jm + herd-immunity   3

What happened with the UK's "herd immunity" COVID-19 strategy
"I'll tell you what happened in the UK. Over the past decade, eminent figures in public health developed complex models that would help inform the UK response to a pandemic. The response plan would allow slow spread through a population and a number of deaths that would be deemed acceptable in relation to low economic impact. Timing of population measures such as social distancing would be taken, not early, but at a times deemed to have maximal psychological impact. Measures would be taken that could protect the most vulnerable, and most of the people who got the virus would hopefully survive. Herd immunity would beneficially emerge at the end of this, and restrictions could relax. This was a ground-breaking approach compared to suppressing epidemics. It was an approach that could revolutionise the way we handled epidemics. Complex modelling is a new science, and this was cutting edge.

But a model is only ever as good as the assumptions you build it upon. The UK plan was based on models with an assumption that any new pandemic would be like an old one, like flu. And it also carried a huge flaw - there was no accounting for the highly significant variables of ventilators and critical care beds that are key to maintaining higher survival numbers."

Amazing. The sheer arrogance and hubris of assuming the model was right! Somebody will have to pay for this, it's shocking.
herd-immunity  hubris  arrogance  covid-19  uk  uk-politics  pandemics  models  data-science  epidemiology 
7 days ago by jm
Health expert brands UK's coronavirus response 'pathetic'
There were no strategies for protecting the vulnerable and there had been a failure to engage the public. “We have a superficial prime minister who has got no grasp of public health,” Ashton said. “Our lot are behaving like 19th-century colonialists playing a five-day game of cricket. “This virus will find the weak points. You can’t just plan this from an office in Whitehall. It’s pathetic. The government doesn’t seem to understand classic public health. You need to be out and about. You need to get your hands dirty – though preferably gloved and using frequent gel,” he said.
coronavirus  covid-19  guardian  uk  health  medicine  herd-immunity 
22 days ago by jm
Vaccination 'herd immunity' demonstration
'Stochastic monte-carlo epidemic SIR model to reveal herd immunity'. Fantastic demo of this important medical concept (via Colin Whittaker)
via:colinwh  stochastic  herd-immunity  random  sir  epidemics  health  immunity  vaccination  measles  medicine  monte-carlo-simulations  simulations 
april 2013 by jm

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