asterisk2a + 2009   212

UK GDP revisions: Bigger boom, deeper bust, earlier recovery | The Economist
The new figures clear up some puzzles. For instance, net exports made a bigger contribution to GDP growth in 2009 and 2010 than previously thought and consumer spending was weaker. That points to greater"rebalancing" in the economy and a larger effect of a weaker currency on the mix of spending. But the resilience of the jobs market (until very recently) is still hard to reconcile with a fairly sluggish recovery in 2009 and 2010. That suggests more upward revisions are likely. GDP figures (in Britain, at least) are always provisional. It takes years for the true picture to emerge.
GDP  economy  economics  UK  revision  2009  2010  2011  rebalancing  greatrecession  2008  recession  recovery 
october 2011 by asterisk2a
Recession Took Bigger Bite Than Estimated - Bloomberg
Gross domestic product shrank 5.1 percent from the fourth quarter of 2007 to the second quarter of 2009, compared with the previously reported 4.1 percent drop, the Commerce Department said today in Washington. The second-worst contraction in the post-World War II era was a 3.7 percent decline in 1957-58.The depth of the economic slump better explains why the jobless rate doubled, climbing from 5 percent at the start of the downturn to a 26-year high 10.1 percent in October 2009. The strongest quarter of the recovery is now the first three months of last year. Growth decelerated every quarter thereafter.“The overall recession is indeed deeper,” Steven Landefeld, director of the Commerce Department’s Bureau of Economic Analysis, told reporters this week. “This is the Great Recession, the deepest one we’ve had in the post-WWII era.”
greatrecession  2008  2009  USA  statistics  GDP  revision 
july 2011 by asterisk2a
Foreclosure Probe Talks Said to Yield Some Agreements With Banks - Bloomberg
Signed Agreements
In addition to Bank of America and JPMorgan, also taking part in the regulator agreements were Wells Fargo & Co. (WFC), Citigroup Inc. (C), the GMAC unit of Ally Financial Inc., Aurora Bank FSB, EverBank Financial Corp., HSBC Holdings Plc, OneWest, MetLife Inc., PNC Financial Services Group Inc. (PNC), Sovereign Bank, SunTrust Banks Inc., and US Bancorp.
Bank of America, JPMorgan, San Francisco-based Wells Fargo, New York-based Citigroup and Detroit-based Ally are the five companies involved in the talks with the 50 states.
The federal regulators said their agreements with the servicers are designed as a tool for state and federal law enforcement agencies as they seek a global settlement.
foreclosure  2009  2010  2011  settelment  BofA  jpmorgan 
april 2011 by asterisk2a
Fed Lending Benefited Banks Far and Wide -
The Fed data showed that the biggest recipient of taxpayer assistance was, naturally, Citigroup. It was followed closely by Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch and Bank of America. Goldman Sachs was also a large beneficiary during the darkest moments of 2008.
Remember that the Wall Street firms were imperiled by their excessive use of borrowed money, which generated huge paydays when the cost of those funds was cheap and the values of the assets they were buying were rising at a steady clip. After the bubble burst and financing evaporated, the firms were able to tap into a lending program created by the Fed in mid-March 2008 after Bear Stearns collapsed. It was called the Primary Dealer Credit Facility.
The program allowed firms to borrow at low interest rates — ranging from 3.25 percent when the program began to 0.5 percent when the last loan was made in May 2009. The firms had to post various securities as collateral when they borrowed, and some of those securities were risky indeed.
fed  benbernanke  balancesheet  interbank  report  financialcrisis  FinancialCrisisInquiryCommission  2008  2009  bearstearns  citigroup  goldmansachs  shadowbanking  fanniemae  freddiemac  aig  lending  overnight 
december 2010 by asterisk2a
Jon Stewart Rally Shifts Blame to the News Media -
So instead the host of “The Daily Show” took steady aim on the one American institution that everyone can agree to hate: The Media. Within the first minute of his deft, very articulate stump speech at the end of the rally, Mr. Stewart turned his gun sights on the, um, fake news, which he called, “the country’s 24-hour political pundit perpetual panic conflictinator,” which, he added, “did not cause our problems, but its existence makes solving them that much harder.”

“The press can hold its magnifying glass up to our problems bringing them into focus, illuminating issues heretofore unseen or they can use that magnifying glass to light ants on fire and then perhaps host a week of shows on the sudden, unexpected dangerous, flaming ant epidemic,” he said, to roars of approval from the crowd.
presidency  politics  barackobama  foxnews  rupertmurdoch  partisanship  democrats  republicans  2010  2009  2011  greatrecession  USA  lobby  media  journalism 
november 2010 by asterisk2a
Romer Says Stimulus Averted a 2nd Great Depression -
“What was not clear at the time was how quickly and strongly the financial crisis would affect the economy,” she said. Because such financial shocks are rare, she added, “to this day economists don’t fully understand why firms cut production as much as they did, and why they cut labor so much more than they normally would.”

Ms. Romer, a scholar of the Depression who is returning to the University of California, Berkeley, to resume teaching, said economists would be studying those questions for years.

“In any event,” she added, “almost all analysts were surprised by the violent reaction.”

“I am proud of the recovery actions we have taken,” she said. “I believe they have made the difference between a second Great Depression and a slow but genuine recovery. And the passage of health care reform and financial regulatory reform are accomplishments that will be with us long after the recession is over.”
recession  usa  2008  2009  unemployment  economics  behaviour  irrational 
september 2010 by asterisk2a
Merrills Downfall Provides Disclosure Lesson -
Only after the housing bubble began to deflate did Merrill and other banks begin to clearly divulge the many billions of dollars of troubled securities that were linked to them, often through opaque vehicles like Pyxis.

In the third quarter of 2007, for instance, Merrill reported that its potential exposure to certain subprime investments was $15.2 billion. Three months later, it said that exposure was actually $46 billion. At the time, Merrill said it had initially excluded the difference because it thought it had protected itself with various hedges.

But many of those hedges later failed, and Merrill, the brokerage giant that brought Wall Street to Main Street, soon collapsed into the arms of Bank of America.

“It’s like the parable of the blind man and the elephant: you had some people feeling the trunk and some the legs, and there was nobody putting it all together,”
merrylllynch  bankofamerica  BofA  subprime  hedge  bubble  property  2007  2008  2009  fraud  practice  banking  SEC  FDIC  disclosure  shadowbanking 
august 2010 by asterisk2a
Global Village: Schiffbruch in Dubai - SPIEGEL ONLINE - Nachrichten - Panorama
Die Bank weigert sich: "Wir haben eine wichtige Verantwortung, die Interessen unserer Kunden und Anteilseigner zu schützen - eine Verantwortung, die wir sehr ernst nehmen." Warner habe das Land verlassen, ohne sie darüber zu informieren. Außerdem habe er sich "oft unkooperativ" gezeigt. Nicholas Warner hat das Pech, nun für alle mitbezahlen zu müssen, die Dubai während der Finanzkrise Hals über Kopf verlassen haben, verlassen mussten, ohne ihre Kredite abbezahlt zu haben.

Die britische Botschaft hat ihm Geld gegeben: "Ich sollte mir einen Chickenburger kaufen. Das war's." Warner macht das System Dubai für seine Lage mitverantwortlich: "Es soll die neue Welt sein hier. Aber es ist wie in England im 18. Jahrhundert. Wer Schulden hat, kommt in den Turm, statt sie abarbeiten zu können."
dubai  UAE  creditcrunch  recession  government  2008  2009  2010  debt 
august 2010 by asterisk2a
Op-Ed Columnist - Free to Lose -
Germany came into the Great Recession with strong employment protection legislation. This has been supplemented with a “short-time work scheme,” which provides subsidies to employers who reduce workers’ hours rather than laying them off. These measures didn’t prevent a nasty recession, but Germany got through the recession with remarkably few job losses.

Should US be trying anything along these lines? In a recent interview in The Washington Post, Lawrence Summers, the Obama administration’s highest-ranking economist, was dismissive: “It may be desirable to have a given amount of work shared among more people. But that’s not as desirable as expanding the total amount of work.” True. But we are not, in fact, expanding the total amount of work — and Congress doesn’t seem willing to spend enough on stimulus to change that unfortunate fact. So shouldn’t we be considering other measures, if only as a stopgap?

European-style employment policies is that they’re bad for long-run growth
paulkrugman  employment  usa  germany  policy  economic  unemployment  benefits  2009  2010  economics 
may 2010 by asterisk2a
Less Educated Men Face Brutal Job Market -
Even more alarming, the jobs that many of these men, or those like them, once had in construction, factories and offices aren't coming back. "A good guess…is that when the economy recovers five years from now, one in six men who are 25 to 54 will not be working," Lawrence Summers, the president's economic adviser, said the other day.

This is not one of the many things that can be blamed on subprime lending, inept regulators or Goldman Sachs. "The Great Recession has reinforced prevailing labor market trends that were under way long before the recession," David Autor, a Massachusetts Institute of Technology economist, observed in a recent paper commissioned by two Democratic-leaning think tanks, the Center for American Progress and the Hamilton Project.

In the middle, there will be some jobs for workers without much education, for the plumbers, electricians and software technicians. But not enough to go around.

David Wessel
unemployment  men  women  mencessions  recession  greatrecession  economics  restructuring  economy  recovery  2009  2010  unintended  consequences  usa 
may 2010 by asterisk2a
EZB in der Euro-Krise: Notenbanker in Not - SPIEGEL ONLINE - Nachrichten - Wirtschaft
Im Zuge der Krise brechen bislang sicher geglaubte Dämme. Die US-Fed und die Bank of England haben schon seit anderthalb Jahren direkt Staatsanleihen aufgekauft, und zwar mit frisch gedrucktem Geld. Eine Politik, die in normalen Zeiten inflationär wirkt. Deshalb ist der Europäischen Zentralbank diese Strategie durch den Vertrag von Maastricht verboten. Eigentlich. Aber selbst Notenbank-Insider sind sich nicht mehr sicher, inwieweit das Regelwerk noch Bestand hat. Eigentlich ist es ja den Euro-Staaten nach den EU-Verträgen auch untersagt, angeschlagenen Währungsunion-Mitgliedern finanziell unter die Arme zu greifen. Dennoch organisieren sie jetzt Hilfe für Griechenland. Und vielleicht bald für weitere Länder.
ECB  debt  monetization  sovereign  Fed  BoE  2008  2009  2010  greece  bailout  PIIGS  may  collateral  trichet  EMU  europeanunion  europe  eurozone 
may 2010 by asterisk2a
YouTube - Buffet Cannot Escape Credit Pinch; California Foreclosure; Morgan Stanley Hires SocGen's Francois; Google Working On Opening
As credit becomes more expensive
les future investments will be made
maybe better allocation
butt gap to emerging countries narrows
creditcrisis  warrenbuffet  interestrate  interest  sovereign  debt  unintended  consequences  2009  2010  2011  2012 
may 2010 by asterisk2a
Don't Blame Unemployment Extension for High Jobless Rate - Real Time Economics - WSJ
San Francisco Fed chief Janet Yellen warned earlier this month the unemployment rate may only tick down to 9.25% by year’s end, before heading to a still high 8% by the end of 2011. If she’s right, that suggests the problem of extended unemployment will be an enduring one. Economists and legislators alike will have to confront again the issue of unemployment insurance, both as a lifeline and as coddling element.
unemployment  forecast  outlook  usa  benefits  recession  recovery  2010  2011  2009  study  research  academia 
april 2010 by asterisk2a
The Greatest Shell Game Ever Continues As The Whole World Is Now Insolvent; Updated Thoughts From Chris Martenson On The Upcoming US Funding Crisis | zero hedge
# Record-breaking Treasury auctions continue to go off without a hitch, thanks to massive foreign participation.
# However, the amounts reported to be bought in the auction results do not match the Custody Account or TIC report amounts.
# The Fed is allegedly all done buying MBS and Treasury paper. This cuts off an important source of liquidity for the Treasury, commodity, and stock markets.
# How will these markets respond to a liquidity drought?

Part of the explanation behind this unwavering support for the dollar and US deficit spending by other central banks lays in the fact that other Western and Eastern governments are equally insolvent. It's possible that they feel they really have no choice but to play along, because the alternative would be to inflict a vicious and deeply unpopular austerity program on their own country, while everybody else is partying on thin-air money. Who's going to be the first to do that? Nobody, that's who.
MBS  Fed  treasury  treasuries  usa  debt  stockmarket  rally  2009  2010  deficit 
april 2010 by asterisk2a
G.D.P. Growth Revised Down for 4th Quarter -
The roaring growth rate in the fourth quarter was largely the result of a slowdown in how quickly businesses slashed stockpiles. Inventories remained well stocked in the fourth quarter, contributing more than 3 percent to gross domestic product.

Economists do not expect the restocking of inventories to contribute as much to future growth. Forecasts call for the economy to grow at an annual rate of 2 to 3 percent in the first quarter of 2010 — far short of the levels needed to significantly reduce the jobless rate, which stands at 9.7 percent.
gdp  usa  2009  greatrecession  recovery  stimulus  inventory  growth  unemployment  2010  outlook 
march 2010 by asterisk2a
FT Alphaville » Italy ❤ currency swaps too
Germany municipalities and cities did it too.
Go on the market to get liquidity
government  debt  speculation  recession  2008  2009  2010  consequences  italy  greece  germany 
february 2010 by asterisk2a
Wall St.’s Biggest Bonuses Go to Not-So-Big Names -
Leaders in the pay sweepstakes include the heads of the credit card giants Visa, Mastercard Worldwide, Capital One Financial and American Express. Joseph W. Saunders, who runs Visa, was paid about $15.5 million, a figure that vastly eclipses the compensation for top executives at Bank of America and Citigroup.

Ajay Banga, the president of MasterCard Worldwide; Laurence D. Fink, the chairman and chief executive of the giant money management company BlackRock; and Richard B. Handler, the boss at the Jefferies Group, a midsize investment bank that is virtually unknown outside financial circles, were each paid about $13 million. Executives at certain discount brokerages, insurance companies and regional banks were close behind.
bonuses  2009 
february 2010 by asterisk2a
FT Alphaville » Germany’s export decision
German growth — without the support of government emergency measures, including subsidies for car purchases — came in flat compared with the previous three months, according to the country’s statistical office. The market had been expecting 0.2 per cent growth.
However, the initial readings from Germany suggest that weakness in the Eurozone is far broader than initially anticipated. This will add to the euro’s problems.
germany  2009  2010  economy  gdp  growth  europe 
february 2010 by asterisk2a
BBC News - German economic recovery falters
Germany's recovery from recession faltered in the final quarter of 2009, according to preliminary figures released on Friday.

The German economy failed to grow at all in the last three months of the year, with GDP unchanged compared with the previous quarter.

Meanwhile, France reported a 0.6% rise in GDP for the same three-month period - better than analysts expected.

Figures also showed the eurozone economy grew 0.1% in the same quarter.

The BBC's Tristana Moore in Berlin said the figures were "worse than expected".
Year-on-year, the economy shrank by 1.7%, the figures showed.

That was despite an 18.4% fall in exports for 2009 as a whole - the biggest year-on-year fall since 1950, losing it the title of world's biggest exporter to China.
france  germany  recession  europe  gdp  growth  2009 
february 2010 by asterisk2a
Source: Apple And Google Agreed Not To Poach Workers
This news follows a report by The Washington Post in early June that the Justice Department was looking into this very issue. That report cited sources close to the investigation stating that the government was looking for possible antitrust violations among several tech companies, including Google and Apple, with regard to their hiring policies. But that report didn’t say whether or not it was actually taking place. According to our sources, it is.
apple  google  antitrust  competition  employment  2009 
february 2010 by asterisk2a
A Modified Bill Moves Regulatory Plan Forward -
That proposal set off criticism by Democrats and Republicans, some with close ties to the banking industry, that it was the first step toward having government bureaucrats approve and disapprove an array of products.

At a hearing on Wednesday before the financial services committee, Treasury Secretary Timothy F. Geithner said: “There has been a lot of concern that if you invest the government with the ability to decide what’s appropriate here and there, that will lead to less competition and choice. The chairman’s proposals, which I’ve had a chance to read quickly, provide a better balance of choice and protection.”

