jerryking + confidence   17

Navigating a Breathtaking Level of Global Economic Change
November 14, 2017 |The New York Times | by Andrew Ross Sorkin.
you’d think that any sense of “faith” in the global economy might be shaken, or at least, uncertain given events like North Korea, Russian interference in elections in the United States, post-Brexit Europe, and hurricane damage.

Not so.

In conversation after conversation with some of the nation’s top business leaders and chief executives last week, there is a stunning amount of genuine “confidence” in our economy here and, yes, even globally.

“I’m very surprised,” Laurence D. Fink, the founder of BlackRock, the largest money manager in the world overseeing some $6 trillion, said at The New York Times DealBook conference last Thursday, describing his new sense of optimism.......Mark Cuban, whose disdain for President Trump is so acute that he is considering running for president himself in 2020 as a Republican because it “means you get to go head-on with Trump right in the primaries — and so there’s nothing I’d have more fun doing.” Still, though, he said he believes the economy is in good enough shape that when it comes to investing in the stock market, “I just, you know, I just let it ride.”

Mr. Cuban, owner of the Dallas Mavericks, said he keeps a small amount of cash on hand as a precaution. “I keep a little bit, you know, as a hedge. I call it my ‘Trump hedge’ because you just never know.....Earlier in 2017, The Conference Board reported that chief executives’ confidence had reached 2008 pre-recession highs in the first quarter.....there are pockets of the economy that are causing anxiety. “The last two or three years have not been fun whatsoever,” Mickey Drexler, the chairman of J. Crew, said at the conference about the traditional retail business, which has been upended by Amazon and changes in consumer behavior. “It’s been miserable.” Those challenges are extending to mall owners and commercial real estate, too..... is the stock market a proxy for the economy of America?....“In the aftermath of corporate and public-sector disasters, it often emerges that participants fell prey to a collective form of willful blindness and overconfidence: mounting warning signals were systematically cast aside or met with denial, evidence avoided or selectively reinterpreted, dissenters shunned,” Roland Bénabou a professor at Princeton University wrote in a seminal work on confidence and groupthink. “Market bubbles and manias exhibit the same pattern of investors acting ’colorblind in a sea of red flags,’ followed by a crash.”
confidence  Andrew_Sorkin  Mark_Cuban  Laurence_Fink  BlackRock  shifting_tastes  optimism  consumer_behavior  CEOs  J._Crew  Mickey_Drexler  commercial_real_estate  shopping_malls  warning_signs  groupthink  bubbles  overconfidence  precaution  global_economy  willful_blindness  manias  market_crash 
november 2017 by jerryking
Yale to Build Tool Offering Real-Time Lessons on Financial Crises -
May 9, 2017 | WSJ | By Gabriel T. Rubin.

Yale University will launch an online platform to provide real-time support to policy makers dealing with financial crises, with the help of a $10 million gift from business leaders and philanthropists Bill Gates, Jeff Bezos, Bloomberg Philanthropies and the Peter G. Peterson Foundation.

The gift represents a major expansion of the Yale Program on Financial Stability, a degree-granting program in the university’s school of management that aims to train early- and midcareer financial regulators from around the globe.

The new resources will support a small staff of researchers, led by Professor Andrew Metrick, as they build a database of “lessons from hundreds of interventions from past crises,” the university said. The effort is the first of its kind, according to Yale, and reflects a need for more research on “wartime” situations, rather than the preventive sort of regulatory research done by central banks around the world. Central banks often avoid extensive crisis preparations out of reluctance to promote moral hazard, leaving policy makers to reinvent the wheel each time a new crisis arises.....Mr. Geithner, who serves as the chairman of the Program on Financial Stability, said that he and other policy makers would have been able to act faster and with greater confidence during the financial crisis with access to the tools that Mr. Metrick’s team will build.

“There were probably four or five periods when the crisis was escalating, the panic was spreading, sitting on the phone for 20 hours a day trying to figure out how to do things,” Mr. Geithner recalled. “And we hadn’t had to do some of those things since the Great Depression. That took us a lot of time, and that can be costly.”

The open online platform will include descriptions of specific interventions—for example, the use of a “bad bank” to hold distressed assets—and will detail what did and didn’t work well in each case.
Yale  Colleges_&_Universities  crisis  regulators  Walter_Bagehot  central_banks  real-time  databases  lessons_learned  policy_tools  Peter_Peterson  reinventing_the_wheel  policymakers  confidence  economic_downturn  decision_making  speed  the_Great_Depression  crisis_management  crisis_response  Tim_Geithner  moral_hazards  financial_crises 
may 2017 by jerryking
Lawrence H. Summers: ‘There are many ways of burdening our future’ - The Globe and Mail
RUDYARD GRIFFITHS
Special to The Globe and Mail
Published Friday, Mar. 20 2015

Lawrence Summers: confidence is the cheapest form of stimulus.

If a young person asked you, ‘How do I thrive in a low-growth economy?’ what would your advice be?

It’s never been more important to be comfortable with technology, to be well-educated, to not just know things, but know how to learn, and develop a set of distinctive skills that employers can value. For people who are able to do those things, the combination of technology and global markets will make this a moment of immense opportunity........There are many ways of burdening the future. One is to borrow money – though, given how low interest rates are, those burdens aren't that great. Another is to defer maintenance. Those costs accumulate at a much greater rate, and that's why I think infrastructure investment is so very important. Another way to burden future generations is to scrimp on education. Another way is to fail to invest in basic scientific research. Another way is to saddle them with huge pension liabilities for those who are working, serving the public today. We are doing all those things.
advice  America_in_Decline?   automation  confidence   deferred_maintenance  downward_mobility   economic_stagnation   economic_stimulus   economy  growth  infrastructure  Larry_Summers   leaps_of_faith    low_growth  new_graduates  Rudyard_Griffiths   skills  slow_growth  technology  the_Great_Decoupling  
march 2015 by jerryking
Finding Strength in Humility - NYTimes.com
November 15, 2013 | NYT | By TONY SCHWARTZ

When we identify with a particular strength, the opposite we’re avoiding is almost always negative. For confidence, it’s insecurity or self-doubt. But what happens when we overuse confidence? It turns into arrogance, hubris and even grandiosity. Any strength overused eventually becomes toxic. Excessive honesty becomes cruelty. Tenacity congeals into rigidity. Bias for action can overwhelm thoughtful reflection.

This is where positive opposites serve as a balancing and humanizing role. Humility comes from the Latin word “humilis,” which literally means “low.” It resides just a stone’s throw from “humiliation.” Sure enough, excessive humility eventually softens into obsequiousness and self-subjugation. False humility is even worse: a conscious manipulation covertly aimed at winning praise, often to compensate for unacknowledged feelings of inadequacy.

But genuine humility is a reflection of neither weakness nor insecurity. Instead, it implies a respectful appreciation of the strengths of others, a lack of personal pretension and a more relaxed sense of confidence that doesn’t require external recognition.

In a complex world that so plainly and painfully defies easy answers, humility is also an antidote to overconfidence. It gives leaders permission to accept and acknowledge their limitations, to learn from them and continue to grow and evolve.....I don’t need to say out loud that I value confidence and strength. I do need to demonstrate that I also value humility and vulnerability – to embrace these opposites. In the end, the less time we spend protecting our own value, the more time we can spend creating value in the world.
Managing_Your_Career  humility  opposing_actions  personality_types/traits  character_traits  strengths  contemplation  reflections  pairs  overconfidence  dual-consciousness  self-doubt  arrogance  hubris  grandiosity  confidence  insecurity  honesty  cruelty  tenacity  rigidity  toxic_behaviors 
november 2013 by jerryking
Larry Fink: “We need confidence back”
Jan. 24 2013 | The Globe and Mail |

BlackRock is huge. Are you getting opportunities that individual investors are not?

That's such an open-ended question that it's kind of meaningless. Is the sky blue? I have offices worldwide. I talk to clients worldwide. That's information, but it's not inside information. It's knowledge from being an active participant. We are serving our clients better by doing that. Do I have a better understanding of what's going on in the markets than an individual? I would hope so.

What were the biggest lessons investors should have learned from the financial crisis?

There were many of them. There was way too much leverage in the system, and this is one reason that economies still are not fully out of their doldrums. Institutions really didn't have a good handle on their risk in 2008, either. You could argue that, rather than too big to fail, some of them were too big to understand, too big to manage. Also, when all that leverage was sucked out at once, the whole world became correlated. That aggravated things. Hedges that people thought would minimize their exposures did not. It took a lot of liquidity and capital supplied by central banks to steady things.

Look, from an equity investor's perspective, the beauty of the world right now, and the negative, is that there's so much uncertainty, such a lack of confidence.

How would you invest $100,000 right now?

It depends on your age. If you're 22 years old, I'd put all of that into stocks. But that's me. Before I'd even answer that question, I'd ask: Tell me, how neurotic are you? Can you live with short-term losses? Can you accept the need to hold? Is your holding period 10 years, 20 years? Are you frightened of volatility? It's a cardinal sin if we think that one size fits all. And if you're looking at your mobile device every day to see what the markets are doing, to see if your $100,000 is up or down, that's not good.
Laurence_Fink  BlackRock  investing  investment_advice  liquidity  market_intelligence  questions  cash_reserves  lessons_learned  mistakes  idle_funds  confidence  problem_definition  unfair_advantages 
january 2013 by jerryking
I Think I Can, I Think I Can... - WSJ.com
March 12, 2007 | WSJ | By GEORGE ANDERS.
Successful entrepreneurs believe they can make a lot of money, even when they don't. But can that confidence be taught?

We had one of those prodigies in our high school. Andy was clever, funny -- and constantly in trouble with the principal. His grades were mediocre, but he made a lot of money (and provided jobs for the rest of us) by running a snack bar on site that sold hundreds of candy bars a week.

Within a decade of graduation, Andy was making more than $1 million a year as a commodity trader in Chicago. Ever since, he has been a major player in the capital markets, creating firms and darting into new trading areas. Meanwhile, classmates with much better grades have opted for the safe obscurity of a windowed office inside a major law firm.
confidence  entrepreneurship  inspiration  parenting  traders  commodities  capital_markets  George_Anders 
august 2012 by jerryking
How to Build Your Network
December 2005 | HBR | Brian Uzzi and Shannon Dunlap.

Strong personal networks don't just happen at the watercooler. They have to be carefully constructed.Networks offer three unique advantages: private information, access to different skills and power. Leaders see the benefits of working every day, but perhaps not pause to examine how their networks are governed....Here's how to strengthen your connections.

Paul Revere was an information broker, a person who occupies a key role in a social network by connecting disparate groups of people....Networks determine which ideas become breakthroughs, which new drugs are prescribed, which farmers cultivate pest-resistant crops, and which R&D engineers makes the most high impact discoveries....When we make judgments, we use both public and private information. These days, public information is readily available from various sources, including the Internet, but precisely because it is so accessible, public information provides a competitive advantage much less than usual. Privacy, however, gathered from personal contacts that can offer something unique that can not be found in public spaces such as the release of a new product, the novel software code, or knowledge of this what a particular investigator seeks in candidates. Private information, therefore, may provide an advantage for executives, but is more subjective than public information, because it usually is not marked by an independent third party, such as Dun & Bradstreet. Therefore, the value of your private information to others and the value of your private information depends on how much confidence exists in the network of relationships....the best way to have a good idea is to have a lot of ideas....And when you trade information or skills with people whose experiences differ from your own, you provide one another with unique, exceptionally valuable resources....Power was repositioned in the network's information brokers, who could adapt to changes in the organization, develop clients, and synthesize opposing points of view.
These brokers weren't necessarily at the top of the hierarchy or experts in the field, but they linked specialists in the firm with trustworthy and informative ties.
networking  social_networking  social_capital  HBR  howto  networks  nonpublic  confidence  slight_edge  proprietary  relationships  exclusivity  public_information  private_information  inequality_of_information  homogeneity  heterogeneity  dual-consciousness  power_brokers  network_power  personal_chemistry  personal_connections  judgment  prolificacy  subjectivity  information_brokers  intentionality 
march 2012 by jerryking
Design Sets Tone at Square, a Mobile Payments Start-Up - NYTimes.com
By NICK BILTON
| January 15, 2012,

“We believe strongly that the company is going to be reflected in the product and vice-versa,” Mr. Dorsey said. “The internal matches the external and the external matches the internal, and if we can’t provide a clean, simple, well-designed experience in here, it’s not going to be reflected in our identity. It’s in our DNA.” (Mr. Dorsey also is the chairman and co-founder of Twitter, where his obsession with openness is not as extreme.)

Square also borrows metaphors from traditional institutions, including the old United States Mint building, which sits across the street from the company’s office. “It looks like something that is built to last; it looks like it will stay up forever,” he said. “So how do you build that into pixels instead of stone?”

For centuries banks were built with thick stone walls, marble slab floors and heavy metal doors, all of which gave customers the feeling that bankers were dependable and trustworthy.

Square transactions primarily occur on a small plastic plug, inserted into a smartphone’s headphone jack, through which people swipe credit cards.

A hefty chunk of marble it is not. Square’s front door to customers is a smartphone application. Square has to provide the simplest experience possible, Mr. Dorsey believes, because, along with good design, it will evoke trust and confidence in a new financial institution that lives in a smartphone.
Square  Jack_Dorsey  start_ups  mobile_payments  metaphors  design  smartphones  mobile_applications  UX  customer_experience  trustworthiness  confidence 
january 2012 by jerryking
Why business despairs of Obama
October 2, 2011 | FT | By Mort Zuckerman.

businesses are trying to enhance productivity, not create jobs. Polls show that business leaders are growing increasingly pessimistic. In the past six months a third of companies have delayed or cancelled plans for capital spending...

The era of frugality is back. Today it is not a stock market crash or a crash in residential real estate but a crash in confidence that will constrain the effectiveness of public policy and have long-lasting impacts on the consumer and the economy. The historic American optimism has dramatically eroded. The great American dream is no longer a house in the suburbs. It is a secure job, but almost any job will do.
Obama  Mort_Zuckerman  business_confidence  confidence  CAPEX  the_American_dream 
october 2011 by jerryking
Jules Kroll shakes up the ratings club
January 29, 2011 | CTV News | JOANNA SLATER. Mr. Kroll, 69,
is bringing his investigative chops to a new business: credit ratings.
It’s a corner of finance that remains indispensable even after the
leading agencies did a woeful job of gauging risks in the runup to the
financial crisis.

As banks packaged dicey loans into new investments, the major ratings
agencies affirmed that the structures were ultrasafe – until, of course,
it turned out they weren’t. That experience so scorched investors that
the market for such structures remains moribund to this day.

“The fans left the stadium a couple years ago,” says Mr. Kroll, a
gregarious one-time baseball and rugby player. “They didn’t feel they
could trust the referees or the scorekeeper.” The firm he now heads,
Kroll Bond Rating Agency Inc., aims to remedy that lack of confidence.
confidence  credit-ratings  due_diligence  Jules_Kroll  Kroll  new_businesses  risk-analysis  risk-assessment 
april 2011 by jerryking
Corner Office - The 5 Habits of Highly Effective C.E.O.’s
April 16, 2011|NYT|ADAM BRYANT
* Passionate Curiosity.
Share stories re. failures, doubts & mistakes. Ask big-picture
questions re. why things work the way they do & can they be improved
upon? Know people’s back stories, and what they do. Relentless
questioning can lead to spotting new opportunities, or helping
understand subordinates, and how to get them to work together
effectively.
* Battle-Hardened Confidence
The best predictor of behavior is past performance, & that’s why so
many CEOs interview job candidates about how they've dealt with failure.

* Team Smarts
* A Simple Mind-Set
Be concise, get to the point, make it simple. ...There was a time when
simply having certain information was a competitive advantage. Now, in
the Internet era, most people have easy access to the same information.
That puts a greater premium on the ability to synthesize, to connect
dots in new ways and to ask simple, smart questions that lead to
untapped opportunities.
* Fearlessness - Not status quo!
CEOs  commoditization_of_information  concision  confidence  connecting_the_dots  contextual_intelligence  critical_thinking  curiosity  executive_management  fearlessness  interpretation  ksfs  leadership  Managing_Your_Career  mindsets  overlooked_opportunities  questions  subordinates  teams  the_big_picture 
april 2011 by jerryking
The Regulation Crisis: A failure of economic and environmental regulation
June 14, 2010 | The New Yorker | by James Surowiecki.
As Carpenter argues in a recent essay, successful regulation, by filling
information gaps and managing risk, fosters confidence in the safety
and honesty of markets, which in turn makes them bigger and more robust.
The pharmaceutical industry, for instance, would be much smaller if
people were seriously worried that they might be poisoned every time
they took a new drug. And though executives chafe at financial
regulation, the protection it provides makes investors far more likely
to hand them money to play with. If we want our regulators to do better,
we have to embrace a simple idea: regulation isn’t an obstacle to
thriving free markets; it’s a vital part of them.
confidence  regulation  James_Surowiecki  free_markets  economics  investors  politics  SEC  oil_spills  BP  information_gaps  pharmaceutical_industry  regulators 
june 2010 by jerryking
Justice not seen - The Globe and Mail
Apr. 03, 2010 | Globe and Mail .China should open its courtroom
door, on the grounds of general principles of procedural and
substantive justice, as well on the narrower ground of giving confidence
to foreign citizens and companies that they will be treated fairly.
Australia  China  courtroom_process  editorials  transparency  confidence 
april 2010 by jerryking
To fix the economy, tell the right stories
May 14, 2009 | Globe and Mail | by ROBERT SHILLER

World confidence can return if the population's thinking co-ordinates
around some inspiring story beyond that of the price increases
themselves. In Shiller's book with George Akerlof, Animal Spirits, they
describe the ups and downs of a macroeconomy as being substantially
driven by stories. Such narratives, especially those fuelled by
accessible human-interest stories, are the thought viruses whose
contagion drives the economy. The contagion rate of stories depends on
their relation to feedback, but plausible stories have to be there in
the first place. The narratives have substantial persistence in that
they affect our views.
storytelling  economic_downturn  ideas  Communicating_&_Connecting  jck  Robert_Shiller  economics  confidence  macroeconomics  inspiration  ideaviruses  contagions  narratives  economic_dynamism  leaps_of_faith 
may 2009 by jerryking

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