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Nick Timothy is wrong – he is the one who killed Brexit, not Theresa May
I know that looking for self-awareness from Nick Timothy is like looking for moral philosophy from a cow, but hang about: “the week that Brexit was finally killed” was the week of 18 May 2017: when Theresa May launched her manifesto, a politically toxic document that insulted the young, offended the elderly and alienated the middle-aged. The most damaging policy of all was that concerning social care: one authored by Nick Timothy, the object of concern to his co-chief, Fiona Hill, and the then health secretary Jeremy Hunt.

The damage that did to Theresa May’s popularity and to the Conservative campaign was decisive in the election result – which returned a Parliament which will only be able to agree a Norway-type Brexit. That is the clear and inescapable truth of every serious post-mortem of what happened to the Conservative Party in the final weeks of the campaign.

The reason why May can't make this argument personally is that it means returning to the scene of the crime: telling Conservative MPs that not only did her maladroit conduct of the 2017 campaign cost them their majority and the careers of their colleagues and friends, but that it locks them into a Brexit trajectory in which the only available exits are ones that most Conservative MPs fear will be politically disastrous. But if Nick Timothy wants to identify the week that Brexit was “killed”, he should look to the past: and if he wants to know the culprit, he should look in the mirror.
UK  EU  Brexit  withdrawalAgreement  politics  DUP  Ireland  NorthernIreland  borders  Norway  MayTheresa  ToryParty  ge2017  socialCare  manifesto  TimothyNick  dctagged  dc:creator=BushStephen 
december 2018 by petej
General election polling goes geographical: the accuracy and value of constituency-level estimates | British Politics and Policy at LSE
Interesting. Both YouGov and Ashcroft's MRP models did well. Hanretty's bbombed. Nobody picked up the SNP reversion. Q: what does this say about Hanretty's massively consequential leave/remain plot?
hanretty  mrp  statistics  polling  ge2017 
may 2018 by yorksranter
UK Polling Report
the BES data released today – using a random sample and checked against the electoral register – does not find evidence of any increase in turnout among under 25s, thought does find some evidence of an increase in turnout among those between 25 and 44. The boost in youth turnout that people have been using to explain the 2017 elec
polls  turnout  ge2017 
february 2018 by yorksranter
How Tweets Translate into Votes
politicians can claim an extra 1 percent share of the vote by increasing the number of tweets they send out by a factor of between 0.28 and 1.75. That might look like a small increase, but in many districts it would have been decisive. “Around 14% of the electoral competitions which form the basis of our study were won by a margin of less than 5 percentage points, and 4 percent of them were won by a margin of less than 1 percentage point,” say Bright and co.
twitter  russia  elections  ge2017 
december 2017 by yorksranter
Tory-DUP £1bn deal may breach equality duties, says NI rights group | UK news | The Guardian
see also crowd sources lawsuit if DUP deal is constitutional/does not break good friday agreement.
DUP  GE2017 
october 2017 by asterisk2a
Twitter
RT : Here's a map showing the 156 seats in where the "Did Not Votes" out-numbered the votes for the winning MP.…
GE2017  from twitter
october 2017 by freerange_inc
Philip Hammond raises further doubts about May's future as Tory leader | Politics | The Guardian
The Sunday Times reported at the weekend that Hammond, Boris Johnson, David Davis and Amber Rudd were involved in feverish plotting to replace May immediately after her snap election gamble in June failed to deliver the promised Tory majority.

When asked repeatedly whether he believed May should lead the party into the next election, Hammond insisted the issue was separate from the immediate question of leading the UK through the Brexit talks.
Brexit  Theresa  May  GE2017  Philip  Hammond  David  Davis  Amber  Rudd  Boris  Johnson  Tories  nasty  party  Conservative 
september 2017 by asterisk2a

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