jm + social-distancing   7

How they flattened the curve during the 1918 Spanish Flu
How some cities ‘flattened the curve’ during the 1918 flu pandemic
Social distancing isn’t a new idea—it saved thousands of American lives during the last great pandemic. Here's how it worked.


(via Vipul Ved Prakash)
via:vipul  covid-19  history  coronavirus  pandemics  flu  1918  social-distancing 
3 days ago by jm
'Estimating the number of infections and the impact of nonpharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 in 11 European countries'
new paper from the Imperial College COVID-19 epidemiological team:

'Following the emergence of a novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) and its spread outside of China, Europe
is now experiencing large epidemics. In response, many European countries have implemented
unprecedented non-pharmaceutical interventions including case isolation, the closure of schools and
universities, banning of mass gatherings and/or public events, and most recently, widescale social
distancing including local and national lockdowns.

In this report, we use a semi-mechanistic Bayesian hierarchical model to attempt to infer the impact
of these interventions across 11 European countries. Our methods assume that changes in the
reproductive number – a measure of transmission - are an immediate response to these interventions
being implemented rather than broader gradual changes in behaviour. Our model estimates these
changes by calculating backwards from the deaths observed over time to estimate transmission that
occurred several weeks prior, allowing for the time lag between infection and death.'
covid-19  papers  europe  uk  lockdowns  pandemics  social-distancing  modelling  medicine 
4 days ago by jm
Notes From the Battlefield March 30, 2020 - SAGES
'Despite that devastation from the disease still continues, and being too early to draw any definitive conclusions, there are some signs that the slope of COVID-19 new cases in Italy may be starting to slow down. Italian epidemiologists feel it is the result of the strict physical distancing measures. As health care providers, this appears to be the best preventive measure to emphasize and possibly the only intervention currently available to overcome this epidemic.'
pandemics  covid-19  italy  medicine  social-distancing 
5 days ago by jm
'Impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to reduce COVID19 mortality and healthcare demand'
This is the report from the Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team which, it seems, *finally* got the UK and US to realise that this is going to require a massive social-distancing and lockdown to avoid killing millions. The graph on the last page in particular is a kicker.
covid-19  health  pandemics  epidemics  medicine  social-distancing  imperial-college  uk 
17 days ago by jm
'Sustainable containment of COVID-19 using smartphones in China: Scientific and ethical underpinnings for implementation of similar approaches in other settings'
China have enforced a variety of measures aimed at social distancing including lockdowns, restrictions on movement and cordon-sanitaires, as well as the Alipay Health Code smartphone application (an add on to the WeChat app system) now adopted in over 200 cities and by 90% of individuals in one Chinese province. A separate system has been implemented in South Korea, and both have come under public scrutiny over issues of data protection and privacy.
We sought to design a broadly acceptable version of this platform, leveraging commonly used smartphone functionality. This system is currently in development, and based on a very simple algorithm, that we show through mathematical modelling will enable public health agencies to prevent a COVID-19 epidemic while minimizing social and economic disruption.

This also introduced me to a new concept, "herd protection", which is described as "Ronald Ross's great discovery: you don't need to stop all infections to stop an epidemic, you need to get and keep R<1."
papers  toread  covid-19  herd-protection  social-distancing  movement  cordons  quarantine  epidemics  pandemics  china  smartphones  location 
18 days ago by jm
If You Go Out Now, You Might Feel Guilty Later. I Do.
Others have written eloquently of the importance of social distancing. But the scale and scope of this is something every single one of us is having to grapple with. Things that felt like a dumb overreaction a week ago — “Canceling vacation? Really?” — now feel hilariously quaint. Or if they don’t, they will soon.

If you still can’t quite believe that you need to take these measures, or that people’s lives may hang in the balance, or if you still think that it will be okay because the numbers where you live aren’t so bad yet, I am not here to scold you.

But if you do go out, and you do risk infecting somebody else, you may feel the guilt — and the fear — that I’m struggling with right now. Trust me, it’s not worth it.
social-distancing  covid-19  isolation  quarantine  infection  pandemics 
20 days ago by jm

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