petej + northernireland   250

Brexit: No-deal impact assessment published - BBC News
It said the worst-hit areas economically in a no-deal scenario would be Wales (-8.1%), Scotland (-8.0%), Northern Ireland (-9.1%) and the north east (-10.5%).
UK  EU  Brexit  noDeal  impact  SoubryAnna  customs  food  prices  business  Dover  delay  economy  NorthernIreland  North-East 
11 weeks ago by petej
Nick Timothy is wrong – he is the one who killed Brexit, not Theresa May
I know that looking for self-awareness from Nick Timothy is like looking for moral philosophy from a cow, but hang about: “the week that Brexit was finally killed” was the week of 18 May 2017: when Theresa May launched her manifesto, a politically toxic document that insulted the young, offended the elderly and alienated the middle-aged. The most damaging policy of all was that concerning social care: one authored by Nick Timothy, the object of concern to his co-chief, Fiona Hill, and the then health secretary Jeremy Hunt.

The damage that did to Theresa May’s popularity and to the Conservative campaign was decisive in the election result – which returned a Parliament which will only be able to agree a Norway-type Brexit. That is the clear and inescapable truth of every serious post-mortem of what happened to the Conservative Party in the final weeks of the campaign.

The reason why May can't make this argument personally is that it means returning to the scene of the crime: telling Conservative MPs that not only did her maladroit conduct of the 2017 campaign cost them their majority and the careers of their colleagues and friends, but that it locks them into a Brexit trajectory in which the only available exits are ones that most Conservative MPs fear will be politically disastrous. But if Nick Timothy wants to identify the week that Brexit was “killed”, he should look to the past: and if he wants to know the culprit, he should look in the mirror.
UK  EU  Brexit  withdrawalAgreement  politics  DUP  Ireland  NorthernIreland  borders  Norway  MayTheresa  ToryParty  ge2017  socialCare  manifesto  TimothyNick  dctagged  dc:creator=BushStephen 
december 2018 by petej
Clear-cut Brexit legal advice reinforces backstop concerns | Politics | The Guardian
It has often been a complex debate, but Cox cuts through. Northern Ireland will remain in the EU’s single market for goods while Great Britain does not, meaning that “GB is essentially treated as a third country by NI for goods passing from GB to NI”. It is language that did not take long to trigger a hostile reaction from the unionist party that is supposed to prop up May’s government.
UK  EU  Brexit  withdrawalAgreement  backstop  Ireland  NorthernIreland  legal  advice  CoxGeoffrey  singleMarket  borders  DUP  ERG  politics 
december 2018 by petej
Decline and Fall: What Next for May’s Deal? | Novara Media
The third option is a general election. Without the fixed-term Act passed to shore up the Cameron-Clegg coalition, such an election would already be underway; it is the natural remedy for political impasse. An election allows not only a conversation about Brexit in narrow technical terms, but to put to the country the profoundly differing visions of the future which now exist between the two major parties, including a throughgoing rejection of Conservative economics, a rebalancing of the country’s disgorged financial sector, and an end to the punitive austerity of the past Tory administrations. Such an election would be difficult for Labour: it would require the party to clarify its Brexit plans beyond the six tests, in explicit propositional terms, and require a future Labour government to push for renegotiation under an extended Article 50, in order to rectify the mess and incompetence of the Tory negotiating team. This seems the best strategy for the left in Labour: it will require those active in the party to demand their MPs refuse Tory fear-mongering and the siren call of Soubry’s national government.

As we enter what looks like the endgame of May’s ministry, the sights of the left ought to be focused on the possibility of a transformational, socialist government. Behind the political churn, deep questions lurk: what sovereignty looks like in a globalised world, how to rectify the decades of wreckage inflicted by successive governments on this country and its working class, how to adequately tackle the planetary death spiral capitalism has locked us into. Only the left can answer those questions – and it now must.
UK  EU  Brexit  withdrawalAgreement  MayTheresa  ToryParty  politics  DUP  customsUnion  NorthernIreland  Scotland  SNP  LabourParty  stateAid  Parliament  leadership  1922Committee  BarnierMichel  GNU  SoubryAnna  referendum  generalElection  TheLeft  dctagged  dc:creator=ButlerJames 
november 2018 by petej
How Brexit Broke Up Britain | by Fintan O’Toole | NYR Daily | The New York Review of Books
Another word for “control” is “regulation.” The fundamental appeal of Brexit is that the British have had too much regulation imposed from Brussels and desire in the future to regulate themselves. Thus the British will control their own environmental safeguards, their own food safety, their own labor standards, their own laws on competition and monopolies. The EU does indeed do many of these things and there is a perfectly coherent argument to be made that the British state should do them instead. It is a safe bet that this is what most people who voted for Brexit want and expect.

But that’s not actually what Brexit is about. The real agenda of the Hard Brexiteers is not, in this sense, about taking back control; it is about letting go of control. For people like Dominic Raab, the Brexit secretary, the dream is not of a change in which regulation happens, but of a completion of the deregulating neoliberal project set in motion by Margaret Thatcher in 1979. The Brexit fantasy is of an “open” and “global” Britain, unshackled from EU regulation, that can lower its environmental, health, and labor standards and unleash a new golden age of buccaneering hyper-capitalism. Again, this is a perfectly coherent (if repellent) agenda. But it is not what most of those who voted for Brexit think it is supposed to be. And this gap makes it impossible to say what “the British” want—they want contradictory things.

The second question is who is supposed to be taking control: Who, in other words, are “the people” to whom power is supposedly being returned? Here we find the other thing that dare not speak its name: English nationalism. Brexit is in part a response to a development that has been underway since the turn of the century. In reaction to the Belfast Agreement of 1998 that created a new political space in Northern Ireland and the establishment of the Scottish Parliament in 1999 that did the same for another part of the UK, there has been a rapid change in the way English people see their national identity. Increasingly, they are not British, but English. This resurgent identity has not been explicitly articulated by any mainstream party and surveys have shown a growing sense of English alienation from the center of London government in Westminster and Whitehall. Brexit, which is overwhelming an English phenomenon, is in part an expression of this frustration. In Anthony Barnett’s blunt and pithy phrase from his 2017 book The Lure of Greatness: England’s Brexit and America’s Trump, “Unable to exit Britain, the English did the next-best thing and told the EU to fuck off.”

There is stark and overwhelming evidence that the English people who voted for Brexit do not, on the whole, care about the United Kingdom and in particular do not care about that part of it called Northern Ireland. When asked in the recent “Future of England” survey whether “the unravelling of the peace process in Northern Ireland” is a “price worth paying” for Brexit that allows them to “take back control,” fully 83 percent of Leave voters and 73 percent of Conservative voters in England agree that it is. This is not, surely, mere mindless cruelty; it expresses a deep belief that Northern Ireland is not “us,” that what happens “over there” is not “our” responsibility. Equally, in the Channel 4 survey, asked how they would feel if “Brexit leads to Northern Ireland leaving the United Kingdom and joining the Republic of Ireland,” 61 percent of Leave voters said they would be “not very concerned” or “not at all concerned.”
UK  EU  Brexit  withdrawalAgreement  customsUnion  MayTheresa  ToryParty  CorbynJeremy  LabourParty  opposition  ThornberryEmily  StarmerKeir  referendum  regulation  deregulation  control  neoliberalism  hardBrexit  England  nationalism  NorthernIreland  dctagged  dc:creator=O'TooleFintan 
november 2018 by petej
Eurointelligence - Public: Now what?
We remain reluctant to assign numerical probabilities to outcomes, but make the following observations. The chances of parliament approving a deal are not zero. It will become progressively harder for so-called pro-Europeans to reject a deal that is endorsed by the EU itself. Moreover, the EU will pour cold water on any second referendum fantasies. We would not rule out that the EU’s own position will leave at least some of the Remainers conflicted, as well as Tory eurosceptics whose political careers would be jeopardised by early elections. The voting behaviour of MPs could thus very well depend on the opinion polls nearer the time of a vote.

Our second observation is that the UK parliament might vote twice on the deal - a rejection at first, followed by an election, followed by a renewed vote. This could all happen within the current Brexit timetable. If there is a special Brexit summit at the end of November, parliament could hold a first vote on ratification before Christmas. Elections could take place in February. The EU will not renegotiate the withdrawal agreement, but there may be scope for rewording the political declaration. If the Tories win, the same agreement will be presented to the new parliament - in this case as a straight deal versus no-deal choice. If Labour wins, we presume that Corbyn would press ahead with a reworded political declaration that foresees the UK remaining in the customs union and single market for good. The withdrawal agreement itself is not in conflict with Labour’s version of a Brexit, as it would leave open the possibility of a permanent customs union. We doubt strongly that Corbyn would want to call a referendum if he were to become prime minister. He would be in the enviable position to blame the mess on the Tories, cut a deal with the EU, and then move on.
UK  EU  Brexit  withdrawalAgreement  MayTheresa  Cabinet  politics  backstop  customsUnion  NorthernIreland  ERG  LabourParty 
november 2018 by petej
Theresa May's Brexit deal: everything you need to know | Politics | The Guardian
The solution involves concessions on both sides. On the EU side, the chief negotiator, Michel Barnier, has accepted the idea of a whole-UK customs union with the EU, satisfying the UK’s demands that its territorial integrity must be preserved.

But in return, Britain must agree that it will not be allowed to exit the backstop unless and until the EU agrees there is no prospect of a return to a hard border. In addition, it will have to accept special “deeper” customs arrangements for Northern Ireland, and the EU’s so-called “level playing-field” conditions for the whole of the UK.

These address member states’ concerns that de facto customs union membership without the obligations of the single market could give the UK an unfair advantage, so will require Britain to observe EU rules on, for example, state aid, competition, the environment, tax and labour market rules.
UK  EU  Brexit  withdrawalAgreement  Cabinet  borders  Ireland  NorthernIreland  backstop  transition  customsUnion  Parliament  politics 
november 2018 by petej
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