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Ask HN: What's a promising area to work on? | Hacker News
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7 hours ago by nhaliday
Ask HN: Favorite note-taking software? | Hacker News
Ask HN: What is your ideal note-taking software and/or hardware?: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=13221158

my wishlist as of 2019:
- web + desktop macOS + mobile iOS (at least viewing on the last but ideally also editing)
- sync across all those
- open-source data format that's easy to manipulate for scripting purposes
- flexible organization: mostly tree hierarchical (subsuming linear/unorganized) but with the option for directed (acyclic) graph (possibly a second layer of structure/linking)
- can store plain text, LaTeX, diagrams, and raster/vector images (video prob not necessary except as links to elsewhere)
- full-text search
- somehow digest/import data from Pinboard, Workflowy, Papers 3/Bookends, and Skim, ideally absorbing most of their functionality
- so, eg, track notes/annotations side-by-side w/ original PDF/DjVu/ePub documents (to replace Papers3/Bookends/Skim), and maybe web pages too (to replace Pinboard)
- OCR of handwritten notes (how to handle equations/diagrams?)
- various forms of NLP analysis of everything (topic models, clustering, etc)
- maybe version control (less important than export)

candidates?:
- Evernote prob ruled out do to heavy use of proprietary data formats (unless I can find some way to export with tolerably clean output)
- Workflowy/Dynalist are good but only cover a subset of functionality I want
- org-mode doesn't interact w/ mobile well (and I haven't evaluated it in detail otherwise)
- TiddlyWiki/Zim are in the running, but not sure about mobile
- idk about vimwiki but I'm not that wedded to vim and it seems less widely used than org-mode/TiddlyWiki/Zim so prob pass on that
- Quiver/Joplin/Inkdrop look similar and cover a lot of bases, TODO: evaluate more
- Trilium looks especially promising, tho read-only mobile and for macOS desktop look at this: https://github.com/zadam/trilium/issues/511
- RocketBook is interesting scanning/OCR solution but prob not sufficient due to proprietary data format
- TODO: many more candidates, eg, TreeSheets, Gingko, OneNote (macOS?...), Notion (proprietary data format...), Zotero, Nodebook (https://nodebook.io/landing), Polar (https://getpolarized.io), Roam (looks very promising)

Ask HN: What do you use for you personal note taking activity?: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=15736102

Ask HN: What are your note-taking techniques?: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=9976751

Ask HN: How do you take notes (useful note-taking strategies)?: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=13064215

Ask HN: How to get better at taking notes?: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=21419478

Ask HN: How did you build up your personal knowledge base?: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=21332957
nice comment from math guy on structure and difference between math and CS: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=21338628
useful comment collating related discussions: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=21333383
highlights:
Designing a Personal Knowledge base: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=8270759
Ask HN: How to organize personal knowledge?: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=17892731
Do you use a personal 'knowledge base'?: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=21108527
Ask HN: How do you share/organize knowledge at work and life?: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=21310030

other stuff:
https://www.getdnote.com/blog/how-i-built-personal-knowledge-base-for-myself/
Tiago Forte: https://www.buildingasecondbrain.com

hn search: https://hn.algolia.com/?query=notetaking&type=story

Slant comparison commentary: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7011281

good comparison of options here in comments here (and Trilium itself looks good): https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=18840990

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Comparison_of_note-taking_software

wikis:
https://www.slant.co/versus/5116/8768/~tiddlywiki_vs_zim
https://www.wikimatrix.org/compare/tiddlywiki+zim
http://tiddlymap.org/
https://www.zim-wiki.org/manual/Plugins/BackLinks_Pane.html
https://zim-wiki.org/manual/Plugins/Link_Map.html

apps:
Roam: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=21440289

Inkdrop: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=20103589

Joplin: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=15815040

Frame: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=18760079

https://www.reddit.com/r/TheMotte/comments/cb18sy/anyone_use_a_personal_wiki_software_to_catalog/
Notion: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=18904648

Anki:
https://www.reddit.com/r/Anki/comments/as8i4t/use_anki_for_technical_books/
https://www.freecodecamp.org/news/how-anki-saved-my-engineering-career-293a90f70a73/
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4 weeks ago by nhaliday
2019 Growth Theory Conference - May 11-12 | Economics Department at Brown University
Guillaume Blanc (Brown) and Romain Wacziarg (UCLA and NBER) "Change and Persistence in the Age of Modernization:
Saint-Germain-d’Anxure, 1730-1895∗"

Figure 4.1.1.1 – Fertility
Figure 4.2.1.1 – Mortality
Figure 5.1.0.1 – Literacy

https://twitter.com/GarettJones/status/1127999888359346177
https://archive.is/1EnZg
Short pre-modern lives weren't overwhelmingly about infant mortality:

From this weekend's excellent Deep Roots conference at @Brown_Economics, new evidence from a small French town, an ancestral home of coauthor Romain Wacziarg:
--
European Carpe Diem poems made a lot more sense when 20-year-olds were halfway done with life:
...
--
...
N.B. that's not a correction at all, it's telling the same story as the above figure:

Conditioned on surviving childhood, usually living to less than 50 years total in 1750s France and in medieval times.
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6 weeks ago by nhaliday
The Scholar's Stage: Book Notes—Strategy: A History
https://twitter.com/Scholars_Stage/status/1151681120787816448
https://archive.is/Bp5eu
Freedman's book is something of a shadow history of Western intellectual thought between 1850 and 2010. Marx, Tolstoy, Foucault, game theorists, economists, business law--it is all in there.

Thus the thoughts prompted by this book have surprisingly little to do with war.
Instead I am left with questions about the long-term trajectory of Western thought. Specifically:

*Has America really dominated Western intellectual life in the post 45 world as much as English speakers seem to think it has?
*Has the professionalization/credential-iization of Western intellectual life helped or harmed our ability to understand society?
*Will we ever recover from the 1960s?
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july 2019 by nhaliday
Integrated vs type based shrinking - Hypothesis
The big difference is whether shrinking is integrated into generation.

In Haskell’s QuickCheck, shrinking is defined based on types: Any value of a given type shrinks the same way, regardless of how it is generated. In Hypothesis, test.check, etc. instead shrinking is part of the generation, and the generator controls how the values it produces shrinks (this works differently in Hypothesis and test.check, and probably differently again in EQC, but the user visible result is largely the same)

This is not a trivial distinction. Integrating shrinking into generation has two large benefits:
- Shrinking composes nicely, and you can shrink anything you can generate regardless of whether there is a defined shrinker for the type produced.
- You can _guarantee that shrinking satisfies the same invariants as generation_.
The first is mostly important from a convenience point of view: Although there are some things it let you do that you can’t do in the type based approach, they’re mostly of secondary importance. It largely just saves you from the effort of having to write your own shrinkers.

But the second is really important, because the lack of it makes your test failures potentially extremely confusing.

...

[example: even_numbers = integers().map(lambda x: x * 2)]

...

In this example the problem was relatively obvious and so easy to work around, but as your invariants get more implicit and subtle it becomes really problematic: In Hypothesis it’s easy and convenient to generate quite complex data, and trying to recreate the invariants that are automatically satisfied with that in your tests and/or your custom shrinkers would quickly become a nightmare.

I don’t think it’s an accident that the main systems to get this right are in dynamic languages. It’s certainly not essential - the original proposal that lead to the implementation for test.check was for Haskell, and Jack is an alternative property based system for Haskell that does this - but you feel the pain much more quickly in dynamic languages because the typical workaround for this problem in Haskell is to define a newtype, which lets you turn off the default shrinking for your types and possibly define your own.

But that’s a workaround for a problem that shouldn’t be there in the first place, and using it will still result in your having to encode the invariants into your your shrinkers, which is more work and more brittle than just having it work automatically.

So although (as far as I know) none of the currently popular property based testing systems for statically typed languages implement this behaviour correctly, they absolutely can and they absolutely should. It will improve users’ lives significantly.

https://hypothesis.works/articles/compositional-shrinking/
In my last article about shrinking, I discussed the problems with basing shrinking on the type of the values to be shrunk.

In writing it though I forgot that there was a halfway house which is also somewhat bad (but significantly less so) that you see in a couple of implementations.

This is when the shrinking is not type based, but still follows the classic shrinking API that takes a value and returns a lazy list of shrinks of that value. Examples of libraries that do this are theft and QuickTheories.

This works reasonably well and solves the major problems with type directed shrinking, but it’s still somewhat fragile and importantly does not compose nearly as well as the approaches that Hypothesis or test.check take.

Ideally, as well as not being based on the types of the values being generated, shrinking should not be based on the actual values generated at all.

This may seem counter-intuitive, but it actually works pretty well.

...

We took a strategy and composed it with a function mapping over the values that that strategy produced to get a new strategy.

Suppose the Hypothesis strategy implementation looked something like the following:
...
i.e. we can generate a value and we can shrink a value that we’ve previously generated. By default we don’t know how to generate values (subclasses have to implement that) and we can’t shrink anything, which subclasses are able to fix if they want or leave as is if they’re fine with that.

(This is in fact how a very early implementation of it looked)

This is essentially the approach taken by theft or QuickTheories, and the problem with it is that under this implementation the ‘map’ function we used above is impossible to define in a way that preserves shrinking: In order to shrink a generated value, you need some way to invert the function you’re composing with (which is in general impossible even if your language somehow exposed the facilities to do it, which it almost certainly doesn’t) so you could take the generated value, map it back to the value that produced it, shrink that and then compose with the mapping function.

...

The key idea for fixing this is as follows: In order to shrink outputs it almost always suffices to shrink inputs. Although in theory you can get functions where simpler input leads to more complicated output, in practice this seems to be rare enough that it’s OK to just shrug and accept more complicated test output in those cases.

Given that, the _way to shrink the output of a mapped strategy is to just shrink the value generated from the first strategy and feed it to the mapping function_.

Which means that you need an API that can support that sort of shrinking.

https://hypothesis.works/articles/types-and-properties/
This happens a lot: Frequently there are properties that only hold in some restricted domain, and so you want more specific tests for that domain to complement your other tests for the larger range of data.

When this happens you need tools to generate something more specific, and those requirements don’t map naturally to types.

[ed.: Some examples of how this idea can be useful:
Have a type but want to test different distributions on it for different purposes. Eg, comparing worst-case and average-case guarantees for benchmarking time/memory complexity. Comparing a slow and fast implementation on small input sizes, then running some sanity checks for the fast implementation on large input sizes beyond what the slow implementation can handle.]

...

In Haskell, traditionally we would fix this with a newtype declaration which wraps the type. We could find a newtype NonEmptyList and a newtype FiniteFloat and then say that we actually wanted a NonEmptyList[FiniteFloat] there.

...

But why should we bother? Especially if we’re only using these in one test, we’re not actually interested in these types at all, and it just adds a whole bunch of syntactic noise when you could just pass the data generators directly. Defining new types for the data you want to generate is purely a workaround for a limitation of the API.

If you were working in a dependently typed language where you could already naturally express this in the type system it might be OK (I don’t have any direct experience of working in type systems that strong), but I’m sceptical of being able to make it work well - you’re unlikely to be able to automatically derive data generators in the general case, because the needs of data generation “go in the opposite direction” from types (a type is effectively a predicate which consumes a value, where a data generator is a function that produces a value, so in order to produce a generator for a type automatically you need to basically invert the predicate). I suspect most approaches here will leave you with a bunch of sharp edges, but I would be interested to see experiments in this direction.

https://www.reddit.com/r/haskell/comments/646k3d/ann_hedgehog_property_testing/dg1485c/
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july 2019 by nhaliday
Computer latency: 1977-2017
If we look at overall results, the fastest machines are ancient. Newer machines are all over the place. Fancy gaming rigs with unusually high refresh-rate displays are almost competitive with machines from the late 70s and early 80s, but “normal” modern computers can’t compete with thirty to forty year old machines.

...

If we exclude the game boy color, which is a different class of device than the rest, all of the quickest devices are Apple phones or tablets. The next quickest device is the blackberry q10. Although we don’t have enough data to really tell why the blackberry q10 is unusually quick for a non-Apple device, one plausible guess is that it’s helped by having actual buttons, which are easier to implement with low latency than a touchscreen. The other two devices with actual buttons are the gameboy color and the kindle 4.

After that iphones and non-kindle button devices, we have a variety of Android devices of various ages. At the bottom, we have the ancient palm pilot 1000 followed by the kindles. The palm is hamstrung by a touchscreen and display created in an era with much slower touchscreen technology and the kindles use e-ink displays, which are much slower than the displays used on modern phones, so it’s not surprising to see those devices at the bottom.

...

Almost every computer and mobile device that people buy today is slower than common models of computers from the 70s and 80s. Low-latency gaming desktops and the ipad pro can get into the same range as quick machines from thirty to forty years ago, but most off-the-shelf devices aren’t even close.

If we had to pick one root cause of latency bloat, we might say that it’s because of “complexity”. Of course, we all know that complexity is bad. If you’ve been to a non-academic non-enterprise tech conference in the past decade, there’s a good chance that there was at least one talk on how complexity is the root of all evil and we should aspire to reduce complexity.

Unfortunately, it's a lot harder to remove complexity than to give a talk saying that we should remove complexity. A lot of the complexity buys us something, either directly or indirectly. When we looked at the input of a fancy modern keyboard vs. the apple 2 keyboard, we saw that using a relatively powerful and expensive general purpose processor to handle keyboard inputs can be slower than dedicated logic for the keyboard, which would both be simpler and cheaper. However, using the processor gives people the ability to easily customize the keyboard, and also pushes the problem of “programming” the keyboard from hardware into software, which reduces the cost of making the keyboard. The more expensive chip increases the manufacturing cost, but considering how much of the cost of these small-batch artisanal keyboards is the design cost, it seems like a net win to trade manufacturing cost for ease of programming.

...

If you want a reference to compare the kindle against, a moderately quick page turn in a physical book appears to be about 200 ms.

https://twitter.com/gravislizard/status/927593460642615296
almost everything on computers is perceptually slower than it was in 1983
https://archive.is/G3D5K
https://archive.is/vhDTL
https://archive.is/a3321
https://archive.is/imG7S
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july 2019 by nhaliday
CPC Elite Perception of the US since the Early 1990s: Wang Huning and Zheng Bijian as Test Cases
What makes this paper distinct from previous research is that it juxtaposes two of the most influential yet under-studied America watchers within the top echelon of the CPC, Wang Huning and Zheng Bijian. To be sure, the two have indelibly shaped CPC attitudes, yet surprisingly enough, although Zheng has been written about extensively in the English language, Wang has hitherto largely remained outside academics’ purview. This paper also aims, in passing, to explore linkages between Wang and Zheng ideas and those of other well-known America watchers like Liu Mingfu and Yan Xuetong. It is hoped that this comparison will offer clues as to the extent to which the current advisory shaping CPC thinking on the US differs from the previous generation, and as to whether CPC thinking is un-American or anti-American in essence. The conclusions will tie the study together by speculating based on Wang and Zheng’s views about the degree to which New Confucianism, as opposed to Neo-Liberalism, might shape Chinese society in the future.

https://twitter.com/Scholars_Stage/status/1145940572013649921
https://archive.is/Fu4sG
I want someone to translate Wang Huning’s book “America Against America”
For the record, in Chinese that's《美国反对美国》。Wang traveled across USA in the '80s, visiting big cities and small towns. Book lambasted democracy, contrasting the 'ideal' of American rhetoric with the 'reality' of American life. Wang is now one of Xi's closest advisors.
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july 2019 by nhaliday
Why is Google Translate so bad for Latin? A longish answer. : latin
hmm:
> All it does its correlate sequences of up to five consecutive words in texts that have been manually translated into two or more languages.
That sort of system ought to be perfect for a dead language, though. Dump all the Cicero, Livy, Lucretius, Vergil, and Oxford Latin Course into a database and we're good.

We're not exactly inundated with brand new Latin to translate.
--
> Dump all the Cicero, Livy, Lucretius, Vergil, and Oxford Latin Course into a database and we're good.
What makes you think that the Google folks haven't done so and used that to create the language models they use?
> That sort of system ought to be perfect for a dead language, though.
Perhaps. But it will be bad at translating novel English sentences to Latin.
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june 2019 by nhaliday
Which of Haskell and OCaml is more practical? For example, in which aspect will each play a key role? - Quora
- Tikhon Jelvis,

Haskell.

This is a question I'm particularly well-placed to answer because I've spent quite a bit of time with both Haskell and OCaml, seeing both in the real world (including working at Jane Street for a bit). I've also seen the languages in academic settings and know many people at startups using both languages. This gives me a good perspective on both languages, with a fairly similar amount of experience in the two (admittedly biased towards Haskell).

And so, based on my own experience rather than the languages' reputations, I can confidently say it's Haskell.

Parallelism and Concurrency

...

Libraries

...

Typeclasses vs Modules

...

In some sense, OCaml modules are better behaved and founded on a sounder theory than Haskell typeclasses, which have some serious drawbacks. However, the fact that typeclasses can be reliably inferred whereas modules have to be explicitly used all the time more than makes up for this. Moreover, extensions to the typeclass system enable much of the power provided by OCaml modules.

...

Of course, OCaml has some advantages of its own as well. It has a performance profile that's much easier to predict. The module system is awesome and often missed in Haskell. Polymorphic variants can be very useful for neatly representing certain situations, and don't have an obvious Haskell analog.

While both languages have a reasonable C FFI, OCaml's seems a bit simpler. It's hard for me to say this with any certainty because I've only used the OCaml FFI myself, but it was quite easy to use—a hard bar for Haskell's to clear. One really nice use of modules in OCaml is to pass around values directly from C as abstract types, which can help avoid extra marshalling/unmarshalling; that seemed very nice in OCaml.

However, overall, I still think Haskell is the more practical choice. Apart from the reasoning above, I simply have my own observations: my Haskell code tends to be clearer, simpler and shorter than my OCaml code. I'm also more productive in Haskell. Part of this is certainly a matter of having more Haskell experience, but the delta is limited especially as I'm working at my third OCaml company. (Of course, the first two were just internships.)

Both Haskell and OCaml are uniquivocally superb options—miles ahead of any other languages I know. While I do prefer Haskell, I'd choose either one in a pinch.

--
I've looked at F# a bit, but it feels like it makes too many tradeoffs to be on .NET. You lose the module system, which is probably OCaml's best feature, in return for an unfortunate, nominally typed OOP layer.

I'm also not invested in .NET at all: if anything, I'd prefer to avoid it in favor of simplicity. I exclusively use Linux and, from the outside, Mono doesn't look as good as it could be. I'm also far more likely to interoperate with a C library than a .NET library.

If I had some additional reason to use .NET, I'd definitely go for F#, but right now I don't.

https://www.reddit.com/r/haskell/comments/3huexy/what_are_haskellers_critiques_of_f_and_ocaml/
https://www.reddit.com/r/haskell/comments/3huexy/what_are_haskellers_critiques_of_f_and_ocaml/cub5mmb/
Thinking about it now, it boils down to a single word: expressiveness. When I'm writing OCaml, I feel more constrained than when I'm writing Haskell. And that's important: unlike so many others, what first attracted me to Haskell was expressiveness, not safety. It's easier for me to write code that looks how I want it to look in Haskell. The upper bound on code quality is higher.

...

Perhaps it all boils down to OCaml and its community feeling more "worse is better" than Haskell, something I highly disfavor.

...

Laziness or, more strictly, non-strictness is big. A controversial start, perhaps, but I stand by it. Unlike some, I do not see non-strictness as a design mistake but as a leap in abstraction. Perhaps a leap before its time, but a leap nonetheless. Haskell lets me program without constantly keeping the code's order in my head. Sure, it's not perfect and sometimes performance issues jar the illusion, but they are the exception not the norm. Coming from imperative languages where order is omnipresent (I can't even imagine not thinking about execution order as I write an imperative program!) it's incredibly liberating, even accounting for the weird issues and jinks I'd never see in a strict language.

This is what I imagine life felt like with the first garbage collectors: they may have been slow and awkward, the abstraction might have leaked here and there, but, for all that, it was an incredible advance. You didn't have to constantly think about memory allocation any more. It took a lot of effort to get where we are now and garbage collectors still aren't perfect and don't fit everywhere, but it's hard to imagine the world without them. Non-strictness feels like it has the same potential, without anywhere near the work garbage collection saw put into it.

...

The other big thing that stands out are typeclasses. OCaml might catch up on this front with implicit modules or it might not (Scala implicits are, by many reports, awkward at best—ask Edward Kmett about it, not me) but, as it stands, not having them is a major shortcoming. Not having inference is a bigger deal than it seems: it makes all sorts of idioms we take for granted in Haskell awkward in OCaml which means that people simply don't use them. Haskell's typeclasses, for all their shortcomings (some of which I find rather annoying), are incredibly expressive.

In Haskell, it's trivial to create your own numeric type and operators work as expected. In OCaml, while you can write code that's polymorphic over numeric types, people simply don't. Why not? Because you'd have to explicitly convert your literals and because you'd have to explicitly open a module with your operators—good luck using multiple numeric types in a single block of code! This means that everyone uses the default types: (63/31-bit) ints and doubles. If that doesn't scream "worse is better", I don't know what does.

...

There's more. Haskell's effect management, brought up elsewhere in this thread, is a big boon. It makes changing things more comfortable and makes informal reasoning much easier. Haskell is the only language where I consistently leave code I visit better than I found it. Even if I hadn't worked on the project in years. My Haskell code has better longevity than my OCaml code, much less other languages.

http://blog.ezyang.com/2011/02/ocaml-gotchas/
One observation about purity and randomness: I think one of the things people frequently find annoying in Haskell is the fact that randomness involves mutation of state, and thus be wrapped in a monad. This makes building probabilistic data structures a little clunkier, since you can no longer expose pure interfaces. OCaml is not pure, and as such you can query the random number generator whenever you want.

However, I think Haskell may get the last laugh in certain circumstances. In particular, if you are using a random number generator in order to generate random test cases for your code, you need to be able to reproduce a particular set of random tests. Usually, this is done by providing a seed which you can then feed back to the testing script, for deterministic behavior. But because OCaml's random number generator manipulates global state, it's very easy to accidentally break determinism by asking for a random number for something unrelated. You can work around it by manually bracketing the global state, but explicitly handling the randomness state means providing determinism is much more natural.
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june 2019 by nhaliday
Comparing within- and between-family polygenic score prediction | bioRxiv
https://twitter.com/StuartJRitchie/status/1116074740475736066
https://archive.is/bQnjM
See this thread for our new study on polygenic scores within fraternal twin pairs! Main point: take extra care with polygenic scores for traits like IQ & education, because they're confounded by (what seem to be) socioeconomic status effects. Not so for traits like height & BMI.
The idea is that the parenting is caused by the parental genotype, so it gets (mis)classified as a genetic effect on the children. It's really another way of looking at "genetic nurture" - see the papers from last year.
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april 2019 by nhaliday
Timothy Heath - China's New Governing Party Paradigm - YouTube
https://twitter.com/GarettJones/status/1079807448741863425
https://archive.is/NnO9U
What percentage of CCP elites sincerely believe in the official ideology?

https://twitter.com/BennettJonah/status/1153757516867633152
https://archive.is/PI3QS
One of the most useful things to aid understanding is reading the other side in their own words, rather than reading yet more vague analyses about "what the Chinese are up to."

Which is why you need to read this Xi Jinping speech:
https://palladiummag.com/2019/05/31/xi-jinping-in-translation-chinas-guiding-ideology/
--
I like this speech because it is a clear expression of Marxism as an "organizing philosophy of the state" - nothing about equality, barely even anything about "workers"
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february 2019 by nhaliday
T. Greer on Twitter: "Genesis 1st half of Exodus Basic passages of the Deuteronomic Covenant Select scenes from Numbers-Judges Samuel I-II Job Ecclesiastes Proverbs Select Psalms Select passages of Isiah, Jeremiah, and Ezekiel Jonah 4 Gospels+Acts Romans
https://archive.is/YtwVb
I would pair letters from Paul with Flannery O'Connor's "A Good Man is Hard to Find."

I designed a hero's journey course that included Gilgamesh, Odyssey, and Gawain and the Green Knight. Before reading Gawain you'd read the Sermon on the Mount + few parts of gospels.
The idea with that last one being that Gawain was an attempt to make a hero who (unlike Odysseus) accorded with Christian ethics. As one of its discussion points, the class can debate over how well it actually did that.
...
So I would preface Lord of the Flies with a stylized account of Hobbes and Rosseau, and we would read a great deal of Genesis alongside LOTF.

Same approach was taken to Greece and Rome. Classical myths would be paired with poems from the 1600s-1900s that alluded to them.
...
Genesis
1st half of Exodus
Basic passages of the Deuteronomic Covenant
Select scenes from Numbers-Judges
Samuel I-II
Job
Ecclesiastes
Proverbs
Select Psalms
Select passages of Isiah, Jeremiah, and Ezekiel
Jonah
4 Gospels+Acts
Romans
1 Corinthians
Hebrews
Revelation
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february 2019 by nhaliday
John Dee - Wikipedia
John Dee (13 July 1527 – 1608 or 1609) was an English mathematician, astronomer, astrologer, occult philosopher,[5] and advisor to Queen Elizabeth I. He devoted much of his life to the study of alchemy, divination, and Hermetic philosophy. He was also an advocate of England's imperial expansion into a "British Empire", a term he is generally credited with coining.[6]

Dee straddled the worlds of modern science and magic just as the former was emerging. One of the most learned men of his age, he had been invited to lecture on the geometry of Euclid at the University of Paris while still in his early twenties. Dee was an ardent promoter of mathematics and a respected astronomer, as well as a leading expert in navigation, having trained many of those who would conduct England's voyages of discovery.

Simultaneously with these efforts, Dee immersed himself in the worlds of magic, astrology and Hermetic philosophy. He devoted much time and effort in the last thirty years or so of his life to attempting to commune with angels in order to learn the universal language of creation and bring about the pre-apocalyptic unity of mankind. However, Robert Hooke suggested in the chapter Of Dr. Dee's Book of Spirits, that John Dee made use of Trithemian steganography, to conceal his communication with Elizabeth I.[7] A student of the Renaissance Neo-Platonism of Marsilio Ficino, Dee did not draw distinctions between his mathematical research and his investigations into Hermetic magic, angel summoning and divination. Instead he considered all of his activities to constitute different facets of the same quest: the search for a transcendent understanding of the divine forms which underlie the visible world, which Dee called "pure verities".

In his lifetime, Dee amassed one of the largest libraries in England. His high status as a scholar also allowed him to play a role in Elizabethan politics. He served as an occasional advisor and tutor to Elizabeth I and nurtured relationships with her ministers Francis Walsingham and William Cecil. Dee also tutored and enjoyed patronage relationships with Sir Philip Sidney, his uncle Robert Dudley, 1st Earl of Leicester, and Edward Dyer. He also enjoyed patronage from Sir Christopher Hatton.

https://twitter.com/Logo_Daedalus/status/985203144044040192
https://archive.is/h7ibQ
mind meld

Leave Me Alone! Misanthropic Writings from the Anti-Social Edge
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april 2018 by nhaliday
Harnessing Evolution - with Bret Weinstein | Virtual Futures Salon - YouTube
- ways to get out of Malthusian conditions: expansion to new frontiers, new technology, redistribution/theft
- some discussion of existential risk
- wants to change humanity's "purpose" to one that would be safe in the long run; important thing is it has to be ESS (maybe he wants a singleton?)
- not too impressed by transhumanism (wouldn't identify with a brain emulation)
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april 2018 by nhaliday
Theories of humor - Wikipedia
There are many theories of humor which attempt to explain what humor is, what social functions it serves, and what would be considered humorous. Among the prevailing types of theories that attempt to account for the existence of humor, there are psychological theories, the vast majority of which consider humor to be very healthy behavior; there are spiritual theories, which consider humor to be an inexplicable mystery, very much like a mystical experience.[1] Although various classical theories of humor and laughter may be found, in contemporary academic literature, three theories of humor appear repeatedly: relief theory, superiority theory, and incongruity theory.[2] Among current humor researchers, there is no consensus about which of these three theories of humor is most viable.[2] Proponents of each one originally claimed their theory to be capable of explaining all cases of humor.[2][3] However, they now acknowledge that although each theory generally covers its own area of focus, many instances of humor can be explained by more than one theory.[2][3][4][5] Incongruity and superiority theories, for instance, seem to describe complementary mechanisms which together create humor.[6]

...

Relief theory
Relief theory maintains that laughter is a homeostatic mechanism by which psychological tension is reduced.[2][3][7] Humor may thus for example serve to facilitate relief of the tension caused by one's fears.[8] Laughter and mirth, according to relief theory, result from this release of nervous energy.[2] Humor, according to relief theory, is used mainly to overcome sociocultural inhibitions and reveal suppressed desires. It is believed that this is the reason we laugh whilst being tickled, due to a buildup of tension as the tickler "strikes".[2][9] According to Herbert Spencer, laughter is an "economical phenomenon" whose function is to release "psychic energy" that had been wrongly mobilized by incorrect or false expectations. The latter point of view was supported also by Sigmund Freud.

Superiority theory
The superiority theory of humor traces back to Plato and Aristotle, and Thomas Hobbes' Leviathan. The general idea is that a person laughs about misfortunes of others (so called schadenfreude), because these misfortunes assert the person's superiority on the background of shortcomings of others.[10] Socrates was reported by Plato as saying that the ridiculous was characterized by a display of self-ignorance.[11] For Aristotle, we laugh at inferior or ugly individuals, because we feel a joy at feeling superior to them.[12]

Incongruous juxtaposition theory
The incongruity theory states that humor is perceived at the moment of realization of incongruity between a concept involved in a certain situation and the real objects thought to be in some relation to the concept.[10]

Since the main point of the theory is not the incongruity per se, but its realization and resolution (i.e., putting the objects in question into the real relation), it is often called the incongruity-resolution theory.[10]

...

Detection of mistaken reasoning
In 2011, three researchers, Hurley, Dennett and Adams, published a book that reviews previous theories of humor and many specific jokes. They propose the theory that humor evolved because it strengthens the ability of the brain to find mistakes in active belief structures, that is, to detect mistaken reasoning.[46] This is somewhat consistent with the sexual selection theory, because, as stated above, humor would be a reliable indicator of an important survival trait: the ability to detect mistaken reasoning. However, the three researchers argue that humor is fundamentally important because it is the very mechanism that allows the human brain to excel at practical problem solving. Thus, according to them, humor did have survival value even for early humans, because it enhanced the neural circuitry needed to survive.

Misattribution theory
Misattribution is one theory of humor that describes an audience's inability to identify exactly why they find a joke to be funny. The formal theory is attributed to Zillmann & Bryant (1980) in their article, "Misattribution Theory of Tendentious Humor", published in Journal of Experimental Social Psychology. They derived the critical concepts of the theory from Sigmund Freud's Wit and Its Relation to the Unconscious (note: from a Freudian perspective, wit is separate from humor), originally published in 1905.

Benign violation theory
The benign violation theory (BVT) is developed by researchers A. Peter McGraw and Caleb Warren.[47] The BVT integrates seemingly disparate theories of humor to predict that humor occurs when three conditions are satisfied: 1) something threatens one's sense of how the world "ought to be", 2) the threatening situation seems benign, and 3) a person sees both interpretations at the same time.

From an evolutionary perspective, humorous violations likely originated as apparent physical threats, like those present in play fighting and tickling. As humans evolved, the situations that elicit humor likely expanded from physical threats to other violations, including violations of personal dignity (e.g., slapstick, teasing), linguistic norms (e.g., puns, malapropisms), social norms (e.g., strange behaviors, risqué jokes), and even moral norms (e.g., disrespectful behaviors). The BVT suggests that anything that threatens one's sense of how the world "ought to be" will be humorous, so long as the threatening situation also seems benign.

...

Sense of humor, sense of seriousness
One must have a sense of humor and a sense of seriousness to distinguish what is supposed to be taken literally or not. An even more keen sense is needed when humor is used to make a serious point.[48][49] Psychologists have studied how humor is intended to be taken as having seriousness, as when court jesters used humor to convey serious information. Conversely, when humor is not intended to be taken seriously, bad taste in humor may cross a line after which it is taken seriously, though not intended.[50]

Philosophy of humor bleg: http://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2017/03/philosophy-humor-bleg.html

Inside Jokes: https://mitpress.mit.edu/books/inside-jokes
humor as reward for discovering inconsistency in inferential chain

https://twitter.com/search?q=comedy%20OR%20humor%20OR%20humour%20from%3Asarahdoingthing&src=typd
https://twitter.com/sarahdoingthing/status/500000435529195520

https://twitter.com/sarahdoingthing/status/568346955811663872
https://twitter.com/sarahdoingthing/status/600792582453465088
https://twitter.com/sarahdoingthing/status/603215362033778688
https://twitter.com/sarahdoingthing/status/605051508472713216
https://twitter.com/sarahdoingthing/status/606197597699604481
https://twitter.com/sarahdoingthing/status/753514548787683328

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Humour
People of all ages and cultures respond to humour. Most people are able to experience humour—be amused, smile or laugh at something funny—and thus are considered to have a sense of humour. The hypothetical person lacking a sense of humour would likely find the behaviour inducing it to be inexplicable, strange, or even irrational.

...

Ancient Greece
Western humour theory begins with Plato, who attributed to Socrates (as a semi-historical dialogue character) in the Philebus (p. 49b) the view that the essence of the ridiculous is an ignorance in the weak, who are thus unable to retaliate when ridiculed. Later, in Greek philosophy, Aristotle, in the Poetics (1449a, pp. 34–35), suggested that an ugliness that does not disgust is fundamental to humour.

...

China
Confucianist Neo-Confucian orthodoxy, with its emphasis on ritual and propriety, has traditionally looked down upon humour as subversive or unseemly. The Confucian "Analects" itself, however, depicts the Master as fond of humorous self-deprecation, once comparing his wanderings to the existence of a homeless dog.[10] Early Daoist philosophical texts such as "Zhuangzi" pointedly make fun of Confucian seriousness and make Confucius himself a slow-witted figure of fun.[11] Joke books containing a mix of wordplay, puns, situational humor, and play with taboo subjects like sex and scatology, remained popular over the centuries. Local performing arts, storytelling, vernacular fiction, and poetry offer a wide variety of humorous styles and sensibilities.

...

Physical attractiveness
90% of men and 81% of women, all college students, report having a sense of humour is a crucial characteristic looked for in a romantic partner.[21] Humour and honesty were ranked as the two most important attributes in a significant other.[22] It has since been recorded that humour becomes more evident and significantly more important as the level of commitment in a romantic relationship increases.[23] Recent research suggests expressions of humour in relation to physical attractiveness are two major factors in the desire for future interaction.[19] Women regard physical attractiveness less highly compared to men when it came to dating, a serious relationship, and sexual intercourse.[19] However, women rate humorous men more desirable than nonhumorous individuals for a serious relationship or marriage, but only when these men were physically attractive.[19]

Furthermore, humorous people are perceived by others to be more cheerful but less intellectual than nonhumorous people. Self-deprecating humour has been found to increase the desirability of physically attractive others for committed relationships.[19] The results of a study conducted by McMaster University suggest humour can positively affect one’s desirability for a specific relationship partner, but this effect is only most likely to occur when men use humour and are evaluated by women.[24] No evidence was found to suggest men prefer women with a sense of humour as partners, nor women preferring other women with a sense of humour as potential partners.[24] When women were given the forced-choice design in the study, they chose funny men as potential … [more]
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april 2018 by nhaliday
Who We Are | West Hunter
I’m going to review David Reich’s new book, Who We Are and How We Got Here. Extensively: in a sense I’ve already been doing this for a long time. Probably there will be a podcast. The GoFundMe link is here. You can also send money via Paypal (Use the donate button), or bitcoins to 1Jv4cu1wETM5Xs9unjKbDbCrRF2mrjWXr5. In-kind donations, such as orichalcum or mithril, are always appreciated.

This is the book about the application of ancient DNA to prehistory and history.

height difference between northern and southern europeans: https://westhunt.wordpress.com/2018/03/29/who-we-are-1/
mixing, genocide of males, etc.: https://westhunt.wordpress.com/2018/03/29/who-we-are-2-purity-of-essence/
rapid change in polygenic traits (appearance by Kevin Mitchell and funny jab at Brad Delong ("regmonkey")): https://westhunt.wordpress.com/2018/03/30/rapid-change-in-polygenic-traits/
schiz, bipolar, and IQ: https://westhunt.wordpress.com/2018/03/30/rapid-change-in-polygenic-traits/#comment-105605
Dan Graur being dumb: https://westhunt.wordpress.com/2018/04/02/the-usual-suspects/
prediction of neanderthal mixture and why: https://westhunt.wordpress.com/2018/04/03/who-we-are-3-neanderthals/
New Guineans tried to use Denisovan admixture to avoid UN sanctions (by "not being human"): https://westhunt.wordpress.com/2018/04/04/who-we-are-4-denisovans/
also some commentary on decline of Out-of-Africa, including:
"Homo Naledi, a small-brained homonin identified from recently discovered fossils in South Africa, appears to have hung around way later that you’d expect (up to 200,000 years ago, maybe later) than would be the case if modern humans had occupied that area back then. To be blunt, we would have eaten them."

Live Not By Lies: https://westhunt.wordpress.com/2018/04/08/live-not-by-lies/
Next he slams people that suspect that upcoming genetic genetic analysis will, in most cases, confirm traditional stereotypes about race – the way the world actually looks.

The people Reich dumps on are saying perfectly reasonable things. He criticizes Henry Harpending for saying that he’d never seen an African with a hobby. Of course, Henry had actually spent time in Africa, and that’s what he’d seen. The implication is that people in Malthusian farming societies – which Africa was not – were selected to want to work, even where there was no immediate necessity to do so. Thus hobbies, something like a gerbil running in an exercise wheel.

He criticized Nicholas Wade, for saying that different races have different dispositions. Wade’s book wasn’t very good, but of course personality varies by race: Darwin certainly thought so. You can see differences at birth. Cover a baby’s nose with a cloth: Chinese and Navajo babies quietly breathe through their mouth, European and African babies fuss and fight.

Then he attacks Watson, for asking when Reich was going to look at Jewish genetics – the kind that has led to greater-than-average intelligence. Watson was undoubtedly trying to get a rise out of Reich, but it’s a perfectly reasonable question. Ashkenazi Jews are smarter than the average bear and everybody knows it. Selection is the only possible explanation, and the conditions in the Middle ages – white-collar job specialization and a high degree of endogamy, were just what the doctor ordered.

Watson’s a prick, but he’s a great prick, and what he said was correct. Henry was a prince among men, and Nick Wade is a decent guy as well. Reich is totally out of line here: he’s being a dick.

Now Reich may be trying to burnish his anti-racist credentials, which surely need some renewal after having pointing out that race as colloquially used is pretty reasonable, there’s no reason pops can’t be different, people that said otherwise ( like Lewontin, Gould, Montagu, etc. ) were lying, Aryans conquered Europe and India, while we’re tied to the train tracks with scary genetic results coming straight at us. I don’t care: he’s being a weasel, slandering the dead and abusing the obnoxious old genius who laid the foundations of his field. Reich will also get old someday: perhaps he too will someday lose track of all the nonsense he’s supposed to say, or just stop caring. Maybe he already has… I’m pretty sure that Reich does not like lying – which is why he wrote this section of the book (not at all logically necessary for his exposition of the ancient DNA work) but the required complex juggling of lies and truth required to get past the demented gatekeepers of our society may not be his forte. It has been said that if it was discovered that someone in the business was secretly an android, David Reich would be the prime suspect. No Talleyrand he.

https://westhunt.wordpress.com/2018/04/12/who-we-are-6-the-americas/
The population that accounts for the vast majority of Native American ancestry, which we will call Amerinds, came into existence somewhere in northern Asia. It was formed from a mix of Ancient North Eurasians and a population related to the Han Chinese – about 40% ANE and 60% proto-Chinese. Is looks as if most of the paternal ancestry was from the ANE, while almost all of the maternal ancestry was from the proto-Han. [Aryan-Transpacific ?!?] This formation story – ANE boys, East-end girls – is similar to the formation story for the Indo-Europeans.

https://westhunt.wordpress.com/2018/04/18/who-we-are-7-africa/
In some ways, on some questions, learning more from genetics has left us less certain. At this point we really don’t know where anatomically humans originated. Greater genetic variety in sub-Saharan African has been traditionally considered a sign that AMH originated there, but it possible that we originated elsewhere, perhaps in North Africa or the Middle East, and gained extra genetic variation when we moved into sub-Saharan Africa and mixed with various archaic groups that already existed. One consideration is that finding recent archaic admixture in a population may well be a sign that modern humans didn’t arise in that region ( like language substrates) – which makes South Africa and West Africa look less likely. The long-continued existence of homo naledi in South Africa suggests that modern humans may not have been there for all that long – if we had co-existed with homo naledi, they probably wouldn’t lasted long. The oldest known skull that is (probably) AMh was recently found in Morocco, while modern humans remains, already known from about 100,000 years ago in Israel, have recently been found in northern Saudi Arabia.

