rvenkat + market_microstructure   33

Mic shuts down, a victim of management hubris and Facebook’s pivot to video - Columbia Journalism Review
--something similar happens in some universities where tech industry coercion decides specifics of tenure lines, courses and their content, etc.
fb  journalism  monopoly  market_microstructure  platform_economics 
7 weeks ago by rvenkat
Prediction Machines: The Simple Economics of Artificial Intelligence
"What does AI mean for your business? Read this book to find out." -- Hal Varian, Chief Economist, Google. Artificial intelligence does the seemingly impossible, magically bringing machines to life-driving cars, trading stocks, and teaching children. But facing the sea change that AI will bring can be paralyzing. How should companies set strategies, governments design policies, and people plan their lives for a world so different from what we know? In the face of such uncertainty, many analysts either cower in fear or predict an impossibly sunny future. But in "Prediction Machines," three eminent economists recast the rise of AI as a drop in the cost of prediction. With this single, masterful stroke, they lift the curtain on the AI-is-magic hype and show how basic tools from economics provide clarity about the AI revolution and a basis for action by CEOs, managers, policy makers, investors, and entrepreneurs. When AI is framed as cheap prediction, its extraordinary potential becomes clear: Prediction is at the heart of making decisions under uncertainty. Our businesses and personal lives are riddled with such decisions.; Prediction tools increase productivity--operating machines, handling documents, communicating with customers.; Uncertainty constrains strategy. Better prediction creates opportunities for new business structures and strategies to compete. Penetrating, fun, and always insightful and practical, "Prediction Machines" follows its inescapable logic to explain how to navigate the changes on the horizon. The impact of AI will be profound, but the economic framework for understanding it is surprisingly simple.

-- interesting pov but does not warrant a book length treatment. What about lowered cost of making mistakes, impact of economic forecasting with model mis-specification,....?
book  economics  prediction  automation  artificial_intelligence  machine_learning  market_microstructure  via:noahpinion  i_remain_skeptical 
november 2018 by rvenkat
[1207.7139] Traveling the Silk Road: A measurement analysis of a large anonymous online marketplace
We perform a comprehensive measurement analysis of Silk Road, an anonymous, international online marketplace that operates as a Tor hidden service and uses Bitcoin as its exchange currency. We gather and analyze data over eight months between the end of 2011 and 2012, including daily crawls of the marketplace for nearly six months in 2012. We obtain a detailed picture of the type of goods being sold on Silk Road, and of the revenues made both by sellers and Silk Road operators. Through examining over 24,400 separate items sold on the site, we show that Silk Road is overwhelmingly used as a market for controlled substances and narcotics, and that most items sold are available for less than three weeks. The majority of sellers disappears within roughly three months of their arrival, but a core of 112 sellers has been present throughout our measurement interval. We evaluate the total revenue made by all sellers, from public listings, to slightly over USD 1.2 million per month; this corresponds to about USD 92,000 per month in commissions for the Silk Road operators. We further show that the marketplace has been operating steadily, with daily sales and number of sellers overall increasing over our measurement interval. We discuss economic and policy implications of our analysis and results, including ethical considerations for future research in this area.
silkroad  cryptomarket  economics  dynamics  market_microstructure  crime 
march 2018 by rvenkat
Measuring the Longitudinal Evolution of the Online Anonymous Marketplace Ecosystem
February 2011 saw the emergence of Silk Road, the first successful online anonymous marketplace, in which buyers and sellers could transact with anonymity properties far superior to those available in alternative online or offline means of commerce. Business on Silk Road, primarily involving narcotics trafficking, rapidly boomed, and competitors emerged. At the same time, law enforcement did not sit idle, and eventually managed to shut down Silk Road in October 2013 and arrest its operator. Far from causing the demise of this novel form of commerce, the Silk Road take-down spawned an entire, dynamic, online anonymous marketplace ecosystem, which has continued to evolve to this day. This paper presents a long-term measurement analysis of a large portion of this online anonymous marketplace ecosystem, including 16 different marketplaces, over more than two years (2013–2015). By using long-term measurements, and combining our own data collection with publicly available previous efforts, we offer a detailed understanding of the growth of the online anonymous marketplace ecosystem. We are able to document the evolution of the types of goods being sold, and assess the effect (or lack thereof) of adversarial events, such as law enforcement operations or large-scale frauds, on the overall size of the economy. We also provide insights into how vendors are diversifying and replicating across marketplaces, and how vendor security practices (e.g., PGP adoption) are evolving. These different aspects help us understand how traditional, physical-world criminal activities are developing an online presence, in the same manner traditional commerce diversified online in the 1990s
silkroad  cryptomarket  dynamics  market_microstructure  crime  norms  via:? 
march 2018 by rvenkat
Amazon.com: The Big Picture: The Fight for the Future of Movies (9780544789760): Ben Fritz: Books
In the past decade, Hollywood has endured a cataclysm on a par with the end of silent film and the demise of the studio system. Stars and directors have seen their power dwindle, while writers and producers lift their best techniques from TV, comic books, and the toy biz. The future of Hollywood is being written by powerful corporate brands like Marvel, Amazon, Netflix, and Lego, as well as censors in China.

Ben Fritz chronicles this dramatic shakeup with unmatched skill, bringing equal fluency to both the financial and entertainment aspects of Hollywood. He dives deeply into the fruits of the Sony hack to show how the previous model, long a creative and commercial success, lost its way. And he looks ahead through interviews with dozens of key players at Disney, Marvel, Netflix, Amazon, Imax, and others to discover how they have reinvented the business. He shows us, for instance, how Marvel replaced stars with “universes,” and how Disney remade itself in Apple’s image and reaped enormous profits.

But despite the destruction of the studios’ traditional playbook, Fritz argues that these seismic shifts signal the dawn of a new heyday for film. The Big Picture shows the first glimmers of this new golden age through the eyes of the creative mavericks who are defining what our movies will look like in the new era.
book  movie_industry  market_microstructure  21st_century 
february 2018 by rvenkat
Bitcoin’s boom is a boon for extremist groups - The Washington Post
-- The article completely ignores the fact that bitcoin and _dark web_ is a boon for social activists all around the world. And implications for further surveillance of all transactions (good or bad) is completely unaddressed. A courtesy opinion from Tufekci might have helped. There are problems with the promise of blockchain technology but the tone suggests a irrational fear.
cryptocurrency  alt-right  market_microstructure  surveillance  democracy  extremism  social_movements  WaPo  phobia  moral_panic 
december 2017 by rvenkat
Smashwords – Whither Science? Three Essays – a book by Danko Antolovic
In this collection of essays we explore some basic questions facing science today. Modern science has become a truly global endeavor, which influences all of contemporary life, and like other great human endeavors, science has its own historical origins and intellectual foundations. It has a set of accepted principles, as well as actual practices that do not always follow the professed principles, and it has choices to make for the future. We look into the fundamental questions about the purposes, practices and future of science because we believe that both scientists and the broader public ‒ that is, all of us who benefit from science ‒ should be mindful of the social, historical and material consequences of science’s ubiquitous presence.

This book is written in non-technical language, and we intend it to be easily accessible to general readers who are interested in science and its broader implications. It will also be of interest to scientists who seek to explore the intellectual context of their discipline. No specialized technical knowledge is necessary to follow the book, and some scientific subjects that may not be readily familiar are briefly explained along the way. We make a few references to historical writings, and we encourage interested readers to pursue them further, but they are not essential for the understanding of these essays.

--a collection of three essays
book  sociology_of_science  practice  critique  market_failures  market_microstructure  via:gelman 
november 2017 by rvenkat
Social Media and Fake News in the 2016 Election
Following the 2016 US presidential election, many have expressed concern about the effects of false stories ("fake news"), circulated largely through social media. We discuss the economics of fake news and present new data on its consumption prior to the election. Drawing on web browsing data, archives of fact-checking websites, and results from a new online survey, we find: 1) social media was an important but not dominant source of election news, with 14 percent of Americans calling social media their "most important" source; 2) of the known false news stories that appeared in the three months before the election, those favoring Trump were shared a total of 30 million times on Facebook, while those favoring Clinton were shared 8 million times; 3) the average American adult saw on the order of one or perhaps several fake news stories in the months around the election, with just over half of those who recalled seeing them believing them; and 4) people are much more likely to believe stories that favor their preferred candidate, especially if they have ideologically segregated social media networks.
social_media  social_networks  misinformation  disinformation  contagion  microeconomics  market_microstructure  news_media  market_failures  networks  teaching  ` 
october 2017 by rvenkat
Measuring the Longitudinal Evolution of the Online Anonymous Marketplace Ecosystem | USENIX
February 2011 saw the emergence of Silk Road, the first successful online anonymous marketplace, in which buyers and sellers could transact with anonymity properties far superior to those available in alternative online or offline means of commerce. Business on Silk Road, primarily involving narcotics trafficking, rapidly boomed, and competitors emerged. At the same time, law enforcement did not sit idle, and eventually managed to shut down Silk Road in October 2013 and arrest its operator. Far from causing the demise of this novel form of commerce, the Silk Road take-down spawned an entire, dynamic, online anonymous marketplace ecosystem, which has continued to evolve to this day. This paper presents a long-term measurement analysis of a large portion of this online anonymous marketplace ecosystem, including 16 different marketplaces, over more than two years (2013– 2015). By using long-term measurements, and combining our own data collection with publicly available previous efforts, we offer a detailed understanding of the growth of the online anonymous marketplace ecosystem. We are able to document the evolution of the types of goods being sold, and assess the effect (or lack thereof) of adversarial events, such as law enforcement operations or large-scale frauds, on the overall size of the economy. We also provide insights into how vendors are diversifying and replicating across marketplaces, and how vendor security practices (e.g., PGP adoption) are evolving. These different aspects help us understand how traditional, physical-world criminal activities are developing an online presence, in the same manner traditional commerce diversified online in the 1990s.

--Can we get data?
networked_life  economics  market_microstructure  networks  teaching  via:henryfarrell 
june 2017 by rvenkat
Ivory Tower Wonks Help Traders Make a Quick Buck - Bloomberg
--very speculative, even by Noah Smith standards! but many interesting points
noah.smith  finance  market_failures  market_microstructure  dmce  teaching 
may 2017 by rvenkat
The Microstructure of the ‘Flash Crash’: Flow Toxicity, Liquidity Crashes and the Probability of Informed Trading by David Easley, Marcos Lopez de Prado, Maureen O'Hara :: SSRN
Abstract:
The ‘flash crash’ of May 6th 2010 was the second largest point swing (1,010.14 points) and the biggest one-day point decline (998.5 points) in the history of the Dow Jones Industrial Average. For a few minutes, $1 trillion in market value vanished. In this paper, we argue that the ‘flash crash’ is the result of the new dynamics at play in the current market structure. We highlight the role played by order toxicity in affecting liquidity provision, and we show that a measure of this toxicity, the Volume-Synchronized Probability of Informed Trading (VPIN)*, captures the increasing toxicity of the order flow in the hours and days prior to collapse. Since the ‘flash crash’ might have been avoided had liquidity providers remained in the marketplace, a solution is proposed in the form of a ‘VPIN contract’ which would allow them to dynamically monitor and manage their risks.

-- There were algorithmic-trading caused mini-crashes since then. Need to scavenge the interwebs....
market_microstructure  dynamics  phase_transition  ? 
june 2016 by rvenkat

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