nhaliday + robotics   14

Moravec's paradox - Wikipedia
Moravec's paradox is the discovery by artificial intelligence and robotics researchers that, contrary to traditional assumptions, high-level reasoning requires very little computation, but low-level sensorimotor skills require enormous computational resources. The principle was articulated by Hans Moravec, Rodney Brooks, Marvin Minsky and others in the 1980s. As Moravec writes, "it is comparatively easy to make computers exhibit adult level performance on intelligence tests or playing checkers, and difficult or impossible to give them the skills of a one-year-old when it comes to perception and mobility".[1]

Similarly, Minsky emphasized that the most difficult human skills to reverse engineer are those that are unconscious. "In general, we're least aware of what our minds do best", he wrote, and added "we're more aware of simple processes that don't work well than of complex ones that work flawlessly".[2]


One possible explanation of the paradox, offered by Moravec, is based on evolution. All human skills are implemented biologically, using machinery designed by the process of natural selection. In the course of their evolution, natural selection has tended to preserve design improvements and optimizations. The older a skill is, the more time natural selection has had to improve the design. Abstract thought developed only very recently, and consequently, we should not expect its implementation to be particularly efficient.

As Moravec writes:

Encoded in the large, highly evolved sensory and motor portions of the human brain is a billion years of experience about the nature of the world and how to survive in it. The deliberate process we call reasoning is, I believe, the thinnest veneer of human thought, effective only because it is supported by this much older and much more powerful, though usually unconscious, sensorimotor knowledge. We are all prodigious olympians in perceptual and motor areas, so good that we make the difficult look easy. Abstract thought, though, is a new trick, perhaps less than 100 thousand years old. We have not yet mastered it. It is not all that intrinsically difficult; it just seems so when we do it.[3]

A compact way to express this argument would be:

- We should expect the difficulty of reverse-engineering any human skill to be roughly proportional to the amount of time that skill has been evolving in animals.
- The oldest human skills are largely unconscious and so appear to us to be effortless.
- Therefore, we should expect skills that appear effortless to be difficult to reverse-engineer, but skills that require effort may not necessarily be difficult to engineer at all.
concept  wiki  reference  paradox  ai  intelligence  reason  instinct  neuro  psychology  cog-psych  hardness  logic  deep-learning  time  evopsych  evolution  sapiens  the-self  EEA  embodied  embodied-cognition  abstraction  universalism-particularism  gnosis-logos  robotics 
june 2018 by nhaliday
Eternity in six hours: intergalactic spreading of intelligent life and sharpening the Fermi paradox
We do this by demonstrating that traveling between galaxies – indeed even launching a colonisation project for the entire reachable universe – is a relatively simple task for a star-spanning civilization, requiring modest amounts of energy and resources. We start by demonstrating that humanity itself could likely accomplish such a colonisation project in the foreseeable future, should we want to, and then demonstrate that there are millions of galaxies that could have reached us by now, using similar methods. This results in a considerable sharpening of the Fermi paradox.
pdf  study  article  essay  anthropic  fermi  space  expansionism  bostrom  ratty  philosophy  xenobio  ideas  threat-modeling  intricacy  time  civilization  🔬  futurism  questions  paradox  risk  physics  engineering  interdisciplinary  frontier  technology  volo-avolo  dirty-hands  ai  automation  robotics  duplication  iteration-recursion  von-neumann  data  scale  magnitude  skunkworks  the-world-is-just-atoms  hard-tech  ems  bio  bits  speedometer  nature  model-organism  mechanics  phys-energy  relativity  electromag  analysis  spock  nitty-gritty  spreading  hanson  street-fighting  speed  gedanken  nibble 
march 2018 by nhaliday
Information Processing: US Needs a National AI Strategy: A Sputnik Moment?
FT podcasts on US-China competition and AI: http://infoproc.blogspot.com/2018/05/ft-podcasts-on-us-china-competition-and.html

A new recommended career path for effective altruists: China specialist: https://80000hours.org/articles/china-careers/
Our rough guess is that it would be useful for there to be at least ten people in the community with good knowledge in this area within the next few years.

By “good knowledge” we mean they’ve spent at least 3 years studying these topics and/or living in China.

We chose ten because that would be enough for several people to cover each of the major areas listed (e.g. 4 within AI, 2 within biorisk, 2 within foreign relations, 1 in another area).

AI Policy and Governance Internship: https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/ai-policy-governance-internship/

Deciphering China’s AI Dream
The context, components, capabilities, and consequences of
China’s strategy to lead the world in AI

Europe’s AI delusion: https://www.politico.eu/article/opinion-europes-ai-delusion/
Brussels is failing to grasp threats and opportunities of artificial intelligence.

When the computer program AlphaGo beat the Chinese professional Go player Ke Jie in a three-part match, it didn’t take long for Beijing to realize the implications.

If algorithms can already surpass the abilities of a master Go player, it can’t be long before they will be similarly supreme in the activity to which the classic board game has always been compared: war.

As I’ve written before, the great conflict of our time is about who can control the next wave of technological development: the widespread application of artificial intelligence in the economic and military spheres.


If China’s ambitions sound plausible, that’s because the country’s achievements in deep learning are so impressive already. After Microsoft announced that its speech recognition software surpassed human-level language recognition in October 2016, Andrew Ng, then head of research at Baidu, tweeted: “We had surpassed human-level Chinese recognition in 2015; happy to see Microsoft also get there for English less than a year later.”


One obvious advantage China enjoys is access to almost unlimited pools of data. The machine-learning technologies boosting the current wave of AI expansion are as good as the amount of data they can use. That could be the number of people driving cars, photos labeled on the internet or voice samples for translation apps. With 700 or 800 million Chinese internet users and fewer data protection rules, China is as rich in data as the Gulf States are in oil.

How can Europe and the United States compete? They will have to be commensurately better in developing algorithms and computer power. Sadly, Europe is falling behind in these areas as well.


Chinese commentators have embraced the idea of a coming singularity: the moment when AI surpasses human ability. At that point a number of interesting things happen. First, future AI development will be conducted by AI itself, creating exponential feedback loops. Second, humans will become useless for waging war. At that point, the human mind will be unable to keep pace with robotized warfare. With advanced image recognition, data analytics, prediction systems, military brain science and unmanned systems, devastating wars might be waged and won in a matter of minutes.


The argument in the new strategy is fully defensive. It first considers how AI raises new threats and then goes on to discuss the opportunities. The EU and Chinese strategies follow opposite logics. Already on its second page, the text frets about the legal and ethical problems raised by AI and discusses the “legitimate concerns” the technology generates.

The EU’s strategy is organized around three concerns: the need to boost Europe’s AI capacity, ethical issues and social challenges. Unfortunately, even the first dimension quickly turns out to be about “European values” and the need to place “the human” at the center of AI — forgetting that the first word in AI is not “human” but “artificial.”

US military: "LOL, China thinks it's going to be a major player in AI, but we've got all the top AI researchers. You guys will help us develop weapons, right?"

US AI researchers: "No."

US military: "But... maybe just a computer vision app."

US AI researchers: "NO."

AI-risk was a mistake.
hsu  scitariat  commentary  video  presentation  comparison  usa  china  asia  sinosphere  frontier  technology  science  ai  speedometer  innovation  google  barons  deepgoog  stories  white-paper  strategy  migration  iran  human-capital  corporation  creative  alien-character  military  human-ml  nationalism-globalism  security  investing  government  games  deterrence  defense  nuclear  arms  competition  risk  ai-control  musk  optimism  multi  news  org:mag  europe  EU  80000-hours  effective-altruism  proposal  article  realness  offense-defense  war  biotech  altruism  language  foreign-lang  philosophy  the-great-west-whale  enhancement  foreign-policy  geopolitics  anglo  jobs  career  planning  hmm  travel  charity  tech  intel  media  teaching  tutoring  russia  india  miri-cfar  pdf  automation  class  labor  polisci  society  trust  n-factor  corruption  leviathan  ethics  authoritarianism  individualism-collectivism  revolution  economics  inequality  civic  law  regulation  data  scale  pro-rata  capital  zero-positive-sum  cooperate-defect  distribution  time-series  tre 
february 2018 by nhaliday
Gimbal lock - Wikipedia
Gimbal lock is the loss of one degree of freedom in a three-dimensional, three-gimbal mechanism that occurs when the axes of two of the three gimbals are driven into a parallel configuration, "locking" the system into rotation in a degenerate two-dimensional space.

The word lock is misleading: no gimbal is restrained. All three gimbals can still rotate freely about their respective axes of suspension. Nevertheless, because of the parallel orientation of two of the gimbals' axes there is no gimbal available to accommodate rotation along one axis.

Now this is where most people stop thinking about the issue and move on with their life. They just conclude that Euler angles are somehow broken. This is also where a lot of misunderstandings happen so it's worth investigating the matter slightly further than what causes gimbal lock.

It is important to understand that this is only problematic if you interpolate in Euler angles**! In a real physical gimbal this is given - you have no other choice. In computer graphics you have many other choices, from normalized matrix, axis angle or quaternion interpolation. Gimbal lock has a much more dramatic implication to designing control systems than it has to 3d graphics. Which is why a mechanical engineer for example will have a very different take on gimbal locking.

You don't have to give up using Euler angles to get rid of gimbal locking, just stop interpolating values in Euler angles. Of course, this means that you can now no longer drive a rotation by doing direct manipulation of one of the channels. But as long as you key the 3 angles simultaneously you have no problems and you can internally convert your interpolation target to something that has less problems.

Using Euler angles is just simply more intuitive to think in most cases. And indeed Euler never claimed it was good for interpolating but just that it can model all possible space orientations. So Euler angles are just fine for setting orientations like they were meant to do. Also incidentally Euler angles have the benefit of being able to model multi turn rotations which will not happen sanely for the other representations.
nibble  dirty-hands  physics  mechanics  robotics  degrees-of-freedom  measurement  gotchas  volo-avolo  duplication  wiki  reference  multi  q-n-a  stackex  graphics  spatial  direction  dimensionality  sky 
september 2017 by nhaliday
China Overtakes US in Scientific Articles, Robots, Supercomputers - The Unz Review
gnon  commentary  trends  usa  china  asia  comparison  sinosphere  frontier  technology  science  innovation  robotics  automation  latin-america  india  russia  scale  military  defense  foreign-policy  realpolitik  great-powers  kumbaya-kult  thucydides  multi  hsu  scitariat  heavy-industry  news  org:nat  org:sci  data  visualization  list  infographic  world  europe  EU  org:mag  dynamic  ranking  top-n  britain  anglo  japan  meta:science  anglosphere  database  germanic  org:biz  rhetoric  prediction  tech  labor  human-capital  education  higher-ed  money  compensation  idk  org:lite  expansionism  current-events  🔬  the-world-is-just-atoms  🎓  dirty-hands  org:rec  org:anglo  speedometer  track-record  time-series  monetary-fiscal  chart  quality 
may 2017 by nhaliday

bundles : techie

related tags

80000-hours  abstraction  accelerationism  advertising  agriculture  ai  ai-control  algorithms  alien-character  alignment  allodium  altruism  amazon  analogy  analysis  analytical-holistic  anglo  anglosphere  anthropic  antidemos  apollonian-dionysian  apple  aristos  arms  art  article  asia  atmosphere  attention  audio  authoritarianism  automation  backup  bare-hands  barons  being-becoming  benevolence  big-peeps  bio  biodet  bioinformatics  biotech  bits  bostrom  brands  britain  business  business-models  california  cancer  canon  capital  capitalism  career  cartoons  charity  chart  china  civic  civil-liberty  civilization  class  climate-change  coarse-fine  cocktail  cog-psych  cold-war  collaboration  commentary  comparison  compensation  competition  complement-substitute  composition-decomposition  computation  computer-vision  concept  concrete  consumerism  contrarianism  cooperate-defect  cornell  corporation  corruption  courage  course  creative  crime  crooked  cs  current-events  cycles  cynicism-idealism  dark-arts  darwinian  data  database  death  debt  decision-making  deep-learning  deep-materialism  deepgoog  defense  definite-planning  degrees-of-freedom  democracy  detail-architecture  deterrence  dimensionality  direction  dirty-hands  discussion  distribution  drugs  duplication  dynamic  early-modern  eastern-europe  economics  education  EEA  effective-altruism  efficiency  egalitarianism-hierarchy  einstein  electromag  elite  embodied  embodied-cognition  ems  energy-resources  engineering  enhancement  entrepreneurialism  environment  envy  error  essay  essence-existence  estimate  ethics  EU  europe  evolution  evopsych  examples  expansionism  explanans  explanation  exploratory  extra-introversion  facebook  fashun  FDA  fermi  feudal  fiction  finance  flexibility  focus  foreign-lang  foreign-policy  frontier  futurism  gallic  games  gedanken  generalization  genetics  genomics  geoengineering  geography  geopolitics  germanic  giants  gnon  gnosis-logos  god-man-beast-victim  google  gotchas  government  graphics  great-powers  hanson  hard-tech  hardness  hardware  harvard  heavy-industry  heterodox  hidden-motives  high-variance  higher-ed  history  hmm  homepage  homo-hetero  honor  hsu  human-capital  human-ml  humanity  hypocrisy  ideas  idk  impetus  india  individualism-collectivism  inequality  info-dynamics  infographic  innovation  insight  instinct  institutions  intel  intelligence  interdisciplinary  interests  interview  intricacy  investing  iran  iteration-recursion  janus  japan  jobs  justice  knowledge  kumbaya-kult  labor  language  latin-america  law  leadership  lecture-notes  left-wing  len:long  lens  leviathan  limits  links  list  literature  lmao  local-global  logic  lol  longevity  love-hate  machine-learning  macro  magnitude  management  marginal  market-power  markets  martial  math  math.CA  math.DS  measurement  mechanics  media  medicine  meta:science  meta:war  metabuch  metameta  microsoft  migration  military  miri-cfar  mobile  model-organism  moments  monetary-fiscal  money  morality  mostly-modern  multi  multiplicative  musk  myth  n-factor  narrative  nationalism-globalism  nature  network-structure  neuro  new-religion  news  nibble  nietzschean  nitty-gritty  noble-lie  northeast  nuclear  nutrition  nyc  occident  offense-defense  old-anglo  online-learning  open-closed  optimism  order-disorder  org:anglo  org:biz  org:foreign  org:lite  org:local  org:mag  org:med  org:nat  org:rec  org:sci  organization  organizing  orient  outcome-risk  outliers  parable  paradox  parallax  patience  pdf  peace-violence  people  personality  pessimism  phalanges  pharma  philosophy  phys-energy  physics  planning  plots  podcast  polanyi-marx  polarization  polisci  politics  popsci  power  power-law  pre-ww2  prediction  presentation  primitivism  princeton  privacy  pro-rata  probability  properties  proposal  psych-architecture  psychology  q-n-a  qra  quality  quantum  questions  quotes  random  randy-ayndy  ranking  ratty  realness  realpolitik  reason  recruiting  redistribution  reference  reflection  regularizer  regulation  reinforcement  relativity  religion  rent-seeking  research  responsibility  revolution  rhetoric  rhythm  risk  ritual  robotics  roots  russia  safety  sapiens  scale  science  scifi-fantasy  scitariat  search  securities  security  shakespeare  shift  signal-noise  signaling  sinosphere  skeleton  skunkworks  sky  social  social-choice  social-norms  society  socs-and-mops  software  space  spatial  speed  speedometer  spock  spreading  ssc  stackex  stagnation  stanford  startups  statesmen  stats  status  stereotypes  stochastic-processes  stock-flow  stories  strategy  street-fighting  structure  study  stylized-facts  success  summary  sv  synchrony  tactics  tails  teaching  tech  technology  techtariat  telos-atelos  the-classics  the-devil  the-founding  the-great-west-whale  the-self  the-watchers  the-west  the-world-is-just-atoms  theory-of-mind  theos  thick-thin  thiel  things  thinking  threat-modeling  thucydides  time  time-preference  time-series  top-n  toys  track-record  trade  tradeoffs  transportation  travel  trends  tribalism  trust  truth  tutoring  twitter  uncertainty  unintended-consequences  universalism-particularism  urban-rural  us-them  usa  values  venture  video  visual-understanding  visualization  vitality  volo-avolo  von-neumann  vulgar  war  wealth  welfare-state  west-hunter  white-paper  wiki  winner-take-all  wisdom  within-without  world  world-war  X-not-about-Y  xenobio  yvain  zero-positive-sum  zooming  🎓  🐸  🔬 

Copy this bookmark: