HispanicPundit + bernstein   28

More Money in Politics Is Great - Bloomberg
And when it comes to campaign finance, I’m for floors, not ceilings, as long as there’s meaningful disclosure. I’d love to see public financing that would give candidates even in seemingly hopeless districts the chance to run a real campaign. I’d have no problem with allowing unlimited donations on top of that. It’s true that the political-science literature stresses that most campaign spending is subject to diminishing returns. And money’s importance is limited by other (largely unrestricted) campaign resources, such as volunteer hours and expertise.

But in large part I agree with the Supreme Court doctrine that campaign spending is a form of speech, and therefore shouldn’t be limited under the First Amendment. And because self-government is important to us, I think it’s fine to spend a lot of money on it.
CampaignReform  bernstein  bloomberg 
november 2018 by HispanicPundit
What Friday’s big stock sell-off reveals about our dominant economic model - The Washington Post
At least three reasons: profit margins, inflation and the Federal Reserve. Equity prices reflect current and future expectations of corporate profitability, and I just pointed out that the dominant business model for years has had, at its core, the suppression of labor costs to boost profit margins. The success of the model can be seen in the figures below. The chart on the left shows the decline in labor’s share of national income; the one on the right shows the profit margin of firms in the Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index. Faster wage growth threatens to rebalance these inequalities. That would be great for the vast majority who depend on paychecks vs. stock portfolios, but it spooks markets.
TrumpEconomy  Bernstein 
february 2018 by HispanicPundit
JB on Brad DeLong’s Vox piece on trade deals and trade | Jared Bernstein | On the Economy
Let me start by asserting my firm belief, shared with Brad and many others, in trade’s positive net benefits, and not just for us but for our trading partners, especially emerging economies who raise their living standards by trading with rich countries.
free-trade  bernstein 
february 2017 by HispanicPundit
More on the non-mystery of non-work: Germany v. US | Jared Bernstein | On the Economy
I say before we go to the shaming place, let’s get the policy right. The third figure shows a clear cyclical response to ups and down in job opportunities around the negative trend, and here I show that the cyclical responsiveness has increased over time. That sense to me, given that our welfare system has shifted more towards in-work benefits. While disability insurance often gets raised in this context, the highly regarded CEA report on this topic assigned less than 10% of the decline in prime-age male work to the disability rolls.
jobs  disability  bernstein 
october 2016 by HispanicPundit
Bold, smart, progressive ideas to strengthen Social Security | Jared Bernstein | On the Economy
Expanding compensation subject to Social Security payroll taxes. This would be a big change, but a worthy and a progressive one. The play is “to include fringe benefits such as employer-sponsored health insurance and flexible spending accounts. Fringe benefits are a growing slice of compensation, and including them in Social Security’s tax base would eliminate the discrepancy between those who receive fringe benefits and those who don’t.  Affected workers — who would disproportionately be lower- and middle-income — would pay more in taxes but also receive more in Social Security benefits. Including employer-sponsored health insurance premiums could close over one-third of Social Security’s solvency gap; including other fringe benefits could close [another] one-tenth.”
social-security  bernstein 
october 2016 by HispanicPundit
The non-mystery of declining employment rates for prime-age workers | Jared Bernstein | On the Economy
It is common, for example, to cite the generosity of the Disability Insurance program as a large contributor to the long-term decline in men’s work. But CEA shows that the magnitude of the increase of prime-age men on DI is too small to explain the lion’s share of the decline in work. Over a period where their participation rates fell 7.5 points (1967-2014), CEA finds disability rates go up from 1 to 3 percentage points. Of course, it would be extreme to conclude that none of that increase was warranted by actual disabilities (or conversely, that all of it was warranted). CEA’s analysis assigns less than half a percentage point (out of the 7.5 points just noted) to DI, suggesting it accounts for less than 10 percent of the decline in work.
welfare  disability  labor  bernstein 
september 2016 by HispanicPundit
Bernstein on Inequality | EconTalk | Library of Economics and Liberty
One of the best defenses of the psychological dangers of income inequality i have ever heard. Pretty much destroyed Russ Roberts.
inequality  psychology  bernstein  podcasts  econtalk 
october 2014 by HispanicPundit
The Investor's Manifesto
More to the point, the investment landscape has been so altered that I believe investors will find a fresh perspective useful. The first few chapters are available online, compliments of the good folks at Wiley. And if you just can't help yourself and want to order it online at Amazon.com, then please go ahead, make my day! (Amazon does occasionally run short; in that case, you can order the book at either Barnes and Noble or Borders.)
books  personal-finance  bernstein 
october 2014 by HispanicPundit
Bernstein on the History of Trade | EconTalk | Library of Economics and Liberty
On various 'revisionists' views of history from the Boston Tea Party to the role of free trade in pre-19th century economies.
podcasts  bernstein  trade  history  usa  econtalk 
october 2014 by HispanicPundit
Dr. King and Full Employment…Again | Jared Bernstein | On the Economy
Dr. King, toward the end of his life, clearly recognized the role that full employment played in providing economic opportunity for African-Americans...Essentially, full employment conditions raise the cost of discrimination. It’s “cheap” and easy to discriminate when there are a lot more workers than jobs. But when labor demand outpaces labor supply, racist employers risk leaving profits on the table if they indulge their racism to avoid hiring minorities when they need them to meet demand.The figure plots the ratio of white to black employment rates against the overall unemployment rate. That ratio has never been ‘1’ but a) it’s clearly cyclical, moving up and down with the jobless rate, and b) it hits its low-points when unemployment is very low. Both in the early 1970s and in the latter 1990s, the jobless rate was at or even below the full-employment-unemployment rate (NAIRU), and the white/black employment ratio was at its lowest.
labor  discrimination  bernstein 
march 2014 by HispanicPundit
A Bit of Nuance on the Minimum Wage | Jared Bernstein | On the Economy
But what do I mean by “moderate?” This is Holzer’s other concern: he worries that some of the recent proposals are “immoderate,” i.e., high enough to trigger unintended consequences that could change the favorable benefit/cost equation of the increases we’ve implemented thus far. He may have a point. Historically, increases in the minimum have affected less than 10% of the workforce and that has led me to define “moderate” as raises that have a sweep of this magnitude or less. But some recent proposals have come in above this historically safe benchmark, and Harry is correct to raise an eyebrow.
minimum-wage  bernstein  EITC 
december 2013 by HispanicPundit
A plain blog about politics: No, Starve the Beast Didn't Win
I think that Bruce Bartlett continues to be right about this: starve the beast just doesn't work. The logic of why it doesn't work is that once government spending is decoupled from government revenues (which starve the beast does deliberately, assuming that in the long run there will be a spending-cuts payoff), there is no longer much reason to oppose spending, because it's in effect free. A PAYGO approach, on the other hand, by insisting that every spending increase (or tax cut) be fully paid for within the budget, works just fine.
StarveTheBeast  taxes  government  bartlett  bernstein  sidebar  spending 
august 2011 by HispanicPundit
A plain blog about politics: For Decades Now???
"Decades"? The budget was balanced -- in surplus -- just over one decade ago. Because Congress did, in fact, implement various measures that were passed in the 1990 (bipartisan) and 1993 (partisan) deficit reduction packages. And: "later politicians"? Well, yes, and they even had names, and belonged to a political party: George W. Bush, Tom DeLay, and other Republicans. They didn't so much "dismantle...painful fiscal measures" (although, yeah, they did that too), as that they enacted huge tax cuts. Sort of like the ones that got the budget into a mess in 1981. Which were, you know, also from Republicans.
budget  deficits  republicans  bernstein  sidebar 
july 2011 by HispanicPundit
When You've Got a Hidden Shame
My guess would be that as an overall effect the FNC/shameless strategy is a net minus. When pundits can pick up and drop arguments at the drop of the hat without worrying about long-term consistency, it may make it easier to appear to be winning at any moment, but at the cost of actually fighting for policies they believe in. I don't know; perhaps most of this stuff is only surface-deep and doesn't really have any effect beyond really efficiently conveying to people disposed to agree with conservatives what it is that they're suppose to agree with right now. But the idea that it's a major net plus for conservatives, I think, is unproven and highly unlikely.
FoxNews  conservatives  bernstein  sidebar 
march 2011 by HispanicPundit
A plain blog about politics: Walker, "Koch", and The Virtue of Pathetic Politicians
Nevertheless, he's correct that taking a call doesn't necessarily mean anything at all about whether Walker is likely to do, or even seriously consider, what the person on the other end of the line says. If there's one thing that politicians are trained to do it's to act as if they're listening carefully and respectfully to those they believe are blowhards and cranks.
walker  bernstein  sidebar 
february 2011 by HispanicPundit
A plain blog about politics: Electoral College Advantage
The correct way to check for an electoral college advantage is to see what would happen in tie races by shifting each state equally to reflect a tie result. Up until recently, it turns out that neither party had any kind of advantage in the electoral college.

It is perhaps worth noting that while the college tilted to the Republican in the only modern election in which it actually mattered, since 2000 the college has tilted dramatically to the Democrats. In 2004, John Kerry lost the popular vote by 3% to George W. Bush, but would have won had Ohio, which Bush won by 2.5%, swung to the Democrats (and a universal swing of that size would have brought New Mexico and Iowa with Ohio, leaving Bush with a narrow popular vote lead but a 284-254 electoral college loss).
campaign2012  bernstein  sidebar 
january 2011 by HispanicPundit
A plain blog about politics: Paul Ryan Is Tired of People Taking Him Seriously
Debunking the myth that Obamacare "was written to measure 10 years of tax increases to offset 6 years of new spending."
ObamaCare  bernstein  sidebar 
january 2011 by HispanicPundit
A plain blog about politics: On The Republicans Being Nuts
Basically, the argument would be that while normally parties take positions based on a mix of what party-aligned groups demand, where the median voter is, and what party-aligned idealists want, the Republican Party right now is also affected by a large group of consumers eager to shell out money to the harshest, purist, and most extreme version of "conservative" out there -- which means that the producers of such things are constantly trying to differentiate themselves from moderates. This doesn't dictate all GOP policy positions, but call it a fourth element that has little grounding in any of the factors that normally keep a party firmly tied to reality. Especially if we stretch it and consider purist idealism a form of ideological reality, which at least in my opinion is also missing from a lot of GOP policy positions (that is, they are "conservative" in the sense of being aligned with what Rush or Beck says, but not in the sense of being aligned with ideological conservatism.
republicans  modern-politics  bernstein  sidebar 
january 2011 by HispanicPundit
A plain blog about politics: Beer and Democracy
"Instead, this basically sounds like a typical story of a Member of Congress representing a ("special") interest from his district. Granted, had Carter chosen to fight Conable's bill, it's possible he might have been able to stop it, but perhaps not. Regardless, no one deserves to be called the hero of a story for acquiescing in what the real players did. And apparently the real players here were in Congress, led by Barber Conable."
carter  drugs  regulations  chait  bernstein  sidebar 
december 2010 by HispanicPundit
A plain blog about politics: Supreme Court Nomination Strategy
"Kagan almost certainly did worse than Sotomayor not because of anything having to do with them as Court candidates, but because Barack Obama was far more popular in spring 2009 than in spring 2010. Greenwald supplies a nice Gallup chart showing support for various nominees over the years, and a quick glance reveals that support for nominees appears to be highly correlated with presidential approval levels"
SupremeCourt  Kagan  Sotomayor  polls  greenwald  bernstein  sidebar 
december 2010 by HispanicPundit
A plain blog about politics: Why Do Presidents Do Anything, Anyway, If Voters Don't Care?
"This brings me to a question: if policy innovation entails major risks for presidents and few electoral rewards, why do they bother? Why not just restrict yourself to talking about what a great idea school uniforms are, and call it a day?"
politics  presidency  bernstein  sidebar 
december 2010 by HispanicPundit
Bernstein Smacks Down Greenwald | The New Republic
"The most amusing thing about those on the left and the right who think their party leaders are sell-outs is how unaware they are of their resemblance to each other. The conservative movement is filled with people who think George W. Bush failed to cut spending because he lacked sufficient willpower to demand it. Very few of them understand, say, that Bush had to support some kind of prescription drug bill to win in 2000 and had to follow through on his promise to win in 2004. They believe the problem was that Bush was insufficiently committed to their ideological goals. Time to replace him with a true believer!"
politics  bush  pharmaceuticals  obamaadministration  obamacare  publicoption  greenwald  bernstein  chait  sidebar 
june 2010 by HispanicPundit
A plain blog about politics: Why Presidents Do What They Do
"Now, it's possible that Hillary Clinton would have failed where Obama succeeded. We can't know how adept she would have been at handling the presidency. Perhaps she would have failed to win support of the necessary GOP votes in the Senate for the stimulus, and perhaps that would have killed off the health care effort. Perhaps she would have been considerably less popular than Obama, whose approval ratings have held up fairly well in the face of tough economic times, and that would have killed off health care reform. But those are skills arguments, not arguments about her policy preferences, and of course one can argue that she would have been more, not less, skilled, and therefore passed health care reform more easily (and perhaps even with a public option and other provisions conservatives dislike). I tend to think that she would have been somewhat less adept than Obama, but that's obviously speculative."
ObamaCare  campaign2008  Clinton  obamaAdministration  bernstein  sidebar 
april 2010 by HispanicPundit

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