rvenkat + us_politics   161

Saez and Zucman on Warren tax plan
-- a favorable evaluation by Krugman here
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/01/28/opinion/elizabeth-warren-tax-plan.html

-- a more cautious evaluation by Noah Smith here
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2019-01-29/u-s-economy-populist-plans-to-soak-the-rich-could-backfire

-- a critical take by Mankiw here
http://gregmankiw.blogspot.com/2019/01/who-is-prototypical-rich-person.html

and the Saez-Zucman op-ed in the times
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/01/22/opinion/ocasio-cortez-taxes.html

and Zucman's paper on questions of tax evasion and avoidance here
http://gabriel-zucman.eu/files/AJZ2018b.pdf

-- Smith's caution is based on allusion to institutional economic thinking, lack of empirical support and overt populist dog-whistle rhetoric.
wealth  income  inequality  public_policy  united_states_of_america  us_politics  us_elections 
20 days ago by rvenkat
White Identity Politics by Ashley Jardina
Amidst discontent over America's growing diversity, many white Americans now view the political world through the lens of a racial identity. Whiteness was once thought to be invisible because of whites' dominant position and ability to claim the mainstream, but today a large portion of whites actively identify with their racial group and support policies and candidates that they view as protecting whites' power and status. In White Identity Politics, Ashley Jardina offers a landmark analysis of emerging patterns of white identity and collective political behavior, drawing on sweeping data. Where past research on whites' racial attitudes emphasized out-group hostility, Jardina brings into focus the significance of in-group identity and favoritism. White Identity Politics shows that disaffected whites are not just found among the working class; they make up a broad proportion of the American public - with profound implications for political behavior and the future of racial conflict in America.

-- too simplistic; and I am guilty of judging the book by the publisher's description.
us_elections  us_politics  caste_system  political_psychology  political_science  book  via:nyhan 
9 weeks ago by rvenkat
Trump, the 2016 Election, and Expressions of Sexism
The amount of prejudice that people express in social situations, in private conversations, or even on public opinion surveys is not a direct reflection of their views, but rather the result of a process of suppression and justification. Accordingly, the expression of prejudice can be influenced both by a change in one’s internal cognitive calculations and also by a change in how one perceives the norms of their social environment. In this paper, I examine how the 2016 election influenced the expression of sexist viewpoints among Republicans. Specifically, I find that partisan motivated reasoning made Republicans more willing to express tolerance for sexist rhetoric when it came from Trump rather than from another source. Additionally, I show that Republicans became more willing to endorse sexist statements after the 2016 election, likely due to the fact that Trump’s victory changed their perceptions about the prevalence of sexist attitudes in American society. This increase in expressed sexism has persisted into 2018.

--For better or worse, * studies terms have infiltrated social science literature. Now, the hard part of figuring out if these terms intangible concepts can be objectively quantified as easily as the recent scholarly work suggests it can be.
us_politics  political_psychology  gender  2016  via:nyhan  epidemiology_of_representations  political_science 
october 2018 by rvenkat
Do Political Protests Matter? Evidence from the Tea Party Movement* | The Quarterly Journal of Economics | Oxford Academic
Can protests cause political change, or are they merely symptoms of underlying shifts in policy preferences? We address this question by studying the Tea Party movement in the United States, which rose to prominence through coordinated rallies across the country on Tax Day, April 15, 2009. We exploit variation in rainfall on the day of these rallies as an exogenous source of variation in attendance. We show that good weather at this initial, coordinating event had significant consequences for the subsequent local strength of the movement, increased public support for Tea Party positions, and led to more Republican votes in the 2010 midterm elections. Policy making was also affected, as incumbents responded to large protests in their district by voting more conservatively in Congress. Our estimates suggest significant multiplier effects: an additional protester increased the number of Republican votes by a factor well above 1. Together our results show that protests can build political movements that ultimately affect policy making and that they do so by influencing political views rather than solely through the revelation of existing political preferences
protests  collective_action  political_science  social_movements  us_politics 
january 2018 by rvenkat
On the Dynamics of Ideological Identification: The Puzzle of Liberal Identification Decline* | Political Science Research and Methods | Cambridge Core
Our focus is a puzzle: that ideological identification as “liberal” is in serious decline in the United States, but at the same time support for liberal policies and for the political party of liberalism is not. We aim to understand this divorce in “liberal” in name and “liberal” in policy by investigating how particular symbols rise and fall as associations with the ideological labels “liberal” and “conservative.” We produce three kinds of evidence to shed light on this macro-level puzzle. First, we explore the words associated with “liberal” and “conservative” over time. Then we take up a group conception by examining the changing correlations between affect toward “liberals” and affect toward other groups. Finally, we consider the changing policy correlates of identification.

http://ecoggins.web.unc.edu/files/2012/08/Coggins.Understanding.Liberal.Decline.pdf

I am curious about the evolution of *neoliberal* as an expletive.
norms  dynamics  political_science  ideology  conservatism  liberalism  public_opinion  us_politics  via:nyhan  linguistics  evolution  cultural_cognition 
december 2017 by rvenkat
Unity in Diversity: The Nascent Political Identity of Indian-Americans | Harvard Political Review
-- if you've ever lived in India among us, the observations are no-brainers; the article hits the nail on the head. It is interesting how the Indian-American immigrants have managed to retain their socio-economic identities as they re-rooted themselves in this continent but then again, it is not surprising.
political_economy  immigration  us_politics  civic_engagement  political_sociology  india  united_states_of_america  via:noahpinion 
december 2017 by rvenkat
The Polarizing Effects of Online Partisan Criticism: Evidence from Two ExperimentsThe International Journal of Press/Politics - Elizabeth Suhay, Emily Bello-Pardo, Brianna Maurer, 2018
Affective and social political polarization—a dislike of political opponents and a desire to avoid their company—are increasingly salient and pervasive features of politics in many Western democracies, particularly the United States. One contributor to these related phenomena may be increasing exposure to online political disagreements in which ordinary citizens criticize, and sometimes explicitly demean, opponents. This article presents two experimental studies that assessed whether U.S. partisans’ attitudes became more prejudiced in favor of the in-party after exposure to online partisan criticism. In the first study, we draw on an online convenience sample to establish that partisan criticism that derogates political opponents increases affective polarization. In the second, we replicate these findings with a quasi-representative sample and extend the pattern of findings to social polarization. We conclude that online partisan criticism likely has contributed to rising affective and social polarization in recent years between Democrats and Republicans in the United States, and perhaps between partisan and ideological group members in other developed democracies as well. We close by discussing the troubling implications of these findings in light of continuing attempts by autocratic regimes and other actors to influence democratic elections via false identities on social media.
political_science  online_experiments  polarization  democracy  partyism  us_politics  via:nyhan  dmce  teaching 
december 2017 by rvenkat
One Person, One Vote: Estimating the Prevalence of Double Voting in U.S. Presidential Elections | Michael Morse
There are about three million cases in a national voter fie in which 2012 vote records share a common first name, last name, and date of birth. We develop a probabilistic birthdate model to estimate how many of these cases represent the same person voting twice. If registration records are never erroneously marked as being used to vote, we estimate about 0.02% of the votes cast in 2012 were double votes. An audit of poll books, however, suggests that such measurement error could explain many of these apparent double votes. Using data returned to Iowa by the Interstate Crosscheck Program, we quantify the tradeoff between voter accessibility and electoral integrity when purging a likely duplicate registration from another state. We find that one of Crosscheck's proposed purging strategies would eliminate about 300 registrations used to cast a seemingly legitimate vote for every one registration used to cast a double vote.
us_elections  us_politics  voter_supression_complex  statistics  big_data  via:duncan.watts  for_friends 
december 2017 by rvenkat
Red fighting blue how geography and electoral rules polarize american politics | American government, politics and policy | Cambridge University Press
The national electoral map has split into warring regional bastions of Republican red and Democratic blue, producing a deep and enduring partisan divide in American politics. In Red Fighting Blue, David A. Hopkins places the current partisan and electoral era in historical context, explains how the increased salience of social issues since the 1980s has redefined the parties' geographic bases of support, and reveals the critical role that American political institutions play in intermediating between the behavior of citizens and the outcome of public policy-making. The widening geographic gap in voters' partisan preferences, as magnified further by winner-take-all electoral rules, has rendered most of the nation safe territory for either Democratic or Republican candidates in both presidential and congressional elections - with significant consequences for party competition, candidate strategy, and the operation of government.
book  us_politics  geography  polarization  history  political_science  via:nyhan 
november 2017 by rvenkat
Trump: The Intersectional President – tressiemc
-- a critique of critiques of identity politics, mostly interesting because of its use of cultural hegemony, intersectionality and all that. I am not a fan of _high theory_ or this essay but I do enjoy reading Cottom.
tressie.cottom  us_politics  trumpism  critical_theory  cultural_studies 
november 2017 by rvenkat
Instagram, Meme Seeding, and the Truth about Facebook Manipulation, Pt. 1
--idea of virality may be network dependent
-- an exercise in constructing multilayer networks, perhaps?
-- different networks, different kinds of contagion
-- define meme seeding
-- the article talks about social media analytics companies, peek inside their metrics?

-- Fun facts from the article: _Army of Jesus_ and _Intersectional Feminism_ were fake Russian Instagram accounts
us_politics  social_networks  networked_public_sphere  contagion  networks  teaching 
november 2017 by rvenkat
Immigrants Assimilate into the Political Mainstream | Cato Institute
-- somebody ought to do automated text analysis to look for systematic differences between reports produced by think tanks, newspaper reports and all their ilk and compare them with corresponding academic publications.
report  think_tank  us_politics  immigration  political_sociology  via:noahpinion 
november 2017 by rvenkat
Ethno-nationalist populism and the mobilization of collective resentment - Bonikowski - 2017 - The British Journal of Sociology - Wiley Online Library
Scholarly and journalistic accounts of the recent successes of radical-right politics in Europe and the United States, including the Brexit referendum and the Trump campaign, tend to conflate three phenomena: populism, ethno-nationalism and authoritarianism. While all three are important elements of the radical right, they are neither coterminous nor limited to the right. The resulting lack of analytical clarity has hindered accounts of the causes and consequences of ethno-nationalist populism. To address this problem, I bring together existing research on nationalism, populism and authoritarianism in contemporary democracies to precisely define these concepts and examine temporal patterns in their supply and demand, that is, politicians’ discursive strategies and the corresponding public attitudes. Based on the available evidence, I conclude that both the supply and demand sides of radical politics have been relatively stable over time, which suggests that in order to understand public support for radical politics, scholars should instead focus on the increased resonance between pre-existing attitudes and discursive frames. Drawing on recent research in cultural sociology, I argue that resonance is not only a function of the congruence between a frame and the beliefs of its audience, but also of shifting context. In the case of radical-right politics, a variety of social changes have engendered a sense of collective status threat among national ethnocultural majorities. Political and media discourse has channelled such threats into resentments toward elites, immigrants, and ethnic, racial and religious minorities, thereby activating previously latent attitudes and lending legitimacy to radical political campaigns that promise to return power and status to their aggrieved supporters. Not only does this form of politics threaten democratic institutions and inter-group relations, but it also has the potential to alter the contours of mainstream public discourse, thereby creating the conditions of possibility for future successes of populist, nationalist, and authoritarian politics.

--my summary: framing effects and latent preferences produce a mechanism for ethno-nationalism, authoritarianism and populism to interact. But I don't understand this *context* business as well. Feels like a _everything is obvious_ explanation...Not very convincing

-- see also the special issue
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/bjos.2017.68.issue-S1/issuetoc
us_politics  european_politics  brexit  trumpism  political_psychology  framing_effects  political_economy  behavioral_economics  democracy  public_opinion  social_movements  via:nyhan 
november 2017 by rvenkat
The Federal Spending Paradox: Economic Self-Interest and Symbolic Racism in Contemporary Fiscal PoliticsAmerican Politics Research - Katherine Krimmel, Kelly Rader, 2017
We show how symbolic politics condition public opinion on federal spending and how this helps to explain an important puzzle in contemporary American politics. Using multilevel regression and poststratification to estimate state-level opinion on federal spending, we show that, curiously, opposition to federal spending is higher in states receiving more federal money, per tax dollar paid. Belying the popular narrative surrounding so-called “red state socialism,” we find that simple hypocrisy does not explain this paradox—individuals who are likely to benefit from spending tend to support it. But, income is a more powerful predictor of opinion on spending in “taker” states than “giver” states, heightening state-level opposition in the former. There is also more to the story than economic self-interest. Symbolic racism is four times more powerful than income in explaining opposition to spending, and there are more people with such attitudes in states receiving more federal money.
political_psychology  public_opinion  public_policy  dmce  teaching  us_politics  via:nyhan 
november 2017 by rvenkat
How Responsive are Political Elites? A Meta-Analysis of Experiments on Public Officials* | Journal of Experimental Political Science | Cambridge Core
In the past decade, the body of research using experimental approaches to investigate the responsiveness of elected officials has grown exponentially. Given this explosion of work, a systematic assessment of these studies is needed not only to take stock of what we have learned so far about democratic responsiveness, but also to inform the design of future studies. In this article, I conduct the first meta-analysis of all experiments that examine elite responsiveness to constituent communication. I find that racial/ethnic minorities and messages sent to elected officials (as opposed to non-elected) are significantly less likely to receive a response. A qualitative review of the literature further suggests that some of these inequalities in responsiveness are driven by personal biases of public officials, rather than strategic, electoral considerations. The findings of this study provide important qualifications and context to prominent individual studies in the field.
us_politics  political_science  bias  discrimination  meta-analysis  democracy  via:nyhan  dmce  teaching 
october 2017 by rvenkat
Street Fighting Men: Antifa’s Origins in the ’60s and ’70s - Los Angeles Review of Books
--review disputes the cultural origins of Anti-Fa in the United States with historical arguments. It is quite possible that like, gender and queer studies, there is something uniquely American about Anti-Fa's origins.
book_review  us_politics  violence  protests  21st_century  anarchism  left  antifa  larb 
october 2017 by rvenkat
The Changing Norms of Racial Political Rhetoric and the End of Racial Priming: The Journal of Politics: Vol 0, No 0
We explore the conjecture that norms of racial rhetoric in US campaigns have shifted over the last several years. Prior work suggests that the way politicians talk about race affects the power of racial attitudes in political judgments. Racial priming theory suggests that explicit racial rhetoric—messages overtly hostile toward minorities—would be rejected. When race is cued subtly, however, the power of racial attitudes on issues is significantly enhanced. Replication attempts have recently failed. We identify two historically related shifts that lead us to expect that the effective distinction between explicit and implicit racial rhetoric has declined in recent years. Four nationally representative survey experiments strongly support our predictions: regardless of whether political messages are racially explicit or implicit, the power of racial attitudes is large and stable. Finally, many citizens recognize racially hostile content in political communications but are no longer angered or disturbed by it.
public_opinion  media_studies  race  polarization  democracy  historical_sociology  norms  us_politics 
october 2017 by rvenkat
Do Anti-Immigrant Laws Shape Public Sentiment? A Study of Arizona’s SB 1070 Using Twitter Data: American Journal of Sociology: Vol 123, No 2
Scholars have debated whether laws can influence public opinion, but evidence of these “feedback” effects is scant. This article examines the effect of Arizona’s 2010 high-profile anti-immigrant law, SB 1070, on both public attitudes and behaviors toward immigrants. Using sentiment analysis and a difference-in-difference approach to analyze more than 250,000 tweets, the author finds that SB 1070 had a negative impact on the average sentiment of tweets regarding immigrants, Mexicans, and Hispanics, but not on those about Asians or blacks. However, these changes in public discourse were not caused by shifting attitudes toward immigrants but by the mobilization of anti-immigrant users and by motivating new users to begin tweeting. While some scholars propose that punitive laws can shape people’s attitudes toward targeted groups, this study shows that policies are more likely to influence behaviors. Rather than placating the electorate, anti-immigrant laws may stir the pot further, mobilizing individuals already critical of immigrants.
law  public_opinion  mediation_analysis  causal_inference  ?  media_studies  twitter  political_psychology  us_politics  via:nyhan 
october 2017 by rvenkat
What really happened in 2016, in 7 charts - Vox
--yet another one on the theme of *what happened*, useful summary of third party contributions and comparisons with 2012.
us_elections  us_politics  2016  survey  vox 
september 2017 by rvenkat
Trumpism and American Democracy: History, Comparison, and the Predicament of Liberal Democracy in the United States by Robert C. Lieberman, Suzanne Mettler, Thomas B. Pepinsky, Kenneth M. Roberts, Richard Valelly :: SSRN
In the eyes of many citizens, activists, pundits, and scholars, American democracy appears under threat. Concern about President Trump and the future of American politics may be found among both conservatives and progressives; among voters, activists, and elites; and among many scholars and analysts of American and comparative politics. What is the nature of the Trumpism as a political phenomenon? And how much confidence should we have at present in the capacity of American institutions to withstand this threat?

In this essay, we argue that answering these questions and understanding what is uniquely threatening to democracy at the present moment requires looking beyond the contemporary particulars of Donald Trump and his presidency. Instead, it demands a historical and comparative perspective on American politics. Drawing on a range of insights from the fields of comparative politics and American political development, we argue that President Trump’s election in 2016 represents the intersection of three streams in American politics: polarized two-party presidentialism; a polity fundamentally divided over membership and status in the political community, in ways structured by race and economic inequality; and the erosion of democratic norms at the elite and mass levels. The current political circumstance is an existential threat to American democratic order because of the interactive effects of institutions, identity, and norm-breaking in American politics.
us_politics  political_science  institutions  democracy  autocracy  norms  trumpism  via:nyhan 
august 2017 by rvenkat
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