zweite Element ist die direkte Rekapitalisierung der Banken. Ob eine direkte Rekapitalisierung der Banken aus Länder, die bereits einem Bailout-Programm unterstehen, rekapitalisiert werden können, ist noch nicht entschieden. (…). Aber wir versuchen, eine Einigung vor der Sommerpause zu erreichen, aber natürlich gibt es keine Garantien.“
Recapitalisation  trustagent  ESM  banking  union  2013  trust  capitalisation  Europe  confidence  creditcrunch  zombie  banks  Recapitalization 
may 2013 by asterisk2a
Keep A Close Eye On This FX Pair | Zero Hedge
Wondering why the Euro is losing steam so quickly this morning after the Eurogroup 'saved' Cyprus? Perhaps this FX cross is the reason... >> unintended consequences :: Russian Oligarchs pulling money out of Europe.   Perhaps this is why Italian and Spanish financials and bonds are weaker... >> http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-03-25/european-markets-sliding-fast >> http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-03-25/word-out-place-sends-europe-tumbling "" accounts with more than 100,000 euros, face losses of 4.2 billion euros. "" And now, the scramble to pull uninsured deposits out of banks everywhere begins. "" !!!
Laiki  ESM  EFSF  trust  bank  restructuring  haircut  confidence  unintended  consequences  European  Commission  zombie  banks  trustagent  bail-in  Troika  ELA  ECB  restructuring  Cyprus  of  Cyprus  bank  crisis  toobigtofail  Russia  zombi  banks  bailout 
march 2013 by asterisk2a
Zypern-Krise: Merkel erhöht den Druck - SPIEGEL ONLINE
Den findet die Bundesregierung inakzeptabel, genau wie wohl auch die Troika aus EU-Kommission, Europäischer Zentralbank (EZB) und Internationalem Währungsfonds (IWF). Und jetzt? "Ich wünsche mir nicht, dass es zu einem Crash kommt", wird die Kanzlerin bei den Liberalen zitiert. Das darf man glauben, Merkel hat immer vor Dominoeffekten in der Euro-Zone im Falle einer Staatspleite gewarnt. Und doch: Ausgeschlossen wird ein Zypern-Bankrott in der Koalition nicht mehr. http://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/soziales/zypern-vier-szenarien-von-kompromiss-bis-staatspleite-a-890419.html
ESM  angelamerkel  Politics  European  Commission  Policy  Error  Troika  ECB  Cyprus  political  folly  Germany  bailout  IMF  folly 
march 2013 by asterisk2a
Euro: Currency Or Prison? | Zero Hedge
Troika and bailout terms are driving Cyprus out of Europe and into Russian hands. http://blogs.wsj.com/marketbeat/2013/03/20/is-the-euro-a-currency-or-a-prison/
contagion  ESM  angelamerkel  Politics  human  tragedy  unintended  consequences  europeanunion  Troika  banking  crisis  ECB  History  European  Project  Cyprus  political  folly  bank  crisis  zombi  banks  policy  folly  Wolfgang  Schäuble  economic  Monetary  Union  sovereign  debt  crisis  austerity  PIIGS  EuropeanCommission  Russia  Germany  bailout  IMF 
march 2013 by asterisk2a
Next: Capital Controls | Zero Hedge
That is precisely the Pandora's box that Europe has now opened, and which it is scrambling to close. How? With the dreaded "contingency plans", among which are such last ditch efforts as capital controls, including "imposing limits on daily withdrawals from bank accounts; capping the amount of money that can be electronically taken out of the country and making these transactions slower to clear; and introducing border checks to cap the amount of cash leaving in the country," most recently utilized in the banana-est of republics such as Argentina. + LEVY ON DEPOSITS "This is an unprecedented assault on individual property rights and every individual in the developed world should take notice, and far from stabilising the eurozone, the bail-out likely heightens contagion risk across the EU." http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-03-19/cyprus-oh-irony
capital-controls  contagion  ESM  trust  economic  history  Europe  confidence  unintended  consequences  trustagent  PIIGS  Cyprus  politcal  folly  bankrun  capital-flight  policy  folly  IMF  bailout 
march 2013 by asterisk2a
S.P.O.N. - Die Spur des Geldes: Hilfe durch Staatsbankrott - SPIEGEL ONLINE
Doch es war Schäubles Ministerium, das die Vermögensabgabe überhaupt ins Spiel brachte. >> Initially 40%, IMF was for it too. Die zyprischen Banken brauchen Kapital, keinen Kredit. > http://www.businessinsider.com/dmitry-rybolovlev-bank-of-cyprus-2013-3 > http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2013-03-20/why-a-russian-bailout-of-cyprus-is-such-a-bad-idea "And Moscow protested loudly when some European leaders wanted to levy stiff taxes on Cypriot bank accounts, a plan that now has been scuppered. [...] “the governments of other European member states are driving the government of Cyprus to seek help from Russia. This is a disaster for the EU. How European leaders handle Cyprus indicates whether the European project and the euro area can lead and prosper.”
ESM  Wolfgang  Schäuble  economic  history  Europe  Laiki  Bank  Troika  banking  crisis  Cyprus  crisis  Bank  of  Cyprus  Russia  Germany  IMF  bailout 
march 2013 by asterisk2a
Zypern-Krise: Wie sich das Land seinen Banken ausgeliefert hat - SPIEGEL ONLINE
Zypern steht vor dem Staatsbankrott, schuld sind vor allem die Banken. Jahrelang profitierte das Land von seinem überdimensionierten Finanzsektor, nun müssten die beiden größten Institute dringend abgewickelt werden. Doch die Regierung in Nikosia schreckt davor zurück - aus einem einzigen Grund. [...] Die Banken sind das eigentliche Problem Zyperns. Völlig überdimensioniert, vollgepumpt mit griechischen Staatsanleihen, de facto schon jetzt pleite. >> http://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/soziales/grossinvestor-pimco-trennt-sich-von-euro-investments-a-889960.html " Pimco glaube, dass es sich bei der Zwangsabgabe nicht nur um einen politischen Fehler der Euro-Retter handle. Stattdessen zeige das Hilfspaket, dass "der Euro weit davon entfernt ist, eine perfekte Reservewährung zu sein". > http://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/soziales/zypern-privatjets-fliegen-besonders-oft-nach-russland-a-889760.html
PIMCO  contagion  ESM  Political  Folly  trust  economic  history  Europe  confidence  unintended  consequences  zombie  banks  Laiki  Bank  sovereign  debt  crisis  cyprus  trustagent  BIS  PIIGS  banking  crisis  ECB  bankruptcy  Bank  of  crisis  IMF  bailout  policy 
march 2013 by asterisk2a
BBC News - Cyprus holds crisis talks after bailout rejection
Political leaders in Cyprus are meeting for emergency talks after its parliament overwhelmingly rejected an international bailout deal. Cyprus needs 17bn. Cyprus Parliament rejected initial & amended bailout terms. Banks closed 3rd business day in a row. >> http://bigstory.ap.org/article/cyprus-church-assets-disposal-state >> http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/03/20/us-cyprus-parliament-idUSBRE92G03I20130320 >> Greece was a unique and special case. Cyprus is a unique and special case. One wonders, and with good reason, what or who will be the next unique and special case. http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-03-20/when-unique-and-special-cases-arent >> http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-03-20/european-rumor-leak-denial-trading-pattern-back >> http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-03-20/larry-fink-cyprus-i-dont-really-care >> http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-03-19/cyprus-its-not-about-numbers >> http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-03-19/what-does-no-vote-mean-cyprus-and-eurozone
ESM  angelamerkel  corralito  Greece  2013  economic  history  Europe  unintended  consequences  zombie  banks  sovereign  debt  crisis  Troika  PIIGS  banking  crisis  Cyprus  bankrun  bank  crisis  Russia  Germany  democracy  Political  folly  policy  folly  bailout  IMF 
march 2013 by asterisk2a
Saxo Bank CEO: "This Is Full-Blown Socialism And I Still Can't Believe It Happened" | Zero Hedge
This is a breach of fundamental property rights, dictated to a small country by foreign powers and it must make every bank depositor in Europe shiver. [...] Depositors in other prospective bailout countries must be running scared - is it safe to keep money in an Italian, Spanish or Greek bank any more? [...] This is a major, MAJOR game changer and the fallout will be with us for a long time to come. [...] Market reaction? it must be very good for gold - and for safe-haven countries like Switzerland, Singapore [...] This is full-blown socialism and I still cannot believe this really happened. >>> http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-03-16/after-cyprus-who-next >> http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-03-16/cyprus-uncharted-territory-sets-sell-side-scrambling >> http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-03-16/socgens-post-mortem-cyprus-unique-stability-levy-aka-deposit-confiscation
ESM  PIIGS  banking  crisis  2013  Politics  Cyprus  bankrun  bank  crisis  Europe  sovereign  debt  crisis  bailout  IMF 
march 2013 by asterisk2a
For Everyone Shocked By What Just Happened... And Why This Is Just The Beginning | Zero Hedge
Today, lots of people woke up in shock and horror to what happened in Cyprus: a forced capital reallocation mandated by political elites under the guise of an "equity investment" in insolvent banks, which is really code for a "coercive, mandatory wealth tax." If less concerned about political correctness, one could say that what just happened was daylight robbery from savers to banks and the status quo. These same people may be even more shocked to learn that today's Cypriot "resolution" is merely the first of many such coercive interventions into personal wealth, first in Europe, and then everywhere else. [...] And with inflation woefully late in appearing and "inflating away" said debt overhang, Europe first is finally moving to Plan B, and is using Cyrprus as its Guniea Pig. http://www.scribd.com/doc/130778664/BCG-Back-to-Mesopotamia
debtoverhang  ESM  2013  Politics  debt  jubilee  financial  repression  economic  history  Europe  reflation  debt  bubble  sovereign  debt  crisis  PIIGS  greatdepression  deflation  debt  restructuring  Cyprus  inflation  greatrecession  bailout  IMF  balance  sheet  recession 
march 2013 by asterisk2a
Hilfen für Griechenland belasten Bundeshaushalt - SPIEGEL ONLINE
Die neuen Zusagen an Griechenland reißen ein Loch in den Bundeshaushalt: Allein im kommenden Jahr muss Deutschland mit 730 Millionen Euro weniger auskommen als geplant. Kritiker des Pakets sprechen von "politischer Insolvenzverschleppung".

Das neue Hilfspaket für Griechenland belastet den deutschen Haushalt schon im kommenden Jahr mit rund 730 Millionen Euro. Dies ergibt sich aus Äußerungen, die Bundesfinanzminister Wolfgang Schäuble (CDU) am Dienstag zu den neuen Hilfen für Athen machte. Die Summe setzt sich aus zwei Posten zusammen: Gewinnen aus dem Anleihenkaufprogramm der Europäischen Zentralbank (EZB), die fortan an Griechenland überwiesen werden sollen, sowie einer Zinssenkung auf bereits gewährte Kredite für das Land.
austerity  ESM  EFSF  IMF  bailout  2012  sovereign  debt  crisis  Europe  PIIGS  Greece  Insolvenzverschleppung  germany  ECB 
november 2012 by asterisk2a
Griechenland: Ein Schuldenschnitt würde die Steuerzahler treffen - SPIEGEL ONLINE
IWF und EZB verlangen einen radikalen Schuldenschnitt für Griechenland. Aber wer soll die Kosten tragen? Die meisten Gläubiger haben sich längst abgesichert gegen drohende Verluste - am Ende zahlen die Bürger die Euro-Zone.

[...]

Rund 63 Milliarden Euro würden Griechenland erlassen, wenn die Euro-Partner nach aktuellem Stand auf die Hälfte ihrer Forderungen verzichten würden. Deutschland müsste etwa 17,5 Milliarden Euro beisteuern. Angesichts einer griechischen Gesamtschuldenlast von 304 Milliarden Euro wäre die Entlastung nicht besonders groß.

Experten glauben deshalb, dass langfristig noch mehr nötig sein wird, um Griechenland zu retten. "Ich halte es für illusorisch, jetzt einen großen Schuldenschnitt zu machen und zu glauben, dass es damit getan wäre", sagt Ökonom Fuest. "Aber man könnte dem Land mit einem begrenzten Schnitt zumindest einmal zwei Jahre Luft verschaffen."
confidence  trustagent  trust  Politics  Europe  ESM  EFSF  France  Germany  PIIGS  sovereign  debt  crisis  2012  haircut  bailout  Greece  ECB  IMF 
november 2012 by asterisk2a
Kommentar: Der Schuldenschnitt in Griechenland wird teuer - SPIEGEL ONLINE
Aus Furcht vor den deutschen Wählern sträubt sich Merkels Regierung gegen einen Schuldenschnitt und die Erkenntnis: Wir alle werden für Griechenland zahlen müssen.
[...]
Schon jetzt ist der Unmut gewaltig. Daran sind nicht nur die Schludergriechen schuld, sondern auch die Bundesregierung. Merkel und ihre Koalitionäre haben es lange vernachlässigt, den Menschen zu erklären, warum es sinnvoll ist, für Europa und auch für Griechenland einzutreten. Wie kaum eine andere Regierung haben sie die Stimmung gegen die Griechen geschürt und Argumente geliefert, warum man möglichst hart mit den Schuldensündern umgehen müsse. Nun wird es für sie umso schwerer zu erklären, warum man denselben Griechen plötzlich Geld schenken soll.

Es wird kein Weg daran vorbeiführen, dass Deutschland und andere Gläubigerstaaten für Griechenland zahlen - ob man das dann Schuldenschnitt, Pleite, Schuldenerlass oder Transfer nennt, ist zweitrangig. Wichtig ist nur, dass die verantwortlichen Politiker endlich den Mut..
trustagent  confidence  truth  economics  economic  history  IMF  austerity  greatrecession  2012  bailout  ESM  EFSF  PIIGS  haircut  Greece  angelamerkel  Politics 
november 2012 by asterisk2a
Prof Martin Feldsein on Spanish economy and Euro (28Sept12) - YouTube
Report about anti austerity protests.
Report about politicians in Portugal taking a step back.

Spain, Catalonia, Politics, ...

Social fabric breaks apart.

Decline is subliminal. In-front our eyes, hardly noticeable.
confidence  trust  economic  history  Euro  fiscal  policy  ECB  IMF  fiscal  sovereignty  Pact  Troika  ESM  economics  MarianoRajoy  Catalonia  lostgeneration  greatrecession  Europe  Politics  social  contract  PIIGS  sovereign  debt  crisis  2012  Spain  Portugal  austerity 
september 2012 by asterisk2a
Sparprogramm in Spanien: Tiefer in die Krise - SPIEGEL ONLINE
Für Spanien haben entscheidende Wochen begonnen. Mit einem radikalen Sparprogramm will Ministerpräsident Rajoy den Weg für neue ESM-Hilfen frei machen. Doch die Regierung geht damit ein doppeltes Risiko ein. Sie verschärft die Rezession und bringt die eigene Bevölkerung gegen sich auf.

Die viertgrößte Wirtschaft der Euro-Zone wird ihren schon 2011 eingeschlagenen Sparkurs noch einmal drastisch verschärfen.

Der Etat werde im kommenden Jahr um 40 Milliarden Euro entlastet, sagte Finanzminister Cristobal Montoro in Madrid. Die einzelnen Ministerien müssen demnach im Durchschnitt 8,9 Prozent einsparen.

Regierungschef Rajoy steckt in einem Dilemma: Einerseits muss er sparen, will er die mit der EU vereinbarten Defizitziele auch nur annähernd erreichen - andererseits riskiert er durch allzu harte Kürzungen einen Volksaufstand, der das Land in eine tiefe politische Krise stürzen könnte.
unemployment  politics  ECB  sovereign  debt  crisis  OMT  ESM  Europe  property  bubble  greatrecession  2012  austerity  MarianoRajoy  Spain 
september 2012 by asterisk2a
Spain's 2013 budget a lose-lose act for Rajoy - YouTube
Deficit to widen because of no growth ...
thus keep on going with spending cuts to meet deficit targets.

Spain is very likely to request a bailout (via OMT and ESM) at the last minute ... somewhere in 2013 eventually.

Then it is about Portugal and Italy.
OMT  ESM  PIIGS  budget  deficit  2012  Europe  greatrecession  sovereign  debt  crisis  Spain  MarianoRajoy 
september 2012 by asterisk2a
ESM to invest mainly in official euro debt rated AA and up – Bloomberg | ForexLive
ESM turns into a bad bank to lift PIIGS and European banking system.

ESM To Invest Mainly In Official Euro Debt Rated AA And Up
ESM to be able to diversify into bank debt as it expands
ESM to use derivatives for risk management purposes only
ESM plans “plain vanilla” borrowing strategy to lure investments

Guidelnes in documents obtained by Bloomberg News.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-09-25/esm-purchase-details-leaked

The ESM will keep at least 15% of its maximum lending volume, or EU75b out of an ultimate EU500b, in “assets of the highest creditworthiness” as per guidelines obtained by Bloomberg News.
reflation  OMT  ECB  2012  Europe  sovereign  debt  crisis  bank  crisis  banking  crisis  ESM 
september 2012 by asterisk2a
Münchau: Verfassungsgericht überlässt Politik Lösung der Euro-Krise - SPIEGEL ONLINE
Bisher haben die Richter die nationale Souveränität verteidigt - diese hat sich mit dem ESM-Spruch erledigt. Karlsruhe hat den Weg frei gemacht für eine Fiskalunion.

[...]

Auch der Hinweis auf eine formelle Haftungsobergrenze ist naiv. Die größte Gefahr für Deutschland besteht nicht in den offiziellen Finanzrisiken des Rettungsschirms, sondern in den nicht quantifizierbaren Risiken, etwa durch das innereuropäische Zahlungssystem Target 2 oder durch erneuten Kapitalbedarf von Banken im Falle eines Zusammenbruchs des Euro.

[...]

! Go-Ahead signal for future bailouts in return for giving up fiscal sovereignty !

Mit dem jetzigen Urteil signalisiert das Verfassungsgericht hingegen grünes Licht. Denn die Kombination aus einem permanenten Rettungsschirm, einem nicht kündbaren Fiskalpakt und unbegrenzten Bond-Käufen durch die Europäische Zentralbank laufen genau auf eine Fiskalunion hinaus. Ein Urteil gegen den ESM wäre die letzte rechtliche Möglichkeit gewesen, den Trend zu stoppen.
europeanunion  Politics  Kafka  Franz  Kafka  philosophy  fiscal  policy  monetary  policy  OMT  ECB  fiscal  sovereignty  2012  bank  crisis  banking  union  banking  crisis  sovereign  debt  crisis  PIIGS  Grexit  target2-system  EFSF  ESM  Europe  democracy  liberty  European  Pact  Germany  German  Constitutional  Court 
september 2012 by asterisk2a
Das Urteil des Bundesverfassungsgerichts (Dokumentation) - SPIEGEL ONLINE
Die deutsche Haftungsobergrenze von 190 Milliarden Euro ist laut Urteil von Politikern mehrfach als unantastbar bezeichnet worden und auch in den ESM-Reglungen festgeschrieben. Trotzdem sehen die Richter Vorsicht geboten:

"Die Bundesrepublik Deutschland muss deutlich zum Ausdruck bringen, dass sie an den ESM-Vertrag insgesamt nicht gebunden sein kann, falls sich der von ihr geltend gemachte Vorbehalt als unwirksam erweisen sollte."

Fiscal Pact
Nach Art 109 Abs 3 Satz 2 in Verbindung mit Art. 115 Abs. 2 Satz 3 GG kann bei einer konjunkturellen Entwicklung, die von der Normallage abweicht, sowie bei Naturkatastrophen oder außergewöhnlichen Notsituationen, die sich der Kontrolle des Staates entziehen und die staatliche Finanzlage erheblich beeinträchtigen, von den Defizitvorgaben abgewichen werden."

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance/thomaspascoe/100019964/german-constitutional-court-ratifies-esm-bailout-but-that-wont-save-the-euro/
PIIGS  sovereign  debt  crisis  OMT  2012  German  Constitutional  Court  Europe  Fiscal  Pact  EFSF  ESM  Germany 
september 2012 by asterisk2a
Spain and the markets: The Spanish patient | The Economist
A full bail-out of the euro area’s fourth-largest economy is looming

The Spanish government must borrow €385 billion until the end of 2014 to cover its budget deficit and other needs such as bond redemptions, according to economists at Credit Suisse. Even if the IMF chips in a third as in previous bail-outs, European lenders would have to find €250 billion or so. They have already committed €100 billion to rescuing Spanish banks, so for other emergencies they would have only €150 billion of the €500 billion now in their rescue kitties.

The plight of Spain and the danger of its sickness spreading to Italy call for a decisive countermove by Germany and the ECB. One being discussed would be to give the ESM a banking licence, which would magnify its resources by allowing it to borrow from the central bank. The graver the euro crisis gets, the bigger the response has to be—and the harder it is to sell to sceptical northern electorates.
uncertainty  Politics  trustagent  confidence  trust  policy  folly  policy  error  ECB  Italy  EFSF  ESM  sovereign  debt  crisis  PIIGS  austerity  greatrecession  2012  Spain  bailout 
august 2012 by asterisk2a
"Did Somebody Repeal The Laws Of Mathematics?" | ZeroHedge
Back then (2010), the general opinion was that if the contagion spread to Spain the game was over because there wasn’t enough money with which to bail out an economy the size of The Kingdom of Spain. I’m not sure exactly what happened— maybe I wasn’t paying attention—but suddenly, almost two years on and in an environment where even the rich nations of Europe are seeing an undeniable slide towards recession, there is no talk about Spain being ‘too-big-to-bail’ anymore.

-

Looking at it all :: the market (Spanish gov showed them some slides ...) assumes that Spain will get out of recession by 2013 with pa growth of 1.6% as internal demand will rise again.

*make one speechless*
Germany  bipolar  disorder  Stockholm  Syndrome  ESM  SMP  EFSF  Italy  toobigtofail  policy  folly  policy  error  contagion  2010  austerity  greatrecession  2012  PIIGS  Spain  MarioDraghi  ECB  centralbanks  unintended  consequences  politics  Europe  sovereign  debt  crisis 
august 2012 by asterisk2a
Draghi: EZB will wieder Staatsanleihen kaufen und Euro retten - SPIEGEL ONLINE
- Draghi sounded very Fed like; speculation now that they might use SMP non-standard monetary policy tool again.
- also I personally got the impression they want to safe Euro and thus the banking system. But necessarily not Greece. Greece and other problematic sovereigns were not mentioned. If Greece were to exit - they could to another LTRO.
- also analysts speculate that ECB could do something with ESM together in the future.

- Everything else considered; ECB can not solve problems of sovereigns. Actions are only a sedative against the pain and these sedatives (non-standard measures) will be discounted by market over time now faster than the last time.

http://www.forexlive.com/blog/2012/07/26/hes-here-better-late-than-never-draghi-euro-area-much-stronger-than-people-acknowledge-today/

Within our mandate ECB ready to do whatever it takes to preserve the euro

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/quick-reminder-effectiveness-ecbs-bond-buying
LTRO  ESM  EFSF  SMP  MarioDraghi  2012  PIIGS  Europe  sovereign  debt  crisis  velocity  of  money  moneysupply  monetary  theory  monetary  policy  System  ECB 
july 2012 by asterisk2a
Spanien-Krise: Mogelpackung vor dem Bundestag - SPIEGEL ONLINE
eines der vertracktesten Probleme in der Euro-Krise geknackt worden sei: die Verwobenheit zwischen Staaten und ihren Banken. Indem Spanien seine Banken rettete, geriet der Staat selbst in Schwierigkeiten. Genau das war vor einigen Jahren auch das Problem in Irland. Der irische Staat hatte kein Schuldenproblem, bis er auf deutschen Druck anfing, mit Milliardenaufwand seine Banken zu retten [ to assume their debt obligations ].
angelamerkel  ange  Germany  ESM  2012  banking  crisis  GFC  bank  crisis  sovereign  debt  crisis  bailout  moralhazard  Spain  Ireland 
july 2012 by asterisk2a
Euro Bank Supervisor Faces Hurdles - WSJ.com
Setting up a powerful euro-zone banking supervisor, a significant move toward closer economic union within the 17-nation currency bloc, was a German condition for its agreement to allow the bloc's bailout fund to recapitalize banks without first lending the money to their host government.

Bypassing governments is meant to help Spain, where worries have mounted that Madrid is becoming overloaded with debt as it tries to shore up its struggling banks.

"There is a pressure to move ahead relatively quickly," said one senior finance official from a euro-zone country. He added that even under the best of circumstances, getting the supervisor up and running would take nine to 12 months.

* Well, they just have 6 months.
moralhazard  European  Bank  Supervision  politics  toobigtofail  sovereign  debt  crisis  Europe  ECB  bailout  banking  crisis  crisis  PIIGS  Spain  germany  2012  EU  Bank  Supervision  EMU  Bank  Oversight  Fiscal  Pact  ESM 
july 2012 by asterisk2a
Why the EU summit decisions may destabilise government bond markets | vox
!! Only the ECB can stabilise bond markets !!

The only way to stabilise the government bond markets is to involve the ECB, either indirectly by giving a banking license to the ESM so that it can draw on the resources of the ECB (see Gros and Mayer 2010), or by direct interventions by the ECB. But the European leaders were unable (unwilling) to take that necessary step to stabilise the Eurozone.

The ECB is the only institution that can prevent panic in the sovereign bond markets from pushing countries into a bad equilibrium, because as a money-creating institution it has an infinite capacity to buy government bonds. The fact that resources are infinite is key to be able to stabilise bond rates. It is the only way to gain credibility in the market.

The SMP is the wrong precedent

**
My take, I am only buying half of the analysis. Outright bond buying would need a treaty change!? Another concern is rampant inflation expectations causing local bubbles.
bailout  greatrecession  inflation  expectations  IOU  fiscal  policy  Pact  lenderoflastresort  Eurobond  PIIGS  EMU  moralhazard  politics  Economics  monetary  theory  monetary  policy  trustagent  trust  ZIRP  QE  LTRO  SMP  ECB  EFSF  ESM  sovereign  debt  crisis 
july 2012 by asterisk2a
Wolfgang Münchau: Merkel hat auf dem Euro-Gipfel nichts aufgegeben - SPIEGEL ONLINE
Die Märkte waren in der Euro-Krise oft langsam, aber wenn sie erst einmal etwas geschnallt hatten, dann waren sie gnadenlos.

Das Problem ist, dass die Bundeskanzlerin sich in eine Ecke manövriert hat, aus der sie kaum wieder herauskommt.

[...] Und just zu diesem Zeitpunkt (2H 2012/1H 2013) schwächelt die Weltwirtschaft, von den USA bis nach China. Das bedeutet, dass sich die Krisendynamik zunächst verschlimmern wird. In den Problemstaaten der Euro-Zone werden die haushaltspolitischen Ziele in diesem Jahr alle verfehlt, und die Schulden steigen weiter an.

Ich sehe keine Lösung, außer der Einführung von Euro-Bonds oder zumindest einer kurzfristige Ausweitung der Rettungsschirme. Beides wird es nicht geben, solange sich die politische und juristische Meinung in Deutschland nicht ändert.

Ich komme daher zu dem Schluss, dass die Wahrscheinlichkeit eines Auseinanderbrechens des Euros seit dem Gipfel eher noch gestiegen ist.
EFSF  ECB  ESM  greatrecession  2012  Eurobond  sovereign  debt  crisis  Europe  EMU  PIIGS  Germany  MarianoRajoy  FrancoisHollande  mariomonti  angelamerkel 
july 2012 by asterisk2a
Euro-Krise: Hans-Werner Sinn ruft zu Protest gegen Bankenunion auf - SPIEGEL ONLINE
Chief of Ifo Institute (Germany) drums up support to protest against Bankunion (EU Banks have 3x debt than Germany already got, Bankunion raises bailout moral hazard and insures continuation of TBTF) and risk of Target-2 balance [Bundesbank] if EMU would break up. Calls for public protest by citizens. EU Summit was first example of power of PIIGS over Core … ala ‘if you don’t agree to that, hell will come’.
sovereign  debt  crisis  bailout  EFSF  Germany  unintended  consequences  politics  target2-system  2012  angelamerkel  PIIGS  EMU  ESM  Ifo 
july 2012 by asterisk2a
Wie Monti sich beim Euro-Gipfel gegen Merkel durchsetzte - SPIEGEL ONLINE
Nach EU Summit ...

Mit aller Härte und allen Finessen spielte Italiens Regierungschef Monti beim Euro-Poker in Brüssel. Der gewiefte Taktiker und EU-Profi brauchte den Sieg über Kanzlerin Merkel. Sonst wäre es der Anfang von seinem Ende in Rom gewesen.

Italiens Regierungschef hatte gegen den Widerstand der gut situierten Nordländer, angeführt von Deutschlands Kanzlerin Angela Merkel, neue Instrumente gegen die Euro-Krise durchgesetzt. Sie erlauben künftig finanzielle Hilfe aus dem EU-Rettungsfonds, ohne dass die Empfänger sich dafür massive Sparauflagen aufbürden lassen müssen.

Kühles Kalkül mit dem Horror

Gemeinsam tüftelten sie auch eine kleine Erpressung aus. Weder das milliardenschwere Konjunktur- und Wachstumsprogramm, noch die Einführung einer Finanzmarkt-Steuer werde es auf dem Gipfel geben, wenn Merkel nicht bei der Entlastung der spanischen Banken und der Begrenzung italienischer Schuldzinsen mitspiele. Dann scheitere der Gipfel eben total. Mit allen Konsequenzen. ...
EMU  Germany  PIIGS  angelamerkel  ESM  2012  sovereign  debt  crisis  compromise  diplomacy  Spain  Italy  Europe  politics  mariomonti 
june 2012 by asterisk2a
Kommentar zu Merkels Rolle auf dem EU-Gipfel - SPIEGEL ONLINE
Nach EU Summit

Der Rettungsschirm ESM soll künftig auch direkt Banken unterstützen können - das könnte vor allem Spanien helfen, denn so werden die ESM-Hilfen nicht mehr auf die spanische Schuldenlast angerechnet. Und Staaten sollen nun Geld aus dem Rettungsschirm erhalten können, ohne im Gegenzug ein strenges Überwachungsprogramm zu akzeptieren - das hilft vor allem Italien. Das hochverschuldete Land hat nun zumindest die theoretische Option, ESM-Geld zu beantragen, ohne sich dem Troika-Kuratel zu unterwerfen.

Doch direktes Geld an die Banken soll auch erst dann fließen, wenn eine wirksame Europäische Bankenaufsicht installiert ist. Das wird dauern.

Es war wichtig, Monti in Brüssel öffentlichkeitswirksam einen Punkt landen zu lassen.
EFSF  compromise  democracy  FrancoisHollande  Germany  angelamerkel  diplomacy  political  economy  political  ec  MarianoRajoy  Spain  Italy  mariomonti  Politics  Europe  Fiscal  Pact  ECB  ESM  2012  sovereign  debt  crisis  banking  crisis  PIIGS 
june 2012 by asterisk2a
Lethal Embrace? A Thought Experiment | Institute for New Economic Thinking
sovereign debt crisis and the bank crisis, conjoined twins

The problem Europe now faces is that monetary union, a fait accompli, left in place the historical symbiosis between national banking systems and national sovereignties, as well as the pattern of thinking formed by generations of experience with that symbiosis. As a consequence, when the crisis hit, national banking systems stepped in to help their national sovereigns, and national sovereigns stepped in to help their national banking systems.

Both thought they were doing the right thing, based on past experience. But the consequence has been to transform isolated sovereign debt crises into systemic bank crises, and to transform isolated national bank crises into systemic sovereign debt crises.

The deposit and fund outflow out of the periphery is migrating to core Europe. And because of the political backlash over giving up sovereignty, ... a banking union might be the next best.
banking  union  capital-flight  banking  crisis  bank  crisis  angelamerkel  Angela  ESM  EFSF  economic  model  economic-thought  economic  history  ECB  greatrecession  GFC  2012  banking  Europe  EMU  PIIGS  sovereign  debt  crisis 
june 2012 by asterisk2a
Too Big to Bail? Spain is Repeating Ireland’s Mistakes | Institute for New Economic Thinking
http://blogs.hbr.org/cs/2012/06/spain_is_now_making_irelands_m.html

“Ireland went bankrupt stopping its banks going bankrupt,” Kinsella and Blyth write. “Spain simply cannot do this even if it wanted to: the problem is too big.”

They recommend several courses of action to prevent an Ireland-style collapse on a massive scale.

***

Spain's property bust (non performing loans and outright losses) on banks (& cajas lead by corrupt politicians) balance sheet is too big to underwrite (underwrite the debt). Spain is economically not able to underwrite all losses from its banks and cajas. And or able to nationalize and inject cash via gov debt with +6% yield. And Europe won't do it either ... I guess.

But 100bn last weekend into from via EFSF/ESM ... nobody knows if it was the last or the first of many.

***

This analysis show again that PIIGS are not all the same with their problems.
2012  EMU  Europe  PIIGS  sovereign  debt  crisis  ESM  EFSF  FROB  moralhazard  cajas  NPL  property  bubble  bubble  property  bankia  Ireland  banking  Spain  bailout 
june 2012 by asterisk2a
Europe’s banks: Slouching towards a banking union | The Economist
Media got wind of the banking problem in Spain via Bankia headlines and its troubles, and thus Spain's troubles, media also covered the capital flight/deposit exodus from PIIGS.

"Almost €100 billion, about one-tenth of GDP, was pulled out of the country’s banks and bond markets in the first quarter."

Yet, Europes (EMUs) banking problem gets much bigger as Europe as a whole is at stall speed and the periphery in yet another year of depression.

"Yet as quickly as banks are filling their existing capital holes, new ones seem to be appearing. Analysts at Nomura note that non-performing loans are rising in several European countries, including Italy and Germany. They reckon that a severe recession in Europe could cost the region’s 90 biggest banks €420 billion in losses and consume about a third of their capital, with big shortfalls in Britain, France and Germany in addition to those already emerging in Spain (see chart)."

Spains 100bnE bailout (into FROB, Spains TARP) is just 1of many.
NPL  confidence  FROB  ESM  EFSF  capital-flight  ECB  EMU  bankia  2012  bailout  greatrecession  banking  PIIGS  Spain 
june 2012 by asterisk2a
Europe's democracies must not subcontract their destiny to the Bundebank - Telegraph
yet another bailout ... now for spanish banks, ... reading between the headlines shows that this bailout is no step out of the fire for southern periphery, but one together into the fire.
EFSF  cajas  2012  ESM  EMU  Europe  bank  crisis  sovereign  debt  crisis  Bankia  Spain  bailout  PIIGS 
june 2012 by asterisk2a
Alexander Hamilton’s Eurozone Tour - Harold James - Project Syndicate
Europeans today have latched onto the practical side of Hamilton’s argument – that is, the idea that debt mutualization might be a means to cheaper credit; but they have worked out neither the political institutions, nor the shared public virtue, that Hamilton deemed crucial. The extended and politicized debate about debt restructuring has made a Hamiltonian solution more difficult, because the credit of the countries that would be party to it has become questionable.

An obvious starting point for a Hamiltonian Europe would be to set some standard limit for federalized national debt – perhaps the tarnished threshold of 60% of GDP that was mandated (without adequate enforcement) by the Maastricht convergence criteria, or perhaps a lower limit. Debt exceeding that amount would be left to the responsibility of the member states.

Collective burden-sharing is in the long run the only non-catastrophic way out of Europe’s current crisis, ...
ECB  debt  bubble  accountability  politics  transparency  PIIGS  sovereign  debt  crisis  ESM  EFSF  2012  Europe 
march 2012 by asterisk2a
Guest Post: EU Finance Ministers Push Through ESM Treaty in Fishy Fly-by-Night Move | ZeroHedge
transparency  2012  ESM 
january 2012 by asterisk2a
Euro TALF as Dealer of Last Resort - YouTube
europe  sovereign  debt  crisis  TALF  EFSF  ESM  2011  bailout  Greece  PIIGS  ECB 
september 2011 by asterisk2a
Bundesbank questions legality of EU bail-outs - Telegraph
Germany's Bundesbank has issued a blistering critique of EU bail-out policies, warning that the eurozone is drifting towards a debt union without "democratic legitimacy" or treaty backing.

"The latest agreements mean that far-reaching extra risks will be shifted to those countries providing help and to their taxpayers, and entail a large step towards a pooling of risks from particular EMU states with unsound public finances," said the bank's August report.It said an EU summit deal in late July threatens the principle that elected parliaments should control budgets. The Bundesbank said the scheme leaves creditor states with escalating "risks and burdens" yet no means of enforcing fiscal discipline to make this workable.
democracy  deficit  angelamerkel  2011  August  bailout  PIIGS  EFSF  ESM  bundestag  germany  constitution  transferunion  europe  EMU  ECB  badbank 
august 2011 by asterisk2a
U.S. Stocks Tumble on Global Growth Concerns, Economic Reports - Bloomberg
“It’s almost like a worldwide buyers strike,” “There’s a continued general malaise on global economic activity. People continue to downgrade their expectations on growth on a worldwide basis. There’s concern about funding problems. That’s making us very nervous here and as such we want to take risk out of portfolios at least for the immediate future.”
‘Dangerously Close’The U.S. and Europe are “dangerously close to recession,” Morgan Stanley analysts including Chetan Ahya said in the note. “Recent policy errors, especially Europe’s slow and insufficient response to the sovereign crisis and the drama around lifting the U.S. debt ceiling, have weighed down on financial markets and eroded business and consumer confidence.”
politics  mistake  error  folly  policy  USA  europe  PIIGS  sovereign  debt  crisis  austerity  UK  germany  barackobama  angelamerkel  sarkozy  davidcameron  GeorgeOsborne  EFSF  ESM 
august 2011 by asterisk2a
ECB Moves to Prop Up Italy, Spain - WSJ.com
August got hot, downgrade of USA. Contagion in Southern Europe - Spain and Italy.

ECB intervention to prop up Italy and Spain is a watershed in Europe's handling of the financial crisis. The central bank has so far insisted that the main responsibility for action lies with national governments. A decision to buy Italian and Spanish bonds is tantamount to conceding that the euro's member states are unable or unwilling to respond effectively, turning the ECB into the lead firefighter—and the euro zone's lender of last resort. That could reshape the future of Europe's monetary union.

The ECB move "buys a significant amount of time" for Spain and Italy,
Yet the decision will be hotly debated both inside and outside the ECB. At least three central bankers from Northern Europe, including the ECB's powerful German contingent, resisted the move, according to a person familiar with the matter.
PIIGS  italy  spain  ECB  monetization  debt  sovereign  crisis  2011  ESM  EFSF  monetary  policy  QE  creditrating  USA  downgrade 
august 2011 by asterisk2a
Eurozone debt crisis: the key dates - Telegraph
PIIGS  europe  sovereign  debt  crisis  Timeline  history  Greece  ireland  portugal  bailout  ESM  EFSF  ECB 
august 2011 by asterisk2a
Perotti, Zingales: Tax Trio Would Put End to Euro Arson - Bloomberg
EFSF  ESM  2011  sovereign  debt  crisis  contagion  moralhazard  europe 
july 2011 by asterisk2a
Italy money supply plunge flashes red warning signals - Telegraph
M1 in Italy have fallen at an annual rate of 7pc over the last six months, faster than during the build-up to the great recession in 2008," said Simon Ward from Henderson Global Investors.Such a dramatic contraction of M1 cash and overnight deposits typically heralds a slump six to 12 months later. Italy's economy is already vulnerable – industrial output fell 0.6pc in May, and the forward looking PMI surveys have dropped below the recession line."What is disturbing is that the numbers in the core eurozone have started to deteriorate sharply as well. Central banks normally back-pedal or reverse policy when M1 starts to fall, so it is amazing that the European Central Bank went ahead with a rate rise this month," Mr Ward said.

"We expect the crisis to continue deteriorating, and threaten to undermine the entire euro area as European policy-makers still misunderstand market dynamics. They show no sign of catching up with reality," 
= wrong policy response, policy mistake
moneysupply  italy  france  2011  recovery  greatrecession  M1  M3  ECB  economics  economy  politics  EFSF  ESM  bailout  PIIGS  sovereign  debt  crisis  policy  mistake  wrong  decision 
july 2011 by asterisk2a
Wolfgang Munchau On How The Greek Rollover "Deal" Is A Toxic CDO | zero hedge
"This structure is still not quite so complex as some of the more elaborate CDOs we have encountered in the global financial crisis. If you take some time to work through the arrows and boxes, you see relatively quickly that this complex structure is not a private sector participation at all. Rather it is a private sector bail-out...

The punchline is not surprising, but it is funny:
The rollover agreement represents, from an economic point of view, nothing but a collateralised bond. It subordinates all other bondholders. The rating agencies would normally not hesitate to attach a default rating to Greek government debt.
So the solution is to create a complex structure, and claim that it is technically not a collateralised bond, but something that defies definition.
transparency  financial  finance  financialcrisis  financialmarket  ratingagencies  default  greece  PIIGS  EFSF  ESM  bailout  2011  germany  ECB  angelamerkel  ponzischeme  CDO  SIV  scam  sovereign  debt  crisis 
july 2011 by asterisk2a
Euro Debt Crisis - Europe Must 'Acknowledge' Greek Default: Economist - CNBC
"Eventually we will have to acknowledge that in fact there's a Greek default and take it from there," Sir Howard Davies, former director of the London School of Economics and former chairman of the Financial Services Authority, the UK banking watchdog said.
"We are dancing on the head of a pin here, in trying to pretend that the default is not a default, but it's quite clear that nobody would lend to Greece at the moment in a free market."
Greece would likely be in "selective default" even if it follows a debt rollover plan pushed by French banks, ratings agency Standard & Poor's warned on Monday.
default  debt  sovereign  greece  PIIGS  2011  EFSF  ESM 
july 2011 by asterisk2a
Exclusive: Greek woes may eclipse Lehman: Ackermann | Reuters
Deutsche Bank's (DBKGn.DE) CEO described the situation in Greece as critical and warned contagion to other euro zone members could lead to a crisis bigger than the one sparked by the collapse of Lehman Brothers.

"If it is Greece alone, that's already big. But if other countries are drawn in through contagion, it could be bigger than Lehman," the Deutsche Bank chief said at a Reuters banking event on Monday.
deutschebank  josefackermann  contagion  PIIGS  2011  greece  bailout  austerity  EFSF  ESM  germany 
june 2011 by asterisk2a
IMF: Spain needs bolder job-market reforms - BusinessWeek
 "err on the side of boldness."
It urged the government to decentralize collective bargaining to the individual company level; move away from indexing wages to inflation; and cut severance payments to at least EU average levels. Restrictions on dismissing established workers have made companies wary of hiring people, especially younger workers entering the job force.
Spain  reform  austerity  2011  PIIGS  IMF  economics  economy  unemployment  youth  EFSF  ESM 
june 2011 by asterisk2a
EU urged to block Greece bail-out - Telegraph
The Chinese Foreign Ministry said it was willing to talk about ways it could help stabilise the European financial system during its visit to Britain, Germany and Hungary this week.Ahead of the visit by Premier Wen Jiabao, a spokesman said: “The Chinese government has already taken a series of proactive measures to push Sino-Europe trade and economic cooperation, such as buying euro bonds … China is willing to continue helping European countries realise economic growth.”
PIIGS  china  bailout  2011  EFSF  ESM  Greece  default 
june 2011 by asterisk2a
Special report: Europe's Greek tragedy | Reuters
In Europe, by contrast, the banks holding Greek debt are gradually being bought out by European governments in what former Argentine central bank governor Mario Biejer has likened to a "giant Ponzi scheme".
"If the sword of a debt restructuring must eventually fall in order to render Greece's debt stock manageable, that sword will fall principally on the neck of the official sector lenders," wrote Lee Buchheit, a lawyer at Cleary Gottlieb Steen & Hamilton in New York who helped negotiate Uruguay's 2003 debt restructuring, in a paper on Greece's options last month.
"The original creditors will have swapped place in the tumbrel with official lenders quite literally in the shadow of the guillotine."
Reuters calculations, based on a conservative estimate that official lenders -- EU governments, the IMF and ECB -- will hold about 160 billion euros in Greek debt two years from now,  ...
Greece  default  economy  PIIGS  2011  restructuring  bailout  EFSF  ESM  ECB 
may 2011 by asterisk2a
Head Of Eurogroup Admits To Lying About "Secret Greek Meeting" Out Of Fears For Market Collapse - "When It Becomes Serious, You Have To Lie" | zero hedge
On the tape, Mr. Juncker says he has “had to lie” and, speaking about touchy economic topics, “When it becomes serious, you have to lie.”
EMU  Europe  Euro  PIIGS  greece  2011  sovereign  debt  politics  economics  default  restructuring  ireland  portugal  EFSF  ESM  ECB  Fed  fraud 
may 2011 by asterisk2a
Eurozone ship is on the course that was set for it: heading for the rocks - Telegraph
Two events last week saw the crisis in the eurozone deepen - the Portuguese bail-out and the ECB's interest rate increase. But much more is brewing.

Debt is one facet of the euro's crisis. There are three others.
The second factor is the property market.
The third factor is the weakness of the banks.

The euro is supposedly cemented by unshakeable political will. Yet not only has the eurozone failed to establish workable union-wide political institutions, but the political situation in member countries has turned ugly.Portugal and Belgium are without governments.
ECB  PIIGS  contagion  2011  bailout  EFSF  ESM  banking  europe  EMU 
april 2011 by asterisk2a
Brazil's Lula to Portugal: Don't take bailout - Yahoo! News
"The IMF won't resolve Portugal's problem, like it didn't solve Brazil's," Silva said during a trip to Portugal. "Whenever the IMF tried to take care of countries' debts, it created more problems than solutions."Silva didn't elaborate, but in the past he has criticized the IMF for espousing "orthodox and recessive concepts."Brazil took a $41.5 billion IMF loan in 1998. Like many emerging markets, the Latin American country has enjoyed an economic boom in recent years. Silva, who left office in January, is credited with generating wealth through a blend of fiscal discipline and innovative investment strategies designed to reduce poverty.Portugal's outgoing Prime Minister Jose Socrates insisted again that his government "is determined not to ask" for a bailout.
further, Portugal central bank lowered its 2011 growth outlook to minus 1.4% from minus 1.3%

 Dilma Roussef,  her country could come to the aid of Portugal,"Brazil could help Portugal like Portugal has helped Brazil,"
portugal  brazil  2011  IMF  politics  economics  economy  history  bailout  EFSF  ESM  recession 
march 2011 by asterisk2a
Trichet, King Haunted by Bank of Japan's Lost Decade Interest-Rate Error - Bloomberg
European central bankers agitating for higher interest rates to quell inflation may be ignoring the lessons of Japan’s economic history.
As the European Central Bank and Bank of England consider tightening monetary policy, HSBC Holdings Plc and Fathom Financial Consulting warn officials risk misjudging the inflation threat and may end up hurting their recoveries. That’s what repeatedly happened in Japan in the past quarter century as policy makers constrained credit only to reverse within months when expansion faltered.
“The danger is of a policy mistake,” said Stephen King, HSBC’s London-based chief economist and a former U.K. Treasury official. “In an attempt to control inflation this year they could set the scene for more disappointing growth in the future as happened in Japan.”

Ben S. Bernanke, now chairman of the U.S. Federal Reserve, said in 2003 Japan’s “performance is due almost entirely to a very poor monetary policy.”
Japan  history  ECB  policy  mistake  trichet  inflation  ZIRP  PIIGS  EFSF  ESM  politics  lostdecade  2011  lesson  economics  monetary  benbernanke  adamsposen 
march 2011 by asterisk2a
Steuergelderfr Pleitekandidaten: Deutschland zahlt 22 Milliarden Euro in Hilfsfonds - SPIEGEL ONLINE - Nachrichten - Wirtschaft
EFSF  ESM  2011 
march 2011 by asterisk2a
Debatte ber Ende der Whrungsunion: Warum Deutschland den Euro braucht - SPIEGEL ONLINE - Nachrichten - Wirtschaft
DeutchMark  Euro  foreignexchange  competitiveness  Germany  2011  EFSF  ESM 
march 2011 by asterisk2a
ECB's Weber Says Debt-Burdened Nations May Yet Face `Most Painful' Time - Bloomberg
Axelweber  ECB  2011  EFSF  ESM  EMU  PIIGS  Germany 
february 2011 by asterisk2a

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