asterisk2a + ecb   487

(4081) Warum wir alle ärmer werden – Top-Ökonom erklärt die Gründe! // Mission Money - YouTube
houses are unproductive / schuldeninfusion erhaelt am leben, zombie u.a. / wer bezahlt fuer EU schuldenschnitt? / German econ illusion / banken in eu immernoch sanierungsbeduerftig /
Productivity  output  gap  secular  stagnation  economic  history  book  Robotics  AI  augmented  artificial  intelligence  GFC  recovery  debt  overhang  Austerity  household  wage  growth  inflation  deflationary  deflation  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  Japan  BOE  Fed  BOJ  ECB  income  zombie  Richard  Koo  disposable  discretionary  spending  bank  bailout  NPL 
october 2017 by asterisk2a
Back to the future on inflation
[ no rising demand = no inflation ] Globalisation and the march of technology have strengthened the hand of employers and weakened that of workers. So it is no surprise that though unemployment has relentlessly fallen, wage growth remains in the doldrums.

Then there is the war between generations. As the baby boomers approached retirement, they sought to safeguard their wealth. Inflation-targeting central banks, the dismantling of the welfare state and fiscal austerity were the natural results. The modern macroeconomic constitution has disenfranchised the inflationary constituency of the young. &! https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/tax-cuts-for-the-rich-solve-nothing-by-joseph-e--stiglitz-2017-07
USA  UK  European  Union  inflation  targeting  GDP  demand  economic  history  babyboomers  Generationy  Generation  Generationengerechtigkeit  Millennials  Austerity  secular  stagnation  working  poor  Precariat  poverty  trap  social  income  mobility  inequality  1%  10%  Super  Rich  Plutocracy  Oligarchy  Taxation  trickle-down  ECB  Fed  BOE  BOJ  demographic  bubble  ageing  population  pension  scheme  obligation  Brexit  bank  bailout  recovery  GFC 
july 2017 by asterisk2a
(2195) Mark Blyth Telling The US Senate That Austerity Policy Is Wrong - YouTube
Mark Blyth & Makers v Takers & Erbschaft & asset & capital tax // wolfgang schäuble George Osborne David Cameron // >> Growth cures debt, cuts / austerity causes debt!!!
Mark  Blyth  UK  USA  Austerity  taxation  corporate  corporatism  welfare  state  NHS  income  tax  GFC  asset  capital  recovery  underinvestment  secular  stagnation  bond  bubble  economic  history  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  BOE  productivity  budget  Super  Rich  Plutocracy  trickle-down  Oligarchy  1%  10%  profit  maximisation  shareholder  immigration  gini  Coefficient  FX  Forex  confidence  fairy  globalisation  evasion  avoidance  HMRC  bank  bailout  badbank  bad  Schuldenbremse  Fiscal  Pact  David  Cameron  George  Osborne  Wolfgang  Schäuble  Angela  Merkel  PIGS  Policy  IMF  BIS  ECB  Fed 
july 2017 by asterisk2a
(1928) Keiser Report: Financialized Economy (E1088) - YouTube
All the Plenary’s Men // tbtf is a protection racket!!! (FSB, SFO, systemic relevant banks) & laws - immunity from protection - protects people from prosecution. ... tbtf "global banking cartel" - they can to no wrong. more powerful than the gov. sovereign power.
HSBC  money  laundering  London  GFC  compliance  oversight  self-regulation  regulation  regulators  George  Osborne  benbernanke  FSB  BIS  BOE  centralbanks  SFO  fraud  UK  USA  ECB  systemic  White-collar  crime  banking  TBTF  toobigtofail  bank  bailout  Transparency  accountability  Russia  War  on  Drugs  corruption  lobby  tax  evasion  avoidance  terrorism  terror  ethics  governance  abuse  Military–industrial  complex 
june 2017 by asterisk2a
The Biggest Real Estate Bubble Of All Time Just Did The Impossible | Zero Hedge
There are two things at work here. The natural resource distortion to the real economy. And the Super Rich and Criminals and Asia/China who are desperate to divest and park their riches in democracies and rule of law and hard "assets"
Canada  bubble  property  Super  Rich  1%  money  laundering  Asia  China  Russia  Brazil  corruption  G20  speculation  speculative  London  CAD  immigration  Student  Plutocracy  Oligarchy  tax  evasion  avoidance  QE  ZIRP  NIRP  unintended  consequences  Fed  BOE  ECB  organised  crime  war  on  drugs  natural  resources 
june 2017 by asterisk2a
Distortion of financial economy (speculation), underinvestment in real things.
7:33 QE and ZIRP and banks business model, the financialisation of the western economies, is causing underinvestment now for a too long time, in the real economy (companies, R&D, infrastructure, edu, productivity). - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZL31ORGxZPk - TBTF central banks w QE blance sheet unable to unwind it! Loss of faith in politics and the system. (2) credit bubble from consumers that made the recovery w the help of ZIRP QE - zombie consumer zombie companies zombie banks - kept just about alive w QE and ZIRP. america uk worth more on paper due to credit and forex USD £ than their real economy realer wirtschaftswert (3) Argentina example.
ZIRP  NIRP  QE  housing  mortgage  bubble  real  estate  squeezed  middle  class  working  poor  poverty  trap  social  income  mobility  recovery  GFC  central  banks  ECB  BOE  Fed  BOJ  austerity  Schuldenbremse  trickle-down  underinvestment  economic  history  TBTF 
may 2017 by asterisk2a
Austerity was a bigger disaster than we thought - The Washington Post
That, at least, is what economists Christopher House and Linda Tesar of the University of Michigan and Christïan Proebsting of the École Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne found when they looked at Europe's budget-cutting experience the last eight years. It turns out that cutting spending right after the worst crisis in 80 years only led to a lower gross domestic product and, in the most extreme cases, higher debt-to-GDP ratios. That's right: trying to reduce debt levels sometimes increased debt burdens. [...] In short, austerity hurt what it was supposed to help, and helped hurt the economy even more than a once-in-three-generations crisis already had.
Austerity  IMF  OECD  UK  USA  Germany  Schuldenbremse  Fiscal  Pact  NHS  Council  DWP  economic  history  GFC  recovery  bank  bailout  neoliberalism  crony  capitalism  corporatism  ECB  BOE  Fed  monetary  policy  reflate  reflation  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  WallStreet  10%  1%  Super  Rich  Plutocracy  Oligarchy 
february 2017 by asterisk2a
Harald Lesch Die Ursache allen Übels Das Geldsystem unbedingt anschauen - YouTube
kein downward trend! Wissenschaftlich wissen wir was passiert und was sache ist, aber Gier und Elite macht nichts. Renewables ist mindestmass, Landwirtschaft die grosse aufgabe!
climatechange  globalwarming  global  warming  climate  change  Landwirtschaft  economic  damage  long-term  Greed  Gier  food  security  national  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  underinvestment  BOE  ECB  Fed  renewable  Carnism  Omnivore  Vegan  monetary  policy  agriculture  Military–industrial  Complex  profit  maximisation  antibiotic  antibiotics  shareholder  value 
february 2017 by asterisk2a
Mario Draghi in der Kritik: "Die Geldpolitik macht den Kapitalismus kaputt" - SPIEGEL ONLINE
Danach kamen die Übertreibungen am US-Immobilienmarkt, im Süden der Eurozone und auf den Rohstoffmärkten. Wir haben es mit einer Kette wandernder Blasen zu tun, die von der Geldpolitik getrieben werden. Die neue Blase bildet sich nie dort, wo zuvor die alte geplatzt ist. Die Regierungen reagieren auf einen Crash mit schärferen Regeln, aber die Spekulation ist ihnen immer einen Schritt voraus.
GFC  recovery  economic  history  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  ECB  BOE  Fed  USA  UK  Europe  European  Union  PIGS  secular  stagnation  household  debt  consumer  car  loan  student  credit  card  private  Austerity  IMF  OECD  Dodd-Frank  self-regulation  Regulation  regulators  FSA  BaFin  speculation  speculative  ROI  productivity  output  gap  inflation  targeting  monetary  policy  fiscal  Schuldenbremse  Pact  inequality  capital  assets  gini  Coefficient  Super  Rich  1%  10%  Plutocracy  Oligarchy  bank  bailout  zombie  NPL 
february 2017 by asterisk2a
Italy seeks €20bn for banks as Monte dei Paschi flounders - BBC News
The Italian government will seek parliamentary approval to borrow up to €20bn (£17bn) to support its fragile banking sector and potentially rescue Monte dei Paschi di Siena.
bank  bailout  Italy  ECB  NPL  non-performing  loan 
december 2016 by asterisk2a
Italy’s €360 billion referendum – POLITICO
Italy’s banking system is staggering under €360 billion in bad loans. Almost any outcome that destabilizes Italian politics would send tremors through the country’s rickety financial system. While the long-term consequences could be dramatic — in a worse case scenario perhaps leading to the collapse of the eurozone — the first victims could be efforts to rescue two of Italy’s largest lenders.
non-performing  NPL  bad  bank  Italy  Referendum  Renzi  contagion  European  Union  systemicrisk  sovereign  debt  crisis  GFC  economic  history  recession  recovery  Austerity  ECB  Banking  Supervision  MarioDraghi  Greece  Spain  Portugal  PIGS  UK  exposure  bailout  bail-in  bailin  recapitalization  recapitalisation 
november 2016 by asterisk2a
The Deutsche Bank crisis could take Angela Merkel down – and the Euro
Over the weekend, the German Chancellor Angela Merkel waded into the mess, briefing that there could be no government bail-out of the bank. [...] If it was in trouble, it was on its own. [... would be another example of socialism for the rich, and the poor must suffer waht they must - varoufakis ]

But hold on. Surely that is an extra-ordinary decision? If the German government does not stand behind the bank, then inevitably all its counter-parties – the other banks and institutions it deals with – are going to start feeling very nervous about trading with it.
Angela  Merkel  bailout  Deutsche  Bank  Italy  contagion  TBTF  systemic  risk  investment  banking  Germany  Bundesbank  ECB  AfD  CDU  CSU  SPD  far-right  right-wing  austerity  Commerzbank  bail-in  bailin 
september 2016 by asterisk2a
RBS to charge major financial institutions for holding their cash | Business | The Guardian
Royal Bank of Scotland is to start charging major financial institutions for any cash it holds on their behalf for trading purposes, in the latest illustration of the impact of Mark Carney’s post-Brexit vote stimulus package.
ZIRP  NIRP  QE  UK  USA  Germany  unintended  consequences  unknown  economic  history  BOE  FED  ECB  BOJ  monetary  policy  distortion 
august 2016 by asterisk2a
Central Banking and Inequality – Taking Off the Blinders
"Despite studies that suggest that the post-crisis unconventional monetary policies tend to exacerbate inequalities, the standard line of central banks is that these “unintended consequences” fall outside their mandate."
BIS  central  banks  BOE  ECB  Fed  inequality  Gini  coefficient  reflate  reflation  bank  bailout  bailout  1%  20%  10%  triple-lock  pension  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  unintended  consequences  monetary  policy  fiscal  policy  Pact  austerity  Schuldenbremse  secular  stagnation  squeezed  middle  class  wage  stagnation  wage  growth  income  growth  income  distribution  Precariat  GFC  recovery  Helicopter  Money 
july 2016 by asterisk2a
Here's Why All Pension Funds Are Doomed, Doomed, Doomed
Given that both The Economist and The Wall Street Journal have covered the impossibility of pension funds achieving their expected returns, this reality cannot be a surprise to anyone in a leadership role. [...] Here's problem #1 in a nutshell: the average public pension fund still expects to earn an average annual return of 7.69%, year after year, decade after decade.

