petej + shortage   74

A no-deal Brexit won’t result in a siege. The EU will be more clinical than that | Tom Kibasi | Opinion | The Guardian
Instead, the EU’s response to a no deal will be strategic: opening up advantage, sector by sector, calmly and patiently dismantling the UK’s leading industries over the course of a decade. They will eat the elephant one bite at a time. The problem with abandoning the rules of the international order is that you no longer enjoy their protection.

A no-deal Brexit would hand the EU enormous power: it would decide how and when to introduce new frictions between the UK and the single market, giving sufficient time for firms like Airbus, Nissan or AstraZeneca to relocate production. As recent decisions have demonstrated, even seemingly fixed capital investment is more mobile than many Brexiters imagine.

The EU would set out a timeline over which it would introduce compliance and rules of origin checks on the UK’s most competitive exporting sectors. It is not hard to imagine checks on automotive parts from 2021, pharmaceuticals from 2022 and aerospace from 2023, alongside constantly shifting sands of equivalence for financial services. This would allow firms an orderly departure from the UK to the single market. It will be a steady drift away from the UK, not an avalanche. Moreover, the absence of any agreement would mean lasting uncertainty that would deter future investment. The UK is particularly exposed in this regard: our serious lack of competitiveness is demonstrated by persistently large trade deficits. This means the UK is heavily reliant on foreign investment – the “kindness of strangers” – which would likely collapse. It is not hard to imagine a future government going cap in hand to the IMF for a bailout.
UK  EU  Brexit  noDeal  delay  shortage  food  prices  imports  livingStandards  competition  industry  trade  regulation  compliance  investment  Nissan  dctagged  dc:creator=KibasiTom 
february 2019 by petej
'It is terrible but I still want it': Crewe voters size up no-deal Brexit | Politics | The Guardian
“Look at this,” he said, pointing to a paragraph about negotiating a banking collapse. “This is what’s coming.” He’d been stockpiling tins for months. A no-deal Brexit was going to make everyone poorer, he said. But it was worth it, if it meant the UK got control over immigration. That’s why he voted to leave the European Union: “We’ve got too many of them coming over here and I want it to stop.”
UK  EU  Brexit  Leave  noDeal  stockpiling  shortage  poverty  immigration  SmithLaura  CooperYvette  amendments  xenophobia  Crewe 
february 2019 by petej
David Davis: don't fear no-deal Brexit despite inevitable 'hiccups' | Politics | The Guardian
He added: “We are a big country, we can look after ourselves and we will look after ourselves very well indeed once we are properly out of the European Union.”
UK  EU  Brexit  noDeal  DavisDavid  politics  shortage  food  medicine 
november 2018 by petej
Stockpile food in the event of a no-deal Brexit? Dream on | James Ball | Opinion | The Guardian
The UK food sector, like the UK car industry and much of the high-end goods and services economy, is a finely tuned machine, and the sort of disruption we might see in the event of a no-deal Brexit, such as chaos and delays at the border, would result in it grinding to a halt.

With their comments – presumably meant to assure us that they have a plan, or at least a clue – May and her ministers have shown us instead how woefully under-prepared we are. Brexit is perhaps the most complex thing the UK has attempted in the lifetime of most of us, and it is being run by people who don’t understand the absolute basics. In 2016, these sorts of concerns were constantly dismissed as “Project Fear”. In 2018, we now know that we have good reason to be afraid.
UK  EU  Brexit  noDeal  food  shortage  scarcity  stockpiling  fear  dctagged  dc:creator=BallJames 
july 2018 by petej

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