Mr. Frank said his measure would exempt various businesses — like merchants, retailers and providers of retirement plans — from oversight by the consumer financial protection agency.
CFPA  barneyfrank  timgeithner  regulation  reform  financial  banking  SEC  CFTC  derivatives  2009 
february 2010 by asterisk2a
Obama's $3.8 Trillion Budget Includes Record Deficit
The deficit for this year would surge to a record-breaking $1.56 trillion, topping last year's then-unprecedented $1.41 trillion gap, a number which had dwarfed the previous record of $454.8 billion set in 2008 under former President George W. Bush.
The result is a budget plan that would give the country trillion-dollar-plus deficits for three consecutive years. Obama's new budget projects a spending increase of 5.7 percent for the current budget year and forecasts that spending would rise another 3 percent in 2011 to $3.83 trillion.

The deficit for this year would be 10.6 percent of the total economy,
budget  deficit  2009  2008  2010  2011  usa 
february 2010 by asterisk2a
On Menu in Japan - Beef Bowl With Side of Deflation -
“These cutthroat price wars could usher in another recessionary hell,” the influential economist Noriko Hama wrote in a magazine article that has won much attention. “If we all got used to spending just 250 yen for every meal, then meals priced respectably will soon become too expensive,” she said. “When you buy something cheap, you lower the value of your own life.”

Deflation — defined as a decline in the prices of goods and services

Moreover, the population is shrinking, making demand inherently weak. Economists say Japan’s economy is saddled with a 35 trillion yen, or $388 billion, “demand gap,” or almost 7 percent of the country’s economic output.

Economists say it is absurd to blame individual companies for Japan’s deflation. “For prices to fall during an economic downturn is natural. That stimulates demand and facilitates an eventual recovery,” “But this mechanism doesn’t work when there is such a big demand shortfall.”
deflation  japan  2009  2010 
january 2010 by asterisk2a
Economic Growth Accelerated in Fourth Quarter -
The broadest measure of economic activity, gross domestic product, expanded at an annual rate of 5.7 percent in the fourth quarter, after a 2.2 percent increase the previous quarter.

The economy has been able to grow even without adding workers because employers have found ways to accomplish more with fewer workers. Productivity grew at a robust rate of 8.1 percent in the third quarter of 2009, the most recent data available.

The single biggest factor in the strong growth rate last quarter was not consumers buying more, but businesses letting their stockpiles shrink at a slower rate than they had been previously.

The annual growth rate initially reported by the government for the third quarter of 2009 was 3.5 percent, but was later revised to 2.2 percent. The government’s final tally of last quarter’s output will be released in March.
gdp  2009  usa  recession  recovery  unemployment 
january 2010 by asterisk2a
Summers: GDP ‘Favorable,’ but More Effort Needed - Real Time Economics - WSJ
But he said the administration isn’t satisfied, and that President Barack Obama is focused on tackling the “profoundly serious” problems of unemployment and weak income growth for the middle class cited in the State of the Union address.

For the dollar to remain a reserve currency, however, U.S. policymakers must pursue measures that create strong fundamentals, the former Treasury secretary said.

“That’s why the emphasis on budget deficit reduction was such an important component of the president’s State of the Union [on Wednesday],” said Summers.
middleclass  USA  recession  2009  2010  GDP  larrysummers  unemployment  income  barackobama  presidency  recovery 
january 2010 by asterisk2a
Broader U-6 Unemployment Rate Increases to 17.3% in December - Real Time Economics - WSJ
The U.S. jobless rate was unchanged at 10% in December, following a decline the previous month, but the government’s broader measure of unemployment ticked up 0.1 percentage point to 17.3%
unemployment  2009  december  usa  measurement  accounting 
january 2010 by asterisk2a
SocGen takes €1.4bn asset hit
French banking giant Societe Generale is to take €1.4bn of write-downs and provisions on US mortgage-related assets in the fourth quarter, slashing its profits in the three-month period.

The Paris-based lender said it will still make a ‘slight’ profit but didn’t provide a specific figure. Before the warning, market forecasts were for fourth quarter profits of between €850m and €960m, but these now look way too high. SocGen made a net profit of €87m in the same period last year.
SocieteGenerale  mortage  MBS  europe  financial  market  assetbackedsecurities  asset  writedowns  2009  2010  banks  bank 
january 2010 by asterisk2a
Lawrence Mishel: Jobs: Aughts for Naught
This morning the Labor Department issued its final monthly jobs report for the decade just ended. In December 2009, the economy shed 85,000 jobs and the unemployment rate held at 10.0 percent, but only because 661,000 people left the labor force.

So this report makes it official: The last decade was indeed a lost decade for job creation. We're beginning 2010 with just about 131 million jobs, only 129,000 more than at the beginning of the decade. This is despite the fact that the U.S. population has grown by roughly 25 million people since 2000.
lostdecade  unemployment  employment  usa  2009  2010  decade 
january 2010 by asterisk2a
Mortgage Modifications Are Seen as Adding to Housing Woes -
The Obama administration’s $75 billion program to protect homeowners from foreclosure has been widely pronounced a disappointment, and some economists and real estate experts now contend it has done more harm than good

Some experts argue the program has impeded economic recovery by delaying a wrenching yet cleansing process through which borrowers give up unaffordable homes and banks fully reckon with their disastrous bets on real estate, enabling money to flow more freely through the financial system.

“The choice we appear to be making is trying to modify our way out of this, which has the effect of lengthening the crisis,” said Kevin Katari, managing member of Watershed Asset Management, a San Francisco-based hedge fund. “We have simply slowed the foreclosure pipeline, with people staying in houses they are ultimately not going to be able to afford anyway.”
housing  housemarket  stimulus  government  economics  USA  2009  2010  bubble  loans  mortage  foreclosure  crisis  accounting  reflate  inflate  recovery  delay  realestate 
january 2010 by asterisk2a
A Record Budget Stirs Debt Worries in Japan -
The Japanese government approved on Friday a record ¥92.3 trillion budget for the next fiscal year that encompasses ambitious welfare outlays to help households cope with the country’s deep economic woes, but the scale of new spending could renew investor jitters about the government’s burgeoning debt.
japan  debt  2010  recession  stimulus  recovery  2009  bond  government 
december 2009 by asterisk2a
Picking Up Nickels in Front of the Steamroller: A Simple and Partial Finger Exercise - J. Bradford DeLong's Grasping Reality with a Prehensile Tail
Okun gaps, monetary accommodation, speculator overoptimism, bailouts, carry trades, bubbles, and taking away the punchbowl before the party really gets rolling.
Okun-gap  monetary  speculator  overoptimism  optimism  keynes  bailout  carrytrades  bubbles  punchbowl  fed  policy  speculation  2009  2010  dow  wallstreet  recession  recovery  double-dip  Keynesianism 
december 2009 by asterisk2a
Why Aren’t Banks Lending? They Are Being Rational | The Big Picture
Lending money is a risky business; there is the possibility of loss. Under-capitalized banks cannot take that chance. By not lending, their capital base goes up. IT is the rational thing to do from their perspective.
Rather than engage in traditional money lending, these banks have decided to simply borrow from the Fed at 0%, and make risk free loans to the Treasury at 3%.
... 1 point for keynes to stop the downturn
... 1 point to austrians bc banks dont lend
.... 1 point to austrians because govnt debt is on the verge of failure
.... -1 for keynes bc it gave to wrong impression

to be continued 2010.

Why? They need to rebuild their capital levels after 30 years of declining safeguards and capital ratios.

This is yet another unintended consequence of bailing reckless bankers from their folly. Theior oplace in the economy is so distorted, as to become nearly economically meaningless . . .
bank  lending  2009  2010  recovery  recession  rational  irrational  creditline  creditcrunch  psychology  credit  usa  humor  fed  incentive  treasuries  capital  ratio  treasury  freemarkets  distortion  battle-for-the-world-economy  battle-of-ideas  distorted  economic  economy  debt  government  battle  keynes  Keynesianism  liberal  bailout  consequences  2011  2012  depression 
december 2009 by asterisk2a
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