The hacker's guide to uncertainty estimates · Erik Bernhardsson

39 bookmarks. First posted by rjknight 8 weeks ago.

Why? Because I’ve been sitting in 100,000,000 meetings where people endlessly debate whether the monthly number of widgets is going up or down, or whether widget method X is more productive than widget method Y. For almost any graph, quantifying the uncertainty seems useful, so I started trying. via Pocket
IFTTT  Pocket
15 days ago by gushov
I made a New Year’s resolution: every plot I make during 2018 will contain uncertainty estimates. Nine months in and I have learned a lot, so I put together a summary of some of the most useful methods.
data.science  probability  via:lena
25 days ago by pgt150
I made a New Year’s resolution: every plot I make during 2018 will contain uncertainty estimates. Nine months in and I have learned a lot, so I put together a summary of some of the most useful methods.
python  statistics  plots
7 weeks ago by lena
Under some mild assumptions (I’m going to get back to this in a sec and scrutinize it), we can compute the confidence intervals of the mean estimator as: I’ve personally benefitted from memorizing the formula for the confidence interval and think I probably use it more than the previous (Normal based) one. There’s some smart ways you can implement linear regression so that it’s extremely fast, but we’re not going to use those methods because they don’t generalize very well. In fact, minimizing squared loss (which we just did, in the previous snippet) is actually a special case of maximum likelihood! It’s similar to bootstrapping, but MCMC has far better theoretical underpinnings (we are sampling from a “posterior distribution” using Bayes rule), and it’s often orders of magnitude faster.
7 weeks ago by sechilds
First of all, let’s not fit any fancy models. We’re just going to break it up into a few buckets and compute the mean within each bucket. But let’s first pause and talk about uncertainty.

how does he make it seem so cool?
nice-thinking  python  statistics  r
8 weeks ago by mozzarella
The hacker's guide to uncertainty estimates It started with a tweet: New years resolution: every plot I make during 2018 will contain uncertainty estimates — Erik Bernhardsson (@fulhack) January 7, 2018 Why? Because I’ve been sitting in 100,000,000 meetings where people endlessly debate whether the monthly number of widgets is going up or down, or whether widget method X is more productive than widget method Y.
math  python  statistics  pandas
8 weeks ago by chris.leaman
Well explained guide to uncertainty estimates.
python  Data  DataMining  Probability
8 weeks ago by lost_in_space
I made a New Year’s resolution: every plot I make during 2018 will contain uncertainty estimates. Nine months in and I have learned a lot, so I put together a summary of some of the most useful methods.
8 weeks ago by sevas
The hacker's guide to uncertainty estimates 2018-10-08 It started with a tweet: New years resolution: every plot I make during 2018 will contain uncertainty…
from instapaper
8 weeks ago by rogerhsueh
The hacker's guide to uncertainty estimates
uncertainty  pandas  python
8 weeks ago by Tafkas