The Seven Deadly Sins of AI Predictions - MIT Technology Review


126 bookmarks. First posted by fredcavazza 9 weeks ago.


are all your AI predictions reasonable?
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3 days ago by eszter
The Seven Deadly Sins of AI Predictions

Mistaken extrapolations, limited imagination, and other common mistakes that distract us from thinking more productively about the future.

by Rodney Brooks October 6, 2017
64
We are surrounded by hysteria about the future of artificial intelligence and robotics—hysteria about how powerful they will become, how quickly, and what they will do to jobs.

I recently saw a story in ­MarketWatch that said robots will take half of today’s jobs in 10 to 20 years. It even had a graphic to prove the numbers.

The claims are ludicrous. (I try to maintain professional language, but sometimes …) For instance, the story appears to say that we will go from one million grounds and maintenance workers in the U.S. to only 50,000 in 10 to 20 years, because robots will take over those jobs. How many robots are currently operational in those jobs? Zero. How many realistic demonstrations have there been of robots working in this arena? Zero. Similar stories apply to all the other categories where it is suggested that we will see the end of more than 90 percent of jobs that currently require physical presence at some particular site.
#AI  #status  #outlook  #challenges  #deployment  #critique  #RodneyBrooks 
13 days ago by phil_hendrix
Mistaken extrapolations, limited imagination, and other common mistakes that distract us from thinking more productively about the future.
AI 
23 days ago by generoche49
Mistaken extrapolations, limited imagination, and other common mistakes that distract us from thinking more productively about the future.
25 days ago by gitteheij
We are surrounded by hysteria about the future of artificial intelligence and robotics—hysteria about how powerful they will become, how quickly, and what they will do to jobs. I recently saw a story in ­MarketWatch that said robots will take half of today’s jobs in 10 to 20 years.
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4 weeks ago by timothyarnold
Great read. Unless it’s written by an AI luring us into a false sense of security.
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5 weeks ago by chillu
We are surrounded by hysteria about the future of artificial intelligence and robotics—hysteria about how powerful they will become, how quickly, and what they…
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5 weeks ago by leeomara
RT : "Watch out for arguments about future technology that is magical." - .
Very interestingl read on AI:
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5 weeks ago by LibrariesVal
Roy Amara was a cofounder of the Institute for the Future, in Palo Alto, the intellectual heart of Silicon Valley. He is best known for his adage now referred to as Amara’s Law:

We tend to overestimate the effect of a technology in the short run and underestimate the effect in the long run.
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6 weeks ago by mayonissen
« We tend to overestimate the effect of a technology in the short run and underestimate the effect in the long run »
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6 weeks ago by Baptiste
W e are surrounded by hysteria about the future of artificial intelligence and robotics—hysteria about how powerful they will become, how quickly, and what they…
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6 weeks ago by carlosmiceli
We are surrounded by hysteria about the future of artificial intelligence and robotics—hysteria about how powerful they will become, how quickly, and what they will do to jobs. I recently saw a story in ­MarketWatch that said robots will take half of today’s jobs in 10 to 20 years. via Pocket
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7 weeks ago by colonel2sheds
Robotics pioneer Rodney Brooks debunks AI hype seven ways via Instapaper http://bit.ly/2zBditX
W e are surrounded by hysteria about the future of artificial intelligence and robotics—hysteria about how powerful they will become, how quickly, and what they…
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7 weeks ago by patrick
The principal control mechanism in factories, including brand-new ones in the U.S., Europe, Japan, Korea, and China, is based on programmable logic controllers,…
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7 weeks ago by indirect
We are surrounded by hysteria about the future of artificial intelligence and robotics—hysteria about how powerful they will become, how quickly, and what they…
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7 weeks ago by theory
W e are surrounded by hysteria about the future of artificial intelligence and robotics—hysteria about how powerful they will become, how quickly, and what they…
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7 weeks ago by loganrhyne
W e are surrounded by hysteria about the future of artificial intelligence and robotics—hysteria about how powerful they will become, how quickly, and what they…
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7 weeks ago by alexdunae
We are surrounded by hysteria about the future of artificial intelligence and robotics—hysteria about how powerful they will become, how quickly, and what they…
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7 weeks ago by adrianhon
W e are surrounded by hysteria about the future of artificial intelligence and robotics—hysteria about how powerful they will become, how quickly, and what they…
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7 weeks ago by nimprojects
We are surrounded by hysteria about the future of artificial intelligence and robotics—hysteria about how powerful they will become, how quickly, and what they will do to jobs. I recently saw a story in ­MarketWatch that said robots will take half of today’s jobs in 10 to 20 years. via Pocket
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7 weeks ago by trisignia
The Seven Deadly Sins of AI Predictions - MIT Technology Review
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7 weeks ago by bferg
The Seven Deadly Sins of AI Predictions
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7 weeks ago by deejbah
We are surrounded by hysteria about the future of artificial intelligence and robotics—hysteria about how powerful they will become, how quickly, and what they will do to jobs. I recently saw a story in ­MarketWatch that said robots will take half of today’s jobs in 10 to 20 years. via Pocket
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7 weeks ago by puzzlement
Mistaken extrapolations, limited imagination, and other common mistakes that distract us from thinking more productively about the future.
7 weeks ago by nfultz
The Seven Deadly Sins of AI Predictions
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8 weeks ago by borgopio
“We tend to overestimate the effect of a technology in the short run and underestimate the effect in the long run.”
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8 weeks ago by BenSS
Describes limitations of artificial intelligence. Moderates the hype. Written by former director of the Computer Science and Artificial Intelligence Laboratory at MIT.
analytics  ai  bestpractices 
8 weeks ago by sburer

We see a similar pattern with other technologies over the last 30 years. A big promise up front, disappointment, and then slowly growing confidence in results that exceed the original expectations. This is true of computation, genome sequencing, solar power, wind power, and even home delivery of groceries.

modern-day AGI research is not doing well at all on either being general or supporting an independent entity with an ongoing existence. It mostly seems stuck on the same issues in reasoning and common sense that AI has had problems with for at least 50 years. All the evidence that I see says we have no real idea yet how to build one. Its properties are completely unknown, so rhetorically it quickly becomes magical, powerful without limit.

Today’s machine learning is not at all the sponge-like learning that humans engage in, making rapid progress in a new domain without having to be surgically altered or purpose-built.

What Gordon Moore actually said was that the number of components that could fit on a microchip would double every year. That held true for 50 years, although the time constant for doubling gradually lengthened from one year to over two years, and the pattern is coming to an end.

The U.S. Air Force still flies the B-52H variant of the B-52 bomber. This version was introduced in 1961, making it 56 years old. The last one was built in 1962, a mere 55 years ago. Currently these planes are expected to keep flying until at least 2040, and perhaps longer—there is talk of extending their life to 100 years.
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8 weeks ago by aries1988
We are surrounded by hysteria about the future of artificial intelligence and robotics—hysteria about how powerful they will become, how quickly, and what they will do to jobs. I recently saw a story in ­MarketWatch that said robots will take half of today’s jobs in 10 to 20 years. via Pocket
8 weeks ago by nirum
Deploying new hardware, on the other hand, has significant marginal costs. We know that from our own lives. Many of the cars we are buying today, which are not self-driving, and mostly are not ­software-enabled, will probably still be on the road in the year 2040. This puts an inherent limit on how soon all our cars will be self-driving. If we build a new home today, we can expect that it might be around for over 100 years. The building I live in was built in 1904, and it is not nearly the oldest in my neighborhood.

Capital costs keep physical hardware around for a long time, even when there are high-tech aspects to it, and even when it has an existential mission.
ai  ml 
8 weeks ago by libbymiller
W e are surrounded by hysteria about the future of artificial intelligence and robotics—hysteria about how powerful they will become, how quickly, and what they…
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8 weeks ago by mjays
We are surrounded by hysteria about the future of artificial intelligence and robotics—hysteria about how powerful they will become, how quickly, and what they will do to jobs. I recently saw a story in ­MarketWatch that said robots will take half of today’s jobs in 10 to 20 years. via Pocket
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8 weeks ago by archizoo
We are surrounded by hysteria about the future of artificial intelligence and robotics—hysteria about how powerful they will become, how quickly, and what they will do to jobs. I recently saw a story in ­MarketWatch that said robots will take half of today’s jobs in 10 to 20 years.
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8 weeks ago by linkt
We are surrounded by hysteria about the future of artificial intelligence and robotics—hysteria about how powerful they will become, how quickly, and what they…
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8 weeks ago by dylan
Mistaken extrapolations, limited imagination, and other common mistakes that distract us from thinking more productively about the future.
by Rodney Brooks October 6, 2017
AI  futurism 
8 weeks ago by zryb
Terrific Rodney Brooks essay about common sources of nonsense in current predictions for an AI future:
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8 weeks ago by gregab
This is a problem we all have with imagined future technology. If it is far enough away from the technology we have and understand today, then we do not know its limitations. And if it becomes indistinguishable from magic, anything one says about it is no longer falsifiable.

This is a problem I regularly encounter when trying to debate with people about whether we should fear artificial general intelligence, or AGI—the idea that we will build autonomous agents that operate much like beings in the world.
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8 weeks ago by jomc
W e are surrounded by hysteria about the future of artificial intelligence and robotics—hysteria about how powerful they will become, how quickly, and what they…
9 weeks ago by jkleske