jerryking + rule_of_law   19

Canada must reassess its approach to China - if not, we may get steamrolled by the world’s new juggernaut - The Globe and Mail
JONATHAN MANTHORPE
CONTRIBUTED TO THE GLOBE AND MAIL
PUBLISHED JANUARY 30, 2019

.....The current CCP regime will not last forever. Dynasties never do, and the historical record in China is that they all die violently. This will likely happen to the CCP, but it’s not a good bet that it will happen anytime soon. Thus, Canada and all other countries having to engage with China while maintaining their own liberal-democratic institutions face some harsh realities. If Canada wishes to preserve its values and its standards of living based on trade in a world dominated by China, if it wishes to expand its influence as a global middle power, present and future governments in Ottawa need to prepare the ground. They need to cement political, economic social, and security ties within NATO and the G7, along with other like-minded countries. Canadian politicians need to assume a much tougher and more self-assured attitude toward Beijing than is now the case.
arbitrariness  authoritarianism  bullying  Canada  Canada-China_relations  China  Chinese_Communist_Party  Donald_Trump  dynasties  editorials  extradition  fascism  hostage_diplomacy  isolationism  Meng_Wanzhou  never_forever  rule_of_law  U.S.  Xi_Jinping 
january 2019 by jerryking
Globe editorial: With Meng affair, China shows its true face to the world - The Globe and Mail
Janaury 22, 2019

Ms. Meng's arrest in December and China’s subsequent reaction need also to be understood in the context of the Chinese government’s ambitions in the wider world. In many ways, this is not about Canada, or not only about Canada. It’s about Beijing’s determination to tilt the international order in its favour. China’s decisions to [extract reprsials].....were intended as a harbinger of the future, and are being seen as such....The regime wants other countries to know that they will pay a price if they cross Beijing. The message received has been somewhat different: This is how Beijing will behave as its influence and power increase.

The lesson to be taken from the arrests of Michael Kovrig and Michael Spavor, and from the death sentence given to Robert Schellenberg, is plain: Countries that defy Beijing may face reprisals, including having their citizens detained and maltreated.....China’s retaliatory moves against essentially random Canadians are a violation of international norms and law.....The Communist Party of China has officially banned “erroneous Western thought" – things such as the rule of law and the independence of the courts that are defining values in Canada, the United States and much of Europe....To increase its global influence, [China] has been aggressively investing in developing countries in Asia, Africa and South America in order to bring them into its orbit..... China’s detention of Mr. Kovrig and Mr. Spavor serves notice that it has abandoned all pretense of playing by any rules other than the ones set by the Communist Party.

If and when China dominates trade in a region, the rules for foreign investors in that sphere may bear little resemblance to those that Canada and its trading allies hold dear. Trade and other disputes could well be settled in an arbitrary fashion, with little recourse, and with the outcome always tilted toward Beijing.
authoritarianism  bullying  Canada  Canada-China_relations  China  editorials  extradition  fascism  hostage_diplomacy  Meng_Wanzhou  rule_of_law  Xi_Jinping  Chinese_Communist_Party  arbitrariness 
january 2019 by jerryking
Opinion | The Real China Challenge: Managing Its Decline - The New York Times
By Bret Stephens
Opinion Columnist

Nov. 29, 2018

.Bret Stephens read a deeply reported and thought-provoking series in The Times about another country of the future: China. The phrase “rise of China” has now become so commonplace that we treat it more as a fact of nature than as a prediction of a very familiar sort — one made erroneously about the Soviet Union in the 1950s and ’60s; about Japan in the ’70s and ’80s; and about the European Union in the ’90s and ’00s.....Beijing has ignored orthodox economic nostrums about the need for ever-greater market liberalization and fewer state controls while still managing to thrive. ....cruelty.... forced laborers....Tyrannies do not work in the long run....capital flight.... 46 % of wealthy Chinese wish to emigrate, most of them to the U.S.....individual rights, democratic choices, rule of law, competitive markets, high levels of transparency, low levels of government corruption, independent news sources, and freedoms of thought, conscience and speech are assets beyond price.....If you define power as the power to attract and not simply compel [jk: that is, soft power], then Beijing — with its dystopian vision to fully surveil and rate all citizens by 2020 — isn’t a rising power at all. It’s a collapsing one.......What about the skyscrapers of Guangzhou? What about the world-beating test scores of students in Shanghai?.....China’s rise is not some kind of mirage. But what matters is the future, not the past, and whether a nation built on constraining the freedoms granted to ordinary people can outpace, outsmart, and outlast another nation built on defending and broadening those freedoms....American policymakers and pundits often talk about the challenge of managing China’s rise. They had better start thinking instead of the challenge of managing its decline, beginning at the G-20 summit in Buenos Aires this weekend. Japan and Europe went gently into eclipse, and the Soviet Union surrendered without a fight (at least until its current revanchist phase).

Will China’s current leadership accept the possibility of their own decline so philosophically, after having convinced themselves of their rapid rise to primacy? Nobody should bet on it. A wounded tiger is rarely a placid one.
Bret_Stephens  capital_flight  China  China_rising  clichés  counterintuitive  decline  institutional_integrity  op-ed  rule_of_law  soft_power  thought-provoking  U.S.-China_relations 
november 2018 by jerryking
Emerging markets offer clue for investors in 2017
December 31/January 1 2017 | Financial Times | by Gillian Tett.

Now (people = politicians = capriciousness/alternatively, unpredictable waves of populism) are shaping events, not established party platforms or policy programmes....the pricing of political uncertainty has moved from being an emerging market phenomenon to an emerged market issue....Is there any way for investors to adapt to this new world? ....(1) Start by abandoning the idea that asset values can be predicted by using neat economic models alone. ...investors urgently need to think about the difference between "risk" (i.e. events that can be predicted with a certain probability) and "uncertainty" (i.e. unknown future shocks). Until now, investors in developed markets have tended to focus primarily on risks and assume that these can be priced (and hedged against). But 2017 is likely to produce uncertainty. That cannot be easily priced or hedge--and investors should recognize this. (2) Investor should also embrace "optionality": the only way to prepare for a world of uncertainty is to stay as flexible and diversified as possible. Now is not the time for investors to put all their eggs in one basket, or bet on just one asset class. Nor is it time for businesses to be locked into rigid business plans: political and geopolitical upheaval could strike almost anywhere. (3) If 2017 does deliver more risk and uncertainty, expect financial markets to be "skittish" about "news" of all types, and not just economic....Bad news for those who despise market volatility (expectation: we're in for volatility like we've never seen before)....Uncertainty can deliver huge opportunity alongside risks..."good" surprises....Surviving 2017 in the developed economies requires that investors use tools beyond those found in the realm of economics: psychology, sociology and political science. Also, talk to successful emerging market investors to find out how they practice their craft.
concentration_risk  Gillian_Tett  emerging_markets  political_risk  unpredictability  Brexit  investors  Donald_Trump  uncertainty  risks  optionality  geopolitics  financial_markets  politicians  volatility  tools  economics  psychology  sociology  political_science  FT  institutions  rule_of_law  Gary_Cohn  populism  indicators  human_factor  assets  asset_values  asset_classes  diversification  dislocations  bad_news 
january 2017 by jerryking
Britain resigns as a world power
May 21, 2015 |The Washington Post | Fareed Zakaria
"I was struck by just how parochial it has become. After an extraordinary 300-year run, Britain has essentially resigned as a global power.

Over the next few years, Britain’s army will shrink to about 80,000."... Why does this matter? Because on almost all global issues, Britain has a voice that is intelligent, engaged and forward-looking. It wants to strengthen and uphold today’s international system — one based on the free flow of ideas, goods and services around the world, one that promotes individual rights and the rule of law.

This is not an accident. Britain essentially created the world we live in. In his excellent book “God and Gold,” Walter Russell Mead points out that in the 16th century many countries were poised to advance economically and politically — Northern Italy’s city-states, the Hanseatic League, the Low Countries, France, Spain. But Britain managed to edge out the others, becoming the first great industrial economy and the modern world’s first superpower. It colonized and shaped countries and cultures from Australia to India to Africa to the Western Hemisphere, including of course, its settlements in North America. Had Spain or Germany become the world’s leading power, things would look very different today.
geopolitics  E.U.  foreign_policy  internationalism  international_relations  middle-powers  parochialism  Fareed_Zakaria  Walter_Russell_Mead  books  United_Kingdom  London  cutbacks  BBC  cost-cutting  cosmopolitan  David_Cameron  leadership  globalization  retreats  superpowers  international_system  forward_looking  rule_of_law  drawdowns  industrial_economy  punch-above-its-weight 
may 2015 by jerryking
Strong intellectual property rights are key to prosperity - The Globe and Mail
BRIAN LEE CROWLEY
Strong intellectual property rights are key to prosperity
SUBSCRIBERS ONLY
Special to The Globe and Mail
Published Tuesday, Feb. 10 2015,

The stability of property and its transference by consent were thus rightly deemed by the great Scottish philosopher David Hume as two of the three rules that underpinned truly civilized societies (the third was the keeping of promises). Strong, reliable and consistent property rights unlock prosperity because they reduce conflict, promote stewardship and reward investment..... A strong IP regime therefore unlocks creativity, surely one of the keys to prosperity in a society increasingly dependent on intangible services for its wealth creation. Ultimately, all wealth is created by human knowledge, and increasingly the wealth of societies such as Canada takes the form of the fruits of our fertile minds, in software, design, film, fashion, engineering, disease control and more.
capitalism  intellectual_property  rule_of_law  Congo  Zaire  property_rights  abuses  impunity  intangibles  patents  wealth_creation  think_tanks  counterfeits  creativity  digital_economy  protocols  David_Hume  knowledge_economy  prosperity 
february 2015 by jerryking
Canada’s real wealth lies in its institutional integrity, not its resources - The Globe and Mail
BRIAN LEE CROWLEY
Canada’s real wealth lies in its institutional integrity, not its resources Add to ...
SUBSCRIBERS ONLY
Special to The Globe and Mail
Published Thursday, Apr. 17 2014

Canada’s wealth, and the reason why the world beats a path to our resources, lies not in the resources themselves. What makes that endowment almost uniquely valuable in the world is that it exists within another vastly more important endowment of rules, institutions and behaviours.

My list of those institutions and behaviours include the rule of law; independent judges and reasonably speedy and reliable resolution of disputes; the enforcement of contract; the absence of corruption among government officials and the police; respect of private property; a moderate, predictable and stable taxation and regulatory burden; a stable currency that keeps its value; responsible public finances; freedom to trade both domestically and internationally; a well-developed work ethic; and a refusal to resort to violence to resolve political disagreements. That is the greatest endowment that we have.

What happens when you nest a rich natural resource endowment inside this endowment of rules, institutions and behaviours? Companies can invest billions of dollars to unlock opportunities, such as the oil sands, reasonably secure in the knowledge that they know the fiscal, regulatory and contractual conditions they will face over a period of years that are sufficient to recoup their investment and make some money.
natural_resources  institution-building  institutions  Canada  independent_judiciary  integrity  political_infrastructure  predictability  property_rights  civics  rule_of_law  institutional_integrity  work_ethic  oil_sands  judiciary  judges 
april 2014 by jerryking
The Launching Pad - NYTimes.com
July 21, 2012 | NYT | By THOMAS L. FRIEDMAN.

Obama should aspire to make America the launching pad where everyone everywhere should want to come to launch their own moon shot, their own start-up, their own social movement. We can’t stimulate or tax-cut our way to growth. We have to invent our way there. The majority of new jobs every year are created by start-ups. The days when Ford or G.E. came to town with 10,000 jobs are over. Their factories are much more automated today, and their products are made in global supply chains. Instead, we need 2,000 people in every town each starting something that employs five people.

We need everyone starting something! Therefore, we should aspire to be the world’s best launching pad because our work force is so productive; our markets the freest and most trusted; our infrastructure and Internet bandwidth the most advanced; our openness to foreign talent second to none; our funding for basic research the most generous; our rule of law, patent protection and investment-friendly tax code the envy of the world; our education system unrivaled; our currency and interest rates the most stable; our environment the most pristine; our health care system the most efficient; and our energy supplies the most secure, clean and cost-effective.

No, we are not all those things today — but building America into this launching pad for more start-ups is precisely what an Obama second term should be about, so more Americans can thrive in a world we invented. If we can make America the best place to dream something, design something, start something, collaborate with others on something and manufacture something — in an age in which every link in that chain can now be done in so many more places — our workers and innovators will do just fine.
Tom_Friedman  Obama  Campaign_2012  start_ups  entrepreneurship  Cambrian_explosion  product_launches  rule_of_law  interest_rates  institutional_integrity  currencies  moonshots  tax_codes 
july 2012 by jerryking
Some investors finding China full of fool's gold
24 June 2005 |The Globe & Mail pg 10 | Geoffrey York.

"Despite all the evidence that only the tiniest minority strikes it rich in the Chinese domestic market, there is never any shortage of corporate gamblers," Joe Studwell (editor-in-chief of the China Economic Quarterly) writes in his book The China Dream , which tackles the age-old myth that China's vast population is a paradise for investors.

"For 700 years, ever since outsiders first started writing about the place, the Western world has believed that there are untold riches to be garnered in China," he says. "No nation in history has ever been promoted as a surer bet for investment returns. Yet history also teaches that time and again China has failed to fulfill the promise that foreigners ascribe to her."

John Gruetzner, a Canadian business consultant in Beijing, believes that investors can still make money in China, but they need intelligent research and planning.

"A portion of Canadian investors think you can fly in and pick some cherries and leave," he says. "That might have been okay in the 1980s and early 1990s, but now you need a high level of representation, just as you would in Buffalo or Ottawa or Paris."

The China dream is an alluring one. China today is attracting more foreign investment than any other country in the world. A record $61-billion was invested in China by foreign firms last year, and a staggering total of $570-billion has been invested since 1980. Of the world's top 500 multinational corporations, more than 400 have invested in China. Everyone seems to believe you have to be in China.

Yet the actual level of profits in China is surprisingly small. A survey last year by the China Economic Quarterly found that the affiliates of U.S. companies earned only $8.2-billion in profits in China in 2003. By comparison, they earned $7.1-billion in profits in Australia and $14.3-billion in Mexico -- two countries with far smaller populations and much less hype than China.

Joe Studwell, editor-in-chief of the China Economic Quarterly, says the profits in China have been concentrated in a small handful of foreign companies, including fast-food chains (which face no competition from state interests) and telecommunications firms (which he says were the recipients of "lucky breaks" by gaining entry to heavily regulated industries).
Geoffrey_York  China  ProQuest  risks  investing  dairy  corruption  piracy  rule_of_law  myths 
october 2011 by jerryking
The China Syndrome
JULY 16, 2007 | WSJ | By JEREMY HAFT.
On average, it takes China 17 separate parties to produce a product that would take us three. Unlike Japan in the 1980s, little companies drive China's economic growth, not big ones. China's industries are composed of hundreds of thousands of tiny factories and farms -- plus traders, brokers, haulers and agents, all of whom take control of the goods and materials but add little value to the product. With every additional player in the chain, the cost, risk and time grow. Effective quality control in this environment is difficult.So is effective cost control. Despite cheap labor, making goods in China is often more expensive than in the U.S. Far from being a bottomless ATM of cheap consumer goods, China is a risky, costly and time-consuming place to do business.Yet polls show a majority of Americans believe China has mastered basic manufacturing -- and it's now barreling into our high-tech backyard. That's false. As the product recalls demonstrate, China can barely make low-value goods reliably, much less higher-value ones……To compete head-to-head with the American economy, China will have to revolutionize the very way its industries are organized. It must shake out the thousands of low-value middlemen and integrate the tiny factories into larger, more competitive companies. It must train a workforce in modern technology and business practices. And, it must instill transparency and a uniform rule of law. Such an effort could span generations…….the next century will not be led by the country that can make the cheapest copy of a spark plug. It will be led by innovators and entrepreneurs, America's unrivaled assets. Innovation -- not imitation -- will create jobs and maintain America's economic primacy in the century ahead.
China  Chinese  product_recalls  America  transparency  manufacturers  innovation  competitiveness_of_nations  low_value  middlemen  rule_of_law  entrepreneurship 
october 2011 by jerryking
African Farms Attract Private-Sector Funds - WSJ.com
OCTOBER 29, 2010 | Wall Street Journal | By CAROLINE HENSHAW.
Mounting concern over security of food supplies is spurring a wave of
private-sector investment in Africa that many hope will put it at the
center of a green revolution...hopes for Africa's agriculture sector
have been dashed before. Weak rule of law, political instability and
prohibitive trade policies have teamed up to keep productivity low and
chase away investment. Today, yields in sub-Saharan Africa are about a
1/3 of the world avg. at 1 ton/ha, highlighting the potential
challenges—and opportunities—for investors...Diversified across crops,
biofuels, livestock, game farming and timber, the fund aims to profit by
increasing yields through using modern farming techniques, investing in
technology—only 2% of African farmland has any irrigation system in
place—and generating economies of scale by aggregating smaller farms.
agriculture  farmland  Africa  private_equity  Green_Revolution  farming  economies_of_scale  consolidation  political_instability  productivity  rule_of_law  sub-Saharan_Africa 
october 2010 by jerryking
What to do if Canada wins a seat at the Security Council table -
Sep. 25, 2010 | The Globe & Mail | Paul
Heinbecker.....First and foremost, we need to take ourselves seriously
again, to pursue an active foreign policy informed by facts and
compassion, rather than by ideology and partisan calculation. To get
back in the game at the UN, we should tear a page from the British
playbook, and make ourselves indispensable, or at least so valuable that
others seek our help. .....Fifth, at the same time, we should continue
to oppose the creation of new permanent seats, with or without
accompanying vetoes. Democratic accountability requires that
seat-holders face their electorates from time to time. Further, standing
for election forces candidates to take an interest in the concerns of
their electors.
Canada  UN  goals  indispensable  rule_of_law  playbooks 
september 2010 by jerryking
Why Is the U.S. Rehearsing for a Chinese Invasion of Japan?
Sep 23 2010 | The Atlantic | Max Fisher. China's increasingly
aggressive foreign policy and the volatility of its relationship with
Japan and its East Asia neighbors concerns the U.S. Someday in the
future, our influence abroad, and in East Asia especially, will wane.
The Obama admin. wants to guide East Asian politics in a direction
beneficial to long term U.S. interests which are 4-fold: establish a
mechanism for peaceful conflict resolution, so that war is less likely;
build precedent for the rule of international law, so that China can't
simply bully its neighbors; keep the U.S. involved in East Asian
politics so we aren't shut out; and prevent China from dominating the
South China Sea. The oil-rich sea lane has become a strategically
crucial link from East Asia to the Indian subcontinent, the Middle East,
Africa, and beyond & whoever controls it will control the ability
of navies--whether Chinese, U.S., Indian, or NATO--to project force
across the Eastern & Western hemispheres.
East_Asia  China  rule_of_law  aggressive  conflict_resolution  China_rising  Japan  U.S._Navy  maritime  South_China_Sea  contingency_planning  U.S.foreign_policy 
september 2010 by jerryking
Who Creates the Wealth in Society? - NYTimes.com
May 21, 2010 | New York Times | By UWE E. REINHARDT. From the
comments "Wealth creation requires a set of legal principles and a legal
framework that protect individuals and their property rights. The "who"
is this respect is well-functioning, independent and non-courrupt
judicial system that is able to enforce such rights. This is where
government plays its most significant and valid role; however, in terms
of the size of government in the economy it is hardly
measurable."..."Here, I think he has overlooked the most simple and
fundamental truth about the creation of individual or societal wealth:

Real wealth is created by individuals and societies who are willing to
postpone immediate gratification for longer-term benefit. If everything
produced is immediately consumed, no net wealth is created. If, instead,
more is produced than consumed, not only is wealth created, but so is
the capital needed for future wealth appreciation."
value_creation  wealth_creation  government  delayed_gratification  rule_of_law  justice_system  infrastructure  legal_system  property_rights  institutional_integrity  long-term  instant_gratification  capital_formation  capital_accumulation  indepedent_judiciary 
september 2010 by jerryking
A Marshall Plan for Haiti? Think again
Feb. 19, 2010 | The Globe & Mail | by David Carment and
Yiagadeesen Samy. If the Marshall Plan caused Europe to grow, it was
because Europe had a number of favourable pre-conditions that are
largely absent in Haiti: high levels of human capital, a long history of
democratic institutions and rule of law, private enterprise, and
trading history....To address problems of absorptive capacity, Canada
and its donor partners will need a strategy that clearly lays out the
sequencing of building political authority, legitimate governance and
sound economic capacity.

An effective strategic plan begins by specifying the end results that
are expected from those investments, the risks in achieving those
results, and indicators that track a reduction in those risks over time.
In short, a road map is only useful if you know your final destination.
Haiti  economic_development  democratic_institutions  relief_recovery_reconstruction  absorptive_capacity  strategic_planning  Marshall_Plan  roadmaps  human_capital  rule_of_law 
february 2010 by jerryking
The Protocol Society
Dec. 22, 2009 | NYT | By DAVID BROOKS. A protocol economy has
very different properties than a physical stuff economy. The success
of an economy depends on its ability to invent and embrace new
protocols, its' “adaptive efficiency,” -- how quickly a society can be
infected by new ideas. Protocols are intangible, so the traits needed to
invent and absorb them are intangible, too. First, a nation has to have
a good operating system: laws, regulations and property rights. Second,
a nation has to have a good economic culture: attitudes toward
uncertainty, the willingness to exert leadership, the willingness to
follow orders. A strong economy needs daring consumers (China lacks
this) and young researchers with money to play with (N.I.H. grants used
to go to 35-year-olds but now they go to 50-year-olds). See “From
Poverty to Prosperity,” by Arnold Kling and Nick Schulz and Richard
Ogle’s 2007 book, “Smart World,” When the economy is about ideas,
economics comes to resemble psychology.
David_Brooks  innovation  books  culture  adaptability  ideaviruses  risk-taking  R&D  N.I.H.  property_rights  regulations  rule_of_law  institutional_integrity  services  digital_economy  rules-based  intellectual_property  demand-driven  psychology  customer-driven  intangibles  behavioural_economics  protocols  poverty  prosperity 
december 2009 by jerryking
Religion of Peace - WSJ.com
* JUNE 23, 2009

Religion of Peace
In Iran, a theological state is challenged on theological grounds.

*
By BRET STEPHENS
Iran  Bret_Stephens  politics  reform  rule_of_law 
june 2009 by jerryking
The Globe and Mail: In hard times, our justice system gives us a competitive edge
Monday, April 6, 2009 | The Globe & Mai Page A13 | By
WARREN WINKLER

If a customer doesn't pay, a supplier fails to deliver, a competitor
misappropriates a patent or a business partner backs out of an
exclusivity agreement, you need to know, and the wrongdoer needs to
know, that you can go to court to get a remedy. This is known as the
"rule of law." While only a fraction of transactions wind up in
litigation, an effective court system must be there - just in case.
Canadian_justice_system  infrastructure  legal_system  rule_of_law  competitive_advantage  Canada  Canadian  institutions  institutional_integrity  hard_times 
april 2009 by jerryking
Hamas and democracy
Jul 9, 2007 | The Globe and Mail. Toronto, Ont.: pg. A.12| by
James A. Duthie.

Democracy is much more that winning more votes than the other party, it
also includes the concepts of "loyal opposition" the freedom to
criticize and to suggest alternative policies, and the rule of law.
letters_to_the_editor  Hamas  democracy  howto  rule_of_law  free_speech  loyal_opposition 
april 2009 by jerryking

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