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Why A No-Deal Brexit Is Now Theresa May's Fallback Plan To Save Her Party – And Herself | HuffPost UK
One source says: “She’s been told – ‘You need to understand prime minister, it’s very simple maths – the ERG [European Research Group] will fuck you, fuck the Conservative party and they will throw themselves over a cliff. Your Remainer colleagues will not’. It’s who’s got the biggest balls.”

“The Remainers need a gameplan to show Julian [Smith] is wrong on this. At the moment, they are rolling over having tummies tickled. And she’s thrown all her weight behind the chief whip.

“She gets to save her party and potentially gets to live for another day. She will be the PM who delivered Brexit. She can blame Parliament and Tusk, Juncker and the EU [for no-deal] and say I managed it as best as anyone could.

“She’s home and dry as long as she sits tight with the Brexiteers who only a few weeks ago wanted her head. It’s utterly tragic.”

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“A lot of people are in despair. The sensible ones have their head in their hands, the nutters we kept at the door for 40 odd years are now in control. We thought they were dead after they didn’t get rid of her. They are back in control, because they are willing to blow the house up.”
UK  EU  Brexit  withdrawalAgreement  noDeal  MayTheresa  negotiations  backstop  DUP  meaningfulVote  SmithJulian  LewisBrandon  ToryParty  customsUnion  CorbynJeremy  LancasterHouse  WilkinsChris  FoxLiam  customsArrangement  Chequers  regulatoryAlignment  BradyGraham  amendments  ERG  immigration  Leave  politics 
8 days ago by petej
Ivan Rogers’ Brexit bombshell, digested | Martha Gill | Opinion | The Guardian
There is a contradiction at the heart of the argument made by many of those advocating no deal. They say both that WTO terms are good enough for the UK to trade on, and that Britain’s prosperity depends on it striking multiple trade deals abroad.

Rogers puts it like this: “You cannot simultaneously argue that it is perfectly fine to leave a deep free trade agreement with easily our largest export and import market for the next generation, and trade on WTO terms because that is how we and others trade with everyone else – and argue that it is imperative we get out of the EU in order that we can strike preferential trade deals with large parts of the rest of the world, because the existing terms on which we trade with the rest of the world are intolerable.”
UK  EU  Brexit  negotiations  politics  delusion  sovereignty  agency  power  Article50  transition  EU27  withdrawalAgreement  singleMarket  LancasterHouse  freedomOfMovement  WTO  noDeal  trade  freeTradeAgreement  services  transparency  secrecy  dishonesty  RogersIvan  speech  Liverpool 
9 weeks ago by petej
Not much remains of Theresa May's red lines after the Brexit deal | Dan Roberts | Politics | The Guardian
It states clearly: “In the absence of agreed solutions, the United Kingdom will maintain full alignment with those rules of the internal market and the customs union.” In other words, the UK may not be a member of the single market, or have any direct ability to shape its rules in future, but it could yet have to play by them in perpetuity.
UK  EU  Brexit  negotiations  MayTheresa  LancasterHouse  alignment  singleMarket  customsUnion  ECJ  transition  finance  settlement  obligations  liabilities  politics 
december 2017 by petej
The Death of the British Dream | Vanity Fair
Somehow, May faces no opposition whatsoever and no prospect of it. The simple answer is that M.P.s were stunned by the shock of the referendum result last year and remain intimidated by both the pro-Brexit tabloids and the strength of feeling in the country against immigrants, a feeling that will be familiar to Americans. And yet there is no clear majority for all of this within the U.K. population. A mere 27 percent of the country voted for Brexit and those people were misled by Leavers, including Johnson, who said that Britain would retain access to the single market after leaving the E.U., otherwise known as “soft Brexit.” What May proposes, of course, is a much more dangerous “hard Brexit,” with a giddy aspiration of turning Britain into the Singapore of Northern Europe. Unfortunately, an analysis conducted by JPMorgan suggests that sort of geo-economic strategy could only work if firms have access to markets in their neighborhood—and there is absolutely no guarantee of that.

An economy like Britain, which is increasingly knowledge-based, can survive a great amount of chaos, but it seems certain that the fall of sterling and inflationary pressures will impoverish Britons; that many jobs will be lost; and that a likely dropping off in tax revenues means there will be less money to spend on services, particularly the National Health Service. These are things the the Labor Party, the main opposition, cares deeply about. But, as I have explained before, the party has been paralyzed by a fear of its own supporters, who tend to be nationalistic and fear competition for jobs, homes, and services from European migrants. The grim reality is that the possibility of losing these people to the right-wing UKIP party, or the Conservatives, concerns Labor more than the promised hardships of Brexit, which it anyway calculates may play well for it in the future. And that may be why May can get away with an extreme policy that was never explicitly part of the Leave campaign, and for which there is only minority support.

Until Labor confronts its own supporters, or a new center group materializes to oppose Brexit, Parliament will be powerless in the face of a ruthless conservative coup. I don’t see either happening anytime soon.
MayTheresa  speech  LancasterHouse  UK  EU  Brexit  hardBrexit  politics  Parliament  democracy  Article50  singleMarket  ECJ  freedomOfMovement  customsUnion  trade  immigration  tabloids  opposition  LabourParty 
january 2017 by petej
Welcome to Theresa-land: Brexit Britain getting pissed on from a height
"This morning on Radio 4, David Davis, the minister for Brexit, suggested that if Britain could get through World War Two is can get through Brexit. At least he has the tone of catastrophe right."
UK  EU  Brexit  MayTheresa  LancasterHouse  speech  immigration  freedomOfMovement  nostalgia  borders  Ireland  NorthernIreland  dctagged  dc:creator=ButlerJames 
january 2017 by petej

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