Remarks by Henry M. Paulson, Jr., on the United States and China at a Crossroads – Paulson Institute
November 7, 2018—Singapore—Henry M. Paulson, Jr., Paulson Institute Chairman and 74th Secretary of the Treasury, today addressed the Bloomberg New Economy Forum, during which he focused on the growing tension between the United States and China and the risk of an Economic Iron Curtain forming in the global economy if the two countries do not move past their disputes toward a workable consensus.
3 days ago
Ex-diplomat: U.S. must ‘figure out a way to work with China’:The Asahi Shimbun
Q: Do you believe that China is “revisionist” against the existing international order?

A: I don’t agree with that. I think China has a goal to build up its national power. It’s a long-term goal. Will that eventually turn into a situation in which they are moving to eclipse the United States on the world stage? It is possible. Of course China has always been a competitor. But the Chinese are very much interested in the perpetuation of the current international order. I don’t think they want to create a parallel system.

Q: Some people think the Trump administration shifted the U.S. policy on China from “engagement” to “containment.”

A: I don’t understand, really, why the word “engagement” is so objectionable to people. When I think about engagement, what I think of is just the two sides talking to each other. Engagement is what we do with countries around the world. It’s to our benefit. China is different from the former Soviet Union. We don’t have that international coalition that’s going to be willing to economically isolate China. Our economies are too intertwined, and it would be a disaster for the U.S. economy to cut itself off from China, frankly.

Q: While Prime Minister Shinzo Abe visited Beijing, he agreed with President Xi Jinping on the principle that two countries will move from competition to coordination.

A: Japan has already seen it’s impossible to isolate China, and I think it is moving in the direction of realistically assessing and realizing its own interest, and I hope that the United States will move similarly, soon.

Q: Do you believe that the current administration’s policy on China is moving in the wrong direction?

A: That’s my belief, yes. In order to get progress on areas where you have differences, you have to sit down and talk through and figure out what bottom lines are and who can come this direction, who can come that direction. But, I do feel that, in the current U.S. society, with our divided and fractured politics, that it’s far too easy for people to demonize the notion that you would give in an inch to your opponent and that somehow everything is a zero sum game. I don’t believe that. I think almost every problem has a mutually beneficial solution, whether it be between people, between countries.
4 days ago
Taiwan ‘will consider’ hosting US warships on Taiping Island for regional security | South China Morning Post
Taiwan “will consider” a US Navy request should Washington ask to use the largest of the Spratly Islands in the South China Sea for regional security purposes, the island’s defence minister said on Monday in response to a series of hypothetical questions from a member of the Legislative Yuan in Taipei.
Yen De-fa told the opposition Kuomintang’s Johnny Chiang that Taiwan could also allow US warships to dock at Taiping Island, which is under Taipei’s control, for humanitarian operations.
Beijing views Taiwan – which broke away after the end of the civil war in 1949 – as its territory and subject to eventual union, if necessary by force.
Beijing has warned Washington, which has undertaken to support Taiwan’s security, against cooperating with Taipei militarily or supplying it with arms.
4 days ago
MacStories Weekly: Issue 151
Accessing Recents from the Compose Screen in Messages
John: This is an incredibly simple but powerful trick that I only learned recently. The list of friends and family I text regularly is far shorter than my entire Contacts database. As a result, tapping the plus button in the ‘To:’ field when composing a new message is rarely what I want. However, there’s an easy shortcut to see only those people you’ve recently messaged. Tap in the ‘To:’ field and type a period. A list of the contacts you’ve recently messaged will drop down with the most recent person at the top of the list, making it much faster to pick someone, especially if you regularly delete text threads. Unfortunately, this technique doesn’t work with group messages, only individuals.
4 days ago
Xi Jinping's awkward relationship with Deng Xiaoping - Nikkei Asian Review
On the question of Xi's domestic political troubles, there is one more reason why the current Chinese leader may be shunning his illustrious predecessor Deng, instead of celebrating a key anniversary of his achievements.

It is an incident that took place about 30 years ago.

In 1987, Hu Yaobang, then general secretary of the Chinese Communist Party, was dismissed. Hu was a champion of 'reform and opening up' and was popular with the public. Hu had been given important posts by Deng.

Hu was held accountable for allegedly lax handling of nationwide student protests calling for democratization, which eventually led to the Tiananmen Square demonstrations, which were violently suppressed.

Deng decided to dismiss Hu. At the time, Xi Zhongxun, President Xi's father, put himself in harm's way to resist Hu's dismissal. The elder Xi was serving as a Politburo member.

Xi Zhongxun even indirectly told Deng: "If you insist on dismissing Hu Yaobang, let me step into his shoes as the Communist Party's general secretary." The elder Xi demanded something impossible from the paramount leader.

Xi Zhongxun's vehement resistance significantly delayed the convening of an enlarged Politburo meeting to formally dismiss Hu. On Jan. 16, 1987, Hu was removed from his post.

As a result, Xi Zhongxun was effectively purged by Deng later. The elder Xi's health deteriorated and he died in 2002 after enduring dark days. As the elder Xi's fate shows, power struggles in China are always grim affairs.

When Hu was dismissed, Xi Jinping was in his thirties, serving as a senior local official. The chain of events that took place at the time remains etched into his memory.
11 days ago
Picking flowers, making honey. | Australian Strategic Policy Institute | ASPI
China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) is expanding its research collaboration with universities outside of China. Since 2007, the PLA has sponsored more than 2,500 military scientists and engineers to study abroad and has developed relationships with researchers and institutions across the globe.1

This collaboration is highest in the Five Eyes countries, Germany and Singapore, and is often unintentionally supported by taxpayer funds.2 Australia has been engaged in the highest level of PLA collaboration among Five Eyes countries per capita, at six times the level in the US. Nearly all PLA scientists sent abroad are Chinese Communist Party (CCP) members who return to China on time.

Dozens of PLA scientists have obscured their military affiliations to travel to Five Eyes countries and the European Union, including at least 17 to Australia, where they work in areas such as hypersonic missiles and navigation technology. Those countries don’t count China as a security ally but rather treat it as one of their main intelligence adversaries.
11 days ago
Khashoggi Case Erodes Saudi Reputation, and Allies Worry
Great piece in the strategic alliances round Saudi Arabia and other regional players
22 days ago
Jeane Kirkpatrick and the Roots of Principled Realism
The full scope of Kirkpatrick’s thinking, taken from her essays and speeches, is reflective of the “principled realism” described in the 2017 National Security Strategy. First, Kirkpatrick constructed a case against the theories that underlay the American policy of détente, which had long served as the basis of American East-West policy toward the Soviet Union. She also objected to the theories that motivated the American move toward taking a global approach to international affairs, which served as the basis of American policies in the Third World. Finally, she possessed resolute faith in the American principles of liberal democracy.

Doing Away with Détente

Kirkpatrick believed that “détente,” which had been followed by the nation’s leaders from the late 1960s until the election in 1980, was not working and needed to be discarded. As evidence, she pointed to the expansion of Soviet power both via its proxies in Latin America and Africa throughout the 1970s, and via direct use of Soviet forces in Afghanistan in 1979. Kirkpatrick explained that détente rested upon several popular theories that had proven to be untrue.

The first incorrect theory held that “the proliferation of economic and cultural ties and rewards would function as incentives to restrain Soviet expansion” and that “deliberately building networks of relations between the West and the Soviet bloc would lead to the liberalization of the Soviet Union.” The second theory of “weaker is stronger” suggested that “U.S. military superiority constitutes a provocation, which stimulates countermeasures and overreaction.” Lastly, a third theory of “the stimulus-response, frustration-aggression” surmised that, “The Soviet Union behaved aggressively because it was frustrated by a sense of insecurity deriving from its relative weakness…[T]he solution to aggressive behavior…lay in creating a feeling of security by eliminating the impotence.” Kirkpatrick believed that these three theories had gained so much traction because they aligned with rationalism and with “popular conceptions of human psychology and behavior.”
24 days ago
China’s Sea Control Is a Done Deal, ‘Short of War With the U.S.’
The country’s aggressive territorial claims and island militarization have put neighboring countries and the United States on the defensive, even as President Trump’s administration is stepping up efforts to highlight China’s controversial island-building campaign.

In congressional testimony before assuming his new post as head of the United States Indo-Pacific Command in May, Adm. Philip S. Davidson sounded a stark warning about Beijing’s power play in a sea through which roughly one-third of global maritime trade flows.

“In short, China is now capable of controlling the South China Sea in all scenarios short of war with the United States,” Admiral Davidson said, an assessment that caused some consternation in the Pentagon.
4 weeks ago
Apple Park | Flickr
Apple Park built with Lego
5 weeks ago
North Korea Will Give up the Bomb and Normalize
Several factors contribute to the elusiveness of North Korea’s denuclearization.

- No agreement on what denuclearization means
- No guarantee of North Korea’s security nor enough of a willingness to take it seriously
- A regional challenge that requires multilateral cooperation but at this point, the parties aren’t moving in tandem
- an underestimation of Kim Jong-un’s commitment to economic development. This viewpoint is based ont he idea that Kim is _not_ the same as his predecessors

Finally, Korean nationalism has to be recognized as a powerful force for denuclearization and peace on the Korean Peninsula. The image of Moon and Kim holding hands at the top of the sacred [Baekdu Mountain ]is highly symbolic of Korean unity. The Koreans desire peace and want to formally end the Korean War. China and Russia have supported the idea, but the United States remains [wary ]. Hardliners like U.S. ambassador to Seoul [Harry Harris ]continue to disregard reconciliation of the two Koreas and instead shift all the burdens on North Korea.

President Moon’s vigorous mediation efforts are remarkable. A supporter and practitioner of the “ [Sunshine Policy ],” Moon—whose parents fled from the North to the South in 1950—has a historic mission to see the Korean people living in peace and unity. Kim seems to share that vision. With a conducive international environment, it is hopeful that the Korean Peninsula will not only be nuclear-free but become a peaceful, prosperous, and unified nation in the not too distant future.
6 weeks ago
The Pyongyang Declaration: Implications for U.S.-ROK Coordination on North Korea - The National Bureau of Asian Research (NBR)
The traditional pattern of triangular interaction among the United States, South Korea, and North Korea has involved North Korean efforts to play one ally against the other by warming to one while spurning the other. But this time there appears to be a different dynamic at play in which North Korea attempts to use South Korea as a bridge to improve relations with the United States, while also using South Korea as a shield against the most strident U.S. demands. This dynamic is one in which collective U.S.-ROK efforts to achieve denuclearization—backed by the promise of sanctions relaxation and the lure of co-prosperity—might achieve more than an approach based strictly on coercion. But that will only be the case if the United States and South Korea are able to stick together and maintain a united front, while ensuring that Kim Jong-un understands that the benefits of economic integration and co-prosperity are truly attainable if, and only if, he moves toward denuclearization.
6 weeks ago
Opinion | Kim Jong-un Has a Dream. The U.S. Should Help Him Realize It. - The New York Times
The skeptics are skeptical because they tend to assume that Mr. Kim’s views are in keeping with those of his grandfather Kim Il Sung, who hoped to forcibly reunify the Korean Peninsula, or his father, Kim Jong-il, who used negotiations to stall for time, desperate just to survive.

In fact, Mr. Kim’s strategy and tactics belong to another archetype, one familiar here in East Asia: the strongman who sets his country on the path of economic development. Mr. Kim’s ideological lineage can be traced back to Japan’s postwar prime minister Yoshida Shigeru, Singapore’s founding father Lee Kuan Yew, South Korea’s military dictator Park Chung-hee, Taiwan’s dynastic heir Chiang Ching-kuo and, above all, Deng Xiaoping in China.

Mr. Kim wants to be a great economic reformer. And the United States should help him, because that’s the best way to sustain progress toward denuclearization and eventually eliminate the threat posed by North Korea.

