nhaliday + walls   41

An adaptability limit to climate change due to heat stress
Despite the uncertainty in future climate-change impacts, it is often assumed that humans would be able to adapt to any possible warming. Here we argue that heat stress imposes a robust upper limit to such adaptation. Peak heat stress, quantified by the wet-bulb temperature TW, is surprisingly similar across diverse climates today. TW never exceeds 31 °C. Any exceedence of 35 °C for extended periods should induce hyperthermia in humans and other mammals, as dissipation of metabolic heat becomes impossible. While this never happens now, it would begin to occur with global-mean warming of about 7 °C, calling the habitability of some regions into question. With 11–12 °C warming, such regions would spread to encompass the majority of the human population as currently distributed. Eventual warmings of 12 °C are possible from fossil fuel burning. One implication is that recent estimates of the costs of unmitigated climate change are too low unless the range of possible warming can somehow be narrowed. Heat stress also may help explain trends in the mammalian fossil record.

Trajectories of the Earth System in the Anthropocene: http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2018/07/31/1810141115
We explore the risk that self-reinforcing feedbacks could push the Earth System toward a planetary threshold that, if crossed, could prevent stabilization of the climate at intermediate temperature rises and cause continued warming on a “Hothouse Earth” pathway even as human emissions are reduced. Crossing the threshold would lead to a much higher global average temperature than any interglacial in the past 1.2 million years and to sea levels significantly higher than at any time in the Holocene. We examine the evidence that such a threshold might exist and where it might be.
study  org:nat  environment  climate-change  humanity  existence  risk  futurism  estimate  physics  thermo  prediction  temperature  nature  walls  civilization  flexibility  rigidity  embodied  multi  manifolds  plots  equilibrium  phase-transition  oscillation  comparison  complex-systems  earth 
august 2018 by nhaliday
National Defense Strategy of the United States of America
National Defense Strategy released with clear priority: Stay ahead of Russia and China: https://www.defensenews.com/breaking-news/2018/01/19/national-defense-strategy-released-with-clear-priority-stay-ahead-of-russia-and-china/

https://twitter.com/AngloRemnant/status/985341571410341893
https://archive.is/RhBdG
https://archive.is/wRzRN
A saner allocation of US 'defense' funds would be something like 10% nuclear trident, 10% border patrol, & spend the rest innoculating against cyber & biological attacks.
and since the latter 2 are hopeless, just refund 80% of the defense budget.
--
Monopoly on force at sea is arguably worthwhile.
--
Given the value of the US market to any would-be adversary, id be willing to roll the dice & let it ride.
--
subs are part of the triad, surface ships are sitting ducks this day and age
--
But nobody does sink them, precisely because of the monopoly on force. It's a path-dependent equilibirum where (for now) no other actor can reap the benefits of destabilizing the monopoly, and we're probably drastically underestimating the ramifications if/when it goes away.
--
can lethal autonomous weapon systems get some
pdf  white-paper  org:gov  usa  government  trump  policy  nascent-state  foreign-policy  realpolitik  authoritarianism  china  asia  russia  antidemos  military  defense  world  values  enlightenment-renaissance-restoration-reformation  democracy  chart  politics  current-events  sulla  nuclear  arms  deterrence  strategy  technology  sky  oceans  korea  communism  innovation  india  europe  EU  MENA  multi  org:foreign  war  great-powers  thucydides  competition  twitter  social  discussion  backup  gnon  🐸  markets  trade  nationalism-globalism  equilibrium  game-theory  tactics  top-n  hi-order-bits  security  hacker  biotech  terrorism  disease  parasites-microbiome  migration  walls  internet 
january 2018 by nhaliday
A genetic map of the world – Gene Expression
The above map is from a new preprint on the patterns of genetic variation as a function of geography for humans, Genetic landscapes reveal how human genetic diversity aligns with geography. The authors assemble an incredibly large dataset to generate these figures. The orange zones are “troughs” of gene flow. Basically barriers to gene flow.  It is no great surprise that so many of the barriers correlate with rivers, mountains, and deserts. But the aim of this sort of work seems to be to make precise and quantitative intuitions which are normally expressed verbally.
gnxp  scitariat  commentary  bio  preprint  study  summary  genetics  genomics  pic  data  maps  visualization  stock-flow  gene-flow  walls  world  africa  europe  MENA  india  asia  china  japan  korea  anglo  developing-world  russia  sapiens  gavisti  population-genetics  geography  🌞  mediterranean  britain  oceans  race  tribalism 
december 2017 by nhaliday
Fortifications and Democracy in the Ancient Greek World by Josiah Ober, Barry Weingast :: SSRN
- Joshiah Ober, Barry Weingast

