decision_making   1294

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BBC - Future - What the 'meat paradox' reveals about moral decision making
RD's note : people also take upon themselves that they are not morally perfect...
ethics  Decision_Making 
11 days ago by RobertDaoust
Cake shop management cannot suffice for a modern economy.
Feb 28, 2019 | Kaieteur News | Columnists, Peeping Tom.

Cake shop management cannot suffice for a modern economy.

The style of governance since political Independence has not been conducive to development. It is ill-suited for modernization. Given the expansive nature of relations and issues which governments have to address, there is a need for greater devolution of power. Centralized government can no longer cope with the multiple, overlapping and multilayered aspects of governance.......Guyana, however, is going in the opposite direction. The more modern the bureaucracy, the more swollen and overstaffed it becomes. The more complex government becomes, the more centralized is decision-making. The greater demands on resources, the bigger the bureaucracy.
The public bureaucracy is now a cancer. It is sucking the life out of public administration. Merely keeping this inefficient and revenue-guzzling monstrosity alive is costing taxpayers in excess of 500 million dollars per day. This is wanton wastage. That money could have been put to help boost private sector development to create jobs for the thousands of young people who are unemployed. The more the government implements technology, the more inefficient it becomes. It is all part of what is known as cake shop management........Guyana is going to continue to be left behind the rest of the world. It has seen Guyana retrogress and we will always be in a fire fighting mode rather than ensuring forward thinking and planning. A country today simply cannot be run like a cake shop. The world is too modern, and too many things are taking place to allow for such a style of governance. Once the policy is made by the government, the mechanics should be left to lower level officials who should be held accountable for ensuring its implementation and who should be held responsible for any failures........What is required is for faster decision-making so as to allow for the multitasking.........Plantain chips and breadfruit chips and other small businesses cannot make the economy grow. It cannot generate the massive jobs needed to impact on unemployment. It will not lift large numbers out of poverty. This is catch-hand approach to helping poor people.
Cake shop management cannot run a modern economy. Never has; never will.
bureaucracies  centralization  centralized_control  complexity  decision_making  devolution  Guyana  inefficiencies  modernization  policymaking  public_sector  public_servants  technology  traffic_congestion  forward-thinking  multitasking  decentralization  digital_economy  governance  knowledge_economy 
17 days ago by jerryking
Trump call with Turkish leader led to US pullout from Syria - AP, Dec 21, 2018
President Donald Trump’s decision to withdraw American troops from Syria was made hastily, without consulting his national security team or allies, and over strong objections from virtually everyone involved in the fight against the Islamic State group, according to U.S. and Turkish officials.

Pompeo, Mattis and other members of the national security team prepared a list of talking points for Trump to tell Erdogan to back off, the officials said.

But the officials said Trump, who had previously accepted such advice and convinced the Turkish leader not to attack the Kurds and put U.S. troops at risk, ignored the script. Instead, the president sided with Erdogan.

In the following days, Trump remained unmoved by those scrambling to convince him to reverse or at least delay the decision to give the military and Kurdish forces time to prepare for an orderly withdrawal.

“The talking points were very firm,” said one of the officials, explaining that Trump was advised to clearly oppose a Turkish incursion into northern Syria and suggest the U.S. and Turkey work together to address security concerns. “Everybody said push back and try to offer (Turkey) something that’s a small win, possibly holding territory on the border, something like that.”

Erdogan, though, quickly put Trump on the defensive, reminding him that he had repeatedly said the only reason for U.S. troops to be in Syria was to defeat the Islamic State and that the group had been 99 percent defeated. “Why are you still there?” the second official said Erdogan asked Trump, telling him that the Turks could deal with the remaining IS militants.

With Erdogan on the line, Trump asked national security adviser John Bolton, who was listening in, why American troops remained in Syria if what the Turkish president was saying was true, according to the officials. Erdogan’s point, Bolton was forced to admit, had been backed up by Mattis, Pompeo, U.S. special envoy for Syria Jim Jeffrey and special envoy for the anti-ISIS coalition Brett McGurk, who have said that IS retains only 1 percent of its territory, the officials said.

Bolton stressed, however, that the entire national security team agreed that victory over IS had to be enduring, which means more than taking away its territory.

Trump was not dissuaded, according to the officials, who said the president quickly capitulated by pledging to withdraw, shocking both Bolton and Erdogan.

Caught off guard, Erdogan cautioned Trump against a hasty withdrawal, according to one official
TrumpAdministration  Trump  decision_making  Bolton  Turkey  ISIS  Mar15  withdrawal  unnamed_official 
12 weeks ago by elizrael
Medical Professor Tried to Help Patients Understand Their Odds - WSJ
By James R. Hagerty
Dec. 14, 2018

Together with H. Gilbert Welch, Dr. Schwartz and Dr. Woloshin wrote a 2008 book, “Know Your Chances: Understanding Health Statistics.” They also worked with the National Cancer Institute to create the Know Your Chances website..... Lisa Schwartz [worked towards]... helping people make informed decisions about whether to try a medication or treatment.

She devoted her career to making patients smarter about assessing risks and advising doctors and journalists about how to communicate more clearly on medical issues.... She and her husband, Dr. Steven Woloshin, also coached people on how to assess odds. If a drug was found to reduce the risks of a disease by 80%, that may sound persuasive. But if those chances were only 2% to begin with, the difference made by the drug might not be sufficient to justify the side effects.....Dr. Schwartz taught junior faculty members and post-doctoral students to write and speak more effectively. Clear writing, she often said, required clear thinking. "Our goal has been to give people a realistic sense of what is known and what is not known—how hopeful or worried they should be.”
communicating_risks  decision_making  medical_communication  obituaries  physicians  risk-assessment  women  unknowns  doctor's_visits  doctors  plain_English  probabilities  books  smart_people 
december 2018 by jerryking
Get to "Yes" Using 5-Finger Consensus | Leadership Strategies
Reach agreement within your group more effectively with proven facilitation methods to build consensus. Here's how to facilitate a meeting with consensus.
facilitation  meetings  decision_making  leadership 
november 2018 by enslrhs82
‘Farsighted’ Review: How to Make Up Your Mind - WSJ
By David A. Shaywitz
Sept. 11, 2018

..mission planners first systematically widened their thinking to define their options as broadly as possible, seeking a “full-spectrum appraisal of the state of things and a comprehensive list of potential choices.” Then they coned down the alternatives by playing out multiple scenarios, exploring all the ways the mission could go wrong........When faced with complex choices we tend to frame problems in a narrow fashion. participation from as broad and diverse a group as possible.....a diversity of viewpoints isn’t enough. Citing the legal scholar Cass Sunstein, Mr. Johnson observes that, although “groups often possess a rich mix of information distributed among their members,” when they assemble “they tend to focus on shared information.” Thus it is important to design a process that exposes “unshared information”—by meeting individually with stakeholders, for instance, instead of merely convening a town hall. Similarly, he cites research revealing that two-thirds of organizational decisions never contemplate more than a single option. There is a “gravitational pull toward the initial framing of the decision.” To overcome it, he suggests considering what might be done if the presumptive path forward were suddenly blocked....“Uncertainty can’t simply be analyzed out of existence,” ...What scenarios and simulations can offer is a way to “prepare you for the many ways that the future might unexpectedly veer.”..... Linear value modeling, for example, weighs the relative importance of different goals, while a bad-outcomes approach examines worst-case possibilities........given the challenges of making high-stakes global decisions. How should we respond, as a planet, to the challenges of addressing climate change, communicating with alien life forms or managing computers with superintelligence? The answer seems to be: by convening diverse experts and hoping for the best. ....... Great novels matter because “they let us experience parallel lives, and see the complexity of those experiences in vivid detail.”........ fundamentally, choices concern competing narratives, and we’re likely to make better choices if we have richer stories, with more fleshed-out characters, a more nuanced understanding of motives, and a deeper appreciation of how decisions are likely to reverberate and resound.
books  book_reviews  decision_making  far-sightedness  shared_experiences  Steven_Johnson  uncertainty  worst-case  scenario-planning  choices  novels  thinking_tragically  wide-framing  unshared_information  howto  narrow-framing  Cass_Sunstein  presumptions 
november 2018 by jerryking
4 Ways to Pressure-Test Strategic Decisions, Inspired by the U.S. Military
1. Build situational awareness
2. Develop an outside-in perspective
3. Game it out (War Game)
4. Form diverse, strategic groups (strategic initiative groups)
strategic_planning  strategic_analysis  decisioning  decision_making 
november 2018 by tom.reeder
How a Former Canadian Spy Helps Wall Street Mavens Think Smarter
Nov. 11, 2018 | The New York Times | By Landon Thomas Jr.

* “Atomic Habits: An Easy and Proven Way to Build Good Habits and Break Bad Ones,” by James Clear. “
* “The Laws of Human Nature,” an examination of human behavior that draws on examples of historical figures by Robert Greene.
* “Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Bets When you Don’t Have All the Cards” by Annie Duke,
* “On Grand Strategy,” an assessment of the decisions of notable historical leaders by the Pulitzer Prize-winning biographer John Lewis Gaddis

Shane Parrish has become an unlikely guru for Wall Street. His self-improvement strategies appeal to his overachieving audience in elite finance, Silicon Valley and professional sports.....Shane Parrish is a former cybersecurity expert at Canada’s top intelligence agency and an occasional blogger when he noticed something curious about his modest readership six years ago: 80 percent of his followers worked on Wall Street......The blog was meant to be a method of self-improvement, however, his lonely riffs — on how learning deeply, thinking widely and reading books strategically could improve decision-making skills — had found an eager audience among hedge fund titans and mutual fund executives, many of whom were still licking their wounds after the financial crisis.

His website, Farnam Street, urges visitors to “Upgrade Yourself.” In saying as much, Mr. Parrish is promoting strategies of rigorous self-betterment as opposed to classic self-help fare — which appeals to his overachieving audience in elite finance, Silicon Valley and professional sports. ....Today, Mr. Parrish’s community of striving financiers is clamoring for more of him. That means calling on him to present his thoughts and book ideas to employees and clients; attending his regular reading and think weeks in Hawaii, Paris and the Bahamas; and in some cases hiring him to be their personal decision-making coach......“We are trying to get people to ask themselves better questions and reflect. If you can do that, you will be better able to handle the speed and variety of changing environments.”....Parrish advises investors, to disconnect from the noise and to read deeply......Few Wall Street obsessions surpass the pursuit of an investment edge. In an earlier era, before computers and the internet, this advantage was largely brain power. Today, information is just another commodity. And the edge belongs to algorithms, data sets and funds that track indexes and countless other investment themes.......“It is all about habits,” “Setting goals is easy — but without good habits you are not getting there.”......“Every world-class investor is questioning right now how they can improve,” he said. “So, in a machine-driven age where everything is driven by speed, perhaps the edge is judgment, time and perspective.”
books  Charlie_Munger  coaching  commoditization_of_information  CSE  cyber_security  decision_making  deep_learning  disconnecting  financiers  gurus  habits  investors  life_long_learning  overachievers  personal_coaching  questions  reading  reflections  self-betterment  self-improvement  slight_edge  smart_people  Wall_Street  Warren_Buffett 
november 2018 by jerryking
As Khashoggi crisis grows, Saudi king asserts authority, checks son's power: sources | Article [AMP] | Reuters
Initially the king, who has handed the day-to-day running of Saudi Arabia to his son, commonly known as MbS, was unaware of the extent of the crisis, according to two of the sources with knowledge of the Saudi royal court. That was partly because MbS aides had been directing the king to glowing news about the country on Saudi TV channels, the sources said.

"Even if MbS wanted to keep this away from the king he couldn't because the story about Khashoggi's disappearance was on all the Arab and Saudi TV channels watched by the king," one of the five sources said.

"The king started asking aides and MbS about it. MbS had to tell him and asked him to intervene when Khashoggi’s case became a global crisis," this source said.
dissident  Assassination  Saudi-Arabia  media  decision_making  MbS 
october 2018 by elizrael
From Anguished Appeal to Presidential Tweet: The Doctor Who Changed U.S. Policy - WSJ. Oct 18, 2018
Dr. Albezem and her group looked for a way to get to the president. Allies suggested they hire Trump fundraiser and lobbyist Brian Ballard.

When meeting him earlier this year, Dr. Albezem laid out in chilling terms what was happening in Syria. She vividly described the last seconds of a dying child’s life after a chemical attack.

Mr. Ballard says he was moved. But he didn’t think he could help them. Mr. Trump wasn’t an interventionist and was pushing to withdraw American troops from Syria as soon as possible.

Dr. Albezem persisted, and Mr. Ballard relented. He laid out various ways they could try to influence the president. If you want to make your case directly to Mr. Trump, Mr. Ballard told them, there are small roundtables where you can meet him. One such fundraiser happened to be coming up in a few weeks in Mar-a-Lago.

Dr. Albezem and her fellow activists raised the cash for two seats at an intimate roundtable at the president’s resort in Palm Beach, Fla. The price tag for two seats, according to activists, was $100,000. Dr. Albezem declined to comment on how much she raised for Mr. Trump and the Republican Party.

At the roundtable, the two women urged Mr. Trump to do more in Syria, and Mr. Trump asked aides to get him more information, Ms. Bouzo said.
Mar15  Idlib  Trump  lobby  Assad  activism  foreign_policy  decision_making 
october 2018 by elizrael

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