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All the Brexit you can eat | Richard Seymour on Patreon
To get a parliamentary majority, she and everyone else knows perfectly well that she must drop Tory 'red lines'. She must negotiate seriously with Labour MPs and unions, make real concessions on workers' rights, and offer serious investment to Leave-voting constituencies.

Yes, that means fucking over her own headbanger backbenchers and the DUP. Yes, it risks a schism. Yes, her parliamentary situation is precarious enough. Yes, it means giving something to Jeremy Corbyn. But consider the results of actually securing a deal. Currently, businesses are hoarding a lot of capital. In the last year, we've seen the longest downswing in business investment outside of a recession for fifteen yeas. On top of that, almost a trillion pounds in assets and investments has been withdrawn from the City in fear of a "no deal" Brexit. (They call this 'Brexodus', because of course they do.)

In the event of a deal, even May's dismal deal, all that investment comes flooding back in. Unless the inevitable recession hits before then, it means a significant bump in economic growth in an otherwise weak economy, a bonus for Treasury receipts and a chance for Philip Hammond to relax the purse strings. All that money being set aside for 'no deal' preparations could be handed out to government departments. The Tories would have delivered on an historic mission, the Remoaners would be temporarily marginalised, Labour would be weakened, and May would get quite a lot of cachet from affluent centre-ground voters for standing up to her nutters. I would expect the Conservatives to start polling in the mid-Forties if they achieved that. Given the degree of fragmentation of public opinion on Brexit, any definite resolution would likely be welcomed. That would surely weaken the hand of right-wing splitters.
UK  EU  Brexit  withdrawalAgreement  meaningfulVote  MayTheresa  politics  ERG  ToryParty  redLines  strategy  dctagged  dc:creator=SeymourRichard 
8 days ago by petej
Labour’s Brexit Policy |
To sum up – I started with three simple rival ‘narratives’ of Labour’s underlying position on Brexit. I’ve articulated my own interpretation of Labour’s position, which implies that all of these narratives have something to them. In my view, Labour’s preferred Brexit outcome involves significant breaks with existing EU governance rules. The leadership wants those breaks to be in the area of neoliberal constraints on socialist policy-making; much of the PLP wants those breaks to be in the area of freedom of movement. In a scenario where Labour is in government without the Brexit deal having been concluded, those two categories of negotiating priority will be in tension. Nevertheless, the tension between those two categories of negotiating priority is (I would argue) not as fundamental as the tension between some of the Conservatives’ commitments. Moreover, unlike the Conservatives, Labour have been quite careful not to articulate any commitments that cannot be backed down from towards greater compatibility with existing EU rules. Thus in a scenario in which Labour were negotiating with the EU, I would expect Labour to make an effort to achieve a set of concessions around EU rules, and if those concessions could not be achieved, to capitulate in the direction of a more liberal existing-EU-institutions-aligned position.
UK  EU  Brexit  politics  LabourParty  Remain  Leave  trade  economy  Bennism  Euroscepticism  immigration  borders  freedomOfMovement  customsUnion  singleMarket  ambiguity  tactics  flexibility  ToryParty  redLines  negotiations  strategy 
9 days ago by petej

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