nhaliday + effective-altruism   63

Links 3/19: Linkguini | Slate Star Codex
How did the descendants of the Mayan Indians end up in the Eastern Orthodox Church?

Does Parental Quality Matter? Study using three sources of parental variation that are mostly immune to genetic confounding find that “the strong parent-child correlation in education is largely causal”. For example, “the parent-child correlation in education is stronger with the parent that spends more time with the child”.

Before and after pictures of tech leaders like Jeff Bezos, Elon Musk, and Sergey Brin suggest they’re taking supplemental testosterone. And though it may help them keep looking young, Palladium points out that there might be other effects from having some of our most powerful businessmen on a hormone that increases risk-taking and ambition. They ask whether the new availability of testosterone supplements is prolonging Silicon Valley businessmen’s “brash entrepreneur” phase well past the point where they would normally become mature respectable elders. But it also hints at an almost opposite take: average testosterone levels have been falling for decades, so at this point these businessmen would be the only “normal” (by 1950s standards) men out there, and everyone else would be unprecedently risk-averse and boring. Paging Peter Thiel and everyone else who takes about how things “just worked better” in Eisenhower’s day.

China’s SesameCredit social monitoring system, widely portrayed as dystopian, has an 80% approval rate in China (vs. 19% neutral and 1% disapproval). The researchers admit that although all data is confidential and they are not affiliated with the Chinese government, their participants might not believe that confidently enough to answer honestly.

I know how much you guys love attacking EAs for “pathological altruism” or whatever terms you’re using nowadays, so here’s an article where rationalist community member John Beshir describes his experience getting malaria on purpose to help researchers test a vaccine.

Some evidence against the theory that missing fathers cause earlier menarche.

John Nerst of EverythingStudies’ political compass.
ratty  yvain  ssc  links  multi  biodet  behavioral-gen  regularizer  causation  contrarianism  education  correlation  parenting  developmental  direct-indirect  time  religion  christianity  eastern-europe  russia  latin-america  other-xtian  endocrine  trends  malaise  stagnation  thiel  barons  tech  sv  business  rot  zeitgeist  outcome-risk  critique  environmental-effects  poll  china  asia  authoritarianism  alt-inst  sentiment  policy  n-factor  individualism-collectivism  pro-rata  technocracy  managerial-state  civil-liberty  effective-altruism  subculture  wtf  disease  parasites-microbiome  patho-altruism  self-interest  lol  africa  experiment  medicine  expression-survival  things  dimensionality  degrees-of-freedom  sex  composition-decomposition  analytical-holistic  systematic-ad-hoc  coordination  alignment  cooperate-defect  politics  coalitions  ideology  left-wing  right-wing  summary  exit-voice  redistribution  randy-ayndy  welfare-state 
6 weeks ago by nhaliday
Information Processing: US Needs a National AI Strategy: A Sputnik Moment?
FT podcasts on US-China competition and AI: http://infoproc.blogspot.com/2018/05/ft-podcasts-on-us-china-competition-and.html

A new recommended career path for effective altruists: China specialist: https://80000hours.org/articles/china-careers/
Our rough guess is that it would be useful for there to be at least ten people in the community with good knowledge in this area within the next few years.

By “good knowledge” we mean they’ve spent at least 3 years studying these topics and/or living in China.

We chose ten because that would be enough for several people to cover each of the major areas listed (e.g. 4 within AI, 2 within biorisk, 2 within foreign relations, 1 in another area).

AI Policy and Governance Internship: https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/ai-policy-governance-internship/

https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/deciphering-chinas-ai-dream/
https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/Deciphering_Chinas_AI-Dream.pdf
Deciphering China’s AI Dream
The context, components, capabilities, and consequences of
China’s strategy to lead the world in AI

Europe’s AI delusion: https://www.politico.eu/article/opinion-europes-ai-delusion/
Brussels is failing to grasp threats and opportunities of artificial intelligence.
By BRUNO MAÇÃES

When the computer program AlphaGo beat the Chinese professional Go player Ke Jie in a three-part match, it didn’t take long for Beijing to realize the implications.

If algorithms can already surpass the abilities of a master Go player, it can’t be long before they will be similarly supreme in the activity to which the classic board game has always been compared: war.

As I’ve written before, the great conflict of our time is about who can control the next wave of technological development: the widespread application of artificial intelligence in the economic and military spheres.

...

If China’s ambitions sound plausible, that’s because the country’s achievements in deep learning are so impressive already. After Microsoft announced that its speech recognition software surpassed human-level language recognition in October 2016, Andrew Ng, then head of research at Baidu, tweeted: “We had surpassed human-level Chinese recognition in 2015; happy to see Microsoft also get there for English less than a year later.”

...

One obvious advantage China enjoys is access to almost unlimited pools of data. The machine-learning technologies boosting the current wave of AI expansion are as good as the amount of data they can use. That could be the number of people driving cars, photos labeled on the internet or voice samples for translation apps. With 700 or 800 million Chinese internet users and fewer data protection rules, China is as rich in data as the Gulf States are in oil.

How can Europe and the United States compete? They will have to be commensurately better in developing algorithms and computer power. Sadly, Europe is falling behind in these areas as well.

...

Chinese commentators have embraced the idea of a coming singularity: the moment when AI surpasses human ability. At that point a number of interesting things happen. First, future AI development will be conducted by AI itself, creating exponential feedback loops. Second, humans will become useless for waging war. At that point, the human mind will be unable to keep pace with robotized warfare. With advanced image recognition, data analytics, prediction systems, military brain science and unmanned systems, devastating wars might be waged and won in a matter of minutes.

...

The argument in the new strategy is fully defensive. It first considers how AI raises new threats and then goes on to discuss the opportunities. The EU and Chinese strategies follow opposite logics. Already on its second page, the text frets about the legal and ethical problems raised by AI and discusses the “legitimate concerns” the technology generates.

The EU’s strategy is organized around three concerns: the need to boost Europe’s AI capacity, ethical issues and social challenges. Unfortunately, even the first dimension quickly turns out to be about “European values” and the need to place “the human” at the center of AI — forgetting that the first word in AI is not “human” but “artificial.”

https://twitter.com/mr_scientism/status/983057591298351104
https://archive.is/m3Njh
US military: "LOL, China thinks it's going to be a major player in AI, but we've got all the top AI researchers. You guys will help us develop weapons, right?"

US AI researchers: "No."

US military: "But... maybe just a computer vision app."

US AI researchers: "NO."

https://www.theverge.com/2018/4/4/17196818/ai-boycot-killer-robots-kaist-university-hanwha
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/04/04/technology/google-letter-ceo-pentagon-project.html
https://twitter.com/mr_scientism/status/981685030417326080
https://archive.is/3wbHm
AI-risk was a mistake.
hsu  scitariat  commentary  video  presentation  comparison  usa  china  asia  sinosphere  frontier  technology  science  ai  speedometer  innovation  google  barons  deepgoog  stories  white-paper  strategy  migration  iran  human-capital  corporation  creative  alien-character  military  human-ml  nationalism-globalism  security  investing  government  games  deterrence  defense  nuclear  arms  competition  risk  ai-control  musk  optimism  multi  news  org:mag  europe  EU  80000-hours  effective-altruism  proposal  article  realness  offense-defense  war  biotech  altruism  language  foreign-lang  philosophy  the-great-west-whale  enhancement  foreign-policy  geopolitics  anglo  jobs  career  planning  hmm  travel  charity  tech  intel  media  teaching  tutoring  russia  india  miri-cfar  pdf  automation  class  labor  polisci  society  trust  n-factor  corruption  leviathan  ethics  authoritarianism  individualism-collectivism  revolution  economics  inequality  civic  law  regulation  data  scale  pro-rata  capital  zero-positive-sum  cooperate-defect  distribution  time-series  tre 
february 2018 by nhaliday
Charity Cost-Effectiveness in an Uncertain World – Foundational Research Institute
Evaluating the effectiveness of our actions, or even just whether they're positive or negative by our values, is very difficult. One approach is to focus on clear, quantifiable metrics and assume that the larger, indirect considerations just kind of work out. Another way to deal with uncertainty is to focus on actions that seem likely to have generally positive effects across many scenarios, and often this approach amounts to meta-level activities like encouraging positive-sum institutions, philosophical inquiry, and effective altruism in general. When we consider flow-through effects of our actions, the seemingly vast gaps in cost-effectiveness among charities are humbled to more modest differences, and we begin to find more worth in the diversity of activities that different people are pursuing.
ratty  effective-altruism  subculture  article  decision-making  miri-cfar  charity  uncertainty  moments  reflection  regularizer  wire-guided  robust  outcome-risk  flexibility  🤖  spock  info-dynamics  efficiency  arbitrage 
august 2017 by nhaliday
Annotating Greg Cochran’s interview with James Miller
https://westhunt.wordpress.com/2017/04/05/interview-2/
opinion of Scott and Hanson: https://westhunt.wordpress.com/2017/04/05/interview-2/#comment-90238
Greg's methodist: https://westhunt.wordpress.com/2017/04/05/interview-2/#comment-90256
https://westhunt.wordpress.com/2017/04/05/interview-2/#comment-90299
You have to consider the relative strengths of Japan and the USA. USA was ~10x stronger, industrially, which is what mattered. Technically superior (radar, Manhattan project). Almost entirely self-sufficient in natural resources. Japan was sure to lose, and too crazy to quit, which meant that they would lose after being smashed flat.
--
There’s a fairly common way of looking at things in which the bad guys are not at fault because they’re bad guys, born that way, and thus can’t help it. Well, we can’t help it either, so the hell with them. I don’t think we had to respect Japan’s innate need to fuck everybody in China to death.

https://westhunt.wordpress.com/2017/03/25/ramble-on/
https://westhunt.wordpress.com/2017/03/24/topics/
https://soundcloud.com/user-519115521/greg-cochran-part-1
2nd part: https://pinboard.in/u:nhaliday/b:9ab84243b967

some additional things:
- political correctness, the Cathedral and the left (personnel continuity but not ideology/value) at start
- joke: KT impact = asteroid mining, every mass extinction = intelligent life destroying itself
- Alawites: not really Muslim, women liberated because "they don't have souls", ended up running shit in Syria because they were only ones that wanted to help the British during colonial era
- solution to Syria: "put the Alawites in NYC"
- Zimbabwe was OK for a while, if South Africa goes sour, just "put the Boers in NYC" (Miller: left would probably say they are "culturally incompatible", lol)
- story about Lincoln and his great-great-great-grandfather
- skepticism of free speech
- free speech, authoritarianism, and defending against the Mongols
- Scott crazy (not in a terrible way), LW crazy (genetics), ex.: polyamory
- TFP or microbio are better investments than stereotypical EA stuff
- just ban AI worldwide (bully other countries to enforce)
- bit of a back-and-forth about macroeconomics
- not sure climate change will be huge issue. world's been much warmer before and still had a lot of mammals, etc.
- he quite likes Pseudoerasmus
- shits on modern conservatism/Bret Stephens a bit

- mentions Japan having industrial base a tenth the size of the US's and no chance of winning WW2 around 11m mark
- describes himself as "fairly religious" around 20m mark
- 27m30s: Eisenhower was smart, read Carlyle, classical history, etc.

but was Nixon smarter?: https://www.gnxp.com/WordPress/2019/03/18/open-thread-03-18-2019/
The Scandals of Meritocracy. Virtue vs. competence. Would you rather have a boss who is evil but competent, or good but incompetent? The reality is you have to balance the two. Richard Nixon was probably smarter that Dwight Eisenhower in raw g, but Eisenhower was probably a better person.
org:med  west-hunter  scitariat  summary  links  podcast  audio  big-picture  westminster  politics  culture-war  academia  left-wing  ideology  biodet  error  crooked  bounded-cognition  stories  history  early-modern  africa  developing-world  death  mostly-modern  deterrence  japan  asia  war  meta:war  risk  ai  climate-change  speculation  agriculture  environment  prediction  religion  islam  iraq-syria  gender  dominant-minority  labor  econotariat  cracker-econ  coalitions  infrastructure  parasites-microbiome  medicine  low-hanging  biotech  terrorism  civil-liberty  civic  social-science  randy-ayndy  law  polisci  government  egalitarianism-hierarchy  expression-survival  disease  commentary  authoritarianism  being-right  europe  nordic  cohesion  heuristic  anglosphere  revolution  the-south  usa  thinking  info-dynamics  yvain  ssc  lesswrong  ratty  subculture  values  descriptive  epistemic  cost-disease  effective-altruism  charity  econ-productivity  technology  rhetoric  metameta  ai-control  critique  sociology  arms  paying-rent  parsimony  writing  realness  migration  eco 
april 2017 by nhaliday
Discovering Limits to Growth | Do the Math
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Limits_to_Growth
http://www.unz.com/akarlin/review-limits-to-growth-meadows/
https://foundational-research.org/the-future-of-growth-near-zero-growth-rates/
One may of course be skeptical that this general trend will also apply to the growth of our technology and economy at large, as innovation seems to continually postpone our clash with the ceiling, yet it seems inescapable that it must. For in light of what we know about physics, we can conclude that exponential growth of the kinds we see today, in technology in particular and in our economy more generally, must come to an end, and do so relatively soon.
scitariat  prediction  hmm  economics  growth-econ  biophysical-econ  world  energy-resources  the-world-is-just-atoms  books  summary  quotes  commentary  malthus  models  dynamical  🐸  mena4  demographics  environment  org:bleg  nibble  regularizer  science-anxiety  deep-materialism  nihil  the-bones  whiggish-hegelian  multi  tetlock  trends  wiki  macro  pessimism  eh  primitivism  new-religion  cynicism-idealism  gnon  review  recommendations  long-short-run  futurism  ratty  miri-cfar  effective-altruism  hanson  econ-metrics  ems  magnitude  street-fighting  nitty-gritty  physics  data  phys-energy  🔬  multiplicative  iteration-recursion 
march 2017 by nhaliday
The Morality of Sperm Donation - Gwern.net
There is a third benefit. Surprisingly, sperm donor-assisted pregnancies result in 1/5th the number of birth defects as pregnancies in general. (The CDC tells me that the defect rate is 1 in 33 or ~3%, and that birth defects in 2006 directly killed 5,819 infants.) Much of this large benefit stems from the paternal age effect - older fathers’ sperm result in more birth defects, lowered IQ, linked to autism, etc. To the extent that a sperm donor donating displaces, at the margin, the conception of future offspring at an elder age, donation directly reduces birth defects and the other mentioned effects.

Indeed, given the mixed data on whether sperm count rates are falling with time and the more reliable data on the striking increases with paternal age of negative effects like birth defects or autism - perhaps due to increased mutations4 - it may be worthwhile even for non-donators to bank their sperm for later use. A quick perusal of one sperm bank’s prices suggests that a 20-year old could store a large sample of his sperm until he is 40 for ~$5000 with the ultimate artificial insemination adding <$4000 to the final cost; if this resulted in cutting the risk of his children being autistic by 30%, would it be worthwhile? Perhaps. It is worth considering.
ratty  gwern  hmm  sex  genetics  genetic-load  paternal-age  parenting  developmental  disease  data  effective-altruism  arbitrage  cost-benefit  analysis  faq  planning 
february 2017 by nhaliday
Funding the Reproducibility Crises as effective giving - Less Wrong Discussion
I had definitely noticed all the different nutrition, psychology, and biological initiatives like OSF or the Reproducibility Project, and how expensive they all are, but I didn't realize that they all owed their funding to a single source. I'm very glad Arnold is doing this, but I now feel more pessimistic about academia than when I assumed that the funding for all this was coming from a broad coalition of universities and nonprofits etc....
ratty  lesswrong  commentary  replication  science  meta:science  effective-altruism  cause  money  error  gwern  power  info-dynamics 
january 2017 by nhaliday
Links 1/17: Inaugurl Address | Slate Star Codex
“Fanatics got into the Capitol building and committed a mass shooting on Congress while it was in session, and you’ve never heard of them…people have completely forgotten that in 1972 we had over nineteen hundred domestic bombings in the United States” A review of Days Of Rage and history lesson on the 1970s underground. Highly recommended.

New Yorker: The Mosul Dam in Iraq could fail soon, potentially causing a flash flood and hundreds of thousands of deaths.

An ecologist denounces calls to “drain the swamp” as an insult to swamps: “Given the sea of misinformation we currently find ourselves swimming in, I feel this is as good a time as any to clarify what swamps actually are and why they should be regarded as wonderful and valuable parts of nature rather than objects of derision and hatred.” If any of you are oceanographers, can you troll the Washington Post for me by denouncing their use of the term “sea of misinformation”?

The Seasteading Institute announces a deal with French Polynesia to build the first seastead in a lagoon there. I’m still confused on whether they’ve got funding or anything else besides the location. Still a big step.

80,000 Hours’ guide to what charities to give to this season. A good supplement to GiveWell’s Top Charities list

Vox: Why the war on poverty failed, and what to do now. In the form of a long and detailed history of Brooklyn’s Bedford-Stuyveysant neighborhood. Not clear that anyone actually knows what to do now beyond a few good common-sense suggestions.

RIP utilitarian philosopher Derek Parfit: “When I believed the non-reductionist view [of personal identity], I also cared more about my inevitable death. After my death, there will [be] no one living who will be me. I can now redescribe this fact. Though there will later be many experiences, none of these experiences will be connected to my present experiences by chains of such direct connections as those involved in experience-memory, or in the carrying out of an earlier intention. Some of these future experiences may be related to my present experiences in less direct ways. There will later be some memories about my life. And there may later be thoughts that are influenced by mine, or things done as the result of my advice. My death will break the more direct relations between my present experiences and future experiences, but it will not break various other relations. This is all there is to the fact that there will be no one living who will be me. Now that I have seen this, my death seems to me less bad.”

Alex K. Chen on Quora on the speculation that Ritalin may be long-term safer than Adderall. See also this review article. This is definitely not yet psychiatric common knowledge or consensus.

Meta-analysis in the American Journal Of Nutrition: Red meat does not increase risk of cardiovascular disease.

Acemoglu and Restropo: Economic stagnation is not due to aging populations.

User dogtasteslikechicken at the r/slatestarcodex subreddit gives a good summary of the Flynn Effect. But it looks like he is confused about some of the same things I am. For example, rich people and the nobility probably had good nutrition and education in the past. So we might expect a Flynn effect based on nutrition and education not to affect them as much. But if this were true, we would expect a skewed or bimodal distribution in the past (un-Flynned poor people with bad nutrition + Flynned rich people with good nutrition), which I don’t think ever clearly showed up.

Some fallout from the Buzzfeed story on growth mindset I linked last week. The Spectator published what I think is a really nasty and evidence-free denunciation of the phenomenon. Mindset researcher David Yeager has tried to set the record straight and argues that growth mindset actually replicates just fine, eg in this paper, and that several other large and rigorous replications are being attempted. Dweck herself has a reply up here. And Timothy Bates put his failed replications online here. Looks like it will be an interesting year in this field.

Does pupil size correlate with intelligence? (blog post, paper)
ratty  yvain  ssc  links  politics  terrorism  history  left-wing  risk  trump  lol  randy-ayndy  thiel  announcement  effective-altruism  charity  checklists  news  org:data  class  inequality  philosophy  death  profile  dennett  drugs  nootropics  attention  safety  neuro  study  meta-analysis  cardio  nutrition  food  acemoglu  economics  growth-econ  stagnation  demographics  contrarianism  trends  reddit  social  discussion  iq  growth  psychology  social-psych  albion  critique  replication  org:lite  iraq-syria  MENA  biodet  commentary  multi  current-events  growth-mindset 
january 2017 by nhaliday
The Elephant in the Brain: Hidden Motives in Everday Life
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V84_F1QWdeU

A Book Response Prediction: https://www.overcomingbias.com/2017/03/a-book-response-prediction.html
I predict that one of the most common responses will be something like “extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence.” While the evidence we offer is suggestive, for claims as counterintuitive as ours on topics as important as these, evidence should be held to a higher standard than the one our book meets. We should shut up until we can prove our claims.

I predict that another of the most common responses will be something like “this is all well known.” Wise observers have known and mentioned such things for centuries. Perhaps foolish technocrats who only read in their narrow literatures are ignorant of such things, but our book doesn’t add much to what true scholars and thinkers have long known.

https://nintil.com/2018/01/16/this-review-is-not-about-reviewing-the-elephant-in-the-brain/
http://www.overcomingbias.com/2018/01/a-long-review-of-elephant-in-the-brain.html
https://nintil.com/2018/01/28/ad-hoc-explanations-a-rejoinder-to-hanson/

Elephant in the Brain on Religious Hypocrisy:
http://econlog.econlib.org/archives/2018/01/elephant_in_the.html
http://www.overcomingbias.com/2018/01/caplan-critiques-our-religion-chapter.html
books  postrat  simler  hanson  impro  anthropology  insight  todo  X-not-about-Y  signaling  🦀  new-religion  psychology  contrarianism  👽  ratty  rationality  hidden-motives  2017  s:**  p:null  ideas  impetus  multi  video  presentation  unaffiliated  review  summary  education  higher-ed  human-capital  propaganda  nationalism-globalism  civic  domestication  medicine  meta:medicine  healthcare  economics  behavioral-econ  supply-demand  roots  questions  charity  hypocrisy  peter-singer  big-peeps  philosophy  morality  ethics  formal-values  cog-psych  evopsych  thinking  conceptual-vocab  intricacy  clarity  accuracy  truth  is-ought  realness  religion  theos  christianity  islam  cultural-dynamics  within-without  neurons  EEA  analysis  article  links  meta-analysis  survey  judaism  compensation  labor  correlation  endogenous-exogenous  causation  critique  politics  government  polisci  political-econ  emotion  health  study  list  class  art  status  effective-altruism  evidence-based  epistemic  error  contradiction  prediction  culture  aphorism  quotes  discovery  no 
august 2016 by nhaliday

related tags

80000-hours  ability-competence  academia  accuracy  acemoglu  acmtariat  advice  aesthetics  africa  age-generation  aging  agriculture  ai  ai-control  albion  algorithms  alien-character  alignment  alt-inst  altruism  analysis  analytical-holistic  anglo  anglosphere  announcement  anthropic  anthropology  antidemos  aphorism  arbitrage  aristos  arms  art  article  asia  attaq  attention  audio  authoritarianism  automation  axioms  backup  barons  behavioral-econ  behavioral-gen  being-becoming  being-right  biases  big-peeps  big-picture  biodet  biophysical-econ  biotech  blog  books  bostrom  bounded-cognition  brands  britain  broad-econ  business  c:***  california  caltech  canada  canon  capital  capitalism  cardio  career  causation  cause  charity  chart  checklists  china  christianity  civic  civil-liberty  clarity  class  clever-rats  climate-change  coalitions  coarse-fine  cocktail  cog-psych  cohesion  commentary  community  comparison  compensation  competition  composition-decomposition  computer-vision  conceptual-vocab  confluence  conquest-empire  contradiction  contrarianism  cooperate-defect  coordination  core-rats  corporation  correlation  corruption  cost-benefit  cost-disease  counter-revolution  courage  cracker-econ  creative  crime  criminal-justice  criminology  critique  crooked  cultural-dynamics  culture  culture-war  curiosity  current-events  cycles  cynicism-idealism  darwinian  data  database  death  debate  decentralized  decision-making  decision-theory  deep-materialism  deepgoog  defense  degrees-of-freedom  dementia  demographics  dennett  descriptive  detail-architecture  deterrence  developing-world  developmental  diaspora  dimensionality  direct-indirect  discovery  discrimination  discussion  disease  distribution  domestication  dominant-minority  drugs  duty  dynamical  early-modern  eastern-europe  econ-metrics  econ-productivity  economics  econotariat  education  EEA  effective-altruism  efficiency  egalitarianism-hierarchy  eh  elections  elite  emotion  ems  endocrine  endogenous-exogenous  energy-resources  enhancement  enlightenment-renaissance-restoration-reformation  environment  environmental-effects  envy  epistemic  equilibrium  error  essay  estimate  ethanol  ethics  EU  europe  evidence-based  evopsych  exit-voice  experiment  explanans  expression-survival  externalities  extra-introversion  facebook  faq  fellowship  fermi  finance  flexibility  flux-stasis  food  foreign-lang  foreign-policy  formal-values  forum  free-riding  frontier  fungibility-liquidity  futurism  gallic  game-theory  games  gender  genetic-load  genetics  geopolitics  germanic  gnon  gnosis-logos  gnxp  google  gotchas  government  grad-school  gray-econ  group-selection  growth  growth-econ  growth-mindset  GT-101  guide  guilt-shame  gwern  hacker  hanson  hardware  health  healthcare  heavy-industry  heuristic  hidden-motives  high-variance  higher-ed  history  hmm  hsu  human-capital  human-ml  hypocrisy  ideas  identity-politics  ideology  idk  illusion  impact  impetus  impro  incentives  india  individualism-collectivism  inequality  info-dynamics  info-econ  info-foraging  infographic  infrastructure  innovation  insight  institutions  intel  internet  intervention  interview  intricacy  investing  iq  iran  iraq-syria  is-ought  islam  iteration-recursion  japan  jobs  judaism  kinship  knowledge  labor  language  latin-america  law  left-wing  legacy  len:short  lesswrong  letters  leviathan  links  list  literature  local-global  lol  long-short-run  long-term  low-hanging  machiavelli  machine-learning  macro  madisonian  magnitude  malaise  malthus  management  managerial-state  marginal-rev  market-failure  markets  martial  measurement  media  medicine  MENA  mena4  meta-analysis  meta:medicine  meta:prediction  meta:rhetoric  meta:science  meta:war  metameta  micro  migration  military  miri-cfar  mobility  models  modernity  mokyr-allen-mccloskey  moments  monetary-fiscal  money  morality  mostly-modern  multi  multiplicative  murray  musk  n-factor  nationalism-globalism  nature  near-far  neocons  neuro  neurons  new-religion  news  nibble  nihil  nitty-gritty  nl-and-so-can-you  no-go  nootropics  nordic  novelty  nuclear  nutrition  occident  offense-defense  old-anglo  open-closed  optimism  org:biz  org:bleg  org:data  org:davos  org:health  org:lite  org:mag  org:med  org:ngo  org:popup  org:rec  org:sci  organization  orient  other-xtian  outcome-risk  oxbridge  p:null  p:whenever  parallax  parasites-microbiome  parenting  pareto  parsimony  paternal-age  patho-altruism  paying-rent  pdf  peace-violence  people  personality  persuasion  pessimism  peter-singer  pharma  phd  philosophy  phys-energy  physics  pic  piketty  planning  poast  podcast  poetry  policy  polis  polisci  political-econ  politics  poll  postrat  power  prediction  prediction-markets  presentation  primitivism  prioritizing  priors-posteriors  privacy  pro-rata  profile  project  propaganda  property-rights  proposal  protestant-catholic  prudence  pseudoE  psychiatry  psychology  public-goodish  quality  quantum  quantum-info  questions  quixotic  quiz  quotes  race  randy-ayndy  ranking  rationality  ratty  reading  realness  reason  recommendations  recruiting  reddit  redistribution  reflection  regularizer  regulation  religion  rent-seeking  replication  research  research-program  responsibility  review  revolution  rhetoric  right-wing  risk  robotics  robust  roots  rot  russia  s:*  s:**  s:null  safety  scale  science  science-anxiety  scitariat  security  self-interest  sentiment  sex  signaling  simler  sinosphere  skunkworks  sleep  social  social-choice  social-norms  social-psych  social-science  society  sociology  software  speaking  speculation  speedometer  spock  spreading  ssc  stagnation  startups  statesmen  status  stock-flow  stories  strategy  straussian  stream  street-fighting  structure  study  subculture  success  sulla  summary  supply-demand  survey  sv  systematic-ad-hoc  tactics  tails  tcs  teaching  tech  technocracy  technology  temperature  terrorism  tetlock  the-bones  the-classics  the-great-west-whale  the-self  the-south  the-world-is-just-atoms  theory-of-mind  theos  thiel  things  thinking  threat-modeling  time  time-series  time-use  tip-of-tongue  todo  top-n  toxoplasmosis  track-record  trade  tradeoffs  travel  trends  tribalism  trump  trust  truth  tutoring  twitter  unaffiliated  uncertainty  universalism-particularism  us-them  usa  values  vampire-squid  video  virtu  visualization  volo-avolo  war  welfare-state  west-hunter  westminster  whiggish-hegelian  white-paper  wiki  winner-take-all  wire-guided  within-without  wonkish  working-stiff  world  world-war  writing  wtf  wut  X-not-about-Y  yvain  zeitgeist  zero-positive-sum  🐸  👽  🔬  🖥  🤖  🦀  🦉 

Copy this bookmark:



description:


tags: