nhaliday + null-result   84

Education and Political Participation: Exploring the Causal Link | SpringerLink
To test for a causal effect of education, we exploit the rise in education levels among males induced by the Vietnam draft. We find little reliable evidence that education induced by the draft significantly increases participation rates.
study  politics  polisci  education  human-capital  correlation  confounding  endogenous-exogenous  natural-experiment  null-result  military  war  history  mostly-modern  cold-war  asia  developing-world  sociology  phalanges  stylized-facts 
december 2017 by nhaliday
Stretching and injury prevention: an obscure relationship. - PubMed - NCBI
Sports involving bouncing and jumping activities with a high intensity of stretch-shortening cycles (SSCs) [e.g. soccer and football] require a muscle-tendon unit that is compliant enough to store and release the high amount of elastic energy that benefits performance in such sports. If the participants of these sports have an insufficient compliant muscle-tendon unit, the demands in energy absorption and release may rapidly exceed the capacity of the muscle-tendon unit. This may lead to an increased risk for injury of this structure. Consequently, the rationale for injury prevention in these sports is to increase the compliance of the muscle-tendon unit. Recent studies have shown that stretching programmes can significantly influence the viscosity of the tendon and make it significantly more compliant, and when a sport demands SSCs of high intensity, stretching may be important for injury prevention. This conjecture is in agreement with the available scientific clinical evidence from these types of sports activities. In contrast, when the type of sports activity contains low-intensity, or limited SSCs (e.g. jogging, cycling and swimming) there is no need for a very compliant muscle-tendon unit since most of its power generation is a consequence of active (contractile) muscle work that needs to be directly transferred (by the tendon) to the articular system to generate motion. Therefore, stretching (and thus making the tendon more compliant) may not be advantageous. This conjecture is supported by the literature, where strong evidence exists that stretching has no beneficial effect on injury prevention in these sports.
study  survey  health  embodied  fitness  fitsci  biomechanics  sports  soccer  running  endurance  evidence-based  null-result  realness  contrarianism  homo-hetero  comparison  embodied-pack 
november 2017 by nhaliday
Do High School Sports Build or Reveal Character?
We examine the extent to which participation in high school athletics has beneficial effects on future education, labor market, and health outcomes. Due to the absence of plausible instruments in observational data, we use recently developed methods that relate selection on observables with selection on unobservables to estimate bounds on the causal effect of athletics participation. We analyze these effects in the US separately for men and women using three different nationally representative longitudinal data sets that each link high school athletics participation with later-life outcomes. We do not find consistent evidence of individual benefits reported in many previous studies – once we have accounted for selection, high school athletes are no more likely to attend college, earn higher wages, or participate in the labor force. However, we do find that men (but not women) who participated in high school athletics are more likely to exercise regularly as adults. Nevertheless, athletes are no less likely to be obese.
pdf  study  broad-econ  economics  econometrics  microfoundations  human-capital  sports  intervention  null-result  wonkish  endo-exo  selection  confounding  labor  education  health  fitness  fitsci  org:ngo  white-paper  methodology  compensation  cost-benefit  input-output  endogenous-exogenous  branches 
november 2017 by nhaliday
1 Genetics and Crime
The broader construct of antisocial behavior – which includes criminal offending, as well as aggression – also shows substantial genetic influence. In a meta-analysis combining effect sizes in 51 twin and adoption studies, Rhee and Waldman (2002) reported a heritability estimate of 41 per cent, with the remaining 59 per cent of variance being due to environmental factors. Interestingly, when comparing results for various definitions of antisocial behavior, only criminal offending appeared to be influenced by both additive genetic effects and non-additive genetic effects – possibly due to genetic dominance and epistatic interactions between genes – based on a pattern of results whereby, on average, identical (monozygotic) twin correlations are more than twice the value of fraternal (dizygotic) twin correlations, and also that biological parent–offspring correlations are less than fraternal twin correlations. Such non-additive genetic effects could arise if one or more high risk alleles act in a recessive fashion, or if certain alleles at one locus affect gene expression at other loci (epistasis).

One intriguing aspect of the literature on genetics and crime is that the strong and consistent genetic influence seen for property offending does not hold true for violent criminal convictions. None of the major adoption studies in Scandinavia or the United States found any elevated risk for violent convictions as a function of either biological or adoptive parent criminal offending, although one early twin study did find greater identical (monozygotic) than fraternal (dizygotic) concordance for violent convictions (see Cloninger and Gottesman, 1987). This pattern of twin, but not parent-offspring, similarity for violent criminal behavior suggests the possibility of non-additive genetic effects due to dominance or epistasis, which would result in increased resemblance for siblings (and twins), but not for parents and offspring. Thus, there may be genetic risk for violent crimes such as murder and rape, which may stem from rare recessive genes, or specific combinations of alleles that do not appear in studies of vertical transmission across generations.

A Swedish national twin study of criminal behavior and its violent, white-collar and property subtypes: https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/psychological-medicine/article/a-swedish-national-twin-study-of-criminal-behavior-and-its-violent-white-collar-and-property-subtypes/0D9A88185ED0FD5525A5EBD5D2EBA117
For all criminal convictions, heritability was estimated at around 45% in both sexes, with the shared environment accounting for 18% of the variance in liability in females and 27% in males. The correlation of these risk factors across sexes was estimated at +0.63. In men, the magnitudes of genetic and environmental influence were similar in the three criminal conviction subtypes. However, for violent and white-collar convictions, nearly half and one-third of the genetic effects were respectively unique to that criminal subtype. About half of the familial environmental effects were unique to property convictions.

Heritability, Assortative Mating and Gender Differences in Violent Crime: Results from a Total Population Sample Using Twin, Adoption, and Sibling Models: https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10519-011-9483-0
Using 36k twins, violent crime was moderately heritable (~ 55%) w/ 13% shared environment influence. Using 1.5 mil siblings, heritability was higher for males, & family environment higher for females. Moderate assortative mating for violent crime (r = .4).

The impact of neighbourhood deprivation on adolescent violent criminality and substance misuse: A longitudinal, quasi-experimental study of the total Swedish population: https://academic.oup.com/ije/article/42/4/1057/656274/The-impact-of-neighbourhood-deprivation-on
In the crude model, an increase of 1 SD in neighbourhood deprivation was associated with a 57% increase in the odds of being convicted of a violent crime (95% CI 52%–63%). The effect was greatly attenuated when adjustment was made for a number of observed confounders (OR 1.09, 95% CI 1.06–1.11). When we additionally adjusted for unobserved familial confounders, the effect was no longer present (OR 0.96, 95% CI 0.84–1.10). Similar results were observed for substance misuse. The results were not due to poor variability either between neighbourhoods or within families.

Childhood family income, adolescent violent criminality and substance misuse: quasi-experimental total population study: http://bjp.rcpsych.org/content/early/2014/08/14/bjp.bp.113.136200
https://www.economist.com/news/science-and-technology/21613303-disturbing-study-link-between-incomes-and-criminal-behaviour-have-and
What did surprise him was that when he looked at families which had started poor and got richer, the younger children—those born into relative affluence—were just as likely to misbehave when they were teenagers as their elder siblings had been. Family income was not, per se, the determining factor.

Indicators of domestic/intimate partner violence are structured by genetic and nonshared environmental influences: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/233737219_Indicators_of_domesticintimate_partner_violence_are_structured_by_genetic_and_nonshared_environmental_influences
Three indicators of IPV were measured and genetic factors accounted for 24% of the variance in hitting one's partner, 54% of the variance in injuring one's partner, and 51% of the variance in forcing sexual activity on one's partner. The shared environment explained none of the variance across all three indicators and the nonshared environment explained the remainder of the variance.
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october 2017 by nhaliday
Is traditional teaching really all that bad? A within-student between-subject approach
Results indicate that traditional lecture style teaching is associated with significantly higher student achievement.
pdf  study  learning  teaching  psychology  social-psych  academia  higher-ed  intervention  null-result  field-study  economics  sociology 
september 2017 by nhaliday
National hiring experiments reveal 2:1 faculty preference for women on STEM tenure track
Here we report five hiring experiments in which faculty evaluated hypothetical female and male applicants, using systematically varied profiles disguising identical scholarship, for assistant professorships in biology, engineering, economics, and psychology. Contrary to prevailing assumptions, men and women faculty members from all four fields preferred female applicants 2:1 over identically qualified males with matching lifestyles (single, married, divorced), with the exception of male economists, who showed no gender preference. Comparing different lifestyles revealed that women preferred divorced mothers to married fathers and that men preferred mothers who took parental leaves to mothers who did not.

Double-blind review favours increased representation of female authors: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0169534707002704
Double-blind peer review, in which neither author nor reviewer identity are revealed, is rarely practised in ecology or evolution journals. However, in 2001, double-blind review was introduced by the journal Behavioral Ecology. Following this policy change, there was a significant increase in female first-authored papers, a pattern not observed in a very similar journal that provides reviewers with author information. No negative effects could be identified, suggesting that double-blind review should be considered by other journals.

Teaching accreditation exams reveal grading biases favor women in male-dominated disciplines in France: http://science.sciencemag.org/content/353/6298/474
This bias turns from 3 to 5 percentile ranks for men in literature and foreign languages to about 10 percentile ranks for women in math, physics, or philosophy.
study  org:nat  science  meta:science  gender  discrimination  career  progression  planning  long-term  values  academia  field-study  null-result  effect-size  🎓  multi  publishing  intervention  biases 
july 2017 by nhaliday
On the effects of inequality on economic growth | Nintil
After the discussion above, what should one think about the relationship between inequality and growth?

For starters, that the consensus of the literature points to our lack of knowledge, and the need to be very careful when studying these phenomena. As of today there is no solid consensus on the effects of inequality on growth. Tentatively, on the grounds of Neves et al.’s meta-analysis, we can conclude that the impact of inequality on developed countries is economically insignificant. This means that one can claim that inequality is good, bad, or neutral for growth as long as the effects claimed are small and one talks about developed countries. For developing countries, the relationships are more negative.

http://squid314.livejournal.com/320672.html
I recently finished The Spirit Level, subtitled "Why More Equal Societies Almost Almost Do Better", although "Five Million Different Scatter Plot Graphs Plus Associated Commentary" would also have worked. It was a pretty thorough manifesto for the best kind of leftism: the type that foregoes ideology and a priori arguments in exchange for a truckload of statistics showing that their proposed social remedies really work.

Inequality: some people know what they want to find: https://www.adamsmith.org/blog/economics/inequality-some-people-know-what-they-want-to-find

Inequality doesn’t matter: a primer: https://www.adamsmith.org/blog/inequality-doesnt-matter-a-primer

Inequality and visibility of wealth in experimental social networks: https://www.nature.com/articles/nature15392
- Akihiro Nishi, Hirokazu Shirado, David G. Rand & Nicholas A. Christakis

We show that wealth visibility facilitates the downstream consequences of initial inequality—in initially more unequal situations, wealth visibility leads to greater inequality than when wealth is invisible. This result reflects a heterogeneous response to visibility in richer versus poorer subjects. We also find that making wealth visible has adverse welfare consequences, yielding lower levels of overall cooperation, inter-connectedness, and wealth. High initial levels of economic inequality alone, however, have relatively few deleterious welfare effects.

https://twitter.com/NAChristakis/status/952315243572719617
https://archive.is/DpyAx
Our own work has shown that the *visibility* of inequality, more then the inequality per se, may be especially corrosive to the social fabric. https://www.nature.com/articles/nature15392 … I wonder if @WalterScheidel historical data sheds light on this idea? end 5/
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june 2017 by nhaliday
Revealing the Economic Consequences of Group Cohesion
A comprehensive program of new experiments reveals the considerable economic impact of cohesion: higher cohesion groups are significantly more likely to achieve Pareto-superior outcomes in classic weak-link coordination games. We show that effects of cohesion are economically large, robust, and portable. We identify social preferences as a primary mechanism explaining the effects of cohesion.

...

Our workhorse to study group outcomes is a weak-link coordination game chosen because it captures economically interesting problems endemic to organizations and teams (e.g., Camerer and Weber (2013)). In our version of the weak-link game, inspired by Brandts and Cooper (2006), group members simultaneously choose an effort level. Payoffs to each group member then depend on their own effort and the lowest effort chosen by anyone (the “weakest link”) in the group. The game has multiple strict Pareto-ranked Nash equilibria in material payoffs. This feature makes it particularly interesting for our purposes because it combines two dimensions of group success: features of coordination (choosing the same effort level as other group members) and cooperation (groups achieving Pareto-superior Nash equilibria). We expected our weak-link game to be a “harsh” environment in the sense that most groups who play this game under anonymity and in the absence of pre-existing social relationships will collapse to the Pareto-worst equilibrium and never escape from it (Brandts and Cooper (2006), and own replication).

As we show in Section V, group cohesion is a key determinant of behavior in our experiments: low cohesion groups usually descend rapidly to minimum effort; high cohesion groups fare much better and high cohesion appears necessary (though not sufficient) for achieving Pareto-superior outcomes. Surprisingly, our measure of group cohesion is the only variable that successfully predicts cooperation success; none of more than twenty control variables (demographics and group characteristics) explain minimum effort. Further experiments show that our results are robust to the timing of oneness measurement (before or after play of the weak-link game). By benchmarking our results against the effect of monetary incentives, we also show (Section VI) that the effortenhancing effects of group cohesion are sizeable: large financial incentives are needed to achieve the levels of minimum effort expected for high cohesion groups.

In Section VII we turn to an explanation of our results. A rational choice perspective suggests three natural channels through which group cohesion could operate: it might affect some combination of group members’ social preferences, their beliefs or the form of their strategic reasoning. Considering social preferences, it is plausible to assume that members of highly cohesive groups care about one another and so place weight on each other’s earnings.1 In our weak-link game, if players do draw utility from each other’s earnings, this is tantamount to (some) sharing of earnings, which reduces strategic risk and fosters coordination on Pareto-superior equilibria.2 In relation to beliefs, highly cohesive groups may be more confident in simulating other group members’ thought processes and likely actions, perhaps because of a history of interactions in different (related) situations, which allows for implicit learning (e.g., Holyoak and Spellman (1993), Rick and Weber (2010)). Finally, group cohesion might influence the nature of strategic reasoning in more substantive ways. For instance, according to one model of strategic thinking, “team reasoning” (e.g., Sugden (2003), Bacharach (2006)), people think in terms of what would be best for the team (e.g., picking the Pareto-best equilibrium) and are inclined to do their part in implementing the group-optimal outcome. An interesting possibility is that team reasoning may be more likely the more cohesive the team is. These three channels might operate jointly and potentially reinforce each other in high cohesion groups. By contrast, low cohesion groups may have low levels of social preferences, little implicit learning to draw on from shared situations, and no team perception to facilitate team reasoning.

We probe these possibilities in two steps. We first show that subjects who report high oneness with their fellow group members are indeed more likely to expose themselves to the strategic risk of choosing high initial effort in our weak-link games; they are also less “harsh” in their responses when others’ effort levels are below their own. In highly cohesive groups, these tendencies apply across group members promoting coordination on equilibria above the Pareto-worst.

Our second step is to identify the social preferences channel as a promising route for explaining observed effects of group cohesion. We demonstrate this via additional experiments in which unrelated and anonymous group members play weak-link games but with all earnings shared equally. We interpret this manipulation as inducing a limiting form of social preferences (where all put equal weight on everyone’s material payoffs). The results show patterns of effort (opening levels and dynamics) very comparable to the top third most cohesive groups from our main experiment. Thus, social preferences provide a parsimonious candidate explanation of how group cohesion promotes Pareto-superior equilibria.

Smart groups of smart people: Evidence for IQ as the origin of collective intelligence in the performance of human groups: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0160289616303282
Group-IQ almost exclusively reflects individual cognition. (80% variance explained)
pdf  study  org:ngo  economics  growth-econ  behavioral-gen  psychology  social-psych  cohesion  putnam-like  coordination  trust  social-capital  values  tribalism  descriptive  collaboration  pareto  efficiency  anthropology  altruism  🎩  white-paper  info-econ  microfoundations  industrial-org  n-factor  broad-econ  cooperate-defect  axelrod  organizing  roots  interests  hive-mind  multi  iq  gender  contrarianism  critique  management  diversity  individualism-collectivism  objective-measure  biophysical-econ  wealth-of-nations  variance-components  null-result  attaq  intelligence  psychometrics  decision-making  GT-101  public-goodish 
june 2017 by nhaliday
Is Pharma Research Worse Than Chance? | Slate Star Codex
Here’s one hypothesis: at the highest level, the brain doesn’t have that many variables to affect, or all the variables are connected. If you smack the brain really really hard in some direction or other, you will probably treat some psychiatric disease. Drugs of abuse are ones that smack the brain really hard in some direction or other. They do something. So find the psychiatric illness that’s treated by smacking the brain in that direction, and you’re good.

Actual carefully-researched psychiatric drugs are exquisitely selected for having few side effects. The goal is something like an SSRI – mild stomach discomfort, some problems having sex, but overall you can be on them forever and barely notice their existence. In the grand scheme of things their side effects are tiny – in most placebo-controlled studies, people have a really hard time telling whether they’re in the experimental or the placebo group.

...

But given that we’re all very excited to learn about ketamine and MDMA, and given that if their original promise survives further testing we will consider them great discoveries, it suggests we chose the wrong part of the tradeoff curve. Or at least it suggests a different way of framing that tradeoff curve. A drug that makes you feel extreme side effects for a few hours – but also has very strong and lasting treatment effects – is better than a drug with few side effects and weaker treatment effects. That suggests a new direction pharmaceutical companies might take: look for the chemicals that have the strongest and wackiest effects on the human mind. Then see if any of them also treat some disease.

I think this is impossible with current incentives. There’s too little risk-tolerance at every stage in the system. But if everyone rallied around the idea, it might be that trying the top hundred craziest things Alexander Shulgin dreamed up on whatever your rat model is would be orders of magnitude more productive than whatever people are doing now.
ratty  yvain  ssc  reflection  psychiatry  medicine  pharma  drugs  error  efficiency  random  meta:medicine  flexibility  outcome-risk  incentives  stagnation  innovation  low-hanging  tradeoffs  realness  perturbation  degrees-of-freedom  volo-avolo  null-result 
june 2017 by nhaliday
Does the European Marriage Pattern Explain Economic Growth?
Hajnal not validated:
There is no evidence that the EMP improved economic performance by empowering women, increasing human capital investment, adjusting population to economic trends, or sustaining beneficial cultural norms. European economic success was not caused by the EMP and its sources must therefore be sought in other factors.

http://www.ssc.wisc.edu/~walker/wp/wp-content/uploads/2012/09/Hajnal1982.pdf
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june 2017 by nhaliday
Why we should love null results – The 100% CI
https://twitter.com/StuartJRitchie/status/870257682233659392
This is a must-read blog for many reasons, but biggest is: it REALLY matters if a hypothesis is likely to be true.
Strikes me that the areas of psychology with the most absurd hypotheses (ones least likely to be true) *AHEMSOCIALPRIMINGAHEM* are also...
...the ones with extremely small sample sizes. So this already-scary graph from the blogpost becomes all the more terrifying:
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june 2017 by nhaliday
POPULATION STRUCTURE AND QUANTITATIVE CHARACTERS
The variance of among-group variance is substantial and does not depend on the number of loci contributing to variance in the character. It is just as large for polygenic characters as for single loci with the same additive variance. This implies that one polygenic character contains exactly as much information about population relationships as one single-locus marker.

same is true of expectation apparently (so drift has same impact on polygenic and single-locus traits)
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may 2017 by nhaliday
Are military coups based on popular opinion? Poor growth performance? - Marginal REVOLUTION
Over the course of this research, I observed that conspirators devoted very little consideration during coup plotting to the question of how the population would react. Coup makers are largely convinced that their cause is just (even when the coup comes from a partisan or personal interest), and that they will have widespread popular support for their actions, with perhaps limited opposition coming from entrenched special interests.

…there is no relationship between economic growth rates and the likelihood of a coup. Similarly, there is no relationship between regime type and coup attempts. Even though democracies are presumed to have higher levels of legitimacy than other kinds of political regimes, they were no more or less likely to experience coup attempts. Lastly, coup attempts were actually more likely to occur during presidential election years, which suggests that conspirators were acting to thwart the popular will rather than being constrained by it.

…The bottom line is that the dynamics of a coup attempt are almost entirely internal to the military.
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may 2017 by nhaliday
Assortive mating and income inequality | West Hunter
More than in the past, we have doctors marrying other doctors, rather than nurses, basically because of an increase in assortative mating for education. Ceteris paribus, this would tend to cause greater income equality among families. Is it the main driver of increasing income inequality?

Not at all. Most of the increase over the last 30 years has been among business executives and people working in finance. Since 1979, 58% of the expansion of income of the top 1% of households has this origin. For the top 0.1% of households, it’s been 67%.

...

Now I’m about to say something a little dangerous – so get your nitroglycerin pills ready.

Maybe those finance guys and CEOs are delivering enormously more value than they did in the 1950s!

For those remaining readers that haven’t died laughing, increased assortative mating probably has contributed to income inequality. Just not very much. Changes in the tax code, outsourcing, automation, smothering the board of directors in cream, and inattentive stockholders all matter more.

capital gains: https://westhunt.wordpress.com/2014/03/21/assortive-mating-and-income-inequality/#comment-24318
http://www.theamericanconservative.com/millman/assortative-mating-and-income-inequality/
Educational Homogamy and Assortative Mating Have Not Increased: http://sci-hub.cc/http://www.nber.org/papers/w22927.pdf
1960-2010, so all post WW2
https://twitter.com/whyvert/status/840379325908049920
Highly educated women partner more often “downwards” and medium educated women partner less often “upwards”
The new assortative mating (phenotypical, perhaps no change in genotypical assortative mating) due to women outnumbering men at university
If this means less genotypic assortative mating, then BAD NEWS: the smart fraction will shrink, and #decline will accelerate
Counterrevolutionary and reactionary elements warned it was a mistake to debauch higher education by over-expansion. Maybe they were right?
https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10680-016-9407-z
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may 2017 by nhaliday
None So Blind | West Hunter
There have been several articles in the literature claiming that the gene frequency of the 35delG allele of connexin-26, the most common allele causing deafness in Europeans, has doubled in the past 200 years, as a result of relaxed selection and assortative mating over that period.

That’s fucking ridiculous. I see people referencing this in journal articles and books. It’s mentioned in OMIM. But it’s pure nonsense.

https://westhunt.wordpress.com/2013/03/05/none-so-blind/#comment-10483
The only way you’re going to see such a high frequency of an effectively lethal recessive in a continental population is if it conferred a reproductive advantage in heterozygotes. The required advantage must have been as large as its gene frequency, something around 1-2%.

So it’s like sickle-cell.

Now, if you decreased the bad reproductive consequences of deafness, what would you expect to happen? Gradual increase, at around 1 or 2% a generation, if the carrier advantage held – but it probably didn’t. It was probably a defense against some infectious disease, and those have become much less important. If there was no longer any carrier advantage, the frequency wouldn’t change at all.

In order to double in 200 years, you would need a carrier advantage > 9%.

Assortative mating,deaf people marrying other deaf people, would not make much difference. Even if deaf people substantially out-reproduced normals, which they don’t, only ~1-2% of the copies of 35delG reside in deaf people.
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may 2017 by nhaliday
Flynn Effect and Digit Span - Completed - ACCEPTED.pdf
no Flynn effect for working memory

Consequently, if the Flynn effect is occurring, it would appear to be a phenomenon that is completely independent of STMC and WMC, which may be surprising, given the close correspondence between WMC and fluid intelligence.
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may 2017 by nhaliday
Reversal of Fortune | West Hunter
https://westhunt.wordpress.com/2012/12/03/reversal-of-fortune-2/#comment-5940
“particularly in the fetus”. You’d think so, but people have looked at Dutch draftees who were in the womb during the famine of 1944. They found no effects of famine exposure on Ravens scores at age 19. Schizophrenia doubled, though. Schiz also doubled in the Chinese cohort exposed to the Great Leap Forward famine.

Cohort Profile: The Dutch Hunger Winter Families Study: https://academic.oup.com/ije/article/36/6/1196/814573
Nutrition and Mental Performance: https://sci-hub.bz/10.1126/science.178.4062.708
Schizophrenia after prenatal exposure to the Dutch Hunger Winter of 1944-1945: https://sci-hub.bz/10.1001/archpsyc.1992.01820120071010
Prenatal famine exposure and cognition at age 59 years: https://sci-hub.bz/10.1093/ije/dyq261

https://westhunt.wordpress.com/2012/12/03/reversal-of-fortune-2/#comment-5960
You might be right. There is reason to suspect that prenatal exposure to alcohol is far riskier in some populations than others – in particular populations that have limited historical exposure to alcohol. Fetal Alcohol Syndrome (FAS) is very rare in France, for example – yet they drink, I’m told.

https://westhunt.wordpress.com/2012/12/03/reversal-of-fortune-2/#comment-5961
The kind of conservatism that shows up politically doesn’t have any predictive value. In other words, liars and morons. They’re why God made baseball bats. Once upon a time, I said this: “The American right doesn’t have room for anyone who knows jack shit about anything, or whose predictions have ever come true.” I’ll stick with that.

full quote here: http://www.rpgcodex.net/forums/index.php?threads/planescape-torment-problems.9208/
The American right doesn't have room for anyone who knows jack shit about anything, or whose predictions have ever come true. Of course they're all liars. In the words of one of their semi-prominent members, himself plenty despicable: "Science, logic, rational inquiry, thoughtful reflection, mean nothing to them. It's all posturing and moral status games and sucking up to halfwits like GWB and clinging to crackpot religion, and of course amoral careerism. " I think my correspondent forgot to mention their propensity for eating shit and rolling around in their own vomit, but nobody's perfect.

lol:
https://westhunt.wordpress.com/2012/12/03/reversal-of-fortune-2/#comment-6045
I’ve mused that it’s generally believed that iodine benefits females more than males, and the timing of iodization in the US matches up reasonably well with the rise of feminism…
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may 2017 by nhaliday
Links 5/17: Rip Van Linkle | Slate Star Codex
More on Low-Trust Russia: Do Russian Who Wants To Be A Millionaire contestants avoid asking the audience because they expect audience members to deliberately mislead them?

Xenocrypt on the math of economic geography: “A party’s voters should get more or less seats based on the shape of the monotonic curve with integral one they can be arranged in” might sound like a very silly belief, but it is equivalent to the common mantra that you deserve to lose if your voters are ‘too clustered’”

Okay, look, I went way too long between writing up links posts this time, so you’re getting completely dated obsolete stuff like Actually, Neil Gorsuch Is A Champion Of The Little Guy. But aside from the Gorsuch reference this is actually pretty timeless – basically an argument for strict constructionism on the grounds that “a flexible, living, bendable law will always tend to be bent in the direction of the powerful.”

Otium: Are Adult Developmental Stages Real? Looks at Kohlberg, Kegan, etc.

I mentioned the debate over 5-HTTLPR, a gene supposedly linked to various mental health outcomes, in my review of pharmacogenomics. Now a very complete meta-analysis finds that a lot of the hype around it isn’t true. This is pretty impressive since there are dozens of papers claiming otherwise, and maybe the most striking example yet of how apparently well-replicated a finding can be and still fail to pan out.

Rootclaim describes itself as a crowd-sourced argument mapper. See for example its page on who launched the chemical attack in Syria.

Apparently if you just kill off all the cells that are growing too old, you can partly reverse organisms’ aging (paper, popular article)

The Politics Of The Gene: “Contrary to expectations, however, we find little evidence that it is more common for whites, the socioeconomically advantaged, or political conservatives to believe that genetics are important for health and social outcomes.”

Siberian Fox linked me to two studies that somewhat contradicted my minimalist interpretation of childhood trauma here: Alemany on psychosis and Turkheimer on harsh punishment.

Lyrebird is an AI project which, if fed samples of a person’s voice, can read off any text you want in the same voice. See their demo with Obama, Trump, and Hillary (I find them instantly recognizable but not at all Turing-passing). They say making this available is ethical because it raises awareness of the potential risk, which a Facebook friend compared to “selling nukes to ISIS in order to raise awareness of the risk of someone selling nukes to ISIS.”

Freddie deBoer gives lots of evidence that there is no shortage of qualified STEM workers relative to other fields and the industry is actually pretty saturated. But Wall Street Journal seems to think they have evidence for the opposite? Curious what all of the tech workers here think.

Scott Sumner: How Can There Be A Shortage Of Construction Workers? That is, is it at all plausible that (as help wanted ads would suggest) there are areas where construction companies can’t find unskilled laborers willing to work for $90,000/year? Sumner splits this question in two – first, an economics question of why an efficient market wouldn’t cause salaries to rise to a level that guarantees all jobs get filled. And second, a political question of how this could happen in a country where we’re constantly told that unskilled men are desperate because there are no job opportunities for them anymore. The answers seem to be “there’s a neat but complicated economics reason for the apparent inefficiency” and “the $90,000 number is really misleading but there may still be okay-paying construction jobs going unfilled and that’s still pretty strange”.

Study which is so delightfully contrarian I choose to reblog it before reading it all the way through: mandatory class attendance policies in college decrease grades by preventing students from making rational decisions about when and how to study.
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may 2017 by nhaliday
Is soy good or bad for me? | Examine.com
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3076650/
The estimated per capita consumption of soybean oil increased >1000-fold from 1909 to 1999.
https://twitter.com/evolutionarypsy/status/892489043446988800 (increase started during 60s)

Clinical studies show no effects of soy protein or isoflavones on reproductive hormones in men: results of a meta-analysis: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/19524224
No significant effects of soy protein or isoflavone intake on T, SHBG, free T, or FAI were detected regardless of statistical model.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/?term=soy+phytoestrogen+men
some good ones:
pros and cons: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3074428/
reproductive consequences: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3443604/
visuospatial memory: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC64558/
reject (in humans)t: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/19524224

https://discourse.soylent.com/t/soy-in-soylent-2-0/22826/

https://well.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/09/27/ask-well-is-it-safe-to-eat-soy/
A: yes
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may 2017 by nhaliday
Places and Preferences: A Longitudinal Analysis of Self-Selection and Contextual Effects | British Journal of Political Science | Cambridge Core
preferences -> place, not place -> preferences (mostly)
Cosmopolitan immigration attitudes in Europe's large cities: Adaptation or selection: https://www.dropbox.com/s/lb3yrsdlhpxprfs/RahsaanMaxwellAPSACosmopolitanImmigrationCities.pdf?dl=0
The myth of London exceptionalism: https://quarterly.demos.co.uk/article/issue-5/ukip-in-london/
London is not as invulnerable to the appeal of UKIP as commonly reported, finds new research from Eric Kaufmann.

Are White British Londoners more accepting of immigration than White British elsewhere? The British Election Study (BES)’s 2015 panel survey asks whether immigration enriches or undermines cultural life. 34.7 per cent of White British outside London say immigration strongly undermines cultural life. But so do 34.4 per cent of White British Londoners. Not much difference there. 44 per cent of White Brits outside London want to leave the EU, but so do 42.3 per cent of White British Londoners. Again, not much in it.

...

Finally, when we control for a fuller range of demographic and attitudinal characteristics, as in figure 4, London and the South East emerge as significantly more likely than the rest of England and Wales to have voted UKIP in 2014, according to the BES.

Cosmopolitan cities and their country cousins – UK in a changing Europe: http://ukandeu.ac.uk/london-voted-leave-or-why-local-differences-in-populist-right-voting-are-overstated/
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may 2017 by nhaliday
Will exercise save your wits? - The Unz Review
Tai Chi seems to do well, though the number of studies is smaller than other forms of exercise. The frequency of taking exercise shows a dose-response relationship, but less for intensity and duration and length, which is a little surprising. Moving about a bit every day seems the best policy. More socially active control groups seem almost as good as exercise, as does the sham exercise of stretching, so this is somewhat of a worry for the “exercise saves your wits” hypothesis.
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may 2017 by nhaliday
Actually, Prohibition Was a Success - NYTimes.com
http://www.benespen.com/journal/2017/4/19/the-long-view-terrible-honesty
https://www.economist.com/blogs/dailychart/2010/11/drugs_cause_most_harm

did crime also increase though?

advertising today: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/02650487.2015.1019961
This study has provided evidence of consumption changes across categories of alcohol beverages over the past 40-plus years with the preponderance of those changes significantly correlated to fluctuations in demography, taxation and income levels – not advertising. Despite other macro-level studies with consistent findings, the perception that advertising increases consumption exists. The findings here indicate that there is either no relationship or a weak one between advertising and aggregate category sales. Therefore, advertising restrictions or bans with the purpose of reducing consumption may not have the desired effect. Implications on policy decisions regarding advertising controls are addressed.
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april 2017 by nhaliday
Educational Romanticism & Economic Development | pseudoerasmus
https://twitter.com/GarettJones/status/852339296358940672
deleeted

https://twitter.com/GarettJones/status/943238170312929280
https://archive.is/p5hRA

Did Nations that Boosted Education Grow Faster?: http://econlog.econlib.org/archives/2012/10/did_nations_tha.html
On average, no relationship. The trendline points down slightly, but for the time being let's just call it a draw. It's a well-known fact that countries that started the 1960's with high education levels grew faster (example), but this graph is about something different. This graph shows that countries that increased their education levels did not grow faster.

Where has all the education gone?: http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.1016.2704&rep=rep1&type=pdf

https://twitter.com/GarettJones/status/948052794681966593
https://archive.is/kjxqp

https://twitter.com/GarettJones/status/950952412503822337
https://archive.is/3YPic

https://twitter.com/pseudoerasmus/status/862961420065001472
http://hanushek.stanford.edu/publications/schooling-educational-achievement-and-latin-american-growth-puzzle

The Case Against Education: What's Taking So Long, Bryan Caplan: http://econlog.econlib.org/archives/2015/03/the_case_agains_9.html

The World Might Be Better Off Without College for Everyone: https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2018/01/whats-college-good-for/546590/
Students don't seem to be getting much out of higher education.
- Bryan Caplan

College: Capital or Signal?: http://www.economicmanblog.com/2017/02/25/college-capital-or-signal/
After his review of the literature, Caplan concludes that roughly 80% of the earnings effect from college comes from signalling, with only 20% the result of skill building. Put this together with his earlier observations about the private returns to college education, along with its exploding cost, and Caplan thinks that the social returns are negative. The policy implications of this will come as very bitter medicine for friends of Bernie Sanders.

Doubting the Null Hypothesis: http://www.arnoldkling.com/blog/doubting-the-null-hypothesis/

Is higher education/college in the US more about skill-building or about signaling?: https://www.quora.com/Is-higher-education-college-in-the-US-more-about-skill-building-or-about-signaling
ballpark: 50% signaling, 30% selection, 20% addition to human capital
more signaling in art history, more human capital in engineering, more selection in philosophy

Econ Duel! Is Education Signaling or Skill Building?: http://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2016/03/econ-duel-is-education-signaling-or-skill-building.html
Marginal Revolution University has a brand new feature, Econ Duel! Our first Econ Duel features Tyler and me debating the question, Is education more about signaling or skill building?

Against Tulip Subsidies: https://slatestarcodex.com/2015/06/06/against-tulip-subsidies/

https://www.overcomingbias.com/2018/01/read-the-case-against-education.html

https://nintil.com/2018/02/05/notes-on-the-case-against-education/

https://www.nationalreview.com/magazine/2018-02-19-0000/bryan-caplan-case-against-education-review

https://spottedtoad.wordpress.com/2018/02/12/the-case-against-education/
Most American public school kids are low-income; about half are non-white; most are fairly low skilled academically. For most American kids, the majority of the waking hours they spend not engaged with electronic media are at school; the majority of their in-person relationships are at school; the most important relationships they have with an adult who is not their parent is with their teacher. For their parents, the most important in-person source of community is also their kids’ school. Young people need adult mirrors, models, mentors, and in an earlier era these might have been provided by extended families, but in our own era this all falls upon schools.

Caplan gestures towards work and earlier labor force participation as alternatives to school for many if not all kids. And I empathize: the years that I would point to as making me who I am were ones where I was working, not studying. But they were years spent working in schools, as a teacher or assistant. If schools did not exist, is there an alternative that we genuinely believe would arise to draw young people into the life of their community?

...

It is not an accident that the state that spends the least on education is Utah, where the LDS church can take up some of the slack for schools, while next door Wyoming spends almost the most of any state at $16,000 per student. Education is now the one surviving binding principle of the society as a whole, the one black box everyone will agree to, and so while you can press for less subsidization of education by government, and for privatization of costs, as Caplan does, there’s really nothing people can substitute for it. This is partially about signaling, sure, but it’s also because outside of schools and a few religious enclaves our society is but a darkling plain beset by winds.

This doesn’t mean that we should leave Caplan’s critique on the shelf. Much of education is focused on an insane, zero-sum race for finite rewards. Much of schooling does push kids, parents, schools, and school systems towards a solution ad absurdum, where anything less than 100 percent of kids headed to a doctorate and the big coding job in the sky is a sign of failure of everyone concerned.

But let’s approach this with an eye towards the limits of the possible and the reality of diminishing returns.

https://westhunt.wordpress.com/2018/01/27/poison-ivy-halls/
https://westhunt.wordpress.com/2018/01/27/poison-ivy-halls/#comment-101293
The real reason the left would support Moander: the usual reason. because he’s an enemy.

https://westhunt.wordpress.com/2018/02/01/bright-college-days-part-i/
I have a problem in thinking about education, since my preferences and personal educational experience are atypical, so I can’t just gut it out. On the other hand, knowing that puts me ahead of a lot of people that seem convinced that all real people, including all Arab cabdrivers, think and feel just as they do.

One important fact, relevant to this review. I don’t like Caplan. I think he doesn’t understand – can’t understand – human nature, and although that sometimes confers a different and interesting perspective, it’s not a royal road to truth. Nor would I want to share a foxhole with him: I don’t trust him. So if I say that I agree with some parts of this book, you should believe me.

...

Caplan doesn’t talk about possible ways of improving knowledge acquisition and retention. Maybe he thinks that’s impossible, and he may be right, at least within a conventional universe of possibilities. That’s a bit outside of his thesis, anyhow. Me it interests.

He dismisses objections from educational psychologists who claim that studying a subject improves you in subtle ways even after you forget all of it. I too find that hard to believe. On the other hand, it looks to me as if poorly-digested fragments of information picked up in college have some effect on public policy later in life: it is no coincidence that most prominent people in public life (at a given moment) share a lot of the same ideas. People are vaguely remembering the same crap from the same sources, or related sources. It’s correlated crap, which has a much stronger effect than random crap.

These widespread new ideas are usually wrong. They come from somewhere – in part, from higher education. Along this line, Caplan thinks that college has only a weak ideological effect on students. I don’t believe he is correct. In part, this is because most people use a shifting standard: what’s liberal or conservative gets redefined over time. At any given time a population is roughly half left and half right – but the content of those labels changes a lot. There’s a shift.

https://westhunt.wordpress.com/2018/02/01/bright-college-days-part-i/#comment-101492
I put it this way, a while ago: “When you think about it, falsehoods, stupid crap, make the best group identifiers, because anyone might agree with you when you’re obviously right. Signing up to clear nonsense is a better test of group loyalty. A true friend is with you when you’re wrong. Ideally, not just wrong, but barking mad, rolling around in your own vomit wrong.”
--
You just explained the Credo quia absurdum doctrine. I always wondered if it was nonsense. It is not.
--
Someone on twitter caught it first – got all the way to “sliding down the razor blade of life”. Which I explained is now called “transitioning”

What Catholics believe: https://theweek.com/articles/781925/what-catholics-believe
We believe all of these things, fantastical as they may sound, and we believe them for what we consider good reasons, well attested by history, consistent with the most exacting standards of logic. We will profess them in this place of wrath and tears until the extraordinary event referenced above, for which men and women have hoped and prayed for nearly 2,000 years, comes to pass.

https://westhunt.wordpress.com/2018/02/05/bright-college-days-part-ii/
According to Caplan, employers are looking for conformity, conscientiousness, and intelligence. They use completion of high school, or completion of college as a sign of conformity and conscientiousness. College certainly looks as if it’s mostly signaling, and it’s hugely expensive signaling, in terms of college costs and foregone earnings.

But inserting conformity into the merit function is tricky: things become important signals… because they’re important signals. Otherwise useful actions are contraindicated because they’re “not done”. For example, test scores convey useful information. They could help show that an applicant is smart even though he attended a mediocre school – the same role they play in college admissions. But employers seldom request test scores, and although applicants may provide them, few do. Caplan says ” The word on the street… [more]
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april 2017 by nhaliday
Anonymous Mugwump: The Empirics of Free Speech and Realistic Idealism: Part II
1. News Media: Murdoch and the Purple Land
2. The Effects of Money and Lobbying in Politics
3. Video Games: Crash Bandicoot Shouting Fire in a Crowded Theatre
4. Porn: Having an Orgasm in a Crowded Theatre
5. Sexist Speech: Crash Bandicoot Making Rape Jokes in a Crowded Theatre
6. Race Related Speech: Hollywood, Skokie and Umugandas in Rwanda
7. Incitement, Obedience and Speech Act Theory: Eichmann to Jihadi Twitter
8. Conclusion: Epistemic Humility

...

Here is what I am seeking to show in the next few paragraphs:
1. Corporate ownership of the media does not lead to corporate-friendly media output arising from a conflict of interest.
2. The main driver of media output is consumer demand (i.e., people read what they already agree with) as the above extract indicates.
3. This could create a new negative effect of a free media: people living in a bubble where their views are reinforced by an uninformative partisan press.
4. I do not believe this bubble exists: reputational effects and consumer demand for truth rather than reinforcement of existing beliefs means that the partisan media does not, uniformly or consistently, distort the truth.

...

For clarity: my primary argument is that things like campaign contributions and lobbying don’t matter. But, in deference to how mixed the literature is, I would say that our aversion to interest groups is misguided. Whether it’s Save the Children campaigning for minimum levels of aid or Citigroup lobbying for certain legislation, we needn’t jump to accusations of corruption or cronyism. Democratic politics is about legislators listening, being persuaded in a marketplace of ideas – and it really doesn’t matter if the person putting forward that idea is Exxon Mobil or a constituent. The burden for suggesting that there is impropriety is necessarily high and I simply haven’t seen any convincing evidence that there is necessarily or mostly a link between money, lobbying, politics and impropriety.

...

[some stuff on video games, porn, sexism, and racial hate speech]

[this is pretty crazy:]
In essence, ‘learning from the peasant ideology… and the everyday propaganda during umuganda had also motivated people to see their fellow ba-Tutsi as enemies’ in the run up the genocide. When the genocide finally hit, umugandas were used more directly in the genocide:

During the genocide, umuganda did not involve planting trees but ‘clearing out the weeds’ – a phrase used by the genocidaires to mean the killing of Tutsis. Chopping up men was referred to as ‘bush clearing’ and slaughtering women and children as ‘pulling out the roots of the bad weeds’... The slogan, ‘clearing bushes and removing bad weeds’, were familiar terms used in the course of ordinary agricultural labour undertaken in umuganda.

...

One more Saturday with rainfall above 10mm corresponds to a 0.41 percentage point reduction in the civilian participation rate. Those who wish to stop curtail certain forms of hate speech might very easily rely on studies like this. But there is an even better study which they can rely on in doing so: RTLM was the radio station in Rwanda and much like the umugandas: referring to Tutsis as cockroaches and dirty.

Bowling for Fascism: Social Capital and the Rise of the Nazi Party: http://www.nber.org/papers/w19201
Towns with one standard deviation higher association density saw at least 15% faster Nazi Party entry. All types of societies – from veteran associations to animal breeders, chess clubs and choirs – positively predict NS Party entry.

White, middle-class social capital helps to incarcerate African-Americans in racially diverse states.: http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/usappblog/2017/09/22/white-middle-class-social-capital-helps-to-incarcerate-african-americans-in-racially-diverse-states/
Social capital is mostly seen as a ‘good’: bringing communities together and, in the case of criminal justice, encouraging social empathy which can lead to less harsh sentencing. But these analyses ignore racial divisions in social capital. In new research, Daniel Hawes finds that while social capital can reduce the Black-White disparity in incarceration rates in states with few African Americans, in states with greater numbers of African Americans, perceptions of racial threat can activate social capital in white communities, leading to greater targeting, profiling and arrests for minorities.
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april 2017 by nhaliday
Genome-Wide Association Study Reveals Multiple Loci Influencing Normal Human Facial Morphology
http://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0099009
https://twitter.com/dgmacarthur/status/904908988516585472
https://twitter.com/piper_jason/status/905128320869662720
http://www.biorxiv.org/content/early/2017/09/07/185330
https://www.technologyreview.com/s/608813/does-your-genome-predict-your-face-not-quite-yet/

http://journals.plos.org/plosbiology/article?id=10.1371/journal.pbio.1000451
Domestic dogs exhibit tremendous phenotypic diversity, including a greater variation in body size than any other terrestrial mammal. Here, we generate a high density map of canine genetic variation by genotyping 915 dogs from 80 domestic dog breeds, 83 wild canids, and 10 outbred African shelter dogs across 60,968 single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs). Coupling this genomic resource with external measurements from breed standards and individuals as well as skeletal measurements from museum specimens, we identify 51 regions of the dog genome associated with phenotypic variation among breeds in 57 traits. The complex traits include average breed body size and external body dimensions and cranial, dental, and long bone shape and size with and without allometric scaling. In contrast to the results from association mapping of quantitative traits in humans and domesticated plants, we find that across dog breeds, a small number of quantitative trait loci (≤3) explain the majority of phenotypic variation for most of the traits we studied. In addition, many genomic regions show signatures of recent selection, with most of the highly differentiated regions being associated with breed-defining traits such as body size, coat characteristics, and ear floppiness. Our results demonstrate the efficacy of mapping multiple traits in the domestic dog using a database of genotyped individuals and highlight the important role human-directed selection has played in altering the genetic architecture of key traits in this important species.
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april 2017 by nhaliday
The determinants of migration policies. Does the political orientation of governments matter? — International Migration Institute
Drawing on the DEMIG POLICY database tracking migration policy changes and two datasets on political institutions, we assess the effect of government party orientation on different dimensions of immigration policy in 21 European and traditional Anglo-Saxon immigration countries between 1975 and 2012. Results consistently indicate that there is no clear association between the political orientation of governments and the restrictiveness of migration policies. Instead, we find that the restrictiveness of migration policies is mainly driven by factors such as economic growth and unemployment, recent immigration levels and political system factors such as electoral systems or the level of federalism.
study  polisci  politics  wonkish  sociology  government  policy  migration  correlation  null-result  comparison  left-wing  right-wing  hmm  stylized-facts  usa  anglo  europe  EU  history  mostly-modern  ideology  chart  zeitgeist  the-bones  white-paper 
march 2017 by nhaliday
Interview Greg Cochran by Future Strategist
https://westhunt.wordpress.com/2016/08/10/interview/

- IQ enhancement (somewhat apprehensive, wonder why?)
- ~20 years to CRISPR enhancement (very ballpark)
- cloning as an alternative strategy
- environmental effects on IQ, what matters (iodine, getting hit in the head), what doesn't (schools, etc.), and toss-ups (childhood/embryonic near-starvation, disease besides direct CNS-affecting ones [!])
- malnutrition did cause more schizophrenia in Netherlands (WW2) and China (Great Leap Forward) though
- story about New Mexico schools and his children (mostly grad students in physics now)
- clever sillies, weird geniuses, and clueless elites
- life-extension and accidents, half-life ~ a few hundred years for a typical American
- Pinker on Harvard faculty adoptions (always Chinese girls)
- parabiosis, organ harvesting
- Chicago economics talk
- Catholic Church, cousin marriage, and the rise of the West
- Gregory Clark and Farewell to Alms
- retinoblastoma cancer, mutational load, and how to deal w/ it ("something will turn up")
- Tularemia and Stalingrad (ex-Soviet scientist literally mentioned his father doing it)
- germ warfare, nuclear weapons, and testing each
- poison gas, Haber, nerve gas, terrorists, Japan, Syria, and Turkey
- nukes at https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Incirlik_Air_Base
- IQ of ancient Greeks
- history of China and the Mongols, cloning Genghis Khan
- Alexander the Great vs. Napoleon, Russian army being late for meetup w/ Austrians
- the reason why to go into Iraq: to find and clone Genghis Khan!
- efficacy of torture
- monogamy, polygamy, and infidelity, the Aboriginal system (reverse aging wives)
- education and twin studies
- errors: passing white, female infanticide, interdisciplinary social science/economic imperialism, the slavery and salt story
- Jewish optimism about environmental interventions, Rabbi didn't want people to know, Israelis don't want people to know about group differences between Ashkenazim and other groups in Israel
- NASA spewing crap on extraterrestrial life (eg, thermodynamic gradient too weak for life in oceans of ice moons)
west-hunter  interview  audio  podcast  being-right  error  bounded-cognition  history  mostly-modern  giants  autism  physics  von-neumann  math  longevity  enhancement  safety  government  leadership  elite  scitariat  econotariat  cracker-econ  big-picture  judaism  iq  recent-selection  🌞  spearhead  gregory-clark  2016  space  xenobio  equilibrium  phys-energy  thermo  no-go  🔬  disease  gene-flow  population-genetics  gedanken  genetics  evolution  dysgenics  assortative-mating  aaronson  CRISPR  biodet  variance-components  environmental-effects  natural-experiment  stories  europe  germanic  psychology  cog-psych  psychiatry  china  asia  prediction  frontier  genetic-load  realness  time  aging  pinker  academia  medicine  economics  chicago  social-science  kinship  tribalism  religion  christianity  protestant-catholic  the-great-west-whale  divergence  roots  britain  agriculture  farmers-and-foragers  time-preference  cancer  society  civilization  russia  arms  parasites-microbiome  epidemiology  nuclear  biotech  deterrence  meta:war  terrorism  iraq-syria  MENA  foreign-poli 
march 2017 by nhaliday
Social Capital, Extractive Institutions, and Redistributive Institutions by Ryan H Murphy :: SSRN
This paper disaggregates EFW into four measures, two pertaining to freedom from extractive institutions, and two pertaining to freedom from redistributive institutions. The motivation is that social capital may enhance components of economic freedom by reducing extractive institutions, while also inhibiting other components of economic freedom by increasing the willingness to use the state to redistribute income. Analysis of data from the World Values Survey do not appear to support the hypothesis.
study  economics  civil-liberty  government  policy  roots  trust  putnam-like  efficiency  civic  null-result  rent-seeking  redistribution  cohesion  social-capital  political-econ  madisonian  wealth-of-nations  microfoundations 
march 2017 by nhaliday
PsycARTICLES - Is education associated with improvements in general cognitive ability, or in specific skills?
Results indicated that the association of education with improved cognitive test scores is not mediated by g, but consists of direct effects on specific cognitive skills. These results suggest a decoupling of educational gains from increases in general intellectual capacity.

look at Model C for the coefficients

How much does education improve intelligence? A meta-analysis: https://psyarxiv.com/kymhp
Intelligence test scores and educational duration are positively correlated. This correlation can be interpreted in two ways: students with greater propensity for intelligence go on to complete more education, or a longer education increases intelligence. We meta-analysed three categories of quasi-experimental studies of educational effects on intelligence: those estimating education-intelligence associations after controlling for earlier intelligence, those using compulsory schooling policy changes as instrumental variables, and those using regression-discontinuity designs on school-entry age cutoffs. Across 142 effect sizes from 42 datasets involving over 600,000 participants, we found consistent evidence for beneficial effects of education on cognitive abilities, of approximately 1 to 5 IQ points for an additional year of education. Moderator analyses indicated that the effects persisted across the lifespan, and were present on all broad categories of cognitive ability studied. Education appears to be the most consistent, robust, and durable method yet to be identified for raising intelligence.

three study designs: control for prior IQ, exogenous policy change, and school age cutoff regression discontinuity

https://westhunt.wordpress.com/2017/11/07/skoptsys/#comment-97601
It’s surprising that there isn’t much of a fadeout (p11) – half of the effect size is still there by age 70 (?!). That wasn’t what I expected. Maybe they’re being pulled upwards by smaller outlier studies – most of the bigger ones tend towards the lower end.

https://twitter.com/gwern/status/928308706370052098
https://archive.is/v98bd
These gains are hollow, as they acknowledge in the discussion. Examples:
albion  spearhead  scitariat  study  psychology  cog-psych  iq  large-factor  education  intervention  null-result  longitudinal  britain  anglo  psychometrics  psych-architecture  graphs  graphical-models  causation  neuro-nitgrit  effect-size  stylized-facts  direct-indirect  flexibility  input-output  evidence-based  preprint  multi  optimism  meta-analysis  west-hunter  poast  commentary  aging  marginal  europe  nordic  shift  twitter  social  backup  ratty  gwern  links  flynn  environmental-effects  debate  roots 
march 2017 by nhaliday
Confounder Of The Day: How Sexy Your Parents Were | Slate Star Codex
- "paternal age effect" just a selection effect (men w/ issues end up having kids later due to difficulty finding a mate)
- one other suggested inconsistent explanation: spermatogenic selfish-gene effect
- interesting discussion of sperm freezing
yvain  ssc  psychiatry  medicine  aging  developmental  study  summary  genetic-load  hmm  biodet  causation  planning  parenting  paternal-age  disease  sex  gender  selfish-gene  gwern  confounding  EGT  epidemiology  null-result  sib-study  ratty  behavioral-gen  cooperate-defect 
february 2017 by nhaliday
The Gut-Brain Axis in Healthy Females: Lack of Significant Association between Microbial Composition and Diversity with Psychiatric Measures
We found no significant associations between microbial markers of gut composition and diversity and scores on psychiatric measures of anxiety, depression, eating-related thoughts and behaviors, stress, or personality in a large cohort of healthy adult females
study  psychology  cog-psych  parasites-microbiome  embodied-cognition  regularizer  psychiatry  disease  correlation  epidemiology  null-result 
january 2017 by nhaliday
The Predictive Validity of Ideal Partner Preferences: A Review and Meta-Analysis
[A] new meta-analysis spanning the attraction and relationships literatures (k=97) revealed that physical attractiveness predicted romantic evaluations with a moderate-to-strong effect size (r = ~.40) for both sexes, and earning prospects predicted romantic evaluations with a small effect size (r = ~.10) for both sexes. Sex differences in the correlations were small (r_difference = .03) and uniformly nonsignificant.

Mating markets and bargaining hands: Mate preferences for attractiveness and resources in two national U.S. studies: http://www.sciencedirect.com.sci-hub.tw/science/article/pii/S0191886915005462
https://twitter.com/nmgrm/status/886223905261748224

Assessing Female Mate Preferences: Answers to Ten Common Criticisms of Evolutionary Psychology: https://areomagazine.com/2017/08/09/assessing-female-mate-preferences-answers-to-ten-common-criticisms-of-evolutionary-psychology/

How Important is Physical Attractiveness in the Marriage Market: http://www.reis.cis.es/REIS/PDF/REIS_159_07_ENGLISH1499424514902.pdf
For men, the results show that being unattractive decreases the likelihood of finding a partner, of finding a partner with a university degree, and of finding a partner with a higher educational level. For women, physical attractiveness does not affect the likelihood of any of those events occurring. The study has also found out that physical attractiveness has more of an influence on people with a working class background to find a partner with higher educational attainment. These results are unexpected and pose a challenge to the theory of erotic capital.
pdf  study  meta-analysis  psychology  social-psych  evopsych  gender  values  sex  🐝  compensation  science-anxiety  gender-diff  chart  solid-study  multi  piracy  twitter  social  commentary  gnon  🐸  embodied  money  status  null-result  data  poll  properties  survey  summary  scitariat  expert  org:mag  news  sociology  anthropology  class  human-capital  :/  attaq  stylized-facts  hmm  expert-experience  theory-of-mind 
january 2017 by nhaliday
The deleterious mutation load is insensitive to recent population history : Nature Genetics : Nature Research
contrary:
Distance from sub-Saharan Africa predicts mutational load in diverse human genomes: http://www.pnas.org/content/113/4/E440.abstract
“Out Of Africa” Bottleneck Is What Really Matters For Mutations: https://www.gnxp.com/WordPress/2017/04/26/out-of-africa-bottleneck-is-what-really-matters-for-mutations/
But there is also a lot of archaeological and some ancient genetic DNA now that indicates that the vast majority of non-African ancestry began to expand rapidly around 50-60,000 years ago. This is tens of thousands of years after the lowest value given above. Therefore, again we have to make recourse to a long period of separation before the expansion. This is not implausible on the face of it, but we could do something else: just assume there’s an artifact with their methods and the inferred date of divergence is too old. That would solve many of the issues.

I really don’t know if the above quibbles have any ramification for the site frequency spectrum of deleterious mutations. My own hunch is that no, it doesn’t impact the qualitative results at all.

Figure 3 clearly shows that Europeans are enriched for weak and moderately deleterious mutations (the last category produces weird results, and I wish they’d talked about this more, but they observe that strong deleterious mutations have issues getting detected). Ne is just the effective population size and s is the selection coefficient (bigger number, stronger selection).

Too Much Diversity: https://westhunt.wordpress.com/2012/11/30/too-much-diversity/
There’s a new paper out in Nature, by Wenqing Fu and many other people, about the recent origin of most variants in protein-coding genes. They conclude that most are less than 5-10,000 year old – younger in Europeans than in Africans. This is a natural consequence of the shape of human demographic history – there was a huge population increase with the advent of agriculture, and more people meant more mutations. That agricultural expansion happened somewhat earlier in the Middle East and Europe than in Africa.

...

A very few mutations are beneficial, some are neutral and many are deleterious, although the degree of harm inflicted varies widely. So the population expansion also increased the number of bad mutations – but unless selection also relaxed, it would not have changed the per-capita number of deleterious mutations, or the distribution of their effects (what fraction had large, medium, or small effects on fitness). It increased the diversity of deleterious mutations – they are more motley, not more common. The article never talks about that per-capita number, or, if it did , I was unable to winkle it out. It talks about ages and numbers of mutations – but not the mean number, in either of the two populations studied (European Americans and African Americans) . I think it would been a lot clearer, confused fewer reporters, if it had made that distinction. On the other hand, depending on the facts on the ground, talking about mutational load might be a grant-killer. There was a paper earlier this year (with many of the same authors) that used about half of the same data and did mention per-capita numbers. I’ve discussed it.

...

The paper says that there may be an excess of weakly deleterious mutations in Europeans due to bottlenecks back in the Ice Age. The idea works like this: selection is less efficient in small populations. Deleterious mutations with an effect s < 1/Ne drift freely and are not efficiently removed by selection. This effect takes on the order of Ne generations – so a population reduced to an effective size of of 10,000 for 10,000 generations ( ~250,000 years) would accumulate a large-than-usual number of deleterious mutations of effect size ~10-4. Lohmueller et al wrote about this back in 2008: the scenario they used had a European ancestral bottleneck 200,000 years long, which is A. what you need to make this scenario work and B. impossible, since it’s way before anatomically modern humans left Africa. Back to the drawing board.

disease alleles:
Ascertainment bias can create the illusion of genetic health disparities: https://www.biorxiv.org/content/early/2017/09/28/195768
study  genetics  regularizer  genetic-load  sapiens  europe  africa  comparison  world  recent-selection  org:nat  pop-structure  null-result  pop-diff  multi  evolution  roots  gnxp  scitariat  commentary  summary  migration  gene-drift  long-short-run  bio  preprint  🌞  debate  hmm  idk  disease  genomics  bioinformatics  spreading  west-hunter  antiquity  eden 
january 2017 by nhaliday
Bestiary of Behavioral Economics/Trust Game - Wikibooks, open books for an open world
In the trust game, like the ultimatum game and the dictator game, there are two participants that are anonymously paired. Both of these individuals are given some quantity of money. The first individual, or player, is told that he must send some amount of his money to an anonymous second player, though the amount sent may be zero. The first player is also informed that whatever he sends will be tripled by the experimenter. So, when the first player chooses a value, the experimenter will take it, triple it, and give that money to the second player. The second player is then told to make a similar choice – give some amount of the now-tripled money back to the first player, even if that amount is zero.

Even with perfect information about the mechanics of the game, the first player option to send nothing (and thus the second player option to send nothing back) is the Nash equilibrium for the game.

In the original Berg et al. experiment, thirty out of thirty-two game trials resulted in a violation of the results predicted by standard economic theory. In these thirty cases, first players sent money that averaged slightly over fifty percent of their original endowment.

Heritability of cooperative behavior in the trust game: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2268795/
- trust defined by the standard A->B->A trust game
- smallish h^2, small but nonzero shared environment, primarily non-shared environment (~70%)

The results of our mixed-effects Bayesian ACE analysis suggest that variation in how subjects play the trust game is partially accounted for by genetic differences (Tables 2 and ​and33 and Fig. 2). In the ACE model of trust, the heritability estimate is 20% (C.I. 3–38%) in the Swedish experiment and 10% (C.I. 4–21%) in the U.S. experiment. The ACE model of trust also demonstrates that environmental variation plays a role. In particular, unshared environmental variation is a much more significant source of phenotypic variation than genetic variation (e2 = 68% vs. c2 = 12% in Sweden and e2 = 82% vs. c2 = 8% in the U.S.; P < 0.0001 in both samples). In the ACE model of trustworthiness, heritability (h2) generates 18% (C.I. 8–30%) of the variance in the Swedish experiment and 17% (C.I. 5–32%) in the U.S. experiment. Once again, environmental differences play a role (e2 = 66% vs. c2 = 17% in Sweden and e2 = 71% vs. c2 = 12% in the U.S.; P < 0.0001 in both samples).

Trust and Gender: An Examination of Behavior and Beliefs in the Investment Game: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/222329553_Trust_and_Gender_An_Examination_of_Behavior_and_Beliefs_in_the_Investment_Game
How does gender influence trust, the likelihood of being trusted and the level of trustworthiness? We compare choices by men and women in the Investment Game and use questionnaire data to try to understand the motivations for the behavioral differences. We find that men trust more than women, and women are more trustworthy than men. The relationship between expected return and trusting behavior is stronger among men than women, suggesting that men view the interaction more strategically than women. Women felt more obligated both to trust and reciprocate, but the impact of obligation on behavior varies.

Genetic Influences Are Virtually Absent for Trust: http://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0093880
trust defined by poll

Over the past decades, numerous twin studies have revealed moderate to high heritability estimates for individual differences in a wide range of human traits, including cognitive ability, psychiatric disorders, and personality traits. Even factors that are generally believed to be environmental in nature have been shown to be under genetic control, albeit modest. Is such heritability also present in _social traits that are conceptualized as causes and consequences of social interactions_ or in other ways strongly shaped by behavior of other people? Here we examine a population-based sample of 1,012 twins and relatives. We show that the genetic influence on generalized trust in other people (trust-in-others: h2 = 5%, ns), and beliefs regarding other people’s trust in the self (trust-in-self: h2 = 13%, ns), is virtually absent. As test-retest reliability for both scales were found to be moderate or high (r = .76 and r = .53, respectively) in an independent sample, we conclude that all variance in trust is likely to be accounted for by non-shared environmental influences.

Dutch sample

Generalized Trust: Four Lessons From Genetics and Culture: http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/0963721414552473
We share four basic lessons on trust: (a) Generalized trust is more a matter of culture than genetics; (b) trust is deeply rooted in social interaction experiences (that go beyond childhood), networks, and media; (c) people have too little trust in other people in general; and (d) it is adaptive to regulate a “healthy dose” of generalized trust.

Trust is heritable, whereas distrust is not: http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2017/06/13/1617132114
Notably, although both trust and distrust are strongly influenced by the individual’s unique environment, interestingly, trust shows significant genetic influences, whereas distrust does not. Rather, distrust appears to be primarily socialized, including influences within the family.

[ed.: All this is consistent with my intuition that moral behavior is more subject to cultural/"free will"-type influences.]
models  economics  behavioral-econ  decision-theory  wiki  reference  classic  minimum-viable  game-theory  decision-making  trust  GT-101  putnam-like  justice  social-capital  cooperate-defect  microfoundations  multi  study  psychology  social-psych  regularizer  environmental-effects  coordination  variance-components  europe  nordic  usa  🌞  🎩  anglo  biodet  objective-measure  sociology  behavioral-gen  poll  self-report  null-result  comparison  org:nat  chart  iteration-recursion  homo-hetero  intricacy 
december 2016 by nhaliday
Spatial Ability for STEM Domains: Aligning Over 50 Years of Cumulative Psychological Knowledge Solidifies Its Importance
https://www.psychologytoday.com/blog/finding-the-next-einstein/201105/is-spatial-intelligence-essential-innovation-and-can-we
1. "Compared to students in the control group, students in the training group showed larger improvements in spatial skills despite extremely high spatial skills prior to training."
2. "We found large gender differences in spatial skills prior to training, as many other researchers have. However, these gender differences were narrowed after training."
3. "Students in the training group had one-third of a letter grade higher GPA in a challenging calculus-based physics course."
4. "None of these training improvements lasted over eight to ten months."

I wonder if continuous training could be useful at all and provide any transfer

What Innovations Have We Already Lost?: The Importance of Identifying and Developing Spatial Talent: http://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-3-319-44385-0_6

Technical innovation and spatial ability: http://infoproc.blogspot.com/2013/07/technical-innovation-and-spatial-ability.html
The blobs in the figure above (click for larger version) represent subgroups of individuals who have published peer reviewed work in STEM, Humanities or Biomedical research, or (separately) have been awarded a patent. Units in the figure are SDs within the SMPY population.

Early spatial reasoning predicts later creativity and innovation, especially in STEM fields: https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2013/07/130715070347.htm
Confirming previous research, the data revealed that participants' mathematical and verbal reasoning scores on the SAT at age 13 predicted their scholarly publications and patents 30 years later.

But spatial ability at 13 yielded additional predictive power, suggesting that early spatial ability contributes in a unique way to later creative and scholarly outcomes, especially in STEM domains.
pdf  study  psychology  cog-psych  psychometrics  spatial  iq  psych-architecture  multi  news  org:lite  generalization  longitudinal  summary  gender  diversity  gender-diff  pop-diff  chart  scitariat  org:sci  intervention  null-result  effect-size  rhetoric  education  innovation  🔬  hsu  success  data  visualization  s-factor  science  creative  biodet  behavioral-gen  human-capital 
december 2016 by nhaliday
The Genetic Architecture of Quantitative Traits Cannot Be Inferred from Variance Component Analysis
Classical quantitative genetic analyses estimate additive and non-additive genetic and environmental components of variance from phenotypes of related individuals without knowing the identities of quantitative trait loci (QTLs). Many studies have found a large proportion of quantitative trait variation can be attributed to the additive genetic variance (VA), providing the basis for claims that non-additive gene actions are unimportant. In this study, we show that arbitrarily defined parameterizations of genetic effects seemingly consistent with non-additive gene actions can also capture the majority of genetic variation. This reveals a logical flaw in using the relative magnitudes of variance components to indicate the relative importance of additive and non-additive gene actions. We discuss the implications and propose that variance component analyses should not be used to infer the genetic architecture of quantitative traits.
study  genetics  QTL  methodology  variance-components  critique  gotchas  nonlinearity  regularizer  🌞  biodet  pro-rata  roots  null-result  bioinformatics 
december 2016 by nhaliday
Highlighting a Waste of Time, Bryan Caplan | EconLog | Library of Economics and Liberty
Garett Jones' top catchphrase is, "If only there were a vast empirical literature on X."  When you're well-aware of the vast empirical literature to which he's alluding, it's funny.  Whenever you discover a new-to-you vast empirical literature, though, it's humbling.  The world's packed with vast empirical literatures.  Anytime you open your mouth in earnest, you're probably running afoul of one of them. 
spearhead  cracker-econ  org:econlib  aphorism  social-science  education  study  summary  psychology  econotariat  evidence-based  intervention  null-result  input-output 
december 2016 by nhaliday
Male Bias in Distributions of Additive Genetic, Residual, and Phenotypic Variances of Shared Traits
To explore the correlation between additive genetic variance dimorphism and phenotypic dimorphism, we conducted a literature search. We targeted traits expressed in both sexes and excluded sex-limited traits. The mean difference between the sexes in additive genetic variance was not significantly different from 0. However, the distribution of the sexual difference in additive genetic variance had a significant male-biased skew. This pattern persists even after removing traits explicitly related to reproduction. Furthermore, male traits had more residual and phenotypic variance than homologous female traits (as measured by both the mean and the skew), and this difference was not necessarily due to the difference between sexual traits and nonsexual traits. We found _no evidence that sex chromosome system could explain sex differences in additive genetic, nonadditive genetic, or phenotypic variances_.
pdf  study  bio  genetics  male-variability  regularizer  gender  🌞  biodet  null-result  gender-diff  chart 
december 2016 by nhaliday
The Effectiveness of Political Assassinations - Schneier on Security
The data presented in this paper show that decapitation is not an effective counterterrorism strategy. While decapitation is effective in 17 percent of all cases, when compared to the overall rate of organizational decline, decapitated groups have a lower rate of decline than groups that have not had their leaders removed.
security  government  polisci  power  study  summary  evidence-based  realpolitik  terrorism  foreign-policy  intel  wonkish  descriptive  meta:war  tactics  coordination  leadership  intervention  null-result  stylized-facts  tradecraft  defense  maxim-gun  techtariat 
december 2016 by nhaliday
Sexual dimorphism of facial width-to-height ratio in human skulls and faces: A meta-analytical approach
Taken together, I found no reason to consider FWHR as a sexually dimorphic measure in skulls or faces, at least not universally, and so accounts based upon this assumption need rethinking if researchers are to explain the relationship between FWHR and behaviour.
study  evopsych  embodied  gender  sapiens  meta-analysis  regularizer  endocrine  null-result 
december 2016 by nhaliday
Exposure to exogenous estrogen through intake of commercial milk produced from pregnant cows - Maruyama - 2009 - Pediatrics International - Wiley Online Library
7 men, 6 children, 5 women
After the intake of cow milk, serum estrone (E1) and progesterone concentrations significantly increased, and serum luteinizing hormone, follicle-stimulating hormone and testosterone significantly decreased in men. Urine concentrations of E1, estradiol, estriol and pregnanediol significantly increased in all adults and children. In four out of five women, ovulation occurred during the milk intake, and the timing of ovulation was similar among the three menstrual cycles.

mice study w/ n=60: https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2016/08/160803124441.htm
study  hmm  hypochondria  food  embodied  🐸  multi  gavisti  model-organism  human-study  endocrine  mena4  news  org:sci  science-anxiety  sanctity-degradation  intervention  null-result  public-health 
december 2016 by nhaliday
Ideological Segregation Online and Offline
We find that ideological segregation of online news consumption is low in absolute terms, higher than the segregation of most offline news consumption, and significantly lower than the segregation of face-to-face interactions with neighbors, co-workers, or family members. We find no evidence that the Internet is becoming more segregated over time.
study  internet  politics  network-structure  society  tribalism  regularizer  polisci  🎩  contrarianism  community  ideology  polarization  sociology  null-result  schelling  wonkish  media  institutions  info-dynamics 
december 2016 by nhaliday
Y-chromosome crash | West Hunter
there probably wasn't vast reproductive inequality ("17 to 1! woah") in the Bronze Age, and there wouldn't have to be to explain observed genetic patterns

https://westhunt.wordpress.com/2014/06/26/kings-of-the-stone-age/
https://westhunt.wordpress.com/2014/08/30/we-three-kings/
https://westhunt.wordpress.com/2014/09/07/the-genghis-khan-effect/

comment on TFR gradients in Malthusian conditions: https://westhunt.wordpress.com/2015/03/21/y-chromosome-crash/#comment-67790
“By contrast, the average number of surviving children for the majority of men was probably somewhere between zero and one – despite that they were having sex and babies.”

Fuck me, that’s obviously ridiculous. In real life, take a peasant village in England: if your model were correct, you’d have surname turnover every couple of generations. But that didn’t happen.

Here’s a model that’s at least in the ballpark: there was some class differential in fitness. The poorest, landless laborers, had a TFR below replacement, but not by a tremendous amount: 1.6? Most peasants were close to break-even, upper farmers did better than break-even, Other groups were mostly too small in number or too urban (population sinks) to matter. Overall TFR was of course break-even over the moderately long haul, in a sloppy way, with occasional epidemics and crop failures.
west-hunter  sapiens  antiquity  regularizer  speculation  gavisti  explanation  thinking  🌞  sex  gender  male-variability  winner-take-all  inequality  pop-structure  science-anxiety  scitariat  nietzschean  sexuality  gender-diff  null-result  deep-materialism  EEA  history  multi  aDNA  archaeology  conquest-empire  china  asia  genetics  genomics  poast  fertility  medieval  britain  demographics  malthus  class  correlation  blowhards  traces 
november 2016 by nhaliday
PLOS ONE: Moderate Alcohol Use and Cardiovascular Disease from Mendelian Randomization
Low to moderate alcohol use among men had the expected effects on most CVD risk factors but not fasting glucose. Larger studies are needed to confirm the null associations with IHD, CVD and fasting glucose.
study  methodology  longevity  health  ethanol  cardio  cocktail  habit  long-term  epidemiology  intervention  endo-exo  null-result  public-health  mendel-randomization  endogenous-exogenous 
september 2016 by nhaliday
political analysis | West Hunter
Just to make things clear, most political reporters are morons, nearly as bad as sports reporters. Mostly ugly cheerleaders for their side, rather than analysts. Uninteresting.

how to analyze polls:

Who ever is ahead in the polls at the time of election is extremely likely to win. Talk about how Candidate X would have a ‘difficult path to 270 electoral votes’ when he’s up 2 points (for example), is pretty much horseshit. There are second-order considerations: you get more oomph per voter when the voter is in a small state, and you also want your votes distributed fairly evenly, so that you win states giving you a majority of electoral votes by a little rather than winning states giving you a minority of electoral votes by huge margins. Not that a candidate can do much about this, of course.

When you hear someone say that it’s really 50 state contests [ more if you think about Maine and Nebraska] , so you should pay attention to the state polls, not the national polls: also horseshit. In some sense, it is true – but when your national polls go up, so do your state polls – almost all of them, in practice. On election day, or just before, you want to consider national polls rather than state polls, because they are almost always more recent, therefore more accurate.

When should you trust an outlier poll, rather than the average: when you want to be wrong.

Money doesn’t help much. Political consultants will tell you that it does, but then they get 15% of ad buys.

A decent political reporter would actually go out and talk to people that aren’t exactly like him. Apparently this no longer happens.

All of these rules have exceptions – but if you understand those [rare] exceptions and can apply them, you’re paying too much attention to politics.
thinking  politics  media  data  street-fighting  poll  contrarianism  len:short  west-hunter  objektbuch  metameta  checklists  sampling-bias  outliers  descriptive  social-choice  gilens-page  elections  scitariat  money  null-result  polisci  incentives  stylized-facts  metabuch  chart  top-n  hi-order-bits  track-record  wonkish  data-science  tetlock  meta:prediction  info-foraging  civic  info-dynamics  interests 
september 2016 by nhaliday
Physical Activity, Fitness, Glucose Homeostasis, and Brain Morphology in Twins
twin study (N=10) shows exercise increases grey matter, lowers body fat

[Rottensteiner et al, 2016]: http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov.sci-hub.cc/pubmed/27112070
N=10
Inactive twins had 31% more intra-abdominal fat than their active co-twins (mean difference 0.52 kg, 95% CI 0.12 to 0.91, P = 0.016), whereas the difference in subcutaneous abdominal fat was only 13% (P = 0.21) and 3% in body mass index (P = 0.28). Intraperitoneal fat mass was 41% higher among inactive twins compared to their active co-twins (mean difference 0.41 kg, 95% CI 0.11 to 0.70, P = 0.012). Dietary intake did not differ between co-twins.

same study: https://twitter.com/timothycbates/status/880326920491106304
Visible changes to body, but zero effect of exercise on mortality (p=.94) in MZ differences lifespan studies... #BGA2017
gwern  pdf  study  fitness  health  genetics  neuro  regularizer  🐸  fitsci  embodied-cognition  variance-components  🌞  twin-study  environmental-effects  c:**  hmm  biodet  virtu  oscillation  brain-scan  intervention  multi  obesity  twitter  social  commentary  scitariat  longevity  null-result  effect-size  piracy  europe  nordic  evidence-based  human-study  solid-study 
september 2016 by nhaliday
Physical activity in adulthood: genes and mortality : Scientific Reports
Observational studies report a strong inverse relationship between leisure-time physical activity and all-cause mortality. Despite suggestive evidence from population-based associations, scientists have not been able to show a beneficial effect of physical activity on the risk of death in controlled intervention studies among individuals who have been healthy at baseline. On the other hand, high cardiorespiratory fitness is known to be a strong predictor of reduced mortality, even more robust than physical activity level itself. Here, in both animals and/or human twins, we show that the same genetic factors influence physical activity levels, cardiorespiratory fitness, and risk of death. Previous observational follow-up studies in humans suggest that increasing fitness through physical activity levels could prolong life; however, our controlled interventional study with laboratory rats bred for low and high intrinsic fitness contrast with these findings. Also, we find no evidence for the suggested association using pairwise analysis among monozygotic twin pairs who are discordant in their physical activity levels. Based on both our animal and human findings, we propose that genetic pleiotropy might partly explain the frequently observed associations between high baseline physical activity and later reduced mortality in humans.

https://www.reddit.com/r/slatestarcodex/comments/52xt13/physical_activity_in_adulthood_genes_and_mortality/
study  longevity  aging  genetics  fitness  idk  fitsci  variance-components  genetic-correlation  twin-study  evidence-based  🌞  org:nat  environmental-effects  c:**  biodet  intervention  cardio  hmm  null-result  human-study  model-organism  solid-study  multi  reddit  social  commentary  ssc  gwern  ratty 
september 2016 by nhaliday
Democracy does not cause growth | Brookings Institution
64-page paper
Democracy & Growth: http://www.nber.org/papers/w4909
The favorable effects on growth include maintenance of the rule of law, free markets, small government consumption, and high human capital. Once these kinds of variables and the initial level of real per-capita GDP are held constant, the overall effect of democracy on growth is weakly negative. There is a suggestion of a nonlinear relationship in which democracy enhances growth at low levels of political freedom but depresses growth when a moderate level of freedom has already been attained.

The growth effect of democracy: Is it heterogenous and how can it be estimated∗: http://perseus.iies.su.se/~tpers/papers/cifar_paper_may16_07.pdf
In particular, we find an average negative effect on growth of leaving democracy on the order of −2 percentage points implying effects on income per capita as large as 45 percent over the 1960-2000 panel. Heterogenous characteristics of reforming and non-reforming countries appear to play an important role in driving these results.

Does democracy cause innovation? An empirical test of the popper hypothesis: http://www.sciencedirect.com.sci-hub.cc/science/article/pii/S0048733317300975
The results from the difference-in-differences method show that democracy itself has no direct positive effect on innovation measured with patent counts, patent citations and patent originality.

Benevolent Autocrats: https://williameasterly.files.wordpress.com/2011/09/benevolent-autocrats-easterly-draft.pdf
A large literature attributes this to the higher variance of growth rates under autocracy than under democracy. The literature offers alternative explanations for this stylized fact: (1) leaders don’t matter under democracy, but good and bad leaders under autocracy cause high and low growth, (2) leaders don’t matter under autocracy either, but good and bad autocratic systems cause greater extremes of high and low growth, or (3) democracy does better than autocracy at reducing variance from shocks from outside the political system. This paper details further the stylized facts to test these distinctions. Inconsistent with (1), the variance of growth within the terms of leaders swamps the variance across leaders, and more so under autocracy than under democracy. Country effects under autocracy are also overwhelmed by within-country variance, inconsistent with (2). Explanation (3) fits the stylized facts the best of the three alternatives.

Political Institutions, Size of Government and Redistribution: An empirical investigation: http://www.lse.ac.uk/internationalDevelopment/pdf/WP/WP89.pdf
Results show that the stronger democratic institutions are, the lower is government size and the higher the redistributional capacity of the state. Political competition exercises the strongest and most robust effect on the two variables.

https://twitter.com/GarettJones/status/899466295170801664
https://archive.is/sPFII
Fits the high-variance theory of autocracies:
More miracles, more disasters. And there's a lot of demand for miracles.

Measuring the ups and downs of governance: https://www.brookings.edu/blog/future-development/2017/09/22/measuring-the-ups-and-downs-of-governance/
Figure 2: Voice and Accountability and Government Effectiveness, 2016
https://twitter.com/whyvert/status/917444456386666497
https://archive.is/EBQlD
Georgia, Japan, Rwanda, and Serbia ↑ Gov Effectiveness; Indonesia, Tunisia, Liberia, Serbia, and Nigeria ↑ Voice and Accountability.

The logic of hereditary rule: theory and evidence: http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/69615/
Hereditary leadership has been an important feature of the political landscape throughout history. This paper argues that hereditary leadership is like a relational contract which improves policy incentives. We assemble a unique dataset on leaders between 1874 and 2004 in which we classify them as hereditary leaders based on their family history. The core empirical finding is that economic growth is higher in polities with hereditary leaders but only if executive constraints are weak. Moreover, this holds across of a range of specifications. The finding is also mirrored in policy outcomes which affect growth. In addition, we find that hereditary leadership is more likely to come to an end when the growth performance under the incumbent leader is poor.

I noted this when the paper was a working paper, but non-hereditary polities with strong contraints have higher growth rates.
study  announcement  polisci  economics  macro  government  policy  contrarianism  hmm  econometrics  counterfactual  alt-inst  institutions  new-religion  thiel  political-econ  stylized-facts  🎩  group-level  longitudinal  c:**  2016  summary  realpolitik  wonkish  mostly-modern  democracy  org:ngo  ideology  definite-planning  social-choice  nascent-state  chart  madisonian  antidemos  cynicism-idealism  kumbaya-kult  whiggish-hegelian  multi  pdf  effect-size  authoritarianism  growth-econ  econ-metrics  wealth-of-nations  wealth  innovation  null-result  endo-exo  leviathan  civil-liberty  property-rights  capitalism  markets  human-capital  curvature  piracy  easterly  bias-variance  moments  outcome-risk  redistribution  welfare-state  white-paper  natural-experiment  correlation  history  cold-war  twitter  social  commentary  spearhead  econotariat  garett-jones  backup  gibbon  counter-revolution  data  visualization  plots  trends  marginal  scitariat  hive-mind  inequality  egalitarianism-hierarchy  world  developing-world  convexity-curvature  endogeno 
september 2016 by nhaliday
Genetic Relations Among Procrastination, Impulsivity, and Goal-Management Ability: Implications for the Evolutionary Origin of Procrastination : slatestarcodex
First, both procrastination and impulsivity were moderately heritable (46% and 49%, respectively). Second, although the two traits were separable at the phenotypic level (r=.65), they were not separable at the genetic level (rg=1.0). Finally, variation in goal-management ability accounted for much of this shared genetic variation. These results suggest that procrastination and impulsivity are linked primarily through genetic influences on the ability to use their high-priority goals effectively to regulate their action.

An Investigation of Genetic and Environmental Influences Across The Distribution of Self-Control: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/316292004_An_Investigation_of_Genetic_and_Environmental_Influences_Across_The_Distribution_of_Self-Control
Subsequent biometric quantile regression models revealed that genetic influences on self-control were maximized in the 50th and 60th percentiles and minimized in the tails of the distribution. Shared environmental influences were nonsignificant at all examined quantiles of self-control with only one exception.

The Heritability of Self-Control: a Meta-Analysis: https://sci-hub.tw/10.1016/j.neubiorev.2019.02.012
The aim of this study was to perform a meta-analysis to provide a quantitative overview of the heritability of self-control. A systematic search resulted in 31 included studies, 17 reporting on individual samples, based on a sample size of >30,000 twins, published between 1997 and 2018. Our results revealed an overall monozygotic twin correlation of .58, and an overall dizygotic twin correlation of .28, resulting in a heritability estimate of 60%. The heritability of self-control did not vary across gender or age. The heritability did differ across informants, with stronger heritability estimates based on parent report versus self-report or observations.

...

The MZ correlation was twice as large as the DZ correlation, indicating little to no evidence for shared environmental effects. Rather, these results suggest that environmental effects on self-control, that explain 40% of the variance, are unique to individuals. This is in line with the standardized variance estimates reported by the studies, where76% of the studies reported no or very little influence of the shared environment on the variance in self-control.
reddit  commentary  akrasia  genetics  cog-psych  psychology  gwern  discipline  ssc  ratty  variance-components  twin-study  genetic-correlation  study  correlation  aversion  decision-making  the-monster  biodet  🌞  self-control  focus  inhibition  procrastination  behavioral-gen  multi  environmental-effects  curvature  null-result  convexity-curvature  piracy  pdf  meta-analysis 
august 2016 by nhaliday
A Meta-Analysis of Blood Glucose Effects on Human Decision Making
mixed evidence for ego-depletion:
We did not find a uniform influence of blood glucose on decision making. Instead, we found that low levels of blood glucose increase the willingness to pay and willingness to work when a situation is food related, but decrease willingness to pay and work in all other situations. Low levels of blood glucose increase the future discount rate for food; that is, decision makers become more impatient, and to a lesser extent increase the future discount rate for money. Low levels of blood glucose also increase the tendency to make more intuitive rather than deliberate decisions. However, this effect was only observed in situations unrelated to food.
http://daniellakens.blogspot.nl/2017/07/impossibly-hungry-judges.html
psychology  productivity  regularizer  study  meta-analysis  pdf  cog-psych  field-study  c:***  time-preference  discipline  values  decision-making  stamina  embodied-cognition  neuro-nitgrit  replication  null-result  ego-depletion  neuro  food  self-control  solid-study  multi  street-fighting  critique  scitariat 
july 2016 by nhaliday
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