nhaliday + business-models   29

What Peter Thiel thinks about AI risk - Less Wrong
TL;DR: he thinks its an issue but also feels AGI is very distant and hence less worried about it than Musk.

I recommend the rest of the lecture as well, it's a good summary of "Zero to One"  and a good QA afterwards.

For context, in case anyone doesn't realize: Thiel has been MIRI's top donor throughout its history.

other stuff:
nice interview question: "thing you know is true that not everyone agrees on?"
"learning from failure overrated"
cleantech a huge market, hard to compete
software makes for easy monopolies (zero marginal costs, network effects, etc.)
for most of history inventors did not benefit much (continuous competition)
ethical behavior is a luxury of monopoly
ratty  lesswrong  commentary  ai  ai-control  risk  futurism  technology  speedometer  audio  presentation  musk  thiel  barons  frontier  miri-cfar  charity  people  track-record  venture  startups  entrepreneurialism  contrarianism  competition  market-power  business  google  truth  management  leadership  socs-and-mops  dark-arts  skunkworks  hard-tech  energy-resources  wire-guided  learning  software  sv  tech  network-structure  scale  marginal  cost-benefit  innovation  industrial-revolution  economics  growth-econ  capitalism  comparison  nationalism-globalism  china  asia  trade  stagnation  things  dimensionality  exploratory  world  developing-world  thinking  definite-planning  optimism  pessimism  intricacy  politics  war  career  planning  supply-demand  labor  science  engineering  dirty-hands  biophysical-econ  migration  human-capital  policy  canada  anglo  winner-take-all  polarization  amazon  business-models  allodium  civilization  the-classics  microsoft  analogy  gibbon  conquest-empire  realness  cynicism-idealism  org:edu  open-closed  ethics  incentives  m 
february 2018 by nhaliday
Is the economy illegible? | askblog
In the model of the economy as a GDP factory, the most fundamental equation is the production function, Y = f(K,L).

This says that total output (Y) is determined by the total amount of capital (K) and the total amount of labor (L).

Let me stipulate that the economy is legible to the extent that this model can be applied usefully to explain economic developments. I want to point out that the economy, while never as legible as economists might have thought, is rapidly becoming less legible.
econotariat  cracker-econ  economics  macro  big-picture  empirical  legibility  let-me-see  metrics  measurement  econ-metrics  volo-avolo  securities  markets  amazon  business-models  business  tech  sv  corporation  inequality  compensation  polarization  econ-productivity  stagnation  monetary-fiscal  models  complex-systems  map-territory  thinking  nationalism-globalism  time-preference  cost-disease  education  healthcare  composition-decomposition  econometrics  methodology  lens  arrows  labor  capital  trends  intricacy  🎩  moments  winner-take-all  efficiency  input-output 
august 2017 by nhaliday
China ponders public morality after video of gruesome death - ABC News
Even as China presents itself outwardly as a prosperous rising power, around kitchen tables and in private WeChat groups, Chinese citizens routinely grumble about a nation that's gone bankrupt when it comes to two qualities: "suzhi," or "personal character," and "dixian," literally "bottom line" — or a basic, inviolable sense of right and wrong.

The only term that can really be used for China is No good deed goes unpunished. From someone who's of Chinese ethnic but not a Chinese national who has lived in the mainlands for the last 10 years.

The stories about extortionists are real, and they happen all over China. I'm genuinely terrified to help say an elderly who slipped on the pavement, or got nicked by a passing moped because I have no idea whether the victim will point at me and claim I caused the incident and demand payment from me. Police are useless and more often than not will ask the wrongly accused to make a small payment to the "victim" and be on their way, a little money to save time arguing with the extortionist. This has happened so much people are now taking videos of them helping anyone, in case their good deed goes sour.

A news story from about 2 weeks back, a man knew a friend was a bit unhappy/feeling down and invited said friend to his home to talk about this, to cheer her up. When he had his back towards the friend while getting some fruits, she jumped out the balcony and died. The family sued the man for 300k, and the court upheld their lawsuit but toned it down to 80k, saying the man is 20% responsible for her death, claiming he knows the friend was unhappy and should have kept a closer eye on her. Trying to help a friend, and that's what you get for not being to help, imagine why people don't want to help anymore.

backup  news  org:lite  video  death  nihil  china  asia  sinosphere  orient  n-factor  morality  ethics  multi  reddit  social  commentary  trust  corruption  org:rec  org:anglo  lol  current-events  business  business-models  crime  integrity  honor 
july 2017 by nhaliday
- the genetic book of the dead [Dawkins]
- complementarity [Frank Wilczek]
- relative information
- effective theory [Lisa Randall]
- affordances [Dennett]
- spontaneous symmetry breaking
- relatedly, equipoise [Nicholas Christakis]
- case-based reasoning
- population reasoning (eg, common law)
- criticality [Cesar Hidalgo]
- Haldan's law of the right size (!SCALE!)
- polygenic scores
- non-ergodic
- ansatz
- state [Aaronson]: http://www.scottaaronson.com/blog/?p=3075
- transfer learning
- effect size
- satisficing
- scaling
- the breeder's equation [Greg Cochran]
- impedance matching

- reciprocal altruism
- life history [Plomin]
- intellectual honesty [Sam Harris]
- coalitional instinct (interesting claim: building coalitions around "rationality" actually makes it more difficult to update on new evidence as it makes you look like a bad person, eg, the Cathedral)
basically same: https://twitter.com/ortoiseortoise/status/903682354367143936

more: https://www.edge.org/conversation/john_tooby-coalitional-instincts

interesting timing. how woke is this dude?
org:edge  2017  technology  discussion  trends  list  expert  science  top-n  frontier  multi  big-picture  links  the-world-is-just-atoms  metameta  🔬  scitariat  conceptual-vocab  coalitions  q-n-a  psychology  social-psych  anthropology  instinct  coordination  duty  power  status  info-dynamics  cultural-dynamics  being-right  realness  cooperate-defect  westminster  chart  zeitgeist  rot  roots  epistemic  rationality  meta:science  analogy  physics  electromag  geoengineering  environment  atmosphere  climate-change  waves  information-theory  bits  marginal  quantum  metabuch  homo-hetero  thinking  sapiens  genetics  genomics  evolution  bio  GT-101  low-hanging  minimum-viable  dennett  philosophy  cog-psych  neurons  symmetry  humility  life-history  social-structure  GWAS  behavioral-gen  biodet  missing-heritability  ergodic  machine-learning  generalization  west-hunter  population-genetics  methodology  blowhards  spearhead  group-level  scale  magnitude  business  scaling-tech  tech  business-models  optimization  effect-size  aaronson  state  bare-hands  problem-solving  politics 
may 2017 by nhaliday
Greentoe.com - Name your price on Cameras, TVs, Optics, Electronics and more!
slightly tweaked eBay? wonder what this is like from a mechanism design perspective
hmm  business-models  tech  organization  startups  store 
november 2016 by nhaliday

bundles : bizness

related tags

2016-election  aaronson  academia  advertising  advice  aggregator  agriculture  ai  ai-control  alignment  allodium  altruism  amazon  analogy  analysis  analytical-holistic  anglo  anglosphere  anthropology  antidemos  aphorism  apollonian-dionysian  apple  arbitrage  aristos  arrows  art  asia  atmosphere  attention  audio  authoritarianism  automation  axelrod  backup  bare-hands  barons  behavioral-gen  being-becoming  being-right  benevolence  big-peeps  big-picture  bio  biodet  bioinformatics  biophysical-econ  biotech  bits  blockchain  blowhards  brands  browser  business  business-models  california  canada  cancer  canon  capital  capitalism  career  cartoons  charity  chart  china  christianity  civil-liberty  civilization  class  class-warfare  climate-change  coalitions  coarse-fine  cog-psych  cohesion  cold-war  collaboration  commentary  communication  community  comparison  compensation  competition  complement-substitute  complex-systems  composition-decomposition  computation  computer-vision  conceptual-vocab  concrete  conquest-empire  constraint-satisfaction  contracts  contradiction  contrarianism  cool  cooperate-defect  coordination  corporation  correlation  corruption  cost-benefit  cost-disease  counter-revolution  courage  course  cracker-econ  creative  crime  critique  crooked  cryptocurrency  cs  cultural-dynamics  culture-war  current-events  cycles  cynicism-idealism  dark-arts  darwinian  data  database  death  debate  debt  decentralized  decision-making  deep-materialism  definite-planning  degrees-of-freedom  democracy  dennett  detail-architecture  developing-world  dimensionality  dirty-hands  discussion  distribution  diversity  drugs  duplication  duty  early-modern  econ-metrics  econ-productivity  econometrics  economics  econotariat  education  effect-size  efficiency  egalitarianism-hierarchy  einstein  electromag  elite  email  embedded-cognition  emergent  empirical  ems  energy-resources  engineering  enhancement  entrepreneurialism  environment  envy  epistemic  ergodic  essence-existence  estimate  ethics  europe  evolution  examples  expert  expert-experience  explanans  exploratory  extra-introversion  facebook  failure  fashun  FDA  feudal  fiction  finance  flexibility  focus  frontier  futurism  gallic  games  generalization  genetics  genomics  geoengineering  geography  germanic  giants  gibbon  gig-econ  gnosis-logos  god-man-beast-victim  google  government  group-level  growth-econ  GT-101  GWAS  hard-tech  harvard  healthcare  heterodox  hidden-motives  high-variance  higher-ed  history  hmm  hn  homo-hetero  honor  human-capital  human-ml  humility  hypocrisy  ideas  identity-politics  ideology  idk  illusion  impetus  incentives  individualism-collectivism  industrial-org  industrial-revolution  inequality  info-dynamics  information-theory  innovation  input-output  insight  instinct  institutions  integrity  intel  intellectual-property  interdisciplinary  interests  internet  intricacy  investing  iron-age  is-ought  iteration-recursion  janus  japan  journos-pundits  justice  knowledge  kumbaya-kult  labor  latin-america  law  leadership  leaks  learning  lecture-notes  left-wing  legibility  lens  lesswrong  let-me-see  leviathan  life-history  limits  links  list  literature  local-global  lol  longevity  love-hate  low-hanging  machine-learning  macro  madisonian  magnitude  malaise  management  managerial-state  map-territory  marginal  market-power  markets  math  math.CA  measurement  media  medicine  mediterranean  meta:science  metabuch  metameta  methodology  metrics  microbiz  micropayments  microsoft  migration  minimum-viable  miri-cfar  missing-heritability  mobile  models  moments  monetary-fiscal  money  money-for-time  morality  mostly-modern  multi  multiplicative  musk  mystic  myth  n-factor  narrative  nascent-state  nationalism-globalism  nature  negotiation  network-structure  neuro  neurons  new-religion  news  nibble  nietzschean  nihil  noble-lie  northeast  nuclear  nutrition  nyc  occident  old-anglo  open-closed  optimism  optimization  order-disorder  org:anglo  org:biz  org:bleg  org:edge  org:edu  org:lite  org:mag  org:nat  org:rec  org:sci  organization  organizing  orient  oss  outcome-risk  outliers  papers  parable  paradox  parallax  patience  peace-violence  people  personality  pessimism  phalanges  pharma  phase-transition  philosophy  physics  piracy  planning  plots  polanyi-marx  polarization  policy  polisci  politics  population-genetics  postmortem  power  power-law  pre-ww2  prediction  preference-falsification  presentation  primitivism  princeton  prioritizing  privacy  pro-rata  probability  problem-solving  product-management  productivity  profile  programming  properties  property-rights  prudence  psych-architecture  psychology  publishing  q-n-a  quantum  questions  quotes  random  randy-ayndy  ranking  rant  rationality  ratty  realness  reason  recruiting  reddit  redistribution  reflection  regulation  religion  rent-seeking  research  revolution  rhetoric  rhythm  risk  ritual  robotics  roots  rot  sanctity-degradation  sapiens  scale  scaling-tech  schelling  scholar  scholar-pack  science  scifi-fantasy  scitariat  search  securities  shakespeare  shift  signal-noise  signaling  singularity  sinosphere  skeleton  skunkworks  slippery-slope  smart-contracts  social  social-choice  social-norms  social-psych  social-structure  socs-and-mops  software  space  spearhead  speed  speedometer  stagnation  stanford  startups  stat-mech  state  statesmen  stats  status  stereotypes  stochastic-processes  stock-flow  store  stories  strategy  straussian  structure  stylized-facts  success  summary  supply-demand  sv  symmetry  synchrony  szabo  tactics  tails  tcstariat  tech  technology  techtariat  telos-atelos  the-basilisk  the-classics  the-devil  the-founding  the-great-west-whale  the-watchers  the-west  the-world-is-just-atoms  theory-of-mind  theos  thick-thin  thiel  things  thinking  time  time-preference  tools  top-n  toxoplasmosis  track-record  trade  tradeoffs  transportation  trends  tribalism  trust  truth  twitter  unaffiliated  uncertainty  unintended-consequences  urban  urban-rural  us-them  usa  venture  video  virtu  visual-understanding  visualization  vitality  volo-avolo  war  waves  wealth  web  welfare-state  west-hunter  westminster  winner-take-all  wire-guided  wisdom  within-without  wonkish  workflow  world  world-war  X-not-about-Y  zeitgeist  zero-positive-sum  zooming  🎓  🎩  🔬  🖥 

Copy this bookmark: