petej + toryparty   1564

All the Brexit you can eat | Richard Seymour on Patreon
To get a parliamentary majority, she and everyone else knows perfectly well that she must drop Tory 'red lines'. She must negotiate seriously with Labour MPs and unions, make real concessions on workers' rights, and offer serious investment to Leave-voting constituencies.

Yes, that means fucking over her own headbanger backbenchers and the DUP. Yes, it risks a schism. Yes, her parliamentary situation is precarious enough. Yes, it means giving something to Jeremy Corbyn. But consider the results of actually securing a deal. Currently, businesses are hoarding a lot of capital. In the last year, we've seen the longest downswing in business investment outside of a recession for fifteen yeas. On top of that, almost a trillion pounds in assets and investments has been withdrawn from the City in fear of a "no deal" Brexit. (They call this 'Brexodus', because of course they do.)

In the event of a deal, even May's dismal deal, all that investment comes flooding back in. Unless the inevitable recession hits before then, it means a significant bump in economic growth in an otherwise weak economy, a bonus for Treasury receipts and a chance for Philip Hammond to relax the purse strings. All that money being set aside for 'no deal' preparations could be handed out to government departments. The Tories would have delivered on an historic mission, the Remoaners would be temporarily marginalised, Labour would be weakened, and May would get quite a lot of cachet from affluent centre-ground voters for standing up to her nutters. I would expect the Conservatives to start polling in the mid-Forties if they achieved that. Given the degree of fragmentation of public opinion on Brexit, any definite resolution would likely be welcomed. That would surely weaken the hand of right-wing splitters.
UK  EU  Brexit  withdrawalAgreement  meaningfulVote  MayTheresa  politics  ERG  ToryParty  redLines  strategy  dctagged  dc:creator=SeymourRichard 
5 days ago by petej
Labour’s Brexit Policy |
To sum up – I started with three simple rival ‘narratives’ of Labour’s underlying position on Brexit. I’ve articulated my own interpretation of Labour’s position, which implies that all of these narratives have something to them. In my view, Labour’s preferred Brexit outcome involves significant breaks with existing EU governance rules. The leadership wants those breaks to be in the area of neoliberal constraints on socialist policy-making; much of the PLP wants those breaks to be in the area of freedom of movement. In a scenario where Labour is in government without the Brexit deal having been concluded, those two categories of negotiating priority will be in tension. Nevertheless, the tension between those two categories of negotiating priority is (I would argue) not as fundamental as the tension between some of the Conservatives’ commitments. Moreover, unlike the Conservatives, Labour have been quite careful not to articulate any commitments that cannot be backed down from towards greater compatibility with existing EU rules. Thus in a scenario in which Labour were negotiating with the EU, I would expect Labour to make an effort to achieve a set of concessions around EU rules, and if those concessions could not be achieved, to capitulate in the direction of a more liberal existing-EU-institutions-aligned position.
UK  EU  Brexit  politics  LabourParty  Remain  Leave  trade  economy  Bennism  Euroscepticism  immigration  borders  freedomOfMovement  customsUnion  singleMarket  ambiguity  tactics  flexibility  ToryParty  redLines  negotiations  strategy 
5 days ago by petej
The Tories are tough on Islamophobia? What a joke | Jonathan Freedland | Opinion | The Guardian
It means that both main UK parties are now facing accusations of institutional racism. Some will wonder why, of the two, it’s the issue of Labour antisemitism that has so far garnered the greater attention. One explanation is not flattering to the Tory party. It is simply that people expect much less of the Tories than they do of an avowedly anti-racist party such as Labour. Put another way, if the Tory party is riddled with bigotry towards a minority, it hardly comes as a surprise.
UK  politics  ToryParty  Islamophobia  JohnsonBoris  GoldsmithZac  KhanSadiq  BlackmanBob  FabricantMichael  WarsiSayeeda  dctagged  dc:creator=FreedlandJonathan 
13 days ago by petej
Robert Peston - We have a Tory government and governing... | Facebook
First, will she stick to government policy and - via a three-line whip - force MPs and ministers to vote to keep the option of leaving without a deal on 29 March on the table?

Were she to do this, she would probably precipitate the resignations of more than 20 ministers from cabinet and lower ranks. Which is the sort of accident most PM's would rather avoid.

But were she to allow a free vote, she would be conceding that on one of the most important questions of this age or any, she and the government used to have a position and a view, but now she doesn't.

Which is not a great look.

Second, if there is a free vote, how would she vote?

If for a no-deal Brexit, then she would probably be on the losing side, which would look very odd (to say the least), though she is racking up these historic losses like a school child collecting Pokemon game cards.

And if she votes against, then she would be betraying what she has claimed for months is in the interest of the nation.

So what will she do? How will she whip her party and vote herself in that historic no-deal vote next week?

I asked her ministers. None have a clue. She won't tell them.

How would they recommend she votes?

I asked one I would normally expect to be less religious on this issue than most.

This is what he said: "she should give a free vote and then vote herself to rule out leaving the EU without a Withdrawal Agreement(without a deal)".

So the recommended position for this prime minister, according to one of her closest allies and supporters, would be to abandon the pretence that the government is in charge of leaving the EU - and also to admit that what she has been telling us about the virtues of no deal have been so much piffle.
UK  politics  Brexit  ToryParty  ERG  LabourParty  leadership  anti-Semitism  withdrawalAgreement  meaningfulVote  CoxGeoffrey  backstop  legal  noDeal  MayTheresa  dctagged  dc:creator=PestonRobert 
14 days ago by petej
mainly macro: We need a political party that is tough on the causes of Brexit
Brexit was not an aberration in an otherwise well functioning UK democracy, any more than Trump was in the US. They are symptoms of a deeper malaise. I cannot put it better than Anthony Barnett when he says if all you want to do is stop Brexit and Trump and go back to what you regard as normal, you miss that what was normal led to Brexit and Trump. Unless we have politicians in power who understand the need for radical change, the snake oil sellers who sold us Brexit and US voters Trump will happily carry on plying their wares.
UK  EU  Brexit  austerity  politics  economics  finance  crisis  UKIP  ge2015  economy  coalition  deficit  ToryParty  media  propaganda  immigration  IndependentGroup  dctagged  dc:creator=Wren-LewisSimon 
19 days ago by petej
Interview with Kenneth Clarke on Brexit - SPIEGEL ONLINE
Clarke: It's a very nasty climate out there. People are retreating into angry simplicities. Half the population is angry about politicians not getting on with it, they're not following the detail, they haven't a clue what the Irish backstop is, and they couldn't care less. They just want it to be over. The other half does follow quite fairly, intensely, more than usual. They are divided in angry remainers who are ever more ferociously for remaining and angry leavers who ever more ferociously feel they are being betrayed.
UK  EU  politics  Brexit  ClarkeKenneth  interview  DerSpiegel  ToryParty  withdrawalAgreement  compromise  backstop  ERG  nationalism  ThatcherMargaret  DelorsJacques  MaastrichtTreaty  Euro  CameronDavid  polarisation  Leave  Remain 
27 days ago by petej
Conservatives react angrily to defeat of May's Brexit plan | Politics | The Guardian
One former minister said the “fake consensus” in the party around the Brady amendment had been exposed by Wednesday night’s vote. “It was never going to last. She has to pick. Either she’s serious about doing a no deal if necessary, in which case she’s a Ukip prime minister, and keeps the ERG onside but fractures the rest of the party, or she rules it out and she’s a Conservative PM but loses the ERG. At the moment she’s nowhere and pleasing no one. It’s about choices. And she won’t make one.”
UK  politics  ToryParty  Brexit  ERG  BolesNick  MayTheresa  BarclayStephen  noDeal  BradyGraham  AllenHeidi  SoubryAnna 
4 weeks ago by petej
Why A No-Deal Brexit Is Now Theresa May's Fallback Plan To Save Her Party – And Herself | HuffPost UK
One source says: “She’s been told – ‘You need to understand prime minister, it’s very simple maths – the ERG [European Research Group] will fuck you, fuck the Conservative party and they will throw themselves over a cliff. Your Remainer colleagues will not’. It’s who’s got the biggest balls.”

“The Remainers need a gameplan to show Julian [Smith] is wrong on this. At the moment, they are rolling over having tummies tickled. And she’s thrown all her weight behind the chief whip.

“She gets to save her party and potentially gets to live for another day. She will be the PM who delivered Brexit. She can blame Parliament and Tusk, Juncker and the EU [for no-deal] and say I managed it as best as anyone could.

“She’s home and dry as long as she sits tight with the Brexiteers who only a few weeks ago wanted her head. It’s utterly tragic.”

====

“A lot of people are in despair. The sensible ones have their head in their hands, the nutters we kept at the door for 40 odd years are now in control. We thought they were dead after they didn’t get rid of her. They are back in control, because they are willing to blow the house up.”
UK  EU  Brexit  withdrawalAgreement  noDeal  MayTheresa  negotiations  backstop  DUP  meaningfulVote  SmithJulian  LewisBrandon  ToryParty  customsUnion  CorbynJeremy  LancasterHouse  WilkinsChris  FoxLiam  customsArrangement  Chequers  regulatoryAlignment  BradyGraham  amendments  ERG  immigration  Leave  politics 
5 weeks ago by petej
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