In the modern world, access-limiting fortification walls are not typically regarded as promoting democracy. But in Greek antiquity, increased investment in fortifications was correlated with the prevalence and stability of democracy. This paper sketches the background conditions of the Greek city-state ecology, analyzes a passage in Aristotle’s Politics, and assesses the choices of Hellenistic kings, Greek citizens, and urban elites, as modeled in a simple game. The paper explains how city walls promoted democracy and helps to explain several other puzzles: why Hellenistic kings taxed Greek cities at lower than expected rates; why elites in Greek cities supported democracy; and why elites were not more heavily taxed by democratic majorities. The relationship between walls, democracy, and taxes promoted continued economic growth into the late classical and Hellenistic period (4th-2nd centuries BCE), and ultimately contributed to the survival of Greek culture into the Roman era, and thus modernity. We conclude with a consideration of whether the walls-democracy relationship holds in modernity.

'Rulers Ruled by Women': An Economic Analysis of the Rise and Fall of Women's Rights in Ancient Sparta by Robert K. Fleck, F. Andrew Hanssen: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=788106
Throughout most of history, women as a class have possessed relatively few formal rights. The women of ancient Sparta were a striking exception. Although they could not vote, Spartan women reportedly owned 40 percent of Sparta's agricultural land and enjoyed other rights that were equally extraordinary. We offer a simple economic explanation for the Spartan anomaly. The defining moment for Sparta was its conquest of a neighboring land and people, which fundamentally changed the marginal products of Spartan men's and Spartan women's labor. To exploit the potential gains from a reallocation of labor - specifically, to provide the appropriate incentives and the proper human capital formation - men granted women property (and other) rights. Consistent with our explanation for the rise of women's rights, when Sparta lost the conquered land several centuries later, the rights for women disappeared. Two conclusions emerge that may help explain why women's rights have been so rare for most of history. First, in contrast to the rest of the world, the optimal (from the men's perspective) division of labor among Spartans involved women in work that was not easily monitored by men. Second, the rights held by Spartan women may have been part of an unstable equilibrium, which contained the seeds of its own destruction.
study  broad-econ  economics  polisci  political-econ  institutions  government  north-weingast-like  democracy  walls  correlation  polis  history  mediterranean  iron-age  the-classics  microfoundations  modernity  comparison  architecture  military  public-goodish  elite  civic  taxes  redistribution  canon  literature  big-peeps  conquest-empire  rent-seeking  defense  models  GT-101  incentives  urban  urban-rural  speculation  interdisciplinary  cliometrics  multi  civil-liberty  gender  gender-diff  equilibrium  cycles  branches  labor  interests  property-rights  unintended-consequences  explanation  explanans  analysis  econ-productivity  context  arrows  micro  natural-experiment 
november 2017 by nhaliday
Where Has Progress Got Us? - NYTimes.com
THE TRUE AND ONLY HEAVEN Progress and Its Critics. By Christopher Lasch. 591 pp. New York: W.W. Norton & Company. $25.

reviewed by William Julius Wilson

Lower-middle-class culture, Mr. Lasch argues, reflects an emphasis on the family, the church and the neighborhood. A community's continuity is valued more highly than individual advancement, social solidarity is favored over social mobility and the maintenance of existing ways takes precedent over mainstream ideals of success. Parents want their children to succeed in life, but they also want them to be considerate of their elders, to willingly bear their responsibilities and to show courage under adversity. "More concerned with honor than with worldly ambition, they have less interest in the future than do upper-middle-class parents, who try to equip their children with the qualities required for competitive advancement."

Mr. Lasch acknowledges the provincialism and narrowness of lower-middle-class culture, and he does not deny that "it has produced racism, nativism, anti-intellectualism, and all the other evils so often cited by liberal critics." But, he maintains, in their zeal to condemn such objectionable traits, liberals have failed to see the valuable features of petty-bourgeois culture -- what he calls moral realism, skepticism about progress, respect for limits and understanding that everything has its price.
news  org:rec  christopher-lasch  books  review  summary  big-peeps  wonkish  right-wing  aristos  politics  ideology  madisonian  nascent-state  society  malaise  zeitgeist  coming-apart  dignity  class  class-warfare  capitalism  walls  duty  honor  tradition  social-capital  religion  christianity  theos  managerial-state  unintended-consequences  polisci  volo-avolo  no-go  degrees-of-freedom  prejudice  realness  cynicism-idealism  reason  values  community  mobility  morality  virtu  usa  gibbon  civil-liberty  westminster  race  discrimination  education  higher-ed  zero-positive-sum  cost-benefit  interests  noblesse-oblige  hypocrisy 
october 2017 by nhaliday
Over the long term civilization matters – Gene Expression
This sort of dynamic has been used to argue that Samuel P. Huntington’s The Clash of Civilizations and the Remaking of World Order is not a useful framework. But on the contrary what Turchin and colleagues have shown is that over the long run civilizational fissures tend to result in the most vicious and dehumanizing wars.
gnxp  scitariat  discussion  turchin  broad-econ  cultural-dynamics  religion  theos  anthropology  civilization  tribalism  long-short-run  huntington  things  big-picture  history  early-modern  europe  gallic  the-great-west-whale  christianity  islam  mediterranean  cohesion  coalitions  protestant-catholic  war  meta:war  great-powers  occident  orient  walls  the-bones  hari-seldon 
june 2017 by nhaliday
The Clash of Civilizations and the Remaking of World Order - Samuel P. Huntington - Google Books
prediction from 1996:
A civilizational paradigm thus sets forth a relatively simple but not too simple map for understanding what is going on in the world as the twentieth century ends. No paradigm, however, is good forever. The Cold War model of world politics was useful and relevant for forty years but became obsolete in the late l980s, and at some point the civilizational paradigm will suffer a similar fate. For the contemporary period, however, it provides a useful guide for distinguishing what is more important from what is less important. Slightly less than half of the forty-eight ethnic conflicts in the world in early 1993, for example, were between groups from different civilizations. The civilizational perspective would lead the UN. Secretary-General and the U.S. Secretary of State to concentrate their peacemaking efforts on these conflicts which have much greater potential than others to escalate into broader wars.

Paradigms also generate predictions, and a crucial test of a paradigms validity and usefulness is the extent to which the predictions derived from it turn out to be more accurate than those from alternative paradigms. A statist paradigm, for instance, leads John Mearsheimer to predict that “the situation between Ukraine and Russia is ripe for the outbreak of security competition between them. Great powers that share a long and unprotected common border, like that between Russia and Ukraine, often lapse into competition driven by security fears. Russia and Ukraine might overcome this dynamic and learn to live together in harmony, but it would be unusual if they do.”"‘ A civilizational approach, on the other hand, emphasizes the close cultural, personal, and historical links between Russia and Ukraine and the intermingling of Russians and Ukrainians in both countries, and focuses instead on the civilizational fault line that divides Orthodox eastern Ukraine from Uniate western Ukraine, a central historical fact of long standing which, in keeping with the “realist” concept of states as unified and self-identified entities, Mearsheimer totally ignores. While a statist approach highlights the possibility of a Russian-Ukrainian war, a civilizational approach minimizes that and instead highlights the possibility of Ukraine splitting in half, a separation which cultural factors would lead one to predict might be more violent than that of Czechoslovakia but far less bloody than that of Yugoslavia. These different predictions, in turn, give rise to different policy priorities. Mearsheimer's statist prediction of possible war and Russian conquest of Ukraine leads him to support Ukraine's having nuclear weapons. A civilizational approach would encourage cooperation between Russia and Ukraine, urge Ukraine to give up its nuclear weapons, promote substantial economic assistance and other measures to help maintain Ukrainian unity and independence, and sponsor contingency planning for the possible breakup of Ukraine.
gbooks  quotes  big-peeps  huntington  foreign-policy  realpolitik  ideology  thinking  tetlock  history  mostly-modern  prediction  eastern-europe  russia  war  civilization  being-right  realness  aristos  great-powers  statesmen  track-record  walls 
april 2017 by nhaliday
Was the Wealth of Nations Determined in 1000 BC?
Our most interesting, strong, and robust results are for the association of 1500 AD technology with per capita income and technology adoption today. We also find robust and significant technological persistence from 1000 BC to 0 AD, and from 0 AD to 1500 AD.