This is roughly triple the nominal (not adjusted for inflation) yield on a 30-year Treasury bond (about 2.65%). The only way any fund manager can earn 7.7% or more in a low-yield environment is to make extremely high risk bets that consistently pay off. //&! Millennials are first gen to have earned less in their 20's than previous gens. - bit.ly/2a9M98K
ZIRP  NIRP  QE  unintended  consequences  pension  obligation  triple-lock  pension  babyboomers  Baby  Boomers  demographic  bubble  ageing  population  hunt  for  yield  life  insurance  insurance  industry  monetary  policy  Helicopter  Money  monetary  theory  bond  bubble  Richard  Koo  liquidity  trap  economic  history  recovery  Fed  BOE  ECB  Abenomics  western  world  Japan  BOJ  pension  fund  Beton  Gold  Betongold  property  bubble  asset  allocation  funds  allocation  asset  bubble  Pensioner  pension  scheme  secular  stagnation  austerity  deflation  deflationary  Confidence  Fairy  IMF  OECD  credit  boom  credit  bubble  New  Normal  Great  Moderation  economic  harm  economic  damage  reflate  reflation  equity  bubble  distortion 
july 2016 by asterisk2a
Keiser Report: Gold & World’s Debt Problems (Summer Solutions series E940) - YouTube
deflationary trap/liquidity trap - orthodox monetary policy w austerity = stagnation. & west is exporting deflation. // if it is good for consumers ... break up banks. // hedging is BS ... you double the system you double the risk. [...] banks are now bigger! ... ban most derivatives, and reintroduce glass stegall // Black-Schoeles - there is no such think as risk free rate and no such thing as the past reflect the future. risk is not equally distributed. [...] VAR is flawed. //
deflation  deflationary  NIRP  currency  war  currency  debasement  ZIRP  QE  Helicopter  Money  secular  stagnation  western  world  Abenomics  BOE  BOJ  Fed  ECB  economic  history  Richard  Koo  liquidity  trap  debt  overhang  balance  sheet  recession  consumer  debt  household  debt  mortgage  mortgage  market  mortgage  rates  distortion  hunt  for  yield  credit  boom  credit  bubble  PBOC  China  reflate  reflation  squeezed  middle  class  wage  growth  income  growth  income  distribution  income  disparity  working  poor  Precariat  Brexit  GFC  too  big  to  jail  productive  investment  underinvestment  austerity  history  productivity  gap  financial  instruments  investment  banking  global  economy  globalisation  globalization  derivatives  output  gap  productivity  recovery  neoliberal  neoliberalism  Chicago  School  neoclassical  economics  deregulation  Wall  Street  speculative  bubble  property  bubble  Beton  Gold  Betongold  stagnation  aggregate  demand  aggregate  demand  short-fall  too  big  to  bail  too  big  to  fail  TBTF  complexity  systemic  risk  systemrelevant  systemicrisk  systemrelevanz  zombie  bank  zombie  banks  non-performing  loan  leverage  hedge  Glass-Steagall  Black-Scholes  Equation 
july 2016 by asterisk2a
Deutsche Bank Loves Helicopter Money: Why "Big Inflation Is Coming... But Will First Require A Crisis"
[NEED FOR CHANGE OF WIND - deflationary pressures ] Europe is another story. Germany must let their southern neighbors cheat on deficits and bank recapitalizations. “Spanish election showed if you let them cheat and growth surprises positively then extremists don’t do so well. Europe can only survive as an inflation zone. Will it be formally tolerated? Probably not. Will governments cheat anyway with ECB support?” Probably.
Deutsche  Bank  Italy  PIGS  sovereign  debt  crisis  austerity  Germany  Fiscal  Pact  Schuldenbremse  ECB  MarioDraghi  BuBa  Jens  Weidmann  Wolfgang  Schäuble  Angela  Merkel  zombie  zombie  banks  Richard  Koo  Helicopter  Money  monetary  policy  monetary  stimulus  policy  monetary  theory  deflation  deflationary  Brexit  European  Bank  Supervision  BaFin  BOE  BOJ  Abenomics  right-wing  far  right  far-right  Front  National  AfD  UKIP  Centrist  recovery  income  distribution  income  inequality  Gini  coefficient  squeezed  middle  class  Precariat  working  poor  globalisation  globalization  Paul  Mason  crony  capitalism  capitalism  in  crisis  tax  evasion  tax  avoidance  poverty  poverty  trap  social  mobility  income  mobility  wage  stagnation  wage  growth  wage  pressure  income  growth  GFC  economic  history  liquidity  trap  balance  sheet  recession  debt  overhang  household  debt  consumer  debt  credit  card  credit  card  debt  western  world  secular  stagnation  non-performing  loan  bail-in  bailout  recapitalization  recapitalisation  UK  Japan 
july 2016 by asterisk2a
EU finance ministers get tough with Italian bank trying for third bailout
EU rules forbid troubled Tuscan bank Monte dei Paschi from receiving state aid, but its collapse would cause a political crisis for prime minister Matteo Renzi [...] a move that would need Brussels to break new rules designed to prevent such taxpayer bailouts after the 2008 global financial crisis. [... italy had a triple dip recession from 2008/9 counting ] //&! soundcloud.com/ft-world-weekly/italys-struggling-banks-pose-3 //&! Banks missold products again, in part - bit.ly/29Fmboz //&! bit.ly/29H4VPD 360mrdEuro NPL &! bit.ly/29B0d6I &! bit.ly/2a1sfdI &! Bad Bank #2 to be set-up - bit.ly/2a9plpN [...] technical analysis - http://bit.ly/29VP2YI
Matteo  Renzi  Angela  Merkel  Wolfgang  Schäuble  European  Bank  Supervision  bailout  bailin  Italy  zombie  zombie  banks  non-performing  loan  austerity  recession  Germany  Deutsche  Bank  contagion  contamination  systemic  risk  systemicrisk  systemrelevant  systemrelevanz  BaFin  ECB  Basel  III  Basel3  stresstest  Jeroen  Dijsselbloem  sovereign  debt  crisis  economic  history 
july 2016 by asterisk2a
Bancopalypse 2.0 - Some Disturbing Figures From The Looming Financial Crisis | Zero Hedge
Well-capitalized banks are supposed to have double-digit capital levels while making low risk investments.

Deutsche Bank, on the other hand, has a capital level of less that 3% (just like Lehman), and an incredibly risky asset base that boasts notional derivatives exposure of more than $70 trillion, roughly the size of world GDP.

Even the IMF has stated unequivocally that Deutsche Bank poses the greatest risk to global financial stability.

And the IMF would be right… except for all the other banks.

Because, meanwhile in Italy, nearly the entire Italian banking system is rapidly sliding into insolvency.

Italian banks are sitting on over 360 billion euros in bad loans right now and are in desperate need of a massive bailout.

IMF calculations show that Italian banks’ capital levels are among the lowest in the world, just ahead of Bangladesh.
Deutsche  Bank  derivatives  financial  instruments  BaFin  BuBa  European  Bank  Supervision  Italy  Spain  stresstest  PIGS  zombie  zombie  banks  non-performing  loan  capital  reserves  ECB  MarioDraghi  sovereign  debt  crisis  economic  history  Wolfgang  Schäuble  Angela  Merkel  banking  union  systemic  risk  systemicrisk  systemrelevant  systemrelevanz  TBTF  toobigtofail  too  big  to  bail  too  big  to  fail 
july 2016 by asterisk2a
Behind the Bond-Stock Divide Is a Big and Risky Bet on Central Banks - WSJ
The idea is that if stocks are rising, bond yields should be climbing too. Here's how to reconcile it. The answer is central banks. If rates are going to stay lower for longer; if more rounds of quantitative easing are coming; if new ways of easing are coming -- the rates should be going down and stocks moving higher. [...] It's about dividends paying more than bonds. 90% of the bond market universe is near 2% or lower. //&! http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-07-12/germany-about-sell-zero-coupon-10-year-bonds-first-time-ever //&! http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-07-13/we-just-found-out-who-has-been-buying-all-these-record-low-yielding-bonds - When your nation's bonds are trading with a record low 28bps negative yield (10Y JGBs), everything else in the world (aside from Swiss 10Y) is a relative 'value'...
bond  bubble  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  equity  bubble  hunt  for  yield  central  banks  BIS  Fed  BOE  ECB  BOJ  PBOC  secular  stagnation  wage  growth  output  gap  productivity  gap  squeezed  middle  class  working  poor  Precariat  inequality  Gini  coefficient  western  world  rising  middleclass  Asia  BRIC  income  distribution  tax  evasion  tax  avoidance  crony  capitalism  capitalism  in  crisis  capitalism  neoliberal  neoliberalism  globalisation  global  economy  globalization  free  trade  dividends  underinvestment  business  confidence  consumer  confidence  discretionary  spending  disposable  income  student  debt  consumer  debt  car  loan  property  bubble  speculative  bubble  speculative  bubbles  distortion  asset  allocation  austerity  AI  Robotics  automation  augmented  intelligence  Structural  Impediments  imbalance  unemployment  long-term  unemployment  skills  gap  skill-biased  technological  change  skills  shortage  economic  history  Brexit  technological  history  underemployed  underemployment  part-time  deflation  deflationary  JGB 
july 2016 by asterisk2a
"Deutsche Bank Poses The Greatest Risk To The Global Financial System": IMF
via Keister Report - https://youtu.be/fbh3rndGDN8 // a Italian banking crisis could topple them. that is why they (their economist) called for a EU bank bailout (shore up). //&! IMF Warns Of "Global Contagion" From Italy's Bank Crisis; Forecasts Two-Decade Long Recession - http://bit.ly/29sFINn - [...] "Unless asset quality and profitability problems are addressed in a timely manner, lingering problems of weaker banks can eventually weigh on the rest of the system," //&! http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-07-09/charting-epic-collapse-worlds-most-systemically-dangerous-bank //&! Analyst Warns Deutsche Bank's Problems May Now Be "Insurmountable" - http://bit.ly/29LwUjv - [...] we believe DBK is still over 40x levered. [...] Seeking outside capital is also likely to be difficult as management would likely find it hard to offer any type of return on new capital invested. //&! its known balance sheet - http://bit.ly/29usGKG - 1.74 trillion balance sheet!
Italy  Germany  derivatives  Deutsche  Bank  BuBa  BaFin  Wolfgang  Schäuble  Angela  Merkel  investment  banking  systemic  risk  systemicrisk  systemrelevant  systemrelevanz  European  Bank  Supervision  stresstest  contagion  repo  trust  sovereign  debt  crisis  PIGS  Greece  Brexit  non-performing  loan  zombie  banks  zombie  austerity  secular  stagnation  recession  ECB  MarioDraghi  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  hunt  for  yield  asset  allocation  distortion  OMT  LTRO  Basel  III  Basel3  leverage  banking  union  Bank  Oversight  banking  crisis  banking  system  interbank  lending  overnight  deposit  facility 
july 2016 by asterisk2a
Brexit und Italien-Krise: Euro-Gruppen-Chef schließt neue Bankenrettung aus
[ EXPOSURE TO ITALY BANKS ] Euro-Gruppen-Chef Jeroen Dijsselbloem lehnt ein neues Bankenrettungsprogramm ab. "Die Probleme müssen in den Banken geregelt werden", sagte der Niederländer beim Treffen der Eurofinanzminister am Montag in Brüssel. Die Einfachheit, mit der einige Banker mehr öffentliche Gelder forderten, um ihre Probleme zu lösen, sei problematisch. "Das muss ein Ende haben." // http://www.welt.de/finanzen/article156924408/Deutsche-Bank-Chefoekonom-fordert-150-Milliarden.html - Der Kursrückgang bei Bankaktien sei nur das Symptom eines viel größeren Problems, nämlich einer fatalen Kombination aus schwachem Wachstum, hohen Staatsschulden und einer Nähe zur gefährlichen Deflation.
contagion  European  integration  banking  union  Wolfgang  Schäuble  Italy  Germany  repo  Brexit  secular  stagnation  austerity  ECB  European  bank  bailout  systemic  risk  systemicrisk  systemrelevant  systemrelevanz  European  Supervision  reflate  reflation  bank  restructuring  Oversight  MarioDraghi  Mark  Carney  trust  interbank  lending  interbank  market  overnight  deposit  facility  deflation  deflationary  sovereign  debt  crisis  PIGS  Greece  Angela  Merkel  UK  economic  history 
july 2016 by asterisk2a
Geographies of Austerity: Mark Blyth
EU bank bailout (incl Britain) = 40% of EU GDP (incl Britain) = 5 trillion Euros. AUSTERITY FOR WHOM?! // secular stagnation - ZIRP, NIRP, QE, austerity, liquidity trap, aggregate demand short-fall = creditors paradise. their debt will not be inflated away. deflation - deflationary environment. for the next 2-3 decades. = NO DRIVE TO INVEST IN PRODUCTIVE ASSETS! = productivity gap. [...] rentier paradise. [...] = interest formation (those who have, call the shots, status quo). [...] deflationary spiral (PIGS & Germany) exporting deflation ... getting more competitive [EU has 2015 a current account surplus, bought my USA] = Dr Wolfgang Schaeuble. [...] Fall of Centrists, rise of the SNP & UKIP (reactionary) ... Trump. [...] as investment rate (ie SME/SMB lending) stays same, does not grow = DEAD. Eurobonds/Investment Fund(UK, 5bn 5 years). [...] min 55 - deflationary politics (policy for 1-10-20% of society) is one way train. DEATH. especially w austerity and low wages/secular stagnation.
austerity  Tories  Conservative  Party  nasty  general  election  2010  general  election  2015  George  Osborne  Iain  Duncan  Smith  David  Cameron  Ed  Miliband  economic  history  Mark  Blyth  book  Richard  Koo  welfare  state  welfare  reform  bank  bailout  GFC  recovery  secular  stagnation  IMF  ChristineLagarde  Salami  Tactics  aggregate  demand  aggregate  demand  short-fall  liquidity  trap  fiscal  policy  Confidence  Fairy  monetary  policy  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  Tony  Blair  Gordon  Brown  European  Union  Euro  ECB  BOJ  PIGS  Pact  Schuldenbremse  Wolfgang  Schäuble  Angela  Merkel  Career  Politicians  politician  zombie  bank  zombie  banks  banking  systemic  risk  OMT  LTRO  MarioDraghi  trichet  BOE  deflation  deflationary  productivity  productivity  gap  productive  investment  underinvestment  infrastructure  investment  infrastructure  rentier  rent-seeking  Mark  Carney  Donald  Trump  business  consumer  TLTRO  non-performing  loan  NPL  Jens  Weidmann 
july 2016 by asterisk2a
Mark Blyth explains the U.K.'s decision to leave the E.U. - YouTube
Yanis Varoufakis & Mark Blyth - https://youtu.be/iMk6aVsl8Rs - Scotland (joining the EU) will not have a welfare state as long as Wolfgang Schaeuble is at the helm), Secular Stagnation = feels like permanent recession. especially w austerity. squeezed middle class, working poor, Precariat. [...] the only thing that is keeping things alive and somewhat steady is monetary policy (ZIRP, NIRP, QE) & triple-lock pensions (ie in UK). [...] Status Quo is extend and pretend (ie in EU) [...] Centrists lost the plot, all under 50% of vote share. some places just 25% (ie Tories 2015). [...] [min 20 #Brexit] [...] EU and ASIA running trade surplus against the world. "be more competitive" = exporting deflation. is not same as productivity. [...] Q&A session: you can not reform a country (structural reforms) under dark cloud of debt deflation. no shared dream of prosperity. //&! youtu.be/md6_WfF9Ky0?t=22m
Nigel  Farage  Brexit  deflation  deflationary  IMF  Richard  Koo  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  monetary  policy  fiscal  policy  secular  stagnation  Donald  Trump  western  world  ECB  Yanis  Varoufakis  democracy  Mark  Blyth  Brexit  No  Representation  Career  Politicians  politician  1%  10%  GFC  austerity  bank  bailout  corporate  welfare  George  Osborne  David  Cameron  squeezed  middle  class  working  poor  Westminster  Whitehall  nasty  party  Centrist  Tony  Blair  Gordon  Brown  Jeremy  Corbyn  Tories  Conservative  Angela  Merkel  Wolfgang  Schäuble  European  Union  PIGS  economic  history  globalisation  globalization  AI  Robotics  Robots  autonomous  car  autonomous  cars  self-driving  cars  augmented  intelligence  automation  Precariat  populism  Polarisation  demagogue  demagogy  Nigel  Farage  Front  National  AfD  Fear  mongering  immigration  Nationalism  Nationalismus  Privatisation  UK  Germany  France  far-right  right-wing  UKIP  recovery  Refugee  Crisis 
july 2016 by asterisk2a
Bundesbank head Jens Weidmann - Brexit is no excuse to loosen EU budget rules
Reuters report that this puts Weidmann at odds with German Economy Minister Sigmar Gabriel, who has called for Europe's "Stability and Growth Pact" to be boosted for more growth.
-
So, we've got a politician wanting to spend more.
And the head of the Buba saying "No!"

Same old :-D //&! http://news.forexlive.com/!/germany-will-stick-to-balanced-budget-report-20160701
lost  decade  Brexit  fiscal  stimulus  fiscal  policy  BuBa  Bundesbank  ECB  MarioDraghi  trichet  Angela  Merkel  austerity  budget  deficit  Germany  Pact  Schuldenbremse  Wolfgang  Schäuble  liquidity  trap  Mark  Blyth  economic  history  inflation  targeting  inflation  expectation  inflation  expectations  recovery  Jens  Weidmann  monetary  policy  global  economy  Schwarze  Null  Exportweltmeister  Beton  Gold  Betongold  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  distortion  Richard  Koo  European  Union  zombie  bank  zombie  banks  NPL  PIGS  non-performing  loan  underinvestment 
july 2016 by asterisk2a
Alan Greenspan on Brexit, U.S. Economy, and Inflation (Full Interview) - YouTube
UK out of Euro Currency but part of free trade single market was best option on table. // lack of leadership for political union and fiscal union aka ever closer union. not just currency and trade union (free trade). // GET AT THE ROOT ISSUE; productivity, ageing population (entitlement crisis), stagnant wages, secular stagnation = desperate population // European banks some still burdened by sov debt crisis/NPL (= zombie banks) & NIRP & QE & lack of uptake in business & consumer loans. // no back-up to the ECB (balance sheet) yet. what happens if the EURO stops being a hard currency? get Greece out, is a liability. // EU can not go on in Status Quo indefinitely. ie funding southern states. States have to get on course of economic harmony! everyone has to give up something! // Precariat/Squeezed Middle Class/Social Mobility = creates desperate people. // Entitlements are a legal issues. Productivity and Growth Rates can't fund entitlements. = There will be a crisis. // Career Politicians won't touch it. // History (look at M2) this environment ends up in inflation. not time or data.
European  Union  Brexit  fiscal  Political  Union  ECB  Alan  Greenspan  Fed  Yanis  Varoufakis  Janet  Yellen  PIGS  sovereign  debt  crisis  secular  stagnation  productivity  gap  disposable  income  discretionary  spending  ageing  population  current  account  deficit  budget  deficit  GFC  entitlement  spending  Abenomics  monetary  policy  fiscal  policy  pension  obligation  babyboomers  Baby  Boomers  immigration  NIRP  ZIRP  QE  economic  history  Germany  Angela  Merkel  BOE  Mark  Carney  rising  middleclass  squeezed  middle  class  working  poor  Precariat  populism  demagogue  demagogy  Donald  Trump  western  world  savings  rate  Gini  coefficient  social  mobility  income  mobility  triple-lock  pension  pension  fund  pension  scheme  democracy  Career  Politicians  politician  output  gap  M2  inflation  targeting  M3  commodity  prices  global  economy 
june 2016 by asterisk2a
Chris Grayling dimisses concerns over economic impact of a Brexit
Yvette Cooper: Brexit won't prevent EU free movement to the UK - LIKE NORWAY CASE! - youtu.be/qa--kXGNhiE //&! IMF downgrade UK over Brexit fears - youtu.be/gfmVP3_TXNk - calling for fiscal stimulus!
Brexit  Chris  Grayling  Yvette  Cooper  liquidity  trap  secular  stagnation  fiscal  stimulus  IMF  OECD  austerity  2016  global  economy  China  credit  bubble  monetary  stimulus  aggregate  demand  aggregate  demand  short-fall  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  British  Pound  Sterling  Pact  Schuldenbremse  demographic  bubble  ageing  population  economic  history  recovery  sovereign  debt  crisis  PIGS  ChristineLagarde  George  Osborne  monetary  policy  Mark  Carney  BOE  ECB  MarioDraghi 
april 2016 by asterisk2a
Investigating Deutsche Bank’s €21 Trillion Derivative Casino In Wake Of Admission It Rigged Gold And Silver
Deutsche Bank has over €515 billion in “positive derivative values” in comparison to €496 billion in “negative derivative values”.
Deutsche  Bank  investment  banking  derivatives  Financial  Stability  Board  European  Bank  Supervision  ECB  too  big  to  fail  too  big  to  bail  TBTF  OTC  Greed 
april 2016 by asterisk2a
What Happens Next (In Europe)?
the odds of another crisis are higher than a rally to fresh records. [...]
“The 2009-2015 rally originated from two main drivers: a massive stimulus, and credit expansion in China,” said Goette, who’s a partner at his firm in Zug, Switzerland and helps oversee 1 billion Swiss francs ($1 billion).

“European earnings have not followed suit so far. Skepticism regarding central-bank operations has started to emerge.”
ECB  Brussels  recovery  reflate  reflation  China  credit  bubble  Germany  PIGS  zombie  banks  European  Bank  Supervision  European  Economic  Area  European  Election  2014  working  poor  squeezed  middle  class  Soziale  Marktwirtschaft  MarioDraghi  OMT  LTRO  monetary  policy  monetary  stimulus  Fiscal  Pact  Schuldenbremse  sovereign  debt  crisis  France  Brexit  Grexit  Angela  Merkel  Wolfgang  Schäuble  history  underinvestment  Richard  Koo  Yanis  Varoufakis  liquidity  trap  zombie  corporations  youth  unemployment  demographic  bubble  OAP  discretionary  spending  disposable  income  liberal  reform  Precariat  precarious  employment  low  pay  low  income  Minijob  Zeitarbeit  Leiharbeit  1  Euro  Job  Structural  Impediments  imbalance  unemployment  monetary  transmission  mechanism  monetary  union  union  Rechtsruck  Bundesbank  fault  lines  shareholder  capitalism  bailout  GFC  2016  PBOC  Exportweltmeister  zombie  Financial  Stability  Board  crony  capitalism  Deutsche  Bank  infrastructure  investment  competitiveness  Beton  Gold  Betongold  asset  allocation  Super  Rich  1%  oligarchy  plutocracy  democracy  tax  evasion  tax  avoidance  Wall  Street  shareholder  value  profit  maximisation  profit  maximization  Russia  Crimea  Ukraine  U 
april 2016 by asterisk2a
Yanis Varoufakis: »MONEY AND POWER«, Public Lecture 2015-11-04
3rd bailout loan $0 went to Greece. All to pay off banks. extend & pretend. 1st: ~90% went to the banks. [...] ESM does not exist [...] banking union plan not progressing at all. //&! Yanis Varoufakis @Oxford Union - youtu.be/zWB6lY2GBjQ - ACADEMIA LACKS ANTI-ESTABLISHMENT ATTITUDE! Because going against the grain has become anti-reputation. [...] it's all about expectations, predictions about where S&P500 will be in 12 months. [...] regression between theory and reality. economists have never been humble. [ see Wall Street cottage factory of analysis and prediction shops ] [...] if you torture the data and model enough it will confess. [< EU monetary union based on theory ] [...] [34:00] Brussels is technically incompetent and will not reform itself. I am a libertarian marxist. Schumpeter. true creative destruction. great wealth currently created - all going to 1%. = not humanitarian. not democratic. [...] 41:00 Q&A, <48:50> gov budget not same as household budget; George Osborne.
bank  crisis  banking  crisis  European  Election  2014  sovereign  debt  crisis  austerity  Grexit  Yanis  Varoufakis  Tsipras  Syriza  Brussels  Wolfgang  Schäuble  Angela  Merkel  GFC  Great  Depression  credit  crisis  credit  creation  Super  Cycle  debt  overhang  liquidity  trap  ECB  Troika  MarioDraghi  economic  history  Richard  Koo  leverage  recovery  deflation  deflationary  Fiscal  Pact  Schuldenbremse  Germany  underinvestment  Super  Rich  reflate  reflation  Generationengerechtigkeit  1%  oligarchy  plutocracy  No  Representation  Career  Politicians  balance  sheet  recession  Euro  Gold  Standard  ESM  IMF  OECD  banking  union  EEA  Economics  Academia  Academics  Economists  Scholars  Soziale  Marktwirtschaft  income  distribution  inequality  Gini  coefficient  Gesellschaft  society  Yanis  Varoufakis  financial  crisis  economic  model  econometrics  social  theory  monetary  union  Chicago  School  poverty  economic  history  austerity  George  Osborne  David  Cameron  UK  nasty  party  Richard  Koo  macroeconomics  macroeconomic  policy  macroprudential  policy  aggregate  demand  Capital  Expenditure  income  tax  receipts  deflation  deflationary  Universal  Basic  class  warfare 
april 2016 by asterisk2a
Yanis Varoufakis Candid Interview - Shocking Disfunction and The Power Of Oligarchs
Europe will not survive next crisis. [...] end of interview - China looked after the rest of the world and especially Germany after 2009 (credit bubble) as USA looked after Germany in the 50's - Wirtschaftswunder. Now China is trying its best not to implode and fall below 5% of growth per annum. And now USA is trying to contest Asia (excluding China) economically and militarily through TPP and military increase in that region. //&! Yanis Varoufakis - Guardian Live - youtu.be/md6_WfF9Ky0
Grexit  Troika  IMF  oligarchy  plutocracy  Greece  corruption  bribery  Yanis  Varoufakis  Tsipras  referendum  Wolfgang  Schäuble  Angela  Merkel  Brussels  European  Union  Gold  Standard  economic  history  liberal  economic  reform  antitrust  cartel  tax  evasion  tax  avoidance  Schwarzgeld  Schwarze  Kassen  Schwarzkasse  ChristineLagarde  Panama  Papers  revolving  door  lobby  No  Representation  Career  Politicians  trust  far-right  right-wing  sovereign  debt  crisis  ECB  MarioDraghi  banking  crisis  bank  bailout  GFC  democracy  neoliberal  neoliberalism  shareholder  capitalism  crony  capitalism  Chicago  School  China  credit  bubble  BRIC  USA  Hegemony  TTIP  TPP  geopolitics 
april 2016 by asterisk2a
ECB reveals surprise stimulus moves - BBC News
[C]ut its main interest rate from 0.05% to 0% as part of a package of measures intended to revive the eurozone economy.
The bank will also expand its quantitative easing programme from €60bn to €80bn a month.
The ECB also decided to further cut its bank deposit rate, from minus 0.3% to minus 0.4%.
The measures, including the decision to cut the main interest rate, were more radical than investors had expected. John Hardy, head of currency strategy at Saxo Bank, said: "This was a much bigger bazooka than the market was expecting and shows the ECB trying to get ahead of the confidence curve after learning its lesson in December."
The stimulus measures announced three months ago have largely failed to drive economic growth higher or boost inflation. //&! bit.ly/1TP0XJJ - Volles Risiko &! bit.ly/1P8hncF &! bit.ly/1RCF3Tp &! Market Reaction - bit.ly/1LeOrjo &! bit.ly/1RTBJ95 - no investment bc aggregate demand not rising //&! bbc.in/225Eexl
ECB  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  OMT  inflation  targeting  LTRO  TLTRO  deflation  secular  stagnation  deflationary  Oil  price  commodity  prices  squeezed  middle  class  demographic  bubble  zombie  banks  global  economy  Richard  Koo  liquidity-trap  liquidity  trap  underinvestment  aggregate  demand  distortion 
march 2016 by asterisk2a
Ex-MPC member says rates will stay low until 2021 - BBC News
Blanchflower: Global economy "feels a little bit like 2008" Interest rates will likely fall further in Britain and remain at near record low levels until 2021, [...] Blanchflower described the backdrop to the committee's decision in March 2009 to cut rates to 0.5% as catastrophic. He said the MPC at the time had wished to avoid a death spiral. Britain was plunged into its deepest-ever recession in 2008 as confidence in banks collapsed and investment dried up. "We cut rates in November 2008 by 150 basis points (1.5%). It was clear that we should have cut by more but didn't because of the panic that it might have caused," he said. "It was absolutely clear that this (the financial crisis) was something we had not seen in a generation. We learned that the scale of the shock was enormous." [...] mortgage rates are 31% lower than before the crisis, while savers may have lost £106bn due to record low rates. //&! bbc.in/1YeqV87 &! bbc.in/1LGOxAf - central banks understated deflation pressure!
ZIRP  NIRP  QE  BOE  UK  global  economy  recovery  aggregate  demand  property  bubble  underinvestment  austerity  George  Osborne  speculative  bubbles  speculative  speculation  mortgage  market  macroprudential  policy  Mark  Carney  Help  to  Buy  Scheme  Help  to  Save  Right  to  Buy  Buy-to-Let  subprime  car  loan  credit  card  debt  zombie  consumer  zombie  corporations  zombie  banks  Richard  Koo  liquidity  trap  secular  stagnation  economic  history  GFC  household  debt  private  debt  consumer  debt  David  Blanchflower  Danny  Blanchflower  financial  repression  hunt  for  yield  asset  allocation  distortion  Super  Cycle  junk  bond  Gini  coefficient  deflationary  deflation  Taper  QT  monetary  policy  fiscal  policy  Pact  Schuldenbremse  BIS  ECB  Fed  BOJ  credit  bubble  PBOC  hot-money 
march 2016 by asterisk2a
Central bankers on the defensive as weird policy becomes even weirder | Business | The Guardian
Growth is tepid, productivity is poor, and inflation is too low: all is not going according to policymakers’ masterplans [...] As far as the OECD is concerned, monetary policy is being forced to take too much of the strain. Its chief economist Catherine Mann made the point that lasting recovery required three things: stimulative monetary policy; activist fiscal policy; and structural reform. The OECD wants the second of these ingredients to be added to the recipe in the form of increased spending on public infrastructure, something it says would more than pay for itself at a time when governments can borrow so cheaply.
monetary  policy  G20  fiscal  policy  monetary  stimulus  monetary  system  monetary  transmission  mechanism  liquidity  trap  UK  western  world  USA  Japan  Abenomics  George  Osborne  Angela  Merkel  Wolfgang  Schäuble  Pact  Schuldenbremse  economic  history  recovery  secular  stagnation  productivity  underinvestment  MarioDraghi  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  ECB  BOE  Fed  Taper  deflationary  deflation  nominal  GDP  targeting  inflation  targeting  zombie  banks  MervynKing  zombie  corporations  zombie  consumer  Richard  Koo  Gini  coefficient  inequality  squeezed  middle  class  wage  stagnation  discretionary  spending  distortion  property  bubble  disposable  income  productive  investment  austerity  business  confidence  foreign  direct  investment  consumer  debt  household  debt  credit  card  debt  car  loan  student  loan  debt  student  loan  policy  folly  policy  error  short-termism  Career  Politicians  neoliberalism  neoliberal  trickle-down  economics  self-regulation  City  of  London  investment  banking  retail  banking  OECD  IMF  KennethRogoff  hot-money  hunt  for  yield  asset  bubble  asset  allocation  speculative  bubbles  speculative  speculation  reflate  reflation  financial  repression  New  Normal  trust 
march 2016 by asterisk2a
Energy price slump sends eurozone into deflation - BBC News
Energy drove the decline, with prices down 8% in February compared to a 5.4% slide in January. The dismal figures have dashed hopes that ECB efforts to boost prices were working. That raises the chance of the bank announcing further stimulus measures next month. It has already announced a cut to its bank deposit rate, which remains in negative territory. ECB chief Mario Draghi insisted earlier this month the policies were working. [...] The Group of 20 (G20) finance ministers and central bankers agreed on Saturday to use "all policy tools, monetary, fiscal and structural - individually and collectively" to renew growth. //&! Eurozone economy grows 1.5% in 2015 - 12 February 2016 &! Eurozone growth forecast cut to 1.7% - 4 February 2016
Europe  European  Union  deflationary  deflation  Fiscal  Pact  zombie  banks  liquidity  trap  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  ECB  MarioDraghi  monetary  policy  Richard  Koo  Angela  Merkel  Wolfgang  Schäuble  monetary  transmission  mechanism  Schuldenbremse  austerity  2016  economic  history  recovery  secular  stagnation  demographic  bubble  ageing  population  babyboomers  Germany  policy  OMT  TLTRO  LTRO  George  Osborne  G20  UK  sovereign  debt  crisis  PIGS  Japan  Abenomics  BOJ  BOE  Mark  Carney 
march 2016 by asterisk2a
Mervyn King: new financial crisis is 'certain' without reform of banks | Business | The Guardian
The former Bank of England governor says in his new book that imbalances in the global economy makes a crash inevitable [...] GFC was the fault of the financial system, not individual greedy bankers, in his new book, The End Of Alchemy: Money, Banking And The Future Of The Global Economy [...] “Without reform of the financial system, another crisis is certain, and the failure ... to tackle the disequilibrium in the world economy makes it likely that it will come sooner rather than later,” Lord King wrote. [...] global central banks were caught in a “prisoner’s dilemma” - unable to raise interest rates for fear of stifling the economic recovery, the newspaper reported. [... blame] broken financial system. [...] failure of a system, and the ideas that underpinned it, [...] “Only a fundamental rethink of how we, as a society, organise our system of money and banking will prevent a repetition //&! dailym.ai/21tPG5y
bank  crisis  banking  crisis  investment  banking  self-regulation  retail  banking  Greed  financial  product  regulation  regulators  City  of  London  George  Osborne  Mark  Carney  macroprudential  policy  property  bubble  austerity  liquidity  trap  secular  stagnation  job  creation  Service  Sector  Jobs  economic  history  GFC  neoliberalism  neoliberal  trickle-down  economics  free  market  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  faultlines  hot-money  hunt  for  yield  distortion  financial  repression  emerging  middle  class  emerging  market  Frontier  Markets  BRIC  China  Brazil  credit  bubble  2016  reflate  reflation  junk  bond  revolving  debt  household  debt  mortgage  market  consumer  debt  UK  IMF  OECD  credit  card  debt  car  loan  BOE  MervynKing  ECB  Fed  Europe  deflationary  deflation  Gini  coefficient  inequality  MarioDraghi  Taper  QT  bonuses  bonus  global  imbalances  structural  imbalance  Career  Politicians  lobbyist  lobby  Lobbying  revolving  door  New  Normal  speculative  bubbles  Richard  Koo  Fiscal  Pact  Schuldenbremse 
february 2016 by asterisk2a
Tasting menu: Audio highlights from the February 20th 2016 edition by The Economist
"liberal centrist politicians are not up to the job" always claiming the confidence fairy will show up if they stop what they are doing! "faith in monetary policy is wavering" ... emerging market debt bubble (through hunt for yield, QE, ZIRP, NIRP, credit bubble originating from China) is unwinding and threatening global system stability.
