HispanicPundit + monetary   178

Housing bubble and hot money: Foreign capital pushed American house prices up.
The interesting thing about the American case is that you didn't really have the "surge of optimism" phase of the story. Instead you had a number of countries, led by China, who were trying to maintain a positive trade balance by having their central banks buy U.S.-issued, dollar-denominated bonds. Chinese companies were selling goods to the United States, and instead of spending the dollars they earned on American goods they were sending the money back as mortgage loans. So Chinese industrial policy ended up inflating a housing bubble in the United States
china  monetary  Fed  greenspan  yglesias 
november 2013 by HispanicPundit
Krugman's Call for a Housing Bubble - Daniel J. Sanchez - Mises Daily
On how Krugman was clearly calling for a housing bubble at a time when we should NOT be pushing for a housing bubble...but now that he got what he wanted, he backs down.
mises  bubbles  krugman  sidebar  monetary 
march 2013 by HispanicPundit
TheMoneyIllusion » The anti-Friedman
Often Fed announcements are close to expectations, and the market reaction is muted.  But when there is a big surprise, the market reaction is exactly the opposite of what the Cochrane explanation would predict.  Markets are Friedmanites, not Cochranites.  Markets favor monetary stimulus when recent NGDP growth has put the line far below trend.  That’s not to say markets always favor easy money, high inflation hurt stocks in the 1970s.  Rather that they favor easy money when Milton Friedman would have favored easy money.  David Glasner has documented this pattern in a study that examines the time-varying correlation between TIPS spreads and equity prices.
sidebar  sumner  emh  monetary  monetarism  friedman  cochrane 
september 2012 by HispanicPundit
TheMoneyIllusion » The pitfalls of using common sense
Money illusion is one of my few concessions to the behavioral economists.  I wish it weren’t there—it makes our models much uglier and it causes enormous human suffering.  But wishing it weren’t there doesn’t make it go away. ”The world is as it is.”  Between mid-2008 and mid-2009, NGDP fell about 9% below trend, while wages kept chugging along at roughly trend.  That’s a really big problem.  Although unemployment has since fallen from 10% to 8.2%, wages still haven’t entirely caught up to that massive demand shock.
sidebar  sumner  behavioral  wages  labor  monetary  inflation 
july 2012 by HispanicPundit
Miles Kimball on Potential Housing Bubble Remedies
.a price boom is a great time to pare back or eliminate unwise subsidies like the home mortgage interest tax deduction. This is actually something the Bush administration did with a tax-reform commission in 2005, which gave Democrats the opportunity to complain. Then Republicans in Congress and the White House rapidly abandoned it. But a good idea. Kimball also says you could enact regulatory restrictions on low down-payment mortgages. That is definitely a good idea, although again one wonders what the political constituency is. Person A wants to sell a house, Person B wants to buy a house, and a bank wants to lend Person B the money to buy the house from Person A. But the government is going to step in and say it can't be done? Seems unfair! But absolutely, yes, if possible allowable leverage ratios should be countercyclical. Third is the idea of more systematic reform of how mortgage finance works.
sidebar  mortgageinterestdeduction  yglesias  Kimball  bush  fed  monetary  bubbles  financialcrisis 
july 2012 by HispanicPundit
The Death of Inflation Targeting | Jeff Frankels Weblog | Views on the Economy and the World
While the lack of response to asset market bubbles was probably the biggest failing of Inflation Targeting, another major setback was inappropriate responses to supply shocks and terms of trade shocks. An economy is healthier if monetary policy responds to an increase in the world prices of its exported commodities by tightening enough to appreciate the currency. But CPI targeting instead tells the central bank to appreciate in response to an increase in the world price of the imported commodities — exactly the opposite of accommodating the adverse shift in the terms of trade. For example, it is widely suspected that the reason for the otherwise-puzzling decision of the European Central Bank to raise interest rates in July 2008, as the world was sliding into the worst recession since the 1930s, was that oil prices were just then reaching an all-time high. Oil prices get a substantial weight in the CPI, so stabilizing the CPI when dollar oil prices go up requires appreciating
inflation  monetary  friedman  frankel  sidebar 
may 2012 by HispanicPundit
Panics Happen - NYTimes.com
Walter Bagehot knew all about financial crises, which have been a constant feature of modern economies since at least the early 19th century. Just to drive the point home, I thought it might be worth posting Gary Gorton’s chart (pdf) of “panics” before the Fed went into operation:
monetary  fed  history  usa  krugman  sidebar 
may 2012 by HispanicPundit
Ideas: The Price of Money
f the price of an apple is fifty cents, that means that if I give a seller fifty cents he will give me an apple in exchange. If the interest rate is five percent and that is the price of money, I ought to be able to buy money for five cents on the dollar. I doubt that Congdon, or anyone else, will be willing to sell it to me at that price.

