Opinion | How to Make a Big Decision - The New York Times
In the early 1980s, a business school professor named Paul Nutt set out to catalog real-world decisions the way a botanist might catalog the various types of vegetation growing in a rain forest. In his initial study, published in 1984, he analyzed 78 decisions made by senior managers at a range of public and private organizations in the United States and Canada: insurance companies, government agencies, hospitals, consulting firms.

The most striking finding in Professor Nutt’s research was this: Only 15 percent of the decisions he studied involved a stage where the decision makers actively sought out a new option beyond the initial choices on the table. In a later study, he found that only 29 percent of organizational decision makers contemplated more than one alternative.

This turns out to be a bad strategy. Over the years, Professor Nutt and other researchers have demonstrated a strong correlation between the number of alternatives deliberated and the ultimate success of the decision itself. In one of his studies, Professor Nutt found that participants who considered only one alternative ultimately judged their decision a failure more than 50 percent of the time, while decisions that involved contemplating at least two alternatives were felt to be successes two-thirds of the time.

What’s the best way to expand your pool of options? Researchers suggest that if possible, you diversify the group of people who are helping make the decision.

hile the more diverse groups were better at reaching the truth, they were also far less confident in the decisions they made. They were both more likely to be right and, at the same time, more open to the idea that they might be wrong.

The psychologist Gary Klein has developed a variation on this technique. He calls it a “premortem.” “Our exercise,” Dr. Klein explains, “is to ask planners to imagine that it is months into the future and that their plan has been carried out. And it has failed. That is all they know; they have to explain why they think it failed.”

In Dr. Klein’s experience, the premortem has proved to be a much more effective way to tease out the potential flaws in a decision. A whole range of bad cognitive habits — from groupthink to confirmation bias — tends to blind us to the potential pitfalls of a decision once we have committed to it. It isn’t enough to simply ask yourself, “Are there any flaws here in this plan that I’m missing?” By forcing yourself to imagine scenarios where the decision turned out to be a disastrous one, you can think your way around those blind spots and that false sense of confidence.

The ultimate limitation of the pros and cons list is that we are merely transcribing our existing understanding of the decision at hand and not seeing it with fresh eyes. “One thing a person cannot do, no matter how rigorous his analysis or heroic his imagination,” the economist and Nobel laureate Thomas Schelling once observed, “is to draw up a list of things that would never occur to him.”

And yet hard choices require us to make those kinds of imaginative leaps: to discover new paths and outcomes that had not been visible to us when we first started wrestling with the decision. It is the nature of complex decisions that they are all unique constellations of variables. These new tools simply help us see each constellation more clearly, from fresh angles.
frixion-fric.psy  decisioncraft.decisions.psy 
2 days ago
Training The Brain Of An Entrepreneur
She gave her subjects two psychological assessments. The first measured what is called “cold decision making,” a kind of logical choosing where data is king and feelings play no part. The second measured “hot decision-making,” or decision-making in the face of risk, where emotions always play a significant factor.
risk.psy  decisioncraft.decisions.psy  frixion-fric.psy 
3 days ago
Code of Practice for consumer IoT security - GOV.UK
gov.uk simplicity

a significant number of devices on the market today have been found to lack basic security measures
5 days ago
Jonathan Haidt on Twitter: "if you're wondering why American democracy seems to have decayed so quickly, the graph below gives a big part of the story. When groups hate each other, they more easily believe that the ends justify the means. (From new Hether
Jonathan Haidt on Twitter: "if you're wondering why American democracy seems to have decayed so quickly, the graph below gives a big part of the story. When groups hate each other, they more easily believe that the ends justify the means. (From new Hetherington & Weiler book: https://t.co/GNK59hx6l5 )… https://t.co/HWJNx1flKh"
hate.psy  frixion-fric.psy 
13 days ago
DealBook on Twitter: "The decline of Mark & Spencer's fortunes has been so precipitous that this summer the company was almost dropped from the FTSE 100. “M&S is currently teetering on the edge of relegation,” said one industry analyst. https://t.co/g
The decline of Mark & Spencer's fortunes has been so precipitous that this summer the company was almost dropped from the FTSE 100. “M&S is currently teetering on the edge of relegation,” said one industry analyst.
15 days ago
The Myth of The Infrastructure Phase | Union Square Ventures
Apps and infrastructure evolve in responsive cycles, not distinct, separate phases -- First, apps inspire infrastructure. Then that infrastructure enables new apps.
18 days ago
Psychology on Twitter: "Music is so influential on the brain that the type you listen to actually has the ability to change the way you think and look at the world"
Music is so influential on the brain that the type you listen to actually has the ability to change the way you think and look at the world
18 days ago
Alibaba's Daniel Zhang tells employees not to ‘live for KPIs’ in first internal speech since being named Jack Ma’s successor | South China Morning Post
Ma has stated that he hopes Alibaba will last “at least 102 years” with the mission to “make it easy to do business anywhere”

...the company's dream is to create value for the customers they serve.

He exhorted employees to do their best to meet their own expectations, instead of caring what others think, and not give up when they meet resistance or obstacles – especially when it came to new business models and innovative projects that have not been tried before.

“Many of our businesses have been the same for over 10 years, and if we keep doing things the same way today, or five years later, then Alibaba won't have a future,” Zhang said, adding that his greatest fear was that Alibaba would become like a “robot on loop”.

“No battle has ever been won by merely copying others.”
alibaba.brd  frixion-fric.psy 
18 days ago
Archillect on Twitter: "… "
everything isamazing and nobody is happy
26 days ago
Amazon Said to Plan Up to 3,000 Cashierless Stores by 2021 - Bloomberg
Bezos sees eliminating meal-time logjams in busy cities as the best way for Amazon to reinvent the brick-and-mortar shopping experience, where most spending still occurs.

AmazonGo will be more of a threat to fast-casual restaurants if it is targeting cities, said Jeff Lenard, vice president of NACS. Shoppers rate location and a lack of lines as the most important factors when shopping for convenience.

AmazonGo already has no lines," Lenard said. "The key to success will be convenient locations. If it’s a quarter mile from where people are walking and biking, the novelty of the technology won’t matter. It’s too far away."
4 weeks ago
The 3 kinds of non-fiction books
Branch books are the most common type of book you'll find in the non-fiction section. These are books that consist of a single idea. The rest of the book is then padded out with examples, extrapolations, and implications of that single idea.
frixion-fric.psy  #bk 
4 weeks ago
The Death of Advertising – Member Feature Stories – Medium
Dollar Shave Club’s success indicates that shotgun advertising will fade over the decades to come. Companies that serve the masses will be replaced by companies that serve niches, because the latter will take advantage of the decreased distribution costs and grass-roots marketing opportunities that the internet provides.

As this happens, and information about both buyers and suppliers becomes more and more perfect, the advantages enjoyed by producers of homogeneous products like the Big Mac and Coke will dissipate, and their products will lose market share to more targeted, higher-quality products that take advantage of unique, niche markets that were never able to monetized in the old world of advertising. The internet, the data it generates, and the companies that own and utilize that data best, will be the driving forces behind the monetization of niches.

The perfection of data will, eventually, give rise to a world in which every consumer can be paired up with goods that meet his or her biological, rather than consumptive, tendencies. This world will also be devoid of branding, because in a world that relies on perfect information, there will be no need for branded trust. The cheaper of two identical goods will always and everywhere be purchased, as opposed to what happens now, when a consumer pays more for Motrin, the brand, than ibuprofen, the drug, even though they’re the same thing. Once perfect information becomes a reality, there won’t be just a few over-the-counter meds to alleviate pain; rather there will be hundreds, or even thousands depending on the specific needs of the niche markets. The purpose of advertising in this world will be to pair niche consumers, whose needs were never profitable enough to be met, with niche products, whose production was never profitable enough to be realized.

Given all of this, advertising as we’ve always known it — large-scale campaigns predicated on instilling subconscious intuition in consumers — will die. What will rise from its ashes be unlike anything we’ve seen before. It will not subject us to a menu of mediocrity; rather, the algorithms buried within the walls of companies like Google and Facebook will deterministically present us with our best options for everything, because they will know us best. At first, consumers may rebel, like they did with GPS in cars, or online shopping. But as they realize that they are better served by allowing algorithms to take care of the decisions they once relied on their own autonomy to make, they will make the shift. It will not happen overnight, but it will happen.

This new world will be marked by a monumental shift away from branding, which is already happening; a shift away from search, which is about to happen; but most importantly, and perhaps most unsettling, a shift away from trust in the user as the final indicator of their own desire.
4 weeks ago
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