Kirk510620 + war   106

Saving Colombia’s peace agreement | The Economist
ast time Colombians voted in a plebiscite was in 1957, when they approved the formation of the National Front, a power-sharing pact between the two dominant political parties, the Liberals and the Conservatives, to end decades of partisan violence. That agreement worked for a while. But by excluding other forces it spurred the creation of groups that sought power through violence, including the FARC. The lesson of Mr Santos’s referen
columbia  TheEconomist  war  peace 
october 2016 by Kirk510620
‘We Have No Idea What War Is’
Rosa Brooks discusses her tenure at the Pentagon, and the ever-expanding role of the American military.
law  military  war  TheAtlantic  terrorism  RosaBrooks  wot  drone  peace 
august 2016 by Kirk510620
The world v the Donald
al disputes. Instead of struggling to stop mighty China from taking over contested islands in the South China Sea, might the Philippines and Vietnam cash them in? Nigeria is still seething over a verdict in 2002 by the International Court of Justice handing the Bakassi peninsula to Cameroon; it would have been far more efficient to buy out Cameroon’s claim. Russia could formalise its annexation of Crimea by helping to pay off some of Ukraine’s debts, possibly raising the money for this by agreeing to hand eastern Karelia, which it conquered in the second world war, back to Finland (in the early 1990s Boris Yeltsin reportedly offered the territory for $15 billion). Japan might take a similar interest in the Kuril Islands and oil-producing southern Sakhalin, which it lost to Stalin.

Lastly, there’s access to the sea. Landlocked Bolivia could pay Chile in gas to acquire a Pacific port, an old yearning. Botswana’s trade would boom if it bought a corridor to the sea from Namibia.
foreignpolicy  countries  war  climatechange  naturalresources  TheEconomist  future  economics  history 
august 2016 by Kirk510620
Steven Pinker explains how capitalism is killing war - Vox
the general style of punditry and analysis both in journalism and the government is event- and anecdote-driven, rather than trend- and data-driven. And we know from cognitive psychology — Daniel Kahneman and others — that people are overly impressed by big, noisy, memorable events as compared to slow, systemic trends. The natural tendency is to go with what you read this morning.
vox  capitalism  russia  foreignpolicy  war  violence  coldwar  security  election2016 
february 2016 by Kirk510620
Inside the CIA Red Cell | Foreign Policy
discussions among readers within the [intelligence community]. In addition, we receive a good number of requests for Red Cell products from a diverse set of senior policymakers, suggesting that Red Cell products spark interest and are useful.” Another recent Red Cell member described the unit’s “hit rate” — meaning having an impact on policymakers’ thinking — at “50/50.” The member observed, “If [policymakers] like us too much, we’re failing at our mission.” Providing a similar assessment, Michael Morell, who read hundreds of Red Cell products before he retired in 2013 as the acting CIA director, described the unit as resembling a home-run hitter for whom you learn to live with the strikeouts. “For every seven duds, you get three brilliant pieces. So you have to learn to live with the duds and not try to smother [the Red Cell] with traditional oversight that would kill its creativity.” This batting average far surpasses the impressions that mainline analysis customarily has on senior officials. Of course, whether any Red Cell product compels officials and policymakers to change their minds or policies remains completely up to them. The point of red teams that do alternative analysis, like the Red Cell, is that they provide decision-makers a unique perspective that they would otherwise never receive.
FP  intelligencecommunity  alternativeanalysis  cia  9/11  terrorism  war 
november 2015 by Kirk510620
Stopping China Would Take 2/3 of U.S. Air Power | War Is Boring
AND points out that the Pentagon has more and better fighters than China — and superior pilots, too. But over Taiwan, geography favors the People’s Liberation Army. “China does not need to catch up fully to the United States to challenge the U.S. ability to conduct effective military operations near the Chinese mainland.”
WarIsBoring  military  usaf  navy  china  war  rand 
october 2015 by Kirk510620
Step by Step, Here’s How to Defeat China in War | War Is Boring
tant interdiction The distant interdiction pillar involves a maritime interdiction effort aimed specifically against ships bound for China with energy cargoes, particularly oil, refined oil products and coal.
military  war  warisboring  navy  china  interdiction 
september 2015 by Kirk510620
Are progressive taxes an artifact of war? - Vox
enty of anecdotal historical evidence for this proposition. The first federal income tax proposal came during the War of 1812, and one was implemented briefly during the Civil War. While the Progressive Era brought a renewed push, and the 16th Amendment and an accompanying income tax law were passed four years before US entry into World War I, it wasn't until the US joined the conflict that the tax's scale expanded to modern levels. "The War Revenue Act of 1917 dramatically raised the stakes for the rich," Londoño Vélez writes, "increasing the top marginal income tax rate from 15 percent to 67 percent, and 77 percent shortly thereafter." World War I also greatly expanded the French income tax; in 1920, to help pay for reconstruction, the top rate grew from 2 percent to 50 percent. But the crux of Londoño Vélez's argument is quantitative. She compiled data on top income tax rates for sixteen rich, developed countries, and pairs it with data on mass mobilizations for war. A mass mobilization, for these purposes, is defined as a point in time in which 2 percent or more of the country's population is in military service. For many countries in the sample, World Wars I and II were the only mass mobilizations. The US had Korea as well, fascist Italy did a mass mobilization amidst the Great Depression in 1935, and South Korea had three mobilizations from 1965 to 1970 (as well as the Korean war). Londoño Vélez found that "no country had high taxes on the rich before the advent of war, with [the] top rate rarely exceeding 10 percent … the Wars created substantial income tax progressivity, with periods of mass war mobilization coinciding with significant rises in the top income tax rate." There is, she concludes, "a strong and statistically significant effect of mass mobilization for war on the top rate." A number of competing explanations, by contrast, seem to not have a significant effect on the top rate, including universal male suffrage, overall affluence, and whether or not the country had a left-leaning government. A
ww1  ww2  tax  vox  europe  war  KoreanWar 
march 2015 by Kirk510620
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