migration-adjusted ancestry predicts current economic growth and technology adoption today

https://economix.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/08/02/was-todays-poverty-determined-in-1000-b-c/

Putterman-Weil:
Post-1500 Population Flows and the Long Run Determinants of Economic Growth and Inequality: http://www.nber.org/papers/w14448
Persistence of Fortune: Accounting for Population Movements, There Was No Post-Columbian Reversal: http://sci-hub.tw/10.1257/mac.6.3.1
Extended State History Index: https://sites.google.com/site/econolaols/extended-state-history-index
Description:
The data set extends and replaces previous versions of the State Antiquity Index (originally created by Bockstette, Chanda and Putterman, 2002). The updated data extends the previous Statehist data into the years before 1 CE, to the first states in Mesopotamia (in the fourth millennium BCE), along with filling in the years 1951 – 2000 CE that were left out of past versions of the Statehist data.
The construction of the index follows the principles developed by Bockstette et al (2002). First, the duration of state existence is established for each territory defined by modern-day country borders. Second, this duration is divided into 50-year periods. For each half-century from the first period (state emergence) onwards, the authors assign scores to reflect three dimensions of state presence, based on the following questions: 1) Is there a government above the tribal level? 2) Is this government foreign or locally based? 3) How much of the territory of the modern country was ruled by this government?

Creators: Oana Borcan, Ola Olsson & Louis Putterman

State History and Economic Development: Evidence from Six Millennia∗: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1cifUljlPpoURL7VPOQRGF5q9H6zgVFXe/view
The presence of a state is one of the most reliable historical predictors of social and economic development. In this article, we complete the coding of an extant indicator of state presence from 3500 BCE forward for almost all but the smallest countries of the world today. We outline a theoretical framework where accumulated state experience increases aggregate productivity in individual countries but where newer or relatively inexperienced states can reach a higher productivity maximum by learning from the experience of older states. The predicted pattern of comparative development is tested in an empirical analysis where we introduce our extended state history variable. Our key finding is that the current level of economic development across countries has a hump-shaped relationship with accumulated state history.

nonlinearity confirmed in this other paper:
State and Development: A Historical Study of Europe from 0 AD to 2000 AD: https://ideas.repec.org/p/hic/wpaper/219.html
After addressing conceptual and practical concerns on its construction, we present a measure of the mean duration of state rule that is aimed at resolving some of these issues. We then present our findings on the relationship between our measure and local development, drawing from observations in Europe spanning from 0 AD to 2000 AD. We find that during this period, the mean duration of state rule and the local income level have a nonlinear, inverse U-shaped relationship, controlling for a set of historical, geographic and socioeconomic factors. Regions that have historically experienced short or long duration of state rule on average lag behind in their local wealth today, while those that have experienced medium-duration state rule on average fare better.

Figure 1 shows all borders that existed during this period
Figure 4 shows quadratic fit

I wonder if U-shape is due to Ibn Kaldun-Turchin style effect on asabiya? They suggest sunk costs and ossified institutions.
study  economics  growth-econ  history  antiquity  medieval  cliometrics  macro  path-dependence  hive-mind  garett-jones  spearhead  biodet  🎩  🌞  human-capital  divergence  multi  roots  demographics  the-great-west-whale  europe  china  asia  technology  easterly  definite-planning  big-picture  big-peeps  early-modern  stylized-facts  s:*  broad-econ  track-record  migration  assimilation  chart  frontier  prepping  discovery  biophysical-econ  cultural-dynamics  wealth-of-nations  ideas  occident  microfoundations  news  org:rec  popsci  age-of-discovery  expansionism  conquest-empire  pdf  piracy  world  developing-world  deep-materialism  dataset  time  data  database  time-series  leviathan  political-econ  polisci  iron-age  mostly-modern  government  institutions  correlation  curvature  econ-metrics  wealth  geography  walls  within-group  nonlinearity  convexity-curvature  models  marginal  wire-guided  branches  cohesion  organizing  hari-seldon 
march 2017 by nhaliday
Shtetl-Optimized » Blog Archive » Why I Am Not An Integrated Information Theorist (or, The Unconscious Expander)
In my opinion, how to construct a theory that tells us which physical systems are conscious and which aren’t—giving answers that agree with “common sense” whenever the latter renders a verdict—is one of the deepest, most fascinating problems in all of science. Since I don’t know a standard name for the problem, I hereby call it the Pretty-Hard Problem of Consciousness. Unlike with the Hard Hard Problem, I don’t know of any philosophical reason why the Pretty-Hard Problem should be inherently unsolvable; but on the other hand, humans seem nowhere close to solving it (if we had solved it, then we could reduce the abortion, animal rights, and strong AI debates to “gentlemen, let us calculate!”).

Now, I regard IIT as a serious, honorable attempt to grapple with the Pretty-Hard Problem of Consciousness: something concrete enough to move the discussion forward. But I also regard IIT as a failed attempt on the problem. And I wish people would recognize its failure, learn from it, and move on.

In my view, IIT fails to solve the Pretty-Hard Problem because it unavoidably predicts vast amounts of consciousness in physical systems that no sane person would regard as particularly “conscious” at all: indeed, systems that do nothing but apply a low-density parity-check code, or other simple transformations of their input data. Moreover, IIT predicts not merely that these systems are “slightly” conscious (which would be fine), but that they can be unboundedly more conscious than humans are.

To justify that claim, I first need to define Φ. Strikingly, despite the large literature about Φ, I had a hard time finding a clear mathematical definition of it—one that not only listed formulas but fully defined the structures that the formulas were talking about. Complicating matters further, there are several competing definitions of Φ in the literature, including ΦDM (discrete memoryless), ΦE (empirical), and ΦAR (autoregressive), which apply in different contexts (e.g., some take time evolution into account and others don’t). Nevertheless, I think I can define Φ in a way that will make sense to theoretical computer scientists. And crucially, the broad point I want to make about Φ won’t depend much on the details of its formalization anyway.

We consider a discrete system in a state x=(x1,…,xn)∈Sn, where S is a finite alphabet (the simplest case is S={0,1}). We imagine that the system evolves via an “updating function” f:Sn→Sn. Then the question that interests us is whether the xi‘s can be partitioned into two sets A and B, of roughly comparable size, such that the updates to the variables in A don’t depend very much on the variables in B and vice versa. If such a partition exists, then we say that the computation of f does not involve “global integration of information,” which on Tononi’s theory is a defining aspect of consciousness.
aaronson  tcstariat  philosophy  dennett  interdisciplinary  critique  nibble  org:bleg  within-without  the-self  neuro  psychology  cog-psych  metrics  nitty-gritty  composition-decomposition  complex-systems  cybernetics  bits  information-theory  entropy-like  forms-instances  empirical  walls  arrows  math.DS  structure  causation  quantitative-qualitative  number  extrema  optimization  abstraction  explanation  summary  degrees-of-freedom  whole-partial-many  network-structure  systematic-ad-hoc  tcs  complexity  hardness  no-go  computation  measurement  intricacy  examples  counterexample  coding-theory  linear-algebra  fields  graphs  graph-theory  expanders  math  math.CO  properties  local-global  intuition  error  definition 
january 2017 by nhaliday
Bad Math Props Up Trump’s Border Wall
http://news.nationalgeographic.com/2016/03/160304-us-mexico-border-fence-wall-photos-immigration/
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-08-01/israel-s-magal-eyes-trump-wall-boasting-gaza-tested-smart-fence
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trump-immigration-idUSKBN1591HP
this is great lol (convos w/ Turnbull+Mexican president):
‘This deal will make me look terrible’: Full transcripts of Trump’s calls with Mexico and Australia: https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2017/politics/australia-mexico-transcripts/
TRUMP
Why haven’t you let them out? Why have you not let them into your society?

TURNBULL
Okay, I will explain why. It is not because they are bad people. It is because in order to stop people smugglers, we had to deprive them of the product. So we said if you try to come to Australia by boat, even if we think you are the best person in the world, even if you are a Noble [sic] Prize winning genius, we will not let you in. Because the problem with the people —

TRUMP
That is a good idea. We should do that too. You are worse than I am.

TURNBULL
This is our experience.
http://www.motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2017/09/wall-what-wall/
news  org:biz  trump  data  analysis  money  policy  2016-election  migration  org:mag  org:sci  wonkish  the-south  latin-america  israel  MENA  infrastructure  current-events  walls  multi  pic  list  business  org:lite  politics  usa  org:rec  interview  anglo  statesmen  quotes  migrant-crisis  europe  germanic  left-wing  investigative-journo  counter-revolution  track-record  geography 
december 2016 by nhaliday
The Membrane – spottedtoad
All of which is to say that the Internet, which shares many qualities in common with an assemblage of living things except for those clear boundaries and defenses, might well not trend toward increased usability or easier exchange of information over the longer term, even if that is what we have experienced heretofore. The history of evolution is every bit as much a history of parasitism and counterparasitism as it is any kind of story of upward movement toward greater complexity or order. There is no reason to think that we (and still less national or political entities) will necessarily experience technology as a means of enablement and Cool Stuff We Can Do rather than a perpetual set of defenses against scammers of our money and attention. There’s the respect that makes Fake News the news that matters forever more.

THE MADCOM FUTURE: http://www.atlanticcouncil.org/images/publications/The_MADCOM_Future_RW_0926.pdf
HOW ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE WILL ENHANCE COMPUTATIONAL PROPAGANDA, REPROGRAM HUMAN CULTURE, AND THREATEN DEMOCRACY... AND WHAT CAN BE DONE ABOUT IT.

https://twitter.com/toad_spotted/status/984065056437653505
https://archive.is/fZLyb
ai robocalls/phonetrees/Indian Ocean call centers~biologicalization of corporations thru automation&global com tech

fly-by-night scams double mitotically,covered by outer membrane slime&peptidoglycan

trillion $ corps w/nonspecific skin/neutrophils/specific B/T cells against YOU
ratty  unaffiliated  contrarianism  walls  internet  hacker  risk  futurism  speculation  wonkish  chart  red-queen  parasites-microbiome  analogy  prediction  unintended-consequences  security  open-closed  multi  pdf  white-paper  propaganda  ai  offense-defense  ecology  cybernetics  pessimism  twitter  social  discussion  backup  bio  automation  cooperate-defect  coordination  attention  crypto  money  corporation  accelerationism  threat-modeling  alignment 
december 2016 by nhaliday
Personhood: A Game for Two or More Players | Melting Asphalt
The point is, when we act as persons, wearing our person masks out in public, we're acting within the framework of an implicit social contract — one that's designed to help us get along smoothly with our fellow persons.

Of course, this type of "contract" isn't a binary, all-or-nothing proposition. Instead, like all social phenomena, it admits of degrees. The way it works is that the more you behave like a person, the more you'll be treated like one. So it isn't a question of "whether" someone is a person, but rather "how much personhood" she has, based on how well she carries herself.
simler  essay  thinking  anthropology  society  contracts  walls  postrat  legibility  social-norms 
october 2016 by nhaliday
Do Immigrants Import Their Economic Destiny? - Evonomics
How do immigrants change the countries they move to? Immigration has become a big political issue in the U.S., the UK, Germany, and beyond, and experts and pundits alike have tried answering this question. At least among economists, almost all the debate has focused on the short run, and most of that has focused on lower-skilled immigrants. The overall answer is fairly clear: low-skilled immigrants don’t have a major effect on the rest of the economy one way or the other. That means that in the short run, the most important effect of low-skilled immigration is that it helps low-skilled migrants themselves.

But what happens in the very long run? As immigrants shape the culture of their new homelands, will they import more than just new ethnic cuisines? Will they also import attitudes and policies that wound the golden goose of first-world prosperity? Ultimately, will migrants make the countries they move to a lot like the countries they came from?

This is one of the great policy questions in our new age of mass migration, and it’s related to one of the great questions of social science: Why do some countries have relatively liberal, pro-market institutions while others are plagued by corruption, statism, and incompetence? Three lines of research point the way to a substantial answer:

- The Deep Roots literature on how ancestry predicts modern economic development,
- The Attitude Migration literature, which shows that migrants tend to bring a lot of their worldview with them when they move from one country to another,
- The New Voters-New Policies literature, which shows that expanding the franchise to new voters really does change the nature of government.

Together, these three data-driven literatures suggest that if you want to predict how a nation’s economic rules and norms are likely to change over the next few decades, you’ll want to keep an eye on where that country’s recent immigrants hail from.
economics  policy  growth-econ  data  links  summary  survey  contrarianism  econotariat  🌞  🎩  stylized-facts  hive-mind  c:***  path-dependence  spearhead  walls  2016  cracker-econ  longform  cliometrics  empirical  migration  big-picture  garett-jones  biodet  wonkish  trust  democracy  s:*  essay  rhetoric  easterly  news  org:sci  org:mag  china  asia  sinosphere  developing-world  sociology  big-peeps  current-events  nationalism-globalism  broad-econ  gender  intervention  assimilation  chart  article  zeitgeist  wealth-of-nations  the-bones  prudence  antidemos  microfoundations  branches  hari-seldon 
september 2016 by nhaliday
So how did the European powers REALLY figure out how to draw the borders for their colonial territories? : AskHistorians
One of the great myths of colonialism in Africa is that borders were totally arbitrary or universally intended to create conflict. This is simply not true as a blanket statement, beyond the fact of European ignorance of long standing ties across new boundaries, or the fact that a quasi national boundary is always artificial. The entire basis of European territorial and protectorate claims in Africa existed based on treaties supposedly obtained from local rulers, and they (especially the British) were weirdly scrupulous about trying to match the claim with the boundary. (See Hetslet's The Map of Africa by Treaty, 3 vols. )
The problem that was most common involved borders between colonial powers, and that's where horse trading and impossibly straight borders did occur and some states were split. But there is a mythology around the process. Colonialists were indeed really really bad at sussing out African conceptions of territoriality and arguably the simple act of imposing their border system was an act of self serving malfeasance, but they did try to build the colonial fiction on a foundation of claimed legitimacy to succession of "native title" (per Weaver, The Great Land Rush).
reddit  discussion  history  government  social  walls  q-n-a  europe  britain  age-of-discovery  expansionism  conquest-empire 
august 2016 by nhaliday
A Theory About Religion | Slate Star Codex
Related to Monday’s post but spun off for length reasons: my crazy theory about where religion comes from.
religion  culture  philosophy  reflection  yvain  essay  haidt  values  insight  len:long  speculation  ssc  ratty  subculture  walls  frontier  schelling 
april 2016 by nhaliday

bundles : abstractcoordpatternssoftvague

related tags

2016-election  aaronson  abstraction  academia  accelerationism  aesthetics  africa  age-generation  age-of-discovery  agriculture  ai  alesina  alien-character  alignment  allodium  analogy  analysis  analytical-holistic  anglo  anglosphere  anthropology  antidemos  antiquity  aphorism  arbitrage  archaics  architecture  aristos  arms  arrows  article  asia  assimilation  attaq  attention  audio  authoritarianism  automation  backup  barons  being-right  big-peeps  big-picture  bio  biodet  biophysical-econ  biotech  bits  blowhards  books  branches  britain  broad-econ  buddhism  business  c:***  canada  canon  capitalism  carcinisation  causation  chapman  chart  china  christianity  christopher-lasch  civic  civil-liberty  civilization  class  class-warfare  climate-change  cliometrics  coalitions  cocktail  coding-theory  cog-psych  cohesion  cold-war  collaboration  coming-apart  commentary  communication  communism  community  comparison  competition  complex-systems  complexity  composition-decomposition  computation  conquest-empire  context  contracts  contrarianism  convexity-curvature  cooperate-defect  coordination  corporation  correlation  cost-benefit  counter-revolution  counterexample  courage  cracker-econ  crime  criminology  critique  crypto  cultural-dynamics  culture  culture-war  current-events  curvature  cybernetics  cycles  cynicism-idealism  data  database  dataset  debt  decentralized  deep-materialism  defense  definite-planning  definition  degrees-of-freedom  democracy  demographics  dennett  deterrence  developing-world  dignity  discovery  discrimination  discussion  disease  divergence  diversity  drama  drugs  duty  early-modern  earth  easterly  eastern-europe  ecology  econ-metrics  econ-productivity  econometrics  economics  econotariat  education  egalitarianism-hierarchy  eh  elite  email  embedded-cognition  embodied  empirical  energy-resources  enlightenment-renaissance-restoration-reformation  entertainment  entropy-like  environment  equilibrium  error  essay  estimate  ethics  ethnography  EU  europe  evopsych  examples  existence  exit-voice  expanders  expansionism  explanans  explanation  extra-introversion  extrema  fertility  fields  flexibility  fluid  food  foreign-lang  foreign-policy  forms-instances  frontier  futurism  gallic  game-theory  garett-jones  gavisti  gbooks  gender  gender-diff  gene-drift  gene-flow  genetics  genomics  geography  geopolitics  germanic  gibbon  gnon  gnxp  government  graph-theory  graphs  great-powers  group-level  group-selection  growth-econ  GT-101  hacker  haidt  hanson  hardness  hari-seldon  healthcare  heavy-industry  hi-order-bits  hidden-motives  higher-ed  history  hive-mind  hmm  hn  homo-hetero  honor  human-capital  humanity  huntington  hypocrisy  ideas  identity-politics  ideology  idk  incentives  india  individualism-collectivism  industrial-org  inequality  info-dynamics  infographic  information-theory  infrastructure  inhibition  innovation  insight  institutions  integrity  intel  interdisciplinary  interests  internet  intersection  intersection-connectedness  intervention  interview  intricacy  intuition  investigative-journo  iran  iraq-syria  iron-age  islam  israel  japan  knowledge  korea  kumbaya-kult  labor  language  latin-america  law  leadership  learning  left-wing  legibility  len:long  len:short  let-me-see  letters  leviathan  linear-algebra  links  list  literature  lived-experience  local-global  long-short-run  longform  macro  madisonian  malaise  management  managerial-state  manifolds  maps  marginal  markets  martial  matching  math  math.CO  math.DS  meaningness  measurement  media  medicine  medieval  mediterranean  memetics  MENA  meta:rhetoric  meta:science  meta:war  metrics  micro  microfoundations  migrant-crisis  migration  military  mindful  minimalism  mobility  models  modernity  moloch  monetary-fiscal  money  morality  mostly-modern  multi  n-factor  nascent-state  nationalism-globalism  natural-experiment  nature  network-structure  neuro  new-religion  news  nibble  nitty-gritty  nl-and-so-can-you  no-go  noahpinion  noblesse-oblige  nonlinearity  nordic  north-weingast-like  nuclear  number  occident  oceans  offense-defense  old-anglo  open-closed  opioids  optimate  optimism  optimization  org:anglo  org:biz  org:bleg  org:data  org:edu  org:euro  org:foreign  org:gov  org:junk  org:lite  org:mag  org:med  org:nat  org:ngo  org:popup  org:rec  org:sci  organizing  orient  oscillation  outcome-risk  paganism  parasites-microbiome  path-dependence  patience  pdf  personality  pessimism  phase-transition  philosophy  physics  pic  piracy  plots  policy  polis  polisci  political-econ  politics  poll  pop-structure  popsci  population  population-genetics  populism  postrat  pre-ww2  prediction  prejudice  prepping  preprint  priors-posteriors  profile  propaganda  properties  property-rights  protestant-catholic  prudence  psychology  public-goodish  putnam-like  q-n-a  qra  quantitative-qualitative  quotes  race  randy-ayndy  ratty  realness  realpolitik  reason  red-queen  reddit  redistribution  reflection  regularizer  regulation  religion  rent-seeking  review  rhetoric  right-wing  rigidity  risk  ritual  roots  rot  russia  s:*  sapiens  schelling  science  scitariat  security  self-interest  shift  signaling  simler  sinosphere  sky  social  social-capital  social-norms  social-science  social-structure  society  sociology  socs-and-mops  speaking  spearhead  speculation  sports  ssc  stagnation  statesmen  stereotypes  stock-flow  stories  strategy  structure  study  stylized-facts  subculture  sulla  summary  survey  sv  symmetry  systematic-ad-hoc  tactics  taxes  tcs  tcstariat  tech  technocracy  technology  techtariat  temperature  terrorism  tetlock  texas  the-bones  the-classics  the-great-west-whale  the-self  the-south  the-world-is-just-atoms  theory-of-mind  theos  thermo  things  thinking  threat-modeling  thucydides  time  time-preference  time-series  time-use  top-n  track-record  trade  tradition  trends  tribalism  trivia  trump  trust  turchin  tv  twitter  unaffiliated  unintended-consequences  universalism-particularism  urban  urban-rural  us-them  usa  values  vampire-squid  vgr  virtu  visualization  volo-avolo  vulgar  walls  war  water  wealth  wealth-of-nations  welfare-state  westminster  white-paper  whole-partial-many  wire-guided  within-group  within-without  wonkish  working-stiff  world  yvain  zeitgeist  zero-positive-sum  🌞  🎩  🐸  🔬  🦀 

Copy this bookmark:



description:


tags: