nhaliday + org:med   169

REST is the new SOAP | Hacker News
hn  commentary  techtariat  org:ngo  programming  engineering  web  client-server  networking  rant  rhetoric  contrarianism  idk  org:med  best-practices  working-stiff  api  models  protocol-metadata  internet  state  structure  chart  multi  q-n-a  discussion  expert-experience  track-record  reflection  cost-benefit  design  system-design  comparison  code-organizing  flux-stasis  interface-compatibility  trends  gotchas  stackex  state-of-art  distributed  concurrency  abstraction  concept  conceptual-vocab  python  ubiquity  list  top-n  duplication  synchrony  performance  caching 
27 days ago by nhaliday
Reasoning From First Principles: The Dumbest Thing Smart People Do
Most middle-class Americans at least act as if:
- Exactly four years of higher education is precisely the right level of training for the overwhelming majority of good careers.
- You should spend most of your waking hours most days of the week for the previous twelve+ years preparing for those four years. In your free time, be sure to do the kinds of things guidance counselors think are impressive; we as a society know that these people are the best arbiters of arete.
- Forty hours per week is exactly how long it takes to be reasonably successful in most jobs.
- On the margin, the cost of paying for money management exceeds the cost of adverse selection from not paying for it.
- You will definitely learn important information about someone’s spousal qualifications in years two through five of dating them.
-Human beings need about 50% more square feet per capita than they did a generation or two ago, and you should probably buy rather than rent it.
- Books are very boring, but TV is interesting.

All of these sound kind of dumb when you write them out. Even if they’re arguably true, you’d expect a good argument. You can be a low-risk contrarian by just picking a handful of these, articulating an alternative — either a way to get 80% of the benefit at 20% of the cost, or a way to pay a higher cost to get massively more benefits — and then living it.[1]
techtariat  econotariat  unaffiliated  wonkish  org:med  thinking  skeleton  being-right  paying-rent  rationality  pareto  cost-benefit  arbitrage  spock  epistemic  contrarianism  finance  personal-finance  investing  stories  metameta  advice  metabuch  strategy  education  higher-ed  labor  sex  housing  tv  meta:reading  axioms  truth  worse-is-better/the-right-thing 
6 weeks ago by nhaliday
The Compositional Nature of Vim - Ismail Badawi
https://medium.com/@mkozlows/why-atom-cant-replace-vim-433852f4b4d1
1976 was a good year for text editors. At MIT, Richard Stallman and Guy Steele wrote the first version of Emacs. And over at Berkeley, Bill Joy wrote vi (though it wouldn’t be called that for a few years yet).
It’s reductionist to say that these two editors were each built around one big idea, but what the hell, let’s be reductionist. Because what stands out today, looking at modern editors like Sublime Text and Atom, is how Emacs’ big idea has been thoroughly learned — and how vi’s big idea hasn’t.

Emacs and Extensibility
Vi and Composability
techtariat  editors  yak-shaving  productivity  workflow  composition-decomposition  metabuch  howto  syntax  lexical  objektbuch  degrees-of-freedom  flexibility  DSL  multi  integration-extension  org:med  atoms 
august 2019 by nhaliday
Three best practices for building successful data pipelines - O'Reilly Media
Drawn from their experiences and my own, I’ve identified three key areas that are often overlooked in data pipelines, and those are making your analysis:
1. Reproducible
2. Consistent
3. Productionizable

...

Science that cannot be reproduced by an external third party is just not science — and this does apply to data science. One of the benefits of working in data science is the ability to apply the existing tools from software engineering. These tools let you isolate all the dependencies of your analyses and make them reproducible.

Dependencies fall into three categories:
1. Analysis code ...
2. Data sources ...
3. Algorithmic randomness ...

...

Establishing consistency in data
...

There are generally two ways of establishing the consistency of data sources. The first is by checking-in all code and data into a single revision control repository. The second method is to reserve source control for code and build a pipeline that explicitly depends on external data being in a stable, consistent format and location.

Checking data into version control is generally considered verboten for production software engineers, but it has a place in data analysis. For one thing, it makes your analysis very portable by isolating all dependencies into source control. Here are some conditions under which it makes sense to have both code and data in source control:
Small data sets ...
Regular analytics ...
Fixed source ...

Productionizability: Developing a common ETL
...

1. Common data format ...
2. Isolating library dependencies ...

https://blog.koresoftware.com/blog/etl-principles
Rigorously enforce the idempotency constraint
For efficiency, seek to load data incrementally
Always ensure that you can efficiently process historic data
Partition ingested data at the destination
Rest data between tasks
Pool resources for efficiency
Store all metadata together in one place
Manage login details in one place
Specify configuration details once
Parameterize sub flows and dynamically run tasks where possible
Execute conditionally
Develop your own workflow framework and reuse workflow components

more focused on details of specific technologies:
https://medium.com/@rchang/a-beginners-guide-to-data-engineering-part-i-4227c5c457d7

https://www.cloudera.com/documentation/director/cloud/topics/cloud_de_best_practices.html
techtariat  org:com  best-practices  engineering  code-organizing  machine-learning  data-science  yak-shaving  nitty-gritty  workflow  config  vcs  replication  homo-hetero  multi  org:med  design  system-design  links  shipping  minimalism  volo-avolo  causation  random  invariance  structure  arrows  protocol-metadata  interface-compatibility 
august 2019 by nhaliday
How to work with GIT/SVN — good practices - Jakub Kułak - Medium
best part of this is the links to other guides
Commit Often, Perfect Later, Publish Once: https://sethrobertson.github.io/GitBestPractices/

My Favourite Git Commit: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=21289827
I use the following convention to start the subject of commit(posted by someone in a similar HN thread):
...
org:med  techtariat  tutorial  faq  guide  howto  workflow  devtools  best-practices  vcs  git  engineering  programming  multi  reference  org:junk  writing  technical-writing  hn  commentary  jargon  list  objektbuch  examples  analysis 
june 2019 by nhaliday
The End of the Editor Wars » Linux Magazine
Moreover, even if you assume a broad margin of error, the pollings aren't even close. With all the various text editors available today, Vi and Vim continue to be the choice of over a third of users, while Emacs well back in the pack, no longer a competitor for the most popular text editor.

https://www.quora.com/Are-there-more-Emacs-or-Vim-users
I believe Vim is actually more popular, but it's hard to find any real data on it. The best source I've seen is the annual StackOverflow developer survey where 15.2% of developers used Vim compared to a mere 3.2% for Emacs.

Oddly enough, the report noted that "Data scientists and machine learning developers are about 3 times more likely to use Emacs than any other type of developer," which is not necessarily what I would have expected.

[ed. NB: Vim still dominates overall.]

https://pinboard.in/u:nhaliday/b:6adc1b1ef4dc

Time To End The vi/Emacs Debate: https://cacm.acm.org/blogs/blog-cacm/226034-time-to-end-the-vi-emacs-debate/fulltext

Vim, Emacs and their forever war. Does it even matter any more?: https://blog.sourcerer.io/vim-emacs-and-their-forever-war-does-it-even-matter-any-more-697b1322d510
Like an episode of “Silicon Valley”, a discussion of Emacs vs. Vim used to have a polarizing effect that would guarantee a stimulating conversation, regardless of an engineer’s actual alignment. But nowadays, diehard Emacs and Vim users are getting much harder to find. Maybe I’m in the wrong orbit, but looking around today, I see that engineers are equally or even more likely to choose any one of a number of great (for any given definition of ‘great’) modern editors or IDEs such as Sublime Text, Visual Studio Code, Atom, IntelliJ (… or one of its siblings), Brackets, Visual Studio or Xcode, to name a few. It’s not surprising really — many top engineers weren’t even born when these editors were at version 1.0, and GUIs (for better or worse) hadn’t been invented.

...

… both forums have high traffic and up-to-the-minute comment and discussion threads. Some of the available statistics paint a reasonably healthy picture — Stackoverflow’s 2016 developer survey ranks Vim 4th out of 24 with 26.1% of respondents in the development environments category claiming to use it. Emacs came 15th with 5.2%. In combination, over 30% is, actually, quite impressive considering they’ve been around for several decades.

What’s odd, however, is that if you ask someone — say a random developer — to express a preference, the likelihood is that they will favor for one or the other even if they have used neither in anger. Maybe the meme has spread so widely that all responses are now predominantly ritualistic, and represent something more fundamental than peoples’ mere preference for an editor? There’s a rather obvious political hypothesis waiting to be made — that Emacs is the leftist, socialist, centralized state, while Vim represents the right and the free market, specialization and capitalism red in tooth and claw.

How is Emacs/Vim used in companies like Google, Facebook, or Quora? Are there any libraries or tools they share in public?: https://www.quora.com/How-is-Emacs-Vim-used-in-companies-like-Google-Facebook-or-Quora-Are-there-any-libraries-or-tools-they-share-in-public
In Google there's a fair amount of vim and emacs. I would say at least every other engineer uses one or another.

Among Software Engineers, emacs seems to be more popular, about 2:1. Among Site Reliability Engineers, vim is more popular, about 9:1.
--
People use both at Facebook, with (in my opinion) slightly better tooling for Emacs than Vim. We share a master.emacs and master.vimrc file, which contains the bare essentials (like syntactic highlighting for the Hack language). We also share a Ctags file that's updated nightly with a cron script.

Beyond the essentials, there's a group for Emacs users at Facebook that provides tips, tricks, and major-modes created by people at Facebook. That's where Adam Hupp first developed his excellent mural-mode (ahupp/mural), which does for Ctags what iDo did for file finding and buffer switching.
--
For emacs, it was very informal at Google. There wasn't a huge community of Emacs users at Google, so there wasn't much more than a wiki and a couple language styles matching Google's style guides.

https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=all&geo=US&q=%2Fm%2F07zh7,%2Fm%2F01yp0m

https://www.quora.com/Why-is-interest-in-Emacs-dropping
And it is still that. It’s just that emacs is no longer unique, and neither is Lisp.

Dynamically typed scripting languages with garbage collection are a dime a dozen now. Anybody in their right mind developing an extensible text editor today would just use python, ruby, lua, or JavaScript as the extension language and get all the power of Lisp combined with vibrant user communities and millions of lines of ready-made libraries that Stallman and Steele could only dream of in the 70s.

In fact, in many ways emacs and elisp have fallen behind: 40 years after Lambda, the Ultimate Imperative, elisp is still dynamically scoped, and it still doesn’t support multithreading — when I try to use dired to list the files on a slow NFS mount, the entire editor hangs just as thoroughly as it might have in the 1980s. And when I say “doesn’t support multithreading,” I don’t mean there is some other clever trick for continuing to do work while waiting on a system call, like asynchronous callbacks or something. There’s start-process which forks a whole new process, and that’s about it. It’s a concurrency model straight out of 1980s UNIX land.

But being essentially just a decent text editor has robbed emacs of much of its competitive advantage. In a world where every developer tool is scriptable with languages and libraries an order of magnitude more powerful than cranky old elisp, the reason to use emacs is not that it lets a programmer hit a button and evaluate the current expression interactively (which must have been absolutely amazing at one point in the past).

https://www.reddit.com/r/emacs/comments/bh5kk7/why_do_many_new_users_still_prefer_vim_over_emacs/

more general comparison, not just popularity:
Differences between Emacs and Vim: https://stackoverflow.com/questions/1430164/differences-between-Emacs-and-vim

https://www.reddit.com/r/emacs/comments/9hen7z/what_are_the_benefits_of_emacs_over_vim/

https://unix.stackexchange.com/questions/986/what-are-the-pros-and-cons-of-vim-and-emacs

https://www.quora.com/Why-is-Vim-the-programmers-favorite-editor
- Adrien Lucas Ecoffet,

Because it is hard to use. Really.

However, the second part of this sentence applies to just about every good editor out there: if you really learn Sublime Text, you will become super productive. If you really learn Emacs, you will become super productive. If you really learn Visual Studio… you get the idea.

Here’s the thing though, you never actually need to really learn your text editor… Unless you use vim.

...

For many people new to programming, this is the first time they have been a power user of… well, anything! And because they’ve been told how great Vim is, many of them will keep at it and actually become productive, not because Vim is particularly more productive than any other editor, but because it didn’t provide them with a way to not be productive.

They then go on to tell their friends how great Vim is, and their friends go on to become power users and tell their friends in turn, and so forth. All these people believe they became productive because they changed their text editor. Little do they realize that they became productive because their text editor changed them[1].

This is in no way a criticism of Vim. I myself was a beneficiary of such a phenomenon when I learned to type using the Dvorak layout: at that time, I believed that Dvorak would help you type faster. Now I realize the evidence is mixed and that Dvorak might not be much better than Qwerty. However, learning Dvorak forced me to develop good typing habits because I could no longer rely on looking at my keyboard (since I was still using a Qwerty physical keyboard), and this has made me a much more productive typist.

Technical Interview Performance by Editor/OS/Language: https://triplebyte.com/blog/technical-interview-performance-by-editor-os-language
[ed.: I'm guessing this is confounded to all hell.]

The #1 most common editor we see used in interviews is Sublime Text, with Vim close behind.

Emacs represents a fairly small market share today at just about a quarter the userbase of Vim in our interviews. This nicely matches the 4:1 ratio of Google Search Trends for the two editors.

...

Vim takes the prize here, but PyCharm and Emacs are close behind. We’ve found that users of these editors tend to pass our interview at an above-average rate.

On the other end of the spectrum is Eclipse: it appears that someone using either Vim or Emacs is more than twice as likely to pass our technical interview as an Eclipse user.

...

In this case, we find that the average Ruby, Swift, and C# users tend to be stronger, with Python and Javascript in the middle of the pack.

...

Here’s what happens after we select engineers to work with and send them to onsites:

[Python does best.]

There are no wild outliers here, but let’s look at the C++ segment. While C++ programmers have the most challenging time passing Triplebyte’s technical interview on average, the ones we choose to work with tend to have a relatively easier time getting offers at each onsite.

The Rise of Microsoft Visual Studio Code: https://triplebyte.com/blog/editor-report-the-rise-of-visual-studio-code
This chart shows the rates at which each editor's users pass our interview compared to the mean pass rate for all candidates. First, notice the preeminence of Emacs and Vim! Engineers who use these editors pass our interview at significantly higher rates than other engineers. And the effect size is not small. Emacs users pass our interview at a rate 50… [more]
news  linux  oss  tech  editors  devtools  tools  comparison  ranking  flux-stasis  trends  ubiquity  unix  increase-decrease  multi  q-n-a  qra  data  poll  stackex  sv  facebook  google  integration-extension  org:med  politics  stereotypes  coalitions  decentralized  left-wing  right-wing  chart  scale  time-series  distribution  top-n  list  discussion  ide  parsimony  intricacy  cost-benefit  tradeoffs  confounding  analysis  crosstab  pls  python  c(pp)  jvm  microsoft  golang  hmm  correlation  debate  critique  quora  contrarianism  ecosystem  DSL  techtariat  org:com 
june 2019 by nhaliday
No, Politics Is Not About Power – Arc Digital
What does it mean to say that politics is a contest of domination? For Robinson, “there are conflicting interests in society, and they are deep.” One side has value V, the other value not-V, so “there is no available compromise. There is only a test to see which one of us can have our values enacted in the world.” Conservative values, he says, “are that people should struggle for subsistence in a miserably unequal, sexist, and racist economy.” But to centrist liberals, “compromise is a goal rather than a tactic.” So, according to Robinson, these liberals end up allowing conservatives to inflict the immiseration they so desire upon the world.

This is a wild caricature, of course. But even in terms of his basic logic Robinson is doing some projecting here. For it is “dominance” as a tactic, not as a goal, that Heer critiques, and no tactical justification is given in response.

Freddie deBoer has wondered: “Why is it forbidden to say ‘I support your goals, but I find your tactics, your strategy, and your messaging counterproductive’?” Nothing against Freddie (and compare his views to mine), but the answer is common sense: If the people in question cared more about their goals than about their tactics, then they wouldn’t have such ridiculous tactics in the first place. They would be actually winning rather than talking, on podcasts and in online journals, about winning.

‘Tactics’ Are Not the Problem with Antifa: http://www.nationalreview.com/article/451092/antifa-violence-tactics-anger-politics-attacks-liberals-too
But isn’t this a familiar pattern by now? For the most part, in American political discourse, we — whether we’re conservatives or liberals ourselves — condemn those to our left on strategic grounds and those to our right on moral grounds. Thus we are constantly trying to explain to those on our left that we share their values, that we have their best interests at heart when we express our strategic considerations; and to those on our right that we don’t share their values, that their strategic considerations have no bearing on our interests. With our right hands, we push (punch?); with our left hands, pull toward.

https://johnhalle.com/violence-and-the-far-right-chomsky-responds/
org:med  unaffiliated  left-wing  rhetoric  politics  polisci  ideology  subculture  civic  civil-liberty  social-norms  essay  tribalism  us-them  nl-and-so-can-you  philosophy  power  strategy  meta:rhetoric  multi  news  org:mag  right-wing  tactics  values  things  morality  hypocrisy  media  propaganda 
august 2017 by nhaliday
加雷特•琼斯 on Twitter: "The hottest take would be Krehbiel's Legislative Organization angle: Five members are more than enough if they're on the same subcommittee. https://t.co/kebW0la9bF"
https://archive.is/fur9V

https://twitter.com/GarettJones/status/893504340496961537
https://archive.is/fur9V
As if more than five members of Congress could understand this.

Don't know! I know that we're all supposed to endorse open government, but that presumption should be interrogated.

Bring Back the Smoke-Filled Rooms: http://web.archive.org/web/20150503211359/http://cookpolitical.com/story/8407

https://twitter.com/GarettJones/status/893506016905752577
https://archive.is/LGtHN
Lowi's End of Liberalism & McCubbins/Schwartz 🔥 Alarms haunt CBO oversight:
Members won't get expertise: Delegation is the only option.

Lowi: https://medium.com/amor-mundi/ted-lowi-in-memoriam-of-his-work-bc88822b3419
basically the managerial state

A second, and more dangerous form of bureaucracy, is “government by decree.” It is a government that sees the law as a hindrance, an obstacle to be overcome in the bureaucratic effort to govern the people directly. Decrees are anonymous. They give the impression of constant action. It is government that eschews principles for the quick and personalized response to ever-changing circumstances. Arendt writes, “People ruled by decree never know what rules them because of the impossibility of understanding decrees in themselves and the carefully organized ignorance of specific circumstances and their practical significance in which all administrators keep their subjects.”

Reflecting Arendt, Lowi argues that liberalism has led in the United States to a government of “policy without law,” something like a government by decree. An essential part of this government by decree is the abandonment by the Congress of its governing responsibility, which it has increasingly delegated to the administrative state. The effort of liberal government, Lowi argues, is to “avoid enunciating a rule” and to replace clear rules and standards with “the principle of bargaining on each decision.” This is in fact Lowi’s overarching thesis: That liberalism replaces power with bargaining. “Liberal governments cannot plan. Planning requires the authoritative use of authority. Planning requires law, choice, priorities, moralities. Liberalism replaces planning with bargaining. Yet at bottom, power is unacceptable without planning.”

In the second edition of The End of Liberalism, Lowi added a subtitle, “The Second Republic of the United States.” The book tells a story of the transformation from the First to the Second Republic. In the First Republic, which goes from 1787 until about 1960, the states did most of the governing. The national government was both small and, more importantly, did very little governing. To the extent the federal government did govern, government was “Congress-centered.” The Congress was the main legislative arm of government. It was where the power of the Federal government was located.

...

The result of such a government by administration is what Lowi calls “socialism for the organized, capitalism for the unorganized.” It is a system that favors bigger and more organized businesses, unions, and interest groups. “It is biased not so much in favor of the rich as in favor of the established and the organized…. Above all it respects the established jurisdictions of government agencies and the established territories of private corporations and groups.” In short, the Second Republic offers a kind of politics that is “supportive of the clientele it seeks to deal with,” the organized interest groups that make claims upon it.

The Strength of a Weak State: The Rights Revolution and the Rise of Human Resources Management Divisions: http://scholar.harvard.edu/files/dobbin/files/1998_ajs_sutton.pdf

related: https://pinboard.in/u:nhaliday/b:e295cdb33beb

'police patrol' vs. 'faire alarms': https://www.unc.edu/~fbaum/teaching/PLSC541_Fall08/mcubbins_schwartz_1984.pdf
econotariat  garett-jones  twitter  social  commentary  current-events  politics  government  polisci  institutions  ideology  books  recommendations  multi  pdf  study  usa  🎩  open-closed  decision-making  managerial-state  anarcho-tyranny  trust  rot  zeitgeist  leviathan  org:med  summary  law  authoritarianism  antidemos  technocracy  trends  history  mostly-modern  capitalism  madisonian  regulation  redistribution  nascent-state  cohesion  cynicism-idealism  sociology  labor  industrial-org  gender  race  identity-politics  management  corporation  backup  gibbon  cold-war  local-global  ideas 
august 2017 by nhaliday
Defection – quas lacrimas peperere minoribus nostris!
https://quaslacrimas.wordpress.com/2017/06/28/discussion-of-defection/

Kindness Against The Grain: https://srconstantin.wordpress.com/2017/06/08/kindness-against-the-grain/
I’ve heard from a number of secular-ish sources (Carse, Girard, Arendt) that the essential contribution of Christianity to human thought is the concept of forgiveness. (Ribbonfarm also has a recent post on the topic of forgiveness.)

I have never been a Christian and haven’t even read all of the New Testament, so I’ll leave it to commenters to recommend Christian sources on the topic.

What I want to explore is the notion of kindness without a smooth incentive gradient.

The Social Module: https://bloodyshovel.wordpress.com/2015/10/09/the-social-module/
Now one could propose that the basic principle of human behavior is to raise the SP number. Sure there’s survival and reproduction. Most people would forget all their socialization if left hungry and thirsty for days in the jungle. But more often than not, survival and reproduction depend on being high status; having a good name among your peers is the best way to get food, housing and hot mates.

The way to raise one’s SP number depends on thousands of different factors. We could grab most of them and call them “culture”. In China having 20 teenage mistresses as an old man raises your SP; in Western polite society it is social death. In the West making a fuss about disobeying one’s parents raises your SP, everywhere else it lowers it a great deal. People know that; which is why bureaucrats in China go to great lengths to acquire a stash of young women (who they seldom have time to actually enjoy), while teenagers in the West go to great lengths to be annoying to their parents for no good reason.

...

It thus shouldn’t surprise us that something as completely absurd as Progressivism is the law of the land in most of the world today, even though it denies obvious reality. It is not the case that most people know that progressive points are all bogus, but obey because of fear or cowardice. No, an average human brain has much more neurons being used to scan the social climate and see how SP are allotted, than neurons being used to analyze patterns in reality to ascertain the truth. Surely your brain does care a great deal about truth in some very narrow areas of concern to you. Remember Conquest’s first law: Everybody is Conservative about what he knows best. You have to know the truth about what you do, if you are to do it effectively.

But you don’t really care about truth anywhere else. And why would you? It takes time and effort you can’t really spare, and it’s not really necessary. As long as you have some area of specialization where you can make a living, all the rest you must do to achieve survival and reproduction is to raise your SP so you don’t get killed and your guts sacrificed to the mountain spirits.

SP theory (I accept suggestions for a better name) can also explains the behavior of leftists. Many conservatives of a medium level of enlightenment point out the paradox that leftists historically have held completely different ideas. Leftism used to be about the livelihood of industrial workers, now they agitate about the environment, or feminism, or foreigners. Some people would say that’s just historical change, or pull a No True Scotsman about this or that group not being really leftists. But that’s transparent bullshit; very often we see a single person shifting from agitating about Communism and worker rights, to agitate about global warming or rape culture.

...

The leftist strategy could be defined as “psychopathic SP maximization”. Leftists attempt to destroy social equilibrium so that they can raise their SP number. If humans are, in a sense, programmed to constantly raise their status, well high status people by definition can’t raise it anymore (though they can squabble against each other for marginal gains), their best strategy is to freeze society in place so that they can enjoy their superiority. High status people by definition have power, and thus social hierarchy during human history tends to be quite stable.

This goes against the interests of many. First of all the lower status people, who, well, want to raise their status, but can’t manage to do so. And it also goes against the interests of the particularly annoying members of the upper class who want to raise their status on the margin. Conservative people can be defined as those who, no matter the absolute level, are in general happy with it. This doesn’t mean they don’t want higher status (by definition all humans do), but the output of other brain modules may conclude that attempts to raise SP might threaten one’s survival and reproduction; or just that the chances of raising one’s individual SP is hopeless, so one might as well stay put.

...

You can’t blame people for being logically inconsistent; because they can’t possibly know anything about all these issues. Few have any experience or knowledge about evolution and human races, or about the history of black people to make an informed judgment on HBD. Few have time to learn about sex differences, and stuff like the climate is as close to unknowable as there is. Opinions about anything but a very narrow area of expertise are always output of your SP module, not any judgment of fact. People don’t know the facts. And even when they know; I mean most people have enough experience with sex differences and black dysfunction to be quite confident that progressive ideas are false. But you can never be sure. As Hume said, the laws of physics are a judgment of habit; who is to say that a genie isn’t going to change all you know the next morning? At any rate, you’re always better off toeing the line, following the conventional wisdom, and keeping your dear SP. Perhaps you can even raise them a bit. And that is very nice. It is niceness itself.

Leftism is just an easy excuse: https://bloodyshovel.wordpress.com/2015/03/01/leftism-is-just-an-easy-excuse/
Unless you’re not the only defector. You need a way to signal your intention to defect, so that other disloyal fucks such as yourself (and they’re bound to be others) can join up, thus reducing the likely costs of defection. The way to signal your intention to defect is to come up with a good excuse. A good excuse to be disloyal becomes a rallying point through which other defectors can coordinate and cover their asses so that the ruling coalition doesn’t punish them. What is a good excuse?

Leftism is a great excuse. Claiming that the ruling coalition isn’t leftist enough, isn’t holy enough, not inclusive enough of women, of blacks, of gays, or gorillas, of pedophiles, of murderous Salafists, is the perfect way of signalling your disloyalty towards the existing power coalition. By using the existing ideology and pushing its logic just a little bit, you ensure that the powerful can’t punish you. At least not openly. And if you’re lucky, the mass of disloyal fucks in the ruling coalition might join your banner, and use your exact leftist point to jump ship and outflank the powerful.

...

The same dynamic fuels the flattery inflation one sees in monarchical or dictatorial systems. In Mao China, if you want to defect, you claim to love Mao more than your boss. In Nazi Germany, you proclaim your love for Hitler and the great insight of his plan to take Stalingrad. In the Roman Empire, you claimed that Caesar is a God, son of Hercules, and those who deny it are treacherous bastards. In Ancient Persia you loudly proclaimed your faith in the Shah being the brother of the Sun and the Moon and King of all Kings on Earth. In Reformation Europe you proclaimed that you have discovered something new in the Bible and everybody else is damned to hell. Predestined by God!

...

And again: the precise content of the ideological point doesn’t matter. Your human brain doesn’t care about ideology. Humans didn’t evolve to care about Marxist theory of class struggle, or about LGBTQWERTY theories of social identity. You just don’t know what it means. It’s all abstract points you’ve been told in a classroom. It doesn’t actually compute. Nothing that anybody ever said in a political debate ever made any actual, concrete sense to a human being.

So why do we care so much about politics? What’s the point of ideology? Ideology is just the water you swim in. It is a structured database of excuses, to be used to signal your allegiance or defection to the existing ruling coalition. Ideology is just the feed of the rationalization Hamster that runs incessantly in that corner of your brain. But it is immaterial, and in most cases actually inaccessible to the logical modules in your brain.

Nobody ever acts on their overt ideological claims if they can get away with it. Liberals proclaim their faith in the potential of black children while clustering in all white suburbs. Communist party members loudly talk about the proletariat while being hedonistic spenders. Al Gore talks about Global Warming while living in a lavish mansion. Cognitive dissonance, you say? No; those cognitive systems are not connected in the first place.

...

And so, every little step in the way, power-seekers moved the consensus to the left. And open societies, democratic systems are by their decentralized nature, and by the size of their constituencies, much more vulnerable to this sort of signalling attacks. It is but impossible to appraise and enforce the loyalty of every single individual involved in a modern state. There’s too many of them. A Medieval King had a better chance of it; hence the slow movement of ideological innovation in those days. But the bigger the organization, the harder it is to gather accurate information of the loyalty of the whole coalition; and hence the ideological movement accelerates. And there is no stopping it.

Like the Ancients, We Have Gods. They’ll Get Greater: http://www.overcomingbias.com/2018/04/like-the-ancients-we-have-gods-they-may-get… [more]
gnon  commentary  critique  politics  polisci  strategy  tactics  thinking  GT-101  game-theory  cooperate-defect  hypocrisy  institutions  incentives  anthropology  morality  ethics  formal-values  ideology  schelling  equilibrium  multi  links  debate  ethnocentrism  cultural-dynamics  decision-making  socs-and-mops  anomie  power  info-dynamics  propaganda  signaling  axelrod  organizing  impetus  democracy  antidemos  duty  coalitions  kinship  religion  christianity  theos  n-factor  trust  altruism  noble-lie  japan  asia  cohesion  reason  scitariat  status  fashun  history  mostly-modern  world-war  west-hunter  sulla  unintended-consequences  iron-age  china  sinosphere  stories  leviathan  criminal-justice  peace-violence  nihil  wiki  authoritarianism  egalitarianism-hierarchy  cocktail  ssc  parable  open-closed  death  absolute-relative  justice  management  explanans  the-great-west-whale  occident  orient  courage  vitality  domestication  revolution  europe  pop-diff  alien-character  diversity  identity-politics  westminster  kumbaya-kult  cultu 
june 2017 by nhaliday
Nancy MacLean Owes Tyler Cowen an Apology – Russ Roberts – Medium
https://notesonliberty.com/2017/06/26/james-buchanan-on-racism/
http://econlog.econlib.org/archives/2017/06/nancy_macleans.html
http://www.nationalreview.com/corner/448958/nancy-maclean-vs-tyler-cowen
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/volokh-conspiracy/wp/2017/06/28/some-dubious-claims-in-nancy-macleans-democracy-in-chains/
http://www.independent.org/issues/article.asp?id=9115
http://www.arnoldkling.com/blog/wither-academic-ethics/
lol: https://twitter.com/tcjfs/status/879717516184080384
hmm: https://twitter.com/razibkhan/status/891134709924868096
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2017/08/04/james-buchanan-was-committed-to-basic-democratic-values/
http://policytrajectories.asa-comparative-historical.org/2017/08/book-symposium-democracy-in-chains/
http://bostonreview.net/class-inequality/henry-farrell-steven-m-teles-when-politics-drives-scholarship
http://bostonreview.net/class-inequality/marshall-steinbaum-book-explains-charlottesville
https://twitter.com/Econ_Marshall/status/903289946357858306
https://archive.is/LalIc
So any political regime premised on defending property rights is race-biased. If you want to call that racist, I think it's justified.

lmao wut
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/volokh-conspiracy/wp/2017/09/01/georg-vanberg-democracy-in-chains-and-james-m-buchanan-on-school-integration/

https://www.wsj.com/articles/historical-fiction-at-duke-1508449507

The Bizarre Conspiracy Theory Nominated for a National Book Award: http://www.nationalreview.com/article/453408/nancy-macleans-democracy-chains-will-conspiracy-theory-win-national-book-award

https://thebaffler.com/salvos/master-class-on-the-make-hartman
econotariat  org:econlib  cracker-econ  randy-ayndy  org:med  essay  critique  debate  marginal-rev  economics  government  antidemos  civil-liberty  markets  capitalism  democracy  policy  institutions  books  multi  race  news  org:mag  right-wing  org:rec  commentary  twitter  social  gnxp  scitariat  track-record  epistemic  info-dynamics  westminster  gnon  unaffiliated  lol  coalitions  politics  identity-politics  review  letters  discussion  property-rights  backup  ethnocentrism  wtf  wut  drama  discrimination  current-events  truth  academia  org:lite  left-wing  usa  the-south  revolution  war  polanyi-marx  communism  social-choice  interests  dominant-minority  class  class-warfare  trump  history  mostly-modern  cold-war  asia  developing-world  corporation  rot  feudal 
june 2017 by nhaliday
Where Is Fertility Low, and Since When? – In a State of Migration – Medium
org:med  econotariat  wonkish  demographics  population  fertility  usa  trends  migration  within-group  longevity  time-series  roots  multi  org:ngo  intervention  track-record  europe  gallic  policy  money  education  higher-ed  china  asia  polis  developing-world  israel  canada  britain  anglo  germanic  links  survey  summary  long-short-run  effect-size  null-result  pessimism  monetary-fiscal  cost-benefit  data  increase-decrease  microfoundations  news  org:data  org:lite  gender  hari-seldon  gnon  org:popup  org:mag  org:foreign  attaq  journos-pundits  correlation  causation  korea  tradition  politics  right-wing  values  twitter  social  commentary  backup  labor  economics  parenting 
june 2017 by nhaliday
The story of modern human origins just got more complicated
https://www.gnxp.com/WordPress/2017/06/06/a-reticulation-pulse-expansion-of-modern-human-genetic-variation/
https://www.gnxp.com/WordPress/2017/06/11/the-search-for-eden-opens-up-new-vistas/
https://www.gnxp.com/WordPress/2017/08/26/northeast-africa/

https://www.gnxp.com/WordPress/2018/01/25/out-of-africa-to-out-of-eden-well-perhaps-not-yet/
https://www.gnxp.com/WordPress/2018/01/28/none-dare-call-it-multiregionalism/

The slow death of Out of Africa: http://dienekes.blogspot.com/2018/04/the-slow-death-of-out-of-africa.html
The significance of the discovery of modern humans in Arabia >85kya is that it provides a second spot (other than Israel) were modern humans existed outside Africa long before the alleged 60kya blitz out of the continent. We now have modern humans outside Africa in roughly two locations (Israel and Arabia), and three time slices (~175-85kya) in Misliya, Shkul/Qafzeh, and Al Wusta-1. It is no longer tenable to claim that these modern humans "died out" to make way for the alleged 60kya OoA event.
org:med  west-hunter  scitariat  commentary  study  summary  sapiens  roots  africa  world  europe  asia  pop-structure  archaics  gene-flow  diversity  genetics  history  antiquity  migration  big-picture  explanation  pop-diff  homo-hetero  intricacy  cool  s:*  multi  gnxp  archaeology  anthropology  MENA  aDNA  eden  israel  chart 
june 2017 by nhaliday
the Iron Law of Institutions and the left – Freddie deBoer – Medium
During the Democratic presidential primary and the general election, you may have heard reference to the Iron Law of Institutions. It’s a really essential idea articulated by Jon Schwartz in a blog post that I recommend you read in full.
The Iron Law of Institutions is this: “the people who control institutions care first and foremost about their power within the institution rather than the power of the institution itself. Thus, they would rather the institution ‘fail’ while they remain in power within the institution than for the institution to “succeed” if that requires them to lose power within the institution.”
org:med  unaffiliated  left-wing  rhetoric  metabuch  thinking  politics  polisci  stylized-facts  institutions  power  incentives  strategy  error  coalitions  cooperate-defect  selfish-gene  near-far  organizing 
june 2017 by nhaliday
Cold War Triumph of Liberal Capitalism — in Hindsight
Edit (an addendum): My point is that most of the violent illiberal means by which the Cold War was waged constituted pure waste. They were ineffective and unnecessary. They did not matter in the end. Decision-makers at the time may have rationally thought differently, but in retrospect it appears to be true. How can anyone disagree? Was the American war in Vietnam or the Soviet war in Afghanistan not a big waste of human life and national fortune?

http://www.bradford-delong.com/2017/05/perhaps-today-we-see-not-a-new-crisis-of-liberal-democratic-capitalism-but-an-old-condition-recurringlike-herpes-if-you.html

Peripheral Strategies: https://westhunt.wordpress.com/2018/02/18/peripheral-strategies/
Pseudoerasmus had an interesting thought about the Cold War: that all the West’s efforts in the Third World were pointless, had little effect on the ultimate outcome, with the possible exception of some big oil producers. “most developing countries could have disappeared into a black hole 16 galaxies away & it might have made little difference to the outcome.”

Nice to be arguing with someone who’s not crazy, for a change.

...

Look at the correlation of forces, write down the power equation, and he sure looks right.

But he’s not right.
org:med  pseudoE  econotariat  broad-econ  critique  reflection  history  mostly-modern  cold-war  usa  russia  communism  policy  world  foreign-policy  realpolitik  nationalism-globalism  expansionism  competition  cost-benefit  rhetoric  multi  asia  developing-world  war  MENA  west-hunter  scitariat  discussion  questions  impetus  impact  strategy 
june 2017 by nhaliday
Interview: Mostly Sealing Wax | West Hunter
https://soundcloud.com/user-519115521/greg-cochran-part-2
https://medium.com/@houstoneuler/annotating-part-2-of-the-greg-cochran-interview-with-james-miller-678ba33f74fc

- conformity and Google, defense and spying (China knows prob almost all our "secrets")
- in the past you could just find new things faster than people could reverse-engineer. part of the problem is that innovation is slowing down today (part of the reason for convergence by China/developing world).
- introgression from archaics of various kinds
- mutational load and IQ, wrath of khan neanderthal
- trade and antiquity (not that useful besides ideas tbh), Roman empire, disease, smallpox
- spices needed to be grown elsewhere, but besides that...
- analogy: caste system in India (why no Brahmin car repairmen?), slavery in Greco-Roman times, more water mills in medieval times (rivers better in north, but still could have done it), new elite not liking getting hands dirty, low status of engineers, rise of finance
- crookery in finance, hedge fund edge might be substantially insider trading
- long-term wisdom of moving all manufacturing to China...?
- economic myopia: British financialization before WW1 vis-a-vis Germany. North vs. South and cotton/industry, camels in Middle East vs. wagons in Europe
- Western medicine easier to convert to science than Eastern, pseudoscience and wrong theories better than bag of recipes
- Greeks definitely knew some things that were lost (eg, line in Pliny makes reference to combinatorics calculation rediscovered by German dude much later. think he's referring to Catalan numbers?), Lucio Russo book
- Indo-Europeans, Western Europe, Amerindians, India, British Isles, gender, disease, and conquest
- no farming (Dark Age), then why were people still farming on Shetland Islands north of Scotland?
- "symbolic" walls, bodies with arrows
- family stuff, children learning, talking dog, memory and aging
- Chinese/Japanese writing difficulty and children learning to read
- Hatfield-McCoy feud: the McCoy family was actually a case study in a neurological journal. they had anger management issues because of cancers of their adrenal gland (!!).

the Chinese know...: https://macropolo.org/casting-off-real-beijings-cryptic-warnings-finance-taking-economy/
Over the last couple of years, a cryptic idiom has crept into the way China’s top leaders talk about risks in the country’s financial system: tuo shi xiang xu (脱实向虚), which loosely translates as “casting off the real for the empty.” Premier Li Keqiang warned against it at his press conference at the end of the 2016 National People’s Congress (NPC). At this year’s NPC, Li inserted this very expression into his annual work report. And in April, while on an inspection tour of Guangxi, President Xi Jinping used the term, saying that China must “unceasingly promote industrial modernization, raise the level of manufacturing, and not allow the real to be cast off for the empty.”

Such an odd turn of phrase is easy to overlook, but it belies concerns about a significant shift in the way that China’s economy works. What Xi and Li were warning against is typically called financialization in developed economies. It’s when “real” companies—industrial firms, manufacturers, utility companies, property developers, and anyone else that produces a tangible product or service—take their money and, rather than put it back into their businesses, invest it in “empty”, or speculative, assets. It occurs when the returns on financial investments outstrip those in the real economy, leading to a disproportionate amount of money being routed into the financial system.

https://twitter.com/gcochran99/status/1160589827651203073
https://archive.is/Yzjyv
Bad day for Lehman Bros.
--
Good day for everyone else, then.
west-hunter  interview  audio  podcast  econotariat  cracker-econ  westminster  culture-war  polarization  tech  sv  google  info-dynamics  business  multi  military  security  scitariat  intel  error  government  defense  critique  rant  race  clown-world  patho-altruism  history  mostly-modern  cold-war  russia  technology  innovation  stagnation  being-right  archaics  gene-flow  sapiens  genetics  the-trenches  thinking  sequential  similarity  genomics  bioinformatics  explanation  europe  asia  china  migration  evolution  recent-selection  immune  atmosphere  latin-america  ideas  sky  developing-world  embodied  africa  MENA  genetic-load  unintended-consequences  iq  enhancement  aDNA  gedanken  mutation  QTL  missing-heritability  tradeoffs  behavioral-gen  biodet  iron-age  mediterranean  the-classics  trade  gibbon  disease  parasites-microbiome  demographics  population  urban  transportation  efficiency  cost-benefit  india  agriculture  impact  status  class  elite  vampire-squid  analogy  finance  higher-ed  trends  rot  zeitgeist  🔬  hsu  stories  aphorism  crooked  realne 
may 2017 by nhaliday
The curious rise of the ‘white left’ as a Chinese internet insult | openDemocracy
baizuo
http://infoproc.blogspot.com/2017/05/baizuo-libtard.html
https://twitter.com/menangahela/status/863840301785526273
this is the right wing intellectual equivalent of getting off to bbc porn
big asian iq/temperament shaped by thousands of years of malthusian capitalism & intensive agriculture DESTROYS white enlightenment morality
https://twitter.com/dkpseudo/status/864391296911163392
http://www.sixthtone.com/news/1000477/white-left-the-internet-insult-the-west-has-gotten-wrong
One of the key texts of the anti-white left is an online essay by a Weibo user named “Fantasy Lover Mr. Liu,” titled “The Road to Spiritual Plague: The History of the Evolution of the White Left.” The abrasive text begins: “Trump’s victory is only a small stone flung from humanity’s sling against the giant we face: the spiritual plague.”

Liu’s essay is, essentially, a somewhat unhinged history of the white left. He identifies several waves of the white left, the third wave coming with thinkers like Michel Foucault and the Frankfurt School, whom, he writes, were so traumatized by the horrors of the Second World War that they sought to deconstruct Western culture without actually considering an alternative.

The fourth and final wave, Liu says, was led by the students of the professors who had staged protests against the Vietnam War and had succeeded in ousting established academics on both the left and the right. He argues that academic curiosity was lost as the New Left demanded ideological purity on the questions of identity politics. To Liu, intellectual shallowness, isolation, and violence constitute the main features of the modern white left. Its advocates created a hive-mind in academia, which allowed them to spread white left values through Western society. The riots and protests that followed the election of Trump are the best evidence of this.

Chinese Social Media Notices US Cultural Revolution: http://infoproc.blogspot.com/2017/08/chinese-social-media-notices-us.html
http://thefederalist.com/2017/08/23/american-anarchy-parallels-chinas-cultural-revolution/

Air China magazine warns London visitors to avoid ethnic minority areas: http://www.cnbc.com/2016/09/07/air-chinas-safety-tips-for-london-visitors-may-raise-eyebrows.html

Sinic culture warring:
Singapore: https://medium.com/chinese-privilege/to-my-dear-fellow-singapore-chinese-shut-up-when-a-minority-is-talking-about-race-48e00d7c7073
https://twitter.com/tcjfs/status/871821559215923200
https://archive.is/Uxco6
The virus has reached Hong Kong (April 2017).
http://www.soh.hku.hk/docs/SOH_Inclusive_Language.pdf
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Singaporean_Chinese_privilege

https://twitter.com/menangahela/status/914915192873644032
https://archive.is/ECBS6
china will beat us because making money reliably gets you pussy there
this is what Nick Land was trying to get at with the whole 'libidinal materialism' idea
So you're saying James Damore is the harbinger of the failure of "capitalism with American characteristics" for this reason.

https://twitter.com/menangahela/status/914905587489607680
https://archive.is/KftzV
people dont really make money for explicitly instrumental reasons anymore

http://www.rollingstone.com/culture/features/elon-musk-inventors-plans-for-outer-space-cars-finding-love-w511747
https://twitter.com/NoamJStein/status/930884963657957376
https://archive.is/yw0j8
Surreal to read several paragraphs of “tfw no gf” from a guy worth 10 figures

https://bloodyshovel.wordpress.com/2017/05/15/the-white-left/

https://twitter.com/RoundSqrCupola/status/952378865606938624
https://archive.is/a3zAH
Saving the Baizuo from his own stupidity is a important task. But very difficult and thankless.

https://twitter.com/RoundSqrCupola/status/952685733847949313
https://archive.is/PKcOz
I feel like I can predict how the Baizuo will behave, and the arguments he will give. But for the life of me I can’t understand his perspective.

https://twitter.com/RoundSqrCupola/status/952755125969354752
https://archive.is/6Jv31
The best places to live are inhabited by the Baizuo. The Baizuo makes for a good friend. And yet... he is a Baizuo. 😓

https://twitter.com/RoundSqrCupola/status/952687872557092864
https://archive.is/0hznI
Can the Baizuo be saved from his own stupidity?

83% too far gone...:(

https://twitter.com/HappyHectares/status/954396128111247361
https://archive.is/aEi0B
Multicultural America
I'm privy to a Chinese family having a meltdown because father was assigned an Indian doctor - eldest son is flying in - they want "a white doctor", not an affirmative-action doctor - a matter of honor & duty
--
Do Chinese see whites as dumb or misguided or both? I've heard mixed comments on this?
--
They see us as "too nice" - a beautiful but short-lived flower
news  org:lite  trends  current-events  china  asia  sinosphere  politics  ideology  nl-and-so-can-you  westminster  water  embedded-cognition  lol  race  internet  patho-altruism  clown-world  usa  migration  welfare-state  inequality  allodium  migrant-crisis  left-wing  multi  hsu  scitariat  commentary  language  foreign-lang  democracy  gnon  🐸  mena4  land  critique  occident  unaffiliated  propaganda  authoritarianism  culture  kumbaya-kult  envy  identity-politics  culture-war  org:mag  right-wing  higher-ed  analogy  comparison  islam  britain  crime  lurid  criminology  org:med  polisci  developing-world  spreading  twitter  social  backup  pdf  egalitarianism-hierarchy  n-factor  alien-character  wiki  reference  google  drama  gender-diff  society  rot  social-structure  incentives  time-preference  values  cultural-dynamics  tradition  ratty  aphorism  patience  anthropology  history  mostly-modern  cold-war  zeitgeist  profile  longform  interview  barons  musk  tech  openai  ai  prediction  sex  sexuality  nationalism-globalism  discussion  ec 
may 2017 by nhaliday
Is Economic Activity Really “Distributed Less Evenly” Than It Used To Be?
http://xenocrypt.github.io/CountyIncomeHistory.html

First, imagine if you had a bar chart with every county in the United States sorted from lowest to highest by wages per capita, with the width of each bar proportional to the population of the county.

In fact, whenever anyone talks about “clustering” and “even distributions”, they’re mostly really talking about ways of comparing monotonic curves with integral one, whether they realize it or not.
org:med  wonkish  unaffiliated  debate  critique  trends  economics  commentary  douthatish  urban  distribution  inequality  polarization  malaise  regularizer  clarity  usa  history  mostly-modern  data  analysis  spock  nitty-gritty  compensation  vague  data-science  visual-understanding  🎩  thinking  plots  ssc  multi  tools  dynamic  money  class  class-warfare  left-wing  time-series  density  realness  geography  urban-rural  grokkability-clarity 
may 2017 by nhaliday
The Most Important Free Speech Question Is: Who Decides? | Mother Jones
Speech is often harmful. And vicious. And hurtful. And racist. And just plain disgusting. But whenever you start thinking these are good reasons to overturn—by violence or otherwise—someone's invitation to speak, ask yourself this: Who decides? Because once you concede the right to keep people from speaking, you concede the right of somebody to make that decision. And that somebody may eventually decide to shut down communists. Or anti-war protesters. Or gays. Or _sociobiologists_ [?]. Or Jews who defend Israel. Or Muslims.

https://medium.com/@freddiedeboer/theres-no-pro-campus-censorship-theory-for-me-to-debate-8c26d1b14cf8
https://medium.com/@freddiedeboer/what-replaces-rights-and-discourse-77fd7dcc3f3d
yes, campus activists have attempted to censor completely mainstream views: https://fredrikdeboer.com/2017/07/27/yes-campus-activists-have-attempted-to-censor-completely-mainstream-views/

FREE SPEECH IS NOT VIOLATED AT WELLESLEY: https://web-beta.archive.org/web/20170414124916/http://thewellesleynews.com/2017/04/12/free-speech-is-not-violated-at-wellesley/
How Race-Obsessed Oxford Group Reacted When Heat Street Exposed It: http://www.educationviews.org/race-obsessed-oxford-group-reacted-heat-street-exposed/
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/answer-sheet/wp/2016/12/28/64-demands-by-u-md-student-coalition-include-prayer-rooms-in-every-major-building-shuttles-to-muslim-center/

Planet of Cops: https://medium.com/@freddiedeboer/planet-of-cops-8917cfc01fc9
I’m fed up with political correctness, and the idea that everyone should already be perfect: https://qz.com/335941/im-fed-up-with-political-correctness-and-the-idea-that-everyone-should-already-be-perfect/
I have seen, with my own two eyes, a 33-year-old Hispanic man, an Iraq war veteran who had served three tours and had become an outspoken critic of our presence there, be lectured about patriarchy by an affluent 22-year-old white liberal arts college student, because he had said that other vets have to “man up” and speak out about the war. Because apparently we have to pretend that we don’t know how metaphorical language works or else we’re bad people. I watched his eyes glaze over as this woman with $300 shoes berated him. I saw that. Myself.
https://twitter.com/LokiJulianus/status/826099008531726336
the IDEOLOGICAL effects of normal white guys abandoning leftism due to idpol: an insanity ratchet--lefties can't stop saying stupid stuff
https://fredrikdeboer.com/2017/08/20/personal-news/

https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2017/09/the-rise-of-the-violent-left/534192/

https://twitter.com/ortoiseortoise/status/911011232794243073
https://archive.is/aV4vj
https://archive.is/IUG0d
https://archive.is/JmCHJ
https://archive.is/fG73e
i am at the shitlord's speech. very full room, overflow outside. definitely some sort of "opposition" present
...
i'm very struck by the observation that people who think America is an awful place to be also think it's a huge privilege to be here.
...
a guy says that immigrants rape because they're coming into communities with robust rape cultures. audience isn't really buying it.
...
we get a woman who denies that Coptic Christians are targeted in Egypt. the liberal student organizer gently corrects her. she sits down.
...
the "conversation is oppressive" woman has spoken for ten minutes. now asks whether Brock Turner means we should deport white people.
shitlord responds, "well, you know white people statistically commit less rape, right?" the audience CANNOT believe this is true. more exits
Twitter is real life now. woman in front of me yells again. "WHERE are you getting your statistics?" "Department of Justice." people SCREAM

Take Back the Ivory Tower: http://www.chronicle.com/article/Take-Back-the-Ivory-Tower/241304
- Alice Dreger
Democracy depends on having a public capable of thinking
As we find ourselves caught in this system that is increasingly about corporate mission and financial empire-building, the collapse of job security and the requirement to bring in the money are changing how we function as scholars, teachers, and administrators. What does it mean that we all know we’re now working in places where misconduct by researchers and coaches is judged not by its awfulness, but by how the university’s bottom line might best be protected? This is all kind of gross, no?

...

Let us require our students to read difficult work and learn to respond to uncomfortable chalk by chalking back. Teach them histories of censorship and blacklisting on the right and the left. Require them to reflect upon their (and our) uncertainty. Teach reliable methodologies, not infallible ideologies. Let us always be implicitly asking what one graduate professor explicitly asked me when I was being an intellectually recalcitrant pig: If you haven’t changed your mind lately, how do you know it’s working?

And let us do what many of us as scholars, in the rush to succeed, haven’t been doing very well: Let us fact-check our own work before we publish it. Resist tribalism. Punish one another only for the mortal sin of making crap up. Not confuse what is fundable with what is valuable. And consider wearing our robes and our hoods more proudly more often, to remind ourselves that, while we all are complex tangles of minds, selves, and cultures, we may also as academics rise to be part of something quite profound and very, very good.

Anger as Oxford college bans Christian group from freshers' fair: https://www.theguardian.com/education/2017/oct/09/anger-as-oxford-college-bans-christian-group-from-freshers-fair
According to the paper, he added: “Christianity’s influence on many marginalised communities has been damaging in its methods of conversion and rules of practice, and is still used in many places as an excuse for homophobia and certain forms of neo-colonialism.”
news  org:mag  left-wing  politics  culture-war  civil-liberty  higher-ed  current-events  commentary  critique  exit-voice  multi  org:med  unaffiliated  identity-politics  westminster  censorship  links  rhetoric  trends  ideology  authoritarianism  peace-violence  order-disorder  twitter  social  discussion  gnon  🐸  coalitions  tactics  org:lite  gender  drama  backup  clown-world  internet  britain  lurid  org:rec  islam  usa  wtf  patho-altruism  stories  migration  race  crime  criminology  MENA  religion  christianity  terrorism  org:edu  journos-pundits  democracy  polarization  humility  technocracy  truth  institutions  org:anglo  conquest-empire  sex  sexuality  orwellian 
april 2017 by nhaliday
Born Red - The New Yorker
Obama-Xi State Visit: How China's President Defines the Chinese Dream: https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2015/09/xi-jinping-china-book-chinese-dream/406387/
interesting glimpse into Chinese cultural overtones

What’s new on Xi Jinping’s bookshelf this year: https://medium.com/shanghaiist/whats-new-on-xi-jinping-s-bookshelf-this-year-8d913dcc261f

China Moves to Let Xi Stay in Power by Abolishing Term Limit: https://www.nytimes.com/2018/02/25/world/asia/china-xi-jinping.html
news  org:mag  profile  china  asia  politics  government  foreign-policy  authoritarianism  sinosphere  history  mostly-modern  corruption  expansionism  usa  ideology  orient  statesmen  civil-liberty  democracy  obama  leadership  egalitarianism-hierarchy  kinship  communism  cold-war  elite  power  class  class-warfare  organizing  markets  capitalism  noble-lie  anomie  morality  multi  culture  polisci  civilization  expression-survival  individualism-collectivism  diversity  books  review  summary  facebook  barons  current-events  nationalism-globalism  ethnocentrism  identity-politics  great-powers  n-factor  alien-character  org:med  trends  list  speedometer  technology  ai  deep-learning  polanyi-marx  europe  the-great-west-whale  literature  big-peeps  the-classics  military  defense  letters  economics  broad-econ  environment  technocracy  org:rec 
april 2017 by nhaliday
The End of the Past | Notes On Liberty
The phenomenon coined by Fernand Braudel, the “Betrayal of the Bourgeois,” was particularly powerful in ancient Rome. Great merchants flourished, but “in order to be truly valued, they eventually had to become rentiers, as Cicero affirmed without hesitation: ‘Nay, it even seems to deserve the highest respect, if those who are engaged in it [trade], satiated, or rather , I should say, satisfied with the fortunes they have made, make their way from port to a country estate, as they have often made it from the sea into port. But of all the occupations by which gain is secured, none is better than agriculture, none more delightful, none more becoming to a freeman’” (Schiavone, 2000, 103).

Such a cultural argument fits perfectly with Deirdre McCloskey’s claim in her recent trilogy that it was the adoption of bourgeois cultural norms and specifically bourgeois rhetoric that distinguished and caused the rise of north-western Europe after 1650 (here, here, and here).

Could Rome Have Had an Industrial Revolution?: https://medium.com/@MarkKoyama/could-rome-have-had-an-industrial-revolution-4126717370a2
This question is prompted by Kingdom of the Wicked, a new book by Helen Dale. Dale forces us to consider Jesus as a religious extremist in a Roman world not unlike our own. The novel throws new light on our own attitudes to terrorism, globalization, torture, and the clash of cultures. It is highly recommended.
Indirectly, however, Dale also addresses the possibility of sustained economic growth in the ancient world. The novel is set in a 1st century Roman empire during the governorship of Pontus Pilate and the reign of Tiberius. But in this alternative history, the Mediterranean world has experienced a series of technical innovations following the survival of Archimedes at the siege of Syracuse, which have led to rapid economic growth. As Dale explains in the book’s excellent afterword (published separately here), if Rome had experienced an industrial revolution, it would likely have differed from the actual one; and she briefly plots a path to Roman industrialization. All of this is highly stimulating and has prompted me to speculate further about whether Rome could have experienced modern economic growth and if Dale’s proposed path towards a Roman Industrial Revolution is plausible.

...

This assessment is bold but consistent with the recent findings of archaeologists who continue to uncover evidence of dense trading networks and widespread ownership of industrially produced consumption goods across the empire.

...

From this wealth of evidence, we know that the classical world experienced what Jack Goldstone has called a “growth efflorescence”.
But at even the Roman empire at its peak in the reign of Marcus Aurelius does not appear to have been on the verge of modern economic growth. Rome lacked some of the crucial characteristics of Britain on the eve of the Industrial Revolution. There was no culture of invention and discovery, no large population of skilled tinkerers or machine builders, and no evidence of labor scarcity that might have driven the invention of labor-saving inventions.

Could the Ancients Have Had an Industrial Revolution?: http://adlows.com/2017/11/12/ancient-industrial-revolution/
I would suggest that what specifically was missing in the case of Rome was a ratchet. By that, I mean some way to lock in the gains of new inventions. Where both the Dutch and British had many social and commercial mechanisms to spread knowledge of new innovations, Roman technology stayed in use only so long as the state continued to fund it. There was no widely-diffused base of knowledge that was constantly passed on and modified, resilient enough to survive political upheavals.

To put this in perspective, consider how stunningly little of Rome’s engineering knowledge endured the collapse of the empire. Imperial authorities erected aqueducts and amphitheaters, and laced the land with a complex network of roads and bridges. Yet none of these feats of engineering ratcheted; all such knowledge was lost with the fall of Rome.

...

So for all the astonishing engineering feats of the Romans, they were unlikely to incubate an industrial revolution. Is there anyone in antiquity who could have? Perhaps: those notoriously metaphysical Greeks.

https://twitter.com/gcochran99/status/1155320128977813505
https://archive.is/9uPI6
https://archive.is/NJqia
https://archive.is/zzm0r
https://archive.is/nuDJ6
https://archive.is/CPPP9

Classical antiquity was a low point of human intelligence: https://evoandproud.blogspot.com/2019/08/classical-antiquity-was-low-point-of.html
econotariat  history  economics  growth-econ  iron-age  mediterranean  europe  early-modern  comparison  the-classics  innovation  roots  capitalism  the-great-west-whale  industrial-revolution  coordination  counterfactual  culture  society  values  divergence  broad-econ  revolution  rent-seeking  social-norms  🎩  gibbon  chart  leviathan  cultural-dynamics  zeitgeist  wealth-of-nations  great-powers  mokyr-allen-mccloskey  modernity  political-econ  microfoundations  technology  cjones-like  reason  multi  fiction  scifi-fantasy  gedanken  org:med  britain  gallic  labor  supply-demand  incentives  trade  status  law  property-rights  institutions  markets  conquest-empire  inequality  egalitarianism-hierarchy  knowledge  volo-avolo  decentralized  military  war  darwinian  competition  speculation  science  the-trenches  pseudoE  hari-seldon  cycles  whiggish-hegelian  flux-stasis  malthus  gnosis-logos  eden-heaven  west-hunter  scitariat  backup  twitter  social  discussion  explanans  islam  MENA  pop-diff  iq  aDNA  the-bones  network-structure  density  demographics  fer 
april 2017 by nhaliday
Annotating Greg Cochran’s interview with James Miller
https://westhunt.wordpress.com/2017/04/05/interview-2/
opinion of Scott and Hanson: https://westhunt.wordpress.com/2017/04/05/interview-2/#comment-90238
Greg's methodist: https://westhunt.wordpress.com/2017/04/05/interview-2/#comment-90256
https://westhunt.wordpress.com/2017/04/05/interview-2/#comment-90299
You have to consider the relative strengths of Japan and the USA. USA was ~10x stronger, industrially, which is what mattered. Technically superior (radar, Manhattan project). Almost entirely self-sufficient in natural resources. Japan was sure to lose, and too crazy to quit, which meant that they would lose after being smashed flat.
--
There’s a fairly common way of looking at things in which the bad guys are not at fault because they’re bad guys, born that way, and thus can’t help it. Well, we can’t help it either, so the hell with them. I don’t think we had to respect Japan’s innate need to fuck everybody in China to death.

https://westhunt.wordpress.com/2017/03/25/ramble-on/
https://westhunt.wordpress.com/2017/03/24/topics/
https://soundcloud.com/user-519115521/greg-cochran-part-1
2nd part: https://pinboard.in/u:nhaliday/b:9ab84243b967

some additional things:
- political correctness, the Cathedral and the left (personnel continuity but not ideology/value) at start
- joke: KT impact = asteroid mining, every mass extinction = intelligent life destroying itself
- Alawites: not really Muslim, women liberated because "they don't have souls", ended up running shit in Syria because they were only ones that wanted to help the British during colonial era
- solution to Syria: "put the Alawites in NYC"
- Zimbabwe was OK for a while, if South Africa goes sour, just "put the Boers in NYC" (Miller: left would probably say they are "culturally incompatible", lol)
- story about Lincoln and his great-great-great-grandfather
- skepticism of free speech
- free speech, authoritarianism, and defending against the Mongols
- Scott crazy (not in a terrible way), LW crazy (genetics), ex.: polyamory
- TFP or microbio are better investments than stereotypical EA stuff
- just ban AI worldwide (bully other countries to enforce)
- bit of a back-and-forth about macroeconomics
- not sure climate change will be huge issue. world's been much warmer before and still had a lot of mammals, etc.
- he quite likes Pseudoerasmus
- shits on modern conservatism/Bret Stephens a bit

- mentions Japan having industrial base a tenth the size of the US's and no chance of winning WW2 around 11m mark
- describes himself as "fairly religious" around 20m mark
- 27m30s: Eisenhower was smart, read Carlyle, classical history, etc.

but was Nixon smarter?: https://www.gnxp.com/WordPress/2019/03/18/open-thread-03-18-2019/
The Scandals of Meritocracy. Virtue vs. competence. Would you rather have a boss who is evil but competent, or good but incompetent? The reality is you have to balance the two. Richard Nixon was probably smarter that Dwight Eisenhower in raw g, but Eisenhower was probably a better person.
org:med  west-hunter  scitariat  summary  links  podcast  audio  big-picture  westminster  politics  culture-war  academia  left-wing  ideology  biodet  error  crooked  bounded-cognition  stories  history  early-modern  africa  developing-world  death  mostly-modern  deterrence  japan  asia  war  meta:war  risk  ai  climate-change  speculation  agriculture  environment  prediction  religion  islam  iraq-syria  gender  dominant-minority  labor  econotariat  cracker-econ  coalitions  infrastructure  parasites-microbiome  medicine  low-hanging  biotech  terrorism  civil-liberty  civic  social-science  randy-ayndy  law  polisci  government  egalitarianism-hierarchy  expression-survival  disease  commentary  authoritarianism  being-right  europe  nordic  cohesion  heuristic  anglosphere  revolution  the-south  usa  thinking  info-dynamics  yvain  ssc  lesswrong  ratty  subculture  values  descriptive  epistemic  cost-disease  effective-altruism  charity  econ-productivity  technology  rhetoric  metameta  ai-control  critique  sociology  arms  paying-rent  parsimony  writing  realness  migration  eco 
april 2017 by nhaliday
No easy answers: why left-wing economics is not the answer to right-wing populism - Vox
hence why Cato loves mass migration
https://medium.com/@MattBruenig/liberals-and-diversity-85c169580d14
jfc, by the book: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ORWM0ukT-Xw
"If we broke up the big banks tomorrow would that end racism? Would that end sexism? Would that end discrimination against the LGBT community? Would that make people feel more welcoming to immigrants overnight?"
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/post-politics/wp/2016/02/13/clinton-in-nevada-not-everything-is-about-an-economic-theory/

The End of Liberalism - Samuel Bowles: https://www.bostonglobe.com/opinion/2017/06/19/the-end-liberalism/GLVtC7fExhFPwhOx31fXrN/story.html
The progressive's immigration dilemma: https://www.adamsmith.org/blog/international/the-progressives-immigration-dilemma
Poor people's lives are made enormously better off by moving from poor countries to rich countries. Thanks to remittances, migrants also may have a significant positive impact on their home countries. For any progressive who wants to improve human welfare, facilitating more immigration from poor to rich countries should be an overriding priority.

Not only does a big welfare state reduce the number of immigrants that are politically accepted, a heavily regulated labour market seems to be associated with immigrants having a worse impact on natives. Even policies that seem like they would be good for Britons might still do much more harm than good if they make Britons less willing to accept higher levels of immigration.

This is a serious dilemma for any progressive who wants all humans to live good lives, not just ones of the same race or nationality. It means that these political concerns alone may demand a low regulation, low redistribution state.

fucking traitors

https://twitter.com/tcjfs/status/882982045714194433
https://archive.is/o1gUM
Essential liberal values:
You: My countrymen get to speak, think, commerce, associate freely.
Vox: Here are some new countrymen. Enjoy!
news  org:data  org:lite  politics  polisci  wonkish  contrarianism  rhetoric  left-wing  populism  europe  usa  comparison  race  migrant-crisis  economics  redistribution  britain  government  policy  culture-war  westminster  data  counterfactual  values  tactics  coalitions  diversity  putnam-like  tradeoffs  sociology  stylized-facts  current-events  nationalism-globalism  social-capital  managerial-state  madisonian  chart  vampire-squid  welfare-state  identity-politics  class-warfare  microfoundations  multi  org:med  ideology  trump  commentary  video  social  clinton  nl-and-so-can-you  hypocrisy  correlation  crooked  the-bones  zeitgeist  rot  2016-election  postmortem  alesina  org:rec  econotariat  essay  albion  migration  clown-world  flexibility  labor  intervention  links  patho-altruism  article  org:ngo  org:anglo  us-them  kumbaya-kult  twitter  aphorism  gnon  unaffiliated  right-wing  lol  :/  realness  backup  public-goodish  org:local 
march 2017 by nhaliday
Mark Zuckerberg: Building Global Community | Hacker News
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=13670489
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=13666424
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=13668310
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=13678413
https://www.ft.com/content/b8bbd890-610a-11e7-8814-0ac7eb84e5f1
https://www.lrb.co.uk/v39/n16/john-lanchester/you-are-the-product
The view of human nature implied by these ideas is pretty dark. If all people want to do is go and look at other people so that they can compare themselves to them and copy what they want – if that is the final, deepest truth about humanity and its motivations – then Facebook doesn’t really have to take too much trouble over humanity’s welfare, since all the bad things that happen to us are things we are doing to ourselves. For all the corporate uplift of its mission statement, Facebook is a company whose essential premise is misanthropic. It is perhaps for that reason that Facebook, more than any other company of its size, has a thread of malignity running through its story. The high-profile, tabloid version of this has come in the form of incidents such as the live-streaming of rapes, suicides, murders and cop-killings. But this is one of the areas where Facebook seems to me relatively blameless. People live-stream these terrible things over the site because it has the biggest audience; if Snapchat or Periscope were bigger, they’d be doing it there instead.
https://archive.is/4SSUQ
This isnt about whether 'dangerous' speech should be suppressed, but whether to validate tech industry's selfconception as educators of man.
hn  commentary  facebook  barons  internet  community  society  civic  diversity  media  multi  news  org:mag  org:biz  rhetoric  privacy  civil-liberty  org:med  announcement  technocracy  managerial-state  universalism-particularism  nationalism-globalism  vampire-squid  kumbaya-kult  org:rec  org:anglo  letters  books  review  critique  rant  backup  twitter  social  discussion  gnon  🐸  envy  thiel  duplication  utopia-dystopia 
february 2017 by nhaliday
Information Processing: Boom, Bust, and the Global Race for Scientific Talent
Falling Behind? is a recent (March 2014) book by Michael Teitelbaum of the Sloan Foundation, a demographer and long time critic of STEM (Science, Technology, Engineering and Mathematics) shortage claims. Falling Behind? is an excellent book with a wealth of data and information on the history of booms and busts in science and engineering employment since World War II, STEM shortage claims in general, and lobbying for “high-skilled” immigration “reform”. Although I have been a student of these issues for many years, I encountered many facts and insights that I did not know or had not thought of. Nonetheless the book has a number of weakenesses which readers should keep in mind.

... The evidence assembled in this book leads inescapably to three core findings:

o First, that the alarms about widespread shortages or shortfalls in the number of U.S. scientists and engineers are quite inconsistent with nearly all available evidence;

o Second, that similar claims of the past were politically successful but resulted in a series of booms and busts that did harm to the U.S. science and engineering enterprise and made careers in these fields increasingly unattractive; and

o Third, that the clear signs of malaise in the U.S. science and engineering workforce are structural in origin and cannot be cured simply by providing additional funding. To the contrary, recent efforts of this kind have proved to be destabilizing, and advocates should be careful what they wish for. ...

https://blogs.wsj.com/cio/2016/08/12/is-there-a-stem-crisis-or-a-stem-surplus/
- “In the academic job market, there is no noticeable shortage in any discipline. In fact, there are signs of an oversupply of Ph.D.’s vying for tenure-track faculty positions in many disciplines (e.g., biomedical sciences, physical sciences).”
- “In the government and government-related job sector, certain STEM disciplines have a shortage of positions at the Ph.D. level (e.g., materials science engineering, nuclear engineering) and in general (e.g., systems engineers, cybersecurity, and intelligence professionals) due to the U.S. citizenship requirement. In contrast, an oversupply of biomedical engineers is seen at the Ph.D. level, and there are transient shortages of electrical engineers and mechanical engineers at advanced-degree levels.”
- “In the private sector, software developers, petroleum engineers, data scientists, and those in skilled trades are in high demand; there is an abundant supply of biomedical, chemistry, and physics Ph.D.’s; and transient shortages and surpluses of electrical engineers occur from time to time.”

The STEM Crisis is a Myth: An Ongoing Discussion: http://spectrum.ieee.org/static/the-stem-crisis-is-a-myth-an-ongoing-discussion
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=6305671

STEM: Still No Shortage: https://medium.com/i-m-h-o/stem-still-no-shortage-c6f6eed505c1
- Freddie deBoer
https://www.wsj.com/articles/where-college-seniors-are-falling-short-1493118000

Where the STEM Jobs Are (and Where They Aren’t): https://www.nytimes.com/2017/11/01/education/edlife/stem-jobs-industry-careers.html
The number of graduates with technical majors (shown: bachelor, master and Ph.D. degrees awarded in 2015-16) tends to outpace job openings (shown: 2014-24 projections, annualized). Computer science is the exception.

https://twitter.com/EricRWeinstein/status/1167968089180213248
https://archive.is/hlWLY
I don’t think anyone is prepared for how far off of reality the Higher-Ed/STEM/High-Tech/Immigration story is. Even Bannon.

This is arguably the steepest pyramid scheme in the US & in the strategic sector that can least afford it. Yet it has ZERO to do with merit or xenophobia.
As such it is defended by a single mega lie of such size that no one can afford to rethink it. Myself included. It‘s a lie that has defined who we are for 50 years. I’m 53 and know nothing other than the lie. And the lie plays on the best parts of our American soul & narrative.
Work backwards. You‘ll see that perhaps the top 5-10 and not the top 100 universities should be training most all PhDs. Administrators should be fired. Tuition slashed. Strategic rivals barred from our labs. Diversity decreased or addressed *radically* earlier. Debt forgiven.
More students discouraged from four year college and into higher stability occupations. Massive salaries paid in fields that could restart growth. Transparency and accountability decreased for researcher and jacked up for administrations. Sports scholarships and legacies removed.
It’s so crazy what we need to do, that it‘s just easier to call anyone who dares rethink it an elitist or a xenophobe or an idiot or a pessimist or a nationalist. So I’m obviously going to be called all those things. As I was when I talked about mortgage backed securities in ‘02.
hsu  scitariat  books  review  science  supply-demand  academia  phd  labor  cycles  quotes  malaise  rot  multi  career  planning  data  trends  macro  economics  org:rec  working-stiff  links  tech  sv  grad-school  compensation  long-term  uncertainty  news  org:sci  progression  wonkish  commentary  hn  hmm  org:med  unaffiliated  left-wing  education  higher-ed  regularizer  arbitrage  innovation  visualization  scale  human-capital  chart  twitter  social  discussion  speculation  rhetoric  contrarianism  policy  nascent-state  winner-take-all  science-anxiety 
january 2017 by nhaliday
The Mythological Machinations of The Compensation/Productivity Gap – New River Investments – Medium
We in fact find that the surplus productivity growth that did not flow to the corporate sector, or even to the very rich, but in fact flowed to the very poor.

https://twitter.com/pseudoerasmus/status/852585347980636160
@PatrickIber an old chestnut. statistical illusion. wages deflated by CPI. productivity/output deflated by PPI or output deflator

pseudoerasmus: "would have voted for Bernie were I an american"
org:med  data  analysis  contrarianism  econ-productivity  economics  trends  macro  supply-demand  compensation  distribution  inequality  winner-take-all  malaise  regularizer  money  stagnation  multi  econotariat  pseudoE  broad-econ  twitter  social  commentary  discussion  debate  critique  growth-econ  econometrics  econ-metrics  history  mostly-modern  labor  intricacy  clarity  politics  2016-election  piketty  stylized-facts  vampire-squid  gotchas  time-series  grokkability-clarity 
january 2017 by nhaliday
States and economic growth: Capacity and constraints
State Capacity and the Rise of the Modern Nation State with Mark Koyama: http://economicsdetective.com/2017/06/state-capacity-rise-modern-nation-state-mark-koyama/
skeptical: https://twitter.com/pseudoerasmus/status/669916504213733377

https://medium.com/@MarkKoyama/geopolitics-and-asias-little-divergence-e5a103eb0d9b
Why did Japan successfully modernize in the 19th century while China failed to do so? Both China and Japan came under increasing threat from the Western powers after 1850. In response, Japan successfully undertook a program of state building and modernization; in China, however, attempts to modernize proved unsuccessful and the power of the central state was fatally weakened. The failure to build a modern state led to China’s so-called lost century while Japan’s success enabled it to become the first non-western country to industrialize. In a paper with Chiaki Moriguchi (Hitotsubashi University) and Tuan-Hwee Sng (NUS), we explore this question using a combination of historical evidence and formal modeling.

https://pseudoerasmus.com/2014/12/08/china-japan-divergence/
Why China did not industrialise before Western Europe may be a tantalising and irresistible subject, but frankly it’s a parlour game. What remains underexplored, however, is the more tractable issue of why Japan managed, but China failed, to initiate an early transition to modern growth and convergence with the West. A recent paper argues that the gap in state capacity between Qing China and Tokugawa Japan was responsible for the divergence. [Edit: Please note, this blogpost disputes that argument.]

CHINA’S STATE DEVELOPMENT IN COMPARATIVE
HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVE: https://scholar.harvard.edu/files/yuhuawang/files/wang_2019_apsa-cp-newsletter.pdf
mix of some very interesting and good stuff, eg, Figure 2, w/ some dubious assertions (stemming from too much trust in blinkered fools)

compare claims about prevalence of war in Chinese and European history w/ Greg's claims here: https://pinboard.in/u:nhaliday/b:ffd5491a0302

could check out sources cited in this "Our World in Data" article to determine truth (but I lean toward Greg obv): https://pinboard.in/u:nhaliday/b:0e7b5f39770a
study  economics  econotariat  growth-econ  leviathan  asia  europe  survey  history  cliometrics  🎩  government  stylized-facts  order-disorder  gallic  the-great-west-whale  roots  polisci  piracy  wealth-of-nations  pdf  political-econ  multi  broad-econ  audio  podcast  interview  taxes  civilization  democracy  antidemos  anglosphere  britain  china  japan  sinosphere  institutions  divergence  modernity  microfoundations  twitter  social  pseudoE  discussion  track-record  north-weingast-like  org:med  article  summary  early-modern  incentives  geopolitics  world  comparison  coordination  decentralized  cultural-dynamics  iron-age  medieval  homo-hetero  industrial-revolution  scale  orient  world-war  pre-ww2  convergence  geography  let-me-see  data  visualization  time-series  spreading  time  sequential  measure  MENA  islam  monetary-fiscal  peace-violence  revolution  technocracy  within-without  aristos  elite  class  class-warfare  interests  kinship  individualism-collectivism  local-global  cooperate-defect  chart  explanans  war 
january 2017 by nhaliday
Timeline
Timeline is the first media company dedicated to connecting the dots between past and present. We believe that many people don’t understand the world we live in — not because they aren’t interested or don’t care, but because there’s no easy way to see how today’s news sits within the sweep of history.
org:med  organization  news  history  skunkworks  media  org:mag  time  sequential 
december 2016 by nhaliday
« earlier      
per page:    204080120160

bundles : pub

related tags

-_-  2016-election  :/  ability-competence  absolute-relative  abstraction  academia  accelerationism  acemoglu  acm  acmtariat  aDNA  adversarial  advertising  advice  aesthetics  africa  age-generation  age-of-discovery  aggregator  agri-mindset  agriculture  ai  ai-control  akrasia  albion  alesina  alien-character  alignment  allodium  alt-inst  altruism  american-nations  analogy  analysis  analytical-holistic  anarcho-tyranny  anglo  anglosphere  announcement  anomie  anthropic  anthropology  antidemos  antiquity  aphorism  api  app  apple  applicability-prereqs  applications  arbitrage  archaeology  archaics  architecture  aristos  arms  arrows  art  article  asia  assimilation  atmosphere  atoms  attaq  attention  audio  authoritarianism  automation  average-case  axelrod  axioms  backup  bangbang  barons  beauty  behavioral-econ  behavioral-gen  being-becoming  being-right  benchmarks  benevolence  best-practices  biases  big-peeps  big-picture  bio  biodet  bioinformatics  biophysical-econ  biotech  bitcoin  blockchain  blog  blowhards  books  bostrom  bots  bounded-cognition  brands  britain  broad-econ  browser  build-packaging  business  c(pp)  c:*  c:**  caching  calculator  california  canada  cancer  candidate-gene  canon  capital  capitalism  career  causation  censorship  charity  chart  cheatsheet  checking  checklists  china  christianity  civic  civil-liberty  civilization  cjones-like  clarity  class  class-warfare  clever-rats  client-server  climate-change  clinton  cliometrics  cloud  clown-world  coalitions  coarse-fine  cocktail  cocoa  code-dive  code-organizing  cog-psych  cohesion  cold-war  comics  commentary  communication  communism  community  comparison  compensation  competition  compilers  complement-substitute  complex-systems  composition-decomposition  computer-memory  concept  conceptual-vocab  concrete  concurrency  conference  config  confluence  confounding  conquest-empire  consumerism  context  contracts  contradiction  contrarianism  convergence  cool  cooperate-defect  coordination  core-rats  corporation  correctness  correlation  corruption  cost-benefit  cost-disease  counter-revolution  counterfactual  coupling-cohesion  courage  course  cracker-econ  cracker-prog  creative  crime  criminal-justice  criminology  CRISPR  critique  crooked  crosstab  crux  crypto  crypto-anarchy  cryptocurrency  cultural-dynamics  culture  culture-war  curiosity  current-events  cybernetics  cycles  cynicism-idealism  dark-arts  darwinian  data  data-science  data-structures  death  debate  debt  debugging  decentralized  decision-making  decision-theory  deep-learning  defense  definite-planning  degrees-of-freedom  democracy  demographic-transition  demographics  dennett  density  descriptive  design  desktop  detail-architecture  deterrence  developing-world  devtools  diogenes  direction  dirty-hands  discovery  discrimination  discussion  disease  distributed  distribution  divergence  diversity  diy  domestication  dominant-minority  dotnet  douthatish  drama  driving  drugs  DSL  duplication  duty  dynamic  dysgenics  early-modern  eastern-europe  ecology  econ-metrics  econ-productivity  econometrics  economics  econotariat  ecosystem  eden  eden-heaven  editors  education  EEA  effect-size  effective-altruism  efficiency  egalitarianism-hierarchy  EGT  eh  elections  elegance  elite  embedded-cognition  embodied  emergent  empirical  ems  endocrine  endogenous-exogenous  energy-resources  engineering  enhancement  enlightenment-renaissance-restoration-reformation  ensembles  entrepreneurialism  environment  envy  epistemic  equilibrium  erlang  error  error-handling  essay  ethanol  ethical-algorithms  ethics  ethnocentrism  ethnography  EU  europe  events  evolution  evopsych  examples  existence  exit-voice  expansionism  expert  expert-experience  explanans  explanation  exploratory  explore-exploit  expression-survival  externalities  extra-introversion  facebook  failure  fall-2016  faq  farmers-and-foragers  fashun  fermi  fertility  feudal  fiction  finance  fintech  flexibility  fluid  flux-stasis  food  foreign-lang  foreign-policy  form-design  formal-values  forum  frameworks  free-riding  french  frequency  frisson  frontend  frontier  functional  futurism  gallic  game-theory  games  garett-jones  gavisti  gedanken  gender  gender-diff  gene-drift  gene-flow  generalization  generative  genetic-correlation  genetic-load  genetics  genomics  geography  geopolitics  germanic  gibbon  git  glitch  gnon  gnosis-logos  gnxp  golang  google  gotchas  government  grad-school  gradient-descent  great-powers  gregory-clark  grokkability  grokkability-clarity  ground-up  group-selection  growth  growth-econ  grugq  GT-101  guide  guilt-shame  GWAS  gwern  habit  hacker  hanson  hard-core  hard-tech  hardware  hari-seldon  haskell  hate  hci  health  healthcare  heavy-industry  henrich  heterodox  heuristic  hi-order-bits  hidden-motives  high-variance  higher-ed  history  hmm  hn  homo-hetero  honor  houellebecq  housing  howto  hsu  huge-data-the-biggest  human-capital  human-ml  humanity  humility  huntington  hypocrisy  ide  ideas  identity-politics  ideology  idk  IEEE  illusion  immune  impact  impetus  incentives  increase-decrease  india  individualism-collectivism  industrial-org  industrial-revolution  inequality  inference  info-dynamics  info-econ  info-foraging  infographic  infrastructure  inhibition  init  innovation  insight  institutions  integration-extension  integrity  intel  intelligence  interests  interface  interface-compatibility  internet  interpretability  intervention  interview  interview-prep  intricacy  invariance  investing  ios  iq  iraq-syria  iron-age  is-ought  islam  israel  isteveish  iteration-recursion  janus  japan  jargon  javascript  journos-pundits  judaism  judgement  justice  jvm  kernels  kinship  knowledge  korea  krugman  kumbaya-kult  labor  land  language  larry-summers  latency-throughput  latin-america  law  leadership  learning  lee-kuan-yew  left-wing  legacy  legibility  len:long  len:short  lens  lesswrong  let-me-see  letters  leviathan  lexical  libraries  life-history  lifestyle  liner-notes  links  linux  lisp  list  literature  live-coding  lived-experience  lmao  local-global  logistics  lol  long-short-run  long-term  longevity  longform  low-hanging  lurid  machiavelli  machine-learning  macro  madisonian  maker  malaise  malthus  management  managerial-state  map-territory  maps  marginal  marginal-rev  market-failure  market-power  marketing  markets  martial  math  math.CO  matrix-factorization  maxim-gun  measure  measurement  mechanism-design  media  medicine  medieval  mediterranean  memes(ew)  memetics  memory-management  MENA  mena4  meta:medicine  meta:prediction  meta:reading  meta:rhetoric  meta:science  meta:war  metabuch  metal-to-virtual  metameta  methodology  metrics  micro  microbiz  microfoundations  microsoft  migrant-crisis  migration  military  minimalism  minimum-viable  miri-cfar  missing-heritability  mobile  mobility  model-class  models  modernity  mokyr-allen-mccloskey  moloch  monetary-fiscal  money  morality  mostly-modern  move-fast-(and-break-things)  multi  murray  music  musk  mutation  mystic  myth  n-factor  narrative  nascent-state  nationalism-globalism  natural-experiment  nature  near-far  neocons  network-structure  networking  neuro  neurons  news  nibble  nietzschean  nihil  nips  nitty-gritty  nl-and-so-can-you  no-go  noble-lie  noblesse-oblige  nordic  north-weingast-like  northeast  novelty  nuclear  null-result  number  obama  objektbuch  ocaml-sml  occident  offense-defense  old-anglo  oop  open-closed  openai  opsec  optimism  order-disorder  org:anglo  org:biz  org:bleg  org:com  org:data  org:econlib  org:edu  org:foreign  org:junk  org:lite  org:local  org:mag  org:med  org:ngo  org:popup  org:rec  org:sci  organization  organizing  orient  orwellian  os  oscillation  oss  osx  other-xtian  p:null  p:whenever  parable  paradox  parallax  parasites-microbiome  parenting  pareto  parsimony  path-dependence  patho-altruism  patience  paul-romer  paulg  paying-rent  pdf  peace-violence  pennsylvania  people  performance  personal-finance  personality  persuasion  pessimism  pharma  phd  philosophy  pic  piketty  pinker  piracy  planning  plots  pls  plt  poast  podcast  poetry  polanyi-marx  polarization  policy  polis  polisci  political-econ  politics  poll  pop-diff  pop-structure  population  population-genetics  populism  postmortem  power  practice  pragmatic  pre-ww2  prediction  prediction-markets  preference-falsification  prejudice  preprint  presentation  privacy  pro-rata  problem-solving  product-management  productivity  profile  programming  progression  project  propaganda  property-rights  proposal  protestant-catholic  protocol-metadata  prudence  pseudoE  psychiatry  psycho-atoms  psychology  psychometrics  public-goodish  putnam-like  python  q-n-a  qra  QTL  quality  quantified-self  quantum  quantum-info  questions  quixotic  quora  quotes  race  random  randy-ayndy  ranking  rant  rat-pack  rationality  ratty  reading  realness  realpolitik  reason  recent-selection  recommendations  red-queen  reddit  redistribution  reduction  reference  reflection  regression  regression-to-mean  regularizer  regulation  reinforcement  religion  rent-seeking  replication  repo  research  research-program  responsibility  retention  retrofit  review  revolution  rhetoric  right-wing  rigidity  risk  robotics  robust  rock  roots  rot  russia  rust  s-factor  s:*  s:***  safety  sample-complexity  sampling-bias  sanctity-degradation  sapiens  satire  scale  scaling-tech  schelling  sci-comp  science  science-anxiety  scifi-fantasy  scitariat  securities  security  selection  self-interest  selfish-gene  sequential  sex  sexuality  shift  shipping  SIGGRAPH  signaling  similarity  simplification-normalization  singularity  sinosphere  skeleton  skunkworks  sky  slides  slippery-slope  smart-contracts  social  social-capital  social-choice  social-norms  social-psych  social-science  social-structure  sociality  society  sociology  socs-and-mops  software  solzhenitsyn  space  spearhead  speculation  speedometer  spock  spreading  ssc  stackex  stagnation  startups  state  state-of-art  statesmen  stats  status  stereotypes  stock-flow  stories  strategy  straussian  stream  street-fighting  stress  strings  stripe  structure  study  studying  stylized-facts  subculture  sulla  summary  supply-demand  survey  sv  synchrony  syntax  system-design  systematic-ad-hoc  systems  tactics  taxes  tech  tech-infrastructure  technical-writing  technocracy  technology  techtariat  telos-atelos  temperance  temperature  tensors  terrorism  the-basilisk  the-bones  the-classics  the-devil  the-founding  the-great-west-whale  the-monster  the-south  the-trenches  the-watchers  the-world-is-just-atoms  theory-of-mind  theory-practice  theos  thiel  things  thinking  threat-modeling  time  time-preference  time-series  time-use  tip-of-tongue  tools  top-n  toxoplasmosis  toys  traces  track-record  trade  tradecraft  tradeoffs  tradition  transitions  transportation  travel  trees  trends  tribalism  tricks  trivia  troll  trump  trust  truth  turchin  tutorial  tv  twitter  types  ubiquity  ui  unaffiliated  uncertainty  unintended-consequences  universalism-particularism  unix  unsupervised  urban  urban-rural  urbit  us-them  usa  utopia-dystopia  ux  vague  values  vampire-squid  vcs  venture  video  virginia-DC  virtu  visual-understanding  visualization  vitality  volo-avolo  vr  vulgar  walls  walter-scheidel  war  washington  water  wealth  wealth-of-nations  web  weird  welfare-state  west-hunter  westminster  whiggish-hegelian  white-paper  wiki  wild-ideas  winner-take-all  wire-guided  wisdom  within-group  within-without  wonkish  workflow  working-stiff  world  world-war  worrydream  worse-is-better/the-right-thing  writing  wtf  wut  X-not-about-Y  yak-shaving  yarvin  yc  yvain  zeitgeist  zero-positive-sum  🌞  🎩  🐸  👽  🔬  🖥  🤖  🦉 

Copy this bookmark:



description:


tags: