jerryking + discernment   25

We need to be better at predicting bad outcomes
September 2019 | Financial Times | by Tim Harford.

A question some of us ask all too often, and some of us not often enough: what if it all [jk: our plan] goes wrong?.....we don’t think about worst-case scenarios in the right way......
The first problem is that our sense of risk is pretty crude. The great psychologist Amos Tversky joked that most of us have three categories when thinking about probabilities: “gonna happen”, “not gonna happen” and “maybe”.....It would be helpful if our sense of risk was a little more refined; intuitively, it is hard to grasp the difference between a risk of one in a billion and that of one in a thousand. Yet, for a gambler — or someone in the closely related business of insurance — there is all the difference in the world.....research by Barbara Mellers, Philip Tetlock and Hal Arkes suggests that making a serious attempt to put probabilities on uncertain future events might help us in other ways: the process makes us more humble, more moderate and better able to discern shades of grey. Trying to forecast is about more than a successful prediction......we can become sidetracked by the question of whether the worst case is likely. Rather than asking “will this happen?”, we should ask “what would we do if it did?”

The phrase “worst-case scenario” probably leads us astray: anyone can dream up nightmare scenarios.....To help us think sensibly about these worst-case possibilities, Gary Klein, psychologist and author of Seeing What Others Don’t, has argued for conducting “pre-mortems” — or hypothetical postmortems. Before embarking on a project, imagine receiving a message from the future: the project failed, and spectacularly. Now ask yourself: why? Risks and snares will quickly suggest themselves — often risks that can be anticipated and prevented.......Contingency planning is not always easy......woes that would result both as the “base case” (the truth) and a “worst-case scenario” (the government sucking in its stomach while posing for a selfie).
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In our increasingly airbrushed world, it becomes ever more necessary to ask the unfashionable questions like ‘what could possibly go wrong?’ - and then plan for it...
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Humanity's survival may well rely on the ability of our imaginations to explore alternative futures in order to begin building the communities that can forestall or endure worst-case catastrophes.
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Amos_Tversky  anticipating  base_rates  beforemath  books  contingency_planning  discernment  failure  forecasting  foresight  frequency_and_severity  humility  nuanced  predictions  preparation  probabilities  risk-assessment  risks  Tim_Harford  uncertainty  worst-case 
4 weeks ago by jerryking
How do hedge funds learn new industries quickly? - Quora
Quickly' is very subjective and remember funds(hedge,mutual,pension,etc) do not need to know everything about a industry only to understand the drivers of what moves the stock. That is a massive difference between how a student approaches learning and a analyst, analysts aren't trying to know everything only what can make them money.

Exceptional People
They are used to covering certain sectors some may come from the sell side and covered maybe 15-30 stocks or the buy side and covered 40-60 stocks. Regardless of where they came from they are used to tracking and getting alot of information very efficiently. They are also willing to put in long hours and read/study anything that is needed. After a while(if they don't burn out) they become masters are managing huge information bandwidth.

Tools/Data
For accounting and raw data there are plenty of tools. Bloomberg is quite widely used and with a few commands/clicks you can have a excel sheet with all the data you can want about a companies financials.

Sell side
If you have a large enough fund and relationships on the sell side then they'll do all they can to get you up to speed very quickly. The sell side will have a team of analysts covering a industry/sector your intrested in and if your a good client then they'll spend time and teach you want you want to know.

Reduce noise/Very focused:
Great analysts are masters are reducing the amount of noise that comes there way. They filter emails and calls like crazy so there are less distractions. If your ideas don't make them money they will ignore you(regardless of how smart you are). If they are really good they won't even open your emails if you have not proven you add value to them.
hedge_funds  ideas  discernment  filtering  learning_curves  noise  signals  Quora  new_industries  sell_side 
november 2018 by jerryking
Bloomberg Businessweek
See the connections others don't make. Hear the buzz before it starts. Navigate the currents they don't follow. Know the plays ahead of the game. Know what matters and why (secrets, discernment).
quotes  connecting_the_dots  ahead_of_the_curve  sophisticated  discernment  secrets  what_really_matters  from notes
august 2017 by jerryking
Looking Death in the Face -
DEC. 26, 2016 | The New York Times | by John Kaag and Clancy Martin.

Shelley’s poem, “Ozymandias,”, tells us, nothing remains of this pharaoh's works or of him, despite his status as the king of kings. All that remains is sand.

The poem’s message is perennial: All of this will be over soon, faster than you think. Fame has a shadow — inevitable decline. The year 2016 has delivered a string of deaths that serve as bracing reminders of this inevitability: Prince, Nancy Reagan, David Bowie, Elie Wiesel, Bill Cunningham, Muhammad Ali, Gordie Howe, Merle Haggard, Patty Duke, John Glenn....The year’s end is a time to take account of kingdoms built, but also the sheer rapidity of their destruction. It is a chance to come to terms with the existential fragility that is overlooked in most of our waking hours and that must be faced even by the greatest among us....the scariest thing about death: coming to die only to discover, in Thoreau’s words, that we haven’t lived....Dying, of course, corresponds exactly with what we prefer to call living. This is what Samuel Beckett meant when he observed that we “give birth astride the grave.” It is an existential realization that may seem to be the province of the very sick or very old. The elderly get to watch the young and oblivious squander their days, time that they now recognize as incredibly precious....The trick to dying for something is picking the right something, day after week after precious year. And this is incredibly hard and decidedly not inevitable....
dying  howto  Egyptian_Empire  history  worthiness  discernment  overlooked  perennial  timeless  poems  decline  mybestlife  deaths 
december 2016 by jerryking
Being John Ibbitson
August 1, 2006 | Ryerson Review of Journalism | Barry Hertz.

What his columns lack in personal detail, he makes up for in research. He is one of the few columnists who actually reports rather than simply sitting back and spouting his opinions. He noticed a weakness of his colleagues – too much analysis, not enough research – and began to emulate his favourite drama critic, Nathan Cohen. “He offered a good recipe for analyzing public policy as he did for theatre, which was just asking three questions,” explains Ibbitson. “What are you doing? How are you doing it? And, is it a good idea in the first place?”
John_Ibbitson  questions  worthiness  public_policy  columnists  discernment  think_threes  5_W’s 
april 2016 by jerryking
How to manage your time like a president - The Globe and Mail
COLLEEN FRANCIS
Special to The Globe and Mail
Published Friday, May. 22 2015

time is a non-renewable resource.

“The Eisenhower Matrix” – is that all business problems can be grouped into one of four categories:

Urgent and important: a very short list of items where you must act immediately;
Urgent but less important: a short list of tasks where you would be better served to delegate right away;
Non urgent but important: a longer list of tasks that you must act on, but later;
Non urgent and unimportant: matters that don’t require your attention.

The key to managing your time in the Eisenhower Matrix is to be merciless and choosy about what deserves your time and focus right away. That needs to remain a very short list of tasks. If it isn’t, you need to reevaluate how you and your organization makes a distinction between urgent and non-urgent issues.

Just as important, know the value of your time and outsource anything that can be done for less than your time is worth.

Doing this, you avoid the trap of being too reactive or overwhelmed by a relentless inbox demanding decisions from you on issues both large and small.
attention  attention_spans  discernment  Dwight_Eisenhower  focus  overreaction  overwhelmed  priorities  relentlessness  self-discipline  time-management  urgency  worthiness  mercilessness 
june 2015 by jerryking
The Mental Virtues - NYTimes.com
AUG. 28, 2014| NYT | David Brooks.

Thinking well under a barrage of information may be a different sort of moral challenge than fighting well under a hail of bullets, but it’s a character challenge nonetheless. In their 2007 book, “Intellectual Virtues,” Robert C. Roberts of Baylor University and W. Jay Wood of Wheaton College list some of the cerebral virtues. We can all grade ourselves on how good we are at each of them.

First, there is love of learning.
Second, there is courage. Not just the willingness to hold unpopular views. But the subtler form, which is knowing how much risk to take in jumping to conclusions. Reckless thinkers take scraps of information and leaps to some faraway conspiracy theories. Perfectionists are silenced, except under ideal conditions, for fear of being wrong. Intellectual courage is self-regulation--knowing when to be daring and when to be cautious. And guarding against confirmation bias.

Third, there is firmness. Don’t be the person who surrenders his beliefs at the slightest whiff of opposition. On the other hand, you don’t want to hold dogmatically to a belief against all evidence. The median point between flaccidity and rigidity is the virtue of firmness.

Fourth, there is humility, which is not letting your own desire for status get in the way of accuracy. Fight against vanity and self-importance.

Fifth, there is autonomy. Don’t be a person who slavishly adopts whatever opinion your teacher or some author gives you. On the other hand, don’t reject all guidance from people who know what they are talking about. Autonomy is the median of knowing when to bow to authority and when not to, when to follow a role model and when not to, when to adhere to tradition and when not to.[In this case, autonomy sounds a lot like judgment]

Finally, there is generosity. This virtue starts with the willingness to share knowledge and give others credit. But it also means hearing others as they would like to be heard, looking for what each person has to teach and not looking to triumphantly pounce upon their errors.
David_Brooks  thinking  howto  cognitive_skills  biases  virtues  humility  intellectual_courage  courage  autonomy  resolve  generosity  praise  grace  firmness  confirmation_bias  self-regulation  recklessness  cerebral  perfection  independent_viewpoints  discernment  self-importance  pairs 
august 2014 by jerryking
Chef Michael Bonacini’s five top tips for success
COURTNEY SHEA
Published Sunday, Mar. 16 2014
Keep your eye on the oven

In terms of the mistakes I see from the contestants on Masterchef Canada, the most common thing is that a cook will lose focus. When you’re in the kitchen, this is the most important thing and it’s that much harder because of the competition and the cameras. It’s so easy to let your mind wander for a second and all of a sudden you’re heading off in three or four different directions. Focus is what will allow you to stick to a vision and hopefully deliver a good product. T
Pay to be picky [jk...be conservative, be discerning, be picky, be selective, say "no"]
Peter [Oliver] and I get a lot of offers to do restaurants – a new build, taking over an existing establishment, a hotel. The first question we ask ourselves is, does it fit the brand? The landlord, the building, the location – do all of these things align with who we are and where we want to go? Then there are the business aspects. What is the rent? What are the build-out costs? There are so many checkpoints that we go through. Eight times out of 10, it’s a pretty quick no. Being very discerning about the projects we get involved with has allowed us to maintain our reputation for so many years.
Lots in a name
Don’t be a rose-tinted restaurateur
Consistent is better than cool
chefs  restaurants  restauranteurs  ksfs  entrepreneur  tips  questions  brands  selectivity  checklists  reputation  consistency  focus  discernment  say_"no"  personal_branding 
march 2014 by jerryking
Great Hackers
(Charles Waud & WaudWare. Can Waudware develop on a different platform, enabling 3rd parties to develop for it? Would that make PICs more commercially appealing?)

There's no controversy about which idea is most controversial: the suggestion that variation in wealth might not be as big a problem as we think.

I didn't say in the book that variation in wealth was in itself a good thing. I said in some situations it might be a sign of good things. A throbbing headache is not a good thing, but it can be a sign of a good thing-- for example, that you're recovering consciousness after being hit on the head.

Variation in wealth can be a sign of variation in productivity. (In a society of one, they're identical.) And that is almost certainly a good thing: if your society has no variation in productivity, it's probably not because everyone is Thomas Edison. It's probably because you have no Thomas Edisons.

In a low-tech society you don't see much variation in productivity....In programming, as in many fields, the hard part isn't solving problems, but deciding what problems to solve. Imagination is hard to measure, but in practice it dominates the kind of productivity that's measured in lines of code.

Productivity varies in any field, but there are few in which it varies so much (as software development)..This is an area where managers can make a difference. Like a parent saying to a child, I bet you can't clean up your whole room in ten minutes, a good manager can sometimes redefine a problem as a more interesting one.
Paul_Graham  hackers  productivity  software_developers  software_development  coding  programming  income_distribution  income_inequality  WaudWare  imagination  variations  productivity_payoffs  Thomas_Edison  discernment  worthwhile_problems 
february 2014 by jerryking
More Reflection, Less Action
February 14, 2014 |NYT | By TONY SCHWARTZ.

Observation from President Obama, caught on an open mike during a stroll with Prime Minister David Cameron of Britain in 2008:

“The most important thing you need to do [in this job] is to have big chunks of time during the day when all you’re doing is thinking.”

Judgment is grounded in discernment, subtlety and nuance.... Good judgment grows out of reflection, and reflection requires the sort of quiet time that gets crowded out by the next demand.

Regular reflection also provides the space in which to decide what not to do. At the companies I visit, no topic comes up more frequently than prioritizing....Time to reflect is what makes it possible to prioritize.... a tools that ensures reflection and prioritization is an old-fashioned handwritten to-do list, with a twist. Download everything that’s on your mind – not just calls to make and emails to send, but also ideas you want to explore, conflicts you haven’t resolved, and longer-term projects you intend to pursue...If you can’t decide whether something is worth your time, I try to stop and answer two reflective questions – a task that ends up saving rather than costing time.

1. Could someone else do this just as well or better than I can? If so, I try to turn it over.

2. Is the time and energy I invest going to produce anything I’ll still consider worth having done a month from now?

We need less conventional wisdom and more genuine wisdom; less sheer output and more insights that add enduring value.
time-management  reflections  wisdom  work_life_balance  insights  priorities  lists  GTD  judgment  strategic_thinking  Obama  David_Cameron  thinking  timeouts  meditation  contemplation  discernment  subtlety  personal_energy  slack_time  monotasking  sustained_inquiry  Tony_Schwartz  nuanced 
february 2014 by jerryking
In Praise of Depth - NYTimes.com
January 17, 2014 | NYT | By TONY SCHWARTZ.
We don’t need more bits and bytes of information, or more frequent updates about each other’s modest daily accomplishments. What we need instead is more wisdom, insight, understanding and discernment — less quantity, higher quality; less breadth and more depth....The reality is that we each have limited working memories, meaning we can only retain a certain amount of new information in our minds at any given time. If we’re forever flooding the brain with new facts, other information necessarily gets crowded out before it’s been retained in our long-term memory. If you selectively reduce what you’re taking in, then you can hold on to more of what you really want to remember...Going deeper does mean forgoing immediate gratification more often, taking time to reflect and making more conscious choices. It also requires the capacity to focus in a more absorbed and sustained way, which takes practice and commitment in a world of infinite distractions.
deep_learning  discernment  distractions  focus  immediacy  information_overload  insights  instant_gratification  monotasking  reading  reflections  relevance  thinking_deliberatively  Tony_Schwartz  wisdom  work_life_balance 
january 2014 by jerryking
Bark with bite
January 30, 2012 | FT | By John Quelch.

Academics succeed if their names are linked to one important idea that outlives them. Professor Theodore Levitt’s name is linked to many. The first was a blockbuster. “Marketing myopia” was published by Harvard Business Review (HBR) in 1960, one year after Harvard Business School plucked Prof Levitt, the son of a German immigrant cobbler, from the University of North Dakota.

The article famously asked: “What business are you in?” It critiqued railroads for “letting their customers get away from them because they assumed themselves to be in the railroad business rather than the transportation business”. They were product-orientated rather than market-orientated....the importance of tangible evidence to reassure customers choosing among suppliers of intangible services (the impressive bank building, the authoritative logo)....I gave him a wide berth until it was time for feedback on my thesis proposal after three months of hard labour. The meeting lasted five minutes, barely long enough for Prof Levitt, whose mentoring style was more tough love than hand-holding, to dismiss me with: “Throw this out, start again and come back in a week with something important!” Fortunately, I did.

Prof Levitt’s advice was always to work on important problems that are important to important people in important companies. It spurred me to get out into the field, talk to business people, write case studies and understand the messy complexity of the world, rather than work behind my desk on mathematical models based on unrealistic assumptions.
advice  discernment  feedback  hand-holding  HBR  HBS  John_Quelch  marketing  market-orientated  messiness  myopic  primary_field_research  product-orientated  reminiscing  sophisticated  Theodore_Levitt  tough_love  worthiness  worthwhile_problems 
december 2013 by jerryking
A Report to The Wall Street Journal's World-Wide Readers - WSJ.com
What Won't Change

That's what will change. Let me tell you what won't: We won't use color for color's sake, or merely to entertain you. That's not the Journal, and it never will be. Instead, we'll use color to convey more information, particularly in graphs, charts and tables, and to help you navigate your way more quickly and easily to and through those parts of the paper that matter most to you.

We won't "dumb down" The Wall Street Journal. This publication isn't for everybody, and we don't intend for it to be. Instead, it's written, edited and published for a broad community of women and men in business and seriously interested in the world of business -- and now, also, the "business of life." It's intended to be sophisticated and thoughtful and thought-provoking, and unapologetic about all of that. It's often clever, sometimes playful, but never shallow or silly. In a world sometimes overwhelmed with trivialities, our readers don't need any more trivia, and we don't intend to provide it to them.
wsj  9/11  newspapers  critical_thinking  sophisticated  worthiness  discernment  trivia 
august 2012 by jerryking
Netflix vs. Naysayers - WSJ.com
March 27, 2007 | WSJ | By NICK WINGFIELD

CEO Hastings Keeps Growth Strong; Plans for Future After Death of DVDs. In the decade since Netflix Inc. NFLX +3.07% began renting DVDs online, CEO Reed Hastings has faced down a murderers' row of rivals.

Wal-Mart Stores Inc., WMT -0.59% Amazon.com Inc. AMZN +0.72% and Blockbuster Inc. have all piled into the market with services that mail DVDs to consumers who've ordered them over the Web.

...WSJ: You've started letting some of your subscribers watch movies from your Web site. How seriously are you pushing into Internet-delivery of movies?

Hastings: We're taking it pretty aggressively. We're investing about $40 million into it this year. We feel that that's the appropriate size investment, given the size of the market. If you overinvest in a market, of course, a lot of the money is wasted.

If you underinvest, then someone else can get ahead of you. We'll be up to 5,000 films by the end of the year, open to all of our subscribers....

WSJ: Blockbuster was once dismissive of Netflix, but now they're taking you very seriously. Did their initial attitude affect the way you view potential threats to Netflix?

Hastings: Absolutely. We have to recognize that now there are tens and maybe hundreds of start-ups who think that they're going to eat Netflix's lunch. The challenge for a management team is to figure out which are real threats and which aren't.... It's conventional to say, "only the paranoid survive" but that's not true. The paranoid die because the paranoid take all threats as serious and get very distracted.(jk....which threats are worthy of my attention?==> distinguish between illusory and legitimate threats and fears.)

...WSJ: What are some examples of how you were choosy in reacting to potential threats to Netflix?

Hastings: There are markets that aren't going to get very big, and then there are markets that are going to get big, but they're not directly in our path. In the first camp we have small companies like Movielink -- a well-run company but not an attractive model for consumers, sort of a $4-download to watch a movie. We correctly guessed when it launched four years ago that this was not a threat and didn't react to it.

The other case I brought up is markets that are going to be very large markets, but we're just not the natural leader. Advertising supported online video, whether that's at CBS.com or YouTube -- great market, kind of next door to us. But we don't do advertising-supported video, we do subscription, so it would be a huge competence expansion for us. And it's not a threat to movies.
Netflix  Reed_Hastings  CEOs  DVDs  downloads  streaming  subscriptions  threats  large_markets  discernment  paranoia  distractions  overextended 
june 2012 by jerryking
Deja Vu - WSJ.com
May 21, 2007 | WSJ | Cynthia Crossen

The toughest part of inventing isn't solving problems. It's figuring out which problems are worth the effort...If you made a list of the 2,100 inventions you thought were needed, you would also be painting a profile of yourself. "Invention is really a systematic form of criticism," Mr. Yates wrote, and people tend to criticize the things that annoy them in their daily lives. Mr. Yates, for example, seems to have found most commonplace devices excessively noisy....While Mr. Yates recorded most of his 2,100 inventions in no particular order, he did make a top-10 list that proves he wasn't a trivial thinker. His top-three needed inventions all concerned energy -- a way to transform energy into power with less waste, a more efficient way to store energy and better light bulbs.

Mr. Yates, a self-taught engineer, inventor and technical writer, tried to nudge other inventors in the right direction with his book, "2100 Needed Inventions." Published by Wilfred Funk Inc., Mr. Yates's book was a list of ways people could alleviate certain nuisances and defects of life and get rich for their trouble. "We often see clever and simple devices for sale which cause us to chastise ourselves with some such remark as, 'Why I could have thought of that years ago and made a lot of money with it!' Certainly you could have -- but you didn't."
inventors  inventions  criticism  problem_solving  critical_thinking  negative_space  worthiness  frictions  pain_points  discernment  unarticulated_desires  worthwhile_problems  personal_enrichment  systematic_approaches 
june 2012 by jerryking
The Rhino Principle
01.30.06 | Forbes.com | Paul Johnson
We can choose to lead quiet lives and get through them without achieving much. But if we want to do the big thing, if we hope to leave a record that will be admired and remembered, we must learn to distinguish between the peripheral and the essential. Then, having clearly established our central objective, we must charge at it again and again until the goal is achieved.

That is what the rhinoceros does. It may not be a model animal in most ways. But it does one thing very well. And that one thing we can learn: Charge!
historians  gtd  indispensable  worthiness  signals  noise  discernment  judgment  thinking_big 
june 2012 by jerryking
A First Draft of History? - WSJ.com
March 12, 2005 | WSJ | By BRET STEPHENS

The cliché is that journalism is the first draft of history. Yet a historian searching for clues about the origins of many of the great stories of recent decades--the collapse of the Soviet empire; the rise of Osama bin Laden; the declining American crime rate; the economic eclipse of Japan and Germany--would find most contemporary journalism useless. Perhaps a story here or there might, in retrospect, seem illuminating. But chances are it would have been nearly invisible at the time of publication: eight column inches, page A12.

The problem is not that journalists can't get their facts straight: They can and usually do. Nor is it that the facts are obscure: Often, the most essential facts are also the most obvious ones. The problem is that journalists have a difficult time distinguishing significant facts--facts with consequences--from insignificant ones. That, in turn, comes from not thinking very hard about just which stories are most worth telling....As for the media, it shouldn't be too difficult to do better. Look for the countervailing data. Broaden your list of sources. Beware of exoticizing your subject:
Bret_Stephens  journalism  journalists  critical_thinking  history  signals  noise  frictions  pain_points  worthiness  countervailing  storytelling  seminal_moments  wide-framing  discernment  origin_story  historians  consequential  clichés  worthwhile_problems 
may 2012 by jerryking
The Top 10 Trends in 10 Industries - WSJ.com
February 9, 2004 | WSJ | By GEORGE ANDERS.

The Top 10 Trends in 10 Industries
How do trend spotters find what they're looking for? They keep their eyes open...read voraciously and brainstorm with colleagues. Travel to hot spots of innovation, or just a few miles down the road. The ultimate goal is the same: to find the latest business trends with staying power. That's because their long-term professional success -- just like that of countless other executives -- depends on being early and accurate trend spotters....Some trend spotters rely on obscure journals, others on key groups of people they think are ahead of the curve. Some pore over data, others follow the money...."It's important at the top levels of an organization to spend time looking for big new ideas," "Farther down, people aren't going to have as much time to break away from the daily demands of their jobs to do this. But good leaders should help set a culture where this intuition about what's next is rewarded."....Distinguish between valuable trends and embarrassing fads.
trends  industries  idea_generation  trend_spotting  Accel  boring  Jim_Breyer  hotspots  discernment  fads  ahead_of_the_curve  George_Anders 
may 2012 by jerryking
Stop Looking for Ideas, Look for Problems to Grow Your Business - India Chief Mentor - WSJ
April 19, 2010, | WSJ | By Gautam Gandhi. Stop looking for
good ideas. That’s right, you read this correctly. Please don’t speak of good ideas ever again. Instead tell me about good problems. They'll most likely bring a business opportunity, Where are the problems?

If you look around there are problems everywhere. Question things you
take for granted and think to yourself: Is there a better way? When you
have your next business meeting, whether it is with a client or
customer, ask them what their biggest problems are. You will be
surprised by what people tell you. Hopefully, you will start to notice
patterns and will soon identify a problem to solve. Better still, if it
is a problem that affects you directly.

When you think of the problem that you are going to solve, ensure that:

You are tackling it for a sizable market
People are willing to pay for your solution
You assess your rivals

The last one is important. Never think: “I don’t have any competition.”
growth  problem_solving  pattern_recognition  idea_generation  problems  challenges  worthiness  messiness  uncharted_problems  large_markets  competition  questions  ideas  assumptions  criteria  India  pain_points  discernment  curiosity  dissatisfaction  opportunities  inquisitiveness  Michael_McDerment  worthwhile_problems 
july 2011 by jerryking
Unboxed - Yes, People Still Read, but Now It’s Social - NYTimes.com
June 18, 2010 | New York Times | By STEVEN JOHNSON, Nicholas
Carr's new book, “The Shallows,” argues that the compulsive skimming,
linking and multitasking of our screen reading is undermining the deep,
immersive focus that has defined book culture for centuries.
Distractions come with a heavy cost--studies show how multitasking harms
our concentration. But we must also measure what we gain from
multitasking....The problem with Mr. Carr’s model is its unquestioned
reverence for the slow contemplation of deep reading. For society to
advance as it has since Gutenberg, he argues, we need the quiet,
solitary space of the book. Yet many great ideas that have advanced
culture over the past centuries have emerged from a more connective
space, in the collision of different worldviews and sensibilities,
different metaphors and fields of expertise. (Gutenberg himself borrowed
his printing press from the screw presses of Rhineland vintners, as Mr.
Carr notes.)
cognitive_skills  collective_intelligence  collective_wisdom  Communicating_&_Connecting  connected_learning  contemplation  cross-disciplinary  deep_learning  discernment  distractions  focus  Johan_Gutenberg  Kindle  metaphors  multitasking  monotasking  Nicholas_Carr  reading  solitude  Steven_Johnson  sustained_inquiry  thinking  thinking_deliberatively  worldviews 
june 2010 by jerryking
The Age of External Knowledge - Idea of the Day Blog
January 19, 2010 | NYTimes.com.

Today’s idea: Filtering, not remembering, is the most important mental skill in the digital age, an essay says [JCK: filtering =discernment]. But this discipline will prove no mean feat, since mental focus must take place amid the unlimited distractions of the Internet.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Now, anyone with good critical thinking skills and the ability to focus on the important information can retrieve it on demand from the Internet, rather than her own memory.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Edge, the high-minded ideas and tech site, has posed its annual question for 2010 — “How is the Internet changing the way you think?”

David Dalrymple, a researcher at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, thinks human memory will no longer be the key repository of knowledge, and focus will supersede erudition. Quote:...... The bottom line is that how well an employee can focus might now be more important than how knowledgeable he is. Knowledge was once an internal property of a person, and focus on the task at hand could be imposed externally, but with the Internet, knowledge can be supplied externally, but focus must be forced internally.
cognitive_skills  critical_thinking  discernment  distractions  external_knowledge  filtering  focus  ideas  inner-directed  tools 
january 2010 by jerryking
Take Smart Risks
09.21.09 | Wired Magazine | by By William Gurstelle. "Done
artfully and wisely, living dangerously engages our intellect, advances
society, and even makes us happier. It is possible to work consciously
toward joining the "golden Third": Just get in there and start pitching.
As with knife-throwing, unicycle-riding, and whip-handling, one gets
better mainly by practice. Make your choices smart ones. It's not
difficult to discriminate between a good, soul-enriching risk and one
that's just plain nuts."

A comment:

That study of risk takers vs. non risk takers is probably
biased. The random sample of people interviewed most likely didn't
include people that were dead or in prison as a result of the risks they
took.

And it is very true, but sometimes risks are compounding and other times
they are isolated. It's important to distinguish when something that
appears to be isolated is really starting to compound.
category_errors  risk-taking  risks  self-actualization  isolation  compounded  discernment  risk-assessment  dangers  psychology  soul-enriching  practice  dedication  multiplicative  survivor_bias  cumulative 
october 2009 by jerryking
Follow successful investment managers, you'll learn from them
August 13, 2005 | Globe & Mail ROB pg B7 | by Ira Gluskin.
"The first question that you should ask is why does anyone in the
investment industry want to be interviewed or quoted?...A tip to
facilitate your newspaper reading productivity... The most important
articles to read are by, or about successful investment managers.
Articles by or about investment executives and corporate executives come
next. Research analysts should be read afterwards. The last experts to
rely on are economists, with one notable exception. Jeffrey Rubin of
CIBC.".......Avoid all the articles interviewing Mr. and Mrs. Average Canadian who want to share their investment expertise with us. Certainly there are many astute investors out there in the real world, but the real world is full of experts on sports, movies and politics as well. However, the editors of these sections do not choose to air these amateur views like they do in the financial section. I repeat that I recognize that there are brilliant investors out there, but they don't have the discipline of achieving reported performance numbers like myself. This lack of discipline prevents the reader from knowing whether they are dealing with lucky or smart people.
Ira_Gluskin  investment_advice  in_the_real_world  Jeffrey_Rubin  Gluskin_Sheff  money_management  wealth_management  high_net_worth  Toronto  Bay_Street  reading  productivity  howto  economists  investment_research  equity_research  research_analysts  worthiness  discernment  smart_people  luck  investors  self-discipline 
october 2009 by jerryking
When you're drowning in knowledge, it's experience that counts
Aug. 20, 2009 | Globe & Mail | by Dan Richards. The key
to success today is no longer knowledge and information alone; more than
ever it's the discipline, experience, perspective and insight to know
what to do with that information, something that only comes from the
battle scars earned working through multiple market cycles....The bottom line is simple: If knowledge alone drives success, then years of experience may be less critical than intellect and analytical prowess. But in a time of market uncertainty such as we see today, intellect and knowledge alone aren't enough. Financial advisers and money managers also need the acumen that only years of hard-won experience can bring.
business_acumen  commoditization_of_information  Dan_Richards  discernment  experience  financial_advisors  information_overload  insights  investment_advice  money_management  pattern_recognition  uncertainty  wisdom  self-discipline  judgment  perspectives 
august 2009 by jerryking
What are worthwhile problems: Feynman's moving letter
Posted on March 11, 2008 by Selva.

The worthwhile problems are the ones you can really solve or help solve, the ones you can really contribute something to. A problem is grand in science if it lies before us unsolved and we see some way for us to make some headway into it. I would advise you to take even simpler, or as you say, humbler, problems until you find some you can really solve easily, no matter how trivial. You will get the pleasure of success, and of helping your fellow man, even if it is only to answer a question in the mind of a colleague less able than you. You must not take away from yourself these pleasures because you have some erroneous idea of what is worthwhile.
problems  inspiration  creativity  advice  worthiness  uncharted_problems  discernment  Richard_Feynman  worthwhile_problems 
july 2009 by jerryking

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