jerryking + economic_stagnation   18

Did Burnham err in nationalising sugar and rice? –
Sep 07, 2019 |Kaieteur News | by Peeping Tom.

Did Forbes Burnham err when he nationalised the commanding heights of the economy and removed foreign involvement from the local financial sector?.....If Forbes Burnham erred, it means that the socialist experiment pursued by the PNC was ill-conceived. The fundamental basis of the socialist experiment was both national ownership and control of the main pillars of the Guyanese economy, namely sugar and bauxite. If it was an error to nationalise, then the socialist experiment was a colossal mistake........In making a decision as to whether Guyana should have nationalised the commanding heights of the economy, Forbes Burnham must have considered the ability of locals to manage the industries. Did Guyana at the time have the capacity to manage the industries? Was it a blunder by Forbes Burnham to have concluded that we did when we did not? Forbes Burnham was never in doubt as to the ability of Guyanese. ......Ownership of the commanding sectors of the economy had to be complemented by the Guyanese managing these enterprises. Burnham believed this and died believing this.
He cannot ever be described as a visionary if he was wrong on this score, because this was the main plank of his economic policies and his political beliefs.......If today, however, the PNCR wishes to concede that Burnham erred when he nationalised the commanding heights of the economy, it should then ask itself whether in a globalised world, where the managerial demands are greater, Guyanese can effectively manage their own affairs, more so considering oil and gas will be a major contributor to economic growth over the next 40 years.
It is posited that if Burnham erred by overestimating the local capacity to manage the bauxite and sugar industries, then is it safe to say that Guyanese will be unable to cope with an oil economy.
economic_development  economic_stagnation  Guyana  Guyanese  history  ineptitude  LFSB  nationalizations  oil_industry  PNC 
september 2019 by jerryking
Jeffrey Simpson: Slow growth now, no growth later - The Globe and Mail
JEFFREY SIMPSON
Slow growth now, no growth later
SUBSCRIBERS ONLY
The Globe and Mail
Published Wednesday, Jan. 13,2016

The population is aging. Commodity prices are low. Oil and natural gas prices are hitting rock-bottom. The Canadian dollar has plummeted. Most governments are in deficit, or heading into deficit (read Ottawa). Innovation and the commercialization of research lag that of other countries. Productivity, the country’s long-term bugbear, remains sluggish....all the green traffic signals have turned to yellow or red. Yet this slow-growth economy, which might persist for a long time, is wrapped in a political culture that seems to favour slow or no growth, or seems to think that government infrastructure programs, useful in themselves, will solve the long-run problems.....Everywhere, projects are blocked or delayed, because environmentalists, aboriginal people, non-governmental organizations or even provincial governments oppose them....Many of these blocked or delayed projects with large-scale economic spinoffs are natural resource projects, which the federal government says might be saved with more “robust” oversight. The government is kidding itself in this belief, since the opponents don’t care what the regulatory process is. They oppose development pure, simple and always.

Far beyond natural resource constipation, the contradiction arises between slow growth and the huge desire of citizens for more government services, without higher taxes. Of special concern is Canada’s persistent low productivity, to which no easy answer exists, except that a slow-growth mentality doesn’t help.

...Don Drummond, working with Evan Capeluck, recently explained the challenge in a paper for the Centre for the Study of Living Standards, which looked at productivity trends in all provinces. Projecting these trends forward, they said most provinces and territories will not be able to balance revenue growth with new spending demands (especially for health care) without higher taxes or spending cuts.

Put another way, unless long-term growth can be improved – a trend that will require productivity improvements – Canada is heading for a poorer future with fewer programs and/or higher taxes.
growth  Jeffrey_Simpson  economic_downturn  anti-development  natural_resources  economic_stagnation  megaprojects  productivity  Don_Drummond  slow_growth  low_growth  weak_dollar  signals 
january 2016 by jerryking
My country is what it is because…
JULY 13, 2014 | BY KNEWS | Adam Harris.

Ever since a friend loaned me the book ‘From Third World to First—The Singapore Story: 1965-2000’ I have been looking at my country with a range of emotions. I have felt anger, pity, sorrow, disappointment and shame….Last week, I read a news report prepared by one of my reporters. Using information supplied by the Indian Arrival Committee (IAC) – who culled statistics from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) database and some other international sources – it was concluded that Guyana is 254 years behind Singapore….The economic policies of that Asian giant boggled my mind. For one, its leader bought foreign talent when the country had none, but there was a caveat. For every two foreigners there needed to be one Singaporean. There was no attempt to get the foreigner to pay a bribe….The strange thing is that we have examples to follow; instead we have opted to do our own thing. The result is stagnation and a people who merely want to leave the country by any means possible. In this day and age we have skilled Guyanese running to other countries to peddle their ability.
Singapore  Guyana  Guyanese  Lee_Kuan_Yew  books  city-states  disappointment  economic_development  economic_stagnation 
july 2015 by jerryking
In the age of disruptive innovation, adaptability is what matters most - The Globe and Mail
May. 13 2015 | The Globe and Mail |by EAMONN PERCY.

William Gibson, who coined the term Cyberspace, “The future is here, it’s just not evenly distributed yet.”

It is not the innovation itself that matters, but its implications during this transition. For the individual, the key will be how to take advantage of these changes, while protecting one’s family, business, career, investments and way of life.....In 2013, a study authored by Erik Brynjolfsson and Andrew McFee at the MIT Sloan School of Management argued that advances in technology are largely behind the sluggish job growth and flattening median incomes over the last 10 to 15 years. They believe that the recent rapid advances in technology are destroying jobs more quickly than they are being created, contributing to the recent stagnation in income and the growth of inequality in the U.S. ... However, around the year 2000, this correlation diverged, with productivity continuing to rise but employment levels stagnating. They call the gap between increasing productivity and employment ‘the Great Decoupling,’ and the authors believe technology is behind it....the best way to both survive and then thrive in this coming transition is simple; embrace it as an Age of Adaptability. There is nothing an individual can do to stop these massive global trends in technology, economics, and demographics, other than adapt. Even reacting to the trends is insufficient, since their scale and velocity are will leave you scrambling to catch up, not mind getting ahead. The only solution is to adapt by becoming a lifelong learner, failing fast if necessary, and learning to get ahead of the changes.

This ability to adapt starts with a mindset that the status quo is not a safe haven, but the place of greatest risk. It means accepting complete responsibility for your destiny, rather than subordinating your well-being to other groups or people. It requires you to take 100 per cent control of your circumstances, particularly if you are responsible for a family, or other people in the form of a business. It entails moving to a state of absolute clarity and awareness of the coming onslaught of change, and then taking a personal leadership role in making incremental, but permanent, changes to your life now.
mindsets  information_overload  disruption  the_Great_Decoupling  Erik_Brynjolfsson  MIT  Andrew_McFee  economic_stagnation  adaptability  innovation  William_Gibson 
may 2015 by jerryking
Tyler Cowen on inequality, Canada, and the state of global superpowers
Eva Salinas | May 1, 2015.

Tyler Cowen is an economist, academic and writer. His popular blog, Marginal Revolution, co-written with Alex Tabarrok, a colleague at George Mason University, turned Cowen into “an economics celebrity,” in the words of one LA Times writer. More recently, Cowen and Tabarrok ventured into the world of online education with their creation of Marginal Revolution University in 2012.
The author of ‘Average is Over: Powering America Beyond the Age of the Great Stagnation’ was in Toronto earlier this year as the keynote speaker at the University of Toronto’s conference on Inequality.
Tyler_Cowen  economists  income_inequality  Canada  innovation  Silicon_Valley  averages  digital_economy  knowledge_economy  economic_stagnation  clusters  polymaths  the_Great_Decoupling 
may 2015 by jerryking
Economic stagnation is here to stay - The Globe and Mail
LAWRENCE MARTIN
Special to The Globe and Mail
Published Tuesday, Apr. 14 2015

The bleak economic predicament hasn’t received much attention. Seems we’re living under an illusion that we’re doing reasonably well, the reason being that until the recent oil price plunge the Conservatives pushed out a lot of feel-good messaging about Canada faring better in the wake of the global financial crisis than other major economies. But doing better than some rivals doesn’t necessarily mean you’re doing well yourself.

Over and above the energy price fall, experts cite a range of causes for the inertia. A major one is productivity. “On that, we’re doing terribly relative to our own historic rate,” said economist Don Drummond, “and we’re doing terrible relative to the rate of almost every developed country.”

Our business class, he added, is neither aggressive nor entrepreneurial, consumer demand is inhibited by high household debt and we have an aging labour force that is only going to grow at about 1 per cent a year. The small increase will come from immigrants, who make lower wages.

“I don’t look for growth to be above 2 per cent on an average basis, I’d say, for the next 10 years,” Mr. Drummond said.
economics  Lawrence_Martin  economic_stagnation  slow_growth  Don_Drummond  productivity  economists  Christopher_Ragan  the_Great_Decoupling 
april 2015 by jerryking
Singapore reminds us of Burnham and the PNC’s colossal failure
AUGUST 23, 2014 | : Kaieteur News| M. Maxwell.

Guyana and Singapore started at fairly similar points of economic development in the early sixties. Guyana had the advantage of far greater resources and a smaller population base. Today, Singapore is a developed nation and economic powerhouse while Guyana paddles around in the gutter economically.
Singapore  Guyana  PNC  economic_development  economic_stagnation  Lee_Kuan_Yew  LFSB 
march 2015 by jerryking
Lawrence H. Summers: ‘There are many ways of burdening our future’ - The Globe and Mail
RUDYARD GRIFFITHS
Special to The Globe and Mail
Published Friday, Mar. 20 2015

Lawrence Summers: confidence is the cheapest form of stimulus.

If a young person asked you, ‘How do I thrive in a low-growth economy?’ what would your advice be?

It’s never been more important to be comfortable with technology, to be well-educated, to not just know things, but know how to learn, and develop a set of distinctive skills that employers can value. For people who are able to do those things, the combination of technology and global markets will make this a moment of immense opportunity........There are many ways of burdening the future. One is to borrow money – though, given how low interest rates are, those burdens aren't that great. Another is to defer maintenance. Those costs accumulate at a much greater rate, and that's why I think infrastructure investment is so very important. Another way to burden future generations is to scrimp on education. Another way is to fail to invest in basic scientific research. Another way is to saddle them with huge pension liabilities for those who are working, serving the public today. We are doing all those things.
Rudyard_Griffiths  America_in_Decline?  growth  economy  technology  automation  deferred_maintenance  downward_mobility  infrastructure  skills  advice  new_graduates  economic_stagnation  the_Great_Decoupling  low_growth  slow_growth  confidence  economic_stimulus  leaps_of_faith  Larry_Summers 
march 2015 by jerryking
Canadian business, heal thyself
Oct. 18 2013 | The Globe and Mail |Jeffrey Simpson.

, the lessons BlackBerry/RIM once followed still seem urgent for the Canadian economy: research, innovation, productivity improvements, global perspective beyond the United States.

On Oct. 1, the Council of Canadian Academies summarized seven years of studies into Canada’s capacities in science, technology, innovation and productivity, releasing a report, Paradox Lost (the title must have come from the fertile brain of the brilliant Peter Nicholson, a member of the advisory group), that laid it on the line.

The government has been doing its part, especially in funding university research, the council concluded – although more money would always be welcome. What’s lacking is an “aggressively innovative business sector.”...Canadian companies rely excessively on U.S. innovation. They are content either to play an upstream role (extracting resources) or as subsidiaries of foreign companies. Too many Canadian businesses settle, the council reported, for a “profitable low-innovation equilibrium” (a fancy way of saying second-best) that conditions Canadian business’s behaviour and ambitions.....This problem of lagging innovation and inadequate R&D coincides with four major trends that will slow Canadian growth. First, the United States is in relative decline. Second, the growing global appetite for commodities means environmental challenges and volatile price swings. Third, scientific revolutions in fields such as genomics and nanotechnology will shape business and social life, but Canadian firms are behind the curve in both areas. Fourth, our aging population will be a drag on economic growth (and government revenues).
Jeffrey_Simpson  R&D  innovation  economic_stagnation  resource_extraction  America_in_Decline?  commodities  volatility  aging  complacency  Peter_Nicholson  aggressive  beyondtheU.S.  genomics  nanotechnology  productivity  paradoxes  laggards 
october 2013 by jerryking
A tech-powered end to the middle class
Feb. 21 2013 | The Globe and Mail | CHRYSTIA FREELAND.
One way to divide people is into those who think this time is different and those who believe there is never anything new under the sun. That split can be a matter of temperament, of politics or even of religion. But today it is relevant for another, more urgent reason: It describes how people think about the most critical economic problem in the industrialized world – the dearth of well-paying middle-class jobs....
"thanks to the tech revolution, the traditional link between rising productivity and a rising standard of living (i.e. wages) for the middle class has been broken. Gore worries that severed link may be causing the economic slowdown in the developed economies: A weakened middle class lacks the spending power to drive growth.

One of the smartest academics studying this phenomenon is Erik Brynjolfsson, a management professor at Massachusetts Institute of Technology. The co-author of a new book, Race Against the Machine, believes the tech revolution is having a powerful and unprecedented impact. “Most of the debate … is missing the tectonic changes in the way the economy works, which are driven by technology,” he said recently. “This is the big story of our time, and it is going to accelerate over the next 10 years.”

Like Mr. Gore, Mr. Brynjolfsson thinks the canary in the coal mine is the decoupling of gains in productivity and in wages. “Productivity since 2000 has grown faster than in the 1970s, ’80s or ’90s,” he said. “But starting in the late 1990s, we’ve had this decoupling of wages from productivity.” He sees this as a historic watershed, noting that there is “no economic law” that productivity and jobs go together.

That change has tremendous implications. Productivity and innovation, the focus of policy makers and business leaders, no longer guarantee widely shared prosperity. “Digital technologies are different in that they allow people with skills to replicate their talents to serve billions,” Mr. Brynjolfsson noted. “There is really a drastic winner-take-all effect because every industry is becoming like the software industry.”

The danger isn’t structural unemployment (as many feared during the depths of the financial crisis). The problem is what kind of jobs, at what kind of salaries, the tech-powered economy of the future will generate.
Chrystia_Freeland  Albert_Gore  books  Erik_Brynjolfsson  MIT  downward_mobility  seismic_shifts  middle_class  winner-take-all  Al_Gore  Kleiner_Perkins  Luddites  productivity  innovation  hollowing_out  the_Great_Decoupling  economic_stagnation  '90s  This_Time_is_Different 
february 2013 by jerryking
The world according to Tyler Cowen - The Globe and Mail
MICHAEL POSNER

The Globe and Mail

Published Monday, Sep. 10 2012

50-year-old Tyler Cowen is a formidable presence on the American economic landscape. Chairman of Economics at George Mason University in Virginia, he is a prolific writer and editor and blogger; his Marginal Revolution – co-written with his Canadian colleague Alex Tabarrok – is among the best read blogs in the field. His last book,The Great Stagnation, was a bestseller. His next, he told Globe and Mail reporter Michael Posner in an interview, will explore what the path out of the great stagnation will look like.
economists  economic_downturn  books  economic_stagnation  the_Great_Decoupling  Tyler_Cowen  prolificacy 
september 2012 by jerryking
Risky Business - WSJ.com
April 24, 2003 | WSJ |By STAN O'NEAL.

Historically, investors' trust in the markets has been well founded because enterprising people have been willing to take risks. Backed by venture capital, entrepreneurs create value, employment, wealth, and opportunities. Without risk, there would be no electricity, no personal computers, no vaccines. No GE, no IBM, no Pfizer.

Of course, in any system predicated on risk-taking, there are failures, sometimes spectacular failures. But for every failure to be viewed as fraudulent or even criminal bodes ill for our economic system. The message to CEOs, to entrepreneurs and to venture capitalists right now is that you cannot afford to be wrong.

In the aftermath of history's greatest market bubble, this backlash against risk is understandable. Excesses in the system were taken to incredible levels. And while our industry did not create the bubble, it also did not bathe itself in glory recognizing or resisting those excesses.

But if we attempt to eliminate risk -- to legislate, regulate, or litigate it out of existence -- the ultimate result will be economic stagnation, perhaps even economic failure. To teach investors that they should be insulated from these forces, that if they lose money in the market they're automatically entitled to be compensated for it does both them and the economy a disservice.

In my view, the great, historical contribution of American capitalism is its ability to create value. Even when the system works imperfectly, value is created. If our financial system is to retain this particular genius, we need to be willing to continue to innovate. If we fail to rebalance the forces of risk and reward, the greatest danger may be deflation. Not probable, but not impossible either.
capitalism  Merrill_Lynch  CEOs  risks  Stanley_O'Neal  economic_stagnation  financial_system  overregulation  imperfections  value_creation  risk-taking  moral_hazards  backlash  innovation  deflation 
june 2012 by jerryking
Average Is Over - NYTimes.com
By THOMAS L. FRIEDMAN
Published: January 24, 2012
the reason we have such stubbornly high unemployment and sagging middle-class incomes today is largely because of the big drop in demand because of the Great Recession, but it is also because of the quantum advances in both globalization and the information technology revolution, which are more rapidly than ever replacing labor with machines or foreign workers.

In the past, workers with average skills, doing an average job, could earn an average lifestyle. But, today, average is officially over. Being average just won’t earn you what it used to. It can’t when so many more employers have so much more access to so much more above average cheap foreign labor, cheap robotics, cheap software, cheap automation and cheap genius. Therefore, everyone needs to find their extra — their unique value contribution that makes them stand out in whatever is their field of employment. Average is over.
averages  Tom_Friedman  unemployment  middle_class  globalization  automation  value_propositions  economic_stagnation  Tyler_Cowen  the_Great_Decoupling  Pablo_Picasso  cheap_revolution 
january 2012 by jerryking
The Experience Economy - NYTimes.com
February 14, 2011| NYT| By DAVID BROOKS. Tyler Cowen’s e-book,
“The Great Stagnation,” has become the most debated nonfiction book so
far this year. Cowen’s core point is that up until sometime around 1974,
the American economy was able to experience awesome growth by
harvesting low-hanging fruit. There was cheap land to be exploited.
There was the tremendous increase in education levels during the postwar
world. There were technological revolutions occasioned by the spread of
electricity, plastics and the car. But that low-hanging fruit is
exhausted, Cowen continues, and since 1974, the United States has
experienced slower growth, slower increases in median income, slower job
creation, slower productivity gains, slower life-expectancy
improvements and slower rates of technological change.
David_Brooks  book_reviews  books  economic_stagnation  technological_change  downward_mobility  economists  economic_downturn  the_Great_Decoupling  slow_growth  '70s  experience  experience_economy 
february 2011 by jerryking

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