aggregate  demand  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  China  ECB  BOJ  Abenomics  Taper  QT  Fed  distortion  hot-money  austerity  Richard  Koo  Fiscal  Pact  Schuldenbremse  George  Osborne  secular  stagnation  western  world  Wolfgang  Schäuble  Angela  Merkel  European  Union  Mark  Carney  BOE  property  bubble  policy  monetary  policy  economic  history  Gini  coefficient  inequality  tax  evasion  tax  avoidance  underinvestment  productivity  output  gap  lost  decade  lost  generation  Generationengerechtigkeit  bank  bailout  fairness  recovery  unintended  consequences 
february 2016 by asterisk2a
Migrant crisis: Germany's 'rock of stability' in danger - BBC News
[ has to invest massively to integrate people and not put them aside on Hartz-IV. leeway to borrow money for nothing is there. political will to break the dogma and ideology of austerity, schwarze null, schuldenbremse has to be there. across europe! ] The migrant crisis could see Germany losing its position as a "rock of stability", a former European Central Bank chief economist has told BBC HARDtalk. Otmar Issing warned the growing "fiscal burden" over the numbers of people arriving could completely change the country's economy.
refugee  crisis  migration  immigration  economic  refugee  Asylbewerber  Asylum  Sozialpolitik  Integrationspolitik  Schuldenbremse  Fiscal  Pact  education  policy  underinvestment  budget  deficit  hartz-iv  ALG2  Aufstocker  Fachkräftemangel  Ausländerfeindlichkeit  Xenophobia  racism  Rechtsextremismus  Rechtsruck  Angela  Merkel  Wolfgang  Schäuble  labour  economics  labour  market  labour  laws  minimum  wage  Niall  Ferguson  youth  unemployment  competitiveness  competitive  Germany  STEM  industrial  policy  European  Union  Bundesbank  ECB  public  sentiment  public  awareness  war  refugee  Afghanistan  Irak  Iraq  Syrien  Syria 
february 2016 by asterisk2a
What Really Caused the Crisis and What to Do About It - YouTube
"There are not perfect markets, and there is no perfect planner. [...] we will never arrive at perfect solutions. [...] market will never allocate perfectly ... [...] market will always tend to lend to property and land, and less into productive means (businesses = risk of 100 loss, land or property ... you have a loss when you sell it. << China, UK ) [...] not all credit is good credit. [...] need for macroprudential policy to dampen bubbles bc rate hikes could dampen normal non-speculative area of economy. ie loan to value limits [...] interest rate setting is blunt hammer that people though is the magic wand along the line of self-regulation, free market, neoliberalism and trickle-down [...] GFC can be traced back to the 60-70's - macroecon + micro with absurd assumptions (ie rational expectations, equilibriums, no bubbles) & math & pure theoretical base (no empirical analysis ie of what banks really do ie greed) = makes job of economist as policy advisor real easy.
bank  crisis  JohnMaynardKeynes  keynes  Keynesianism  book  Richard  Koo  aggregate  demand  austerity  liquidity  trap  deleveraging  balance  sheet  recession  debtoverhang  GFC  recovery  secular  stagnation  western  world  dogma  ideology  underinvestment  productive  investment  infrastructure  investment  monetary  policy  monetary  theory  trickle-down  economics  neoliberalism  neoliberal  budget  deficit  economic  history  credit  bubble  output  gap  productivity  inflation  targeting  nominal  GDP  targeting  asset  allocation  economics  investment  banking  zombie  banks  retail  banking  financial  product  CDS  CDO  hunt  for  yield  VAR  risk  aversion  deflationary  deflation  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  debt  monetisation  debt  monetization  Glass-Steagall  self-regulation  regulators  regulation  leverage  margin  trading  property  bubble  arbitrage  speculative  bubbles  asset  bubble  UK  USA  Europe  ECB  Fed  BOE  zombie  consumer  squeezed  middle  class  zombie  corporations  NPL  junk  bond  realestate  macroprudential  policy  mortgage  market  equilibrium  disequilibrium  Economist  economists  Adair  Turner  hayek 
february 2016 by asterisk2a
Vickers warns over weaker bank safety buffers - BBC News
[ no skin in the game ] The man charged with leading an inquiry into the future safety of Britain's banks has said Bank of England plans are not strong enough. Sir John Vickers, who led the Independent Commission on Banking (ICB) said: "The Bank of England proposal is less strong than what the ICB recommended." In a BBC interview, he added "I don't think the ICB overdid it." The Bank of England declined to comment. Specifically, it is the plans to make sure that banks have enough capital that Sir John has questioned. Capital is considered vital to a bank's safety, as it serves to protect it from sudden losses. It comes in many forms, but the most common is funding from shareholders, who expect a hefty return on the risk they are taking. The backdrop to this news is the current slump in bank share prices across Europe. Since the start of the year, European banking stocks have lost a quarter of their value. //&! bit.ly/1Xs0Bac
zombie  banks  retail  banking  investment  banking  toobigtofail  too  big  to  jail  TBTF  too  big  to  bail  economic  history  lobbyist  lobby  Lobbying  GFC  speculation  CDS  CDO  derivatives  Interestrateswap  financial  product  VAR  risk-management  risk  management  Greed  bonuses  bonus  financial  crisis  blackswan  Black  Swan  Career  Politicians  No  Representation  democracy  Super  Rich  1%  plutocracy  oligarchy  Wall  Street  shareholder  value  profit  maximisation  short-termism  self-regulation  regulation  deregulation  regulators  Glass-Steagall  BOE  ECB  Bundesbank  sovereign  debt  crisis  Fed 
february 2016 by asterisk2a
From Ticker - S&P: QE is driving inequality between the generations
Quantitative easing (QE) stabilized the economy but also exacerbated wealth disparity between rich and poor, mainly by boosting financial asset prices and house prices. //&! [ LOW PAY MINIMUM WAGE JOB CREATION ] During the U.K.’s recent “jobs-rich, pay-poor” economic recovery, strong employment gains were accompanied by a further rise of already high wage dispersion and an ever-growing share of part-time employment in lower income groups. //&! In the context of the tight housing market, low interest rates and QE are among the drivers behind the widening wealth and income gap between younger and older generations and between those on the housing ladder and those not on it. //&! Inequality is damaging! // bit.ly/1QtauyZ - Bank of England's recovery policies have increased inequality, finds S&P [...] spending too much on rent, not able to save for deposit! //&! bit.ly/1PPyEYl &! ti.me/1sbBtrz
QE  inequality  reflate  reflation  distortion  recovery  job  creation  Service  Sector  Jobs  UK  USA  fiscal  policy  monetary  policy  monetary  stimulus  unconventional  monetary  policy  Fed  BOE  bank  bailout  zombie  banks  zombie  consumer  zombie  corporations  ZIRP  NIRP  TARP  TLTRO  LTRO  ECB  equity  bubble  asset  bubble  property  bubble  Housing  Crisis  Help  to  Buy  Scheme  Help  to  Save  Right  to  Buy  income  inequality  Gini  coefficient  social  mobility  income  mobility  budget  deficit  austerity  George  Osborne  income  distribution  poverty  trap  tax  credit  low  pay  low  income  squeezed  middle  class  Precariat  Zero  Hour  Contract  Contractor  part-time  Tories  nasty  party  homeless  homelessness  social  affordable  Conservative  Toff  Privileged  Establishment  Funding  discretionary  spending  disposable  income  household  debt  consumer  debt  credit  card  debt  student  loan  debt  student  loan  student  debt  debt  servitude  economic  history 
february 2016 by asterisk2a
'Panic situation': Asian stocks tumble amid fears of new global recession | Business | The Guardian
central banks have few avenues left to explore to encourage investment and boost growth. Talk of an impending recession in the US, however, is creating speculation among investors that the federal reserve will put on hold its attempts to normalise rates. “The ‘fear factor’ in markets has morphed from being about an emerging market hard-landing and collapsing oil prices to being about the extent of the slowdown in the developed world and the ability of central banks to reflate asset values yet again,” said analysts at Citi in a note. //&! Yield on Japan's 10-year bonds falls below zero - bit.ly/1Leu3JC - Germany, France and the Netherlands are among the countries to see their bonds soar in value, though Switzerland (not in the G7) is the only other country to see demand outstrip supply to such an extent that the yield has dropped below zero. Bonds worth about $7tn (£4.8tn) now have a negative yield rate. //&! BOE Taper expectations go out the window till 2020 - bit.ly/1SdxUhN
global  economy  2016  secular  stagnation  austerity  monetary  policy  fiscal  policy  Taper  ZIRP  QE  NIRP  liquidity  trap  western  world  credit  bubble  China  BRIC  Oil  price  emerging  middle  class  squeezed  middle  class  household  debt  consumer  debt  debtoverhang  deleveraging  balance  sheet  recession  Richard  Koo  USA  UK  Europe  economic  history  credit  card  debt  car  loan  debt  servitude  disposable  income  discretionary  spending  credit  reflate  reflation  VIX  volatility  speculative  bubbles  property  bubble  distortion  asset  allocation  equity  bubble  hunt  for  yield  IMF  OECD  Frontier  Markets  emerging  market  bond  bubble  Fed  BOE  ECB  Abenomics  BOJ 
february 2016 by asterisk2a
Adam Posen: What Japan and the UK Demonstrate about Macroeconomic Stimulus - YouTube
Confidence Fairy - Paul Krugman. (sov debt crisis) only applicable if you don't have a central bank. like Greece. that can do QE as much as you need to stabilise monetary system. ie stop deleveraging, only serving debt. meaning deflation. // different QE, diversity. shift risk appetite to more riskier debt. ... // fiscal activism can't overcome austerity ... // UK has it work because it doesn't have the manufacturing base. but its population is growing, not shrinking. but job creation - multiplier to economy is 1 or lower because of mostly service sector job creation which lot need to access welfare state through tax credits. // min 11. Gordon Brown and Alistair Darling did lots right! GPB depreciation. budget deficit growth. But imports stayed high!!! current account deficit and trade deficit. Austerity undermines growth and BOE policy! cut you future and investment (4-1 ration). UK got no credibility bonus from bond vigilantes, no FDI inflows.
Abenomics  economic  history  secular  stagnation  UK  austerity  Japan  BOE  BOJ  Mark  Carney  deflationary  deflation  demographic  bubble  ageing  population  migration  immigration  Sozialpolitik  Integrationspolitik  Paul  Krugman  JGB  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  liquidity  trap  balance  sheet  recession  Richard  Koo  deleveraging  ECB  TLTRO  LTRO  debt  monetisation  debt  monetization  monetary  policy  monetary  transmission  mechanism  monetary  stimulus  monetary  theory  unconventional  monetary  policy  monetary  system  financial  repression  distortion  speculative  bubbles  creditrating  creditrisk  junk  bond  NPL  credit  bubble  recovery  George  Osborne  Fiscal  Pact  Schuldenbremse  Super  Cycle  sovereign  debt  crisis  debtoverhang  currency-war  currency  debasement  currency  war  current  account  deficit  trade  deficit  IMF  OBR  foreign  direct  investment  Conservative  Party  nasty  fairness  Generationengerechtigkeit  policy  folly  policy  error 
january 2016 by asterisk2a
Bank of Japan shocks markets by adopting negative interest rates | World news | The Guardian
BOJ shock decision to adopt negative interest rates, in an attempt to protect the flagging economy from market volatility and fears over the global economy. In a 5-4 vote, the bank’s board imposed a 0.1% fee on deposits left with the Bank of Japan (BoJ) – in effect a negative interest rate. The move, which follows the similarly aggressive precedent set by the ECB in June 2014, is designed to encourage commercial banks to use excess reserves they keep with the central bank to lend to businesses. //&! The Disturbing Reasons Why The Bank Of Japan Stunned Everyone With Negative Rates - bit.ly/1UvpOyO - encouraging capex, supporting existing bubbles ie equity and bonds (joining draghi). Citing examples of Sweden and Switzerland with NIRP. And ECB of combining QE and NIRP. Combating China exporting deflation. And keep the pace of JGB purchases, keeping the bubble floating. [A] "last-ditch measure"[.] [I]t may be time to panic. - 2016/2017 //&! Currency War - bit.ly/1QwOGox
ECB  BOJ  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  debt  monetisation  debt  monetization  monetary  policy  monetary  transmission  mechanism  monetary  theory  unconventional  monetary  policy  monetary  stimulus  monetary  system  deposit  levy  MarioDraghi  Abenomics  economic  history  deleveraging  debtoverhang  balance  sheet  recession  GFC  recovery  Yen  Euro  credit  bubble  liquidity  trap  distortion  asset  bubble  asset  allocation  equity  bubble  speculative  bubbles  bond  bubble  property  bubble  debt  bubble  New  Normal  financial  repression  faultlines  global  economy  structural  imbalance  global  imbalances  demographic  bubble  ageing  population  Japan  UK  secular  stagnation  western  world  inflation  expectation  inflation  targeting  nominal  GDP  targeting  deflation  Sweden  Switzerland  China  Yuan  JGB  2016  USA  Europe  sovereign  debt  crisis  austerity  business  confidence  consumer  confidence  Super  Cycle  recession  currency-war  currency  debasement  currency  war 
january 2016 by asterisk2a
Weltwirtschaftsforum in Davos: Die Welt bangt um Europa - SPIEGEL ONLINE
Wie steht es um Europa? Schlimm, wenn man der Stimmung beim Weltwirtschaftsforum in Davos glaubt. In den Augen vieler droht der Kontinent auseinanderzudriften. Die letzte Hoffnung ruht auf Angela Merkel. [...] Schäubles Andeutung wird zum "Marshall-Plan" Wie groß die Erwartungen sind, die auf Deutschland ruhen, zeigen auch die Reaktionen auf den Vorstoß von Finanzminister Schäuble, "viele Milliarden Euro" in die Nachbarländer Syriens zu investieren, um diese zu stabilisieren und zu verhindern, dass die Flüchtlinge weiter nach Europa drängen. So vage Schäubles Worte waren, so begehrlich wurden sie aufgenommen. Von einem "neuen Marshallplan" war gleich die Rede. "Ich bin begeistert von dieser Idee", jubelte sogar Milliardär Soros - ansonsten nicht unbedingt ein Freund Schäubles.
European  Union  Europe  monetary  ECB  monetary  policy  refugee  crisis  secular  stagnation  deflationary  deflation  Angela  Merkel  Wolfgang  Schäuble  fiscal  policy  Pact  Schuldenbremse  Germany  faultlines  global  imbalances  PIGS  sovereign  debt  crisis  bank  bailout  GFC  recovery  structural  unemployment  economic  history  fiscal  Euro  Brexit  civil  war  ISIS  Middle  East  Iraq  Afghanistan  Libya  Lybia  National  Security  Schengen  Agreement 
january 2016 by asterisk2a
Carney: No need for interest rate rises now - BBC News
Carney said that collapsing oil prices and an "unforgiving" global environment meant that tighter monetary policy was not yet necessary. [...] He pointed out that the Fed's rate rise had only brought the US interest rate to the same "lofty level" as the Bank of England's. The Governor said that three factors would be the strongest guide to when interest rates might rise. First, that economic growth in the UK would be higher than the average trend. He said that growth at an average quarterly rate of 0.5% in 2015 had "disappointed". Second, that wage growth strengthens and productivity improves. And, third, that core inflation starts to approach the target rate of 2%. //&! Rate rise pause till early 2017? - bbc.in/1T1Qrge - [ global risks are building, global imbalances, faultlines. ] There's a frying pan - the global growth slowdown - and a fire - high levels of indebtedness - out there. &! bbc.in/1S5N7ks
Fed  BOE  2016  Taper  UK  USA  monetary  policy  Mark  Carney  Fed  mandate  productivity  output  gap  inflation  expectation  inflation  targeting  nominal  GDP  targeting  deflationary  deflation  Oil  price  commodity  prices  wage  inflation  GDP  secular  stagnation  economic  history  austerity  fiscal  policy  property  bubble  consumer  debt  household  debt  credit  card  debt  mortgage  market  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  private  debt  corporate  debt  Europe  ECB  China  credit  bubble  2015  global  economy  BRIC  OPEC  aggregate  demand  Richard  Koo  overcapacity  Supply  and  and  Supply  liquidity  trap  monetary  transmission  mechanism  monetary  stimulus  monetary  theory  unconventional  monetary  policy  debt  monetisation  debt  monetization  zombie  consumer  zombie  corporations  zombie  banks  debtoverhang  balance  sheet  recession  deleveraging  margin  trading  speculative  bubbles  equity  bubble  Super  Cycle  debt  servitude  leverage  George  Osborne  dogma  ideology  neoliberalism  neoliberal  faultlines  global  imbalances  distortion  emerging  middle  class  emerging  market  Frontier  Markets  sovereign  debt  crisis  unintended  consequences  unknown  unkown  QT  financial  repression  New  Normal 
january 2016 by asterisk2a
The Great Unraveling Looms - Blame The 'Austrians'? | Zero Hedge
Well, well: who would have believed it. First the Bank for International Settlements comes out with a paper that links credit booms to the boom-bust business cycle, then Britain's Adam Smith Institute publishes a paper by Anthony Evans that recommends the Bank of England should ditch its powers over monetary policy and move towards free banking. [...] The BIS paper will be the more influential of the two in policy circles, and this is not the first time the BIS has questioned the macroeconomic assumptions behind the actions of the major central banks. [...] Targeting nominal GDP is not a perfect answer.
credit  bubble  economic  history  BIS  GFC  QE  ZIRP  NIRP  distortion  squeezed  middle  class  secular  stagnation  working  poor  credit  card  debt  household  debt  property  bubble  consumer  debt  monetary  policy  liquidity  trap  monetary  stimulus  monetary  theory  unconventional  monetary  policy  monetary  system  China  USA  subprime  car  loan  debt  servitude  discretionary  spending  disposable  income  Student  debt  Super  Cycle  debtoverhang  sovereign  debt  crisis  debt  bubble  debt  monetisation  debt  monetization  Fed  ECB  BOE  Japan  BOJ  Abenomics  nominal  GDP  targeting  inflation  targeting  wage  growth  wage  stagnation  income  distribution  income  inequality  low  income  income  redistribution  inequality  Gini  coefficient  Super  Rich  1%  plutocracy  oligarchy  group  think  think  tank  vested  interest  interest  groups  lobbyist  lobby  Lobbying  revolving  door  Career  Politicians  No  Representation  social  democracy  democracy 
january 2016 by asterisk2a
Börse: Warum Schwellenländer für die Kurskrise sorgen - Kolumne - SPIEGEL ONLINE
Chronisch überschüssige Leistungsbilanz [ & Over capacity for less/stagnant demand ... + biggest credit bubble (china) popped as the west can't afford more. QE and ZIRP has run it's way! ] [...] Der Grund, warum der deutsche Aktienindex weitaus mehr betroffen ist als andere europäische Indizes, liegt allein an der strukturellen Abhängigkeit der deutschen Industrie von Blasen in anderen Ländern. Anstatt auf bessere Stimmung zu hoffen, sind Anleger gut beraten, sich über den weiteren Verlauf der Schwellenländerkrise Gedanken zu machen. [...] [ Fed taper makes things more difficult to serve debt ] [...] Langfristig sind es die Gewinne und nicht die Zinsen, die die Aktienpreise treiben. //&! China (Asia/BRIC/Frontier Market) Corporate Bond Yields up - bit.ly/1Sme7fV & NPL probably too. //&! If property is biggest item of household wealth in a property bubble (UK, China, ... USA) - bit.ly/1Zpiy8M
trade  deficit  BRIC  credit  bubble  western  world  secular  stagnation  macroeconomic  policy  China  Japan  Germany  UK  USA  Brazil  commodity  prices  Oil  price  NPL  shadow  banking  shadow  economy  banking  crisis  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  QT  speculative  bubbles  property  bubble  mortgage  market  Fed  BOE  ECB  European  Union  sovereign  debt  crisis  household  debt  consumer  debt  credit  card  debt  car  loan  private  debt  corporate  debt  tax  evasion  tax  avoidance  austerity  corporate  welfare  subsidies  subsidizing  Russia  OPEC  aggregate  demand  liquidity  trap  Richard  Koo  Richardkoo  debtoverhang  balance  sheet  recession  debt  servitude  student  loan  debt  Super  Cycle  debt  bubble  student  debt  debt  monetisation  debt  monetization  student  loan  discretionary  spending  disposable  income  squeezed  middle  class  precarious  work  Precariat  working  poor  neoliberalism  neoliberal  globalization  globalisation  borderless  flat  world  trade  agreement  Hegemony  TPP  TTIP  TISA  CETA  NAFTA  Africa  South  Africa  global  trade  trade  balance  current  account  deficit  Frontier  Markets  faultlines  structural  imbalance  global  imbalances  Taper  reflate  reflation  equity  bubble  Abenomics  economic  history  India  irrational  exuberance  Robert  Shiller  inequality  Gini  coefficient  deflationary 
january 2016 by asterisk2a
Italien: Bankensektor wieder tief in der Krise - SPIEGEL ONLINE
Zusammengefasst: Italiens Ministerpräsident Matteo Renzi hat zwar einige Reformen auf den Weg gebracht. Auch die Wirtschaft des Landes ist zuletzt etwas gewachsen. Doch wer genauer hinschaut, sieht: Der Eurostaat hat nach wie vor mit massiven Finanzproblemen zu kämpfen - und die Schulden des Landes steigen immer weiter.
Italy  sovereign  debt  crisis  recession  GFC  bank  crisis  banking  crisis  2016  recovery  liberal  economic  reform  bail-in  bank  bailout  banking  union  EuropeanSystemicRiskBoard  ECB  PIGS 
january 2016 by asterisk2a
Perfect Storm!? | Zero Hedge
And with debt now $57 trillion higher worldwide than in 2008, it’s not at all clear that another borrowing binge will be greeted with enthusiasm by the world’s bond markets, currency traders or entrepreneurs. [ market correction, no liquidity, stuck with position, this may be no correction, but correction back to fundamental grounds ] [...] And one thought will appear in all those minds: Why didn’t I load up on gold when I had the chance?
2015  2016  China  consumer  debt  Super  Cycle  household  debt  mortgage  market  property  bubble  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  debt  monetisation  debt  monetization  fiscal  policy  austerity  monetary  policy  credit  card  debt  car  loan  credit  card  debt  servitude  corporate  debt  sovereign  debt  crisis  debt  bubble  debtoverhang  balance  sheet  recession  economic  history  Taper  Fed  BOE  ECB  PBOC  output  gap  globalisation  globalization  borderless  secular  stagnation  western  world  OPEC  Oil  price  commodity  prices  flat  world  BRIC  leverage 
january 2016 by asterisk2a
Europäische Zentralbank weitet Anleihenkäufe aus - Dax bricht ein - SPIEGEL ONLINE
Die Europäische Zentralbank öffnet die Geldschleusen noch weiter. Ihr umstrittenes Anleihenkaufprogramm soll mindestens sechs Monate länger laufen als geplant. Anleger reagieren enttäuscht: Der Dax bricht zeitweise um mehr als drei Prozent ein. //&! Die EZB hat den sogenannten Einlagensatz von minus 0,2 auf minus 0,3 Prozent gesenkt. Damit wird es für Banken noch teurer, überschüssiges Geld bei der Zentralbank zu parken. - bit.ly/1NsvwjS
ECB  QE  TLTRO  LTRO  2015  ZIRP  NIRP 
december 2015 by asterisk2a
Little people brace for yet another hit as banks off hook - Independent.ie
Remember the Banking Inquiry? The big game changer that was set to sort out Irish bankers once and for all. It was destined to uproot the diseased banking culture. Ireland's little people would never again be bullied. A general election was even postponed to accommodate it.
Ireland  too  big  to  bail  too  big  to  jail  bank  bailout  GFC  economic  history  Career  Politicians  No  Representation  TBTF  toobigtofail  European  Union  zombie  banks  sovereign  debt  crisis  ECB 
november 2015 by asterisk2a
Blackrock-Vize Hildebrand kritisiert europäische Behörden - SPIEGEL ONLINE
Hildebrand: Nein, dafür sehe ich keine Anzeichen. Aber was mich schon besorgt, ist das Muster, dass frappantes Fehlverhalten europäischer Firmen immer wieder von amerikanischen Behörden aufgedeckt wird. Das scheint mir das wahre Problem zu sein. Ich denke da nicht nur an VW, sondern auch an die Banken oder an die Fifa. [...] Die Amerikaner dagegen sind das Problem schon 2009 angegangen, und die Banken sind schnell wieder gesundet. In Europa hat man es unter den Teppich gekehrt. [...] Europa hat zwei Probleme, und ein wesentliches davon ist ein Nachfrageproblem: Die Wirtschaft ist nicht ausgelastet, auch die Arbeitslosigkeit ist nach wie vor zu hoch. Und die Inflation liegt nahe null. [...] Europa hat auch ein Strukturproblem. Arbeits- und Produktmärkte sind überreguliert. [ Re Credit Bubble ] Niemand weiß genau, was geschieht, wenn diese Politik einmal umgekehrt wird.
VW  bank  bailout  FIFA  corporate  scandal  Volkswagen  sovereign  debt  crisis  too  big  to  bail  Grexit  European  Union  secular  stagnation  self-regulation  regulation  regulators  deregulation  accountability  white-collar  crime  banking  investment  banking  retail  banking  recovery  MarioDraghi  ECB  NIRP  ZIRP  TLTRO  LTRO  QE  GFC  economic  history  debtoverhang  Richard  Koo  fiscal  monetary  Brussels  lost  decade  lostgeneration  lost  generation  Generationengerechtigkeit  austerity  Pact  Schuldenbremse  underinvestment  productive  investment  ageing  population  demographic  bubble  squeezed  middle  class  emerging  middle  class  discretionary  spending  Sozialer  Abstieg  income  distribution  disposable  income  Brexit  credit  bubble  BRIC  emerging  market  Developing  World  western  Niall  Ferguson 
november 2015 by asterisk2a
The new European Union | Credit Writedowns
[ EU banking system was too big to bail in case Greece and else would default even in parts on some of its debt and or make no or delay repayment with interest in full ] In conclusion, the conditions asked of Greece are not likely to be met, because they cannot be met. Greece will be blamed for not living up to its commitments, as it has been this time around. Yet, somehow, the notion of asking for the impossible from a country that has no choice but to sign is fundamentally perverse. [...] The mistake was to break the no-bailout clause that was designed to make sure the Eurozone would not find itself in this position. For selfish reasons (i.e. preventing a bank crisis in Europe and the US), Greece was convinced to accept the first bailout in 2010.
Greece  bank  bailout  banking  crisis  bank  crisis  investment  banking  retail  banking  TBTF  too  big  to  jail  too  big  to  bail  European  Union  Positioning  ECB  Career  Politicians  lobbyist  lobby  Lobbying  crony  capitalism  corporate  scandal  austerity  accounting  scandal  bailout  bail-in  Cyprus  of  Cyprus  deposit  haircut  deposit  levy  fairness  Generationengerechtigkeit  Wall  Street  profit  maximisation  shareholder  value  economic  history  fiscal  policy  monetary  policy  Basel3  banking  fractional  reserve  banking  EuropeanSystemicRiskBoard  GFC  recovery  Debt  Super  Cycle  Privatisation  ideology  dogma  PIIGSFB  PIGS  PIIGS  France  Germany  Bundesbank  trichet  Jens  Weidmann  Angela  Merkel  Peer  Steinbrück  corruption  blackmail  josefackermann  ackermann  Deutsche  subsidies  subsidizing  Mark  Blyth  social  contract  social  tension  social  cohesion  constituency  Nationalizing  badbank  badbanks  restructuring  monetary 
october 2015 by asterisk2a
Profit mean reversion and recession | Credit Writedowns
We are now in the seventh year of a cyclical recovery and bull market. Shares have tripled in that time frame. I would say this means we are much closer to the end of the business cycle than the beginning. Moreover, as Jeremy Grantham is quoted in the Business Insider piece, profits are mean-reverting and right now they are reverting from a phase that is “wildly optimistic” according to Warren Buffett. All of this is taking place against the backdrop of an economy in which wage growth is weak, household debt is still relatively high on a historic basis as a percentage of income and we have no policy room on the monetary side, with limited political appetite for policy on the fiscal side. To me, the pre-conditions for this profits recession speak to downside risk, ....
recovery  business  cycle  financial  cycle  private  debt  household  debt  consumer  debt  Student  Loan  Bubble  car  credit  card  debt  deleveraging  Richard  Koo  debtoverhang  austerity  fiscal  policy  economic  history  monetary  policy  job  creation  Service  Sector  Jobs  western  world  secular  stagnation  Niall  Ferguson  wage  stagnation  wage  growth  income  distribution  Gini  coefficient  inequality  trickle-down  economics  neoliberalism  neoliberal  Wall  Street  bank  bailout  budget  deficit  UK  USA  Schuldenbremse  Pact  sovereign  debt  crisis  Positioning  mainstreet.org  Germany  disposable  income  discretionary  spending  income  growth  low  income  crony  capitalism  reflate  reflation  Career  Politicians  constituency  fairness  Generationengerechtigkeit  Niedriglohnsektor  lobbyist  lobby  Lobbying  corporate  welfare  tax  evasion  tax  avoidance  income  inequality  social  mobility  social  contract  political  theory  income  mobility  Standard  American  Diet  equity  credit  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  BRIC  BOE  Fed  Fed  mandate  BOJ  PBOC  distortion  2015  ECB  Super  debt  servitude  zombie  consumer  zombie  banks  zombie  corporations  junk  bond  Taper  QT  irrational  exuberance  asset  allocation  capital  allocation  speculative  bubbles  commodity  prices  Oil  price  inflation  expe 
october 2015 by asterisk2a
In the loop October 2: Flemish separatism, F1 and the Juncker plan by POLITICO Europe
min 17 - behind-the-scenes fight in the European Parliament over the appointment of top managers for the so-called Juncker Plan: a €315 billion EU investment plan. // threat of White Elephants, roads and bridges to nowhere ... only politicians can put themselves in front of photojournalists for photo op. no productive investments into the future. renewable, smart grid, private public paternerships, carbon emission reduction projects ie urbanisation planning projects to half city traffic and put cycling network in place, and zero emission public transportation, ... --- no accountability, no oversight no transparency. risk of corruption, bribery, dirty handshakes, ...
European  Union  technocrat  bureaucrat  Jean-Claude  Juncker  infrastructure  investment  STEM  Research  R&D  underinvestment  fiscal  policy  Pact  fiscal  stimulus  public  investment  business  investment  Schuldenbremse  Politics  Career  Politicians  No  Representation  Brussels  European  Parliament  European  Election  2014  European  Commission  Eurobond  PIGS  PIIGSFB  Richard  Koo  secular  stagnation  Niall  Ferguson  Germany  Angela  Merkel  Wolfgang  Schäuble  Eurogroup  austerity  Grexit  business  confidence  consumer  confidence  excess  reserves  zombie  banks  zombie  corporations  zombie  consumer  ECB  QE  TLTRO  LTRO  monetary  policy  monetary  transmission  mechanism  monetary  stimulus  liquidity  trap  ZIRP  NIRP  corruption  ideology  dogma  campaign  promises  White  Elephant  productive  investment  productivity  Makers  policy  folly  social  contract  political  theory  accountability  transparency  oversight  2015 
october 2015 by asterisk2a
Weltwirtschaft: BIZ warnt vor Krediten in Schwellenländern - SPIEGEL ONLINE
Die Bank für Internationalen Zahlungsausgleich sieht Alarmzeichen für Banken in vielen Schwellenländern. Die Kreditvergabe in China, Brasilien oder der Türkei habe ein bedrohliches Verhältnis angenommen, warnt die Notenbank. // &! Die Welt steuert auf den Bankrott zu (QE trap): Eine vorläufige Antwort: Das tieferliegende Problem besteht darin, dass sich die Weltwirtschaft insgesamt auf den Bankrott zubewegt - und das wird umso schneller gehen, je höher die Zinsen sind und je niedriger die Preissteigerungsraten.
BIS  credit  bubble  2015  China  BRIC  NPL  shadow  banking  junk  bond  creditrating  banking  crisis  excess  reserves  QE  ZIRP  NIRP  hot-money  currency-war  currency  debasement  currency  war  centralbanks  economic  history  hunt  for  yield  FOMO  speculative  bubbles  FX  reserves  Turkey  Brazil  Developing  World  Fed  distortion  unknown  unkown  unintended  consequences  Raghuram  Rajan  BOE  BOJ  Abenomics  PBOC  ECB  emerging  market  emerging  middle  class  AIIB  Asia  South  Africa  Latin  America  deflationary  deflation  secular  stagnation  western  Niall  Ferguson  globalization  globalisation  wage  stagnation  disposable  income  income  distribution  income  inequality  income  growth  income  mobility  income  gap  wage  growth  GFC  recovery  fiscal  policy  monetary  policy  austerity  Pact  European  Union  UK  USA  Richard  Koo  Joseph  Stiglitz  Paul  Krugman  dogma  ideology  Fed  mandate  inflation  targeting  New  Normal  bond  bubble  QE  trap  liquidity  trap  reflate  reflation  asset  bubble  asset  allocation  property  bubble  capital  allocation  QT  debt  monetisation  debt  monetization  trickle-down  economics  marginal  cost  economics  of  abundance  digital  economy  Software  Is  Eating  The  World  World  Bank  IMF  savings  glut  faultlines  structural  imbalance  Impediments  Super  Cycle  debt  ser 
september 2015 by asterisk2a
RICHARD KOO: 'Struggle between markets and central banks has only just begun' - Business Insider
… much of the rise in share prices and fall in currency values under QE were nothing more than liquidity-driven phenomena divorced from real economy fundamentals. Now that an end to QE is in sight, it is time for a correction. Fed Chair Janet Yellen’s remarks several months ago about elevated stock market valuations were most likely a reference to this bubble. A correction of some kind was inevitable as the Fed moved to normalize monetary policy. However, it still needed a trigger, and that was provided by China. [...] “The market gyrations of the last two months represent just the beginning of the QE trap”, says Koo.
Richard  Koo  Taper  2015  credit  bubble  reflate  reflation  monetary  policy  fiscal  policy  Janet  Yellen  Fed  mandate  China  BRIC  global  economy  global  trade  western  world  secular  stagnation  deflationary  deflation  asset  bubble  speculative  bubbles  hunt  for  yield  FOMO  property  bubble  equity  bubble  bond  bubble  distortion  correction  Student  Loan  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  BIS  centralbanks  BOE  Abenomics  BOJ  ECB  Fed  unconventional  monetary  policy  liquidity  trap  excess  reserves  retail  banking  consumer  debt  household  debt  deleveraging  wage  growth  income  growth  low  income  marginal  propensity  to  consume  disposable  income  discretionary  spending  wage  stagnation  income  distribution  inequality  Gini  coefficient  income  inequality  income  mobility  social  mobility  Niall  Ferguson  bank  bailout  banking  crisis  recovery  GFC  austerity  Schuldenbremse  Pact  European  Union  UK  USA  Career  Politicians  crony  capitalism  No  Representation  fairness  Generationengerechtigkeit  sovereign  debt  crisis  PR  spin  doctor  reframing  framing  trickle-down  economics  neoliberalism  neoliberal  investment  banking  business  investment  business  confidence  Blue  Ocean  PBOC  New  Normal  economic  growth  monetary  stimulus 
september 2015 by asterisk2a
Jim Grant: The Fed Turned the Stock Market Into a 'Hall of Mirrors' - YouTube
- bull market in equities not reflective of real fundamentals on the side of the consumer (aggregate demand, marginal propensity to consume). can not pick up the tab. inequality also does not help.
equity  bubble  frothy  distortion  USA  Fed  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  credit  bubble  BRIC  BOE  ECB  excess  reserves  correction  2015  BOJ  reflate  reflation  Abenomics  hunt  for  yield  recovery  GFC  Taper  FOMO  asset  allocation  capital  allocation  behavioral  finance  behavioral  economics  fiscal  policy  austerity  western  world  developed  world  secular  stagnation  disposable  income  income  distribution  income  growth  low  income  income  gap  consumer  confidence  business  confidence  business  investment  underinvestment  hot-money  speculative  bubbles  speculative  speculation  currency-war  currency  debasement  currency  war  property  bubble  Richard  Koo  monetary  stimulus  monetary  policy  fiat  currency  monetary  transmission  mechanism  liquidity  trap  Pact  Schuldenbremse  Europe  UK  Japan  Germany  marginal  propensity  to  consume  consumer  debt  household  debt  job  creation  job  security  working  poor  inequality  Gini  coefficient  Sozialer  Abstieg  squeezed  middle  class  precarious  work  wage  growth  wage  stagnation  income  inequality  income  mobility  Super  Rich  1%  bank  bailout  banking  crisis  sovereign  debt  crisis  Polarisation  Career  Politicians  dogma  ideology  crony  capitalism 
september 2015 by asterisk2a
Brazil's downgrade | Authers' Note - YouTube
- 6 killer apps not yet properly installed. - // and still dependent on western world demand! aggregate demand via western consumer. // credit bubble and ZIRP/NIRP/QE has run its way largely // private sector could not pick up recovery. no appetite. same for SME SMB mittelstand. excess reserves not lend out because the horse has to drink by itself, can't make the drink. // especially when it has no means to served future credit interest payment coupons and principal repayment with no income growth! for decades. // inequality huts, middle class destoryed. - Career Politicans, Fear, polarisation, inequality, gini coefficient, zeit arbeit, leiharbeit, self-employment, working conditions, ...sozialer abstieg, squeezed middle class, ... insecurity, cloudy future, richard koo: austerity isn't helping!
Brazil  BRIC  Developing  World  China  credit  bubble  Latin  America  India  Russia  South  Africa  2015  Niall  Ferguson  NiallFerguson  recovery  GFC  QE  ZIRP  NIRP  distortion  emerging  middle  class  western  aggregate  demand  Supply  and  and  Supply  economic  history  Richard  Koo  monetary  policy  monetary  stimulus  monetary  transmission  mechanism  monetary  theory  globalization  globalisation  hunt  for  yield  FOMO  frothy  correction  equity  bubble  speculative  bubbles  speculative  speculation  property  bubble  asset  allocation  capital  allocation  hot-money  currency-war  currency  debasement  currency  war  Fed  BOE  BOJ  Abenomics  ECB  PBOC  banking  crisis  bank  bailout  austerity  UK  USA  Europe  Fiscal  Pact  Schuldenbremse  policy  consolidation  trickle-down  economics  neoliberalism  neoliberal  income  growth  disposable  income  discretionary  spending  low  income  job  creation  labour  market  wage  growth  secular  stagnation  wage  stagnation  income  distribution  Super  Rich  1%  marginal  propensity  to  consume  consumer  debt  household  debt  business  investment  business  confidence  global  trade  global  economy  global  imbalances  Structural  Impediments  imbalance  underemployed  participation  rate  productivity  output  gap  macroeconomic  policy  policy  job  microeconomi 
september 2015 by asterisk2a
World Bank warns on US rate rise - BBC News
[ game of chicken ] [ can private sector carry forward the little bit of recovery/growth the western world got in a rising interest rate world, that will eat away spending bc of higher repayment rates amid little to no wage growth !!! ] [W]arned developing countries to brace themselves for possible financial turbulence when the US Federal Reserve starts to raise interest rates. It could come as early as Thursday when the Fed concludes a policy meeting. A new report from the World Bank says there will probably be a modest impact on developing countries. But it also warns there is some risk that it could be worse. The Bank says it is possible that there would be sufficient disruption to capital flows into developing countries to harm economic growth and financial stability. //&! bit.ly/1QhP6Of //&! youtu.be/G8lCqhCbrA4 //&! youtu.be/KH1UlvgXqTE = bond sell-off move in anticipation of Taper. //&! strength of dollar added already 25bps - youtu.be/zWrxFszwrsQ &! youtu.be/lpTkQqEQmE4
Taper  Fed  BOE  2015  BIS  ZIRP  NIRP  QE  Richard  Koo  reflate  reflation  asset  bubble  hunt  for  yield  FOMO  frothy  World  Bank  distortion  unknown  unkown  unintended  consequences  capital  allocation  asset  allocation  speculative  bubbles  speculative  speculation  monetary  policy  monetary  transmission  mechanism  liquidity  trap  monetary  theory  GFC  recovery  credit  bubble  China  BRIC  Brazil  India  South  Africa  Russia  Europe  UK  BOJ  Abenomics  liquidity  credit  squeeze  excess  reserves  PBOC  economic  history  creditcrunch  credit  crunch  ECB  commodity  prices  energy  price  Oil  price  OPEC  petrodollar  QT  FX  reserves  global  trade  New  Normal  secular  stagnation  faultlines  Structural  Impediments  imbalance  western  deflationary  deflation  austerity  fiscal  policy  monetary  stimulus  monetary  system  debt  monetisation  debt  monetization  unconventional  monetary  policy  debtoverhang  refinancing  creditrating  creditrisk  deleveraging  private  debt  household  debt  disposable  income  discretionary  spending  wage  stagnation  wage  growth  income  growth  income  distribution  low  income  inequality  Gini  coefficient  squeezed  middle  class  downward  mobility  working  poor  precarious  work  Zero  Hour  Contract  Contractor  self-employment  Zeitarbeit  Leiharbeit  Sozialer  Abstieg  j 
september 2015 by asterisk2a
Pando: Good news! B rounds have doubled in value over five years!
B Round! doubling down on (to a certain point) proven ideas as they move to make themselves solid/viable (building business model & continued growth if not even putting some more gasoline on the fire with a B Round - allocation of resources). thus there is competition thus bidding up in a private market. BUT BUT also reflects the rising cost! Rising cost to grow, the war for talent to scale, and the cost in said hubs/ecosystems where the talent are already working on scaling other companies, where rent is sky high and space rare to expand office, ops, ramp up head count, ... // why, on a side note!, ? because global ZIRP, NIRP, QE, hunt for yield, FOMO, property speculation, alternative asset management and allocation (newly minted paper millionaers) have bid up prices in metropolitan and hot cities by credit bubbles around the world. bc financial markets are global, thus your allocation/diversification is global, not limited where ur home addr is. adding to volatiliy too bc of froth!
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september 2015 by asterisk2a
Raghuram Rajan - One-on-One: an investigative interview - 44th St. Gallen Symposium - YouTube
Relying too much on the wrong instrument, monetary policy, unconventional QE2 & 3 >> little domestic positive impact but spilled over much across the world! // consequences now seen (1) taper tantrum late 2014 & then summer 2015; china slow-down/equity crash & taper anticipation moves followed up by pulling money out of emerging/developing markets! financial market are divergent from domestic business market. cycles shifted apart slightly. investor, business, financial market & consumer confidence are not linked as tightly before! // financial markets are now global, business markets itself not as much! money can be pulled out digitally in an instance. // no net-positive 4 whole world. selfishness. long-run danger. unintended consequences, unknown unknowns. // global sub-optimal monetary policy // global system (monetary system) broke // uncertainty, unknown of taper. timing debate. game of chicken. volatility bc of lots of froth, distortion! // &! youtu.be/SZe3issLIb8
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september 2015 by asterisk2a
Public Lecture by Professor Niall Ferguson 2013-04-09 - YouTube
[6 Killer Apps - youtu.be/xpnFeyMGUs8 ] Degeneration and Regeneration after the GFC // interlude: Margaret Thatcher, the power of ideas in public office, in politics: Nature of freedom, economic freedom & other freedoms. Hayek & Adam Smith // The Great Degeneration (new Book 2013). Theme: The role of institutions in the creation and preservation of freedom. // GFC = "The slight depression." Avoided Great Depression like scenario by policy response (reflation) different to previous history. Talks abt equity market levels back 2 pre-2007 levels. EQUITY/(financial) ASSET PRICES. Bank Bailout! But NOT reached (real economy) escape velocity! Proper recovery! Under Keynes it should be an admission of defeat (bc lack of fiscal stimulus)! Is a sub-plot in the story of western decline! Great reconvergence of west & the rest of the world. // &! youtu.be/VVsP2X4kuA8 &! importance of civil institutions - youtu.be/8RB7Ah95RM4 bit.ly/1NqF7am &! youtu.be/kXTjj9NQKYo &! youtu.be/tyYTChxYAQ4
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september 2015 by asterisk2a
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