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FiveThirtyEight.com: Electoral Projections Done Right: McCain and Michigan
"It's annoying that intrade just lists the EV totals, since what we're really interested in is probabilities of each candidate winning.

I've put together a tool that takes the Intrade state-by-state prices and runs them through a Monte Carlo sim like the one used here (mine uses 100,000 runs instead of 10,000 because I'm more manly). You can see the results here:

http://xkcd.com/intrade "
elections  obama  mccain  democrats  republicans  campaigns  data  information  polls 
october 2008 by allaboutgeorge
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