France and Germany control the agenda and broker compromises, but they do not dictate Eurozone reforms | EUROPP
"During the Eurozone Crisis, but especially in the Merkozy period between 2010 and 2012, Franco-German cooperation facilitated the adoption of purely intergovernmental policies like the ESM or the Fiscal Compact, but also played an important role for policies like the legislative Six-Pack on economic governance or the complementary Two-Pack. […]

By contrast, joint Franco-German opposition leads to the elimination of issues from the EU negotiation agenda. […]

In sum, initial disagreements between France and Germany facilitate rather than prevent EMU reforms, when the two major EU countries act as an inner negotiation core for the Eurozone-19 or the EU-28."
eu:politics  eu:economy 
15 hours ago
Framing Crashed (8) - Provincializing Europe? – Adam Tooze
"All in all, Chakrabarty is right. Historical writing really did provincialize Europe from the mid-century. But the effects of that sudden and traumatic process were weird. They involved the production of a history of Europe’s 20th century that was not just short, in Eric Hobsbawm’s terms, but narrow: several sizes too small to fit the realities of the early 20th century."
history  eu:history  history:world  history:colonialism 
Congo voting data reveal huge fraud in poll to replace Kabila | Financial Times
"Martin Fayulu was the clear winner of the Democratic Republic of Congo’s presidential elections last month, a Financial Times analysis of two separate collections of voting data shows, contradicting claims from authorities that rival contender Felix Tshisekedi had won the historic vote. […]

The larger set of data, a spreadsheet containing more than 49,000 records, contains the true electronically-fed results that authorities have sought to conceal, according to a person with direct knowledge of how the data were obtained. The person, who is close to Mr Fayulu’s camp, asked for anonymity because the data contradict the electoral commission’s official declaration."
world:democratic-republic-of-congo  polisci:elections 
CRAN - Package parglm
"Provides a parallel estimation method for generalized linear models without compiling with a multithreaded LAPACK or BLAS." -- Via Anthony Damico.
stats:logit  r 
2 days ago
tidyverts · GitHub
"Tidy R packages for time series analysis"
r  stats:time-series 
3 days ago
It’s Still The Prices, Stupid: Why The US Spends So Much On Health Care, And A Tribute To Uwe Reinhardt | Health Affairs
"A 2003 article titled “It’s the Prices, Stupid,” and coauthored by the three of us and the recently deceased Uwe Reinhardt found that the sizable differences in health spending between the US and other countries were explained mainly by health care prices. As a tribute to him, we used Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) Health Statistics to update these analyses and review critiques of the original article. The conclusion that prices are the primary reason why the US spends more on health care than any other country remains valid, despite health policy reforms and health systems restructuring that have occurred in the US and other industrialized countries since the 2003 article’s publication. On key measures of health care resources per capita (hospital beds, physicians, and nurses), the US still provides significantly fewer resources compared to the OECD median country. Since the US is not consuming greater resources than other countries, the most logical factor is the higher prices paid in the US. Because the differential between what the public and private sectors pay for medical services has grown significantly in the past fifteen years, US policy makers should focus on prices in the private sector."
usa:health-policy  via:scottlgreer-on-twitter 
3 days ago
Bibliography - Bits of Language
Work in progress towards a page listing (web) corpus linguistics references and resources.
data:scraping  text:mining 
3 days ago
William Langewiesche - Wikipedia
"William Langewiesche is currently the international correspondent for the magazine Vanity Fair, a position he has held since 2006. Prior to that, he was the national correspondent for The Atlantic Monthly magazine where he was nominated for eight consecutive National Magazine Awards. He has written articles covering a wide range of topics from shipbreaking, wine critics, the Space Shuttle Columbia disaster, modern ocean piracy, nuclear proliferation, and the World Trade Center cleanup." -- Includes a list of articles.
journalism  travel 
3 days ago
European Protest and Coercion Data
Via Jeremy Vine's Data is Plural, to which it got submitted by a friend.
data:social-science  polisci:protest 
3 days ago
The World in Its Extreme - 91.11 (1991)
"In the south are four landlocked countries -- Mali, Niger, Chad, and Sudan. These are miserable places, bearing the brunt of the desert's expansion and plagued by civil wars. Along the coastline are the five countries of the Mahgreb: Mauritania, Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia, and Libya. None is happy. Mauritania is brutal and xenophobic; Morocco suffers under a reactionary king; Algeria and Tunisia are politically and economically bankrupt; Libya, the only wholly Saharan nation, has been cursed with Muammar Qaddafi. Egypt, to the east, along the Nile, is a riverine society with problems too intricate and particular to summarize here." -- On the Sahara desert, life in Tamanrasset (Algeria), and other things.
travel  geography  world:algeria 
3 days ago
Input: Fonts for Code — Preview
Looks right with Source Code letterforms (and with several others).
typography  programming 
3 days ago
Speech and Language Processing (3rd ed. draft)
Dan Jurafsky and James H. Martin
Draft chapters in progress, Sep 23, 2018
4 days ago
Xavier Amatriain's answer to What were the most significant machine learning/AI advances in 2018? - Quora
- NLP close to having its ImageNet moment
- Substantive points: causality, fairness
- Language models (e.g. UMLFit, BERT)
- PyTorch catching up on TensorFlow
5 days ago
Fiscal Crises
"This paper presents a new database of fiscal crises covering different country groups, including low-income developing countries (LIDCs) that have been mostly ignored in the past. Countries faced on average two crises since 1970, with the highest frequency in LIDCs and lowest in advanced economies."

@via Data Is Plural newsletter, by Jeremy Singer-Vine
data:economics  data:social-science  political-economy 
5 days ago
All That Was Solid
"In this interview with Jacobin’s Seth Ackerman, [Adam] Tooze considers the degeneration of the European project, the ability of US hegemony to stabilize global capitalism, and the prospects for the Left in forging a new economic model."

@via someone on Pinboard
political-economy  usa:economy  eu:economy 
5 days ago
Classification Accuracy as a Substantive Quantity of Interest: Measuring Polarization in Westminster Systems | Political Analysis | Cambridge Core
"Measuring the polarization of legislators and parties is a key step in understanding how politics develops over time. But in parliamentary systems—where ideological positions estimated from roll calls may not be informative—producing valid estimates is extremely challenging. We suggest a new measurement strategy that makes innovative use of the “accuracy” of machine classifiers, i.e., the number of correct predictions made as a proportion of all predictions." -- I'm not that convinced: the results show unexpected drops at several points, with no clear explanation.
stats:machine-learning  stats:text-analysis  polisci:parliaments  uk:politics 
7 days ago
Improving Predictions using Ensemble Bayesian Model Averaging | Political Analysis | Cambridge Core
"We present ensemble Bayesian model averaging (EBMA) and illustrate its ability to aid scholars in the social sciences to make more accurate forecasts of future events. In essence, EBMA improves prediction by pooling information from multiple forecast models to generate ensemble predictions similar to a weighted average of component forecasts. The weight assigned to each forecast is calibrated via its performance in some validation period. The aim is not to choose some “best” model, but rather to incorporate the insights and knowledge implicit in various forecasting efforts via statistical postprocessing. After presenting the method, we show that EBMA increases the accuracy of out-of-sample forecasts relative to component models in three applied examples: predicting the occurrence of insurgencies around the Pacific Rim, forecasting vote shares in U.S. presidential elections, and predicting the votes of U.S. Supreme Court Justices." (2012)
stats:bayesian  stats:prediction 
7 days ago
Political Analysis: Machine Learning special issue
From the introduction (Skyler Cranmer): "When I was a graduate student learning statistical methods for the first time, my first year professors routinely cautioned the students that they must always have a hypothesis prior to analyzing data and than “data mining” was a fruitless and misguided enterprise in the social sciences. While it seems this attitude is common in introductory graduate political science education, many years later I have now come to see it as almost entirely wrong."

The "Comically Brief History of Machine Learning" section of the introduction is also worth it.

Unrelated -- note at the bottom of the Web page: "The editorial staff of Political Analysis noticed that these contributions are from all male author teams. Given recent conference activity, including the 2018 Society for Political Methodology Annual Summer Meeting, we expect to receive and hopefully publish machine learning contributions from women authors in the near future."
stats:machine-learning  social-science 
8 days ago
Houellebecq : Homais romancier (Sérotonine)
"De telle sorte que le texte houellebecquien s’affirme, en s’écrivant, comme un effet d’opinion concerté, une opinion en action, fait encore partie de l’opinion en venant en être l’un des rouages les plus rutilants"
literature  fr:society 
8 days ago
"Creating APIs in R with Plumber," the book.
8 days ago
neubig/nlptutorial: A Tutorial about Programming for Natural Language Processing
"Tutorial 0: Programming Basics
Tutorial 1: Unigram Language Models
Tutorial 2: Bigram Language Models
Tutorial 3: Word Segmentation
Tutorial 4: Part-of-Speech Tagging with Hidden Markov Models
Tutorial 5: The Perceptron Algorithm
Tutorial 6: Advanced Discriminative Training
Tutorial 7: Neural Networks
Tutorial 8: Recurrent Neural Networks
Tutorial 9: Topic Models
Tutorial 10: Phrase Structure Parsing
Tutorial 11: Dependency Parsing
Tutorial 12: Structured Perceptron
Tutorial 13: Search Algorithms
Bonus 1: Kana-Kanji Conversion for Japanese Input" -- Both in English and Japanese. Impressssssive.
8 days ago
clauswilke/relayer: Rethinking layers in ggplot2
Breaks down unified (e.g. color, fill) layers into multiple ones, so that you get one legend per facet in small-multiples plots.
viz:ggplot2  r 
8 days ago
World Prison Brief | an online database comprising information on prisons and the use of imprisonment around the world
"The World Prison Brief is an online database providing free access to information on prison systems around the world."
violence:prison  data:social-science 
8 days ago
mixed_models | RubyGems.org | your community gem host
"Fit statistical (linear) models with fixed and mixed (random) effects in Ruby."
ruby  stats:multilevel 
8 days ago
explainshell.com - match command-line arguments to their help text
"This site contains 29761 parsed manpages from sections 1 and 8 found in Ubuntu's manpage repository. A lot of heuristics were used to extract the arguments of each program."
shell  programming 
8 days ago
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