petej + erg   150

Adapt or die: how the Conservative party keeps power | Politics | The Guardian
Johnson won the referendum and then the leadership by siding firmly with the Brexiters in the party, and has reshaped the cabinet and the parliamentary party accordingly. The party risks shedding a large part of its base among moderate Conservative Remain voters, and is seeking to replace them with Labour working-class Leave voters. Johnson’s strategy is all about England. It treats the union as dispensable. The Conservative recovery in Remain-voting Scotland under Ruth Davidson is going into reverse, and Davidson has departed.

The new withdrawal agreement with the EU has been achieved by betraying the Conservatives’ DUP allies in Northern Ireland. In 1912 the Conservatives became the Conservative and Unionist party. It does not seem very appropriate any longer. Perhaps it is time for a new name: the Conservative and Brexit party.
UK  politics  history  ToryParty  conservatism  adaptation  Disraeli  OneNation  pragmatism  Thattcherism  Brexit  Leave  class  JohnsonBoris  membership  age  MajorJohn  MasstrichtTreaty  MayTheresa  ERG 
11 days ago by petej
Remain should push for an election
But the last few days have seen two knife-edge votes in the Commons. If either had gone for the government, Brexit would be about to happen. It would be game over. We came seriously close. We can't keep on surviving like this.

We are completely powerless in these events. We have to watch as MPs behave in ways that don't always make sense. The whole issue is being decided on the tightest of margins, by politicians who are exhausted and under enormous emotional pressure.

An election is not an ideal way to sort this. A referendum is. But we have to work with what we've got. And at least an election allows people a chance to get involved, to do something, to work on a campaign of securing Remain seats where they can be won - to have agency. It's better than simply having to sit here and watch BBC Parliament night after night in a state of high anxiety.

That has a democratic dimension too. If this thing is happening, at least let the public get involved in it. At least lets have them give some form of input, no matter how imperfect, to validate what is happening.

So, in summary: God knows. What a mess. But probably, overall, an election is the right way to go.
UK  EU  Brexit  politics  withdrawalAgreement  WAB  JohnsonBoris  Remain  transition  customsUnion  employment  regulation  rights  ERG  DUP  generalElection  ge2019  LabourParty  CorbynJeremy  campaigning  dctagged  dc:creator=DuntIan 
17 days ago by petej
How Brexit Will End | The New Yorker
Brexit is an uncanny political process because it is an inversion of the way that things were supposed to go. The world was becoming only more connected; money and people flowed. Europe was leading the experiment. And then a population said no. In 2016, Remainers tended to make economic arguments for staying in the E.U., while Leavers spoke about sovereignty and the health of the nation. In truth, it was a matter of instinct for both sides: were you prepared to go on sharing your agency with international forces of unimaginable scale, or did you believe that an old country could somehow reassert itself and claw out its own domain? The question was more philosophical than real. Being a member of the E.U. cost less than two per cent of Britain’s national budget. Most of us did not care. But, once the question was asked, it became fundamental, and the prelude to every future question. Choosing Brexit meant that we would diverge. We would diverge from Europe, and we would diverge from one another.
UK  EU  Brexit  referendum  politics  JohnsonBoris  withdrawalAgreement  dishonesty  evasion  CummingsDominic  VoteLeave  propaganda  language  discourse  WorldWarII  noDeal  OperationYellowhammer  PeoplesVote  deregulation  standards  economy  impact  publicSpending  ERG  BakerSteve  Rees-MoggJacob  England  nationalism  GaukeDavid  GrieveDominic  BurtAlistair  NorthernIreland  Ireland  GoodFridayAgreement  borders  backstop  MayTheresa  negotiations  DUP  VaradkarLeo  Liverpool  customs  regulatoryAlignment  WAB  HouseOfCommons  dctagged  dc:creator=KnightSam 
18 days ago by petej
Here’s why Boris Johnson’s plans have every chance of falling apart | Tom Kibasi | Opinion | The Guardian
In truth, Brexit is best understood as a prism through which an argument about the future of the country has been refracted. That’s why the argument over the level playing-field provisions in the political declaration is so important. For the ERG, the strategic purpose of Brexit has always been to deregulate at home in order to strike trade deals with the US and emerging markets, since most modern trade deals are less about tariffs and more about regulation, and their political goal is to realign Britain from the EU to the US.

Meanwhile, wavering Labour MPs have sought assurances on high standards, workers’ rights and environmental protections – which are all essential to keeping Britain a social democracy with a mixed economy. But both versions of the future cannot be true. This isn’t a matter of opinion but logic. Britain cannot be Sweden and Singapore at the same time. It can’t be in the US regulatory sphere and the EU sphere simultaneously.
UK  EU  Brexit  JohnsonBoris  withdrawalAgreement  NorthernIreland  regulatoryAlignment  checking  trade  freeTradeAgreement  USA  deregulation  ERG  standards  rights  Europe  LabourParty  politicalDeclaration  politics  dctagged  dc:creator=KibasiTom 
28 days ago by petej
How the Long, Slow Death of Neoliberalism Sent the Conservative Party Into Crisis | Novara Media
Despite the ambitions of a man who once wished to be “world king”, sheer force of vision and will has not been enough to broker a deal in parliament, let alone forcibly break and reforge the country as Thatcher did. And in the long term, it’s not clear how Johnson and Cummings plan to maintain that mythically renewed mandate and its nationalist fervour in light of a no-deal Brexit recession. Perhaps a further nightmarish turn to authoritarianism, or slinking off into the opposition benches to lick their wounds and regroup. Perhaps a split. Perhaps an annihilation at the polls. We will see in the coming months whether it is possible for the Conservatives to renew themselves – as an electoral force, as the people in charge of a newly brutal economic ‘common sense’. Or if they will continue to nurture the managed decline of their own world order before socialism or barbarism sweeps them away.
UK  politics  ToryParty  Brexit  noDeal  JohnsonBoris  deselection  withdrawalAgreement  backstop  economy  growth  investment  wages  stagnation  inequality  neoliberalism  state  Thatcherism  debt  crash  homeOwnership  prices  deregulation  finance  Singapore  ERG  dctagged  dc:creator=PennyEleanor 
8 weeks ago by petej
All the Brexit you can eat | Richard Seymour on Patreon
To get a parliamentary majority, she and everyone else knows perfectly well that she must drop Tory 'red lines'. She must negotiate seriously with Labour MPs and unions, make real concessions on workers' rights, and offer serious investment to Leave-voting constituencies.

Yes, that means fucking over her own headbanger backbenchers and the DUP. Yes, it risks a schism. Yes, her parliamentary situation is precarious enough. Yes, it means giving something to Jeremy Corbyn. But consider the results of actually securing a deal. Currently, businesses are hoarding a lot of capital. In the last year, we've seen the longest downswing in business investment outside of a recession for fifteen yeas. On top of that, almost a trillion pounds in assets and investments has been withdrawn from the City in fear of a "no deal" Brexit. (They call this 'Brexodus', because of course they do.)

In the event of a deal, even May's dismal deal, all that investment comes flooding back in. Unless the inevitable recession hits before then, it means a significant bump in economic growth in an otherwise weak economy, a bonus for Treasury receipts and a chance for Philip Hammond to relax the purse strings. All that money being set aside for 'no deal' preparations could be handed out to government departments. The Tories would have delivered on an historic mission, the Remoaners would be temporarily marginalised, Labour would be weakened, and May would get quite a lot of cachet from affluent centre-ground voters for standing up to her nutters. I would expect the Conservatives to start polling in the mid-Forties if they achieved that. Given the degree of fragmentation of public opinion on Brexit, any definite resolution would likely be welcomed. That would surely weaken the hand of right-wing splitters.
UK  EU  Brexit  withdrawalAgreement  meaningfulVote  MayTheresa  politics  ERG  ToryParty  redLines  strategy  dctagged  dc:creator=SeymourRichard 
march 2019 by petej
Robert Peston - We have a Tory government and governing... | Facebook
First, will she stick to government policy and - via a three-line whip - force MPs and ministers to vote to keep the option of leaving without a deal on 29 March on the table?

Were she to do this, she would probably precipitate the resignations of more than 20 ministers from cabinet and lower ranks. Which is the sort of accident most PM's would rather avoid.

But were she to allow a free vote, she would be conceding that on one of the most important questions of this age or any, she and the government used to have a position and a view, but now she doesn't.

Which is not a great look.

Second, if there is a free vote, how would she vote?

If for a no-deal Brexit, then she would probably be on the losing side, which would look very odd (to say the least), though she is racking up these historic losses like a school child collecting Pokemon game cards.

And if she votes against, then she would be betraying what she has claimed for months is in the interest of the nation.

So what will she do? How will she whip her party and vote herself in that historic no-deal vote next week?

I asked her ministers. None have a clue. She won't tell them.

How would they recommend she votes?

I asked one I would normally expect to be less religious on this issue than most.

This is what he said: "she should give a free vote and then vote herself to rule out leaving the EU without a Withdrawal Agreement(without a deal)".

So the recommended position for this prime minister, according to one of her closest allies and supporters, would be to abandon the pretence that the government is in charge of leaving the EU - and also to admit that what she has been telling us about the virtues of no deal have been so much piffle.
UK  politics  Brexit  ToryParty  ERG  LabourParty  leadership  anti-Semitism  withdrawalAgreement  meaningfulVote  CoxGeoffrey  backstop  legal  noDeal  MayTheresa  dctagged  dc:creator=PestonRobert 
march 2019 by petej
Interview with Kenneth Clarke on Brexit - SPIEGEL ONLINE
Clarke: It's a very nasty climate out there. People are retreating into angry simplicities. Half the population is angry about politicians not getting on with it, they're not following the detail, they haven't a clue what the Irish backstop is, and they couldn't care less. They just want it to be over. The other half does follow quite fairly, intensely, more than usual. They are divided in angry remainers who are ever more ferociously for remaining and angry leavers who ever more ferociously feel they are being betrayed.
UK  EU  politics  Brexit  ClarkeKenneth  interview  DerSpiegel  ToryParty  withdrawalAgreement  compromise  backstop  ERG  nationalism  ThatcherMargaret  DelorsJacques  MaastrichtTreaty  Euro  CameronDavid  polarisation  Leave  Remain 
february 2019 by petej
Conservatives react angrily to defeat of May's Brexit plan | Politics | The Guardian
One former minister said the “fake consensus” in the party around the Brady amendment had been exposed by Wednesday night’s vote. “It was never going to last. She has to pick. Either she’s serious about doing a no deal if necessary, in which case she’s a Ukip prime minister, and keeps the ERG onside but fractures the rest of the party, or she rules it out and she’s a Conservative PM but loses the ERG. At the moment she’s nowhere and pleasing no one. It’s about choices. And she won’t make one.”
UK  politics  ToryParty  Brexit  ERG  BolesNick  MayTheresa  BarclayStephen  noDeal  BradyGraham  AllenHeidi  SoubryAnna 
february 2019 by petej
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