The price of money is what you have to give up to get it—the inverse of the price level. If the price of an apple is fifty cents, the price of a dollar is two apples. The interest rate is the rent on money, measured in money. A change in the price of money affects both the money you are renting and the money you are paying as rent, leaving the ratio of the two unchanged.
monetary  fundamentals  friedman  monetarism  sidebar 
november 2011 by HispanicPundit
The Size of Monetary Stimulus vs. the Length of Monetary Stimulus, Bryan Caplan | EconLog | Library of Economics and Liberty
In short, if you think that boosting nominal income is the cure for recession, here's yet another reason to prefer monetary to fiscal stimulus.  One burst of expansionary monetary policy increases nominal income forever.  One burst of expansionary fiscal policy increases nominal income for as long as the extra spending continues.  At best.
monetary  fiscal  fundamentals  cowen  caplan  sidebar 
september 2011 by HispanicPundit
Economics One: Debating History and Policy with Reich and Krugman
No one can deny that the 1930s and the 1970s were tough decades for the economy.   And job creation in the expansions of the 1980s and 1990s was amazing: There were two long expansions in the 1980s and 1990s: 1982-1990 and 1991-2001. In November 1982—the start of the1980s expansion—total non-farm payroll employment was 88,770 according to BLS historical statistics. In March 2001, the peak of the 1991-2001 expansion, it was 132,500. The difference in those 220 month was 43,730, about 44 million.  There is no other 220 month period in the post war period where so many jobs were created. Note that this is not just the Reagan expansion; it includes all of the Clinton years.

And as the following graph illustrates the 1980s and 1990s were a period of “stable and sustained growth.” In fact because of the stable and sustained growth the period is called the Great Moderation which has been documented by many economists. Here is the Wikipedia entry which uses the same chart and contains many re
reagan  brentonwoods  jobs  monetary  krugman  taylor  sidebar  graphs 
august 2011 by HispanicPundit
TheMoneyIllusion » Krugman was wrong about Switzerland
I love the Swiss. They’ve shown that even at the zero bound a determined central bank can hit its macro targets without any help at all from fiscal stimulus. There’s no zero bound on exchange rates. And as Ben Bernanke has repeatedly emphasized, the Fed isn’t even close to being out of ammo–they’ve got lots of tools that they haven’t yet even tried.
monetary  fiscal  krugman  sumner  switzerland  sidebar 
july 2011 by HispanicPundit
Inflation or Unemployment? - Megan McArdle - Business - The Atlantic
In order to keep unemployment low, you have to essentially out-inflate peoples' expectations. In other words, I don't think you can get permanently lower unemployment by pushing inflation to 4%--you'd need to push it to 4%, and then ever-higher. And even that will eventually fail, because people will start expecting that you'll out-inflate even their expecations--and then you've got hyperinflation.
inflation  labor  monetary  mcardle  sidebar 
may 2011 by HispanicPundit
Yglesias » Bretton Woods And The Impossible Trinity
This is one reason why I’ve grown impatient with nostalgia for the good old days of the Bretton-Woods system.This system, which really was working great in its heyday, essentially involved the United States playing precisely the role that we now reject. The dollar was pegged to gold, other currencies were pegged to the dollar, foreign countries could change the dollar price of their currencies, and we couldn’t reset the value of the dollar. This worked fine as a means of facilitating catch-up growth in Japan and Western Europe but that growth make it impossible to sustain, so it wasn’t sustained and there’s no practical method of bringing it back.
brentonwoods  monetary  krugman  yglesias  sidebar 
may 2011 by HispanicPundit
Greenspan and Unemployment - NYTimes.com
In the process, Mr. Greenspan helped demonstrate that unemployment could fall lower than many economists had believed without setting off inflation. The late 1990s remain the only sustained period over the past 35 years when incomes rose at a healthy rate all across the income spectrum. The jobless rate, at its nadir, was below 4 percent.
greenspan  labor  monetary  inflation  Clinton  leonhardt  economix  sidebar 
march 2011 by HispanicPundit
Are High Food Prices Due to the Fed?, David Henderson | EconLog | Library of Economics and Liberty
On Judge Napolitano's "Freedom Watch" on March 25, Austrian economist Bob Murphy claimed that the unrest in the Middle East was due to rising food prices which in turn are due to the Fed printing money. I'm not sure about the rising food price/political unrest issue--that could well be true. But I'm pretty sure that the Fed printing money/rising food prices link is weak. When the Fed prints money, that raises the dollar prices of goods. But why would it raise the prices to people in the Middle East. All other things equal, the dollar would adjust downward and the prices of food to people in the Middle East would stay the same.
monetary  dollar  food  price  austrian  henderson  sidebar 
march 2011 by HispanicPundit
Yglesias » Stagnation and Monetary Policy
Similarly, until 1980 or so the economy sometimes had bouts of inflation that the Fed had to control by raising interest rates and throttling growth. Since 1980, that’s never really happened. Consequently, the boom/bust cycle now alternates much less frequently than it used to. But the Fed obviously hasn’t learned how to prevent recessions from happening. We had a severe one around 1990, a mild one around 2000, and a very severe one just recently. The problem here isn’t that eliminating the inflation problem is a bad thing, any more than eliminating period of dearth is a bad thing. But if people never go hungry and sometimes overeat, the result will be rising obesity. If the economy never overheats but sometimes underperforms then average unemployment rates will be higher (which, as you can see above, is the case) and workers who lack unique skills will suffer.
BrentonWoods  wages  monetary  inflation  labor  yglesias  sidebar 
march 2011 by HispanicPundit
DeLong vs Cowen
Should you borrow more when interest rates are low? A debate.
monetary  debates  deficits  fiscal  cowen  DeLong  roberts  sidebar 
march 2011 by HispanicPundit
Gibson on Gold, David Henderson | EconLog | Library of Economics and Liberty
San Jose State University economist Warren Gibson has an excellent article, "Gold and Money," in the latest Freeman. He lists a number of claims about gold, both positive and negative, and proceeds to do a "True, False, Uncertain, with explanation" treatment of each. In the process, he lays out a concise history of monetary policy in the United States, pointing out one of the most harmful government interventions that "helped" put the "Great" in Great Depression: the ban on branch banking.

I had known most of what was in there but I've never seen it so nicely done in such a short space. His article would be an excellent reading in a Money and Banking or American Economic History course.
gold  monetary  freeMan  henderson  sidebar 
february 2011 by HispanicPundit
Economics One: Learning From Monetary Mistakes and Doritonomics
The lesson for central bankers from the financial crisis is straightforward: do not deviate from policies like the ones that worked well during much of the 1980s and 1990s. It was such a deviation--in the form of low interest rates compared with what good existing policy practice suggested--that was behind the excessive risk taking and housing booms in many countries as OECD research has shown. The chart below was published by the OECD before the problems in Greece, Ireland and Spain became so evident. I used it in my book Getting Off Track published two years ago. It predicts amazingly well which countries would suffer most from the low interest rate policy. That's the message of several talks I am giving in Europe this week
FinancialCrisis  monetary  taylor  subprimeCause  sidebar 
february 2011 by HispanicPundit
Yglesias » The Wage Decline
"But I think that progressive discussions of this phenomenon wind up overcomplicating things when contemplating the causes. Over the past 30 years the Federal Reserve has proven itself to be much better at preventing inflationary episodes than at preventing recessions. There’s no long-term tradeoff between inflation and unemployment. A perfect central bank should be able to produce full employment and price stability all the time. But no real central bank is perfect. And what the Fed has done for 30 years is err on the side of letting aggregate demand get too low. Sluggish median compensation growth is a straightforward consequence of this decision. "
inequality  wages  monetary  blinder  yglesias  sidebar 
december 2010 by HispanicPundit
Quantitative Easing, Here and There - Megan McArdle - Business - The Atlantic
"The fact is, at this point there's only one way our current account deficit is coming into balance, short of the US savings rate shooting up to 20%: our currency is going to have to depreciate. That's going to mean inflation for countries that peg their currency to the dollar; for commodities that are denominated in dollars; and for countries like China, that insist on manipulating their exchange rate to keep their currency cheap against the dollar. Whatever the special responsibilities America has, they do not include running a massive current account deficit until the trade imbalances finally trigger another financial crisis."
monetary  china  dollar  mcardle  sidebar 
november 2010 by HispanicPundit
The Sumnerian Missionary, Bryan Caplan | EconLog | Library of Economics and Liberty
""I don't think conservatives realized it at the time, but I (and a few other quasi-monetarists) had the strongest argument against fiscal stimulus in late 2008 and early 2009. We said; "Yes, stimulus is needed, but monetary stimulus is much more effective and less costly than deficit spending." At the time, most on the left argued that monetary stimulus wouldn't work if rates were near zero. Well rates are still near zero, and many of those same liberals are now insisting that the Fed is responsible for fixing the AD shortfall. They've come over to our side."
fiscalstimulus09  liberalism  government  monetary  sumner  caplan  sidebar 
november 2010 by HispanicPundit
Milton Friedman and the Phillips Curve, Arnold Kling | EconLog | Library of Economics and Liberty
"Except that the Phillips Curve did not die. I encountered it just the other day. As for Friedman, there is a fight going on between those who think that he would support the current monetary expansion (e.g., David Beckworth) and others who vehemently disagree (e.g., John Taylor).

On this purely hypothetical issue, I think I side with Taylor. I don't think Friedman would argue for trying to undo a monetary mistake by making a mistake in the opposite direction. If there is no Phillips Curve going forward, then a monetary expansion now will cause more inflation without reducing unemployment. "
inflation  friedman  monetary  krugman  sidebar 
november 2010 by HispanicPundit
TheMoneyIllusion » Case closed: Milton Friedman would have favored monetary stimulus
"Friedman would have understood that the financial crisis was a special case that led to a rush for liquidity and safety, and a temporary fall in M2 velocity. He would have seen the low interest rates and low TIPS spreads as indicators of tight money. He would have favored temporarily allowing higher M2 growth to offset the low velocity, until the economy was back to normal. Somehow modern conservatives seem to merely recall the bumper sticker message “stable money growth” but overlook the nuanced and highly sophisticated monetary analysis that made Milton Friedman an intellectual giant."
friedman  monetary  financialcrisis  sumner  sidebar 
september 2010 by HispanicPundit
Frum: Five Books on Intellectual Conservatism | FrumForum
How Friedman's "A Monetary History of the United States" paved the way for conservativism and Reagan
conservatives  Reagan  monetary  friedman  books  frum  sidebar 
august 2010 by HispanicPundit
TheMoneyIllusion » The Good Old Chicago School: RIP
"Although Friedman is best known for his advocacy of targeting the money supply, he was even more strongly attached to the idea of market efficiency. In the 1990s he endorsed Robert Hetzel’s proposal to have the Fed target inflation expectations in the TIPS market. Now if only we could find an economist who is willing to carry on the tradition of Milton Friedman. Low interest rates are a sign of tight money, and we need to target inflation forecasts, not interest rates. Who will resurrect the old Chicago School?"
monetary  friedman  chicago  Rajan  krugman  sumner  sidebar 
june 2010 by HispanicPundit
Why Are Interest Rates Low?, Arnold Kling | EconLog | Library of Economics and Liberty
"Sumner, Krugman, DeLong, and Rajan are acting as if macroeconomic stability is the main policy issue. My view is that the policy makers in fact are focused on bank stability first and foremost. Policy makers tell us, and tell themselves, that the key to macroeconomic stability is bank stability. That is one story. My story is that they are less able and less motivated to bring down the unemployment rate than they are to prop up banks."
monetary  sumner  delong  Krugman  Rajan  kling  sidebar 
june 2010 by HispanicPundit
The Fed and the Euro, Bryan Caplan | EconLog | Library of Economics and Liberty
"CNBC says that Ron Paul blames the Fed's loose money for the Euro's troubles. Umm, doesn't expansionary Fed policy raise the value of the Euro? Is there any mechanism under which this makes sense? Or is Paul's view being misstated? "
monetary  euro  RonPaul  caplan  sidebar 
may 2010 by HispanicPundit
A Keynesian in China « ThinkMarkets
The conclusions the Keynesian world view leads to.
china  monetary  keynes  krugman  rizzo  sidebar 
january 2010 by HispanicPundit
TheMoneyIllusion » The silly multiplier “debate”
"So if the Fed is doing its job, which means if it is always targeting expected AD growth at what it sees as the optimal rate, then it will try to completely offset fiscal stimulus and the expected fiscal multiplier will be precisely zero. That’s why fiscal stimulus almost disappeared from graduate textbooks in recent years".
fiscalStimulus09  fiscal  monetary  Sumner  sidebar 
october 2009 by HispanicPundit
Government makes things better (sometimes) | Free exchange | Economist.com
"The authors estimate the length and severity of recessions in two periods: from 1875 to 1918 and from 1920 to 2007. In the earlier period, real output declines by 7.8% on average during recessions. The average recession has a duration of 6 quarters, and the average expansion lasts 8.3 quarters. During the period from 1920 to 2007, the average decline in real output during recession is estimated to be 5.9%. Recessions last 4.5 quarters on average, while expansions last 17.7 quarters. Downturns before the establishment of a lender of last resort are longer, deeper, and more frequent than they are after."
fdr  financialcrisis  monetary  fiscal  history  economist  sidebar 
september 2009 by HispanicPundit
Marginal Revolution: Scott Sumner's visit
"in sum Scott believes that easier money at the critical turning point would have made a big difference. I have a few observations"
monetary  FinancialCrisis  Sumner  cowen  sidebar 
september 2009 by HispanicPundit
Marginal Revolution: Were the bailouts a good idea?
"If another big negative shock comes the government's liability position still could turn out to be much worse. But if we stop and click pause and evaluate the policy today -- the answer to my question is "yes, the bailouts were a good idea.""
bailouts  friedman  monetary  FinancialCrisis  cowen  sidebar 
september 2009 by HispanicPundit
TheMoneyIllusion » What would Milton Friedman say?
"Toward the end of his life Friedman was clearly moving away from monetarism and toward what in the 1980s was known as the “New Monetary Economics.” That is, a monetary policy based on efficient markets theory, not central planning. A policy focused on directly stabilizing the (expected) value of money, rather than stabilizing its quantity and hoping for the best."
friedman  monetary  FinancialCrisis  subprimeCause  Sumner  sidebar 
september 2009 by HispanicPundit
Posner and Greenspan face off - Megan McArdle
Debating Greenspan's role in the financial crisis. "I have to disagree with Judge Posner on a substantive point: the power of short term interest rates is not nearly as powerful as he implies".
FinancialCrisis  subprimeCause  monetary  posner  greenspan  mcardle  sidebar 
september 2009 by HispanicPundit
Maybe this is why the Fed is unpopular | Free exchange | Economist.com
"...it would be supremely ironic if Mr Bernanke, just a few years after congratulating Mr Friedman for having arrived at perhaps the most important economic lesson of the past century, repeated the error Mr Friedman and Ms Schwartz identified."
monetary  financialcrisis  subprimeCause  Sumner  bernanke  economist  sidebar 
september 2009 by HispanicPundit
Did Big Government Save Us From a Second Great Depression? - Megan McArdle
"Paul Krugman says yes. I think he might be right, though counterfactuals are tricky. Most countries that have financial crises don't end up mired in a decade-long depression, even with remarkably crappy policy. The question remains, what kind of Big Government? It wasn't the stimulus, which has barely started. Rather, we did three things differently than we did in 1932"
government  fiscalstimulus09  macro  monetary  financialcrisis  krugman  mcardle  sidebar 
august 2009 by HispanicPundit
David Wessel on Ben Bernanke’s Recession Fight - WSJ.com
"Most of all, he knows he has kept a public vow he made in 2002 to Milton Friedman, the scholar who pinned the Great Depression on the mistakes of the Fed in the 1920s and 1930s. “Regarding the Great Depression,” Mr. Bernanke said to the 90-year-old Nobel laureate. “You’re right, we did it. We’re very sorry. But thanks to you, we won’t do it again.”"
fed  monetary  friedman  bernanke  wsj  sidebar 
july 2009 by HispanicPundit
Dr. Doom Has Some Good News - The Atlantic (July/August 2009)
Roubini likes the progress so far but at the same time admits that the monetary solution to future bubbles is difficult but acts like its easy.
Roubini  obamaAdministration  fiscalStimulus09  monetary  greenspan  bernanke  AtlanticMonthly  sidebar 
june 2009 by HispanicPundit
CARPE DIEM: Inflation Smackdown: Laffer vs. Blinder
"Both the bond market data showing contained expectations of inflation at around 2%, and the commercial banking data showing declining loan volume, seem to support Blinder's position more than Laffer's. I'm leaning toward Blinder's position for now. Inflation is not any kind of "clear and present danger," at least not yet. "
inflation  monetary  Laffer  blinder  perry  sidebar 
june 2009 by HispanicPundit
Matthew Yglesias » DeLong Defends Alan Greenspan
"Alan Greenspan’s come under a lot of retroactive criticism for having kept interest rates so low in the wake of the tech stock crash in order to help spark the housing boom that’s now come undone. Brad DeLong considers the issue of whether or not this is a fair criticism, and comes down tentatively on Greenspan’s side. I tend to agree with Brad about this."
greenspan  monetary  subprimeCause  DeLong  FinancialCrisis  yglesias  sidebar 
june 2009 by HispanicPundit
Sumner: An Embarassment of Riches, Bryan Caplan | EconLog | Library of Economics and Liberty
Sumners on inflation, Krugman, Laffer, monetary policy, taxes on the rich and the movement to reduce taxes.
inflation  monetary  laffer  taxes  Reagan  Sumner  caplan  sidebar 
june 2009 by HispanicPundit
Ezra Klein - Should We Worry About The Chinese?
How much of our debt the Chinese really hold - in context.
china  monetary  deficits  budget  klein  sidebar 
june 2009 by HispanicPundit
Bloggingheads.tv - Financial Pneumonia
Mark Thoma and Scott Sumner discuss causes and policy of financial crisis. Alot either to deep for my understanding or common sense.
FinancialCrisis  subprimeCause  thoma  Sumner  monetary  bloggingheads  sidebar 
june 2009 by HispanicPundit
This Changes Nothing, Bryan Caplan | EconLog | Library of Economics and Liberty
"...before we follow Arnold and deny the powerful effect of monetary policy on nominal variables, we've got to remember that monetary policy has always been subject to Friedman's "long and variable lags.""
FinancialCrisis  keynes  monetary  caplan  sidebar 
may 2009 by HispanicPundit
EconLog Book Club: For a New Liberty, Chapter 9, Bryan Caplan | EconLog | Library of Economics and Liberty
Caplan continues his review of Rothbard's classic book, "For A New Liberty". This one on Chapter 9...the austrian business cycle and its faults.
books  austrian  inflation  monetary  libertarianism  caplan  sidebar 
april 2009 by HispanicPundit
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