From the moment Mr. Kim took power almost seven years ago, he signaled a shift in the regime’s focus, from security to prosperity. In an early speech as leader in 2012, he promised North Koreans that they would no longer have to “tighten their belts.” He decentralized decision-making, giving farmers greater freedom to sell their crops and factory managers more control over wages and production. He lifted curbs on informal grass-roots markets and small private businesses.

Mr. Kim announced a “new strategic line” at a high-level party meeting in March 2013, calling for “dual progress” (byungjin) on developing a nuclear deterrent and the civilian economy at the same time. It was a marked step away from his father’s line of “military-first politics” and its priority on defense.
7 weeks ago
How the Enlightenment Ends - The Atlantic
Ultimately, the term artificial intelligence may be a misnomer. To be sure, these machines can solve complex, seemingly abstract problems that had previously yielded only to human cognition. But what they do uniquely is not thinking as heretofore conceived and experienced. Rather, it is unprecedented memorization and computation. Because of its inherent superiority in these fields, AI is likely to win any game assigned to it. But for our purposes as humans, the games are not only about winning; they are about thinking. By treating a mathematical process as if it were a thought process, and either trying to mimic that process ourselves or merely accepting the results, we are in danger of losing the capacity that has been the essence of human cognition.
henrykissinger  artificialintelligence 
7 weeks ago
Henry Kissinger: ‘We are in a very, very grave period’ | Financial Times
“I think Trump may be one of those figures in history who appears from time to time to mark the end of an era and to force it to give up its old pretences. It doesn’t necessarily mean that he knows this, or that he is considering any great alternative. It could just be an accident.”
7 weeks ago
A new era of U.S.–China competition calls for new rules - Axios
The shift in the U.S.–China relationship is a structural phenomenon, the result of economic, military and technological gains in China that constitute a threat to American dominance — and further reinforced by their radically different political, cultural and ideological systems. This cleavage goes far deeper that the current trade war. Policymakers in both Washington and Beijing will have to decide whether to let the relationship destabilize further or to agree on rules to govern, or at least guide, this new era of strategic competition.
7 weeks ago
AsiaGlobal Online – China, Venezuela, and the Illusion of Debt-Trap Diplomacy
In an article from early 2017, titled “China’s Debt-Trap Diplomacy,” geopolitics pundit Brahma Chellaney argued that China has sought to purposely ensnare some of its South Asian neighbors in unsustainable loans-for-infrastructure deals.
Since that article was published, the concept of debt-trap diplomacy has become increasingly popular among some journalists, researchers, and policymakers. These individuals are critical of China’s rapidly expanding provision of international infrastructure finance, especially through its ubiquitous Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).
Yet, the emerging conventional wisdom that China gains when the countries it lends to are unable to service their debts risks misunderstanding how China has and will become a victim of its own lending missteps and hubris. No Chinese debt-based relationship is more instructive in this regard than its dysfunctional ties to Venezuela.
7 weeks ago
China-Russia Relations: Strategic Implications and U.S. Policy Options
Main Argument
The China-Russia relationship continues to deepen and broaden with ever more negative implications for the U.S. The drivers of Sino-Russian cooperation overshadow the brakes on forward movement at the U.S. expense. The momentum is based on (1) common objectives and values, (2) perceived Russian and Chinese vulnerabilities in the face of U.S. and Western pressures, and (3) perceived opportunities for the two powers to expand their influence at the expense of U.S. and allied countries that are seen as in decline. The current outlook is bleak, offering no easy fixes for the U.S. Nonetheless, there remain limits on Sino-Russian cooperation. The two governments continue to avoid entering a formal alliance or taking substantial risks in support of one another in areas where their interests do not overlap. Longer-term vulnerabilities include Russia’s dissatisfaction with its increasing junior status relative to China, China’s much stronger interest than Russia in preserving the existing world order, and opposition to Russian and Chinese regional expansion on the part of important lesser powers in Europe and Asia seeking U.S. support.
Policy Implications
The main recommended U.S. policy option involves multiyear and wide-ranging domestic and international strengthening—militarily, economically, and diplomatically—to better position the U.S. to deal with the challenges from China and Russia.
Participants in the NBR project differ on the appropriate amount of strengthening, with some urging sustained U.S. primacy and most others favoring various mixes of strengthening and accommodation requiring compromise of U.S. interests.
In applying this appropriate amount of strengthening and accommodation, some participants view Russia as the leading danger, warranting U.S. accommodation with China to counter Russia; others seek to work cooperatively with Russia against China, which is seen as a more powerful longer-term threat; and others view the above maneuvers as futile in the face of strongly converging Russian and Chinese interests and identity.
russia  china 
7 weeks ago
China’s Sea Control Is a Done Deal, ‘Short of War With the U.S.’ - The New York Times
In congressional testimony before assuming his new post as head of the United States Indo-Pacific Command in May, Adm. Philip S. Davidson sounded a stark warning about Beijing’s power play in a sea through which roughly one-third of global maritime trade flows.

“In short, China is now capable of controlling the South China Sea in all scenarios short of war with the United States,” Admiral Davidson said, an assessment that caused some consternation in the Pentagon.
7 weeks ago
In Xi We Trust: How Propaganda Might Be Working in the New Era - MacroPolo
Good piece on the centrality of propaganda (and the centralization of propaganda) under XI Jinping.
8 weeks ago
In China, Bush remains a popular president - latimes
Chinese political scientists also see Sept. 11 as a turning point for the Bush administration's attitudes toward their nation. During the 2000 presidential campaign, Bush described China as a "strategic competitor" and, after taking office, further angered the Chinese by pledging to do whatever it took to defend Taiwan, which is viewed by Beijing as a renegade province.

"Things changed after 9/11. China extended its hand to Bush, promising to support the war on terror," said Shen Dingli, a professor of American studies at Fudan University in Shanghai. He said that Beijing, in return, felt that it had Washington's support for its campaign against Muslim separatists in western China. And even though the Bush administration in October approved a $6.5-billion arms sale to Taiwan, the package excluded U.S.-made submarines, which China had argued were offensive weapons.

"Over time, Bush came to understand that China is a very important friend when it comes to national security interests," Shen said.
8 weeks ago
Singapore Sham
"it has always meant that North Korea would denuclearize after the United States walks away from its defense alliance with South Korea, removes its troops from the Korean Peninsula, withdraws the"
from instapaper
8 weeks ago
US-China trade war is based on false assumptions | Financial Times
The Trump administration wrongly thinks China’s economy is on the ropes, in part because of the escalating trade war. For their part, Chinese officials are fixated on November’s congressional midterm elections, naively believing that Republican losses will force Mr Trump to back down.

On August 16, Mr Trump’s top economic adviser endorsed a view that has grown popular in Washington. “[China’s] economy is just heading south,” Larry Kudlow told reporters. “Right now, their economy looks terrible.”

Some US officials also seem to believe that Mr Trump’s imposition of tariffs on Chinese exports worth $34bn in July — and on another $16bn in August — is why investment and overall economic growth are slowing in China.
9 weeks ago
China spends big in Tibet to avert a crisis when the Dalai Lama dies
China is pouring billions of dollars into Tibet as Beijing seeks to cement its control before the succession struggle that is likely to follow the death of the Dalai Lama.

During a rare Chinese government-organized visit to the region, local officials described a development program that they contend will bring prosperity to the 3.3 million Tibetans who inhabit a vast area roughly double the size of Texas.

The massive infrastructure projects include new airports and highways that cut through the world’s highest mountains, with planned investment totaling $97 billion.
9 weeks ago
To Counter China, U.S. Looks to Invest Billions More Overseas - WSJ
Congress is working to resolve the last barriers to passing a bill that would boost the U.S.’s role in international development. It would combine several little-known government agencies into a new body, with authority to do $60 billion in development financing—more than double the cap of the current agency that performs that function. The measure, supported by the Trump administration, easily passed the House this summer; it faces its biggest test in the Senate.

The new agency would have broad authority to go toe-to-toe with China in offering countries financing options for major infrastructure and development projects.

The bill’s momentum reflects growing bipartisan concern in Washington about the scale of China’s ambitions to restructure global trade routes so that all roads lead to Beijing. Senators have become especially concerned with China’s global investment plan known as the One Belt, One Road Initiative. China, which has flexed development muscle across the globe since it announced its plan in 2013, is thought to be willing to spend and lend trillions of dollars on projects like superhighways, railroads, harbors and ports.
9 weeks ago
ESPN’s Three-Pronged Podcast Bucket List : TALKERS magazine – “The bible of talk media.”
At the present time, the self-dubbed “worldwide leader” is publishing in the neighborhood of 60 podcasts, including all those under its network umbrella. “We publish many original podcasts and we have repurposed radio and television shows,” Ricks reveals. “In addition, we own radio stations in New York [sports talk WEPN ‘ESPN New York 98.7’]; Los Angeles [sports talk KSPN ‘ESPN LA 710’]; and Chicago [sports talk WMVP ‘ESPN Chicago 1000 AM’]. Those stations publish podcasts on the local level, as well. Probably the biggest challenges have been keeping up with the monetization of the content; having systems that are able to correctly forecast inventory; and deliver what an advertiser bought. Those are the pieces that have developed over the last few years, as we try to figure out which resources are needed to facilitate an efficient work process.”

Sports is naturally the focal point of ESPN podcasts. “We have broken our content into three ‘buckets’ for the podcast space,” Ricks points out. “We look at how to produce content in and around Major League Baseball, the NFL, and NBA [as well as some] niche sports [such as a recently-introduced Mixed Martial Arts-geared podcast]. Another ‘bucket’ approach is how we leverage the personalities we have and build podcast content around them. We’ve done that with several [on-air talents], including a newcomer to ESPN, Katie Nolan [who formerly hosted ‘Garbage Time with Katie Nolan’ on FOX Sports]. The third ‘bucket’ of our content strategy is focused on storytelling. Early last year, we launched a podcast [pertaining to] the revered ‘30 For 30’ brand. We take what’s best about ‘30 For 30’ and find stories in the marketplace that fit the podcast space and produce ‘storytelling’-type podcasts in and around [that particular brand].”
10 weeks ago
Huge Shakeups at Audible Originals – Hot Pod News
Yesterday, Nuzum, who held the title of SVP of Original Content Development at Audible, circulated an email announcing that he will be leaving the company in the next few weeks. He also noted that he plans to engage in some consulting work in the short-term, before diving into a new venture by the year’s end.

These developments come as Audible reshapes its original programming strategy. A spokesperson for the company tells me: “As you may know, we’ve been evolving our content strategy for Audible Originals (including our theater initiative, narrative storytelling “written to the form” as well as short-form programming). A related restructure of our teams resulted in the elimination of several roles and the transfer of some positions to other parts of the business.”

I briefly wrote about this shift last month, using the release of the author Michael Lewis’ audiobook-only project, The Coming Storm, as the news hook. In the piece, I posited a link between the strategic changes and recent shake-ups at the company’s executive level:

Audible has long been a horizontal curiosity for the podcast industry, given its hiring of former NPR programming VP Eric Nuzum in mid-2015 and subsequent rollout of the Audible Originals and “Channels” strategy in mid-2016, which saw the company releasing products that some, like myself, perceived as comparable to and competitive with the kinds of products you’d get from the podcast ecosystem.

This signing of authors like Michael Lewis to audiobook-first deals appears to be a ramping up of an alternate original programming strategy, one that sees Audible leaning more heavily into the preexisting nature of its core relationships with the book publishing industry and the book buying audience. It might also be a consequence of a reshuffle at the executive decision-making level: in late 2017, the Hollywood Reporter broke news that chief content officer Andrew Gaies and chief revenue officer Will Lopes unexpectedly stepped down resigned from their posts. (Later reporting noted that the resignations happened in the midst of a harassment probe.) The ripple effects of that sudden shift in leadership is probably only hitting us now, and in this form.
august 2018
What podcasters can learn from the book industry. – Pacific Content
Recent Rajar Midas research showed that 90% of podcast listeners consume podcasts alone. It is a solitary medium. Movies and TV are more social and suited to watching with others. Books, however, share the intimacy and solitary consumption of podcasting.
august 2018
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