jtyost2 + election   1594

Trump Demands Homeland Security Secretary Who Will Break the Law
Conservative elites have tried to convince themselves that what Republican voters really mean when they cheer for the wall and repeat lurid stories of Latino men committing horrific crimes is that they just want the law to be followed. Trump, as he has done so many times, has turned the rationalizations made on his own behalf into a joke.
discrimination  politics  government  conservatives  republicans  election  DonaldTrump  legal  deptofhomelandsecurity  immigration  usa  ethics  humanrights  civilrights  from instapaper
april 2019 by jtyost2
Howard Schultz’s campaign is based on 3 ideas, and they’re all wrong
This is more or less what Schultz is attempting. The country could use some public-spirited billionaires who believe what Schultz, at least, claims to believe, and are willing to put the time and money into true political reform. What it doesn’t need is more billionaires who just want to jump into politics and break things.
politics  government  democracy  partisanship  election 
april 2019 by jtyost2
Bernie Sanders declines to say when he will release tax returns
Democratic presidential candidate Sen. Bernie Sanders sidestepped questions Thursday about when he will release his tax returns, with the Vermont independent hinting he could fulfill his six-week old pledge to make public 10 years of tax returns on April 15 -- Tax Day.

Yet, as quickly as Sanders suggested that, he appeared to backtrack and wouldn't commit that he would release them then.
"Do you know what April 15th is? It's Tax Day," Sanders told CNN on Capitol Hill when asked if there was an issue to releasing his taxes. "So, I think we want to make sure we have all of them together and as I said, they will be released soon."
When asked if that meant he would not necessarily release his tax returns on April 15, Sanders responded, "That's it. Thank you very much."
Politics  BernieSanders  transparency  democrats  election  from instapaper
april 2019 by jtyost2
Joe Biden allegations no bar to 2020 bid, says Pelosi
Allegations former Vice-President Joe Biden touched women inappropriately should not disqualify him from running for president, top Democrat Nancy Pelosi has said.

But he needs to understand that "people's space is important", the House of Representatives Speaker added.

A second woman has levelled accusations as Mr Biden ponders a run for the White House in 2020.

Mr Biden has said he does not believe he has ever acted inappropriately.
NancyPelosi  JoeBiden  politics  election  democrats 
april 2019 by jtyost2
Trump says no healthcare vote until after 2020 election
US President Donald Trump has said he wants to wait until after the 2020 election to draft a new healthcare plan to replace the Affordable Care Act.

The move reverses Mr Trump's call last week to quickly scrap ex-President Obama's signature law, taking some Republicans in Congress by surprise.

It comes as the justice department backed a lawsuit aiming to strike down the healthcare law as unconstitutional.

At least 20 million people could lose health coverage if the law is scrapped.

It is unclear with what Republicans would replace the Affordable Care Act, also known as Obamacare, if the courts rule to abolish the law before the 2020 presidential election.

In a series of tweets on Monday evening, Mr Trump wrote that a "vote will be taken right after the Election when Republicans hold the Senate & win back the House".
DonaldTrump  politics  election  healthcare  government  AffordableCareAct 
april 2019 by jtyost2
Joe Biden Scrambles to Stem Crisis After Lucy Flores’s Allegation
Former Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr. scrambled on Sunday to contain a quickly growing crisis for his likely presidential bid, putting forward several former female aides and allies to praise his treatment of women after Lucy Flores, a former Nevada legislator, accused Mr. Biden of kissing and touching her.

Mr. Biden also issued a sweeping statement acknowledging that he had shown “expressions of affection” to people during his years on the campaign trail, but said, “not once — never — did I believe I acted inappropriately.” It was the second damage-control statement to come from his team since Ms. Flores made her allegation on Friday, and it was released minutes before she appeared on CNN and argued that Mr. Biden’s behavior with her at a 2014 campaign event was “disqualifying” for a presidential candidate.

Yet even as Mr. Biden defended himself, and his former staff members praised his conduct as a boss, some of the former vice president’s would-be rivals in the 2020 Democratic field and some allies said that Ms. Flores’s claim should be taken seriously.

“I have no reason not to believe Lucy,” Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont said on CBS’s “Face the Nation” on Sunday. Asked if the allegation should disqualify Mr. Biden from running for president, Mr. Sanders said: “I think that’s a decision for the vice president to make. I’m not sure that one incident alone disqualifies anybody.”

Mr. Biden’s advisers indicated on Sunday that the accusation would not dissuade him from entering the 2020 campaign, which they suggest he still intends to do at the end of April or just after. But Ms. Flores’s claim, and Mr. Biden’s attempt to rebut her story without dismissing it — or her — offered a vivid illustration of the #MeToo-era challenges that await a 76-year-old political veteran known for his close physical contact with women, including hugging, kissing and touching them.
JoeBiden  sexism  discrimination  feminism  gender  politics  democrats  election  from instapaper
april 2019 by jtyost2
Twitter Network Uses Fake Accounts to Promote Netanyahu, Israel Watchdog Finds
An Israeli watchdog group has found a network of hundreds of social media accounts, many of them fake, used to smear opponents of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in next week’s election and to amplify the messages of his Likud party, according to a report to be released Monday.

The messages posted on the network’s Twitter and Facebook accounts are frequently reposted by prominent Likud campaign officials and by the prime minister’s son, Yair Netanyahu, the report says.

The watchdog group, the Big Bots Project, an independent organization that aims to expose the malicious use of social media, found no direct links between the network and Mr. Netanyahu, his party or his son, but said it appeared to operate in coordination with the party and Mr. Netanyahu’s re-election campaign.

“The network operates through manipulations, slander, lies and spreading rumors,” the report said. “On its busiest days, the network sends out thousands of tweets a day.”

The network’s activity has intensified almost fivefold since the election was called in December, the report said, and “is mobilized at climactic moments for Netanyahu, such as the announcement of the indictment against him.”

The report says the network may violate Israeli laws pertaining to elections, campaign finance, privacy and taxation.

A spokesman for the Likud party said that it did not run a network of fake accounts. “All of the Likud’s digital activity is entirely authentic and is based on the great support of the citizens of Israel for Prime Minister Netanyahu and the great achievements of the Likud,” the spokesman, Jonathan Urich, said on Sunday.

Mr. Netanyahu, who is facing an indictment on corruption charges, is in a tight race for what he hopes will be his fourth consecutive term. He is facing a strong challenge from Benny Gantz, a retired army chief, in the April 9 election.
israel  election  legal  crime  ethics  twitter  socialmedia  socialnetworking  facebook  from instapaper
april 2019 by jtyost2
Ukraine election: Comedian leads presidential contest - exit poll
A comedian with no political experience has won the most votes in the first round of Ukraine's presidential elections, according to exit polls.

They say Volodymyr Zelenskiy - who played the president on TV - received 30.4% of the vote, with current leader Petro Poroshenko second on 17.8%.

The two - who have expressed largely pro-EU opinions - are set to take part in a run-off election next month.

Ex-PM Yulia Tymoshenko appears to have been eliminated on a projected 14.2%.
ukraine  election  democracy 
april 2019 by jtyost2
Trump’s 2020 Campaign: A Traditional Operation With a Wild-Card Candidate
But when it comes to telling a compelling story to the public, Mr. Trump will be running his own show, and campaign aides acknowledge that they are only taking cues from the president.

There is also another factor at play, which is how much of his time Mr. Trump is willing to give them.

After two years in office, Mr. Trump, 72, is tired, aides said. The unstoppable campaigner, so far, will commit to participating in only one campaign event a day, and recently balked at a possible rally out West during a fund-raising swing. The rally may still happen, people familiar with the plans said, but only because campaign officials insisted on it.
DonaldTrump  politics  election 
april 2019 by jtyost2
The ACLU Is Ready To Spend $30 Million On The 2020 Election
The American Civil Liberties Union is pushing 2020 presidential candidates to commit to cutting the federal prison population in half and to allow incarcerated people to vote, part of a $30 million push to shape elections and advance civil libertarian ideas over the next two years.

The ACLU has used its rapidly expanding membership and budget during the Trump era to get increasingly involved in electoral politics, spending heavily on referendums on civil liberties issues and occasionally wading into Senate, gubernatorial and district attorney races.

Its plan for the 2020 election, which it will unveil at a press conference on Sunday afternoon in New Hampshire, involves marshaling its thousands of members in the early primary states of Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina to pressure candidates on a host of potentially politically thorny questions about civil liberties at town halls and candidate forums.
aclu  politics  voting  crime  civilrights  humanrights  government  election 
april 2019 by jtyost2
Wayne Messam: Florida mayor declares presidential bid
A Florida mayor is the latest Democrat to launch a campaign for next year's US presidential nomination.

Wayne Messam, the 44-year-old son of Jamaican immigrants, focused on the idea of the American dream in his campaign video released on Thursday.

He became the first black mayor of the southern Florida town of Miramar in 2015 and is the second sitting mayor to declare a White House bid this year.

He joins a crowded field of over a dozen Democratic contenders.

"I'm passionate about the American dream because it's not a fictitious thing for me," Mr Messam says in his launch video.

"The promise of America belongs to all of us, that's why I'm going to be running for president - to be your champion."
democrats  politics  election  WayneMessam  florida  from instapaper
march 2019 by jtyost2
Democratic hopeful O’Rourke says he won’t look to fund Yucca Mountain facility
Democratic presidential candidate Beto O’Rourke said during a campaign swing through Las Vegas this weekend that if elected he would not look to fund or reopen the shuttered nuclear waste repository at Yucca Mountain, a rebuke of efforts by the Trump Administration to kickstart the mothballed facility over the last two years.

O’Rourke, a former Texas congressman, made the comment during an interview sandwiched between two campaign events late Sunday morning. In between bites of a bagel and lox, O’Rourke told The Nevada Independent he was “really disappointed” in a move by the Trump Administration to transfer plutonium to the state late last year without first notifying representatives.

“I think beyond the concern in this state, I’m concerned about the other states and communities through which this waste will pass if it is transported here in the future,” he said.

But O’Rourke did not provide a clear answer when pressed on where that waste should go if not to Nevada, saying he was “confident in a country this size” that there would be a place that fits the bill.

“We should find a way to store that waste that provides the absolute minimum impact or risk to people, first and foremost, to the environment and to communities in this country,” O’Rourke said.

The Texas Democrat also said he would look to reverse Trump Administration rollbacks of national monument designations, many of which were used as a tool by the Obama Administration to block the development of land by oil, gas or mining companies — including two national monuments in Nevada, Gold Butte and Basin and Range.
democrats  nevada  election  BetoORourke  politics  usa 
march 2019 by jtyost2
Baristas to Beto: Come On Man, Get Off Our Counters
When Democratic presidential candidate Beto O’Rourke arrived for a campaign stop at Beancounter Coffeehouse in Burlington, Iowa, he hopped right up on the shop’s counter and addressed the masses below. During a visit to Narrow Way Cafe in Detroit, Michigan, O’Rourke grabbed a microphone and scrambled up on counter. At Sing-A-Long Bar and Grill in Mount Vernon, Iowa? You bet he got up on that counter.

Critics have accused O’Rourke of running on a vague political platform. But there’s one platform the Democratic hopeful openly stands on: the sturdy countertops of Midwest cafes. After a week of stump speeches from a perch next to the cash register, Beto’s countertop habit has become a meme. And some of the nation’s baristas are asking him to please get down from there.

Josh Wilson is the owner of Cohesive Coffee in Greenville, South Carolina. He said he could envision himself voting for O’Rourke, but still wouldn’t want him standing on his counter.

“As a cafe owner, the way the picture shows doesn’t make sense,” Wilson said of a picture of O’Rourke squatting on a counter to listen to a woman standing on the ground. “I would understand standing on the counter because the crowd was so big, although organizing it would be better. But he’s kneeled down. It seems like a photo opp that wasn’t necessary. His feet are right by the cups.”

“I’m sure he had a reason,” Wilson continued. “But it seems like just standing would work. Beto seems to be trying harder and harder to find ways to show he’s an ‘Everyman.”
politics  democrats  election  Iowa  BetoORourke  from instapaper
march 2019 by jtyost2
Elizabeth Warren Calls for Ending Electoral College
Senator Elizabeth Warren, the Massachusetts Democrat who has based her presidential bid on trying to outpace rivals with robust policy proposals, added more ideas to her liberal agenda on Monday night: getting rid of the Electoral College, removing Confederate statues, and creating a national commission to study reparations for black Americans.

Ms. Warren’s remarks came during an hourlong CNN town hall at Jackson State University, a historically black college in the capital of the deeply Republican state. While reiterating her familiar positions on regulating corporations and upending Washington lobbying, Ms. Warren also sought to present new ideas to a national audience that is still getting to know her.

“I believe we need a constitutional amendment that protects the right to vote for every American citizen and makes sure that vote gets counted,” Ms. Warren said in response to a question about voter disenfranchisement. “We need to put some federal muscle behind that, and we need to repeal every one of the voter suppression laws that is out there.”

She then noted that most presidential candidates never campaign in Mississippi or her home state of Massachusetts during a general election because those are not battleground states in the Electoral College. Many Democrats have become sharp critics of the Electoral College after Al Gore in 2000 and Hillary Clinton in 2016 won the national popular vote but lost the Electoral College vote, and therefore the presidency.

“Every vote matters, and the way we can make that happen is that we can have national voting, and that means get rid of the Electoral College,” Ms. Warren said, drawing one of her longest ovations of the night.

Ms. Warren also used the forum to present herself as a candidate who understands racial inequities. Speaking to a racially diverse audience, she called for Confederate commemoration statues and monuments to come down and be moved to museums.

Ms. Warren was also asked if Mississippi should adopt a new state flag that no longer has the Confederate battle flag emblem.

“Yes,” she said.

She also said she supported a commission to study reparations, though she sidestepped responding directly to a question about whether she supported financial payments from the government to descendants of slaves
ElizabethWarren  politics  democrats  usa  election  ElectoralCollege  voting  civilrights  humanrights  slavery  racism  government  reparations 
march 2019 by jtyost2
US election 2020: Beto O'Rourke breaks fundraising record - BBC News
In his first day of campaigning as a presidential candidate, Texas Democrat Beto O'Rourke raised $6.1m (£4.6m), the largest of any 2020 candidate so far.

The rising star's online fundraising haul managed to beat out Senator Bernie Sanders' record of $5.9m last month in the first 24 hours of his campaign.

Like other Democrats, Mr O'Rourke has refused to take any money from special interest lobby groups or corporations.

The 46-year-old is one of 15 Democrats now in a bid for the White House.

According to his campaign, he received donations from every state and territory, totalling $6,136,763. The campaign did not release how many donors contribute
BetoORourke  politics  democrats  election 
march 2019 by jtyost2
US election race: Gillibrand launches presidential bid
Kirsten Gillibrand has become the latest US Democrat to join a crowded race to be the party's candidate for the 2020 presidential election.

The 52-year-old senator for New York announced her bid in an online video released on Sunday.

Fifteen other Democrats having already declared they will seek the nomination.

They include Senators Elizabeth Warren, Kamala Harris and Bernie Sanders - who ran against Hillary Clinton in 2016 - and ex-Texas Congressman Beto O'Rourke.

In the video launching her bid, Ms Gillibrand takes aim at President Donald Trump, saying: "Brave doesn't pit people against each other. Brave doesn't put money over lives. Brave doesn't spread hate. Cloud truth. Build a wall. That's what fear does."
KirstenGillibrand  politics  democrats  usa  election 
march 2019 by jtyost2
US election 2020: Beto O'Rourke launches presidential bid - BBC News
Former Texas congressman Robert "Beto" O'Rourke has formally announced he is running for president in the 2020 election after months of speculation.

In his campaign video, the Democratic rising star said the US was facing a "defining moment of truth".

Mr O'Rourke, 46, is the 15th Democrat to declare his bid for the White House.

In last year's mid-term election, he ran a tight race against Republican Ted Cruz for his Senate seat, though it proved ultimately unsuccessful.

But he did better than any Democrat in Texas for decades, running a campaign that energised the party nationwide and drew comparisons with former President Barack Obama.

He joins a crowded field of contenders vying for the Democratic nomination, including senators Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, Kamala Harris and Amy Klobuchar, to name but a few.
BetoORourke  politics  usa  election  democrats 
march 2019 by jtyost2
Beto is playing to liberal fears about running a woman against Trump
The debate around how to defeat Trump has been largely about whether it’s better to run a man or a woman. But there’s more to it than gender. The question is about what Democrats expect from leaders.

O’Rourke can’t single-handedly change how Americans think about women and ambition. But he also doesn’t have to amplify the status quo in how he runs his campaign. He doesn’t have to talk about ambition as his right. Instead of making a slightly self-deprecating joke about leaving the parenting to his wife (while still being seen as a likable and decent person), he could try to address the underlying topic in an earnest and real way.

And as he gets into the race, he’ll have to decide how he challenges his female peers. Will he perpetuate stereotypes that hold women back? Or will he face them on issues and policy?

Even before several female Democratic candidates got into the race, they were the target of the same attack Clinton endured for years — that she’s only out for herself. And the attacks were coming from inside their own tent. Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand has been accused of pressuring Sen. Al Franken to resign over allegations of sexual misconduct as a personal play. Sen. Kamala Harris was targeted by a Twitter campaign that started as a policy critique but took personal turns into her supposed secret motivations. Sen. Amy Klobuchar has faced criticism for how she supposedly treats her staff. While some of it was truly bad boss behavior, the critiques were rooted in the idea that she put herself and her ambition first.

If these old sexist lines continue, Democrats could leave a mark on their field of female stars heading into 2020. What does O’Rourke plan to do?
BetoORourke  politics  feminism  gender  democrats  republicans  DonaldTrump  election  from instapaper
march 2019 by jtyost2
Beto O’Rourke Enters the 2020 Presidential Campaign
BREAKING The former Texas congressman, who rose to national stardom during his unsuccessful 2018 Senate run, is joining a crowded Democratic field. Credit Tamir…
politics  election  democrats  BetoORouke  from instapaper
march 2019 by jtyost2
Kirsten Gillibrand: #MeToo senator denies mishandling complaint - BBC News
A Democratic presidential hopeful who has made women's empowerment key to her 2020 campaign is facing claims she ignored misconduct in her own office.

A former female aide to Senator Kirsten Gillibrand told Politico she was sexually harassed by an older male staff member last summer.

After she complained, she said the senior aide was disciplined but not fired, and top staff blamed her.

The accuser submitted a scathing letter of resignation.

According to Politico, the young woman wrote in her letter to the New York senator: "Your office chose to go against your public belief that women shouldn't accept sexual harassment in any form and portrayed my experience as a misinterpretation instead of what it actually was: harassment and ultimately, intimidation."
democrats  metoo  politics  gender  harassment  legal  ethics  election  KirstenGillibrand 
march 2019 by jtyost2
House Passes Democrats’ Centerpiece Anti-Corruption and Voting Rights Bill
The House passed the Democrats’ showcase anti-corruption and voting rights legislation on Friday, an expansive measure that aims to dismantle barriers to the ballot box, end big money in politics and impose stricter ethics rules on federal officials.

The sweeping legislation, passed 234-193, makes good on the campaign pledge to clean up Washington that helped catapult Democrats into the majority. It also serves as a campaign platform for Democrats ahead of 2020. It has virtually no chance of passing the Senate.

“It’s a power grab for the American people,” said Representative Zoe Lofgren of California, who leads the House administration committee that shepherded the legislation.

The ambitious compendium, at nearly 700 pages, includes proposals designating Election Day as a federal holiday, automatically registering citizens to vote, and restoring voting rights to people who have served felony sentences. It also creates a six-to-one matching system for donations of up to $200 to congressional and presidential candidates who reject high-dollar contributions, funded by an additional fine on corporations found to have broken the law.

Republicans arguably have spent more time trying to define the bill — called the For the People Act or H.R. 1, to underscore its primacy — and tear it down than Democrats have spent trying to promote it. Senator Mitch McConnell of Kentucky, the majority leader, has branded it the “Democrat Politician Protection Act” in weekly speeches, and pledged not to take up the legislation. The House Republican leader, Representative Kevin McCarthy of California, also criticized the legislation.

“This bill is a massive federal government takeover that would undermine the integrity of our elections,” Mr. McCarthy said in a speech on Friday, in an attack on “this new, Democrat, socialist majority.”

Some of the most debated provisions are intended to reveal who funds online political ads and finances so-called dark-money groups. The Disclose Act, part of the bill, would require super PACs and nonprofit organizations that spend money in elections to disclose the names of donors who contribute more than $10,000. Democrats say such disclosure is broadly popular with voters across the political spectrum.
democrats  democracy  congress  ethics  politics  voting  election  transparency 
march 2019 by jtyost2
North Koreans vote in 'no-choice' parliamentary elections
North Koreans are voting to elect the country's rubber-stamp parliament, the second such election since Kim Jong-un took power.

Voting for the Supreme People's Assembly (SPA) is mandatory and there's no choice of candidates. Any kind of dissent is unheard of.

Turnout is always close to 100% and approval for the governing alliance is unanimous.

North Korea is an isolated state, ruled by the Kim family dynasty.

Citizens are required to show complete devotion to the family and its current leader.
northkorea  election  voting  communism  from instapaper
march 2019 by jtyost2
Hillary Clinton Says She Is Not Running for President in 2020
Hillary Clinton, the former secretary of state and first lady who lost the White House to Donald J. Trump in 2016, said officially on Monday what has been unofficially clear for months: She is not running for president again in 2020.

“I’m not running,” Mrs. Clinton told a New York City television station, News 12. “But I’m going to keep on working and speaking and standing up for what I believe.”

Mrs. Clinton, the first woman to win a major-party nomination for president, remains a complicated figure for the Democratic Party as both a trailblazing female leader and also the candidate who was defeated by Mr. Trump.

Ahead of the 2020 election, she has been holding private meetings with many of the current and potential presidential candidates, including Senator Kamala Harris and former Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr., as they sought counsel from her even before she formally ruled out another run.
hillaryclinton  usa  politics  election  democrats  from instapaper
march 2019 by jtyost2
Democrats Reject Fox News as 2020 Debate Host, Citing Ties to Trump
The Democratic National Committee said on Wednesday that it had barred Fox News from hosting or televising a candidate debate for the party’s 2020 primary election, an unusually pointed rebuke of a cable news channel whose star pundits are closely aligned with President Trump.

The committee’s chairman, Tom Perez, said in a statement that Fox News “is not in a position to host a fair and neutral debate for our candidates.” Mr. Perez cited an article published this week by The New Yorker that reported on ties between the president and the network, which he deemed an “inappropriate relationship.”

Televised debates are a relatively new innovation in the presidential primary process, but they have become sought-after events for networks eager to score high ratings and serve as gatekeepers in the early months of the nominating cycle, when viewers are forming their initial impressions of the candidates.
foxnews  journalism  ethics  democrats  republicans  politics  election  from instapaper
march 2019 by jtyost2
Juan Guaidó Returns to Venezuela, Facing Threat of Arrest
Juan Guaidó, the Venezuelan opposition leader who defied a travel ban and left the country more than a week ago, returned Monday in what could turn into a new showdown with President Nicolás Maduro.

“Back in our beloved homeland!,” Mr. Guaidó said in a Twitter posting from the airport near Caracas, where he landed on a commercial flight from Panama. “We just got through passport control and will head where our people are!”

It was not immediately clear whether Mr. Guaidó would be detained by government security forces. But Mr. Maduro’s government has said Mr. Guaidó violated restrictions on his travel and could face arrest.
JuanGuaidó  Venezuela  democracy  protest  election  NicolásMaduro 
march 2019 by jtyost2
Ex-Colorado governor John Hickenlooper runs for president
Former Colorado governor John Hickenlooper has announced his 2020 presidential bid. The Democrat made the statement in a tweet, saying the country was "in…
JohnHickenlooper  colorado  democrats  politics  election  from instapaper
march 2019 by jtyost2
Bush brother blamed for unfair election
Thousands of black electors in Florida were disenfranchised in last November’s election by an electoral system tainted by “injustice, ineptitude and inefficiency” a leaked report by the US civil rights commission says.
It accuses Governor Jeb Bush, the president’s brother, and his secretary of state, Katherine Harris, of “gross dereliction” of duty, saying they “chose to ignore mounting evidence” of the problems.

The eight-strong commission, whose report will be published on Friday, found that black voters were “10 times more likely than white voters to have their ballots rejected”, and pointed to the use of a flawed list of felons and ex-felons to purge the voting rolls.

Less than 20% of Florida’s total population is black but half the prison inmates are black.

“It is not a question of a recount or even an accurate count, but more pointedly the issue is those whose exclusion from the right to vote amounted to a ‘No Count’,” the report says.

But the commission failed to find “conclusive evidence” that there was a conspiracy among Florida officials to disenfranchise voters.
legal  civilrights  voting  election  florida  humanrights  democracy  government  JebBush 
november 2015 by jtyost2
Trump has figured out Jeb Bush's greatest weakness as a candidate, and it's not his energy level - Vox
I don't know if Donald Trump will win the Republican nomination. But even if he doesn't, it's increasingly clear he's going to destroy Jeb Bush before he loses.

Over the past week, Trump and Bush have been in an argument that basically boils down to the question of was George W. Bush president on 9/11/2001?

Trump insists that Bush was president both prior to and during the 9/11 attacks, and he was therefore at least partly responsible for the security failures that permitted the tragedy. And to Trump's credit, there is considerable evidence that George W. Bush was president on 9/11/2001.

Jeb Bush's position is harder to parse: he argues that his brother was only responsible for what happened after 9/11, suggesting, perhaps, that someone else bore the responsibilities of the presidency on 9/11/2001. Or, to be a bit kinder to his position, he argues that the measure of as president isn't whether something like 9/11 happens, but whether it happens again.
JebBush  politics  DonaldTrump  usa  election  congress  government  republicans 
october 2015 by jtyost2
The Hillary Clinton Panic May Have Just Ended
Clinton came into the debate with a clear plan to position herself as Obama’s successor. Asked how she would not simply offer a third Obama term, Clinton replied that she would be the first woman president. Asked for a policy-based difference, Clinton proposed to extend and deepen Obama’s program rather than abandon or correct it.

It may be obvious in retrospect, but few people predicted beforehand just how thoroughly the debate atmosphere would play to Clinton’s advantage. The media has viewed her campaign message almost entirely through the filter of the email scandal. Clinton was able to use the poorly-disguised partisan excesses of her Republican tormentors in Congress to escape responsibility for a serious error in judgment on her part, framing the issue (not altogether inaccurately) as a partisan fight, so that Democrats would rally to her side. She further played off the campaign media, casting its email obsession as an unworthy distraction from the policy discussion that she, her fellow candidates, and nearly all the Democratic voters want to hear. Clinton, suddenly finding a moral ground on which to stand (which the news media had denied her for months), burst out in uncontrollable glee.

She is not great at politics, as even many of her supporters concede. (Earlier today, Glenn Thrush and Annie Karni reported, “Nearly every one of 50 advisers, donors, Democratic operatives and friends we interviewed for this story thought Clinton was a mediocre candidate who would make a good president, if given the chance.”) But she is not as awful at it as she has appeared for most of 2015. After the debate, she again resembles what she appeared to be at the campaign’s outset: the all-but-certain Democratic nominee.
hillaryclinton  usa  legal  democrats  election  BernieSanders  JimWebb 
october 2015 by jtyost2
John Boehner just sacrificed his career for the good of the Republican party
That vicious cycle did two things: (1) It revealed to anyone paying attention — the White House, the Senate — that Boehner had no real control over his members, and (2) it emboldened conservatives to begin making bigger and grander demands to extract their support.

By the start of this year, it had become quite clear that Boehner’s ability to hold onto the speakership was in question. While he won the job in a floor vote in January, 25 of his GOP colleagues voted for someone else — the biggest rebellion against a sitting speaker in more than 100 years. That more than two dozen Republicans would vote against Boehner in an election in which there was no true alternative candidate was telling: They just weren’t afraid of him anymore.

Meanwhile, outside Congress, Donald Trump was on the rise — with a message that boils down to this: Everyone in politics is lying to you and is bad at their jobs. Republican leaders are the worst of all because they were elected to represent your views and have caved to President Obama and other Washington Democrats.

The prominence in the 2016 race of Trump, Ben Carson and Carly Fiorina — none of whom had ever held office before — speaks to the present mood coursing through the GOP electorate. Scott Walker’s candidacy fell victim to that anti-everything (or at least everything political) sentiment and others, including Jeb Bush, are struggling to deal with the deep distrust and, in many cases, dislike that the party’s grass roots have for the people elected to lead them.

That was the landscape facing Boehner with another possible (and probably likely) government shutdown looming amid threats from the party’s conservatives that they would shut down the government unless all federal funding for Planned Parenthood was totally stripped. And if it wasn’t Planned Parenthood funding, it might have been something else.

Faced with watching the same awful movie again, Boehner decided to offer himself as a sacrifice to conservatives who wanted him out: I will leave if you vote to keep the government open.
politics  republicans  HouseOfRepresentatives  congress  johnboehner  usa  election 
september 2015 by jtyost2
Trump and Obama: A Night to Remember - The New Yorker
Some day someone may well write a kind of micro-history of that night, as historians now are wont to do, as a pivot in American life, both a triumph of Obama’s own particular and enveloping form of cool and as harbinger of—well, of what exactly? A lot depends on what happens next with the Donald and his followers. Certainly, the notion that Trump’s rise, however long it lasts, is a product of a special skill, or circumstance, or a new national “mood,” is absurd. Trumpism is a permanent part of American life—in one form or another, with one voice or another blaring it out. At any moment in our modern history, some form of populist nationalism has always held some significant share—whether five or ten per cent – of the population. Among embittered white men, Trump’s “base,” it has often held a share much larger than that. Trump is not offering anything that was not offered before him, often in identical language and with a similarly incoherent political program, by Pat Buchanan or Ross Perot, by George Wallace or Barry Goldwater, or way back when by Father Coughlin or Huey Long. Populist nationalism is not an eruptive response to a new condition of 2015—it is a perennial ideological position, deeply rooted in the nature of modernity: a social class sees its perceived displacement as the result of a double conspiracy of outsiders and élitists. The outsiders are swamping us, and the insiders are mocking us—this ideology alters its local color as circumstances change, but the essential core is always there. They look down on us and they have no right to look down on us. Indeed, the politics of Trump, far from being in any way new, are exactly the politics of Huck Finn’s drunken father in “Huckleberry Finn”: “Call this a govment! Just look at it and see what it’s like . . . . A man can’t get his rights in a govment like this.” Widespread dissatisfaction with all professional politicians, a certainty of having been “sold out,” a feeling of complete alienation from both political parties—“Not a dime’s worth of difference between them” was George Wallace’s formulation, a half century ago—these are permanent intuitions of the American aggrieved. The feelings may be somewhat aggravated by bad times, or alleviated by good ones, but at the height of the prosperous fifties a significant proportion of Americans were persuaded that the entire government was in the hands of saboteurs and traitors at the pay of a foreign power, while in the still more prosperous nineties a similar faction was persuaded that the liberal President was actually a coke dealer who had murdered a friend.

Nor is it at all surprising to find a billionaire businessman representing this ideology, because it is not really members of the economic élite who are its villains—it is the educated élite, and the uneducated outsiders, who are. It is, on the historical record, much more a response to the ceaseless anxieties of modern life than to any financial angst of the moment. Probably the best student of this modern ideology is the conservative historian John Lukacs, whose 2005 book “Democracy And Populism: Fear and Hatred” makes clear how different the nationalist formula is from patriotism properly so called: it rests not on a sense of pride in place or background but in an intense sense of victimization. The cry of the genuine patriot is, Leave us alone to be the people we have always been. The populist nationalist cries, We have been cheated of our birthright, and the Leader will give it back.

The ideology is always available; it just changes its agents from time to time.

And this is where memories of the President’s performance come into play and take on a potency that one might not have understood at the time. For the politics of populist nationalism are almost entirely the politics of felt humiliation—the politics of shame. And one can’t help but suspect that, on that night, Trump’s own sense of public humiliation became so overwhelming that he decided, perhaps at first unconsciously, that he would, somehow, get his own back—perhaps even pursue the Presidency after all, no matter how nihilistically or absurdly, and redeem himself. Though he gave up the hunt for office in that campaign, it does not seem too far-fetched to imagine that the rage—Lukacs’s fear and hatred—implanted in him that night has fuelled him ever since. It was already easy to sense at the time that something very strange had happened – that the usual American ritual of the “roast” and the roasted had been weirdly and uniquely disrupted. But the consequences were hard to imagine. The micro-history of that night yet to be written might be devoted largely to the double life of Barack Obama as cool comedian and quiet commander—or it might be devoted to the moment when new life was fed into an old ideology, when Trump’s ambitions suddenly turned over to the potent politics of shame and vengeance. His even partial triumph in the primary still seems unlikely—but stranger jokes have been played on American philosophers over the centuries.
politics  usa  history  election  DonaldTrump  barackobama 
september 2015 by jtyost2
The Republican Plot to Destroy an International Climate Agreement
The answer is revealed by the more recent turn in Republican strategy toward subverting international negotiations. The GOP is not hiding its intentions here. Republican leaders are openly advertising their gambit. Andrew Restuccia reports, “[A] top policy aide to McConnell (R-Ky.) has had conversations with a select group of representatives from foreign embassies to make it clear that Republicans intend to fight Obama’s climate agenda at every turn.” If Republicans were genuinely concerned about the U.S. imposing costs on itself while letting other countries free ride, they would not be doing this. They would be happy to allow other countries to reduce their own emissions. If, as they say, they could reverse Obama’s commitments after suckering the rest of the world into going first, all the better!

Why would Republicans try to persuade the rest of the world to keep pumping carbon dioxide into the atmosphere? One reason is that, while other countries transitioning to low-emission fuels may not cost American consumers anything, it definitely costs American fossil-fuel companies. People who own large deposits of coal and oil want to sell it abroad. The Republican climate-change strategy has been hatched by a group of Republican politicians and fossil-fuel lobbyists so tightly intermingled there seems to be no distinction between the interests of the two. (“In the early months of 2014, a group of about 30 corporate lawyers, coal lobbyists and Republican political strategists began meeting regularly in the headquarters of the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, often, according to some of the participants, in a conference room overlooking the White House. Their task was to start devising a legal strategy for dismantling the climate change regulations they feared were coming from President Obama.”) Beyond the straightforward self-interest of coal and oil companies, there is the ancient right-wing distrust of international agreements in general. Plus, of course, Republicans continue to follow a policy of across-the-board opposition to the whole Obama administration agenda. Destroying an international climate agreement means denying an Obama legacy; what more do they want?

In any case, the old conservative line, with its explicit or implicit promise that international agreement to reduce emissions might justify domestic emissions cuts, has suddenly become inoperative. The speed at which Republicans have changed from insisting other countries would never reduce their greenhouse-gas emissions to warning other countries not to do so — without a peep of protest from within the party or the conservative movement — says everything you need to know about the party’s stance on climate change.
republicans  politics  government  congress  election  usa  climatechange  energy  china  diplomacy 
september 2015 by jtyost2
Donald Trump is now the first or second choice for half of GOP voters
The amazing thing about new GOP presidential primary polling is that the big picture isn’t amazing. Oh, Donald Trump has a big lead? Ho-hum, what else is new? He was up 24-13 in CNN/ORC’s August poll; he’s up 32-19 in one published Thursday.

But the owner of second place has changed — and pretty dramatically. In August, it was still Jeb Bush, who’d been sliding downward but was still in position for the silver. Now, Bush is relegated to third, as Ben Carson comes on strong.
politics  usa  republicans  election  government  JebBush  BenCarson  DonaldTrump  2016 
september 2015 by jtyost2
The Republican Revolt
If we’ve reached the point where even the establishment hates the establishment, the mood is dangerous indeed.
politics  DonaldTrump  republicans  election  conservatives  teaparty 
september 2015 by jtyost2
Stop Comparing Donald Trump And Bernie Sanders | FiveThirtyEight
What Sanders and Trump have in common is they’re both unlikely to be nominated. (If I were laying odds, I’d put either one at something like 15-1 or 20-1 against.) But it’s for different reasons. Sanders is losing now, but if he eventually overtakes Clinton — and if Biden fails to come to the establishment’s rescue — his position might become more viable. Trump is nominally winning, but the GOP race is much more volatile. And if he doesn’t lose steam on his own accord, the Republican establishment will use every tool at its disposal to stop him.
DonaldTrump  usa  BernieSanders  election  government  politics  2016  hillaryclinton  JebBush  from twitter_favs
september 2015 by jtyost2
Why racists are at war with National Review over Donald Trump
Absolutely. Consider these two facts:

According to exit polls from 1980, Ronald Reagan won 56 percent of the white vote en route to winning 51 percent of the overall vote.
According to exit polls form 2012, Mitt Romney won 59 percent of the white vote en route to winning 47 percent of the overall vote.
In other words, the demographic math of the Reagan coalition doesn’t work anymore. To win, conservative politicians either need to broaden their appeal to African-American or Latino voters or else significantly improve their performance among white voters from an already high level.

The strategy favored by much of the party elite — including George and Jeb Bush, John McCain, the Wall Street Journal editorial page, most of the business community, and the RNC in its official 2012 postmortem — is to try to neutralize the immigration issue in the Latino community and then win votes from more affluent or more religiously devout Hispanics. The alt-right/identitarian/Trump strategy is to do the opposite, and make increasingly explicit appeals to ethnic nationalism to try to make whites more uniformly loyal to the GOP.

But as reflected in the conduct of the House GOP — which has simply refused to bring any sort of immigration bill to the floor — the bulk of party actors would prefer a third option: do neither. Given the heavy pro-Republican tilt of the House map and the whiter skew of the midterm electorate, this is good enough for Republican congressional candidates and most statewide offices. But it doesn’t work nearly as well in presidential politics and doesn’t actually address the ongoing demographic shifts that will eventually filter down through the system.
politics  usa  election  statistics  republicans  DonaldTrump  immigration  racism  NationalReview 
september 2015 by jtyost2
We need some moderate Republicans to start running for Congress. Too bad they’re not likely to do so.
Okay, so you’re probably not going to run for Congress in 2016. Nor am I.

But somebody out there is going to put up with all the endless fundraising calls and the invasions of privacy and the negative ads attacking them and the endless recitation of the same platitudinous speeches over and over again. And, especially on the right, that somebody is probably going to be an ideologue. Because who else wants to run these days? And who else do party leaders want to recruit?

The obvious suggestion is that we need to get some different people running for national office — again, especially on the right.

More broadly, we might want to think a little more about the pipeline of who’s getting involved in politics at all. And yeah, we probably also ought to do something about this problem of only a tiny share of the millennial generation viewing politics as a worthwhile career. But there’s plenty of time ahead to work through these problems.

So watch this space for some ideas in the months ahead. I’m going to be thinking a bit about this problem.
politics  usa  election  government  republicans  democrats 
september 2015 by jtyost2
2016 Republican primary: RNC circulates loyalty pledge
The GOP is taking its most aggressive step yet to force Donald Trump's hand.

The Republican National Committee on Wednesday privately reached out to GOP presidential candidates to ask whether they’d be willing to sign a pledge stating they would not run as an independent candidate in the event they fail to win the Republican nomination in 2016.

The move is an implicit challenge to Trump, who pointedly refused to rule out a third-party run during the first GOP debate. He was the only candidate who declined.

The language of the draft pledge speaks directly to the issue vexing Republicans – the possibility that the billionaire could choose to wage a third party bid if he fails to win the GOP nomination, a prospect that could seriously damage the GOP’s prospects of reclaiming the White House. Tapping into deep anti-establishment animosity among the conservative grassroots, Trump has surged to the lead of the deepest presidential field in recent memory. If Trump were to pull just a fraction of the vote as an independent, write-in or third party candidate, it could be enough to sink the eventual Republican nominee.

“I [name] affirm that if I do not win the 2016 Republican nomination for president of the United States I will endorse the 2016 Republican presidential nominee regardless of who it is,” the pledge reads. “I further pledge that I will not seek to run as an independent or write-in candidate nor will I seek or accept the nomination for president of any other party.”
DonaldTrump  usa  republicans  politics  election 
september 2015 by jtyost2
Pollster’s Legs Wobble After Fawning Donald Trump Focus Group | TIME
The group said Trump has their best interests in mind, while other Republicans are looking out for themselves. “We’ve got to show the Republicans that we’ve had it with them, that we will not be there every single time. They treat us like crap and they lie to us and promise us things and then they expect us to vote again,” said a Republican woman. “That’s why we want Trump.”

The crowd in the room was angriest about national security. Nearly all of them, it appeared, had an unshakeable feeling that U.S. border was porous as a sieve and that the very things that once defined the nation: army, border and national pride—were fading. They complained of America’s reduced standing in the world, and Obama’s apparent ineptitude in challenging Russia, Syria and ISIS.

When the group listened to a clip of Trump claiming that as president “the military is going to be so strong” that “nobody is going to mess around with the United States,” nearly everyone registered approval on their dial meters of 100—a seldom occurrence among focus groups.

“We love our country and we love what our country stands for,” said a woman who added she comes from a military family. “I look at where we are now as a country where entitlements are just totally out of control. Our borders have completely dissolved. We’re not what we used to be. I want to people to represent my interest.”

Trump’s unapologetic focus on strengthening the border—he wants to build a wall and deport all 11 million immigrants before letting many back into the country—excites many conservatives, as well as some who don’t traditionally vote Republican. Though he has announced scant specific plans, Trump has said he will expand the military, commit to veterans, and take a tough line on dealing with China and Iran.

“He’s not afraid,” said a woman who voted twice for Obama. “He keeps prodding on even if people give him negative press. He doesn’t change and apologize.”

Much of Trump’s support in the room seemed to stem from a weakness in the Republican party. The 2014 midterms did not usher in the conservative renaissance Republicans expected. Obamacare has still not been repealed, Congress is looking less likely to override a veto on the Iran deal, and there are still 11 million illegal immigrants in the United States.

The group of 29 went around the room, each supplying a single adjective for the legislative body that let them down after the 2014 elections. Congress “does nothing.” It’s “too old.” “Useless.” “Lame.” “Inept.” “Wrong party.” “Cocktail party.” “Gridlock.” “Costly.” “Sold out.” “Sucks.” “Douchebags.”

Then, the group did the same for Trump. This time: “Tough.” “Businessman.” “Great.” “Successful.” “Not afraid.” “Leader.” “Has guts.” “Charismatic.” “A true American.” “Kicks ass and takes names.”

Congress’ failures were Trump’s gains. The worse Congress and everyone else falls, the more the businessman has to gain. These supporters were evidence that Trump is winning by a new political paradigm, where disappointment and enchantment go hand in hand.
DonaldTrump  politics  usa  election  republicans 
september 2015 by jtyost2
There’s Evidence That Trump’s Polling Support Is Overstated
If Mr. Trump had a big advantage among unlikely voters, a poll using a listed sample — like the Civis data — would be the way to find out. The Civis poll was conducted Aug. 10 to 19 and had a sample of 757 respondents. That sample was as much as three times larger than that of some public polls.

The results showed Mr. Trump with 16 percent of the vote, below any of his poll results in a month. But much of the difference was because 22 percent of voters in the Civis poll were undecided — much more than in many recent public surveys.

The proportion of respondents who “don’t know” often varies from pollster to pollster, a phenomenon called a “house effect.” That’s because the wording of the questions varies or the interviewers have been trained to push undecided voters into making a choice. Sometimes it depends on whether pollsters asked all respondents or only those registered to vote.

The number of undecided voters can affect the rest of the results in a survey. For instance, if undecided voters were allocated proportionally until the number of undecided voters fell to the level of other polls, Mr. Trump would hold 21 percent of the vote. It’s not a good idea to assume that undecided voters break proportionally, but it gives a sense of how much undecided votes could explain the difference between the Civis data and the public polls. (Mr. Trump leads in a national polling average, at 26 percent).

The huge gap between the Civis results for Mr. Trump and other surveys also hints at the possibility that these voters, pushed to make a choice in public polls, might be breaking for Mr. Trump by a disproportionate margin.

At the very least, the large number of undecided voters suggests that many who tell pollsters they support a candidate might have weak preferences, and that Mr. Trump might be the beneficiary.

The large number of undecided voters makes it difficult to directly compare the Civis numbers with other public polls. But the Civis analysis, using voter history data, nonetheless offers good reason to believe that Mr. Trump might fare best among voters who have little history of voting.

Civis tried different methods to measure the effect of voter participation. All the methods showed the same basic story, with Mr. Trump faring better among irregular voters, but not by an unusual amount.

It was also able to look at the impact on other candidates. Jeb Bush, Ben Carson and Chris Christie fared better among irregular voters by a similar or even greater amount. Carly Fiorina, Scott Walker, Mike Huckabee, Ted Cruz and John Kasich fared better among more regular primary voters than irregular voters.

Civis used a simple model to estimate the relationship between candidate preference and vote history — measured by the total number of elections respondents had voted in since 2000. It found that Mr. Trump, Mr. Bush and Mr. Carson all did much worse among voters who had participated in more elections.

Mrs. Fiorina saw her support rise with vote participation, as did Mr. Walker, Mr. Cruz, Mr. Kasich and Mr. Huckabee.

Civis took another step and weighted its sample under two scenarios: one reflecting the adult population of Republicans, the other of primary voters. Primary voters aren’t just likelier to vote; they’re also older and likelier to be registered Republicans. Mr. Trump fared two percentage points worse among primary voters than Civis estimated he would have among all adults. Other candidates, like Mr. Bush and Mr. Carson, actually lost more ground. Like Mr. Trump, Mr. Bush also seems to be benefiting from name recognition.

On the other hand, Mrs. Fiorina gained around three points in the primary electorate — although she still held no more than 5 percent — while Mr. Kasich, Mr. Walker, Mr. Huckabee and Rand Paul each picked up about a point.

Parsing the results by vote history helps illustrate that Mr. Trump’s support was lowest among the most frequent voters. Mr. Trump had 15 percent support among voters who had participated in a primary since 2008, but he had 22 percent of the vote among Republicans who did not vote in the 2012 general election.

Mr. Trump’s seven-point gap was rivaled by Mr. Bush at five, and Chris Christie at four. Mr. Christie had virtually no support — at 1 percent of the vote — among voters who had voted in a primary since 2008.

On the other hand, Mr. Kasich fared four points better among voters who had participated in a primary than those who had not. Mr. Walker, Mr. Cruz, Mrs. Fiorina and Mr. Huckabee all fared three points better.

Over all, the data is consistent with the view that Mr. Trump’s support might be overstated by public polls. But he leads among voters who have participated in one or 12 elections. His challenge among likely voters isn’t necessarily unique. His lead might be modestly overstated, but it’s not a mirage.
DonaldTrump  poll  election 
august 2015 by jtyost2
Why Bernie Sanders’s Momentum Is Not Built to Last
Bernie Sanders is surging. He trailed Hillary Rodham Clinton by as much as 50 points in the polls a few months ago, but he has pulled within 10 points in New Hampshire, according to some surveys. He has doubled his support in Iowa over the last month. The signs of his support are palpable: Last week, about 10,000 people attended an event in Madison, Wis., and he announced that he raised $15 million in the first three months of his campaign.

But the Sanders surge is about to hit a wall: the rank and file of the Democratic primary electorate.

Senator Sanders is now doing nearly as well as Barack Obama did among liberal voters in 2008. That makes him competitive in relatively liberal contests, like the Iowa caucuses or the New Hampshire primary.

But Mrs. Clinton still holds a huge lead among moderate and conservative Democrats — white and nonwhite alike. Whether Mr. Sanders can close the gap among these voters will determine the seriousness of his candidacy and whether he can pick up more delegates in other primaries. There aren’t many reasons to expect he will break through, and he certainly isn’t doing it yet.
BernieSanders  usa  politics  election 
august 2015 by jtyost2
Support for Bernie Sanders Is Deep but Narrow
The pattern of Mr. Sanders’s support resembles Mr. Obama’s support from 2008, but with nearly no support from the black voters who decided that election in Mr. Obama’s favor.

Mr. Sanders’s challenge among nonwhite and conservative voters has been widely reported. But the geographic concentration of Mr. Sanders’s activist base is striking even in the context of those expectations. While more than a thousand people showed up to Sanders events in Seattle, San Francisco and Portland, Ore., there were equally populated Southern and nonwhite areas where there were no Sanders events at all. His top 15 congressional districts, each with at least 750 registered attendees, were all in Oregon, Washington, California — or Vermont. Next came Boulder, Colo.

The South was Mr. Sanders’s weakest region: Mississippi, Georgia, Louisiana and South Carolina all sat at the bottom of the list. The turnout for Mr. Sanders — measured by comparing the number of RSVPs with the number of Obama voters — was 12 times as great in Oregon as in Mississippi. There were more attendees in Washington than in the far larger state of Texas.

Mr. Sanders’s support among liberal activists is impressive — and it’s enough to make him a force in the primaries. He is competitive with Hillary Rodham Clinton in white, liberal states like Oregon or Vermont. He should fare well in Western caucuses, too. Measured as a share of the Obama vote, the turnout for Mr. Sanders is well above average in every Western state, except Arizona and Nevada.

But Mr. Sanders’s support was an order of magnitude weaker farther east, including the two states with early delegate decisions. There were more attendees in the Seattle metro area than all of the early states — New Hampshire, Iowa, Nevada and South Carolina — combined.

To win the nomination, Mr. Sanders will need to have a far broader coalition. Mr. Obama won all of these localities in 2008 against Mrs. Clinton, but he only barely won the nomination — despite receiving overwhelming support from black voters. Without the support of black voters, Mr. Obama would have been crushed. If Mr. Sanders can’t broaden his base beyond liberal bastions, that would be his fate, as well.

Perhaps most symbolic of the challenge for Mr. Sanders was Illinois’s First Congressional District, Mr. Obama’s old stamping grounds on the south side of Chicago. In that majority black district Mr. Obama won 80 percent of the vote in 2012. There, just 10 people were registered for a Sanders event.

Mr. Sanders faces that challenge in majority black areas across the country. Last month, The Upshot published an illustration of how Mr. Obama might have fared without that historic edge among black voters. The geography of Sanders supporters’ attendance is strongly aligned to those estimates. Attendance for Sanders events increases lineally with Mr. Obama’s support among nonblack voters; if there was an area where Mr. Obama fared twice as well among nonblack voters as another area, Mr. Sanders also tended to have twice as many volunteers.

This distribution of support would have been a losing one eight years ago for Mr. Obama. To overcome it, Mr. Sanders will have to do far better than Mr. Obama across the board.
BernieSanders  usa  politics  election 
august 2015 by jtyost2
Bernie Sanders’s Support: Even More Unequal Than U.S. Incomes - The New York Times
But the Gini coefficient doesn’t have to be about income inequality. It’s a measure of distribution — we can change the terms to measure the inequality of something else, like the turnout for Mr. Sanders’s national organizing party at the end of last month.

Call it the Berni coefficient. It’s just like the Gini, except instead of looking at the distribution of money among people, we’re looking at the distribution of Sanders volunteers among congressional districts. A coefficient of one would mean that all Sanders’s volunteers were in one congressional district; zero would mean every district had the same amount.

By this measure, the Sanders coalition is even more unequal than the wealth in the United States. The Sanders coefficient clocks in at 0.483. It basically resembles the state of Connecticut, the second-most unequal state in the country (New York is No. 1).
BernieSanders  politics  usa  election  inequality 
august 2015 by jtyost2
Donald Trump’s Newest Enemy: Fox News
For Trump, whether this is a flesh wound or something deeper is also unclear. He’s surged to the top of the polls by winning every fight he’s picked so far. But for Trump’s troubled campaign, Ailes could prove to be a tougher opponent than any he’s faced. After all, no other candidate controls the television network that reaches the biggest block of primary voters. Those are the kind of poll numbers that are tough to beat.
DonaldTrump  politics  usa  election  republicans  foxnews  media  journalism  ethics 
august 2015 by jtyost2
This was supposed to be the strongest GOP field in decades. Yet Donald Trump is leading it. - Vox
Trump's rise suggests that Republican voters are not quite as excited by the Republican field as elites hoped. There's little anecdotal evidence of Marco Rubio thrilling crowds in Iowa, or Rand Paul creating a libertarian earthquake in Iowa. Jeb Bush tends to poll second behind Trump, but there, too, his supporters tend to sound more pragmatic than inspired.

I agree with Bump. I don't think Donald Trump will win. The most recent CBS News poll found that while 24 percent of Republicans wanted Trump to win the nomination, 26 percent said Trump was the one candidate they absolutely didn't want to see win the nomination.

But this 2012-esque cycle wasn't supposed to repeat itself in 2016. This time was supposed to be different. The Republican field was supposed to be strong enough that the base was excited about candidates the party was proud of, rather than candidates the party was embarrassed by.

But the first debate is Thursday night, and Donald Trump will be at center stage because a large plurality of Republican voters say they would prefer him to any of the more credible candidates in the race. That might change as the primary wears on, but it wasn't ever supposed to happen in the first place.
DonaldTrump  politics  republicans  election  2016 
august 2015 by jtyost2
Hillary Clinton is not a great campaigner, but she's mastered the art of inside politics
The 2015 Netroots Nation conference was a disaster for Bernie Sanders and Martin O’Malley. But it was a win for Hillary Clinton.

Interrupted by #BlackLivesMatter activists, Sanders began talking about his record on civil rights issues over the last 50 years. It was awkward enough that he was later mocked mercilessly on Twitter with the hashtag #BernieSoBlack. O’Malley got in hot water, too, when he responded to the #BlackLivesMatter folks by saying “all lives matter.” He apologized for it Sunday.

That’s because Sanders and O’Malley are rookies.

Neither candidate has run a presidential campaign before. This is Clinton’s fourth, counting the two she was engaged in when her husband sought and won the presidency. One of the ways she’s shown her savvy as an inside player is to avoid the common pitfalls that take out lesser candidates. Trying to win an argument at Netroots Nation is one of them. Clinton remembers her appearance in 2007, when she was booed by the liberal, Obama-leaning crowd for saying that not all lobbyists are the scum of the earth.

So she skipped Netroots Nation and watched the ensuing controversy. Two days later, in a Facebook Q&A session, Clinton gave a carefully constructed response to a query about #BlackLivesMatter.

“Black lives matter. Everyone in this country should stand firmly behind that,” Clinton said. “We need to acknowledge some hard truths about race and justice in this country, and one of those hard truths is that racial inequality is not merely a symptom of economic inequality. Black people across America still experience racism every day.”

Those were the words activists were looking for.

The reason Clinton didn’t fall prey to the Netroots Nation trap is the same reason that she has lined up a majority of Democratic voters, nearly half of the Democratic members of Congress, economists and education experts who can hardly stand each other, and major identity constituencies within the party: She knows how to play the inside game.

This is something people often forget after watching Hillary Clinton’s uninspiring appearances on the stump: She’s not a great campaigner, but she’s a damn good candidate.
hillaryclinton  politics  democrats  election 
august 2015 by jtyost2
Hillary Clinton Was Liberal. Hillary Clinton Is Liberal. | FiveThirtyEight
The fact that Clinton was seen as just as liberal as Obama is probably the reason she did as well with liberals in the 2008 primary as she did overall. According to exit polls, Clinton received, on average, 46 percent of the vote from those who identified as liberal and 45 percent from those who identified as very liberal. Overall, she received 48 percent of the vote, according to exit polls.

Clinton got beat on the left on one issue the last time she ran for president: the Iraq War. But unless your name is Jeb Bush, the Iraq War just isn’t as important to a presidential candidacy in 2016 as it was in 2008, when it was the second-most-important issue in the Democratic primary. Clinton beat Obama on the other big issues, including the longtime liberal cause of health care.

Overall, the “liberal Clinton” isn’t a new phenomenon. Given her support for liberal positions in the past and the support that liberals have given her, it shouldn’t be surprising that Clinton is staking out liberal positions to start the 2016 campaign.
hillaryclinton  politics  government  election  2016 
may 2015 by jtyost2
Rand Paul Apparently Paid $100,000 for RandPaul.com
Federal campaign records show Paul used his Senate reelection committee to pay $100,980 to Escrow.com, a domain service, on March 27 for what is described as a “domain name.” Previously, Paul’s political homepage was RandPaul2016.com, an address that now automatically redirects to his RandPaul.com page.
RandPaul  politics  election  usa  domain 
may 2015 by jtyost2
Carly Fiorina and Ben Carson launch Republican 2016 bids - BBC News
Carly Fiorina, the former chief executive of Hewlett-Packard, and neurosurgeon Ben Carson have joined the growing 2016 Republican field.
Ms Fiorina is the first female in her party to enter the White House race and Mr Carson the first African American.
Both are political outsiders, unlike the senators and governors they now come up against for the nomination.
Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Jeb Bush, who has not yet officially entered, are among the frontrunners.
Ms Clinton was immediately targeted by Ms Fiorina when she made her announcement on ABC's Good Morning America programme.
"I have a lot of admiration for Hillary Clinton, but she clearly is not trustworthy," Ms Fiorina said, pointing to the recent controversy over Ms Clinton's use of a private email server when secretary of state.
republicans  election  politics  usa  2016 
may 2015 by jtyost2
Campaign finance reformers just won a massive victory at the Supreme Court - Vox
The ruling's most surprising aspect is that Chief Justice Roberts has abandoned the conservatives on this issue, to side with the liberal supporters of limits on campaign fundraising. Rick Hasen, a law professor at University of California Irvine, called the decision "a HUGE win for those who support reasonable limits on judicial elections," and said that Roberts's vote in particular was "surprising, welcome, and momentous."

Roberts's rationale was that judicial fundraising should be treated very differently than political fundraising. "A judge's role differs from that of a politician," he writes. "Unlike a politician, who is expected to be appropriately responsive to the preferences of supporters, a judge in deciding cases may not follow the preferences of his supporters or provide any special consideration to his campaign donors."

He relies on the argument that upholding "public confidence in the integrity of the judiciary" is a compelling interest for states. "Simply put, the public may lack confidence in a judge's ability to administer justice without fear or favor if he comes to office by asking for favors," he writes.

Interestingly, Roberts says the Florida restriction only applied to "a narrow slice of speech." He emphasized that judicial candidates are still "free to discuss any issue with any person at any time; to write letters, give speeches, and put up billboards; to contact potential supporters in person, on the phone, or online; and to promote their campaigns through the media. Though they cannot ask for money, they can direct their campaign committees to do so."
election  freedomofspeech  politics  government  supremecourt  legal  justice  civilrights 
april 2015 by jtyost2
Why a Ruling for Same-Sex Marriage Would Help Republicans
High and growing turnout among white evangelical voters, along with growing Republican margins among white evangelicals, helped Republicans offset this trend. According to the exit polls, white evangelical voters have grown to 36 percent from 29 percent of white voters, while the Republican share of the evangelical vote increased to 79 percent from 69 percent between 2000 and 2012. There is also evidence that Republicans have made modest but smaller gains among white Catholics over the same period.

But as younger, less Christian voters age and their turnout rises, it becomes harder to imagine the Republicans continuing to compensate with higher turnout and support among white evangelicals. In the pre-election polling data, 84 percent of white evangelicals said they would definitely vote, more than any religious or racial group. It’s also hard to see how Republicans will win a much larger share of the white evangelical vote, which supported Mr. Romney by a margin equal to the president’s margin among nonwhite voters.

If Republicans are running out of room to expand their margins among evangelical voters, then additional gains among white voters will have to come from nonevangelicals. And if you assume that cultural issues are the principal reason white voters break so strongly along cultural lines, then further Republican gains among white voters could be well served by a strategic retreat from same-sex marriage.
republicans  politics  election  government  demographics 
april 2015 by jtyost2
Scott Walker’s Legal Immigration Faux Pas | FiveThirtyEight
When you do offer respondents that option and ask specifically about legal immigration, a majority of Republicans have not been in favor of decreasing immigration levels. A Pew Research Center survey from May 2013 found 53 percent of self-identified Republicans wanted legal immigration levels either increased (20 percent) or kept constant (33 percent). A CBS News poll from April 2013 found that 60 percent of Republicans wanted legal immigration levels either increased (22 percent) or kept constant (38 percent). And conservative Republicans were about as likely as liberal and moderate Republicans to favor maintaining or increasing legal immigration levels, according to the Pew survey.

If Walker could make legal immigration a binary question (increase or decrease) or tie it to illegal immigration, he might be able to sell a “lower legal immigration” position in a Republican primary. The problem: Party actors, as discussed above, are unlikely to let this happen.

Given the backlash Walker has already encountered, we’ll see if he’ll stick to his guns. He’s already been accused of changing his position on illegal immigration. Flip-flopping isn’t great for politicians, but advocating a position that neither voters or the party establishment support is probably worse.
immigration  politics  scottwalker  republicans  election 
april 2015 by jtyost2
Zombies of 2016
In the world of Republican politics, however, voodoo’s grip has never been stronger. Would-be presidential candidates must audition in front of prominent supply-siders to prove their fealty to failed doctrine. Tax proposals like Marco Rubio’s would create a giant hole in the budget, then claim that this hole would be filled by a miraculous economic upsurge. Supply-side economics, it’s now clear, is the ultimate zombie: no amount of evidence or logic can kill it.

So why has the Republican Party experienced a zombie apocalypse? One reason, surely, is the fact that most Republican politicians represent states or districts that will never, ever vote for a Democrat, so the only thing they fear is a challenge from the far right. Another is the need to tell Big Money what it wants to hear: a candidate saying anything realistic about Obamacare or tax cuts won’t survive the Sheldon Adelson/Koch brothers primary.

Whatever the reasons, the result is clear. Pundits will try to pretend that we’re having a serious policy debate, but, as far as issues go, 2016 is already set up to be the election of the living dead.
politics  republicans  election  government  congress 
april 2015 by jtyost2
The Hillary Clinton Steamroller Rumbles To Life | FiveThirtyEight
Clinton’s strength is unique. Most years, the campaign is barely underway in early April. And in the years in which endorsements come quickly, elected officials usually wait at least until a candidate formally declares.

But here’s the more amazing thing about those 27 endorsements: That total would still be impressive even if no one else were to endorse Clinton. Only George W. Bush’s 2000 machine picked up more senator endorsements (33), and it took him the entire primary campaign. He didn’t reach 27 until November 1999. The only other two campaigns to come close to 27 were Bob Dole’s in 1996 and Al Gore’s in 2000; each picked up 26. Like Bush, Dole and Gore rolled over the competition.

Just as important as the number of endorsements is where they are coming from on the ideological spectrum. Clinton is earning endorsements from the left, center and right of the Democratic caucus. In this kernel density function of endorsers plotted against their congressional voting record, we see that the senators who have endorsed Clinton look ideologically very similar to those who haven’t (more negative scores are more liberal):
hillaryclinton  politics  election  government  democrats  2016 
april 2015 by jtyost2
The richest 0.01 percent of Americans gave 42 percent of political donations in 2012
Forget the top one percent, the top 0.01 percent of Americans gave nearly 42 percent of all political donation dollars in the 2012 election cycle. Just over 30,000 individuals contributed nearly half of all money. It is no coincidence that this proportion has increased steadily as economic inequality has increased. In 1990 when I was born, the figure was just under 13 percent. If we expanded the scope to the full one percent, you can be damn sure they gave the overwhelming majority of dollars in recent years.
politics  economics  statistics  election  ethics  usa  government 
april 2015 by jtyost2
The Disastrous Clinton Post-Presidency
The Clintons’ charitable initiatives were a kind of quasi-government run by themselves, which was staffed by their own loyalists and made up the rules as it went along. Their experience running the actual government, with its formal accountability and disclosure, went reasonably well. Their experience running their own privatized mini-state has been a fiasco.
politics  hillaryclinton  billclinton  legal  ethics  government  deptofstate  democrats  election 
april 2015 by jtyost2
The Koch brothers can't hand-pick a GOP nominee — but they don't need to - Vox
The billionaire Koch brothers' plans for 2016 have dominated political headlines this week.

On Monday afternoon, it looked like the brothers were endorsing Scott Walker. By Monday evening, David Koch had declared his neutrality. Twenty-four hours later, Charles Koch explained there were five GOP contenders in the mix for the brothers' backing. And on Wednesday, Politico's Ken Vogel obtained a memo outlining the brothers' spending plans for 2016.

What's the upshot of all this? Overall, it's clear that the Kochs are being bolder than ever in their attempts to mold the political process to their will. They're trying to raise an astonishing amount of money to ensure Republican victories in 2016 — and they're holding out their potential endorsement, and the cash that could come with it, to help ensure GOP contenders back the policies they want.

While the Kochs' influence is important, it shouldn't be oversimplified. Their decision not to endorse right now seems to be an acknowledgement that they can't hand-pick one candidate in a wide-open field. Instead, the brothers are trying to keep their options open, hoping not to lose leverage over whoever becomes the eventual nominee.

However, in a sense, they don't need to be too picky. Because on the economic issues they care about most, the key GOP contenders are already very conservative. The Republican Party, overall, has already moved quite far in the Kochs' direction.
politics  superpac  government  republicans  election  2016 
april 2015 by jtyost2
The 2016 Republican Candidates Prove the GOP Didn't Learn Anything From 2012
The 2016 campaign is only a few weeks old, and most candidates haven’t even outlined their policy platforms. But it’s already clear that the Republican candidates are positioning themselves to the right of Mitt Romney. Eventually, Cruz and other hardline conservatives start attacking Bush and Rubio, as relatively centrist Republicans, for being too nice to undocumented immigrants and the poor. If the field is already this conservative, imagine where they’ll be a year from now.

This isn’t necessarily a huge advantage for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. I endorse Jonathan Chait’s theory that the electorate has largely transformed into two partisan blocs that vote for the same party in each election. As the Democratic bloc increases, that will give Clinton and future Democrats a built-in advantage in presidential elections.

But the Republican Party’s move to the right still could have a meaningful impact on 2016. First, the lack of a Democratic challenger means Clinton does not have to move significantly to the left to win the primary. That puts her in a better position to promote center-left policies that appeal to the few remaining swing voters. Second, the Republican Party’s position on immigration only hardens Hispanic beliefs that the GOP doesn’t care about them. Third, it’s hard to imagine that the Republican field can beat up on each other and on Clinton for the next 19 months without insulting key voters. Whether those insults come from Ted Cruz about Hispanics or Rand Paul about the poor, I don’t know.

If the GOP is truly determined to shed its image as hostile to undocumented immigrants and the poor, its candidates must go beyond voicing concern about those groups. They must propose realistic policies to make these people’s lives better. The 2012 election should have been a wake up call in this respect. But based on what we’ve heard from the party’s new presidential crop, it clearly wasn’t.
politics  republicans  government  election  2016  hillaryclinton 
april 2015 by jtyost2
Kochs Signal Support for Scott Walker
Charles G. and David H. Koch, the influential and big-spending conservative donors, have a favorite in the race for the Republican nomination: Gov. Scott Walker of Wisconsin.

On Monday, at a fund-raising event in Manhattan for the New York State Republican Party, David Koch told donors that he and his brother, who oversee one of the biggest private political organizations in the country, believed that Mr. Walker was the Republican Party’s best hope for recapturing the White House.

“We will support whoever the candidate is,” said Mr. Koch, according to two people who attended the event. “But it should be Scott Walker.”

The remark — made before dozens of top New York donors who had gathered to hear Mr. Walker speak at the Union League Club — could effectively end one of the most closely watched contests in the “invisible primary,” a period where candidates crisscross the country seeking not the support of voters but the blessing of their party’s biggest donors and fund-raisers.

Most of the leading Republican candidates have aggressively courted the Kochs, who control a network of political nonprofits, “super PACs” and hundreds of like-minded donors, all of which are planning to spend almost $900 million over the next two years advancing conservative candidates and policies.

But while the Kochs are influential among their peers, it is unclear whether they will favor Mr. Walker with more than good will.
CharlesKoch  DavidKoch  scottwalker  republicans  politics  usa  election  2016 
april 2015 by jtyost2
How Rand Paul is turning off Republicans by stretching the truth - Vox
Paul ripped John McCain, Mitt Romney, Paul Ryan and Orrin Hatch for not being pure enough on tax cuts.

"When is the last time you heard a Republican run for president who said they will cut taxes or follow through with it?" he asked with rhetorical flourish. "With our last two nominees, I do not remember tax cuts being part of the program."

Here's McCain calling for tax cuts, and here's Romney. And, of course, there's a U-haul truck full of Republican candidates promising to do just that right now. It's one thing for Paul to present himself as a purist, it's another to accuse fellow Republicans of failing a tax-cut litmus test -- especially when he can't keep his own story straight.

On Saturday, Paul appealed for tax cuts that would benefit the poor, some of which he's repeatedly voted against -- including on a non-binding budget amendment just last month -- on the Senate floor. That amendment was adopted on a 73-27 vote with fellow Republican presidential hopefuls Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz voting in favor. He's also misstated the level of fraud in the earned-income tax credit program.

In private conversations, Republicans often say they can't trust that Paul will say the same thing tomorrow that he's saying today. His tendency to run away from himself -- and to misrepresent the positions of fellow Republicans -- undermines the core appeal of his candidacy.

"Given that Rand had staked foreign policy positions far out of the Republican mainstream, it's no surprise that he has modified some of those positions over the past weeks and months. But that doesn't mean, especially when it comes to Israel, that Rand's positions, old and new, won't be viewed skeptically by a large portion of Republican primary voters," one veteran GOP strategist said.

Then there's Paul's recalibration on foreign policy, in which he's moved from hard-core isolationist to isolationist with a long footnote describing the limited instances in which it makes sense for the U.S. to engage abroad.

Paul is sprinting away from the isolationist tones he sounded for most of his brief tenure in Washington.
RandPaul  politics  republicans  election  2016  taxes 
april 2015 by jtyost2
How Rand Paul is turning off Republicans by stretching the truth -
On Saturday, Paul appealed for tax cuts that would benefit the poor, some of which he’s repeatedly voted against — including on a non-binding budget amendment just last month — on the Senate floor. That amendment was adopted on a 73–27 vote with fellow Republican presidential hopefuls Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz voting in favor. Paul has also misstated the level of fraud in the earned-income tax credit program.

In private conversations, Republicans often say they can’t trust that Paul will say the same thing tomorrow that he’s saying today. His tendency to run away from himself — and to misrepresent the positions of fellow Republicans — undermines the core appeal of his candidacy
politics  republicans  RandPaul  election  taxes  government  from twitter_favs
april 2015 by jtyost2
EXCLUSIVE: Hillary Clinton Said to Hire Former Wall Street Cop as Campaign CFO - Bloomberg Politics
Hillary Clinton is planning to name Gary Gensler, a former top federal financial regulator and strong advocate for strict Wall Street rules, as the chief financial officer of her campaign, according to a Democrat familiar with the decision.

Gensler, in his role as chairman of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, was a leading player in the drafting and then implementation of the Dodd-Frank Act, the financial rules that President Barack Obama signed into law in 2010 in the wake of the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression. Gensler also served in President Bill Clinton's Treasury Department. 

For Clinton, who has been fighting her left flank’s concern that she is too cozy with Wall Street, Gensler is a notable hire. He became known as someone with sharp elbows —even during his negotiations within the Obama administration—in his push for tighter regulation.

Clinton's campaign said it does not comment on personnel decisions before they are finalized. A phone and e-mail message to Gensler weren't immediately returned. 
hillaryclinton  politics  election  2016 
april 2015 by jtyost2
Maya Harris is Hillary Clinton’s most interesting hire yet
But the third member of the team, Maya Harris, is perhaps the most interesting. Harris, the sister of California Senate candidate Kamala Harris, isn’t a known member of Clintonland. She didn’t hold a key position in Bill Clinton’s White House, or on Hillary Clinton’s 2008 campaign, or in Hillary Clinton’s State Department. She’s a law professor and, most recently, a senior fellow at the Center for American Progress, where she published only a single paper — but it’s a paper that may prove key to Clinton’s 2016 efforts to hold, and even expand, Obama’s coalition.

The paper’s title is “Women of Color: A Growing Force in the American Electorate,” and in it, Harris criticizes politicians and political strategists for only addressing the concerns of women of color “as a part of broader efforts aimed at women, youth, or a specific racial or ethnic group.” Women of color, Harris argues, are their own, incredibly fast-growing voting bloc, and any politician who wants to win them needs to make sure “their interests are priorities on the policy agenda.”

But Harris’s paper isn’t just about how to win the votes of women of color; it’s also about why politicians should try. She spends most of the paper laying out just how decisive these voters will be in future elections. “Women are the country’s largest voting bloc, and women of color are the fastest-growing segment of that group,” she writes, going on to note that “women of color represent 74 percent of the growth in eligible women voters since 2000.”

Moreover, women of color aren’t just eligible to vote — they really do vote, at least if you give them something to vote for. This chart from her paper makes the point well — in every subgroup you can think of, women vote at higher rates than men, and African-American women vote at higher rates than anyone:
hillaryclinton  politics  race  gender  feminism  culture  election 
april 2015 by jtyost2
What Hillary Clinton’s campaign announcement video tells us
The video contains zero policy specifics. But it contains the seeds of an agenda in the manner in which it defines its subjects’ economic challenges: The woman who is moving house “just” to get her child into a better school; the woman who is pondering how to reenter the job market after five years raising kids; the immigrant brothers taking the risk to set up a business; the college student uncertain about how hospitable the job market will prove.

In the video, Clinton says: “Americans have fought their way back from tough economic times, but the deck is still stacked in favor of those at the top. Everyday Americans need a champion. And I want to be that champion.” Things are getting better, but the problem still remains that thanks to deep, long-running trends — and a political system that is in many ways too paralyzed to address them — economy remains rigged in favor of the rich. In this sense, the Clinton diagnosis of the problems those “everyday Americans” face is not substantially different from that of Obama.

We already know the eventual GOP nominee will agree that the economy is rigged against ordinary Americans, but will diagnose the reason for it very differently: The primary obstacle to economic mobility is government; lower taxes and fewer regulations will unshackle the private sector’s power to shower everyone with widely distributed gains from runaway growth.

By contrast, Clinton’s agenda will look a lot like the “inclusive prosperity” blueprint from the Center for American Progress: Paid sick leave, child care, universal pre-K, and other family-friendly policies to remove barriers to work for women; investments to upgrade the nation’s infrastructure and stimulate demand; more spending on education and job training to keep pace with the challenges wrought by globalization and technological change; a minimum wage hike and policies designed to increase workers’ bargaining power and profit-sharing to boost stagnating wages. While Clinton has a lot to clarify, and will have to navigate differences among Democrats on various economic questions, the basic premise of her agenda will be that a robust policy response on many fronts is imperative to restoring eroding living standards.

One of the hallmarks of the Obama era has been that midterm electorates have been dominated by voters who agree with the smoking-hellscape portrayal of his presidency, while presidential year electorates have not. Thus, after the 2010 rout, Republicans were shocked to discover, a mere two years later, that their core assumption about Obama’s first term — there was no way he could get reelected, given how much of a disaster he had proved — was deeply flawed. My guess is the Clinton team believes Republicans, flush from their epic 2014 victory, will again over-read public disapproval of Obama and will mistakenly premise their strategy too heavily on the notion that the public agrees the Obama presidency was a disaster. And as Jonathan Chait notes, there is a decent chance the economy will continue to expand; that the desire for change will not prove as potent as Republicans expect; and that national demographics will continue to favor Democrats.

The Clinton gamble is that swing voters won’t necessarily be seduced by the GOP promise of dramatic change, particularly after hundreds and hundreds of millions of dollars are spent defining that change through a contrast of the GOP nominee’s agenda with her own. Just as happened in 2012.
hillaryclinton  politics  election  2016 
april 2015 by jtyost2
Rubio: I’d grow Guantánamo
Rubio said that he believes the next president will suffer from the blow-back of Obama’s Guantánamo releases, calling the recent history of releases “atrocious” and saying a “significant percentage have returned to the battlefield.”

The Bush administration released more than 530 Guantánamo detainees, 20.7 percent of whom, according to the Directorate of National Intelligence are “confirmed as re-engaging” — the intelligence community’s expression for recidivism — based on mostly secret intelligence. Obama released another 115, of whom 5.2 percent were confirmed recidivists.

The figure rises considerably for the Bush-era releases when factoring in those former detainees suspected as opposed to confirmed as recidivists, according to figures released last month that crunch statistics as of Jan. 15.

A total of 122 captives remain at Guantánamo, 56 of them cleared for transfer with security assurances. It is Obama administration policy not to add to the population of the prison.

Rubio was particularly critical of an Obama decision to send six cleared detainees to Uruguay, saying the Syrian, Palestinian and Tunisian men sent there for resettlement in December are not being effectively monitored and “present a danger in the short and long term for our country and the world.”

Rubio staked out the position on the issue of Guantánamo on the first day of his candidacy. Fellow GOP hopefuls Rand Paul and Ted Cruz, both senators, have not outlined their campaign policies but have been critical of Obama’s handling of the Guantánamo issue.
MarcoRubio  politics  GuantanamoBay  terrorism  election 
april 2015 by jtyost2
Clinton kicks off Iowa campaign in coffee shop - BBC News
Hillary Clinton has begun campaigning in Iowa, as the former secretary of state looks to win over voters in the first primary season contest.
Mrs Clinton plans to visit a community college as well as hold a round-table discussion with students and teachers in Monticello.
Her first stop after a road trip from her home in New York was in a coffee shop in the town of Le Claire.
Mrs Clinton came third in the state's 2008 caucus.
Her campaign has said she will stick to small gatherings in Iowa to better connect with voters ahead of a more formal rally.
In a fundraising email on Monday, Mrs Clinton, who was considered a frontrunner before she announced, told supporters she would "work my heart out to earn every single vote".
iowa  politics  hillaryclinton  2016  election 
april 2015 by jtyost2
Unlike Hillary Clinton, the entire GOP field is either obscure or unpopular
It is certainly true that Clinton’s just-barely-over-water approval ratings aren’t overwhelming. But elections are zero-sum. The Clinton-Bush gap and the Clinton-Cruz gaps are both enormous. It is true that Clinton’s advantages over Scott Walker and Marco Rubio are not that large, but she is dramatically better-known than either of those guys.

So what you make of this chart largely comes down to whether you think it’s plausible that these obscure-but-slightly-less-popular-than-Clinton Republicans can maintain their level of popularity while becoming better-known.

I’m going to say no.

It’s very likely that outside of their home state, the Rubios and Walkers of the world are better-known to people with conservative leanings than people with liberal leanings. They’ve already introduced themselves, in other words, to a self-selected audience that is predisposed to view them favorably. As more people hear of them and learn that they have largely mainstream conservative views similar to those of Jeb Bush and Chris Christie, they are likely to end up with approval ratings that are similar to Bush’s and Christie’s.
hillaryclinton  politics  republicans  election  government  2016  poll  chrischristie  JebBush  MarcoRubio 
april 2015 by jtyost2
Marco Rubio launches 2016 White House run - BBC News
Florida Senator Marco Rubio has urged Americans to look to the future as he launched his 2016 White House campaign.
Mr Rubio, 43, said in a Miami speech he would "lead the way toward a new American century".
He presented the presidential election as "a generational choice" and warned against going back to "the leaders and ideas of the past".
He is the third Republican to officially announce a candidacy after Senators Rand Paul and Ted Cruz.
It comes a day after former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said she would stand for the Democratic nomination.
Referring to her but not by name, Mr Rubio said: "A leader from yesterday began a campaign for president by promising to take us back to yesterday."
Mr Rubio, a Cuban-American, has been a harsh critic of President Barack Obama's policies, especially on immigration and the diplomatic thaw with Cuba.
He said in his speech that his poor Cuban parents had lived the American Dream but he questioned whether that dream was still possible due to the burden of taxes and regulation.
MarcoRubio  politics  election  government  usa 
april 2015 by jtyost2
Rand Paul’s abortion remarks weren’t a stumble. They were smart.
The late-term-abortion debate is one Republicans want to be having, because it’s a place where they find there is pretty widespread agreement on their side.
politics  RandPaul  election  abortion  poll 
april 2015 by jtyost2
Hillary Clinton 'to announce 2016 presidential campaign' - BBC News
Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton is to announce she is running for president on Sunday, various US media report.
Mrs Clinton is expected to make the announcement on social media.
The 67-year-old will then travel to Iowa and New Hampshire, two early primary contests in the 2016 race.
The former first lady previously ran for president in 2008 and is already considered a strong contender for the Democratic presidential nomination.
Mrs Clinton is expected to release a video outlining her campaign themes but will put off a large, formal speech.
hillaryclinton  politics  election  democrats 
april 2015 by jtyost2
Rand Paul announces 2016 White House bid - BBC News
Senator Rand Paul has announced he is launching a 2016 presidential election campaign on the Republican ticket.
"Today begins the journey to take America back," he said in a campaign event in Kentucky.
Mr Paul, a Kentucky senator, stands out from the Republican pack because of his comparatively libertarian views.
He becomes the second Republican to enter the contest that concludes in November 2016.
Speaking in front of a large crowd at the official campaign kick-off, he said: "The Washington machine that gobbles up our freedoms and invades every nook and cranny of our lives must be stopped."
A first-term senator hailing from one of the country's most well-known libertarian families, Mr Paul first held elected office when he rode a wave of Tea Party popularity to the US senate in 2010.
Once there, he soon drew attention when he spoke for more than 12 hours in protest about President Barack Obama's drone policy and the nomination of John Brennan to lead the CIA.
RandPaul  politics  election  2016  government  usa 
april 2015 by jtyost2
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