nhaliday + idk   171

Fermi paradox - Wikipedia
Rare Earth hypothesis: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rare_Earth_hypothesis
Fine-tuned Universe: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fine-tuned_Universe
something to keep in mind:
Puddle theory is a term coined by Douglas Adams to satirize arguments that the universe is made for man.[54][55] As stated in Adams' book The Salmon of Doubt:[56]
Imagine a puddle waking up one morning and thinking, “This is an interesting world I find myself in, an interesting hole I find myself in, fits me rather neatly, doesn't it? In fact, it fits me staggeringly well, must have been made to have me in it!” This is such a powerful idea that as the sun rises in the sky and the air heats up and as, gradually, the puddle gets smaller and smaller, it's still frantically hanging on to the notion that everything's going to be all right, because this World was meant to have him in it, was built to have him in it; so the moment he disappears catches him rather by surprise. I think this may be something we need to be on the watch out for.
article  concept  paradox  wiki  reference  fermi  anthropic  space  xenobio  roots  speculation  ideas  risk  threat-modeling  civilization  nihil  🔬  deep-materialism  new-religion  futurism  frontier  technology  communication  simulation  intelligence  eden  war  nuclear  deterrence  identity  questions  multi  explanans  physics  theos  philosophy  religion  chemistry  bio  hmm  idk  degrees-of-freedom  lol  troll  existence 
january 2018 by nhaliday
Christianity in China | Council on Foreign Relations
projected to outpace CCP membership soon

This fascinating map shows the new religious breakdown in China: http://www.businessinsider.com/new-religious-breakdown-in-china-14

Map Showing the Distribution of Christians in China: http://www.epm.org/resources/2010/Oct/18/map-showing-distribution-christians-china/

Christianity in China: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christianity_in_China
Accurate data on Chinese Christians is hard to access. According to the most recent internal surveys there are approximately 31 million Christians in China today (2.3% of the total population).[5] On the other hand, some international Christian organizations estimate there are tens of millions more, which choose not to publicly identify as such.[6] The practice of religion continues to be tightly controlled by government authorities.[7] Chinese over the age of 18 are only permitted to join officially sanctioned Christian groups registered with the government-approved Protestant Three-Self Church and China Christian Council and the Chinese Patriotic Catholic Church.[8]

In Xi we trust - Is China cracking down on Christianity?: http://www.dw.com/en/in-xi-we-trust-is-china-cracking-down-on-christianity/a-42224752A

In China, Unregistered Churches Are Driving a Religious Revolution: https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2017/04/china-unregistered-churches-driving-religious-revolution/521544/

Cracks in the atheist edifice: https://www.economist.com/news/briefing/21629218-rapid-spread-christianity-forcing-official-rethink-religion-cracks

Jesus won’t save you — President Xi Jinping will, Chinese Christians told: https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2017/11/14/jesus-wont-save-you-president-xi-jinping-will-chinese-christians-told/

http://www.sixthtone.com/news/1001611/noodles-for-the-messiah-chinas-creative-christian-hymns

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-pope-china-exclusive/exclusive-china-vatican-deal-on-bishops-ready-for-signing-source-idUSKBN1FL67U
Catholics in China are split between those in “underground” communities that recognize the pope and those belonging to a state-controlled Catholic Patriotic Association where bishops are appointed by the government in collaboration with local Church communities.

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-42914029
The underground churches recognise only the Vatican's authority, whereas the Chinese state churches refuse to accept the authority of the Pope.

There are currently about 100 Catholic bishops in China, with some approved by Beijing, some approved by the Vatican and, informally, many now approved by both.

...

Under the agreement, the Vatican would be given a say in the appointment of future bishops in China, a Vatican source told news agency Reuters.

For Beijing, an agreement with the Vatican could allow them more control over the country's underground churches.

Globally, it would also enhance China's prestige - to have the world's rising superpower engaging with one of the world's major religions.

Symbolically, it would the first sign of rapprochement between China and the Catholic church in more than half a century.

The Vatican is the only European state that maintains formal diplomatic relations with Taiwan. It is currently unclear if an agreement between China and the Vatican would affect this in any way.

What will this mean for the country's Catholics?

There are currently around 10 million Roman Catholics in China.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/china-vatican-deal-on-bishops-reportedly-ready-for-signing/2018/02/01/2adfc6b2-0786-11e8-b48c-b07fea957bd5_story.html

http://www.catholicherald.co.uk/news/2018/02/06/china-is-the-best-implementer-of-catholic-social-doctrine-says-vatican-bishop/
The chancellor of the Pontifical Academy of Social Sciences praised the 'extraordinary' Communist state

“Right now, those who are best implementing the social doctrine of the Church are the Chinese,” a senior Vatican official has said.

Bishop Marcelo Sánchez Sorondo, chancellor of the Pontifical Academy of Social Sciences, praised the Communist state as “extraordinary”, saying: “You do not have shantytowns, you do not have drugs, young people do not take drugs”. Instead, there is a “positive national conscience”.

The bishop told the Spanish-language edition of Vatican Insider that in China “the economy does not dominate politics, as happens in the United States, something Americans themselves would say.”

Bishop Sánchez Sorondo said that China was implementing Pope Francis’s encyclical Laudato Si’ better than many other countries and praised it for defending Paris Climate Accord. “In that, it is assuming a moral leadership that others have abandoned”, he added.

...

As part of the diplomacy efforts, Bishop Sánchez Sorondo visited the country. “What I found was an extraordinary China,” he said. “What people don’t realise is that the central value in China is work, work, work. There’s no other way, fundamentally it is like St Paul said: he who doesn’t work, doesn’t eat.”

China reveals plan to remove ‘foreign influence’ from Catholic Church: http://catholicherald.co.uk/news/2018/06/02/china-reveals-plan-to-remove-foreign-influence-from-catholic-church1/

China, A Fourth Rome?: http://thermidormag.com/china-a-fourth-rome/
As a Chinaman born in the United States, I find myself able to speak to both places and neither. By accidents of fortune, however – or of providence, rather – I have identified more with China even as I have lived my whole life in the West. English is my third language, after Cantonese and Mandarin, even if I use it to express my intellectually most complex thoughts; and though my best of the three in writing, trained by the use of Latin, it is the vehicle of a Chinese soul. So it is in English that for the past year I have memed an idea as unconventional as it is ambitious, unto the Europæans a stumbling-block, and unto the Chinese foolishness: #China4thRome.

This idea I do not attempt to defend rigorously, between various powers’ conflicting claims to carrying on the Roman heritage; neither do I intend to claim that Moscow, which has seen itself as a Third Rome after the original Rome and then Constantinople, is fallen. Instead, I think back to the division of the Roman empire, first under Diocletian’s Tetrarchy and then at the death of Theodosius I, the last ruler of the undivided Roman empire. In the second partition, at the death of Theodosius, Arcadius became emperor of the East, with his capital in Constantinople, and Honorius emperor of the West, with his capital in Milan and then Ravenna. That the Roman empire did not stay uniformly strong under a plurality of emperors is not the point. What is significant about the administrative division of the Roman empire among several emperors is that the idea of Rome can be one even while its administration is diverse.

By divine providence, the Christian religion – and through it, Rome – has spread even through the bourgeois imperialism of the 19th and 20th centuries. Across the world, the civil calendar of common use is that of Rome, reckoned from 1 January; few places has Roman law left wholly untouched. Nevertheless, never have we observed in the world of Roman culture an ethnogenetic pattern like that of the Chinese empire as described by the prologue of Luo Guanzhong’s Romance of the Three Kingdoms 三國演義: ‘The empire, long divided, must unite; long united, must divide. Thus it has ever been.’1 According to classical Chinese cosmology, the phrase rendered the empire is more literally all under heaven 天下, the Chinese œcumene being its ‘all under heaven’ much as a Persian proverb speaks of the old Persian capital of Isfahan: ‘Esfahān nesf-e jahān ast,’ Isfahan is half the world. As sociologist Fei Xiaotong describes it in his 1988 Tanner Lecture ‘Plurality and Unity in the Configuration of the Chinese People’,

...

And this Chinese œcumene has united and divided for centuries, even as those who live in it have recognized a fundamental unity. But Rome, unlike the Chinese empire, has lived on in multiple successor polities, sometimes several at once, without ever coming back together as one empire administered as one. Perhaps something of its character has instead uniquely suited it to being the spirit of a kind of broader world empire. As Dante says in De Monarchia, ‘As the human race, then, has an end, and this end is a means necessary to the universal end of nature, it follows that nature must have the means in view.’ He continues,

If these things are true, there is no doubt but that nature set apart in the world a place and a people for universal sovereignty; otherwise she would be deficient in herself, which is impossible. What was this place, and who this people, moreover, is sufficiently obvious in what has been said above, and in what shall be added further on. They were Rome and her citizens or people. On this subject our Poet [Vergil] has touched very subtly in his sixth book [of the Æneid], where he brings forward Anchises prophesying in these words to Aeneas, father of the Romans: ‘Verily, that others shall beat out the breathing bronze more finely, I grant you; they shall carve the living feature in the marble, plead causes with more eloquence, and trace the movements of the heavens with a rod, and name the rising stars: thine, O Roman, be the care to rule the peoples with authority; be thy arts these, to teach men the way of peace, to show mercy to the subject, and to overcome the proud.’ And the disposition of place he touches upon lightly in the fourth book, when he introduces Jupiter speaking of Aeneas to Mercury in this fashion: ‘Not such a one did his most beautiful mother promise to us, nor for this twice rescue him from Grecian arms; rather was he to be the man to govern Italy teeming with empire and tumultuous with war.’ Proof enough has been given that the Romans were by nature ordained for sovereignty. Therefore the Roman … [more]
org:ngo  trends  foreign-policy  china  asia  hmm  idk  religion  christianity  theos  anomie  meaningness  community  egalitarianism-hierarchy  protestant-catholic  demographics  time-series  government  leadership  nationalism-globalism  org:data  comparison  sinosphere  civic  the-bones  power  great-powers  thucydides  multi  maps  data  visualization  pro-rata  distribution  geography  within-group  wiki  reference  article  news  org:lite  org:biz  islam  buddhism  org:euro  authoritarianism  antidemos  leviathan  regulation  civil-liberty  chart  absolute-relative  org:mag  org:rec  org:anglo  org:foreign  music  culture  gnon  org:popup  🐸  memes(ew)  essay  rhetoric  conquest-empire  flux-stasis  spreading  paradox  analytical-holistic  tradeoffs  solzhenitsyn  spengler  nietzschean  europe  the-great-west-whale  occident  orient  literature  big-peeps  history  medieval  mediterranean  enlightenment-renaissance-restoration-reformation  expansionism  early-modern  society  civilization  world  MENA  capital  capitalism  innovation  race  alien-character  optimat 
january 2018 by nhaliday
Why do stars twinkle?
According to many astronomers and educators, twinkle (stellar scintillation) is caused by atmospheric structure that works like ordinary lenses and prisms. Pockets of variable temperature - and hence index of refraction - randomly shift and focus starlight, perceived by eye as changes in brightness. Pockets also disperse colors like prisms, explaining the flashes of color often seen in bright stars. Stars appear to twinkle more than planets because they are points of light, whereas the twinkling points on planetary disks are averaged to a uniform appearance. Below, figure 1 is a simulation in glass of the kind of turbulence structure posited in the lens-and-prism theory of stellar scintillation, shown over the Penrose tile floor to demonstrate the random lensing effects.

However appealing and ubiquitous on the internet, this popular explanation is wrong, and my aim is to debunk the myth. This research is mostly about showing that the lens-and-prism theory just doesn't work, but I also have a stellar list of references that explain the actual cause of scintillation, starting with two classic papers by C.G. Little and S. Chandrasekhar.
nibble  org:junk  space  sky  visuo  illusion  explanans  physics  electromag  trivia  cocktail  critique  contrarianism  explanation  waves  simulation  experiment  hmm  magnitude  atmosphere  roots  idk 
december 2017 by nhaliday
Overcoming Bias : Why Ethnicity, Class, & Ideology? 
Individual humans can be described via many individual features that are useful in predicting what they do. Such features include gender, age, personality, intelligence, ethnicity, income, education, profession, height, geographic location, and so on. Different features are more useful for predicting different kinds of behavior.

One kind of human behavior is coalition politics; we join together into coalitions within political and other larger institutions. People in the same coalition tend to have features in common, though which exact features varies by time and place. But while in principle the features that describe coalitions could vary arbitrarily by time and place, we in actual fact see more consistent patterns.

...

You might be right about small scale coalitions, such as cliques, gangs, and clubs. And you might even be right about larger scale political coalitions in the ancient world. But you’d be wrong about our larger scale political coalitions today. While there are often weak correlations with such features, larger scale political coalitions are not mainly based on the main individual features of gender, age, etc. Instead, they are more often based on ethnicity, class, and “political ideology” preferences. While ideology is famously difficult to characterize, and it does vary by time and place, it is also somewhat consistent across time and space.
ratty  hanson  speculation  ideas  questions  hmm  idk  politics  polisci  ideology  coalitions  anthropology  sociology  coordination  tribalism  properties  things  phalanges  roots  demographics  race  class  curiosity  stylized-facts  impetus  organizing  interests  hari-seldon  sociality  cybernetics 
august 2017 by nhaliday
Kinship Systems, Cooperation and the Evolution of Culture
In the data, societies with loose ancestral kinship ties cooperate and trust broadly, which is apparently sustained through a belief in moralizing gods, universally applicable moral principles, feelings of guilt, and large-scale institutions. Societies with a historically tightly knit kinship structure, on the other hand, exhibit strong in-group favoritism: they cheat on and are distrusting of out-group members, but readily support in-group members in need. This cooperation scheme is enforced by moral values of in-group loyalty, conformity to tight social norms, emotions of shame, and strong local institutions.

Henrich, Joseph, The Secret of Our Success: How Culture is Driving Human Evolution,
Domesticating Our Species, and Making Us Smarter, Princeton University Press, 2015.
—, W.E.I.R.D People: How Westerners became Individualistic, Self-Obsessed, Guilt-Ridden,
Analytic, Patient, Principled and Prosperous, Princeton University Press, n.d.
—, Jean Ensminger, Richard McElreath, Abigail Barr, Clark Barrett, Alexander Bolyanatz, Juan Camilo Cardenas, Michael Gurven, Edwins Gwako, Natalie Hen- rich et al., “Markets, Religion, Community Size, and the Evolution of Fairness and Punishment,” Science, 2010, 327 (5972), 1480–1484.

...

—, —, Will M. Gervais, Aiyana K. Willard, Rita A. McNamara, Edward Slingerland, and Joseph Henrich, “The Cultural Evolution of Prosocial Religions,” Behavioral and Brain Sciences, 2016, 39, e1.

...

Purzycki, Benjamin Grant, Coren Apicella, Quentin D. Atkinson, Emma Cohen, Rita Anne McNamara, Aiyana K. Willard, Dimitris Xygalatas, Ara Norenzayan, and Joseph Henrich, “Moralistic Gods, Supernatural Punishment and the Expansion of Human Sociality,” Nature, 2016.

Table 1 summarizes
Figure 1 has map of kinship tightness
Figure 2 has cheating and in-group vs. out-group
Table 2 has regression
Figure 3 has univeralism and shame-guilt
Figure 4 has individualism-collectivism/conformity
Table 4 has radius of trust, Table 5 same for within-country variation (ethnic)
Tables 7 and 8 do universalism

Haidt moral foundations:
In line with the research hypothesis discussed in Section 3, the analysis employs two dependent variables, i.e., (i) the measure of in-group loyalty, and (ii) an index of the importance of communal values relative to the more universal (individualizing) ones. That is, the hypothesis is explicitly not about some societies being more or less moral than others, but merely about heterogeneity in the relative importance that people attach to structurally different types of values. To construct the index, I compute the first principal component of fairness / reciprocity, harm / care, in-group / loyalty, and respect /authority. The resulting score endogenously has the appealing property that – in line with the research hypothesis – it loads positively on the first two values and negatively on the latter two, with roughly equal weights, see Appendix F for details.²⁴I compute country-level scores by averaging responses by country of residence of respondents. Importantly, in Enke (2017) I document that – in a nationally representative sample of Americans – this same index of moral communalism is strongly correlated with individuals’ propensity to favor their local community over society as a whole in issues ranging from taxation and redistribution to donations and volunteering. Thus, there is evidence that the index of communal moral values captures economically meaningful behavioral heterogeneity.

The coevolution of kinship systems, cooperation, and culture: http://voxeu.org/article/kinship-cooperation-and-culture
- Benjamin Enke

pretty short

good linguistics reference cited in this paper:
On the biological and cultural evolution of shame: Using internet search tools to weight values in many cultures: https://arxiv.org/abs/1401.1100v2
Here we explore the relative importance between shame and guilt by using Google Translate [>_>...] to produce translation for the words "shame", "guilt", "pain", "embarrassment" and "fear" to the 64 languages covered. We also explore the meanings of these concepts among the Yanomami, a horticulturist hunter-gatherer tribe in the Orinoquia. Results show that societies previously described as “guilt societies” have more words for guilt than for shame, but *the large majority*, including the societies previously described as “shame societies”, *have more words for shame than for guilt*. Results are consistent with evolutionary models of shame which predict a wide scatter in the relative importance between guilt and shame, suggesting that cultural evolution of shame has continued the work of biological evolution, and that neither provides a strong adaptive advantage to either shame or guilt [? did they not just say that most languages favor shame?].

...

The roots of the word "shame" are thought to derive from an older word meaning "to cover". The emotion of shame has clear physiological consequences. Its facial and corporal expression is a human universal, as was recognized already by Darwin (5). Looking away, reddening of the face, sinking the head, obstructing direct view, hiding the face and downing the eyelids, are the unequivocal expressions signaling shame. Shame might be an emotion specific to humans, as no clear description of it is known for animals.
...
Classical Greek philosophers, such as Aristotle, explicitly mention shame as a key element in building society.

Guilt is the emotion of being responsible for the commission of an offense, however, it seems to be distinct from shame. Guilt says “what I did was not good”, whereas shame says “I am no good"(2). For Benedict (1), shame is a violation of cultural or social values, while guilt feelings arise from violations of one's internal values.

...

Unobservable emotions such as guilt may be of value to the receiver but constitutes in economy “private information”. Thus, in economic and biological terms, adaptive pressures acting upon the evolution of shame differ from those acting on that of guilt.

Shame has evolutionary advantages to both individual and society, but the lack ofshame also has evolutionary advantages as it allows cheating and thus benefiting from public goods without paying the costs of its build up.

...

Dodds (7) coined the distinction between guilt and shame cultures and postulated that in Greek cultural history, shame as a social value was displaced, at least in part, by guilt in guiding moral behavior.
...
"[...]True guilt cultures rely on an internalized conviction of sin as the enforcer of good behavior, not, as shame cultures do, on external sanctions. Guilt cultures emphasize punishment and forgiveness as ways of restoring the moral order; shame cultures stress self-denial and humility as ways of restoring the social order”.

...

For example, Wikipedia is less error prone than Encyclopedia Britannica (12, 17); and Google Translate is as accurate as more traditional methods (35).

Table 1, Figure 1

...

This regression is close to a proportional line of two words for shame for each word for guilt.

...

For example, in the case of Chinese, no overlap between the five concepts is reported using Google Translate in Figure 1. Yet, linguistic-conceptual studies of guilt and shame revealed an important overlap between several of these concepts in Chinese (29).

...

Our results using Google Translate show no overlap between Guilt and Shame in any of the languages studied.
...
[lol:] Examples of the context when they feel “kili” are: a tiger appears in the forest; you kill somebody from another community; your daughter is going to die; everybody looks at your underwear; you are caught stealing; you soil your pants while among others; a doctor gives you an injection; you hit your wife and others find out; you are unfaithful to your husband and others find out; you are going to be hit with a machete.

...

Linguistic families do not aggregate according to the relationship of the number of synonyms for shame and guilt (Figure 3).

...

The ratios are 0.89 and 2.5 respectively, meaning a historical transition from guilt-culture in Latin to shame-culture in Italian, suggesting a historical development that is inverse to that suggested byDodds for ancient to classical Greek. [I hope their Latin corpus doesn't include stuff from Catholics...]

Joe Henrich presentation: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f-unD4ZzWB4

relevant video:
Johnny Cash - God's Gonna Cut You Down: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eJlN9jdQFSc

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Guilt_society
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shame_society
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Guilt-Shame-Fear_spectrum_of_cultures
this says Dems more guilt-driven but Peter Frost says opposite here (and matches my perception of the contemporary breakdown both including minorities and focusing only on whites): https://pinboard.in/u:nhaliday/b:9b75881f6861
http://honorshame.com/global-map-of-culture-types/

this is an amazing paper:
The Origins of WEIRD Psychology: https://psyarxiv.com/d6qhu/
Recent research not only confirms the existence of substantial psychological variation around the globe but also highlights the peculiarity of populations that are Western, Educated, Industrialized, Rich and Democratic (WEIRD). We propose that much of this variation arose as people psychologically adapted to differing kin-based institutions—the set of social norms governing descent, marriage, residence and related domains. We further propose that part of the variation in these institutions arose historically from the Catholic Church’s marriage and family policies, which contributed to the dissolution of Europe’s traditional kin-based institutions, leading eventually to the predominance of nuclear families and impersonal institutions. By combining data on 20 psychological outcomes with historical measures of both kinship and Church exposure, we find support for these ideas in a comprehensive array of analyses across countries, among European regions and between individuals with … [more]
study  economics  broad-econ  pseudoE  roots  anthropology  sociology  culture  cultural-dynamics  society  civilization  religion  theos  kinship  individualism-collectivism  universalism-particularism  europe  the-great-west-whale  orient  integrity  morality  ethics  trust  institutions  things  pdf  piracy  social-norms  cooperate-defect  patho-altruism  race  world  developing-world  pop-diff  n-factor  ethnography  ethnocentrism  🎩  🌞  s:*  us-them  occident  political-econ  altruism  self-interest  books  todo  multi  old-anglo  big-peeps  poetry  aristos  homo-hetero  north-weingast-like  maps  data  modernity  tumblr  social  ratty  gender  history  iron-age  mediterranean  the-classics  christianity  speculation  law  public-goodish  tribalism  urban  china  asia  sinosphere  decision-making  polanyi-marx  microfoundations  open-closed  alien-character  axelrod  eden  growth-econ  social-capital  values  phalanges  usa  within-group  group-level  regional-scatter-plots  comparison  psychology  social-psych  behavioral-eco 
june 2017 by nhaliday
Double world GDP | Open Borders: The Case
Economics and Emigration: Trillion-Dollar Bills on the Sidewalk?: https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/jep.25.3.83
https://openborders.info/innovation-case/
https://www.economist.com/news/world-if/21724907-yes-it-would-be-disruptive-potential-gains-are-so-vast-objectors-could-be-bribed
The Openness-Equality Trade-Off in Global Redistribution: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2509305
https://www.wsj.com/articles/opening-our-borders-would-overwhelm-america-1492366053
Immigration, Justice, and Prosperity: http://quillette.com/2017/07/29/immigration-justice-prosperity/

Some Countries Are Much Richer Than Others. Is That Unjust?: http://quillette.com/2017/07/23/countries-much-richer-others-unjust/
But we shouldn’t automatically assume that wealth disparities across the world are unjust and that the developed world owes aid as a matter of justice. This is because the best way to make sense of the Great Divergence is that certain economic and political institutions, namely those that facilitated economic growth, arose in some countries and not others. Thus perhaps the benevolent among us should also try to encourage – by example rather than force – the development of such institutions in places where they do not exist.

An Argument Against Open Borders and Liberal Hubris: http://quillette.com/2017/08/27/argument-open-borders-liberal-hubris/
We do not have open borders but we are experiencing unprecedented demographic change. What progressives should remember is that civilisation is not a science laboratory. The consequences of failed experiments endure. That is the main virtue of gradual change; we can test new waters and not leap into their depths.

A Radical Solution to Global Income Inequality: Make the U.S. More Like Qatar: https://newrepublic.com/article/120179/how-reduce-global-income-inequality-open-immigration-policies

Why nation-states are good: https://aeon.co/essays/capitalists-need-the-nation-state-more-than-it-needs-them
The nation-state remains the best foundation for capitalism, and hyper-globalisation risks destroying it
- Dani Rodrik
Given the non-uniqueness of practices and institutions enabling capitalism, it’s not surprising that nation-states also resolve key social trade-offs differently. The world does not agree on how to balance equality against opportunity, economic security against innovation, health and environmental risks against technological innovation, stability against dynamism, economic outcomes against social and cultural values, and many other consequences of institutional choice. Developing nations have different institutional requirements than rich nations. There are, in short, strong arguments against global institutional harmonisation.
org:ngo  wonkish  study  summary  commentary  economics  growth-econ  policy  migration  econ-metrics  prediction  counterfactual  intervention  multi  news  org:rec  org:anglo  org:biz  nl-and-so-can-you  rhetoric  contrarianism  politics  reflection  usa  current-events  equilibrium  org:mag  org:popup  spearhead  institutions  hive-mind  wealth-of-nations  divergence  chart  links  innovation  entrepreneurialism  business  human-capital  regularizer  attaq  article  microfoundations  idk  labor  class  macro  insight  world  hmm  proposal  inequality  nationalism-globalism  developing-world  whiggish-hegelian  albion  us-them  tribalism  econotariat  cracker-econ  essay  big-peeps  unintended-consequences  humility  elite  vampire-squid  markets  capitalism  trade  universalism-particularism  exit-voice  justice  diversity  homo-hetero 
june 2017 by nhaliday
Haecceity - Wikipedia
Haecceity (/hɛkˈsiːɪti, hiːk-/; from the Latin haecceitas, which translates as "thisness") is a term from medieval scholastic philosophy, first coined by followers of Duns Scotus to denote a concept that he seems to have originated: the discrete qualities, properties or characteristics of a thing that make it a particular thing. Haecceity is a person's or object's thisness, the individualising difference between the concept "a man" and the concept "Socrates" (i.e., a specific person).[1] Haecceity is a literal translation of the equivalent term in Aristotle's Greek to ti esti (τὸ τί ἐστι)[2] or "the what (it) is."
jargon  philosophy  hmm  idk  wiki  reference  concept  conceptual-vocab 
june 2017 by nhaliday
[1705.08807] When Will AI Exceed Human Performance? Evidence from AI Experts
Researchers predict AI will outperform humans in many activities in the next ten years, such as translating languages (by 2024), writing high-school essays (by 2026), driving a truck (by 2027), working in retail (by 2031), writing a bestselling book (by 2049), and working as a surgeon (by 2053). Researchers believe there is a 50% chance of AI outperforming humans in all tasks in 45 years and of automating all human jobs in 120 years, with Asian respondents expecting these dates much sooner than North Americans.

https://www.reddit.com/r/slatestarcodex/comments/6dy6ex/arxiv_when_will_ai_exceed_human_performance/
study  preprint  science  meta:science  technology  ai  automation  labor  ai-control  risk  futurism  poll  expert  usa  asia  trends  hmm  idk  definite-planning  frontier  ideas  prediction  innovation  china  sinosphere  multi  reddit  social  commentary  ssc  speedometer  flux-stasis  ratty  expert-experience  org:mat  singularity  optimism  pessimism 
may 2017 by nhaliday
Sending Jobs Overseas
*The Great Convergence*: http://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2016/11/the-great-convergence.html

Richard Baldwin on the New Globalization: https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2018/04/the-new-globalization.html
To really understand how this changed the nature of globalization, consider a sports analogy. Suppose we have two football teams, one that needs a quarterback but has too many linebackers, and one that needs a linebacker but has too many quarterbacks. If they sit down and trade players, both teams win. It’s arbitrage in players. Each team gets rid of players they need less of and gets players they need more of. That’s the old globalization: exchange of goods.

Now let’s take a different kind of exchange, where the coach of the better team goes to the field of the worse team and starts training those players in the off-season. This is very good for the coach because he gets to sell his knowledge in two places. You can be sure that the quality of the league will rise, all the games will get more competitive, and the team that’s being trained up will enjoy the whole thing. But it’s not at all certain that the players of the better team will benefit from this exchange because the source of their advantage is now being traded.

In this analogy, the better team is, of course, the G7, and not surprisingly this has led to some resentment of globalization in those countries. The new globalization breaks the monopoly that G7 labor had on G7 know-how…

good reviews here:
The Great Convergence: Information Technology and the New Globalization: https://www.amazon.com/Great-Convergence-Information-Technology-Globalization/dp/067466048X
news  org:ngo  letters  essay  rhetoric  right-wing  nascent-state  politics  polisci  policy  economics  growth-econ  trade  world  nationalism-globalism  vampire-squid  developing-world  china  asia  ideology  democracy  populism  technocracy  usa  labor  compensation  contrarianism  capital  capitalism  britain  heavy-industry  unintended-consequences  hmm  idk  technology  internet  roots  chart  zeitgeist  europe  the-great-west-whale  books  summary  review  cost-benefit  automation  korea  india  latin-america  africa  egalitarianism-hierarchy  robust  human-capital  knowledge  density  regulation  micro  incentives  longform  government  rot  malaise  nl-and-so-can-you  sinosphere  expansionism  the-world-is-just-atoms  scale  paleocon  kumbaya-kult  madisonian  counter-revolution  modernity  convergence  class-warfare  multi  econotariat  marginal-rev  commentary  volo-avolo  heterodox  definite-planning  stagnation 
may 2017 by nhaliday
China Overtakes US in Scientific Articles, Robots, Supercomputers - The Unz Review
gnon  commentary  trends  usa  china  asia  comparison  sinosphere  frontier  technology  science  innovation  robotics  automation  latin-america  india  russia  scale  military  defense  foreign-policy  realpolitik  great-powers  kumbaya-kult  thucydides  multi  hsu  scitariat  heavy-industry  news  org:nat  org:sci  data  visualization  list  infographic  world  europe  EU  org:mag  dynamic  ranking  top-n  britain  anglo  japan  meta:science  anglosphere  database  germanic  org:biz  rhetoric  prediction  tech  labor  human-capital  education  higher-ed  money  compensation  idk  org:lite  expansionism  current-events  🔬  the-world-is-just-atoms  🎓  dirty-hands  org:rec  org:anglo  speedometer  track-record  time-series  monetary-fiscal  chart  quality 
may 2017 by nhaliday
Secular decline in testosterone levels - Rogue Health and Fitness
A Population-Level Decline in Serum Testosterone Levels in American Men: http://sci-hub.tw/10.1210/jc.2006-1375
Secular trends in sex hormones and fractures in men and women: http://www.eje-online.org/content/166/5/887.full.pdf
https://twitter.com/toad_spotted/status/984543033285898246
https://archive.is/dcruu
Small n and older sample, but interesting that while testosterone decreases have been large for men they’ve been even larger (in % terms) for women; wonder if this contributes to declining pregnancy and sexual frequency, rising depression.

https://www.labcorp.com/assets/11476
http://www.theamericanconservative.com/articles/sperm-killers-and-rising-male-infertility/
https://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/2017/jul/25/sperm-counts-among-western-men-have-halved-in-last-40-years-study
https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2017/08/most-men-in-the-us-and-europe-could-be-infertile-by-2060
Strangelove: https://youtu.be/N1KvgtEnABY?t=67

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/sperm-count-dropping-in-western-world/
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=14855796
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=14857588
People offering human-centric explanations like cell phones: Note also that the sperm quality of dogs has decreased 30% since 1988.

mendelian rand.:
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28448539
1 SD genetically instrumented increase in BMI was associated with a 0.25 SD decrease in serum testosterone
https://twitter.com/SilverVVulpes/status/857902555489341441

Ibuprofen linked to male infertility: study: https://nypost.com/2018/01/08/ibuprofen-linked-to-male-infertility-study/
http://www.pnas.org/content/115/4/E715.full

Tucker Carlson: "Men Seem To Be Becoming Less Male": https://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2018/03/08/tucker_carlson_men_seem_to_be_becoming_less_male.html
Carlson interviewed Dr. Jordan Peterson who blamed the "insidious" movement being driven by the "radical left" that teaches there a problem of "toxic masculinity." He said ideological policies focus on "de-emphasizing masculinity may be part of the problem."

...

Those are the numbers. They paint a very clear picture: American men are failing, in body, mind and spirit. This is a crisis. Yet our leaders pretend it’s not happening. They tell us the opposite is true: Women are victims, men are oppressors. To question that assumption is to risk punishment. Even as women far outpace men in higher education, virtually every college campus supports a women’s studies department, whose core goal is to attack male power. Our politicians and business leaders internalize and amplify that message. Men are privileged. Women are oppressed. Hire and promote and reward accordingly.

https://pinboard.in/u:nhaliday/b:bd7b0a50d741
But it also hints at an almost opposite take: average testosterone levels have been falling for decades, so at this point these businessmen would be the only “normal” (by 1950s standards) men out there, and everyone else would be unprecedently risk-averse and boring.
org:health  fitsci  health  endocrine  trends  public-health  science-anxiety  gender  commentary  multi  study  pdf  data  piracy  white-paper  gnon  news  org:mag  right-wing  fertility  dysgenics  drugs  psychiatry  stress  politics  government  hypochondria  idk  embodied  FDA  externalities  epidemiology  video  film  classic  org:lite  org:anglo  genetics  endo-exo  mendel-randomization  obesity  fitness  scitariat  🌞  medicine  correlation  intervention  causation  GWAS  environmental-effects  hn  org:sci  popsci  model-organism  embodied-cognition  hmm  org:davos  communism  memes(ew)  fluid  endogenous-exogenous  roots  explanans  org:local  summary  modernity  rot  org:nat  chart  the-bones  albion  canada  journos-pundits  philosophy  iq  coming-apart  malaise  gender-diff  attention  disease  opioids  death  interview  current-events  tv  higher-ed  labor  management  compensation  grad-school  law  twitter  social  backup  ratty  unaffiliated  yvain  ssc 
may 2017 by nhaliday
Typos | West Hunter
In a simple model, a given mutant has an equilibrium frequency μ/s, when μ is the mutation rate from good to bad alleles and s is the size of the selective disadvantage. To estimate the total impact of mutation at that locus, you multiply the frequency by the expected harm, s: which means that the fitness decrease (from effects at that locus) is just μ, the mutation rate. If we assume that these fitness effects are multiplicative, the total fitness decrease (also called ‘mutational load’) is approximately 1 – exp(-U), when U is where U=Σ2μ, the total number of new harmful mutations per diploid individual.

https://westhunt.wordpress.com/2012/10/17/more-to-go-wrong/

https://westhunt.wordpress.com/2012/07/13/sanctuary/
interesting, suggestive comment on Africa:
https://westhunt.wordpress.com/2012/07/13/sanctuary/#comment-3671
https://westhunt.wordpress.com/2012/07/14/too-darn-hot/
http://infoproc.blogspot.com/2012/07/rare-variants-and-human-genetic.html
https://westhunt.wordpress.com/2012/07/18/changes-in-attitudes/
https://westhunt.wordpress.com/2012/08/24/men-and-macaques/
I have reason to believe that few people understand genetic load very well, probably for self-referential reasons, but better explanations are possible.

One key point is that the amount of neutral variation is determined by the long-term mutational rate and population history, while the amount of deleterious variation [genetic load] is set by the selective pressures and the prevailing mutation rate over a much shorter time scale. For example, if you consider the class of mutations that reduce fitness by 1%, what matters is the past few thousand years, not the past few tens or hundreds of of thousands of years.

...

So, assuming that African populations have more neutral variation than non-African populations (which is well-established), what do we expect to see when we compare the levels of probably-damaging mutations in those two populations? If the Africans and non-Africans had experienced essentially similar mutation rates and selective pressures over the past few thousand years, we would expect to see the same levels of probably-damaging mutations. Bottlenecks that happened at the last glacial maximum or in the expansion out of Africa are irrelevant – too long ago to matter.

But we don’t. The amount of rare synonymous stuff is about 22% higher in Africans. The amount of rare nonsynonymous stuff (usually at least slightly deleterious) is 20.6% higher. The number of rare variants predicted to be more deleterious is ~21.6% higher. The amount of stuff predicted to be even more deleterious is ~27% higher. The number of harmful looking loss-of-function mutations (yet more deleterious) is 25% higher.

It looks as if the excess grows as the severity of the mutations increases. There is a scenario in which this is possible: the mutation rate in Africa has increased recently. Not yesterday, but, say, over the past few thousand years.

...

What is the most likely cause of such variations in the mutation rate? Right now, I’d say differences in average paternal age. We know that modest differences (~5 years) in average paternal age can easily generate ~20% differences in the mutation rate. Such between-population differences in mutation rates seem quite plausible, particularly since the Neolithic.
https://westhunt.wordpress.com/2016/04/10/bugs-versus-drift/
more recent: https://westhunt.wordpress.com/2017/06/06/happy-families-are-all-alike-every-unhappy-family-is-unhappy-in-its-own-way/#comment-92491
Probably not, but the question is complex: depends on the shape of the deleterious mutational spectrum [which we don’t know], ancient and recent demography, paternal age, and the extent of truncation selection in the population.
west-hunter  scitariat  discussion  bio  sapiens  biodet  evolution  mutation  genetics  genetic-load  population-genetics  nibble  stylized-facts  methodology  models  equilibrium  iq  neuro  neuro-nitgrit  epidemiology  selection  malthus  temperature  enhancement  CRISPR  genomics  behavioral-gen  multi  poast  africa  roots  pop-diff  ideas  gedanken  paternal-age  🌞  environment  speculation  gene-drift  longevity  immune  disease  parasites-microbiome  scifi-fantasy  europe  asia  race  migration  hsu  study  summary  commentary  shift  the-great-west-whale  nordic  intelligence  eden  long-short-run  debate  hmm  idk  explanans  comparison  structure  occident  mediterranean  geography  within-group  correlation  direction  volo-avolo  demographics  age-generation  measurement  data  applicability-prereqs  aging 
may 2017 by nhaliday
Will exercise save your wits? - The Unz Review
Tai Chi seems to do well, though the number of studies is smaller than other forms of exercise. The frequency of taking exercise shows a dose-response relationship, but less for intensity and duration and length, which is a little surprising. Moving about a bit every day seems the best policy. More socially active control groups seem almost as good as exercise, as does the sham exercise of stretching, so this is somewhat of a worry for the “exercise saves your wits” hypothesis.
albion  scitariat  commentary  study  summary  psychology  cog-psych  intervention  health  fitsci  fitness  null-result  hmm  idk  aging  iq  psych-architecture  public-health 
may 2017 by nhaliday
Why Are Chemical Weapons Different?
So what is it about chemical weapons that puts them in the same category? I've never seen anyone explain what it is. Getting killed by mustard gas is surely awful. But so is getting blown up by a bomb. Using one against your enemies gets you branded a war criminal, but using the other doesn't. The Aum Shinrikyo cult conducted a poison gas attack in the Tokyo subways in 1995, killing 13. No one could claim that because they used a chemical weapon, that attack was worse than, say, the 2005 bombings of public transport in London, in which 52 people died.

Tierney argues, "Powerful countries like the United States cultivate a taboo against using WMD partly because they have a vast advantage in conventional arms. We want to draw stark lines around acceptable and unacceptable kinds of warfare because the terrain that we carve out is strategically favorable." That may be part of the story, but it's more than just strategic—we want to define our means of warfare as ordinary and any other means as outside the bounds of humane behavior, less for practical advantage than to convince ourselves that our actions are moral and justified.
news  org:mag  biotech  arms  technology  hmm  idk  foreign-policy  war  iraq-syria  current-events  politics  maxim-gun 
april 2017 by nhaliday
What does Peter Thiel think of Bitcoin? - Quora
A: suitably bearish

or not?:
Peter Thiel’s Founders Fund Makes Monster Bet on Bitcoin: https://www.wsj.com/articles/peter-thiels-founders-fund-makes-big-bet-on-bitcoin-1514917433
Few mainstream investors have bought large sums of bitcoin, scared off by concerns about cybersecurity and liquidity
q-n-a  qra  thiel  barons  prediction  bitcoin  cryptocurrency  tech  business  multi  current-events  hmm  idk  nascent-state  monetary-fiscal  sulla 
march 2017 by nhaliday
“Neoliberalism” and “The Cathedral” are the Same Damn Thing – spottedtoad
https://spottedtoad.wordpress.com/2017/08/23/two-sided-markets-and-diversity/
https://twitter.com/tcjfs/status/888550038888214528
https://archive.is/BveDx
or.... maybe capital in the short run likes anarcho tyranny, big sclerotic capturable states, dumb pliant consumers, etc

https://twitter.com/tcjfs/status/910652855832457218
https://archive.is/PmyQU
The Wealth of Nations, Book I, Chapter XI, Part III

Adam Smith on why Capital ought to be scrupulously distrusted in politics:
The interest of the dealers, however, in any particular branch of trade or manufactures, is always in some respects different from, and even opposite to, that of the public. To widen the market and to narrow the competition, is always the interest of the dealers. To widen the market may frequently be agreeable enough to the interest of the public; but to narrow the competition must always be against it, and can serve only to enable the dealers, by raising their profits above what they naturally would be, to levy, for their own benefit, an absurd tax upon the rest of their fellow-citizens. The proposal of any new law or regulation of commerce which comes from this order, ought always to be listened to with great precaution, and ought never to be adopted till after having been long and carefully examined, not only with the most scrupulous, but with the most suspicious attention. It comes from an order of men, whose interest is never exactly the same with that of the public, who have generally an interest to deceive and even to oppress the public, and who accordingly have, upon many occasions, both deceived and oppressed it.

Roundworm Eyed Doll: Neoliberalism, Social Justice and Barbie's New Hair: http://roreiy.blogspot.com/2016/02/a-response-to-southwood-thesis.html

Corporate Leaders: Progressive Activists, Not Conservative Villains: http://www.nationalreview.com/article/445705/corporate-leaders-progressive-activists
The Market for Virtue: Why Companies like Qantas are Campaigning for Marriage Equality: http://quillette.com/2017/08/29/market-virtue-companies-like-qantas-campaigning-marriage-equality/
But companies aren’t being altruistic when they back causes like marriage equality. Research shows that executives pursue ethical behaviour because they think there is a business case for it. This is called the “market for virtue”, in which businesses aim to improve their public image or ward off regulation in exchange for ethical behaviour.

But there is little evidence that social responsibility initiatives necessarily result in positive outcomes for businesses. In fact, it may result in worse outcomes for society as a whole, as businesses put their resources behind causes that are already popular and ignore pressing issues such as inequality and stagnating wage growth.

https://twitter.com/menangahela/status/899281975898501120
its hard to disentangle the extent to which these things are done because they make them money
or because these values have become universal in the managerial caste from which they draw their leadership/upper echelon employees
https://twitter.com/ThomasHCrown/status/899653245450067968
Here is the essential difference in the models left and right must employ to publish: The left gets sponsors, we get scraps.

The Rise of Woke Capital: https://www.nytimes.com/2018/02/28/opinion/corporate-america-activism.html
There's a simple reason companies are becoming more publicly left-wing on social issues: http://www.businessinsider.com/why-companies-ditching-nra-delta-selling-guns-2018-2
The main reason that companies have been increasingly willing to take one side of hot-button social issues (the left-leaning side) is that's increasingly a good strategy to please customers and employees.

Partly this is because certain policy issues have disproportionately left-leaning polling. Gay rights are popular. Most of the gun regulations on offer in the current debate poll well, too.

But it's also because socially liberal segments of the public punch above their weight as potential customers (and, in some cases, as potential employees) for these companies.
ratty  unaffiliated  rhetoric  nl-and-so-can-you  managerial-state  westminster  culture-war  politics  capitalism  capital  current-events  nationalism-globalism  roots  madisonian  chart  identity-politics  idk  migration  multi  twitter  social  discussion  gnon  right-wing  speculation  incentives  anarcho-tyranny  corruption  crooked  hmm  google  drama  gender-diff  business  diversity  corporation  class-warfare  land  quotes  big-peeps  old-anglo  economics  political-econ  rent-seeking  markets  self-interest  cooperate-defect  institutions  law  regulation  competition  vampire-squid  elite  class  interests  lol  left-wing  wonkish  albion  clown-world  the-watchers  noblesse-oblige  news  org:mag  coalitions  barons  morality  leadership  ideology  trends  justice  stylized-facts  info-dynamics  commentary  🐸  management  media  internet  counter-revolution  mena4  propaganda  org:popup  impetus  polarization  org:rec  douthatish  compensation  demographics  org:biz  org:lite  civic  meaningness  cost-benefit  altruism  supply-demand  tradition 
march 2017 by nhaliday
There’s good eating on one of those | West Hunter
Recently, Y.-H. Percival Zhang and colleagues demonstrated a method of converting cellulose into starch and glucose. Zhang thinks that it can be scaled up into an effective industrial process, one that could produce a thousand calories of starch for less than a dollar from cellulosic waste. This would be a good thing. It’s not just that are 7 billion people – the problem is that we have hardly any food reserves (about 74 days at last report).

Prepare for Nuclear Winter: http://www.overcomingbias.com/2017/09/prepare-for-nuclear-winter.html
If a 1km asteroid were to hit the Earth, the dust it kicked up would block most sunlight over most of the world for 3 to 10 years. There’s only a one in a million chance of that happening per year, however. Whew. However, there’s a ten times bigger chance that a super volcano, such as the one hiding under Yellowstone, might explode, for a similar result. And I’d put the chance of a full scale nuclear war at ten to one hundred times larger than that: one in ten thousand to one thousand per year. Over a century, that becomes a one to ten percent chance. Not whew; grimace instead.

There is a substantial chance that a full scale nuclear war would produce a nuclear winter, with a similar effect: sunlight is blocked for 3-10 years or more. Yes, there are good criticisms of the more extreme forecasts, but there’s still a big chance the sun gets blocked in a full scale nuclear war, and there’s even a substantial chance of the same result in a mere regional war, where only 100 nukes explode (the world now has 15,000 nukes).

...

Yeah, probably a few people live on, and so humanity doesn’t go extinct. But the only realistic chance most of us have of surviving in this scenario is to use our vast industrial and scientific abilities to make food. We actually know of many plausible ways to make more than enough food to feed everyone for ten years, even with no sunlight. And even if big chunks of the world economy are in shambles. But for that to work, we must preserve enough social order to make use of at least the core of key social institutions.

http://www.overcomingbias.com/2017/09/mre-futures-to-not-starve.html

Nuclear War Survival Skills: http://oism.org/nwss/nwss.pdf
Updated and Expanded 1987 Edition

Nuclear winter: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_winter

Yellowstone supervolcano may blow sooner than thought — and could wipe out life on the planet: https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2017/10/12/yellowstone-supervolcano-may-blow-sooner-than-thought-could-wipe-out-life-planet/757337001/
http://www.foxnews.com/science/2017/10/12/yellowstone-supervolcano-could-blow-faster-than-thought-destroy-all-mankind.html
http://fortune.com/2017/10/12/yellowstone-park-supervolcano/
https://www.sciencenews.org/article/supervolcano-blast-would-blanket-us-ash
west-hunter  discussion  study  commentary  bio  food  energy-resources  technology  risk  the-world-is-just-atoms  agriculture  wild-ideas  malthus  objektbuch  threat-modeling  scitariat  scale  biophysical-econ  allodium  nihil  prepping  ideas  dirty-hands  magnitude  multi  ratty  hanson  planning  nuclear  arms  deterrence  institutions  alt-inst  securities  markets  pdf  org:gov  white-paper  survival  time  earth  war  wiki  reference  environment  sky  news  org:lite  hmm  idk  org:biz  org:sci  simulation  maps  usa  geoengineering 
march 2017 by nhaliday
DOD FOIA
I think some of these are "good enough for govt work"..., but definitely some interesting stuff, especially about China

nukes:
Litigation Release - Assessing Nuclear Competitions in the 21st Century 2010.pdf

China:
Litigation Release - China Military Strategy 2014.pdf
Litigation Release - China's Perception of Strategic Advantages of First Strike, Preemption, and Preventive Wars 201406.pdf
Litigation Release - China- The Three Warfares 201305.pdf
Litigation Release - How is Chinese Society Affected By Shrinking Family Size 201208.pdf

Americans (and China I think):
Litigation Release - On the Nature of Americans as a Warlike People Workshop Report 200904.pdf

tech:
Litigation Release - Technological Innovation During Protracted War Radar and Atomic Weapons in WWII 201504.pdf
Litigation Release - Technology Transfer Net Assessment Workshop Report 201201.pdf

China again:
Litigation Release - The Future of Africa The Future of China in Africa 2035 201406.pdf

Russia and climate change:
Litigation Release - The Kremlin's Arctic Dreams.pdf

China again:
Litigation Release - The Neurocognitive Divide 201412.pdf

demographic trends mostly:
Litigation Release - The Next 100 Years Workshop Report 200903.pdf
Litigation Release - The Next 100 Years Workshop Report Part II 200908.pdf

more China:
Litigation Release - The Strategic Consequences of Chinese Racism 201301.pdf

Americans:
Litigation Release - Trends in Elite American Attitudes Toward War Workshop Report 201009.pdf

more China:
Litigation Release - Why China Seeks Confrontation with the U.S. 201108.pdf

reflection:
Litigation Release - Why is Strategy so difficult 201102.pdf
org:gov  links  list  military  war  strategy  trends  culture  analysis  prediction  speculation  leaks  gnon  anglosphere  usa  asia  china  foreign-policy  realpolitik  the-great-west-whale  nuclear  russia  environment  technology  climate-change  sinosphere  fertility  martial  big-picture  meta:war  current-events  africa  migration  futurism  migrant-crisis  demographics  tetlock  study  hmm  idk  demographic-transition  multi  pop-diff  chart  defense  zeitgeist  the-bones  great-powers  kumbaya-kult  peace-violence  white-paper 
march 2017 by nhaliday
Bisphenol A (BPA)
Alternatives to BPA containers not easy for U.S. foodmakers to find: http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/02/22/AR2010022204830.html

Food is main source of BPA for consumers, thermal paper also potentially significant: https://www.efsa.europa.eu/en/press/news/130725
New data resulting from an EFSA call for data led to a considerable refinement of exposure estimates compared to 2006. For infants and toddlers (aged 6 months-3 years) average exposure from the diet is estimated to amount to 375 nanograms per kilogram of body weight per day (ng/kg bw/day) whereas for the population above 18 years of age (including women of child-bearing age) the figure is up to 132 ng/kg bw/day. By comparison, these estimates are less than 1% of the current Tolerable Daily Intake (TDI) for BPA (0.05 milligrams/kg bw/day) established by EFSA in 2006.

For all population groups above three years of age thermal paper was the second most important source of BPA after the diet (potentially accounting for up to 15% of total exposure in some population groups).

Among other key findings, scientists found dietary exposure to BPA to be the highest among children aged three to ten (explainable by their higher food consumption on a body weight basis). Canned food and non-canned meat and meat products were identified as major contributors to dietary BPA exposure for all age groups.

Tips for Avoiding BPA in Canned Food: http://www.breastcancerfund.org/reduce-your-risk/tips/avoid-bpa.html

Holding Thermal Receipt Paper and Eating Food after Using Hand Sanitizer Results in High Serum Bioactive and Urine Total Levels of Bisphenol A (BPA): http://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0110509

Bisphenol S Disrupts Estradiol-Induced Nongenomic Signaling in a Rat Pituitary Cell Line: Effects on Cell Functions: http://ehp.niehs.nih.gov/1205826/
common substitute for BPA

http://wellnessmama.com/54748/hidden-sources-of-bpa/

Effect of probiotics, Bifidobacterium breve and Lactobacillus casei, on bisphenol A exposure in rats: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/18540113

What are the sources of exposure to eight frequently used phthalic acid esters in Europeans?: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/16834635
Food is a main source of DiBP, DnBP, and DEHP in consumers. In this case, consumers have very few possibilities to effectively reduce their exposure.

Are endocrine disrupting compounds a health risk in drinking water?: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/16823090

How to Avoid Phthalates (Even Though You Can't Avoid Phthalates): http://www.huffingtonpost.com/maia-james/phthalates-health_b_2464248.html
data  org:gov  hypochondria  endocrine  embodied-street-fighting  public-health  news  org:rec  business  tradeoffs  food  multi  study  summary  diet  top-n  org:euro  org:health  nitty-gritty  human-bean  checklists  cooking  embodied  human-study  science-anxiety  sanctity-degradation  intervention  epidemiology  bio  🐸  model-organism  list  health  hmm  idk  parasites-microbiome  street-fighting  evidence-based  objektbuch  embodied-pack  chart  roots  h2o  advice  org:lite  biodet  fluid  left-wing 
january 2017 by nhaliday
The Interest Rate is a Price, not a Prediction – spottedtoad
What I sensed was that while the laws of supply and demand governed everything on earth, the easy money was in demand—manufacturing it, manipulating it, sending it forth to multiply, etc. As a rule of thumb (and with some notable exceptions), the profit margins you could achieve selling a good or service were directly correlated to the total idiocy and/or moral bankruptcy of the demand you drummed up for it.
This was easier to grasp if you were in the business of peddling heroin, Internet stocks, or celebrity gossip; journalists, on the other hand, were at a conspicuous disadvantage when it came to understanding their role in this equation…That journalism’s ability to deliver that information—to fill that need—ultimately depended, to an unsettling degree, on the ability to create artificial demand for a lot of stuff that people didn’t actually need—luxury condos, ergonomically correct airplane seats, the latest celebrity-endorsed scent—was an afterthought at best, at least in the newsroom.

https://twitter.com/toad_spotted/status/730030473506885632
https://archive.is/SS3K9
https://archive.is/CDGr2
"part of a bigger, vague theory I have that pop growth leads to more risk taking, entrepreneurship, and innovation..."
ratty  unaffiliated  economics  time-preference  fertility  trends  consumerism  supply-demand  commentary  innovation  migration  wonkish  multi  twitter  social  econotariat  biophysical-econ  managerial-state  monetary-fiscal  capital  capitalism  nl-and-so-can-you  westminster  malaise  roots  stylized-facts  current-events  nationalism-globalism  redistribution  chart  nihil  life-history  pop-diff  welfare-state  zeitgeist  identity-politics  idk  media  local-global  politics  decentralized  government  usa  prediction  cycles  housing  china  asia  sinosphere  europe  EU  japan  debt  the-bones  vampire-squid  entrepreneurialism  uncertainty  outcome-risk 
january 2017 by nhaliday
China invents the digital totalitarian state | The Economist
PROGRAMMING CHINA: The Communist Party’s autonomic approach to managing state security: https://www.merics.org/sites/default/files/2017-12/171212_China_Monitor_44_Programming_China_EN__0.pdf
- The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has developed a form of authoritarianism that cannot be measured through traditional political scales like reform versus retrenchment. This version of authoritarianism involves both “hard” and “soft” authoritarian methods that constantly act together.
...
- To describe the social management process, this paper introduces a new analytical framework called China’s “Autonomic Nervous System” (ANS). This approach explains China’s social management process through a complex systems engineering framework. This framework mirrors the CCP’s Leninist way of thinking.
- The framework describes four key parts of social management, visualized through ANS’s “self-configuring,” “self-healing,” “self-optimizing” and “self-protecting” objectives.

China's Social Credit System: An Evolving Practice of Control: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3175792

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=12771302
https://twitter.com/Aelkus/status/873584698655735808
http://infoproc.blogspot.com/2017/06/face-recognition-applied-at-scale-in.html
The Chinese government is not the only entity that has access to millions of faces + identifying information. So do Google, Facebook, Instagram, and anyone who has scraped information from similar social networks (e.g., US security services, hackers, etc.).

In light of such ML capabilities it seems clear that anti-ship ballistic missiles can easily target a carrier during the final maneuver phase of descent, using optical or infrared sensors (let alone radar).

https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-all-seeing-surveillance-state-feared-in-the-west-is-a-reality-in-china-1498493020
https://twitter.com/0xa59a2d/status/880098750009659392
https://archive.is/zHmmE
China goes all-in on technology the US is afraid to do right.
US won't learn its lesson in time for CRISPR or AI.

https://www.acast.com/theeconomistasks/theeconomistasks-howdoyouwintheairace-
Artificial intelligence is developing fast in China. But is it likely to enable the suppression of freedoms? One of China's most successful investors, Neil Shen, has a short answer to that question. Also, Chinese AI companies now have the potential to overtake their Western rivals -- we explain why. Anne McElvoy hosts with The Economist's AI expert, Tom Standage

the dude just stonewalls when asked at 7:50, completely zipped lips

http://www.indiatimes.com/technology/science-and-future/this-scary-chinese-surveillance-video-is-serious-cause-for-concern-but-just-not-why-you-think-330530.html
What you’re looking at above is the work of SenseTime, a Chinese computer vision startup. The software in question, called SenseVideo, is a visual scenario analytics system. Basically, it can analyse video footage to pinpoint whether moving objects are humans, cars, or other entities. It’s even sophisticated enough to detect gender, clothing, and the type of vehicle it’s looking at, all in real time.

https://streamable.com/iyi3z

Even China’s Backwater Cities Are Going Smart: http://www.sixthtone.com/news/1001452/even-chinas-backwater-cities-are-going-smart

https://twitter.com/ctbeiser/status/913054318869217282
https://archive.is/IiZiP
remember that tweet with the ML readout of Chinese surveilance cameras? Get ready for the future (via @triviumchina)

XI praised the organization and promised to help it beef up its operations (China
Daily):
- "China will 'help ... 100 developing countries build or upgrade communication systems and crime labs in the next five years'"
- "The Chinese government will establish an international law enforcement institute under the Ministry of Public Security which will train 20,000 police for developing nations in the coming five years"

The Chinese connection to the Zimbabwe 'coup': http://www.cnn.com/2017/11/17/africa/china-zimbabwe-mugabe-diplomacy/index.html

China to create national name-and-shame system for ‘deadbeat borrowers’: http://www.scmp.com/news/china/economy/article/2114768/china-create-national-name-and-shame-system-deadbeat-borrowers
Anyone who fails to repay a bank loan will be blacklisted and have their personal details made public

China Snares Innocent and Guilty Alike to Build World’s Biggest DNA Database: https://www.wsj.com/articles/china-snares-innocent-and-guilty-alike-to-build-worlds-biggest-dna-database-1514310353
Police gather blood and saliva samples from many who aren’t criminals, including those who forget ID cards, write critically of the state or are just in the wrong place

Many of the ways Chinese police are collecting samples are impermissible in the U.S. In China, DNA saliva swabs or blood samples are routinely gathered from people detained for violations such as forgetting to carry identity cards or writing blogs critical of the state, according to documents from a national police DNA conference in September and official forensic journals.

Others aren’t suspected of any crime. Police target certain groups considered a higher risk to social stability. These include migrant workers and, in one city, coal miners and home renters, the documents show.

...

In parts of the country, law enforcement has stored DNA profiles with a subject’s other biometric information, including fingerprints, portraits and voice prints, the heads of the DNA program wrote in the Chinese journal Forensic Science and Technology last year. One provincial police force has floated plans to link the data to a person’s information such as online shopping records and entertainment habits, according to a paper presented at the national police DNA conference. Such high-tech files would create more sophisticated versions of paper dossiers that police have long relied on to keep tabs on citizens.

Marrying DNA profiles with real-time surveillance tools, such as monitoring online activity and cameras hooked to facial-recognition software, would help China’s ruling Communist Party develop an all-encompassing “digital totalitarian state,” says Xiao Qiang, adjunct professor at the University of California at Berkeley’s School of Information.

...

A teenage boy studying in one of the county’s high schools recalled that a policeman came into his class after lunch one day this spring and passed out the collection boxes. Male students were told to clean their mouths, spit into the boxes and place them into envelopes on which they had written their names.

...

Chinese police sometimes try to draw connections between ethnic background or place of origin and propensity for crime. Police officers in northwestern China’s Ningxia region studied data on local prisoners and noticed that a large number came from three towns. They decided to collect genetic material from boys and men from every clan to bolster the local DNA database, police said at the law-enforcement DNA conference in September.

https://twitter.com/nils_gilman/status/945820396615483392
China is certainly in the lead in the arena of digital-biometric monitoring. Particularly “interesting” is the proposal to merge DNA info with online behavioral profiling.

https://twitter.com/mr_scientism/status/949730145195233280
https://archive.is/OCsxs

https://www.techinasia.com/china-citizen-scores-credit-system-orwellian
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/amp/news/world/chinese-blacklist-an-early-glimpse-of-sweeping-new-social-credit-control/article37493300/

https://twitter.com/mr_scientism/status/952263056662384640
https://archive.is/tGErH
This is the thing I find the most disenchanting about the current political spectrum. It's all reheated ideas that are a century old, at least. Everyone wants to run our iPhone society with power structures dating to the abacus.
--
Thank God for the forward-thinking Chinese Communist Party and its high-tech social credit system!

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Social_Credit_System

INSIDE CHINA'S VAST NEW EXPERIMENT IN SOCIAL RANKING: https://www.wired.com/story/age-of-social-credit/
http://www.wired.co.uk/article/chinese-government-social-credit-score-privacy-invasion

http://foreignpolicy.com/2017/05/24/chinese-citizens-want-the-government-to-rank-them/
The government thinks "social credit" will fix the country's lack of trust — and the public agrees.

To be Chinese today is to live in a society of distrust, where every opportunity is a potential con and every act of generosity a risk of exploitation. When old people fall on the street, it’s common that no one offers to help them up, afraid that they might be accused of pushing them in the first place and sued. The problem has grown steadily since the start of the country’s economic boom in the 1980s. But only recently has the deficit of social trust started to threaten not just individual lives, but the country’s economy and system of politics as a whole. The less people trust each other, the more the social pact that the government has with its citizens — of social stability and harmony in exchange for a lack of political rights — disintegrates.

All of which explains why Chinese state media has recently started to acknowledge the phenomenon — and why the government has started searching for solutions. But rather than promoting the organic return of traditional morality to reduce the gulf of distrust, the Chinese government has preferred to invest its energy in technological fixes. It’s now rolling out systems of data-driven “social credit” that will purportedly address the problem by tracking “good” and “bad” behavior, with rewards and punishments meted out accordingly. In the West, plans of this sort have tended to spark fears about the reach of the surveillance state. Yet in China, it’s being welcomed by a public fed up of not knowing who to trust.

It’s unsurprising that a system that promises to place a check on unfiltered power has proven popular — although it’s… [more]
news  org:rec  org:biz  china  asia  institutions  government  anglosphere  privacy  civil-liberty  individualism-collectivism  org:anglo  technocracy  authoritarianism  managerial-state  intel  sinosphere  order-disorder  madisonian  orient  protocol  n-factor  internet  domestication  multi  commentary  hn  society  huge-data-the-biggest  unaffiliated  twitter  social  trust  hsu  scitariat  anonymity  computer-vision  gnon  🐸  leviathan  arms  oceans  sky  open-closed  alien-character  dirty-hands  backup  podcast  audio  interview  ai  antidemos  video  org:foreign  ratty  postrat  expansionism  developing-world  debt  corruption  anomie  organizing  dark-arts  alt-inst  org:lite  africa  orwellian  innovation  biotech  enhancement  GWAS  genetics  genomics  trends  education  crime  criminal-justice  criminology  journos-pundits  chart  consumerism  entertainment  within-group  urban-rural  geography  org:mag  modernity  flux-stasis  hmm  comparison  speedometer  reddit  discussion  ssc  mobile  futurism  absolute-relative  apple  scale  cohesion  cooperate-defect  coordinati 
january 2017 by nhaliday
Competent Elites - Less Wrong
http://infoproc.blogspot.com/2009/08/creators-and-rulers.html

Cochran: https://pinboard.in/u:nhaliday/b:d8fc1403ad19

How to Become a C.E.O.? The Quickest Path Is a Winding One: https://www.nytimes.com/2016/09/11/upshot/how-to-become-a-ceo-the-quickest-path-is-a-winding-one.html
New evidence shows that a mix of skills, especially technology skills, counts more than simply long experience in one specialty.

What Does a C.E.O. Actually Do?: http://freakonomics.com/podcast/c-e-o-actually/

On empathy: psychopaths, sociopaths and aspies: http://infoproc.blogspot.com/2011/06/on-empathy-psychopaths-sociopaths-and.html
Last week a startup CTO, who didn't know my background, characterized all CEOs as "warm sociopaths" :-) He is at least partly right: many business and political leaders are good at reading other people's thoughts and emotions, but lack genuine concern for their well being. On the other hand, many geeks are very bad at mind reading or emotional perception, yet adhere to a strict moral code.

East Asian sociopaths?: http://infoproc.blogspot.com/2011/06/east-asian-sociopaths.html
Some would assert that CEOs and other people in leadership positions are often warm sociopaths. Interestingly, it is claimed that there is a huge variation between groups in the rate of sociopathy. Perhaps this is related to the under-representation of E. Asians in leadership positions in the West, despite their high educational achievements? (Instead of sociopathy other factors like aggressiveness in interpersonal relationships might play a role.)

THE ILLUSION OF ASIAN SUCCESS: Scant Progress for Minorities in Cracking the Glass Ceiling from 2007–2015: http://c.ymcdn.com/sites/www.ascendleadership.org/resource/resmgr/research/TheIllusionofAsianSuccess.pdf
https://twitter.com/tcjfs/status/924328536177037312
https://archive.is/PiRKX
Asians are not making it into top ranks at tech firms.
EPI = %exec / %professionals
MPI = %managers / %professionals

CEOs really are worth more than they used to be: https://www.adamsmith.org/blog/economics/ceos-really-are-worth-more-than-they-used-to-be
more: https://twitter.com/s8mb/status/762711050437419008
More silliness on executive pay: https://www.adamsmith.org/blog/yes-chief-executives-really-do-matter
ratty  lesswrong  hmm  impro  high-variance  impact  business  rhetoric  reflection  power  optimate  success  big-yud  multi  hsu  scitariat  signal-noise  leadership  humility  elite  entrepreneurialism  s-factor  organizing  stereotypes  iq  personality  discipline  ability-competence  management  class  strategy  career  planning  data  idk  jobs  long-term  tactics  org:rec  empirical  working-stiff  org:data  progression  knowledge  org:lite  brands  economics  labor  industrial-org  study  summary  audio  podcast  interview  albion  econotariat  nl-and-so-can-you  econometrics  natural-experiment  randy-ayndy  links  twitter  social  discussion  wonkish  chart  winner-take-all  trends  inequality  wealth  compensation  article  org:ngo  org:anglo  random  pdf  white-paper  race  demographics  asia  analysis  visualization  time-series  diversity  commentary  gnon  unaffiliated  right-wing  sv  tech  usa  the-west  california  corporation  psychiatry  socs-and-mops  pop-diff  speculation  psychology  morality  cooperate-defect  explanans  n-factor  disease  self-interest  crooked  vampi 
january 2017 by nhaliday
Europeans mutate differently - The Unz Review
But there’s a final element to be explored. Why is there in enrichment in the first place? It turns out that this sort of mutation is very common in melanomas. In particular of interest to me: “Folate deficiency is known to cause DNA damage including uracil misincorporation and double-strand breaks, leading in some cases to birth defects and reduced male fertility.” Folate deficiency can occur when light skinned individuals are exposed to sunlight. It strikes me that the higher mutational load for these particular transitions in Southern Europeans as opposed to Northern Europeans could simply be a function of the fact that they are in sunnier climates.
gnxp  scitariat  study  summary  evolution  sapiens  genetics  hmm  idk  europe  recent-selection  mutation  genomics  pop-structure  pop-diff 
january 2017 by nhaliday
The deleterious mutation load is insensitive to recent population history : Nature Genetics : Nature Research
contrary:
Distance from sub-Saharan Africa predicts mutational load in diverse human genomes: http://www.pnas.org/content/113/4/E440.abstract
“Out Of Africa” Bottleneck Is What Really Matters For Mutations: https://www.gnxp.com/WordPress/2017/04/26/out-of-africa-bottleneck-is-what-really-matters-for-mutations/
But there is also a lot of archaeological and some ancient genetic DNA now that indicates that the vast majority of non-African ancestry began to expand rapidly around 50-60,000 years ago. This is tens of thousands of years after the lowest value given above. Therefore, again we have to make recourse to a long period of separation before the expansion. This is not implausible on the face of it, but we could do something else: just assume there’s an artifact with their methods and the inferred date of divergence is too old. That would solve many of the issues.

I really don’t know if the above quibbles have any ramification for the site frequency spectrum of deleterious mutations. My own hunch is that no, it doesn’t impact the qualitative results at all.

Figure 3 clearly shows that Europeans are enriched for weak and moderately deleterious mutations (the last category produces weird results, and I wish they’d talked about this more, but they observe that strong deleterious mutations have issues getting detected). Ne is just the effective population size and s is the selection coefficient (bigger number, stronger selection).

Too Much Diversity: https://westhunt.wordpress.com/2012/11/30/too-much-diversity/
There’s a new paper out in Nature, by Wenqing Fu and many other people, about the recent origin of most variants in protein-coding genes. They conclude that most are less than 5-10,000 year old – younger in Europeans than in Africans. This is a natural consequence of the shape of human demographic history – there was a huge population increase with the advent of agriculture, and more people meant more mutations. That agricultural expansion happened somewhat earlier in the Middle East and Europe than in Africa.

...

A very few mutations are beneficial, some are neutral and many are deleterious, although the degree of harm inflicted varies widely. So the population expansion also increased the number of bad mutations – but unless selection also relaxed, it would not have changed the per-capita number of deleterious mutations, or the distribution of their effects (what fraction had large, medium, or small effects on fitness). It increased the diversity of deleterious mutations – they are more motley, not more common. The article never talks about that per-capita number, or, if it did , I was unable to winkle it out. It talks about ages and numbers of mutations – but not the mean number, in either of the two populations studied (European Americans and African Americans) . I think it would been a lot clearer, confused fewer reporters, if it had made that distinction. On the other hand, depending on the facts on the ground, talking about mutational load might be a grant-killer. There was a paper earlier this year (with many of the same authors) that used about half of the same data and did mention per-capita numbers. I’ve discussed it.

...

The paper says that there may be an excess of weakly deleterious mutations in Europeans due to bottlenecks back in the Ice Age. The idea works like this: selection is less efficient in small populations. Deleterious mutations with an effect s < 1/Ne drift freely and are not efficiently removed by selection. This effect takes on the order of Ne generations – so a population reduced to an effective size of of 10,000 for 10,000 generations ( ~250,000 years) would accumulate a large-than-usual number of deleterious mutations of effect size ~10-4. Lohmueller et al wrote about this back in 2008: the scenario they used had a European ancestral bottleneck 200,000 years long, which is A. what you need to make this scenario work and B. impossible, since it’s way before anatomically modern humans left Africa. Back to the drawing board.

disease alleles:
Ascertainment bias can create the illusion of genetic health disparities: https://www.biorxiv.org/content/early/2017/09/28/195768
study  genetics  regularizer  genetic-load  sapiens  europe  africa  comparison  world  recent-selection  org:nat  pop-structure  null-result  pop-diff  multi  evolution  roots  gnxp  scitariat  commentary  summary  migration  gene-drift  long-short-run  bio  preprint  🌞  debate  hmm  idk  disease  genomics  bioinformatics  spreading  west-hunter  antiquity  eden 
january 2017 by nhaliday
Anomaly UK: Actually Existing Capitalism
The reason neocameralism makes sense is that joint-stock companies basically work.
business  coordination  institutions  idk  gnon  essay  rhetoric  investing  incentives  capitalism  ideology  organizing  feudal  technocracy 
december 2016 by nhaliday
Edge.org: 2016 : WHAT DO YOU CONSIDER THE MOST INTERESTING RECENT [SCIENTIFIC] NEWS? WHAT MAKES IT IMPORTANT?
highlights:
- quantum supremacy [Scott Aaronson]
- gene drive
- gene editing/CRISPR
- carcinogen may be entropy
- differentiable programming
- quantitative biology
soft:
- antisocial punishment of pro-social cooperators
- "strongest prejudice" (politics) [Haidt]
- Europeans' origins [Cochran]
- "Anthropic Capitalism And The New Gimmick Economy" [Eric Weinstein]

https://twitter.com/toad_spotted/status/986253381344907265
https://archive.is/gNGDJ
There's an underdiscussed contradiction between the idea that our society would make almost all knowledge available freely and instantaneously to almost everyone and that almost everyone would find gainful employment as knowledge workers. Value is in scarcity not abundance.
--
You’d need to turn reputational-based systems into an income stream
technology  discussion  trends  gavisti  west-hunter  aaronson  haidt  list  expert  science  biotech  geoengineering  top-n  org:edge  frontier  multi  CRISPR  2016  big-picture  links  the-world-is-just-atoms  quantum  quantum-info  computation  metameta  🔬  scitariat  q-n-a  zeitgeist  speedometer  cancer  random  epidemiology  mutation  GT-101  cooperate-defect  cultural-dynamics  anthropology  expert-experience  tcs  volo-avolo  questions  thiel  capitalism  labor  supply-demand  internet  tech  economics  broad-econ  prediction  automation  realness  gnosis-logos  iteration-recursion  similarity  uniqueness  homo-hetero  education  duplication  creative  software  programming  degrees-of-freedom  futurism  order-disorder  flux-stasis  public-goodish  markets  market-failure  piracy  property-rights  free-riding  twitter  social  backup  ratty  unaffiliated  gnon  contradiction  career  planning  hmm  idk  knowledge  higher-ed  pro-rata  sociality  reinforcement  tribalism  us-them  politics  coalitions  prejudice  altruism  human-capital  engineering  unintended-consequences 
november 2016 by nhaliday
Overcoming Bias : Trump, Political Innovator
Many have expressed great anxiety about Trump’s win, saying that he is is bad overall because he induces greater global and domestic uncertainly. In their mind, this includes a higher chances of wars, coups, riots, collapse of democracy, and so on. But overall these seem to be generic consequences of political innovation. Innovation in general is disruptive and costly in the short run, but can aide adaptation in the long run.

So you can dislike Trump for two very different reasons, First, you can dislike innovation on the other side of the political spectrum, as you see that coming at the expense of your side. Or, or you can dislike political innovation in general. But if innovation is the process of adapting to changing conditions, it must be mostly a question of when, not if. And less frequent innovations are probably bigger changes, which is probably more disruptive overall.

So what you should really be asking is: what were the obstacles to smaller past innovations in Trump’s new direction? And how can we reduce such obstacles?

https://www.overcomingbias.com/2016/11/dial-it-back.html
In a repeated game, where the same people play the same game over and over, cooperation can more easily arise than in a one-shot version of the game, where such people play only once and then never interact again. This sort of cooperation gets easier the more that players care about the many future iterations of the game, compared to the current iteration.

When a group repeats the same game, but some iterations count much more than others, then defection from cooperation is most likely at a big “endgame” iteration.

https://www.overcomingbias.com/2016/11/careful-who-you-call-racist.html
https://www.overcomingbias.com/2016/11/get-a-grip-theres-a-much-bigger-picture.html
past and future contextualize present
hanson  ratty  politics  2016-election  thinking  innovation  society  coalitions  contrarianism  polisci  insight  hmm  idk  trump  2016  social-choice  elections  current-events  multi  rhetoric  culture-war  game-theory  iteration-recursion  sequential  GT-101  race  language  identity-politics  cooperate-defect  polarization  regularizer  futurism  rationality  essay  big-picture  context 
november 2016 by nhaliday
Information Processing: The truth about the Chinese economy, from debt to ghost cities
1. 90% of China factory output consumed in China (not for export).
2. Export component of total GDP now relatively minor.
3. Build up in debt mostly in SOE sector, used to fund infrastructure and create jobs in wake of 2008 crisis (Keynesian stimulus).
4. Real estate finance not highly leveraged -- 30 to 70 percent cash in most transactions.
5. Ghost cities usually due to public + private partnerships in which private apartment developers complete buildings before public infrastructure (e.g., train or subway line) is in place. This leads to 1-2 year ghost city lag that is eventually closed. Follow up investigation of ghost cities shows that occupancy is eventually realized. (I've seen one example like this first hand, east of Shenzhen, where occupancy was indeed waiting on the extension of a train line.)

The Unreal, Eerie Emptiness of China’s ‘Ghost Cities’: http://www.wired.com/2016/02/kai-caemmerer-unborn-cities/
china  asia  economics  macro  news  summary  hsu  podcast  audio  regularizer  foreign-policy  data  scitariat  wonkish  debt  infrastructure  sinosphere  current-events  urban  idk  urban-rural  multi  frontier  org:mag  trends 
november 2016 by nhaliday
Overcoming Bias : Alcohol As Placebo
I don't believe this (at least the coffee comparison is implausible: coffee is a stimulant, alcohol isn't)
hanson  drugs  psychology  social-psych  X-not-about-Y  signaling  society  insight  ethanol  idk  eh  illusion  realness  ratty 
october 2016 by nhaliday
Germany reunified 26 years ago, but some divisions are still strong - The Washington Post
hbdchick's favorite article:
What Britain needs to understand about the profound and ancient divisions in Germany: https://www.newstatesman.com/world/europe/2017/09/what-britain-needs-understand-about-profound-and-ancient-divisions-germany
So while it is easy and comfortable to say that the otherness of eastern Germany today is the result of that 40-year Soviet occupation, history says otherwise. East Elbia has always been different. Take the voting patterns: from 1871 to 1933, East Elbia outside Berlin (always a left-liberal political island) was the main electoral reservoir for the authoritarian right. The Prussian Conservative Party under the empire, the Deutschnationale Volkspartei until 1928 and the Nazis from 1930 depended on rural and small-town East Elbian voters. It was they who (just) swung things in 1933, by going 50-60 per cent for the “Hitler coalition”. Had all Germany voted like the Rhineland or Bavaria, Hitler and his Junker allies would have got nowhere close to a majority. Small wonder that Adenauer didn’t want East Elbia back and was secretly delighted to have it safely fenced off behind the Iron Curtain.

contrary from Anatoly Karlin:
Ossies Are East Europeans: http://www.unz.com/akarlin/ossies-are-east-europeans/
Yet more evidence for the theory that Communism “deep froze” social attitudes.

Now yes, you can rejoinder with a comparison to Nazi voting patterns.

But look…

1. The borders of the former DDR are very cleanly delineated. The AfD’s share of the vote there ranged from 19% in Mecklenburg-Vorprommern to 27% in Saxony. In contrast, they only got 12% in Bavaria, the most nationalist Wessie state.

2. While the share of the vote for the Nazis in March 1933 did indeed rise from the west and south to the north and east, it was a gradual incline, not a cliff.

And even this map is to a large extent an artifact of the bloc voting habits of German Catholics, most of them concentrated in the south and west, and of whom almost half traditionally voted for the Center Party.

And there was also the Bavarian People’s Party locking away 28% of the vote in Bavaria.

Meanwhile, Saxony – the most pro-AfD state in Germany today – was actually far more Leftist than average in 1933. Communists and Social Democrats got a combined 48% of the vote there, relative to the national average of 37%.

So yes, I’m pretty skeptical of the Jaymannian notion that there are deep-grained HBD differences that massively predispose East Germans to far right politics.

Specific circumstances explain things far better.

In 1933: Poorer, non-Catholic, less industrialized, possibly less bright (Saxony seems to have a higher IQ than northern East Germany) regions voted for the Nazis.

In 2017: The territories of the former DDR that were not exposed to decades of Hollywood diversity propaganda voted for the AfD.

In other words, the Ossies are politically just like the Visegrad nations (Poland, Hungary, Czechia, etc.) on this particular question. Even though the social differences within this general region – e.g. atheist in the DDR and Czechia, with nudism and a penchant for porn thrown in, respectively; highly prudish and conservative in Poland – are otherwise quite considerable.

https://twitter.com/akarlin88/status/914097224648478720
https://archive.is/6LlkN
pseudoE  hmm  economics  history  europe  class  institutions  econotariat  org:rec  germanic  natural-experiment  divergence  path-dependence  mostly-modern  the-great-west-whale  roots  shift  broad-econ  cultural-dynamics  wealth-of-nations  within-group  communism  political-econ  microfoundations  geography  multi  elections  current-events  news  org:mag  politics  debate  idk  regularizer  gnon  critique  eastern-europe  twitter  social  discussion  backup  books  recommendations  cold-war  maps 
october 2016 by nhaliday
Physical activity in adulthood: genes and mortality : Scientific Reports
Observational studies report a strong inverse relationship between leisure-time physical activity and all-cause mortality. Despite suggestive evidence from population-based associations, scientists have not been able to show a beneficial effect of physical activity on the risk of death in controlled intervention studies among individuals who have been healthy at baseline. On the other hand, high cardiorespiratory fitness is known to be a strong predictor of reduced mortality, even more robust than physical activity level itself. Here, in both animals and/or human twins, we show that the same genetic factors influence physical activity levels, cardiorespiratory fitness, and risk of death. Previous observational follow-up studies in humans suggest that increasing fitness through physical activity levels could prolong life; however, our controlled interventional study with laboratory rats bred for low and high intrinsic fitness contrast with these findings. Also, we find no evidence for the suggested association using pairwise analysis among monozygotic twin pairs who are discordant in their physical activity levels. Based on both our animal and human findings, we propose that genetic pleiotropy might partly explain the frequently observed associations between high baseline physical activity and later reduced mortality in humans.

https://www.reddit.com/r/slatestarcodex/comments/52xt13/physical_activity_in_adulthood_genes_and_mortality/
study  longevity  aging  genetics  fitness  idk  fitsci  variance-components  genetic-correlation  twin-study  evidence-based  🌞  org:nat  environmental-effects  c:**  biodet  intervention  cardio  hmm  null-result  human-study  model-organism  solid-study  multi  reddit  social  commentary  ssc  gwern  ratty 
september 2016 by nhaliday
Are You Living in a Computer Simulation?
Bostrom's anthropic arguments

https://www.jetpress.org/volume7/simulation.htm
In sum, if your descendants might make simulations of lives like yours, then you might be living in a simulation. And while you probably cannot learn much detail about the specific reasons for and nature of the simulation you live in, you can draw general conclusions by making analogies to the types and reasons of simulations today. If you might be living in a simulation then all else equal it seems that you should care less about others, live more for today, make your world look likely to become eventually rich, expect to and try to participate in pivotal events, be entertaining and praiseworthy, and keep the famous people around you happy and interested in you.

Theological Implications of the Simulation Argument: https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/pdf/10.1080/15665399.2010.10820012
Nick Bostrom’s Simulation Argument (SA) has many intriguing theological implications. We work out some of them here. We show how the SA can be used to develop novel versions of the Cosmological and Design Arguments. We then develop some of the affinities between Bostrom’s naturalistic theogony and more traditional theological topics. We look at the resurrection of the body and at theodicy. We conclude with some reflections on the relations between the SA and Neoplatonism (friendly) and between the SA and theism (less friendly).

https://www.gwern.net/Simulation-inferences
lesswrong  philosophy  weird  idk  thinking  insight  links  summary  rationality  ratty  bostrom  sampling-bias  anthropic  theos  simulation  hanson  decision-making  advice  mystic  time-preference  futurism  letters  entertainment  multi  morality  humility  hypocrisy  wealth  malthus  power  drama  gedanken  pdf  article  essay  religion  christianity  the-classics  big-peeps  iteration-recursion  aesthetics  nietzschean  axioms  gwern  analysis  realness  von-neumann  space  expansionism  duplication  spreading  sequential  cs  computation  outcome-risk  measurement  empirical  questions  bits  information-theory  efficiency  algorithms  physics  relativity  ems  neuro  data  scale  magnitude  complexity  risk  existence  threat-modeling  civilization  forms-instances 
september 2016 by nhaliday
What Comes Naturally - The New Yorker
pretty typical reaction for a literary-minded person (argument and unthinking rejection w/o data), but a few substantial (if unsubstantiated) objections
idk  eh  evolution  sapiens  evopsych  regularizer  books  review  critique  pinker  org:mag  biodet 
september 2016 by nhaliday
« earlier      
per page:    204080120160

bundles : emojiprops

related tags

2016-election  aaronson  ability-competence  abortion-contraception-embryo  absolute-relative  academia  accretion  accuracy  acm  acmtariat  advertising  advice  aesthetics  africa  age-generation  age-of-discovery  aging  agriculture  ai  ai-control  akrasia  albion  algorithms  alien-character  alignment  allodium  alt-inst  altruism  amazon  american-nations  analogy  analysis  analytical-holistic  anarcho-tyranny  anglo  anglosphere  announcement  anomie  anonymity  anthropic  anthropology  antidemos  antiquity  aphorism  apollonian-dionysian  app  apple  applicability-prereqs  arbitrage  aristos  arms  art  article  ascetic  asia  atmosphere  atoms  attaq  attention  audio  authoritarianism  autism  automation  aversion  axelrod  axioms  backup  barons  bayesian  beauty  behavioral-econ  behavioral-gen  being-right  benevolence  best-practices  better-explained  biases  big-peeps  big-picture  big-yud  bio  biodet  bioinformatics  biophysical-econ  biotech  bitcoin  bits  blog  blowhards  books  bostrom  bots  bounded-cognition  brain-scan  branches  brands  brexit  britain  broad-econ  buddhism  business  business-models  c(pp)  c:*  c:**  calculation  calculator  california  canada  cancer  capital  capitalism  carcinisation  cardio  career  causation  censorship  chapman  charity  chart  cheatsheet  checklists  chemistry  china  christianity  civic  civil-liberty  civilization  class  class-warfare  classic  clever-rats  climate-change  cliometrics  cloud  clown-world  coalitions  cocktail  cog-psych  cohesion  cold-war  coming-apart  commentary  communication  communism  community  comparison  compensation  competition  complex-systems  complexity  composition-decomposition  computation  computer-vision  concept  conceptual-vocab  concrete  confluence  confucian  conquest-empire  consumerism  context  contradiction  contrarianism  convergence  convexity-curvature  cooking  cool  cooperate-defect  coordination  core-rats  corporation  correlation  corruption  cost-benefit  counter-revolution  counterfactual  courage  cracker-econ  creative  crime  criminal-justice  criminology  CRISPR  critique  crooked  crypto  crypto-anarchy  cryptocurrency  cs  cultural-dynamics  culture  culture-war  curiosity  current-events  curvature  cybernetics  cycles  cynicism-idealism  dark-arts  data  data-science  database  death  debate  debt  decentralized  decision-making  decision-theory  deep-learning  deep-materialism  defense  definite-planning  degrees-of-freedom  dementia  democracy  demographic-transition  demographics  dennett  density  desktop  detail-architecture  deterrence  developing-world  developmental  devtools  diaspora  diet  dignity  direct-indirect  direction  dirty-hands  discipline  discussion  disease  distributed  distribution  divergence  diversity  diy  domestication  douthatish  drama  drugs  duplication  duty  dynamic  dysgenics  early-modern  earth  eastern-europe  ecology  econ-metrics  econometrics  economics  econotariat  eden  eden-heaven  education  effective-altruism  efficiency  egalitarianism-hierarchy  eh  elections  electromag  elite  email  embedded-cognition  embodied  embodied-cognition  embodied-pack  embodied-street-fighting  emergent  emotion  empirical  ems  end-times  endo-exo  endocrine  endogenous-exogenous  endurance  energy-resources  engineering  enhancement  enlightenment-renaissance-restoration-reformation  ensembles  entertainment  entrepreneurialism  entropy-like  environment  environmental-effects  epidemiology  epistemic  equilibrium  error  essay  essence-existence  ethanol  ethical-algorithms  ethics  ethnocentrism  ethnography  EU  europe  evidence-based  evolution  evopsych  existence  exit-voice  exocortex  expansionism  experiment  expert  expert-experience  explanans  explanation  exploratory  exposition  expression-survival  externalities  extra-introversion  facebook  faq  farmers-and-foragers  FDA  fermi  fertility  feudal  fiction  field-study  film  finance  fintech  fitness  fitsci  flexibility  fluid  flux-stasis  flynn  food  foreign-lang  foreign-policy  formal-values  forms-instances  frameworks  free-riding  frontend  frontier  fungibility-liquidity  futurism  gallic  galor-like  game-theory  gavisti  gedanken  gender  gender-diff  gene-drift  general-survey  genetic-correlation  genetic-load  genetics  genomics  geoengineering  geography  geopolitics  germanic  giants  gibbon  gnon  gnosis-logos  gnxp  good-evil  google  government  grad-school  graphical-models  graphs  gray-econ  great-powers  gregory-clark  ground-up  group-level  group-selection  growth  growth-econ  GT-101  gtd  guilt-shame  GWAS  gwern  h2o  habit  hacker  haidt  hanson  hard-tech  hardware  hari-seldon  harvard  health  heavy-industry  henrich  heterodox  hi-order-bits  hidden-motives  high-variance  higher-ed  hiit  history  hive-mind  hmm  hn  homepage  homo-hetero  honor  housing  hsu  huge-data-the-biggest  human-bean  human-capital  human-study  humility  hypochondria  hypocrisy  ideas  identity  identity-politics  ideology  idk  illusion  immune  impact  impetus  impro  incentives  india  individualism-collectivism  industrial-org  industrial-revolution  inequality  inference  info-dynamics  info-econ  infographic  information-theory  infrastructure  init  innovation  insight  institutions  integrity  intel  intelligence  interdisciplinary  interests  internet  interpretability  intervention  interview  intricacy  investing  iq  iraq-syria  iron-age  islam  israel  iteration-recursion  janus  japan  jargon  javascript  jobs  journos-pundits  justice  kinship  knowledge  korea  krugman  kumbaya-kult  labor  land  language  latin-america  law  leadership  leaks  left-wing  legibility  len:long  len:short  lens  lesswrong  let-me-see  letters  leviathan  libraries  life-history  liner-notes  links  list  literature  lived-experience  local-global  logic  lol  long-short-run  long-term  longevity  longform  longitudinal  low-hanging  lurid  machine-learning  macro  madisonian  magnitude  maker  malaise  malthus  management  managerial-state  map-territory  maps  marginal  marginal-rev  market-failure  marketing  markets  martial  math  math.DS  math.NT  matrix-factorization  maxim-gun  meaningness  measurement  media  medicine  medieval  mediterranean  memes(ew)  MENA  mena4  mendel-randomization  meta:prediction  meta:research  meta:rhetoric  meta:science  meta:war  metabolic  metabuch  metameta  methodology  metrics  micro  microbiz  microfoundations  midwest  migrant-crisis  migration  military  minimalism  miri-cfar  mobile  model-class  model-organism  models  modernity  monetary-fiscal  money  mood-affiliation  morality  mostly-modern  multi  music  mutation  mystic  n-factor  nascent-state  nationalism-globalism  natural-experiment  nature  network-structure  networking  neuro  neuro-nitgrit  neurons  new-religion  news  nibble  nietzschean  nihil  nitty-gritty  nl-and-so-can-you  noahpinion  noble-lie  noblesse-oblige  noise-structure  nonlinearity  nordic  north-weingast-like  northeast  notation  nuclear  null-result  numerics  nutrition  obesity  objective-measure  objektbuch  occam  occident  oceans  old-anglo  open-closed  open-problems  openai  operational  opioids  optimate  optimism  optimization  order-disorder  org:anglo  org:biz  org:bleg  org:bv  org:data  org:davos  org:edge  org:edu  org:euro  org:foreign  org:gov  org:health  org:junk  org:lite  org:local  org:mag  org:mat  org:med  org:nat  org:ngo  org:popup  org:rec  org:sci  organization  organizing  orient  orwellian  os  oss  osx  outcome-risk  outdoors  overflow  paleocon  papers  parable  paradox  parallax  parasites-microbiome  pareto  parsimony  passive-investing  paste  paternal-age  path-dependence  patho-altruism  pdf  peace-violence  people  performance  personality  pessimism  phalanges  phd  philosophy  physics  pic  pinker  piracy  planning  pls  plt  poast  podcast  poetry  polanyi-marx  polarization  policy  polisci  political-econ  politics  poll  pop-diff  pop-structure  popsci  population  population-genetics  populism  postmortem  postrat  power  pragmatic  pre-ww2  prediction  prejudice  prepping  preprint  presentation  primitivism  privacy  pro-rata  probability  problem-solving  productivity  profile  programming  progression  propaganda  properties  property-rights  proposal  protestant-catholic  protocol  prudence  pseudoE  psych-architecture  psychiatry  psychology  public-goodish  public-health  putnam-like  puzzles  q-n-a  qra  quality  quantified-self  quantum  quantum-info  questions  quiz  quotes  race  random  randy-ayndy  ranking  rationality  ratty  realness  realpolitik  recent-selection  recommendations  red-queen  reddit  redistribution  reduction  reference  reflection  regional-scatter-plots  regression-to-mean  regularizer  regulation  reinforcement  relativity  religion  rent-seeking  replication  repo  reputation  research  retention  revealed-preference  review  revolution  rhetoric  right-wing  rigidity  risk  ritual  robotics  robust  roots  rot  running  russia  s-factor  s:*  s:***  saas  sampling-bias  sanctity-degradation  sapiens  scale  scaling-up  schelling  scholar  science  science-anxiety  scifi-fantasy  scitariat  search  securities  security  selection  self-interest  selfish-gene  sequential  serene  sex  sexuality  shift  SIGGRAPH  signal-noise  signaling  similarity  simler  simulation  singularity  sinosphere  skeleton  skunkworks  sky  slides  smart-contracts  social  social-capital  social-choice  social-norms  social-psych  social-science  social-structure  sociality  society  sociology  socs-and-mops  software  solid-study  solzhenitsyn  space  spearhead  speculation  speedometer  spengler  spock  sports  spreading  ssc  stackex  stagnation  startups  stat-power  statesmen  stats  status  stereotypes  store  stories  strategy  straussian  stream  street-fighting  stress  structure  study  stylized-facts  subculture  success  sulla  summary  supply-demand  survey  survival  sv  symbols  synthesis  systematic-ad-hoc  systems  tactics  tails  tapes  tcs  tcstariat  tech  technocracy  technology  techtariat  temperature  tensors  terrorism  tetlock  the-basilisk  the-bones  the-classics  the-great-west-whale  the-self  the-south  the-trenches  the-watchers  the-west  the-world-is-just-atoms  theos  thiel  things  thinking  threat-modeling  thucydides  time  time-preference  time-series  time-use  tip-of-tongue  todo  tools  top-n  toxo-gondii  toxoplasmosis  track-record  trade  tradeoffs  tradition  transitions  transportation  trends  tribalism  trivia  troll  trump  trust  truth  tumblr  turchin  tutorial  tv  twin-study  twitter  unaffiliated  uncertainty  unintended-consequences  uniqueness  unit  universalism-particularism  unsupervised  urban  urban-rural  urbit  us-them  usa  utopia-dystopia  vague  values  vampire-squid  variance-components  vgr  video  virtu  visual-understanding  visualization  visuo  vitality  volo-avolo  von-neumann  walls  war  water  waves  wealth  wealth-of-nations  weightlifting  weird  welfare-state  west-hunter  westminster  whiggish-hegelian  white-paper  whole-partial-many  wiki  wild-ideas  winner-take-all  wire-guided  within-group  within-without  woah  wonkish  workflow  working-stiff  world  world-war  worrydream  wtf  wut  X-not-about-Y  xenobio  yak-shaving  yarvin  yc  yoga  yvain  zeitgeist  zero-positive-sum  🌞  🎓  🎩  🐸  👽  🔬  🖥  🦀  🦉 

Copy this bookmark:



description:


tags: