asterisk2a + efsf   95

Griechenland: Warum ein Schuldenschnitt jetzt richtig ist - SPIEGEL ONLINE
[ nennt es doch schuldumschreibung!? longer dated lower interest rates. es wurden ja unsere banken in europa gerettet in 2009/10/11. ] Es ist die richtige Ankündigung zur rechten Zeit: Griechenland wird einen Schuldenschnitt bekommen - auch wenn die Kanzlerin das nicht so aussprechen will. Klingt seltsam, aber so funktioniert Europa nun einmal. // &! - Griechenland-Hilfe: Merkels Schneeballsystem - Am Mittwoch stimmt der Bundestag über das dritte Hilfspaket für Griechenland ab. Das Risiko für die deutschen Steuerzahler: ein dreistelliger Milliardenbetrag. Doch die Kanzlerin verschleiert das - die Folgen werden fatal sein.
debt  restructuring  Greece  IMF  bailout  2015  Angela  Merkel  Wolfgang  Schäuble  Career  Politicians  PR  spin  doctor  EFSF  ESM  Troika  Germany  bank  bailout  economic  history  Leadership  manufactured  consent  propaganda  populism  corporate  state  Lügenpresse  public  perception  public  awareness  smoking  gun  smoke  mirror  public  discourse  fairness  Generationengerechtigkeit  ChristineLagarde  European  Union  fiscal  political  theory  social  contract  debtoverhang  policy  error  policy  folly  lost  generation  lost  decade  GFC  recovery  trust  distrust  trustagent  voter  turnout 
august 2015 by asterisk2a
Die ungehörten Warnungen des IWF | Report Mainz | Das Erste - YouTube
Schon vor fünf Jahren sollte ein Hilfsprogramm Griechenland vor der Pleite retten. Doch führende Ökonomen des IWF waren schon damals mehr als skeptisch. // it's not a bailout for Greece. it's a bank bailout for France, Belgium, Germany and co. Its was always a bank bailout. // no debt restructuring, no debt haircut = no long-term solution.
Greece  bailout  IMF  economic  history  2015  sovereign  debt  crisis  ESM  EFSF  austerity  Troika  bank  bailout  zombie  banks  TBTF  toobigtofail  Angela  Merkel  Career  Politicians  No  Representation  European  Union  Alternativlos  TINA  Wolfgang  Schäuble  ChristineLagarde  debt  servitude  debt  jubilee  debt  restructuring 
august 2015 by asterisk2a
Greece debt crisis: MPs back bailout reform plan - BBC News
[post-referendum ] Greece's parliament has backed a government package of economic reforms aimed at ending the country's debt crisis and securing a new bailout [ to pay off previous bailout payments that are coming-up; EFSF, IMF, ECB ] After a late-night debate, PM Alexis Tsipras won overwhelming cross-party support but saw some of his own MPs vote against him or abstain. Earlier, he admitted that some elements of the package fell short of his party's anti-austerity promises. The proposals are to be studied by eurozone finance ministers later. EU sources says Greece's creditors - the European Commission, the European Central Bank and the International Monetary Fund - believe the plan is positive. Eurozone officials are also expected to discuss Greek requests for some of the debt to be rescheduled. Mr Tsipras is asking for €53.5bn ($59.47bn) to cover Greece's debts (re-payments and interest) until 2018. [...] given in to demands [&] measures rejected in a referendum last Sunday.
Syriza  Grexit  referendum  democracy  Alexis  Tsipras  Yanis  Varoufakis  Greece  Career  Politicians  bullying  No  Representation  2015  bailout  IMF  EFSF  ECB  austerity  Great  Depression  lost  decade  lost  generation  economic  history  Eurogroup  Troika  zombie  banks  insolvent  Insolvenzverschleppung  insolvency  Bank  of  Greece  ELA  ESM  creditor 
july 2015 by asterisk2a
Greece debt crisis puts Germany's Merkel under pressure - BBC News
Of all of its creditors, Greece owes Germany the most - €68bn (£49bn; $75bn). // should compromise and change Germany internal debate whether we want to see 70% of our money or non at all in case of a Grexit in the next 5 years because Greece can no get back to economic growth and a real nationalistic and populistic elected gov that make Syriza look pale in comparison does elect to exit Euro voluntarily. Short sighted ideological national interest will bring worse than they can imagine - destroying the european dream and damaging europe as a whole as economy long-term (ie deflationary pressures ECB fights with more money, instead with political long-term resolution in the interest of THE EUROPEAN UNION, SOLIDARITY, they already did since GFC with their dither strategy, putting plasters on fault lines. Angela Merkel could have become the true Queen of Europe history would have remembered her. But she can only be national career politician & a lab worker (has science degree).
Career  Politicians  compromise  Grexit  bailout  debt  restructuring  haircut  EFSF  IMF  ECB  ESM  Greece  sustainable  sustainability  economic  history  austerity  national  interest  European  Union  policy  folly  policy  error  Angela  Merkel  Sigmar  Gabriel  Wolfgang  Schäuble  Troika  ChristineLagarde  Eurogroup  MarioDraghi  common  sense  common  good  Great  Depression  lost  decade  lost  generation  zombie  banks  short-term  thinking  short-term  view  ideology  dogma  populism  propaganda  Nationalism  media  conglomerate  Lügenpresse  No  Representation  faultlines  structural  imbalance  GFC  recovery  solidarity  manufactured  consent  corporate  state  Gesellschaft  European  fiscal  transferunion  Eurobond  Leadership  vision 
july 2015 by asterisk2a
Athens capitulates to creditors - BBC News
"Greece: Prior Actions - Policy Commitments and Actions to be taken in consultation with the EC/ECB/IMF staff", it feels very familiar. That familiarity stems from its great similarity to the bailout proposals put to Greece by the creditors - the eurozone governments, the European Central Bank and the IMF - last month. Pretty much everything wanted by the creditors is there - with the odd tweak or softening, but nothing which looks as though it ought to be noxious to them. So there is a pledge for budget surpluses rising in steps to 3.5% of GDP or national income by 2018 [< in their dreams only]. // The referendum was a last ditch effort by Syriza to get better deal. Eurogroup, Troika, IMF, ECB called it a bluff and accepted a possible Grexit and according to Juncker did prepare for it. No we are where we were when Syriza was elected and had to negotiate for a new bailout tranche, to pay off other bailout tranches re-payment coming up (IMF, EFSF, ECB) &! MPs to deceide
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july 2015 by asterisk2a
Germany won’t spare Greek pain – it has an interest in breaking us | Yanis Varoufakis | Comment is free | The Guardian
Debt restructuring has always been our aim in negotiations – but for some eurozone leaders Grexit is the goal [...] To frame the cynical transfer of irretrievable private losses on to the shoulders of taxpayers as an exercise in “tough love”, record austerity was imposed on Greece, whose national income, in turn – from which new and old debts had to be repaid – diminished by more than a quarter. It takes the mathematical expertise of a smart eight-year-old to know that this process could not end well. [...] In my first week as minister for finance I was visited by Jeroen Dijsselbloem, president of the Eurogroup (the eurozone finance ministers), who put a stark choice to me: accept the bailout’s “logic” and drop any demands for debt restructuring or your loan agreement will “crash” – the unsaid repercussion being that Greece’s banks would be boarded up. [...] Wolfgang Schäuble, decided that Grexit’s costs were a worthwhile “investment” as a way of disciplining France et al,
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july 2015 by asterisk2a
Alexis Tsipras im EU-Parlament: Viel reden, wenig sagen - SPIEGEL ONLINE Greece needs much more time for reform implementation and to get to a stable economy, till it even can be considered debt repayment - even if all creditors block a substantial haircut/debt jubilee - they had (Germany). IF THEY (creditors) can not see a 'common sense' deal through, Greece will have to issue IOU in lieu of Euro paper money for Pensioners, Civil Servants & Contractors or break with ECB and issue unsecured loans to Banks via Bank of Greece. AND/OR as well as probably enact Plan B for a return to the Drachma ( ) AND THEN - Juncker threatens-claims Tsipras to have in-detail Grexit plan ( already. This only speak to the dogma & ideology creditors live in. No willing to compromise for the future of european union and actually use the crisis as an opportunity for more integration and solidarity. A union that Europe needs for its future, existence.
Greece  Grexit  referendum  creditors  IMF  Alexis  Tsipras  Syriza  Germany  EFSF  ECB  MarioDraghi  ChristineLagarde  Troika  Jean-Claude  Juncker  Angela  Merkel  Wolfgang  Schäuble  France  FrancoisHollande  zombie  banks  European  Union  European  History  Career  Politicians  No  Representation  Leadership  compromise  dogma  austerity  ideology  economic  economic  model  academia  political  economy  political  theory  political  error  political  science  political  folly  Governance  solidarity  fiscal  monetary  banking  transferunion  currency 
july 2015 by asterisk2a
Griechenland: Slavoj Zizek im Interview über Tripras - SPIEGEL ONLINE
Mehr Europa: Im Interview verteidigt der Slowene Slavoj Zizek die Tsipras-Regierung - und deren Idee eines Referendums. Von Philip Kaleta [...] Zizek: Die griechische Regierung hat wiederholt ihre Absicht klar gemacht, Griechenland sowohl in der EU als auch in der Eurozone halten zu wollen. Diese Haltung ist völlig eindeutig, Referendum hin oder her. Es geht heute darum, ob der Sparkurs weiterverfolgt wird oder neue Wege eingeschlagen werden. Die Kritiker von Tsipras versuchen, den Kern des Referendums in eine Schicksalsfrage umzudeuten. [...] Ohne einen solchen Plan [oekonomischer neuanfang] würde sich die Krise letztlich immer wieder reproduzieren. [...] Sogar der IWF hat eingeräumt, dass Griechenland einen groß angelegten Schuldenerlass braucht, um "Raum zum Atmen" zu schaffen und die Wirtschaft wieder zum Laufen zu bringen. [...] In Ihrem aktuellen Buch plädieren Sie für eine europäische Leitkultur, ... [ bailout = socialism for tbtf/jail and donors, lobby & country club ]
democracy  Slavoj  Zizek  Greece  PIGS  austerity  bailout  toobigtofail  TBTF  too  big  to  jail  Wall  Street  crony  capitalism  capitalism  Career  Politicians  No  Representation  referendum  Podemos  Syriza  Grexit  European  Union  debt  jubilee  sustainability  sustainable  debtoverhang  sovereign  debt  crisis  fiscal  sovereignty  Great  Depression  ideology  dogma  economic  history  sociology  psychology  history  Europe  solidarity  Gesellschaft  IMF  Troika  Angela  Merkel  Wolfgang  Schäuble  Jean-Claude  Juncker  Jens  Weidmann  ChristineLagarde  ECB  MarioDraghi  Leadership  fiscal  political  compromise  shared  economic  interest  EFSF  European  vision  courage  technocrat  status  quo  lost  decade  lost  generation  egalitarianism  fairness  equality  inequality  Gini  coefficient  egalitarian  culture  society  heresy  thought  thought  leader  economic-thought  trust  trustagent 
july 2015 by asterisk2a
Greek referendum: how would top economists vote? | World news | The Guardian
"A no vote would at least open the possibility that Greece, with its strong democratic tradition, might grasp its destiny in its own hands. [...] [I]s far more hopeful than the unconscionable torture of the present." [...] The troika clearly did a reverse Corleone – they made Tsipras an offer he can’t accept, and presumably did this knowingly [ Blackmail offer they (Syriza) could not accept - &! &! ]. So the ultimatum was, in effect, a move to replace the Greek government. [T]hat has to be disturbing for anyone who believes in European ideals. [...] I recommend that the Greek people give a resounding “No” to the creditors in the referendum on their demands this weekend. // &! The Guardian view on the Greek referendum: hard to imagine a more dismal choice - Editorial - - The Greek crisis has led Brussels into the business of regime change // &! True leaders admit 2 mistakes = humility. not smartest.
jeffreysachs  Jeffrey  Sachs  Joseph  Stiglitz  Paul  Krugman  Grexit  referendum  democracy  Troika  IMF  ECB  austerity  ideology  economic  history  Career  Politicians  Angela  Merkel  Wolfgang  Schäuble  ChristineLagarde  Syriza  blackmail  dogma  economic  damage  economic  model  economic-thought  shared  economic  interest  social  tension  social  cohesion  Gesellschaft  European  Union  solidarity  propaganda  manufactured  consent  corporate  state  EFSF  haircut  debt  jubilee  Leadership  humility  MarioDraghi  Jean-Claude  Juncker 
july 2015 by asterisk2a
Greek economy close to collapse as food and medicine run short | World news | The Guardian
Banks said they had a €1bn cash buffer to see them through the weekend – equal to just €90 (£64) a head for the 11 million-strong population – and would require immediate help from the European Central Bank on Monday whatever the result of the referendum, in which the two sides are running neck and neck. Alexis Tsipras, Greece’s prime minister, was fighting for his political life on Friday night, using a rally to say that a no vote would enable him to negotiate a reform-for-debt-relief deal with the country’s creditors. [ Greece needs debt jubilee (and Allies urged also to forgo reparations) like post-WW2/Nazi Germany got that enabled it to economically succeed, but Greece (and its people) is not seen as too big to fail and not critical for European stability. A 20 year debt repayment pause that IMF last week brought in, is not enough. It is just a delay. It's economically not sound. Just opportunism to show to the public 'we do something.' ]
debt  jubilee  Germany  history  WW2  haircut  sustainable  sustainability  sovereign  debt  crisis  Grexit  PIGS  contagion  unintended  consequences  unknown  unkown  monetary  union  Leadership  IMF  ChristineLagarde  Angela  Merkel  Jean-Claude  Juncker  Wolfgang  Schäuble  Career  Politicians  European  solidarity  Gesellschaft  Greece  debt  bubble  debt  restructuring  Opportunism  opportunist  Wirtschaftswunder  economic  history  zombie  banks  bailout  Troika  EFSF  Syriza  ECB  MarioDraghi  ELA  austerity  ideology 
july 2015 by asterisk2a
Gregor Gysi, DIE LINKE: »Sie wollen die linke Regierung in Griechenland beseitigen« - YouTube
[ "Alternativlos" & 'Jeder fuer sich selbst.' ] Die Rettungspakete galten nie den Bürgerinnen und Bürgern, sondern immer den Banken. Auch bei uns wurden 480 Milliarden Euro binnen einer Woche für die Rettung der Banken beschlossen. Wenn man mal 1 Million Euro für einen kulturellen oder sozialen Zweck braucht, dann bekommt man ein Nein, aber bei den Banken gibt es immer nur ein Ja. [...] Ich habe Ihnen zugehört, Frau Bundeskanzlerin. Ihre Rede kann ich wie folgt zusammenfassen: Die griechische Regierung hat alles falsch gemacht, und Sie, Herr Schäuble und die europäischen Institutionen, also der Internationale Währungsfonds, die Europäische Kommission und die Europäische Zentralbank, haben alles richtig gemacht. // via
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july 2015 by asterisk2a
WikiLeaks - Espionnage Élysée - Angela Merkel on Greece and Europe (actions speak louder than words).
Earlier reporting reveals that following talks last week in Berlin with Merkel, Hollande complained that nothing of substance was achieved; it was purely for show. Hollande had found the chancellor fixated on the Fiscal Pact and above all on Greece, on which he claimed she had given up and was unwilling to budge. // Angela (Germany) put(s) national and personal political interests first second third and last .... // symptoms of our time, even politicians jump on "everybody for himself" //
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july 2015 by asterisk2a
Griechenland: Was Angela Merkel noch alles angeboten hat - SPIEGEL ONLINE
Für den Fall, dass Tsipras die Verlängerung des aktuellen zweiten Hilfspakets zu den veränderten Konditionen akzeptiert hätte, bot Merkel ihm dem Vernehmen nach in einem letzten Gespräch am Freitag vergangener Woche unter anderem Folgendes an: ein drittes Hilfsprogramm, Schuldenerleichterungen, also eine teilweise Umschuldung, Investitionen in Höhe von rund 35 Milliarden Euro. // BUT NO debt jubilee/haircut and admitting that it was a EU bank bailout through the back door. // Counter-off on day 0 from Syriza; ESM to take on debt for two years. Another delay. Country will NOT start to grow in two years to pay off EFSF and IMF ... &! IMF pushes back on default scenario - &! Germany paid 85bn to EU banks (aka Greece Debt payments via EFSF, IMF and ECB ELA liability and bonds that ECB bought via their bank refinance programms (LTRO) via BuBa capital ownership of ECB) in case of default - // &! &!
Grexit  default  IMF  EFSF  Angela  Merkel  PIGS  Wolfgang  Schäuble  European  Union  Career  Politicians  economic  history  sovereign  debt  crisis  zombie  banks  GFC  recovery  Great  Depression  Greece  austerity  Troika  ECB  Syriza  democracy  solidarity  political  error  political  economy  political  folly  policy  error  policy  folly  ESM  ELA  BuBa  Bundesbank  LTRO  TLTRO  MarioDraghi  Jean-Claude  Juncker 
june 2015 by asterisk2a
Griechenland vor dem Referendum: Banken sind Herd der Krise - SPIEGEL ONLINE
Angesichts dieser Lage würden rationale Menschen den Schaden begrenzen wollen. Die einzige Möglichkeit, die es jetzt noch gibt, wäre ein verhandelter Schuldenschnitt für Griechenland ohne neues Programm, aber mit einer Refinanzierung der griechischen Banken. Mit anderen Worten: Wir müssten die Schmach über uns ergehen lassen, dass wir einem Teilverzicht unserer Forderungen zustimmen und gleichzeitig einen weiteren Kredit vergeben. So irrsinnig, wie sich das anhört, so sinnvoll wäre ein solcher Schritt aus deutscher Sicht. Nicht aus Mitleid oder Verantwortung. Sondern aus Eigennutz. Die Betonung hier liegt auf Teil-Verzicht. // // in the end it was a bank bailout through the backdoor sold to the people as Greece Bailout, the money went to the EU banks. period. so sell it as it is, the fucking pig. isn't politics about compromise? >> THUS LOL by Merkel call for more compromise - &! Merkel and Junker is at fault for putting them before Europe at large -
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june 2015 by asterisk2a
IMF heads must roll over shameful Greek failings - Telegraph
Whatever the eventual outcome of the Greek debt talks, there are a number of judgments can already be made; one is that a large part of the blame for this ever deepening debacle lies at the doors of the International Monetary Fund, which from the very beginning has had both its priorities and its analysis of the situation hopelessly wrong. [...] By any standards, however, the IMF’s entanglement with the eurozone crisis is a whopper of a screw-up. Nor is it something in which the IMF should have got involved in the first place. Europe, one of the richest regions in the world, should have been left to sort out its own affairs. [...] This is more particularly the case as the Greek debt crisis is almost entirely one of the eurozone’s own making. And yet unforgivably, Greece is now the IMF’s biggest bailout ever – $35bn for a population of just 11 million. [ after all it was an EU (&international) bank bailout through the backdoor. at a times where banks were not able to cope ]
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june 2015 by asterisk2a
ECB 'to end Greek bank lifeline' - BBC News - Emergency Liquidity Facility (ELA) // ECB is expected to end emergency lending to Greece's banks on Sunday [...] have to "announce a bank holiday on Monday, pending introduction of capital controls". [B]ailout for heavily indebted Greece expires on Tuesday & talks have broken down. [...] "Grexit" from the euro is not inevitable, as the eurozone did resolve Cyprus's banking crisis in 2013 & the country stayed in the euro. [...] [Biggest part is EFSF debt. EU gov money (FR&GER biggest contributors) // Jens Weidmann - would have cut it earlier. Current tally €89 billion. // &! - ECB could bully/force Greece/Syriza to accept any deal given or it will cut of ELA. It did so with Cyprus & Ireland. FT called it 'the quiet enforcer.' // In the End, IMF & EFSF paid off (mostly EU) bank loans for Greece. Not to fill Greece's budget deficit. = Backdoor National Bank Bailout!!! &!
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june 2015 by asterisk2a
Keep A Close Eye On This FX Pair | Zero Hedge
Wondering why the Euro is losing steam so quickly this morning after the Eurogroup 'saved' Cyprus? Perhaps this FX cross is the reason... >> unintended consequences :: Russian Oligarchs pulling money out of Europe.   Perhaps this is why Italian and Spanish financials and bonds are weaker... >> >> "" accounts with more than 100,000 euros, face losses of 4.2 billion euros. "" And now, the scramble to pull uninsured deposits out of banks everywhere begins. "" !!!
Laiki  ESM  EFSF  trust  bank  restructuring  haircut  confidence  unintended  consequences  European  Commission  zombie  banks  trustagent  bail-in  Troika  ELA  ECB  restructuring  Cyprus  of  Cyprus  bank  crisis  toobigtofail  Russia  zombi  banks  bailout 
march 2013 by asterisk2a
Hilfen für Griechenland belasten Bundeshaushalt - SPIEGEL ONLINE
Die neuen Zusagen an Griechenland reißen ein Loch in den Bundeshaushalt: Allein im kommenden Jahr muss Deutschland mit 730 Millionen Euro weniger auskommen als geplant. Kritiker des Pakets sprechen von "politischer Insolvenzverschleppung".

Das neue Hilfspaket für Griechenland belastet den deutschen Haushalt schon im kommenden Jahr mit rund 730 Millionen Euro. Dies ergibt sich aus Äußerungen, die Bundesfinanzminister Wolfgang Schäuble (CDU) am Dienstag zu den neuen Hilfen für Athen machte. Die Summe setzt sich aus zwei Posten zusammen: Gewinnen aus dem Anleihenkaufprogramm der Europäischen Zentralbank (EZB), die fortan an Griechenland überwiesen werden sollen, sowie einer Zinssenkung auf bereits gewährte Kredite für das Land.
austerity  ESM  EFSF  IMF  bailout  2012  sovereign  debt  crisis  Europe  PIIGS  Greece  Insolvenzverschleppung  germany  ECB 
november 2012 by asterisk2a
Griechenland: Ein Schuldenschnitt würde die Steuerzahler treffen - SPIEGEL ONLINE
IWF und EZB verlangen einen radikalen Schuldenschnitt für Griechenland. Aber wer soll die Kosten tragen? Die meisten Gläubiger haben sich längst abgesichert gegen drohende Verluste - am Ende zahlen die Bürger die Euro-Zone.


Rund 63 Milliarden Euro würden Griechenland erlassen, wenn die Euro-Partner nach aktuellem Stand auf die Hälfte ihrer Forderungen verzichten würden. Deutschland müsste etwa 17,5 Milliarden Euro beisteuern. Angesichts einer griechischen Gesamtschuldenlast von 304 Milliarden Euro wäre die Entlastung nicht besonders groß.

Experten glauben deshalb, dass langfristig noch mehr nötig sein wird, um Griechenland zu retten. "Ich halte es für illusorisch, jetzt einen großen Schuldenschnitt zu machen und zu glauben, dass es damit getan wäre", sagt Ökonom Fuest. "Aber man könnte dem Land mit einem begrenzten Schnitt zumindest einmal zwei Jahre Luft verschaffen."
confidence  trustagent  trust  Politics  Europe  ESM  EFSF  France  Germany  PIIGS  sovereign  debt  crisis  2012  haircut  bailout  Greece  ECB  IMF 
november 2012 by asterisk2a
Kommentar: Der Schuldenschnitt in Griechenland wird teuer - SPIEGEL ONLINE
Aus Furcht vor den deutschen Wählern sträubt sich Merkels Regierung gegen einen Schuldenschnitt und die Erkenntnis: Wir alle werden für Griechenland zahlen müssen.
Schon jetzt ist der Unmut gewaltig. Daran sind nicht nur die Schludergriechen schuld, sondern auch die Bundesregierung. Merkel und ihre Koalitionäre haben es lange vernachlässigt, den Menschen zu erklären, warum es sinnvoll ist, für Europa und auch für Griechenland einzutreten. Wie kaum eine andere Regierung haben sie die Stimmung gegen die Griechen geschürt und Argumente geliefert, warum man möglichst hart mit den Schuldensündern umgehen müsse. Nun wird es für sie umso schwerer zu erklären, warum man denselben Griechen plötzlich Geld schenken soll.

Es wird kein Weg daran vorbeiführen, dass Deutschland und andere Gläubigerstaaten für Griechenland zahlen - ob man das dann Schuldenschnitt, Pleite, Schuldenerlass oder Transfer nennt, ist zweitrangig. Wichtig ist nur, dass die verantwortlichen Politiker endlich den Mut..
trustagent  confidence  truth  economics  economic  history  IMF  austerity  greatrecession  2012  bailout  ESM  EFSF  PIIGS  haircut  Greece  angelamerkel  Politics 
november 2012 by asterisk2a
Münchau: Verfassungsgericht überlässt Politik Lösung der Euro-Krise - SPIEGEL ONLINE
Bisher haben die Richter die nationale Souveränität verteidigt - diese hat sich mit dem ESM-Spruch erledigt. Karlsruhe hat den Weg frei gemacht für eine Fiskalunion.


Auch der Hinweis auf eine formelle Haftungsobergrenze ist naiv. Die größte Gefahr für Deutschland besteht nicht in den offiziellen Finanzrisiken des Rettungsschirms, sondern in den nicht quantifizierbaren Risiken, etwa durch das innereuropäische Zahlungssystem Target 2 oder durch erneuten Kapitalbedarf von Banken im Falle eines Zusammenbruchs des Euro.


! Go-Ahead signal for future bailouts in return for giving up fiscal sovereignty !

Mit dem jetzigen Urteil signalisiert das Verfassungsgericht hingegen grünes Licht. Denn die Kombination aus einem permanenten Rettungsschirm, einem nicht kündbaren Fiskalpakt und unbegrenzten Bond-Käufen durch die Europäische Zentralbank laufen genau auf eine Fiskalunion hinaus. Ein Urteil gegen den ESM wäre die letzte rechtliche Möglichkeit gewesen, den Trend zu stoppen.
europeanunion  Politics  Kafka  Franz  Kafka  philosophy  fiscal  policy  monetary  policy  OMT  ECB  fiscal  sovereignty  2012  bank  crisis  banking  union  banking  crisis  sovereign  debt  crisis  PIIGS  Grexit  target2-system  EFSF  ESM  Europe  democracy  liberty  European  Pact  Germany  German  Constitutional  Court 
september 2012 by asterisk2a
Das Urteil des Bundesverfassungsgerichts (Dokumentation) - SPIEGEL ONLINE
Die deutsche Haftungsobergrenze von 190 Milliarden Euro ist laut Urteil von Politikern mehrfach als unantastbar bezeichnet worden und auch in den ESM-Reglungen festgeschrieben. Trotzdem sehen die Richter Vorsicht geboten:

"Die Bundesrepublik Deutschland muss deutlich zum Ausdruck bringen, dass sie an den ESM-Vertrag insgesamt nicht gebunden sein kann, falls sich der von ihr geltend gemachte Vorbehalt als unwirksam erweisen sollte."

Fiscal Pact
Nach Art 109 Abs 3 Satz 2 in Verbindung mit Art. 115 Abs. 2 Satz 3 GG kann bei einer konjunkturellen Entwicklung, die von der Normallage abweicht, sowie bei Naturkatastrophen oder außergewöhnlichen Notsituationen, die sich der Kontrolle des Staates entziehen und die staatliche Finanzlage erheblich beeinträchtigen, von den Defizitvorgaben abgewichen werden."
PIIGS  sovereign  debt  crisis  OMT  2012  German  Constitutional  Court  Europe  Fiscal  Pact  EFSF  ESM  Germany 
september 2012 by asterisk2a
Spain and the markets: The Spanish patient | The Economist
A full bail-out of the euro area’s fourth-largest economy is looming

The Spanish government must borrow €385 billion until the end of 2014 to cover its budget deficit and other needs such as bond redemptions, according to economists at Credit Suisse. Even if the IMF chips in a third as in previous bail-outs, European lenders would have to find €250 billion or so. They have already committed €100 billion to rescuing Spanish banks, so for other emergencies they would have only €150 billion of the €500 billion now in their rescue kitties.

The plight of Spain and the danger of its sickness spreading to Italy call for a decisive countermove by Germany and the ECB. One being discussed would be to give the ESM a banking licence, which would magnify its resources by allowing it to borrow from the central bank. The graver the euro crisis gets, the bigger the response has to be—and the harder it is to sell to sceptical northern electorates.
uncertainty  Politics  trustagent  confidence  trust  policy  folly  policy  error  ECB  Italy  EFSF  ESM  sovereign  debt  crisis  PIIGS  austerity  greatrecession  2012  Spain  bailout 
august 2012 by asterisk2a
"Did Somebody Repeal The Laws Of Mathematics?" | ZeroHedge
Back then (2010), the general opinion was that if the contagion spread to Spain the game was over because there wasn’t enough money with which to bail out an economy the size of The Kingdom of Spain. I’m not sure exactly what happened— maybe I wasn’t paying attention—but suddenly, almost two years on and in an environment where even the rich nations of Europe are seeing an undeniable slide towards recession, there is no talk about Spain being ‘too-big-to-bail’ anymore.


Looking at it all :: the market (Spanish gov showed them some slides ...) assumes that Spain will get out of recession by 2013 with pa growth of 1.6% as internal demand will rise again.

*make one speechless*
Germany  bipolar  disorder  Stockholm  Syndrome  ESM  SMP  EFSF  Italy  toobigtofail  policy  folly  policy  error  contagion  2010  austerity  greatrecession  2012  PIIGS  Spain  MarioDraghi  ECB  centralbanks  unintended  consequences  politics  Europe  sovereign  debt  crisis 
august 2012 by asterisk2a
Draghi: EZB will wieder Staatsanleihen kaufen und Euro retten - SPIEGEL ONLINE
- Draghi sounded very Fed like; speculation now that they might use SMP non-standard monetary policy tool again.
- also I personally got the impression they want to safe Euro and thus the banking system. But necessarily not Greece. Greece and other problematic sovereigns were not mentioned. If Greece were to exit - they could to another LTRO.
- also analysts speculate that ECB could do something with ESM together in the future.

- Everything else considered; ECB can not solve problems of sovereigns. Actions are only a sedative against the pain and these sedatives (non-standard measures) will be discounted by market over time now faster than the last time.

Within our mandate ECB ready to do whatever it takes to preserve the euro
LTRO  ESM  EFSF  SMP  MarioDraghi  2012  PIIGS  Europe  sovereign  debt  crisis  velocity  of  money  moneysupply  monetary  theory  monetary  policy  System  ECB 
july 2012 by asterisk2a
Why the EU summit decisions may destabilise government bond markets | vox
!! Only the ECB can stabilise bond markets !!

The only way to stabilise the government bond markets is to involve the ECB, either indirectly by giving a banking license to the ESM so that it can draw on the resources of the ECB (see Gros and Mayer 2010), or by direct interventions by the ECB. But the European leaders were unable (unwilling) to take that necessary step to stabilise the Eurozone.

The ECB is the only institution that can prevent panic in the sovereign bond markets from pushing countries into a bad equilibrium, because as a money-creating institution it has an infinite capacity to buy government bonds. The fact that resources are infinite is key to be able to stabilise bond rates. It is the only way to gain credibility in the market.

The SMP is the wrong precedent

My take, I am only buying half of the analysis. Outright bond buying would need a treaty change!? Another concern is rampant inflation expectations causing local bubbles.
bailout  greatrecession  inflation  expectations  IOU  fiscal  policy  Pact  lenderoflastresort  Eurobond  PIIGS  EMU  moralhazard  politics  Economics  monetary  theory  monetary  policy  trustagent  trust  ZIRP  QE  LTRO  SMP  ECB  EFSF  ESM  sovereign  debt  crisis 
july 2012 by asterisk2a
Wolfgang Münchau: Merkel hat auf dem Euro-Gipfel nichts aufgegeben - SPIEGEL ONLINE
Die Märkte waren in der Euro-Krise oft langsam, aber wenn sie erst einmal etwas geschnallt hatten, dann waren sie gnadenlos.

Das Problem ist, dass die Bundeskanzlerin sich in eine Ecke manövriert hat, aus der sie kaum wieder herauskommt.

[...] Und just zu diesem Zeitpunkt (2H 2012/1H 2013) schwächelt die Weltwirtschaft, von den USA bis nach China. Das bedeutet, dass sich die Krisendynamik zunächst verschlimmern wird. In den Problemstaaten der Euro-Zone werden die haushaltspolitischen Ziele in diesem Jahr alle verfehlt, und die Schulden steigen weiter an.

Ich sehe keine Lösung, außer der Einführung von Euro-Bonds oder zumindest einer kurzfristige Ausweitung der Rettungsschirme. Beides wird es nicht geben, solange sich die politische und juristische Meinung in Deutschland nicht ändert.

Ich komme daher zu dem Schluss, dass die Wahrscheinlichkeit eines Auseinanderbrechens des Euros seit dem Gipfel eher noch gestiegen ist.
EFSF  ECB  ESM  greatrecession  2012  Eurobond  sovereign  debt  crisis  Europe  EMU  PIIGS  Germany  MarianoRajoy  FrancoisHollande  mariomonti  angelamerkel 
july 2012 by asterisk2a
Euro-Krise: Hans-Werner Sinn ruft zu Protest gegen Bankenunion auf - SPIEGEL ONLINE
Chief of Ifo Institute (Germany) drums up support to protest against Bankunion (EU Banks have 3x debt than Germany already got, Bankunion raises bailout moral hazard and insures continuation of TBTF) and risk of Target-2 balance [Bundesbank] if EMU would break up. Calls for public protest by citizens. EU Summit was first example of power of PIIGS over Core … ala ‘if you don’t agree to that, hell will come’.
sovereign  debt  crisis  bailout  EFSF  Germany  unintended  consequences  politics  target2-system  2012  angelamerkel  PIIGS  EMU  ESM  Ifo 
july 2012 by asterisk2a
Kommentar zu Merkels Rolle auf dem EU-Gipfel - SPIEGEL ONLINE
Nach EU Summit

Der Rettungsschirm ESM soll künftig auch direkt Banken unterstützen können - das könnte vor allem Spanien helfen, denn so werden die ESM-Hilfen nicht mehr auf die spanische Schuldenlast angerechnet. Und Staaten sollen nun Geld aus dem Rettungsschirm erhalten können, ohne im Gegenzug ein strenges Überwachungsprogramm zu akzeptieren - das hilft vor allem Italien. Das hochverschuldete Land hat nun zumindest die theoretische Option, ESM-Geld zu beantragen, ohne sich dem Troika-Kuratel zu unterwerfen.

Doch direktes Geld an die Banken soll auch erst dann fließen, wenn eine wirksame Europäische Bankenaufsicht installiert ist. Das wird dauern.

Es war wichtig, Monti in Brüssel öffentlichkeitswirksam einen Punkt landen zu lassen.
EFSF  compromise  democracy  FrancoisHollande  Germany  angelamerkel  diplomacy  political  economy  political  ec  MarianoRajoy  Spain  Italy  mariomonti  Politics  Europe  Fiscal  Pact  ECB  ESM  2012  sovereign  debt  crisis  banking  crisis  PIIGS 
june 2012 by asterisk2a
Lethal Embrace? A Thought Experiment | Institute for New Economic Thinking
sovereign debt crisis and the bank crisis, conjoined twins

The problem Europe now faces is that monetary union, a fait accompli, left in place the historical symbiosis between national banking systems and national sovereignties, as well as the pattern of thinking formed by generations of experience with that symbiosis. As a consequence, when the crisis hit, national banking systems stepped in to help their national sovereigns, and national sovereigns stepped in to help their national banking systems.

Both thought they were doing the right thing, based on past experience. But the consequence has been to transform isolated sovereign debt crises into systemic bank crises, and to transform isolated national bank crises into systemic sovereign debt crises.

The deposit and fund outflow out of the periphery is migrating to core Europe. And because of the political backlash over giving up sovereignty, ... a banking union might be the next best.
banking  union  capital-flight  banking  crisis  bank  crisis  angelamerkel  Angela  ESM  EFSF  economic  model  economic-thought  economic  history  ECB  greatrecession  GFC  2012  banking  Europe  EMU  PIIGS  sovereign  debt  crisis 
june 2012 by asterisk2a
Too Big to Bail? Spain is Repeating Ireland’s Mistakes | Institute for New Economic Thinking

“Ireland went bankrupt stopping its banks going bankrupt,” Kinsella and Blyth write. “Spain simply cannot do this even if it wanted to: the problem is too big.”

They recommend several courses of action to prevent an Ireland-style collapse on a massive scale.


Spain's property bust (non performing loans and outright losses) on banks (& cajas lead by corrupt politicians) balance sheet is too big to underwrite (underwrite the debt). Spain is economically not able to underwrite all losses from its banks and cajas. And or able to nationalize and inject cash via gov debt with +6% yield. And Europe won't do it either ... I guess.

But 100bn last weekend into from via EFSF/ESM ... nobody knows if it was the last or the first of many.


This analysis show again that PIIGS are not all the same with their problems.
2012  EMU  Europe  PIIGS  sovereign  debt  crisis  ESM  EFSF  FROB  moralhazard  cajas  NPL  property  bubble  bubble  property  bankia  Ireland  banking  Spain  bailout 
june 2012 by asterisk2a
Europe’s banks: Slouching towards a banking union | The Economist
Media got wind of the banking problem in Spain via Bankia headlines and its troubles, and thus Spain's troubles, media also covered the capital flight/deposit exodus from PIIGS.

"Almost €100 billion, about one-tenth of GDP, was pulled out of the country’s banks and bond markets in the first quarter."

Yet, Europes (EMUs) banking problem gets much bigger as Europe as a whole is at stall speed and the periphery in yet another year of depression.

"Yet as quickly as banks are filling their existing capital holes, new ones seem to be appearing. Analysts at Nomura note that non-performing loans are rising in several European countries, including Italy and Germany. They reckon that a severe recession in Europe could cost the region’s 90 biggest banks €420 billion in losses and consume about a third of their capital, with big shortfalls in Britain, France and Germany in addition to those already emerging in Spain (see chart)."

Spains 100bnE bailout (into FROB, Spains TARP) is just 1of many.
NPL  confidence  FROB  ESM  EFSF  capital-flight  ECB  EMU  bankia  2012  bailout  greatrecession  banking  PIIGS  Spain 
june 2012 by asterisk2a
Europe's democracies must not subcontract their destiny to the Bundebank - Telegraph
yet another bailout ... now for spanish banks, ... reading between the headlines shows that this bailout is no step out of the fire for southern periphery, but one together into the fire.
EFSF  cajas  2012  ESM  EMU  Europe  bank  crisis  sovereign  debt  crisis  Bankia  Spain  bailout  PIIGS 
june 2012 by asterisk2a
Alexander Hamilton’s Eurozone Tour - Harold James - Project Syndicate
Europeans today have latched onto the practical side of Hamilton’s argument – that is, the idea that debt mutualization might be a means to cheaper credit; but they have worked out neither the political institutions, nor the shared public virtue, that Hamilton deemed crucial. The extended and politicized debate about debt restructuring has made a Hamiltonian solution more difficult, because the credit of the countries that would be party to it has become questionable.

An obvious starting point for a Hamiltonian Europe would be to set some standard limit for federalized national debt – perhaps the tarnished threshold of 60% of GDP that was mandated (without adequate enforcement) by the Maastricht convergence criteria, or perhaps a lower limit. Debt exceeding that amount would be left to the responsibility of the member states.

Collective burden-sharing is in the long run the only non-catastrophic way out of Europe’s current crisis, ...
ECB  debt  bubble  accountability  politics  transparency  PIIGS  sovereign  debt  crisis  ESM  EFSF  2012  Europe 
march 2012 by asterisk2a
Urteil zum Sondergremium: Rüffel für die Euro-Retter - SPIEGEL ONLINE - Nachrichten - Politik
Eigentlich sollten Bundesregierung und Bundestag längst wissen, was das Bundesverfassungsgericht davon hält, wenn in europäischen Fragen die Rechte der Abgeordneten beschnitten werden sollen: nicht viel.

So war es schon beim Urteil zum Europäischen Haftbefehl, zum EU-Reformvertrag von Lissabon und zum ersten Euro-Rettungsschirm. Und so ist es auch jetzt, im Urteil zum erweiterten Euro-Rettungsschirm (EFSF). Während es beim vorherigen Rettungsschirm-Verfahren noch um das "Ob" der Parlamentsbeteiligung ging, sagte Bundesverfassungsgerichtspräsident Andreas Voßkuhle in seiner Einführung zur Urteilsverkündung, mussten sich die Verfassungsrichter jetzt mit dem "Wie" der Parlamentsbeteiligung auseinandersetzen.

Beschlüsse über wesentliche haushaltspolitische Fragen, so die Botschaft, dürfen nicht generell in Hinterzimmern des Parlaments getroffen werden. Nur wenn es gar nicht anders geht,
2012  sovereign  debt  crisis  PIIGS  Greece  politics  accountability  transparency  angelamerkel  Germany  EFSF  bailout  Europe  democracy 
february 2012 by asterisk2a
Staatsbankrott: Was eine Griechen-Pleite jeden Bundesbürger kosten würde - SPIEGEL ONLINE - Nachrichten - Wirtschaft
Deutschland und damit jeder einzelne Steuerzahler haftet für vier Risiken:

für die Zahlungen aus dem ersten Rettungspaket für Griechenland,
für die griechischen Staatsanleihen, die bei der Europäische Zentralbank (EZB) liegen,
ferner für die griechischen Staatsanleihen im Besitz von staatlichen deutschen Banken
und schließlich für Ausfälle im sogenannten Target2-System.

[...] "Wenn Griechenland aus dem Euro austritt und seine Target-Salden nicht bedient, müsste Deutschland gemäß seinem Anteil von rund 27 Prozent an der EZB die Verluste tragen." Im schlimmsten Fall wären das geschätzte 27 Milliarden Euro. Westermann: "Die großen Risiken im Target-System sind meiner Meinung nach der Grund, dass Griechenland von den Euro-Ländern nicht fallengelassen wird."
sovereign  debt  crisis  PIIGS  contagion  Germany  ECB  EFSF  target2-system  2012  default  scenario  default  greece 
february 2012 by asterisk2a
ECB's Weidmann Spoils The Party: Says Leveraging EFSF Violation Of EU Treaty, Warns Of Hyperinflation | ZeroHedge
Weidmann, speaking in Berlin, says hyperinflation shows why monetizing debt wrong
Prohibition on monetary financing an important achievement.
Euro treaty rightly forbids monetary financing
Stable prices should be key goal of ECB
Leveraging EFSF with currency reserves prohibited
Says monetary analysis may gain importance at ECB

"One of the severest forms of monetary policy being roped in for fiscal purposes is monetary financing, in colloquial terms also known as the financing of public debt via the money printing press:” Weidmann
Pohibition of monetary financing in the euro area “is one of the most important achievements in central banking” and "specifically for Germany, it is also a key lesson from the experience of hyperinflation after World War I"
monetary  policy  hyperinflation  history  monetization  debt  ECB  EFSF 
november 2011 by asterisk2a
ISDA Text: Ultimate Decision on CDS Credit Events by Comte | ForexLive
Based on what we know now, it appears from news reports that the
Eurozone proposal involves a voluntary exchange that would not be
binding on all holders. As such, it does not appear to be likely that
the Eurozone proposal will trigger payments under existing CDS
contracts. However, whether or not it does so will be decided by the DC
on the basis of the specific facts, if a request is made to them.
Greece  haircut  EFSF  bailout  2011  CDS  contract 
october 2011 by asterisk2a
Slovakian EFSF Opponent Sulik: 'The Greatest Threat to Europe Is the Bailout Fund' - SPIEGEL ONLINE - News - International
The greatest threat to the euro is the bailout fund itself.


Sulik: It's an attempt to use fresh debt to solve the debt crisis. That will never work. But, for me, the main issue is protecting the money of Slovak taxpayers. We're supposed to contribute the largest share of the bailout fund measured in terms of economic strength. That's unacceptable.
EFSF  Slovakia  2011 
october 2011 by asterisk2a
London Banker: "Deficit Attention Disorder"
Geithner seems to abhor austerity and sacrifice, preferring any strategy which keeps debt growing to fund the investment banking, security, prisons and war industries on which the American economy now depends for so much of its GDP. (2 percent of Americans are in prison, while 1 percent work for the Department of Defense.) 
He encouraged a ten-fold increase in leverage of the EFSF to create a massive new debt overhang. Madness. The cure for a refinancing crisis is not more leverage to be later refinanced.
timgeithner  europe  sovereign  debt  debtoverhang  crisis  2011  EFSF 
september 2011 by asterisk2a
Bundesbank questions legality of EU bail-outs - Telegraph
Germany's Bundesbank has issued a blistering critique of EU bail-out policies, warning that the eurozone is drifting towards a debt union without "democratic legitimacy" or treaty backing.

"The latest agreements mean that far-reaching extra risks will be shifted to those countries providing help and to their taxpayers, and entail a large step towards a pooling of risks from particular EMU states with unsound public finances," said the bank's August report.It said an EU summit deal in late July threatens the principle that elected parliaments should control budgets. The Bundesbank said the scheme leaves creditor states with escalating "risks and burdens" yet no means of enforcing fiscal discipline to make this workable.
democracy  deficit  angelamerkel  2011  August  bailout  PIIGS  EFSF  ESM  bundestag  germany  constitution  transferunion  europe  EMU  ECB  badbank 
august 2011 by asterisk2a
U.S. Stocks Tumble on Global Growth Concerns, Economic Reports - Bloomberg
“It’s almost like a worldwide buyers strike,” “There’s a continued general malaise on global economic activity. People continue to downgrade their expectations on growth on a worldwide basis. There’s concern about funding problems. That’s making us very nervous here and as such we want to take risk out of portfolios at least for the immediate future.”
‘Dangerously Close’The U.S. and Europe are “dangerously close to recession,” Morgan Stanley analysts including Chetan Ahya said in the note. “Recent policy errors, especially Europe’s slow and insufficient response to the sovereign crisis and the drama around lifting the U.S. debt ceiling, have weighed down on financial markets and eroded business and consumer confidence.”
politics  mistake  error  folly  policy  USA  europe  PIIGS  sovereign  debt  crisis  austerity  UK  germany  barackobama  angelamerkel  sarkozy  davidcameron  GeorgeOsborne  EFSF  ESM 
august 2011 by asterisk2a
Greek Bank Run Continues Unabated: 3.8 Billion In June Outflows Bring Total Deposit Base To Mid-2007 Levels | ZeroHedge
Who could have possibly imagined that in the month of June, Greek banks would see yet another major deposit outflow. Alas, according to just released NBG data, June deposit outflows by households and corporates amounted to €3.8 billion, bringing the total down to just €188 billion. This is a whopping 20% decline in total Greek bank deposits since January 2010. It also means that each increasing outflow merely plants the seeds for even more outflows in the next month as less and less confidence (and cash) remains in Greek banks.
capital-controls  Greece  2011  PIIGS  banking  banks  contagion  confidence  systemicrisk  politics  policy  Europe  bailout  EFSF  ECB 
august 2011 by asterisk2a
European Central Bank must go nuclear to save Europe - Telegraph
The ECB should not 'sterilize' purchases of Italian and Spanish bonds to offset stimulus but instead allow the liquidity to course through the system. Dr King said the eurozone will have to embrace fiscal union in the end or face the same sort of "fiscal anarchy leading to financial implosion" that destroyed post-Soviet rouble area.

Mr Cailloux said private investors will not return to the market until the debts of Italy and Spain are on a "clear declining trend" and there is no longer any serious risk of contagion.
ECB  PIIGS  2011  sovereign  debt  G7  crisis  monetary  policy  monetization  folly  Fed  ZIRP  QE  bailout  EFSF  Italy  Spain  contagion  greatrecession  recovery  GFC 
august 2011 by asterisk2a
Anleihenkufe: Euro-Retter riskieren Inflation - SPIEGEL ONLINE - Nachrichten - Wirtschaft
Das nächste Tabu ist gebrochen. Die Europäische Zentralbank will jetzt auch italienische Staatsanleihen aufkaufen.  Mit dieser Politik nähert sie sich immer weiter ihrem amerikanischen Pendant, der Fed, an. Die Gefahr dabei: Die Inflation könnte steigen.

"Die Fed ist nicht mehr unabhängig", sagt Scheide. "Geldpolitik und Finanzpolitik sind in den USA vermischt worden. Das ist genau das, was Europa nicht will. Denn das würde das Vertrauen in die EZB untergraben."

 "Kauft die EZB Anleihen am Kapitalmarkt, so steigt die Basisgeldmenge"  "Sollte die Geldmenge letztlich in der Privatwirtschaft ankommen, würde sie sich, so lehrt die Erfahrung, früher oder später in steigenden Preisen entladen."
Noch ist dieser Effekt in Europa überschaubar. Zu gering war bisher das Volumen der Anleihenkäufe. Zudem hat die EZB stets versucht, das neu geschaffene Geld dem Markt an anderer Stelle wieder zu entziehen. Dieses "Neutralisieren" wird jedoch umso schwieriger, je größer die Beträge werden.
ECB  Fed  monetization  Sterilization  debt  sovereign  crisis  trichet  PIIGS  USA  EFSF  inflation  stability  credibility  Euro  Dollar  expectations  economics  monetary  policy  fiscal  folly  bailout  dilemma  QE  quantitative-easing 
august 2011 by asterisk2a
ECB Moves to Prop Up Italy, Spain -
August got hot, downgrade of USA. Contagion in Southern Europe - Spain and Italy.

ECB intervention to prop up Italy and Spain is a watershed in Europe's handling of the financial crisis. The central bank has so far insisted that the main responsibility for action lies with national governments. A decision to buy Italian and Spanish bonds is tantamount to conceding that the euro's member states are unable or unwilling to respond effectively, turning the ECB into the lead firefighter—and the euro zone's lender of last resort. That could reshape the future of Europe's monetary union.

The ECB move "buys a significant amount of time" for Spain and Italy,
Yet the decision will be hotly debated both inside and outside the ECB. At least three central bankers from Northern Europe, including the ECB's powerful German contingent, resisted the move, according to a person familiar with the matter.
PIIGS  italy  spain  ECB  monetization  debt  sovereign  crisis  2011  ESM  EFSF  monetary  policy  QE  creditrating  USA  downgrade 
august 2011 by asterisk2a
Italy in eye of the storm as cash runs low - Telegraph
. "The outlook is difficult and the risks elevated. Risks are tilted to the downside and potentially severe. Many of the imbalances and structural weaknesses accumulated during the boom remain to be fully addressed,"
UK  Spain  italy  austerity  PIIGS  EFSF  economy  IMF  outlook  2011  sovereign  debt  crisis 
august 2011 by asterisk2a
Italy money supply plunge flashes red warning signals - Telegraph
M1 in Italy have fallen at an annual rate of 7pc over the last six months, faster than during the build-up to the great recession in 2008," said Simon Ward from Henderson Global Investors.Such a dramatic contraction of M1 cash and overnight deposits typically heralds a slump six to 12 months later. Italy's economy is already vulnerable – industrial output fell 0.6pc in May, and the forward looking PMI surveys have dropped below the recession line."What is disturbing is that the numbers in the core eurozone have started to deteriorate sharply as well. Central banks normally back-pedal or reverse policy when M1 starts to fall, so it is amazing that the European Central Bank went ahead with a rate rise this month," Mr Ward said.

"We expect the crisis to continue deteriorating, and threaten to undermine the entire euro area as European policy-makers still misunderstand market dynamics. They show no sign of catching up with reality," 
= wrong policy response, policy mistake
moneysupply  italy  france  2011  recovery  greatrecession  M1  M3  ECB  economics  economy  politics  EFSF  ESM  bailout  PIIGS  sovereign  debt  crisis  policy  mistake  wrong  decision 
july 2011 by asterisk2a
Wolfgang Munchau On How The Greek Rollover "Deal" Is A Toxic CDO | zero hedge
"This structure is still not quite so complex as some of the more elaborate CDOs we have encountered in the global financial crisis. If you take some time to work through the arrows and boxes, you see relatively quickly that this complex structure is not a private sector participation at all. Rather it is a private sector bail-out...

The punchline is not surprising, but it is funny:
The rollover agreement represents, from an economic point of view, nothing but a collateralised bond. It subordinates all other bondholders. The rating agencies would normally not hesitate to attach a default rating to Greek government debt.
So the solution is to create a complex structure, and claim that it is technically not a collateralised bond, but something that defies definition.
transparency  financial  finance  financialcrisis  financialmarket  ratingagencies  default  greece  PIIGS  EFSF  ESM  bailout  2011  germany  ECB  angelamerkel  ponzischeme  CDO  SIV  scam  sovereign  debt  crisis 
july 2011 by asterisk2a
Euro Debt Crisis - Europe Must 'Acknowledge' Greek Default: Economist - CNBC
"Eventually we will have to acknowledge that in fact there's a Greek default and take it from there," Sir Howard Davies, former director of the London School of Economics and former chairman of the Financial Services Authority, the UK banking watchdog said.
"We are dancing on the head of a pin here, in trying to pretend that the default is not a default, but it's quite clear that nobody would lend to Greece at the moment in a free market."
Greece would likely be in "selective default" even if it follows a debt rollover plan pushed by French banks, ratings agency Standard & Poor's warned on Monday.
default  debt  sovereign  greece  PIIGS  2011  EFSF  ESM 
july 2011 by asterisk2a
Exclusive: Greek woes may eclipse Lehman: Ackermann | Reuters
Deutsche Bank's (DBKGn.DE) CEO described the situation in Greece as critical and warned contagion to other euro zone members could lead to a crisis bigger than the one sparked by the collapse of Lehman Brothers.

"If it is Greece alone, that's already big. But if other countries are drawn in through contagion, it could be bigger than Lehman," the Deutsche Bank chief said at a Reuters banking event on Monday.
deutschebank  josefackermann  contagion  PIIGS  2011  greece  bailout  austerity  EFSF  ESM  germany 
june 2011 by asterisk2a
IMF: Spain needs bolder job-market reforms - BusinessWeek
 "err on the side of boldness."
It urged the government to decentralize collective bargaining to the individual company level; move away from indexing wages to inflation; and cut severance payments to at least EU average levels. Restrictions on dismissing established workers have made companies wary of hiring people, especially younger workers entering the job force.
Spain  reform  austerity  2011  PIIGS  IMF  economics  economy  unemployment  youth  EFSF  ESM 
june 2011 by asterisk2a
EU urged to block Greece bail-out - Telegraph
The Chinese Foreign Ministry said it was willing to talk about ways it could help stabilise the European financial system during its visit to Britain, Germany and Hungary this week.Ahead of the visit by Premier Wen Jiabao, a spokesman said: “The Chinese government has already taken a series of proactive measures to push Sino-Europe trade and economic cooperation, such as buying euro bonds … China is willing to continue helping European countries realise economic growth.”
PIIGS  china  bailout  2011  EFSF  ESM  Greece  default 
june 2011 by asterisk2a
Special report: Europe's Greek tragedy | Reuters
In Europe, by contrast, the banks holding Greek debt are gradually being bought out by European governments in what former Argentine central bank governor Mario Biejer has likened to a "giant Ponzi scheme".
"If the sword of a debt restructuring must eventually fall in order to render Greece's debt stock manageable, that sword will fall principally on the neck of the official sector lenders," wrote Lee Buchheit, a lawyer at Cleary Gottlieb Steen & Hamilton in New York who helped negotiate Uruguay's 2003 debt restructuring, in a paper on Greece's options last month.
"The original creditors will have swapped place in the tumbrel with official lenders quite literally in the shadow of the guillotine."
Reuters calculations, based on a conservative estimate that official lenders -- EU governments, the IMF and ECB -- will hold about 160 billion euros in Greek debt two years from now,  ...
Greece  default  economy  PIIGS  2011  restructuring  bailout  EFSF  ESM  ECB 
may 2011 by asterisk2a
Head Of Eurogroup Admits To Lying About "Secret Greek Meeting" Out Of Fears For Market Collapse - "When It Becomes Serious, You Have To Lie" | zero hedge
On the tape, Mr. Juncker says he has “had to lie” and, speaking about touchy economic topics, “When it becomes serious, you have to lie.”
EMU  Europe  Euro  PIIGS  greece  2011  sovereign  debt  politics  economics  default  restructuring  ireland  portugal  EFSF  ESM  ECB  Fed  fraud 
may 2011 by asterisk2a
Portugal Says Economy to Shrink Twice as Much as Forecast Under Added Cuts - Bloomberg
Portugal’s economy will shrink twice as much as forecast this year as the government implements additional austerity measures to qualify for an international aid package of as much as 78 billion euros ($116 billion).
Gross domestic product will decline 2 percent both in 2011 and 2012, Portuguese Finance Minister Fernando Teixeira dos Santos forecast today at a press conference in Lisbon to announce the bailout agreement with the European Union and the International Monetary Fund. That compares with the government’s March projection that GDP would shrink 0.9 percent this year and expand 0.3 percent in 2012.
portugal  bailout  2011  IMF  austerity  EFSF  piigs 
may 2011 by asterisk2a
Griechen-Umschuldung: Chef von Euro-Rettungsfonds unterstelltBanken Gier - SPIEGEL ONLINE - Nachrichten - Wirtschaft
"In den achtziger und neunziger Jahren haben die Banken für die Restrukturierung von Staatsschulden in Lateinamerika und Asien sehr hohe Honorare kassiert. Das würden sie in Europa gerne wiederholen."
Zwar würde eine Teilentschuldung des Landes einige Banken dazu zwingen, griechische Staatspapiere in ihrer Bilanz teilweise abzuschreiben, räumte Regling ein. Die dabei entstehenden Verluste würden sich aber "in Grenzen halten". Dagegen wären die mit einer Restrukturierung verbundenen Provisionen vielversprechend.Der Präsident der Europäischen Zentralbank (EZB), Jean-Claude Trichet, glaubt ebenfalls, dass die Banken den Schuldenschnitt Griechenlands bewusst herbeireden wollen. Nach "Handelsblatt"-Informationen hat Trichet die Finanzminister der Euro-Zone explizit davor gewarnt, sich im Hinblick auf Griechenland von den Instituten beeinflussen zu lassen.
EFSF  default  restructuring  greece  PIIGS  2011  trichet  banking  fees  ECB  europe  history 
may 2011 by asterisk2a
Eurozone ship is on the course that was set for it: heading for the rocks - Telegraph
Two events last week saw the crisis in the eurozone deepen - the Portuguese bail-out and the ECB's interest rate increase. But much more is brewing.

Debt is one facet of the euro's crisis. There are three others.
The second factor is the property market.
The third factor is the weakness of the banks.

The euro is supposedly cemented by unshakeable political will. Yet not only has the eurozone failed to establish workable union-wide political institutions, but the political situation in member countries has turned ugly.Portugal and Belgium are without governments.
ECB  PIIGS  contagion  2011  bailout  EFSF  ESM  banking  europe  EMU 
april 2011 by asterisk2a
Forget the bailout: the euro rate rise could finish off southern Europe | Business | The Observer
Analysis by City consultancy Fathom shows that because the interest rates on the bailouts provided to Greece and Ireland track the European Central Bank's lending rate, a series of increases could push these countries – and Portugal – into default.
"If the ECB continues to tighten policy, the impact is clear: default is more or less inevitable," says Fathom director Danny Gabay. "Greece is clearly on an unsustainable path."
Fathom also warns that Spain remains vulnerable, despite Madrid insisting last week that its economy is much healthier than Portugal's and its debts are much more manageable. Spanish banks must roll over debts worth more than 5% of GDP this year, and more than 9% in 2012, in addition to the government's financing needs. A two-point increase in the interest Madrid pays in the bond markets – much of which could come from the ECB, even without a further loss of confidence from bond investors – would, on Fathom's calculations, force Spain into a fiscal crisis.
ECB  2011  PIIGS  EFSF  bailout 
april 2011 by asterisk2a
European bail-outs: Pay pals | The Economist
Who's paying for the euro-area bail-out?
PORTUGAL’S bail-out means another stage in Europe’s debt crisis and another call on non-European coffers. The total €865 billion ($1.2 trillion) pot available for euro-area rescues looks enormous, more than enough to cope with Greece, Ireland and Portugal’s anticipated needs besides. Almost half of that comes from the European Financial Stability Facility, a €440 billion euro-zone fund whose major contributors are Germany, France and Italy. But the EFSF’s effective lending capacity is only €250 billion, because only six of its 17 members have a AAA credit rating. European leaders have pledged to bring the fund’s actual firepower up to €440 billion by the summer but in the meantime the IMF has more cash on hand, at €280 billion. If all that money were used (a very big if), America would end up lending indebted euro-zone nations €50 billion.
EFSF  IMF  PIIGS  bailout  2011  details  moralhazard  global  finance  banking 
april 2011 by asterisk2a
Brazil's Lula to Portugal: Don't take bailout - Yahoo! News
"The IMF won't resolve Portugal's problem, like it didn't solve Brazil's," Silva said during a trip to Portugal. "Whenever the IMF tried to take care of countries' debts, it created more problems than solutions."Silva didn't elaborate, but in the past he has criticized the IMF for espousing "orthodox and recessive concepts."Brazil took a $41.5 billion IMF loan in 1998. Like many emerging markets, the Latin American country has enjoyed an economic boom in recent years. Silva, who left office in January, is credited with generating wealth through a blend of fiscal discipline and innovative investment strategies designed to reduce poverty.Portugal's outgoing Prime Minister Jose Socrates insisted again that his government "is determined not to ask" for a bailout.
further, Portugal central bank lowered its 2011 growth outlook to minus 1.4% from minus 1.3%

 Dilma Roussef,  her country could come to the aid of Portugal,"Brazil could help Portugal like Portugal has helped Brazil,"
portugal  brazil  2011  IMF  politics  economics  economy  history  bailout  EFSF  ESM  recession 
march 2011 by asterisk2a
Trichet, King Haunted by Bank of Japan's Lost Decade Interest-Rate Error - Bloomberg
European central bankers agitating for higher interest rates to quell inflation may be ignoring the lessons of Japan’s economic history.
As the European Central Bank and Bank of England consider tightening monetary policy, HSBC Holdings Plc and Fathom Financial Consulting warn officials risk misjudging the inflation threat and may end up hurting their recoveries. That’s what repeatedly happened in Japan in the past quarter century as policy makers constrained credit only to reverse within months when expansion faltered.
“The danger is of a policy mistake,” said Stephen King, HSBC’s London-based chief economist and a former U.K. Treasury official. “In an attempt to control inflation this year they could set the scene for more disappointing growth in the future as happened in Japan.”

Ben S. Bernanke, now chairman of the U.S. Federal Reserve, said in 2003 Japan’s “performance is due almost entirely to a very poor monetary policy.”
Japan  history  ECB  policy  mistake  trichet  inflation  ZIRP  PIIGS  EFSF  ESM  politics  lostdecade  2011  lesson  economics  monetary  benbernanke  adamsposen 
march 2011 by asterisk2a
EU Leaders Clash at Summit -
BRUSSELS—Sharp disagreements opened up among European Union leaders at a summit here over a German-led plan to boost the competitiveness of weaker euro-zone economies, threatening to unsettle recently calm European financial markets.
The German proposals, backed by France, are viewed as the price for an agreement to expand a bailout fund for the struggling economies of the euro zone and give the fund greater powers to stem the region's debt crisis—a move seen as critical to restoring confidence in the euro.
EFSF  2011  angelamerkel  sarkozy  competitiveness  politics  EMU  Europe  PIIGS 
february 2011 by asterisk2a
Merkel Turns Crisis into Opportunity to Reshape Euro Zone - Bloomberg
Germany’s message is “we don’t care about pain and the only solutions are austerity and structural reforms, and anything else has to wait for 2013,” when the EU aims to have a permanent defense system for the euro in place, said Roubini. “You need a more comprehensive solution sooner.”
Most international investors predict at least one of the 17 nations will leave the euro area within five years and that Greece and Ireland will default, according to the January 2011 Bloomberg Global Poll that underscored the urgency leaders face in calming markets. The same poll ranked Merkel as the most favored of nine global policy makers.
germany  greece  unemployment  economy  EMU  2011  angelamerkel  sarkozy  leadership  Europe  Euro  EFSF 
february 2011 by asterisk2a
Accelerating Deposit Flight In Ireland Forces Irish Central Bank To Print Money Independent Of ECB | zero hedge
So let's do the math: ICB "money printing" has increased by €40 billion. For a country whose GDP is about €160 billion, this means that Ireland has printing the equivalent of 25% of its GDP. Put in American terms, this would be the equivalent of about $3.5 trillion in 3 months... In this context we wonder just what the ECB considers "systemically significant."
ECB  monetary  policy  trichet  2011  inflation  Ireland  banking  banks  bailout  Fed  USA  moneysupply  creation  fraud  AIB  EFSF  Europe  politics 
january 2011 by asterisk2a
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