While work by Nick Patterson suggests that modern humans were formed by a fusion between two long-isolated populations, a bit less than half a million years ago.

So: genomics had made recent history Africa pretty clear. Bantu agriculuralists expanded and replaced hunter-gatherers, farmers and herders from the Middle East settled North Africa, Egypt and northeaat Africa, while Nilotic herdsmen expanded south from the Sudan. There are traces of earlier patterns and peoples, but today, only traces. As for questions back further in time, such as the origins of modern humans – we thought we knew, and now we know we don’t. But that’s progress.

https://westhunt.wordpress.com/2018/04/18/reichs-journey/
David Reich’s professional path must have shaped his perspective on the social sciences. Look at the record. He starts his professional career examining the role of genetics in the elevated prostate cancer risk seen in African-American men. Various social-science fruitcakes oppose him even looking at the question of ancestry ( African vs European). But they were wrong: certain African-origin alleles explain the increased risk. Anthropologists (and human geneticists) were sure (based on nothing) that modern humans hadn’t interbred with Neanderthals – but of course that happened. Anthropologists and archaeologists knew that Gustaf Kossina couldn’t have been right when he said that widespread material culture corresponded to widespread ethnic groups, and that migration was the primary explanation for changes in the archaeological record – but he was right. They knew that the Indo-European languages just couldn’t have been imposed by fire and sword – but Reich’s work proved them wrong. Lots of people – the usual suspects plus Hindu nationalists – were sure that the AIT ( Aryan Invasion Theory) was wrong, but it looks pretty good today.

Some sociologists believed that caste in India was somehow imposed or significantly intensified by the British – but it turns out that most jatis have been almost perfectly endogamous for two thousand years or more…

It may be that Reich doesn’t take these guys too seriously anymore. Why should he?

varnas, jatis, aryan invastion theory: https://westhunt.wordpress.com/2018/04/22/who-we-are-8-india/

europe and EEF+WHG+ANE: https://westhunt.wordpress.com/2018/05/01/who-we-are-9-europe/

https://www.nationalreview.com/2018/03/book-review-david-reich-human-genes-reveal-history/
The massive mixture events that occurred in the recent past to give rise to Europeans and South Asians, to name just two groups, were likely “male mediated.” That’s another way of saying that men on the move took local women as brides or concubines. In the New World there are many examples of this, whether it be among African Americans, where most European ancestry seems to come through men, or in Latin America, where conquistadores famously took local women as paramours. Both of these examples are disquieting, and hint at the deep structural roots of patriarchal inequality and social subjugation that form the backdrop for the emergence of many modern peoples.
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march 2018 by nhaliday
akira on Twitter: "It is almost impressive how quickly we destroyed everything worth preserving."
Now that we have nothing left to fight for, we are utterly free to choose the path forward. There is nothing to hold us back.
Our advice to you: Save who you can. Ditch anyone who has chosen poorly. Do not get left behind. Do not look back.
Things are in fact very, very bad, and you should not be living in cities come the turn of the decade.
twitter  social  discussion  gnon  politics  current-events  rant  urban-rural  usa 
march 2018 by nhaliday
Existential Risks: Analyzing Human Extinction Scenarios
https://twitter.com/robinhanson/status/981291048965087232
https://archive.is/dUTD5
Would you endorse choosing policy to max the expected duration of civilization, at least as a good first approximation?
Can anyone suggest a different first approximation that would get more votes?

https://twitter.com/robinhanson/status/981335898502545408
https://archive.is/RpygO
How useful would it be to agree on a relatively-simple first-approximation observable-after-the-fact metric for what we want from the future universe, such as total life years experienced, or civilization duration?

We're Underestimating the Risk of Human Extinction: https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2012/03/were-underestimating-the-risk-of-human-extinction/253821/
An Oxford philosopher argues that we are not adequately accounting for technology's risks—but his solution to the problem is not for Luddites.

Anderson: You have argued that we underrate existential risks because of a particular kind of bias called observation selection effect. Can you explain a bit more about that?

Bostrom: The idea of an observation selection effect is maybe best explained by first considering the simpler concept of a selection effect. Let's say you're trying to estimate how large the largest fish in a given pond is, and you use a net to catch a hundred fish and the biggest fish you find is three inches long. You might be tempted to infer that the biggest fish in this pond is not much bigger than three inches, because you've caught a hundred of them and none of them are bigger than three inches. But if it turns out that your net could only catch fish up to a certain length, then the measuring instrument that you used would introduce a selection effect: it would only select from a subset of the domain you were trying to sample.

Now that's a kind of standard fact of statistics, and there are methods for trying to correct for it and you obviously have to take that into account when considering the fish distribution in your pond. An observation selection effect is a selection effect introduced not by limitations in our measurement instrument, but rather by the fact that all observations require the existence of an observer. This becomes important, for instance, in evolutionary biology. For instance, we know that intelligent life evolved on Earth. Naively, one might think that this piece of evidence suggests that life is likely to evolve on most Earth-like planets. But that would be to overlook an observation selection effect. For no matter how small the proportion of all Earth-like planets that evolve intelligent life, we will find ourselves on a planet that did. Our data point-that intelligent life arose on our planet-is predicted equally well by the hypothesis that intelligent life is very improbable even on Earth-like planets as by the hypothesis that intelligent life is highly probable on Earth-like planets. When it comes to human extinction and existential risk, there are certain controversial ways that observation selection effects might be relevant.
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march 2018 by nhaliday
China’s Ideological Spectrum
We find that public preferences are weakly constrained, and the configuration of preferences is multidimensional, but the latent traits of these dimensions are highly correlated. Those who prefer authoritarian rule are more likely to support nationalism, state intervention in the economy, and traditional social values; those who prefer democratic institutions and values are more likely to support market reforms but less likely to be nationalistic and less likely to support traditional social values. This latter set of preferences appears more in provinces with higher levels of development and among wealthier and better-educated respondents.

Enlightened One-Party Rule? Ideological Differences between Chinese Communist Party Members and the Mass Public: https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/1065912919850342
A popular view of nondemocratic regimes is that they draw followers mainly from those with an illiberal, authoritarian mind-set. We challenge this view by arguing that there exist a different class of autocracies that rule with a relatively enlightened base. Leveraging multiple nationally representative surveys from China over the past decade, we substantiate this claim by estimating and comparing the ideological preferences of Chinese Communist Party members and ordinary citizens. We find that party members on average hold substantially more modern and progressive views than the public on issues such as gender equality, political pluralism, and openness to international exchange. We also explore two mechanisms that may account for this party–public value gap—selection and socialization. We find that while education-based selection is the most dominant mechanism overall, socialization also plays a role, especially among older and less educated party members.

https://twitter.com/chenchenzh/status/1140929230072623104
https://archive.is/ktcOY
Does this control for wealth and education?
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Perhaps about half the best educated youth joined party.
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march 2018 by nhaliday
Effects of Education on Political Opinions: An International Study | International Journal of Public Opinion Research | Oxford Academic
Education and Political Party: The Effects of College or Social Class?: https://www.jstor.org/stable/2778029
The impact of education on political ideology: Evidence from European compulsory education reforms: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0272775716301704
correlation is with leftism, causal effect is shift to right

Greg thinks there are some effects: https://pinboard.in/u:nhaliday/b:5adca8f16265

https://twitter.com/GarettJones/status/964209775419457536
https://archive.is/oFELz
https://archive.is/f1DBF
https://archive.is/5iiqn

http://econlog.econlib.org/archives/2008/12/education_ideol.html

https://twitter.com/pseudoerasmus/status/963451867912130561
https://archive.is/sHI7g
https://archive.is/B5Gdv
https://archive.is/hFERC
https://archive.is/8IUDm
Bryan Caplan has written a very persuasive book suggesting that retention/transfer of learning is very low. how do we know it’s not the same with the “PoMo ethos”
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february 2018 by nhaliday
Adam Smith, David Hume, Liberalism, and Esotericism - Call for Papers - Elsevier
https://twitter.com/davidmanheim/status/963071765995032576
https://archive.is/njT4P
A very good economics journal--famously an outlet for rigorous, outside the box thinking--is publishing a special issue on hidden meanings in the work of two of the world's greatest thinkers.

Another sign the new Straussian age is upon us: Bayesians update accordingly!
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february 2018 by nhaliday
Information Processing: US Needs a National AI Strategy: A Sputnik Moment?
FT podcasts on US-China competition and AI: http://infoproc.blogspot.com/2018/05/ft-podcasts-on-us-china-competition-and.html

A new recommended career path for effective altruists: China specialist: https://80000hours.org/articles/china-careers/
Our rough guess is that it would be useful for there to be at least ten people in the community with good knowledge in this area within the next few years.

By “good knowledge” we mean they’ve spent at least 3 years studying these topics and/or living in China.

We chose ten because that would be enough for several people to cover each of the major areas listed (e.g. 4 within AI, 2 within biorisk, 2 within foreign relations, 1 in another area).

AI Policy and Governance Internship: https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/ai-policy-governance-internship/

https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/deciphering-chinas-ai-dream/
https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/Deciphering_Chinas_AI-Dream.pdf
Deciphering China’s AI Dream
The context, components, capabilities, and consequences of
China’s strategy to lead the world in AI

Europe’s AI delusion: https://www.politico.eu/article/opinion-europes-ai-delusion/
Brussels is failing to grasp threats and opportunities of artificial intelligence.
By BRUNO MAÇÃES

When the computer program AlphaGo beat the Chinese professional Go player Ke Jie in a three-part match, it didn’t take long for Beijing to realize the implications.

If algorithms can already surpass the abilities of a master Go player, it can’t be long before they will be similarly supreme in the activity to which the classic board game has always been compared: war.

As I’ve written before, the great conflict of our time is about who can control the next wave of technological development: the widespread application of artificial intelligence in the economic and military spheres.

...

If China’s ambitions sound plausible, that’s because the country’s achievements in deep learning are so impressive already. After Microsoft announced that its speech recognition software surpassed human-level language recognition in October 2016, Andrew Ng, then head of research at Baidu, tweeted: “We had surpassed human-level Chinese recognition in 2015; happy to see Microsoft also get there for English less than a year later.”

...

One obvious advantage China enjoys is access to almost unlimited pools of data. The machine-learning technologies boosting the current wave of AI expansion are as good as the amount of data they can use. That could be the number of people driving cars, photos labeled on the internet or voice samples for translation apps. With 700 or 800 million Chinese internet users and fewer data protection rules, China is as rich in data as the Gulf States are in oil.

How can Europe and the United States compete? They will have to be commensurately better in developing algorithms and computer power. Sadly, Europe is falling behind in these areas as well.

...

Chinese commentators have embraced the idea of a coming singularity: the moment when AI surpasses human ability. At that point a number of interesting things happen. First, future AI development will be conducted by AI itself, creating exponential feedback loops. Second, humans will become useless for waging war. At that point, the human mind will be unable to keep pace with robotized warfare. With advanced image recognition, data analytics, prediction systems, military brain science and unmanned systems, devastating wars might be waged and won in a matter of minutes.

...

The argument in the new strategy is fully defensive. It first considers how AI raises new threats and then goes on to discuss the opportunities. The EU and Chinese strategies follow opposite logics. Already on its second page, the text frets about the legal and ethical problems raised by AI and discusses the “legitimate concerns” the technology generates.

The EU’s strategy is organized around three concerns: the need to boost Europe’s AI capacity, ethical issues and social challenges. Unfortunately, even the first dimension quickly turns out to be about “European values” and the need to place “the human” at the center of AI — forgetting that the first word in AI is not “human” but “artificial.”

https://twitter.com/mr_scientism/status/983057591298351104
https://archive.is/m3Njh
US military: "LOL, China thinks it's going to be a major player in AI, but we've got all the top AI researchers. You guys will help us develop weapons, right?"

US AI researchers: "No."

US military: "But... maybe just a computer vision app."

US AI researchers: "NO."

https://www.theverge.com/2018/4/4/17196818/ai-boycot-killer-robots-kaist-university-hanwha
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/04/04/technology/google-letter-ceo-pentagon-project.html
https://twitter.com/mr_scientism/status/981685030417326080
https://archive.is/3wbHm
AI-risk was a mistake.
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february 2018 by nhaliday
National Defense Strategy of the United States of America
National Defense Strategy released with clear priority: Stay ahead of Russia and China: https://www.defensenews.com/breaking-news/2018/01/19/national-defense-strategy-released-with-clear-priority-stay-ahead-of-russia-and-china/

https://twitter.com/AngloRemnant/status/985341571410341893
https://archive.is/RhBdG
https://archive.is/wRzRN
A saner allocation of US 'defense' funds would be something like 10% nuclear trident, 10% border patrol, & spend the rest innoculating against cyber & biological attacks.
and since the latter 2 are hopeless, just refund 80% of the defense budget.
--
Monopoly on force at sea is arguably worthwhile.
--
Given the value of the US market to any would-be adversary, id be willing to roll the dice & let it ride.
--
subs are part of the triad, surface ships are sitting ducks this day and age
--
But nobody does sink them, precisely because of the monopoly on force. It's a path-dependent equilibirum where (for now) no other actor can reap the benefits of destabilizing the monopoly, and we're probably drastically underestimating the ramifications if/when it goes away.
--
can lethal autonomous weapon systems get some
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january 2018 by nhaliday
The Western Elite from a Chinese Perspective - American Affairs Journal
I don’t claim to be a modern-day Alexis de Tocqueville, nor do I have much in common with this famous observer of American life. He grew up in Paris, a city renowned for its culture and architecture. I grew up in Shijiazhuang, a city renowned for being the headquarters of the company that produced toxic infant formula. He was a child of aristocrats; I am the child of modest workers.

Nevertheless, I hope my candid observations can provide some insights into the elite institutions of the West. Certain beliefs are as ubiquitous among the people I went to school with as smog was in Shijiazhuang. The doctrines that shape the worldviews and cultural assumptions at elite Western institutions like Cambridge, Stanford, and Goldman Sachs have become almost religious. Nevertheless, I hope that the perspective of a candid Chinese atheist can be of some instruction to them.

...

So I came to the UK in 2001, when I was 16 years old. Much to my surprise, I found the UK’s exam-focused educational system very similar to the one in China. What is more, in both countries, going to the “right schools” and getting the “right job” are seen as very important by a large group of eager parents. As a result, scoring well on exams and doing well in school interviews—or even the play session for the nursery or pre-prep school—become the most important things in the world. Even at the university level, the undergraduate degree from the University of Cambridge depends on nothing else but an exam at the end of the last year.

On the other hand, although the UK’s university system is considered superior to China’s, with a population that is only one-twentieth the size of my native country, competition, while tough, is less intimidating. For example, about one in ten applicants gets into Oxbridge in the UK, and Stanford and Harvard accept about one in twenty-five applicants. But in Hebei province in China, where I am from, only one in fifteen hundred applicants gets into Peking or Qinghua University.

Still, I found it hard to believe how much easier everything became. I scored first nationwide in the GCSE (high school) math exam, and my photo was printed in a national newspaper. I was admitted into Trinity College, University of Cambridge, once the home of Sir Isaac Newton, Francis Bacon, and Prince Charles.

I studied economics at Cambridge, a field which has become more and more mathematical since the 1970s. The goal is always to use a mathematical model to find a closed-form solution to a real-world problem. Looking back, I’m not sure why my professors were so focused on these models. I have since found that the mistake of blindly relying on models is quite widespread in both trading and investing—often with disastrous results, such as the infamous collapse of the hedge fund Long-Term Capital Management. Years later, I discovered the teaching of Warren Buffett: it is better to be approximately right than precisely wrong. But our professors taught us to think of the real world as a math problem.

The culture of Cambridge followed the dogmas of the classroom: a fervent adherence to rules and models established by tradition. For example, at Cambridge, students are forbidden to walk on grass. This right is reserved for professors only. The only exception is for those who achieve first class honors in exams; they are allowed to walk on one area of grass on one day of the year.

The behavior of my British classmates demonstrated an even greater herd mentality than what is often mocked in American MBAs. For example, out of the thirteen economists in my year at Trinity, twelve would go on to join investment banks, and five of us went to work for Goldman Sachs.

...

To me, Costco represents the best of American capitalism. It is a corporation known for having its customers and employees in mind, while at the same time it has compensated its shareholders handsomely over the years. To the customers, it offers the best combination of quality and low cost. Whenever it manages to reduce costs, it passes the savings on to customers immediately. Achieving a 10 percent gross margin with prices below Amazon’s is truly incredible. After I had been there once, I found it hard to shop elsewhere.

Meanwhile, its salaries are much higher than similar retail jobs. When the recession hit in 2008, the company increased salaries to help employees cope with the difficult environment. From the name tags the staff wear, I have seen that frontline employees work there for decades, something hard to imagine elsewhere.

Stanford was for me a distant second to Costco in terms of the American capitalist experience. Overall, I enjoyed the curriculum at the GSB. Inevitably I found some classes less interesting, but the professors all seemed to be quite understanding, even when they saw me reading my kindle during class.

One class was about strategy. It focused on how corporate mottos and logos could inspire employees. Many of the students had worked for nonprofits or health care or tech companies, all of which had mottos about changing the world, saving lives, saving the planet, etc. The professor seemed to like these mottos. I told him that at Goldman our motto was “be long-term greedy.” The professor couldn’t understand this motto or why it was inspiring. I explained to him that everyone else in the market was short-term greedy and, as a result, we took all their money. Since traders like money, this was inspiring. He asked if perhaps there was another motto or logo that my other classmates might connect with. I told him about the black swan I kept on my desk as a reminder that low probability events happen with high frequency. He didn’t like that motto either and decided to call on another student, who had worked at Pfizer. Their motto was “all people deserve to live healthy lives.” The professor thought this was much better. I didn’t understand how it would motivate employees, but this was exactly why I had come to Stanford: to learn the key lessons of interpersonal communication and leadership.

On the communication and leadership front, I came to the GSB knowing I was not good and hoped to get better. My favorite class was called “Interpersonal Dynamics” or, as students referred to it, “Touchy Feely.” In “Touchy Feely,” students get very candid feedback on how their words and actions affect others in a small group that meets several hours per week for a whole quarter.

We talked about microaggressions and feelings and empathy and listening. Sometimes in class the professor would say things to me like “Puzhong, when Mary said that, I could see you were really feeling something,” or “Puzhong, I could see in your eyes that Peter’s story affected you.” And I would tell them I didn’t feel anything. I was quite confused.

One of the papers we studied mentioned that subjects are often not conscious of their own feelings when fully immersed in a situation. But body indicators such as heart rate would show whether the person is experiencing strong emotions. I thought that I generally didn’t have a lot of emotions and decided that this might be a good way for me to discover my hidden emotions that the professor kept asking about.

So I bought a heart rate monitor and checked my resting heart rate. Right around 78. And when the professor said to me in class “Puzhong, I can see that story brought up some emotions in you,” I rolled up my sleeve and checked my heart rate. It was about 77. And so I said, “nope, no emotion.” The experiment seemed to confirm my prior belief: my heart rate hardly moved, even when I was criticized, though it did jump when I became excited or laughed.

This didn’t land well on some of my classmates. They felt I was not treating these matters with the seriousness that they deserved. The professor was very angry. My takeaway was that my interpersonal skills were so bad that I could easily offend people unintentionally, so I concluded that after graduation I should do something that involved as little human interaction as possible.

Therefore, I decided I needed to return to work in financial markets rather than attempting something else. I went to the career service office and told them that my primary goal after the MBA was to make money. I told them that $500,000 sounded like a good number. They were very confused, though, as they said their goal was to help me find my passion and my calling. I told them that my calling was to make money for my family. They were trying to be helpful, but in my case, their advice didn’t turn out to be very helpful.

Eventually I was able to meet the chief financial officer of my favorite company, Costco. He told me that they don’t hire any MBAs. Everyone starts by pushing trolleys. (I have seriously thought about doing just that. But my wife is strongly against it.) Maybe, I thought, that is why the company is so successful—no MBAs!

...

Warren Buffett has said that the moment one was born in the United States or another Western country, that person has essentially won a lottery. If someone is born a U.S. citizen, he or she enjoys a huge advantage in almost every aspect of life, including expected wealth, education, health care, environment, safety, etc., when compared to someone born in developing countries. For someone foreign to “purchase” these privileges, the price tag at the moment is $1 million dollars (the rough value of the EB-5 investment visa). Even at this price level, the demand from certain countries routinely exceeds the annual allocated quota, resulting in long waiting times. In that sense, American citizens were born millionaires!

Yet one wonders how long such luck will last. This brings me back to the title of Rubin’s book, his “uncertain world.” In such a world, the vast majority things are outside our control, determined by God or luck. After we have given our best and once the final card is drawn, we should neither become too excited by what we have achieved nor too depressed by what we failed to … [more]
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january 2018 by nhaliday
Team *Decorations Until Epiphany* on Twitter: "@RoundSqrCupola maybe just C https://t.co/SFPXb3qrAE"
https://archive.is/k0fsS
Remember ‘BRICs’? Now it’s just ICs.
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maybe just C
Solow predicts that if 2 countries have the same TFP, then the poorer nation should grow faster. But poorer India grows more slowly than China.

Solow thinking leads one to suspect India has substantially lower TFP.

Recent growth is great news, but alas 5 years isn't the long run!

FWIW under Solow conditional convergence assumptions--historically robust--the fact that a country as poor as India grows only a few % faster than the world average is a sign they'll end up poorer than S Europe.

see his spreadsheet here: http://mason.gmu.edu/~gjonesb/SolowForecast.xlsx
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december 2017 by nhaliday
The Grumpy Economist: Bitcoin and Bubbles
Bitcoin is not a very good money. It is a pure fiat money (no backing), whose value comes from limited supply plus these demands. As such it has the huge price fluctuations we see. It's an electronic version of gold, and the price variation should be a warning to economists who long for a return to  gold. My bet is that stable-value cryptocurrencies, offering one dollar per currency unit and low transactions costs, will prosper in the role of money. At least until there is a big inflation or sovereign debt crisis and a stable-value cryptocurrency not linked to government debt emerges.

https://twitter.com/GarettJones/status/939242620869660672
https://archive.is/Rrbg6
The Kareken-Wallace Cryptocurrency Price Indeterminacy theorem will someday receive the attention it deserves

https://www.mercatus.org/system/files/cryptocurrency-article.pdf
Cryptocurrencies also raise in a new way questions of exchange rate indeterminacy. As Kareken and Wallace (1981) observed, fiat currencies are all alike: slips of paper not redeemable for anything. Under a regime of floating exchange rates and no capital controls, and assuming some version of interest rate parity holds, there are an infinity of exchange rates between any two fiat currencies that constitute an equilibrium in their model.

The question of exchange rate indeterminacy is both more and less striking between cryptocurrencies than between fiat currencies. It is less striking because there are considerably more differences between cryptocurrencies than there are between paper money. Paper money is all basically the same. Cryptocurrencies sometimes have different characteristics from each other. For example, the algorithm used as the basis for mining makes a difference – it determines how professionalised the mining pools become. Litecoin uses an algorithm that tends to make mining less concentrated. Another difference is the capability of the cryptocurrency’s language for programming transactions. Ethereum is a new currency that boasts a much more robust language than Bitcoin. Zerocash is another currency that offers much stronger anonymity than Bitcoin. To the extent that cryptocurrencies differ from each other more than fiat currencies do, those differences might be able to pin down exchange rates in a model like Kareken and Wallace’s.

On the other hand, exchange rate indeterminacy could be more severe among cryptocurrencies than between fiat currencies because it is easy to simply create an exact copy of an open source cryptocurrency. There are even websites on which you can create and download the software for your own cryptocurrency with a few clicks of a mouse. These currencies are exactly alike except for their names and other identifying information. Furthermore, unlike fiat currencies, they don’t benefit from government acceptance or optimal currency area considerations that can tie a currency to a given territory.

Even identical currencies, however, can differ in terms of the quality of governance. Bitcoin currently has high quality governance institutions. The core developers are competent and conservative, and the mining and user communities are serious about making the currency work. An exact Bitcoin clone is likely to have a difficult time competing with Bitcoin unless it can promise similarly high-quality governance. When a crisis hits, users of identical currencies are going to want to hold the one that is mostly likely to weather the storm. Consequently, between currencies with identical technical characteristics, we think governance creates something close to a winner-take-all market. Network externalities are very strong in payment systems, and the governance question with respect to cryptocurrencies in particular compounds them.

https://twitter.com/GarettJones/status/939259281039380480
https://archive.is/ldof8
Explaining a price rise via future increases in the asset's value isn't good economics. The invisible hand should be pushing today's price up to the point where it earns normal expected returns. +
I don't doubt the likelihood of a future cryptocurrency being widely used, but that doesn't pin down the price of any one cryptocurrency as the Kareken-Wallace result shows. There may be a big first mover advantage for Bitcoin but ease of replication makes it a fragile dominance.

https://twitter.com/netouyo_/status/939566116229218306
https://archive.is/CtE6Q
I actually can't believe governments are allowing bitcoin to exist (they must be fully on board with going digital at some point)

btc will eventually come in direct competition with national currencies, which will have to raise rates dramatically, or die

http://www.thebigquestions.com/2017/12/08/matters-of-money/
The technology of Bitcoin Cash is very similar to the technology of Bitcoin. It offers the same sorts of anonymity, security, and so forth. There are some reasons to believe that in the future, Bitcoin Cash will be a bit easier to trade than Bitcoin (though that is not true in the present), and there are some other technological differences between them, but I’d be surprised to learn that those differences are accounting for any substantial fraction of the price differential.

The total supplies of Bitcoins and of Bitcoin Cash are currently about equal (because of the way that Bitcoin Cash originated). In each case, the supply will gradually grow to 21 million and then stop.

Question 1: Given the near identical properties of these two currencies, how can one sell for ten times the price of the other? Perhaps the answer involves the word “bubble”, but I’d be more interested in answers that assume (at least for the sake of argument) that the price of Bitcoin fairly reflects its properties as a store of value. Given that assumption, is the price differential entirely driven by the fact that Bitcoin came first? Is there that much of a first-mover advantage in this kind of game?

Question 2: Given the existence of other precious metals (e.g. platinum) what accounts for the dominance of gold as a physical store of value? (I note, for example, that when people buy gold as a store of value, they don’t often hesitate out of fear that gold will be displaced by platinum in the foreseeable future.) Is this entirely driven by the fact that gold happened to come first?

Question 3: Are Questions 1 and 2 the same question? Are the dominance of Bitcoin in the digital store-of-value market and the dominance of gold in the physical store-of-value market two sides of the same coin, so to speak? Or do they require fundamentally different explanations?

https://twitter.com/GarettJones/status/944582032780382208
https://archive.is/kqTXg
Champ/Freeman in 2001 explain why the dollar-bitcoin exchange rate is inherently unstable, and why the price of cryptocurrencies is indeterminate:

https://twitter.com/GarettJones/status/945046058073071617
https://archive.is/Y0OQB
Lay down a marker:
And remember that the modern macro dogma is that monetary systems matter little for prosperity, once bare competence is achieved.
econotariat  randy-ayndy  commentary  current-events  trends  cryptocurrency  bitcoin  money  monetary-fiscal  economics  cycles  multi  twitter  social  garett-jones  pdf  white-paper  article  macro  trade  incentives  equilibrium  backup  degrees-of-freedom  uncertainty  supply-demand  markets  gnon  🐸  government  gedanken  questions  comparison  analogy  explanans  fungibility-liquidity 
december 2017 by nhaliday
Random Thought Depository — digging-holes-in-the-river: This is a video about...
“Much of the science of modern orthodontics is devoted to creating - through rubber bands, wires, and braces - the perfect “overbite.” An overbite refers to the way our top layer of incisors hang over the bottom layer, like a lid on a box. This is the ideal human occlusion. The opposite of an overbite is an “edge-to-edge” bite seen in primates such as chimpanzees, where the top incisors clash against the bottom ones, like a guillotine blade.

What the orthodontists don’t tell you is that the overbite is a very recent aspect of human anatomy and probably results from the way we use our table knives. Based on surviving skeletons, this has only been a “normal” alignment of the human jaw for 200 to 250 years in the Western world. Before that, most human beings had an edge-to-edge bite, comparable to apes. The overbite is not a product of evolution - the time frame is far too short. Rather, it seems likely to be a response to the way we cut our food during our formative years. The person who worked this out is Professor Charles Loring Brace (born 1930), a remarkable American anthropologist whose main intellectual passion was Neanderthal man. Over decades, Brace built up the world’s largest database on the evolution of hominid teeth. He possibly held more ancient human jaws in his hand than anyone else in the twentieth century.

It’s not that your teeth are too big: your jaw is too small: https://aeon.co/ideas/its-not-that-your-teeth-are-too-big-your-jaw-is-too-small
tumblr  social  trivia  cocktail  quotes  dental  embodied  history  medieval  early-modern  sapiens  archaeology  europe  comparison  china  asia  food  multi  news  org:mag  org:popup 
november 2017 by nhaliday
The Automated Public Sphere by Frank Pasquale :: SSRN
This article first describes the documented, negative effects of online propagandists’ interventions (and platforms’ neglect) in both electoral politics and the broader public sphere (Part I). It then proposes several legal and educational tactics to mitigate platforms’ power, or to encourage or require them to exercise it responsibly (Part II). The penultimate section (Part III) offers a concession to those suspicious of governmental intervention in the public sphere: some regimes are already too authoritarian or unreliable to be trusted with extensive powers of regulation over media (whether old or new media), or intermediaries. However, the inadvisability of extensive media regulation in disordered societies only makes this agenda more urgent in well-ordered societies, lest predictable pathologies of the automated public sphere degrade their processes of democratic will formation.
study  media  propaganda  info-dynamics  internet  automation  bots  social  facebook  google  tech  politics  polisci  law  rhetoric  regulation  madisonian 
november 2017 by nhaliday
King Kong and Cold Fusion: Counterfactual analysis and the History of Technology
How “contingent” is technological history? Relying on models from evolutionary epistemology, I argue for an analogy with Darwinian Biology and thus a much greater degree of contingency than is normally supposed. There are three levels of contingency in technological development. The crucial driving force behind technology is what I call S-knowledge, that is, an understanding of the exploitable regularities of nature (which includes “science” as a subset). The development of techniques depend on the existence of epistemic bases in S. The “inevitability” of technology thus depends crucially on whether we condition it on the existence of the appropriate S-knowledge. Secondly, even if this knowledge emerges, there is nothing automatic about it being transformed into a technique that is, a set of instructions that transforms knowledge into production. Third, even if the techniques are proposed, there is selection which reflects the preferences and biases of an economy and injects another level of indeterminacy and contingency into the technological history of nations.

https://twitter.com/whyvert/status/932451959079972865
https://archive.is/MBmyV
Moslem conquest of Europe, or a Mongol conquest, or a post-1492 epidemic, or a victory of the counter-reformation would have prevented the Industrial Revolution (Joel Mokyr)
pdf  study  essay  economics  growth-econ  broad-econ  microfoundations  history  medieval  early-modern  industrial-revolution  divergence  volo-avolo  random  mokyr-allen-mccloskey  wealth-of-nations  europe  the-great-west-whale  occident  path-dependence  roots  knowledge  technology  society  multi  twitter  social  commentary  backup  conquest-empire  war  islam  MENA  disease  parasites-microbiome  counterfactual  age-of-discovery  enlightenment-renaissance-restoration-reformation  usa  scitariat  gnon  degrees-of-freedom 
november 2017 by nhaliday
SEXUAL DIMORPHISM, SEXUAL SELECTION, AND ADAPTATION IN POLYGENIC CHARACTERS - Lande - 1980 - Evolution - Wiley Online Library
https://twitter.com/gcochran99/status/970758341990367232
https://archive.is/mcKvr
Lol, that's nothing, my biology teacher in high school told me sex differences couldn't evolve since all of us inherit 50% of genes from parents of both sexes. Being a raucous hispanic kid I burst out laughing, she was not pleased
--
Sex differences actually evolve more slowly because of that: something like 80 times more slowly.
...
Doesn't have that number, but in the same ballpark.

Sexual Dimorphism, Sexual Selection, And Adaptation In Polygenic Characters

Russell Lande

https://twitter.com/gcochran99/status/999189778867208193
https://archive.is/AR8FY
I believe it, because sex differences [ in cases where the trait is not sex-limited ] evolve far more slowly than other things, on the order of 100 times more slowly. Lande 1980: https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/j.1558-5646.1980.tb04817.x

The deep past has a big vote in such cases.
...
as for the extent that women were voluntarily choosing mates 20k years ago, or 100k years ago - I surely don't know.

other time mentioned: https://pinboard.in/u:nhaliday/b:3a7c5b42dd50
study  article  bio  biodet  gender  gender-diff  evolution  genetics  population-genetics  methodology  nibble  sex  🌞  todo  pdf  piracy  marginal  comparison  pro-rata  data  multi  twitter  social  discussion  backup  west-hunter  scitariat  farmers-and-foragers  sexuality  evopsych  EEA 
november 2017 by nhaliday
Review of Yuval Harari's Sapiens: A Brief History of Humankind.
https://twitter.com/whyvert/status/928472237052649472
https://archive.is/MPO5Q
Yuval Harari's prominent book Sapiens: A Brief History of Humankind gets a thorough and well deserved fisking by C.R. Hallpike.

For Harari the great innovation that separated us from the apes was what he calls the Cognitive Revolution, around 70,000 years ago when we started migrating out of Africa, which he thinks gave us the same sort of modern minds that we have now. 'At the individual level, ancient foragers were the most knowledgeable and skilful people in history...Survival in that area required superb mental abilities from everyone' (55), and 'The people who carved the Stadel lion-man some 30,000 years ago had the same physical, emotional, and intellectual abilities we have' (44). Not surprisingly, then, 'We'd be able to explain to them everything we know - from the adventures of Alice in Wonderland to the paradoxes of quantum physics - and they could teach us how their people view the world' (23).

It's a sweet idea, and something like this imagined meeting actually took place a few years ago between the linguist Daniel Everett and the Piraha foragers of the Amazon in Peru (Everett 2008). But far from being able to discuss quantum theory with them, he found that the Piraha couldn't even count, and had no numbers of any kind, They could teach Everett how they saw the world, which was entirely confined to the immediate experience of the here-and-now, with no interest in past or future, or really in anything that could not be seen or touched. They had no myths or stories, so Alice in Wonderland would have fallen rather flat as well.

...

Summing up the book as a whole, one has often had to point out how surprisingly little he seems to have read on quite a number of essential topics. It would be fair to say that whenever his facts are broadly correct they are not new, and whenever he tries to strike out on his own he often gets things wrong, sometimes seriously. So we should not judge Sapiens as a serious contribution to knowledge but as 'infotainment', a publishing event to titillate its readers by a wild intellectual ride across the landscape of history, dotted with sensational displays of speculation, and ending with blood-curdling predictions about human destiny. By these criteria it is a most successful book.
pdf  books  review  expert-experience  critique  sapiens  history  antiquity  anthropology  multi  twitter  social  scitariat  commentary  quotes  attaq  westminster  backup  culture  realness  farmers-and-foragers  language  egalitarianism-hierarchy  inequality  learning  absolute-relative  malthus  tribalism  kinship  leviathan  government  leadership  volo-avolo  social-structure  taxes  studying  technology  religion  theos  sequential  universalism-particularism  antidemos  revolution  enlightenment-renaissance-restoration-reformation  science  europe  the-great-west-whale  age-of-discovery  iron-age  mediterranean  the-classics  reason  empirical  experiment  early-modern  islam  MENA  civic  institutions  the-trenches  innovation  agriculture  gnon 
november 2017 by nhaliday
The Constitutional Economics of Autocratic Succession on JSTOR
Abstract. The paper extends and empirically tests Gordon Tullock’s public choice theory of the nature of autocracy. A simple model of the relationship between constitutional rules governing succession in autocratic regimes and the occurrence of coups against autocrats is sketched. The model is applied to a case study of coups against monarchs in Denmark in the period ca. 935–1849. A clear connection is found between the specific constitutional rules governing succession and the frequency of coups. Specifically, the introduction of automatic hereditary succession in an autocracy provides stability and limits the number of coups conducted by contenders.

Table 2. General constitutional rules of succession, Denmark ca. 935–1849

To see this the data may be divided into three categories of constitutional rules of succession: One of open succession (for the periods 935–1165 and 1326–40), one of appointed succession combined with election (for the periods 1165–1326 and 1340–1536), and one of more or less formalized hereditary succession (1536–1849). On the basis of this categorization the data have been summarized in Table 3.

validity of empirics is a little sketchy

https://twitter.com/GarettJones/status/922103073257824257
https://archive.is/NXbdQ
The graphic novel it is based on is insightful, illustrates Tullock's game-theoretic, asymmetric information views on autocracy.

Conclusions from Gorton Tullock's book Autocracy, p. 211-215.: https://astro.temple.edu/~bstavis/courses/tulluck.htm
study  polisci  political-econ  economics  cracker-econ  big-peeps  GT-101  info-econ  authoritarianism  antidemos  government  micro  leviathan  elite  power  institutions  garett-jones  multi  econotariat  twitter  social  commentary  backup  art  film  comics  fiction  competition  europe  nordic  empirical  evidence-based  incentives  legacy  peace-violence  order-disorder  🎩  organizing  info-dynamics  history  medieval  law  axioms  stylized-facts  early-modern  data  longitudinal  flux-stasis  shift  revolution  correlation  org:junk  org:edu  summary  military  war  top-n  hi-order-bits  feudal  democracy  sulla  leadership  nascent-state  protocol-metadata 
october 2017 by nhaliday
Frontier Culture: The Roots and Persistence of “Rugged Individualism” in the United States∗
In a classic 1893 essay, Frederick Jackson Turner argued that the American frontier promoted individualism. We revisit the Frontier Thesis and examine its relevance at the subnational level. Using Census data and GIS techniques, we track the frontier throughout the 1790–1890 period and construct a novel, county-level measure of historical frontier experience. We document the distinctive demographics of frontier locations during this period—disproportionately male, prime-age adult, foreign-born, and illiterate—as well as their higher levels of individualism, proxied by the share of infrequent names among children. Many decades after the closing of the frontier, counties with longer historical frontier experience exhibit more prevalent individualism and opposition to redistribution and regulation. We take several steps towards a causal interpretation, including an instrumental variables approach that exploits variation in the speed of westward expansion induced by prior national immigration in- flows. Using linked historical Census data, we identify mechanisms giving rise to a persistent frontier culture. Greater individualism on the frontier was not driven solely by selective migration, suggesting that frontier conditions may have shaped behavior and values. We provide evidence suggesting that rugged individualism may be rooted in its adaptive advantage on the frontier and the opportunities for upward mobility through effort.

https://twitter.com/whyvert/status/921900860224897024
https://archive.is/jTzSe

The Origins of Cultural Divergence: Evidence from a Developing Country.: http://economics.handels.gu.se/digitalAssets/1643/1643769_37.-hoang-anh-ho-ncde-2017-june.pdf
Cultural norms diverge substantially across societies, often even within the same country. In this paper, we test the voluntary settlement hypothesis, proposing that individualistic people tend to self-select into migrating out of reach from collectivist states towards the periphery and that such patterns of historical migration are reflected even in the contemporary distribution of norms. For more than one thousand years during the first millennium CE, northern Vietnam was under an exogenously imposed Chinese rule. From the eleventh to the eighteenth centuries, ancient Vietnam gradually expanded its territory through various waves of southward conquest. We demonstrate that areas being annexed earlier into ancient Vietnam are nowadays more (less) prone to collectivist (individualist) culture. We argue that the southward out-migration of individualist people was the main mechanism behind this finding. The result is consistent across various measures obtained from an extensive household survey and robust to various control variables as well as to different empirical specifications, including an instrumental variable estimation. A lab-in-the-field experiment also confirms the finding.
pdf  study  economics  broad-econ  cliometrics  path-dependence  evidence-based  empirical  stylized-facts  values  culture  cultural-dynamics  anthropology  usa  frontier  allodium  the-west  correlation  individualism-collectivism  measurement  politics  ideology  expression-survival  redistribution  regulation  political-econ  government  migration  history  early-modern  pre-ww2  things  phalanges  🎩  selection  polisci  roots  multi  twitter  social  commentary  scitariat  backup  gnon  growth-econ  medieval  china  asia  developing-world  shift  natural-experiment  endo-exo  endogenous-exogenous  hari-seldon 
october 2017 by nhaliday
Returns to skills around the world: Evidence from PIAAC
https://twitter.com/pnin1957/status/918110589578293250
https://archive.is/901g4
Age differences in individual returns to numeracy skills. At age 20-24, a standard deviation higher test score predicts a 7% boost in hourly wages, while at age 40-44 the boost is almost 20%.

only OECD countries

developing world:
The relationship between school performance and future wages in Brazil: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1517758014000265
pdf  study  economics  labor  world  general-survey  psychometrics  iq  correlation  human-capital  compensation  life-history  age-generation  aging  multi  twitter  social  commentary  gnon  unaffiliated  backup  data  phalanges  pro-rata  hanushek  developing-world  europe  EU  germanic  list  ranking  database  anglosphere  usa  britain  anglo  latin-america  longitudinal  education  org:davos 
october 2017 by nhaliday
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