jerryking + anticipating   50

We need to be better at predicting bad outcomes
September 2019 | Financial Times | by Tim Harford.

A question some of us ask all too often, and some of us not often enough: what if it all [jk: our plan] goes wrong?.....we don’t think about worst-case scenarios in the right way......
The first problem is that our sense of risk is pretty crude. The great psychologist Amos Tversky joked that most of us have three categories when thinking about probabilities: “gonna happen”, “not gonna happen” and “maybe”.....It would be helpful if our sense of risk was a little more refined; intuitively, it is hard to grasp the difference between a risk of one in a billion and that of one in a thousand. Yet, for a gambler — or someone in the closely related business of insurance — there is all the difference in the world.....research by Barbara Mellers, Philip Tetlock and Hal Arkes suggests that making a serious attempt to put probabilities on uncertain future events might help us in other ways: the process makes us more humble, more moderate and better able to discern shades of grey. Trying to forecast is about more than a successful prediction......we can become sidetracked by the question of whether the worst case is likely. Rather than asking “will this happen?”, we should ask “what would we do if it did?”

The phrase “worst-case scenario” probably leads us astray: anyone can dream up nightmare scenarios.....To help us think sensibly about these worst-case possibilities, Gary Klein, psychologist and author of Seeing What Others Don’t, has argued for conducting “pre-mortems” — or hypothetical postmortems. Before embarking on a project, imagine receiving a message from the future: the project failed, and spectacularly. Now ask yourself: why? Risks and snares will quickly suggest themselves — often risks that can be anticipated and prevented.......Contingency planning is not always easy......woes that would result both as the “base case” (the truth) and a “worst-case scenario” (the government sucking in its stomach while posing for a selfie).
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In our increasingly airbrushed world, it becomes ever more necessary to ask the unfashionable questions like ‘what could possibly go wrong?’ - and then plan for it...
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Humanity's survival may well rely on the ability of our imaginations to explore alternative futures in order to begin building the communities that can forestall or endure worst-case catastrophes.
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Amos_Tversky  anticipating  base_rates  beforemath  books  contingency_planning  discernment  failure  forecasting  foresight  frequency_and_severity  humility  nuanced  predictions  preparation  probabilities  risk-assessment  risks  Tim_Harford  uncertainty  worst-case 
26 days ago by jerryking
The Bank of England future-proofs itself – MainStreetEcon
June 26, 2018 | Financial Times | by mainstreetecon 14 hours ago14 hours ago

[Future-proofing is the process of anticipating the future and developing methods of minimizing the effects of shocks and stresses of future events. ]
anticipating  Bank_of_England  central_banks  frameworks  future-proofing  monetary_policy  policymakers 
june 2018 by jerryking
The Six Laws of Technology Everyone Should Know WSJ
Nov. 26, 2017 | WSJ |By Christopher Mims.

1. ‘Technology is neither good nor bad; nor is it neutral’ Melvin Kranzberg in the 1960s. He became a technology historian. Prof. Kranzberg’s first law is also his most important. He realized that the impact of a technology depends on its geographic and cultural context, which means it is often good and bad—at the same time. (E.g. DDT, a pesticide and probable carcinogen nonetheless saved the lives of hundreds of thousands of people in India as a cheap and effective malaria prevention. Or, Facebook groups, serve as a lifeline for parents of children with rare diseases while also radicalizing political extremists. Tech companies' enormous power means they have an obligation to try to anticipate the potential impact of anything they produce.....however, the dirty little secret of highly accomplished people is what we’ve had to neglect to achieve that,” (JK: tradeoffs) “To become spectacular at any discipline in technology means you’re not well-equipped to address these questions.”

2. ‘Invention is the mother of necessity.’ Yes, that’s backward from the way you remember it. It means “every technical innovation seems to require additional technical advances in order to make it fully effective,” In our modern world, the invention of the smartphone has led to the necessity for countless other technologies, from phone cases to 5G wireless. Apple’s cure for staring at your phone too much? A smartwatch to glance at 100 times a day.

3. ‘Technology comes in packages, big and small. To understand any part of a technological package requires looking at its interaction with and dependency on the rest of it—including the human beings essential to how it functions. While innovation destroys jobs, it also creates countless new ones.

4. ‘Although technology might be a prime element in many public issues, nontechnical factors take precedence in technology-policy decisions.’ “People think technology as an abstraction has some sort of intrinsic power, and it doesn’t,” “It has to be motivated by political power or cultural power or something else.”

Craig Federighi, Apple senior vice president, software engineering, spoke about differential privacy, which Apple says is a way to collect user data while protecting the individual’s anonymity.
More broadly, lawmakers are taking an interest in everything from privacy and data transparency to national security and antitrust issues in tech—more because of a shift in our culture than in the technology itself.

5. ‘All history is relevant, but the history of technology is the most relevant.’ The Cold War led to the buildup of nuclear weapons and the missiles to deliver them anywhere on Earth. That led to the development of a war-proof communication system: the internet..... But does that mean we owe the modern world to the existential contest between the U.S. and the former U.S.S.R.? Or was that conflict itself driven by previous technological developments that allowed Hitler to threaten both nations?

6. ‘Technology is a very human activity.’ “Technology is capable of doing great things,” .....how we use technology is up to us. The trick is, because technology generally reaches mass adoption via corporations, those businesses must think of the consequences of their actions as well as how they profit from them. When corporations don’t, regulators, journalists and the public sometimes do it for them.

As Prof. Kranzberg presciently noted at the dawn of the internet age, “Many of our technology-related problems arise because of the unforeseen consequences when apparently benign technologies are employed on a massive scale.”
anonymity  anticipating  Christopher_Mims  Cold_War  contextual  cultural_power  high-achieving  necessity  nuclear  overachievers  political_power  privacy  problems  scaling  technology  tradeoffs  unforeseen  unintended_consequences 
november 2017 by jerryking
Tornado-Ravaged Hospital Took Storm-Smart Approach During Rebuild - Risk & Compliance Journal.
Aug 30, 2017 | WSJ | By Ben DiPietro.

...................“Preparation for what these events can be–and belief they can actually happen–is important so you make sure you are preparing for them,” ....trying to undertake whatever is your organizational mission in the midst of a tornado or other devastating event is much harder, given the high emotions and stress that manifests itself at such moments.

“Understand the possibilities and pre-planning will make that go a lot better,”

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As Hurricane Harvey has shown, extreme weather events can devastate a region’s infrastructure. Hospital operator Mercy had its own experience of this in 2011 when a tornado ripped through Joplin, Mo., killing 161 people and destroying its hospital.

Hospital operator Mercy took the lessons it learned from that tornado experience and incorporated them into the design of the new hospital–and also changed the way it plans and prepares for disasters. The new facility reflects a careful risk assessment, as Mercy took into account not only the physical risk of tornadoes but the risks to power supplies and medical supplies.

“We always prepare, always have drills for emergencies, but you never quite can prepare for losing an entire campus,” ....“Now we are preparing for that…it definitely changed the way we look at emergency management.”

** Protecting What Matters Most **
Mercy took the lessons it learned from that devastating weather event and applied them when it was time to build its latest hospital, which was constructed in a way to better withstand tornadoes while providing more secure systems infrastructure and adding backup systems to ensure operations continued unimpeded, ......Even the way medical supplies were stored was changed; instead of storing supplies in the basement, where they were inaccessible in the immediate aftermath of the tornado, they now are kept on each floor so staff don’t need to go hunting around for things they need during an emergency.....“The first priority is to save lives, the second is to minimize damage to the facility,”

** Focus on the Worst **
many companies worry about low-severity, high-frequency events–those things that happen a lot. They instead need to focus more on high-severity events that can cause a company to impair its resilience. “....identify and work on a worst-case scenario and make sure it is understood and the company is financially prepared for it,”

work with its key vendors and suppliers to know what each will do in the face of a disaster or unexpected disruption. “...large companies [should] know their key vendors prior to any major incidents,” ...“Vendors become partners at that time and you need to know people will do what you need them to do.”

A company needs to assess what is most important to its operations, map who their vendors are in those areas and engage them in various loss scenarios .... It should review its insurance policy language against possible weather events, identify any gaps and either revise policies to fill those holes or to at least make sure executives understand what the risks are of leaving those gaps unattended.
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See also :
What to Do Before Disaster Strikes - WSJ.com ☑
September 27, 2005 | WSJ | By GEORGE ANDERS.
start by cataloging what could go wrong. GM, for example, has created "vulnerability maps" that identify more than 100 hazards, ranging from wind damage to embezzlement. Such maps make it easier for managers to focus on areas of greatest risk or gravest peril.
low_probability  disasters  Hurricane_Harvey  extreme_weather_events  hospitals  tornadoes  design  rebuilding  preparation  emergencies  lessons_learned  worst-case  natural_calamities  anticipating  insurance  vulnerabilities  large_companies  redundancies  business-continuity  thinking_tragically  high-risk  risk-management  isolation  compounded  network_risk  black_swan  beforemath  frequency_and_severity  resilience  improbables  George_Anders  hazards  disaster_preparedness  what_really_matters 
september 2017 by jerryking
Rules for Modern Living From the Ancient Stoics -
May 25, 2017 | WSJ | By Massimo Pigliucci.

Stoicism is practical and humane, and it has plenty to teach us. The philosophy may have been developed around 300 B.C. by Zeno of Cyprus, but it is increasingly relevant today, as evidenced by the popularity of events such as Stoicon, an international conference set to hold its fourth annual gathering in Toronto this October.

The Stoics had centuries to think deeply about how to live, and they developed a potent set of exercises to help us navigate our existence, appreciating the good while handling the bad. These techniques have stood the test of time over two millennia. Here are five of my favorites.

(1) Learn to separate what is and isn’t in your power. This lets you approach everything with equanimity and tranquility of mind. ...Understand and internalize the difference, and you will be happier with your efforts, regardless of the outcome.

(2) Contemplate the broader picture. Looking from time to time at what the Stoics called “the view from above” will help you to put things in perspective and sometimes even let you laugh away troubles that are not worth worrying about. The Roman Emperor Marcus Aurelius made a note of this in his famous personal diary, “The Meditations”: “Altogether the interval is small between birth and death; and consider with how much trouble, and in company with what sort of people and in what a feeble body, this interval is laboriously passed.”

(3) Think in advance about challenges you may face during the day. A prepared mind may make all the difference between success and disaster.

(4) Be mindful of the here and now (i.e. living in the moment). The past is no longer under your control: Let it go. The future will come eventually, but the best way to prepare for it is to act where and when you are most effective—right here, right now.

(5) Before going to bed, write in a personal philosophical diary. This exercise will help you to learn from your experiences—and forgive yourself for your mistakes.

Stoicism was meant to be a practical philosophy. It isn’t about suppressing emotions or stalking through life with a stiff upper lip. It is about adjusting your responses to what happens, enduring what must be endured and enjoying what can be enjoyed.
Stoics  philosophy  Romans  journaling  self-discipline  mindfulness  span_of_control  mybestlife  preparation  beforemath  sense_of_proportion  the_big_picture  anticipating  contextual  forward_looking  foresight  GTD  perspectives  affirmations  beyond_one's_control  chance  living_in_the_moment  Greek  personal_control 
june 2017 by jerryking
The Power of ‘Why?’ and ‘What If?’ - The New York Times
JULY 2, 2016 | New York Times | By WARREN BERGER.

business leaders want the people working around them to be more curious, more cognizant of what they don’t know, and more inquisitive — about everything, including “Why am I doing my job the way I do it?” and “How might our company find new opportunities?”....Companies in many industries today must contend with rapid change and rising uncertainty. In such conditions, even a well-established company cannot rest on its expertise; there is pressure to keep learning what’s new and anticipating what’s next. It’s hard to do any of that without asking questions.

Steve Quatrano, a member of the Right Question Institute, a nonprofit research group, explains that the act of formulating questions enables us “to organize our thinking around what we don’t know.” This makes questioning a good skill to hone in dynamic times.....So how can companies encourage people to ask more questions? There are simple ways to train people to become more comfortable and proficient at it. For example, question formulation exercises can be used as a substitute for conventional brainstorming sessions. The idea is to put a problem or challenge in front of a group of people and instead of asking for ideas, instruct participants to generate as many relevant questions as they can.......Getting employees to ask more questions is the easy part; getting management to respond well to those questions can be harder.......think of “what if” and “how might we” questions about the company’s goals and plans........Leaders can also encourage companywide questioning by being more curious and inquisitive themselves.
asking_the_right_questions  questions  curiosity  humility  pretense_of_knowledge  unknowns  leadership  innovation  idea_generation  ideas  information_gaps  cost_of_inaction  expertise  anticipating  brainstorming  dynamic  change  uncertainty  rapid_change  inquisitiveness  Dr.Alexander's_Question  incisiveness  leaders  companywide 
july 2016 by jerryking
Brace yourselves: Trump is going to win - The Globe and Mail
DEREK BURNEY AND FEN OSLER HAMPSON
Contributed to The Globe and Mail
Published Monday, May 16, 2016

Prudence is anticipating the worst before it happens and readying yourself for the consequences.
Donald_Trump  Campaign_2016  anticipating  crossborder  preparation  prudence  readiness  Derek_Burney 
may 2016 by jerryking
From terrorism to technological disruption: Leaders need to tackle risk - The Globe and Mail
DAVID ISRAELSON
Special to The Globe and Mail
Published Wednesday, Jan. 27, 2016

“Not only do they have to think about and worry about economic changes and what their competitors are going to do, they now have a whole new level of political and regulatory risk,” Ms. Ecker says.

“You can’t predict in some cases how a policy maker is going to move. We’re seeing that in China now.”

At the beginning of 2016, as markets began a steep slide in China, that country’s regulators twice activated a “circuit breaker” mechanism to halt trading, only to abandon it after it appeared to make the drop in the market even worse.

The lesson is that sometimes “business practices and even business products that seem acceptable today, for whatever reason, when something happens can be considered things you shouldn’t be doing. There’s more policy unpredictability than ever before,” Ms. Ecker says.

“In an increasingly risky world, a CEO needs to be increasingly flexible and adaptable. You also need to have a team and know what the latest threat might be.”

That isn’t necessarily easy, she adds. “There’s no rule book. When I was in politics, people used to ask me what we should anticipate. I’d tell them, ‘Read science fiction books.’ ”....CEOs in today’s risky world also need people skills that may not have been necessary before, says Shaharris Beh, director of Hackernest, a Toronto-based not-for-profit group that connects worldwide tech companies.

“CEOs have always needed strong skills around rapid decision-making and failure mitigation. In today’s hypercompetitive startup business climate, leaders need two more: pivot-resilience and proleptic consensus leadership,” he says.

“Pivot-resilience is the ability to tolerate the stress of gut-wrenching risks when dramatically shifting strategy. In other words, be able to take the blame gracefully while still warranting respect among your team members.”

Proleptic consensus leadership is especially important for startups, Mr. Beh says. “It’s the ability to garner the team’s support for taking big risks by giving them the assurance of what backup plans are in place should things go sour.”

This consensus building “is how you keep support,” he adds. In a volatile economy, “people can jump ship at any time or even unintentionally sabotage things if they’re not convinced a particular course of action will work.” So you have to constantly persuade.
science_fiction  law_firms  law  risks  CEOs  risk-management  disruption  BLG  leaders  pivots  resilience  consensus  risk-taking  contingency_planning  unpredictability  political_risk  regulatory_risk  policymakers  flexibility  adaptability  anticipating  people_skills  circuit_breakers 
february 2016 by jerryking
As Germany Welcomes Migrants, Sexual Attacks in Cologne Point to a New Reality - The New York Times
By ALISON SMALE JAN. 14, 2016

In early December, the Cologne police made their New Year’s Eve preparations. Drawing on the previous year’s experience, they identified their biggest worry as pickpocketing and fireworks among the crowds. So they increased their holiday deployment, to 142 from 88, ...As 2016 neared on Dec. 31, however, some 1,500 men, including some newly arrived asylum seekers and many other immigrants, had instead assembled around Cologne’s train station. Drunk and dismissive of the police, they took advantage of an overwhelmed force to sexually assault and rob hundreds of people, according to police reports, shocking Germany and stoking anxieties over absorbing refugees across Europe....police reports and the testimony of officials and victims suggest that the officers failed to anticipate the new realities of a Germany that is now host to up to a million asylum seekers, most from war-torn Muslim countries unfamiliar with its culture. Working from outdated expectations, the police made a series of miscalculations that, officials acknowledge, allowed the situation to deteriorate. At the same time, both the police and victims say, it was not a situation any of them had encountered before. This was new terrain for all....But the commanding officer at the scene declined an offer of more than 80 reinforcements, who could have been in Cologne in an hour, according to Bernd Heinen, a senior police official, who criticized the commander for failing throughout the night to look ahead and anticipate a worsening situation....
sexual_assault  Germany  migrants  refugees  outdated  assumptions  forward_looking  preparation  miscalculations  anticipating  policing  asylum 
january 2016 by jerryking
Emergency planning: Flood warning — new data help predict risk - FT.com
September 4, 2015 4:42 pm
Emergency planning: Flood warning — new data help predict risk
Clive Cookson

Historical information can be a practical tool for planning responses to future emergencies....KnowNow Information, a spinout from computing giant IBM, has produced a prototype “flood event model” for Hampshire. Working with the Science and Technology Facilities Council’s Hartree supercomputing centre in Daresbury, Cheshire, its team crunched a vast accumulation of data — about water falling from the sky and lying on the ground, geology and landforms, urban geography and infrastructure, as well as past emergencies.
floods  massive_data_sets  history  extreme_weather_events  natural_calamities  data  data_driven  warning_signs  emergencies  anticipating  preparation 
september 2015 by jerryking
Cisco’s CEO on Staying Ahead of Technology Shifts - HBR
John Chambers
FROM THE MAY 2015 ISSUE

Mr. Chambers said that customers are the best indicators of when to make investments in new technology. “That’s one reason I spend so much time listening to CIOs, CTOs, and CEOs during sales calls,”
HBR  Cisco  anticipating  ksfs  transitions  indicators  market_intelligence  John_Chambers  IBM  layoffs  CEOs  market_windows  disruption  customer_relationships  sales_calls  CIOs  CTOs  listening 
may 2015 by jerryking
Don’t blame the flu for ER congestion - The Globe and Mail
ANDRÉ PICARD
The Globe and Mail
Published Tuesday, Jan. 06 2015,

Our emergency rooms are overflowing because of bad planning and misplaced priorities....Influenza is one of the most common and predictable infectious diseases on Earth. In Canada, it spreads from west to east and peaks at roughly the same time each year, near the end of December or early January.

Just as predictably, hospital ERs are besieged, most notably during the Christmas to New Year’s period.

There is more illness in the winter – not just flu, but gastroenteritis, colds and other pathogens spread by coughing and sneezing in close quarters....The larger issue is that our health system does nothing to anticipate and adjust to these problems. On the contrary, it is irresponsibly inflexible.

During the holiday season, retail outlets extend their hours, add additional staff, stock more supplies, and so on. All sensible stuff – Planning 101, if you will – designed to make life easier for the consumer.

Hospitals, and the health system more generally, do the opposite: During the holiday season, they reduce or close a range of services, from hospital beds to primary care clinics, and funnel patients to jam-packed emergency rooms.
adjustments  André_Picard  anticipating  community_care  congestion  emergency_rooms  flu_outbreaks  pathogens  planning  primary-care  healthcare  home_care  hospitals  inflexibility  influenza  overcapacity  overflow 
january 2015 by jerryking
The key to winning a dogfight? Focus - The Globe and Mail
HARVEY SCHACHTER
Special to The Globe and Mail
Published Sunday, Dec. 14 2014,

Keep your focus: Stay abreast of your field, reading widely and probing for information. His team’s knowledge of how to handle the dire situation they faced, from outwitting the enemy after being hit, to the latest survival training when plunged into the water, kept them alive. “The better informed you are, the better you will be,” he said....to get better you have to debrief after your skirmishes....Do you consistently get the most important things done at work? Your day is jammed with many activities, some important and some minutia. You need to know: If you could only accomplish only one thing, what that would be. Events will arise during the day that require your attention, and you must deal with them. But he notes that we often find ourselves in reactive mode, which can sometimes be misguided. This question addresses the active mode, setting out a plan of what to accomplish for the day...How do you and your teammates prepare for each day’s biggest challenges at work? Top guns have lots of computer displays surrounding them in the cockpit. Because of that complexity, they need a simple plan and to spend time discussing the “what ifs,” so when plans need to be altered, they can manoeuvre effectively. “It’s the same with business people. If you’re surprised, you will have trouble,” he warned.
Vietnam_War  veterans  focus  lessons_learned  U.S._Navy  Harvey_Schachter  feedback  scenario-planning  anticipating  preparation  contingency_planning  debriefs  post-mortems  simplicity  off-plan  priorities  surprises  market_intelligence  beforemath 
december 2014 by jerryking
Five questions to hone your business strategy - The Globe and Mail
HARVEY SCHACHTER
Special to The Globe and Mail
Published Sunday, Sep. 28 2014

1. Why does our business deserve to succeed?
2. What would a new CEO do?
3. Imagine it is three to six years in the future and the proposed strategy has been unsuccessful. Why did it fail?
4. What would have to be true for our strategy to succeed?
5. Would I put my own money into this?
strategy  business_planning  Harvey_Schachter  execution  effectiveness  assumptions  anticipating  questions  biases  overconfidence  self-delusions  skin_in_the_game 
september 2014 by jerryking
Sometimes luggage gets lost. Here's how to be prepared - The Globe and Mail
SAFA JINJE

Special to The Globe and Mail

Published Friday, Apr. 04 2014

The last time I did check a bag it was left overnight in Toronto; I was left inconsolable and without a Williamsburg-worthy change of clothes in New York. Making matters worse, it happened under the care of my colleagues, who only laughed at my pain. In retrospect, I should have purchased traveller’s insurance, which would have turned my fate into a joyous shopping montage.

However trite the saying, it truly is better to be safe than sorry. A good traveller does not just expect the worst, she anticipates it, because “bad luck” usually happens when you let yourself fall prey to the unexpected.

PACKING ADVICE

Keep all bare necessities such as medication, keys and wallets in your carry-on.
Beware of packing dangerous goods such as loose batteries, which can short-circuit and cause a fire in your luggage.
If you can’t lift your carry-on over your head into the overhead bin, chances are it is too heavy and must be checked.
Make sure all your bags have identification tags that include the best method to reach you in an emergency, be it by phone or e-mail.
Make sure that all liquids in your carry on are 100 millilitres or less.
travel  preparation  packing  anticipating  unexpected 
april 2014 by jerryking
How to leave your company better off than you found it - The Globe and Mail
VINCE MOLINARO

Special to The Globe and Mail

Published Thursday, Jan. 02 2014

How can you ensure that you are leaving your organization in better shape than when you took the reins? True leaders typically take the following steps:

1. Commit to making things better every single day – in ways that position your organization for both short- and long-term success. Don’t be a bystander and watch problems fester; have the courage to tackle them head on.

2. Guard the interests of the whole organization. Don’t just focus on your own department or self-interests.

3. Try to anticipate threats that can put your organization at risk. Stay plugged into what you hear from customers or employees close to customers. This is often where the early warning signs exist.
4. Build strong relationships both inside and outside your organization.
5. Develop an unyielding commitment to building a strong culture that drives high employee engagement.
6. Develop leaders for the future.
legacies  leadership  RBC  Gord_Nixon  stewardship  companywide  leaders  CEOs  employee_engagement  organizational_culture  leadership_development  relationships  anticipating  threats  thinking_holistically  long-term  short-term  incrementalism  nobystanders  warning_signs 
january 2014 by jerryking
The need for an analytical approach to life
November 3, 2013 | FT.com | By Rebecca Knight.

Risk analysis is not about predicting events; it’s about understanding the probability of possible scenarios, according to Elisabeth Paté-Cornell, professor at the Stanford School of Engineering.
In her latest research, she argues that expressions such as “black swan” and “perfect storm”, which have become journalistic shorthand when describing catastrophes, are just excuses for poor planning. Managers, should “think like engineers” and take a systematic approach to risk analysis. They should figure out how a system works and then identify the probable ways in which it could fail.
So does a black swan event exist?
The only one that I can think of is the Aids epidemic. In the case of a true black swan, you cannot anticipate it.
And what about ‘perfect storms’?
A combination of rare events is often referred to as a perfect storm. I think people underestimate the probability of them because they wrongly assume that the elements of a perfect storm are independent. If something happened in the past – even though it may not have happened at the same time as something else – it is likely to happen again in the future.
Why should managers take an engineering approach to analysing the probability of perfect storms?
Engineering risk analysts think in terms of systems – their functional components and their dependencies. If you’re in charge of risk management for your business, you need to see the interdependencies of any of the risks you’re managing: how the markets that you operate in are interrelated, for example.
You also need imagination. Several bad things can happen at once. Some of these are human errors and once you make a mistake, others are more likely to happen. This is because of the sequence of human error. When something bad happens or you make a mistake, you get distracted which means you’re more likely to make another mistake, which could lead to another bad event. When you make an error, stop and think. Anticipate and protect yourself.
How can you compute the likelihood of human error?
There are lots of ways to use systems analysis to calculate the probability of human error. Human errors are often rooted in the way an organisation is managed: either people are not skilled enough to do their jobs well; they do not have enough information; or they have the wrong incentives. If you’re paid for maximum production you’re going to take risks.
So in the case of a financial company I’d say monitor your traders, and maybe especially those that make a lot of money. There are a lot of ways you can make a lot of money: skill, luck, or through imprudent choices that sooner or later are going to catch up with you.
So you can do risk analysis even without reliable statistics?
We generally do a system-based risk analysis because we do not have reliable statistics. The goal is to look ahead and use the information we have to assess the chances that things might go wrong.
The upshot is that business schools ought to do a better job of teaching MBAs about probability.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
“Numbers make intangibles tangible,” said Jonah Lehrer, a journalist and
author of “How We Decide,” (Houghton Mifflin Harcourt, 2009). “They
give the illusion of control. [Add "sense of control" to tags]
engineering  sense_of_control  black_swan  warning_signs  9/11  HIV  Aids  business_schools  MBAs  attitudes  interconnections  interdependence  mindsets  Stanford  imagination  systems_thinking  anticipating  probabilities  pretense_of_knowledge  risk-management  thinking_tragically  complexity  catastrophes  shorthand  incentives  quantified_self  multiple_stressors  compounded  human_errors  risks  risk-analysis  synchronicity  cumulative  self-protection  systematic_approaches 
november 2013 by jerryking
What fatal flaw led us so deeply into debt?
October 18, 1997 | Globe & Mail | William Thorsell.

The Unheavenly City by Edward Banfield.

Wisdom has three practical dimensions (with intuition providing a fourth for the truly sage person). The first part of wisdom is knowledge, the second is context based on experience, the third is a long perspective on time......the more forward-looking you are, the higher your social class is. People who live a great deal of their intellectual life in the future derive two great advantages over those who do not: They avoid predictable damage to their interests, and they exploit opportunities that might otherwise be lost to others.

This requires a high tolerance for delayed gratification.

In his engaging book, Future Perfect, Stanley Davis argues that most people are stuck managing the results of things that have already happened....the aftermath. Great leaders manage what has not yet happened....the beforemath. "People who take out life insurance and have home mortgages are managing the beforemath...they are managing the consequences of events that have not yet taken place."
William_Thorsell  books  instant_gratification  delayed_gratification  sophisticated  social_classes  debt  debt_crisis  wisdom  long-term  intuition  far-sightedness  beforemath  anticipating  contextual  forward_looking  foresight  aftermath 
july 2013 by jerryking
You Have to Negotiate For Everything in Life, So Get Good at It Now - WSJ.com
January 27, 1998 | WSJ |By HAL LANCASTER

What kind of negotiation is it, asks Peter J. Pestillo, executive vice president of corporate relations for Ford Motor and one of the auto industry's leading labor negotiators. If it's a one-time-only event, you can concentrate on the result, he says. But if there's an ongoing relationship involved, "victory is making both sides feel satisfied," he says. "Take only what you need and don't try to make anybody look bad."...The toughest part of negotiating, Ms. Pravda says, is listening -- really listening -- to the other side. "Most people who negotiate like to talk," she explains, but if you understand their problem, you can craft a creative solution. "It doesn't hurt to say, 'I hear your problem; I don't know yet how to get there, but let me think about it,' " she says. "You become part of their team trying to solve their problem."

In career-related negotiations, she suggests anticipating concerns and lining up allies before making your pitch. In one case, she relates, an inexperienced associate seeking a new assignment lined up a senior associate to supervise him before making the request. "So he'd already taken care of my concerns," she says. In job-related negotiations, also, you must explain not only why the request is good for you, but for the company, she says.
Hal_Lancaster  negotiations  listening  Communicating_&_Connecting  win-win  anticipating  preparation  relationships  one-time_events  empathy 
december 2012 by jerryking
Parting Shot - WSJ.com
September 25, 2000 | WSJ | By HAL LANCASTER.
Parting Shot
What's a recession? Perhaps it's time to remember
warning_signs  recessions  anticipating  checklists  overconfidence 
july 2012 by jerryking
Some Preliminary Thoughts on Action Planning and Implementation
??| |??| John J. Gabarro and Leonard A. Schlesinger.

Establish credibility amongst co-workers by repeated sharing clean, coherent vision and plan of action. Convert vision to strategy.
first90days  execution  implementation  listening  contingency_planning  anticipating  influence  action_plans 
july 2012 by jerryking
Planning for and Implementing a Product Recall
July 2007 | Defense Counsel Journal | David G. Wix; Peter J. Mone

* The importance of foreseeing and planning for multijurisdiction product recalls cannot be overemphasized.
* Product recalls can present a major crisis for a manufacturer, potentially involving adverse media publicity, and in the case of a public company, a negative effect on stock price. A product recall that is not handled properly, effectively, and efficiently can result in permanent damage to the product brand, reduced profits, and loss of reputation and goodwill with consumers.
* The immediate priority of every product recall should be to bring the product risk to the attention of affected consumers and to enable them to adopt the company's chosen corrective measures as quickly as possible.

I. Before a Safety Issue Arises

A. Plan for a Global Product Recall In Advance
B. Learn and Improve From Past Recalls
C. Know Your Products: How They Are Made and Where They Are Distributed

II. Once a Safety Issue Arises
A. Take Action As Soon As You Learn of a Potential Safety Issue
B. Understand the Risk - And Be Prepared To Defend Your Decision Whether To Recall

III. Implementing a Product Recall
A. Select the Most Appropriate Communication Methods
B. Make the Recall Easy for Customers
C. Get the Notification Right the First Time
D. Coordinate Across Jurisdictions
E. Monitor Progress

IV. Conclusion
ProQuest  product_recalls  anticipating  frameworks  crisis 
june 2012 by jerryking
Road to Nowhere - New York Times
By DAVID BROOKS
January 1, 2008

...And yet as any true conservative can tell you, the sort of rational planning Mitt Romney embodies never works. The world is too complicated and human reason too limited. The PowerPoint mentality always fails to anticipate something. It always yields unintended consequences.

And what Romney failed to anticipate is this: In turning himself into an old-fashioned, orthodox Republican, he has made himself unelectable in the fall. When you look inside his numbers, you see tremendous weaknesses.

For example, Romney is astoundingly unpopular among young voters....But his biggest problem is a failure of imagination [jk: unimaginative]. Market research is a snapshot of the past. With his data-set mentality, Romney has chosen to model himself on a version of Republicanism that is receding into memory. As Walter Mondale was the last gasp of the fading New Deal coalition, Romney has turned himself into the last gasp of the Reagan coalition.

That coalition had its day, but it is shrinking now....The leaders of the Republican coalition know Romney will lose. But some would rather remain in control of a party that loses than lose control of a party that wins. Others haven’t yet suffered the agony of defeat, and so are not yet emotionally ready for the trauma of transformation. Others still simply don’t know which way to turn.

And so the burden of change will be thrust on primary voters over the next few weeks. Romney is a decent man with some good fiscal and economic policies. But in this race, he has run like a manager, not an entrepreneur....
David_Brooks  Mitt_Romney  Campaign_2008  anticipating  unimaginative  unintended_consequences  imagination  Reagan_coalition  rational_irrationality  mental_models  messiness 
june 2012 by jerryking
UNPRECEDENTED VOLATILITY A HALLMARK OF AGRICULTURE’S NEW AGE
* Have a plan for the future – perhaps a surprise to some, but many farmers don’t have a plan in place that paints a vision for where they want to take their operation over the next 2, 5 and 10 years.
• Have credit in place before it is actually required – it is human nature to leave things to the last minute.
• Implement a sound hedging strategy – in addition to the system of crop insurance in place in this country, there are many ways that Canadian farmers can take actions to manage their risk. Diversifying into new businesses is one example.
• Well-managed risk can pay off – at the same time, taking on some risk that is prudent and ts the risk pro le of the farming operation can pay off handsomely for farmers. In such a volatile and fast paced environment, there are bound to be some buying and selling opportunities that open up. Knowing when to take advantage of them can separate successful farms with those that muddle along.
• Know your costs – many producers have a good sense of how their top line is performing. But it is just as impor-tant to have a good understanding of the cost side of the equation.
• Maintain adequate liquidity and reasonable leverage – in order to mitigate the risks associated with increasing asset prices, it would be prudent for farmers to ensure that they have sufficient liquidity and manageable leverage if they are expanding.
• Use reasonable interest rate assumptions in assessing investment opportunities – even though borrowing costs are unusually low, farmers must be mindful of the fact that this low-rate environment won’t last forever.
agriculture  uncertainty  volatility  farming  liquidity  leverage  hedging  futures_contracts  diversification  new_businesses  risks  risk-management  risk-taking  OPMA  WaudWare  interest_rates  vision  long-term  never_forever  business_planning  credit  costs  anticipating  risk-mitigation  low-interest  cost-consciousness 
may 2012 by jerryking
The 6 Habits of True Strategic Thinkers
Mar 20, 2012 | | Inc.com | Paul J. H. Schoemaker.
Adaptive strategic leaders--the kind who thrive in today’s uncertain environment--do six things well:

1. Anticipate. Hone your “peripheral vision.” Reduce vulnerabilities to rivals who detect and act on ambiguous signals. ... Build wide external networks to help you scan the horizon better
2. Think Critically. Critical thinkers question everything. To master this skill, you must force yourself to reframe problems to get to the bottom of things, in terms of root causes. Challenge current beliefs and mindsets, including your own Uncover hypocrisy, manipulation, and bias in organizational decisions.
3. Interpret. Ambiguity is unsettling. Faced with it, you are tempted to reach for a fast (potentially wrongheaded) solution. A good strategic leader holds steady, synthesizing information from many sources before developing a viewpoint. To get good at this, you have to:Seek patterns in multiple sources of data; Question prevailing assumptions and test multiple hypotheses simultaneously.
4. Decide. Many leaders fall prey to “analysis paralysis.” Develop processes and enforce them, so that you arrive at a “good enough” position. To do that well, you have to: Carefully frame the decision to get to the crux of the matter, Balance speed, rigor, quality, and agility. Leave perfection to higher powers. Take a stand even with incomplete information and amid diverse views
5. Align. Consensus is rare. Foster open dialogue, build trust, and engage key stakeholders, especially when views diverge. To pull that off, you need to: Understand what drives other people's agendas, including what remains hidden. Bring tough issues to the surface, even when it's uncomfortable
Assess risk tolerance and follow through to build the necessary support
6. Learn.

As your company grows, honest feedback is harder and harder to come by. You have to do what you can to keep it coming.
Encourage and exemplify honest, rigorous debriefs to extract lessons
Shift course quickly if you realize you're off track
Celebrate both successes and (well-intentioned) failures that provide insight
Do you have what it takes?
tips  leadership  habits  strategic_thinking  anticipating  critical_thinking  networks  biases  conventional_wisdom  decision_making  empathy  feedback  thinking  failure  lessons_learned  leaders  interpretation  ambiguities  root_cause  insights  paralyze  peripheral_vision  analysis_paralysis  reframing  course_correction  vulnerabilities  good_enough  debriefs  post-mortems  problem_framing  discomforts  wide-framing  outward_looking  assumptions  game_changers 
march 2012 by jerryking
Taking the Stress out of Stressful Conversations
July-August 2001 | HBR | Holly Weeks

A good start is to become aware of your own weaknesses to people and situations. Be aware of your vulnerabilities.

Start with content.....Go over it again and think about what you would say if the situation weren't emotionally loaded.... Now fine tune the phrasing.

The goal is to advance the conversation, to hear and be heard accurately, and to have a functional exchange between two people. So the next time you want to snap at someone,"Stop interrupting me," try this--"Can you hold on a minute? I want to finish before I lose my train of thought of thought," Temperate phrasing will help you take the strain out of a stressful conversation.
HBR  conversations  Communicating_&_Connecting  tension  anticipating  preparation  stressful 
march 2012 by jerryking
DeMaurice Smith Takes On the N.F.L. Owners - NYTimes.com
By SRIDHAR PAPPU
January 22, 2011

As a corporate lawyer at Patton Boggs, the high-powered Washington firm,
Mr. Smith dealt with companies that were either “in crisis or were
about to be.” As a candidate for the N.F.L.P.A. job, he composed what he
called “Playbook: An Enterprise Philosophy to Maximize the Business and
Political Interest of the N.F.L.P.A.” “About 60 percent of it,” he
said, “was envisioning what the chances were of a lockout and what to do
to prepare for it.”

It was a useful exercise. “The only bad thing is that everything we
thought and contemplated the league would do they’ve done,” Mr. Smith
said.
anticipating  creating_valuable_content  crisis_management  enterprise_clients  event-driven  labour  lawyers  negotiations  NFL  playbooks  preparation  sports  troubleshooting  turnarounds  unions 
january 2011 by jerryking
We are stone heads on medicare
Feb 28, 2005 | G &M Page A13 | By WILLIAM THORSELL. In
his bestseller, Collapse, Jared Diamond asks: "Why do societies make
disastrous decisions?" He is referring primarily to the environment, but
the answers apply to other things as well. Societies make disastrous
decisions because: We fail to anticipate big problems. It's hard to see
them in advance. But you can't say that about Canada's debt crisis, or
the rising crush of medicare. They were predicted for yrs., and yet we
barged on into them. We fail to perceive problems when they do arrive
because they are too small to see, or because they arrive slowly and we
get used to them....But the most potent of Mr. Diamond's reasons is "core values" -- the insistence on holding to certain defining values in the face of even mortal threats.

He cites the cult on Easter Island (cutting down trees to erect giant stone heads) as an example of bovine loyalty to core values in the face of compelling problems (deforestation).

Isn't that the case with medicare in Canada? We have raised the monopoly-pay/provider model to the status of a defining icon -- a core value of Canada itself. No matter how self-destructive and ineffective this approach may be, we are too invested in its symbolism to change it. It's a classic case of dumb loyalty to dysfunction, with deserved consequences.
William_Thorsell  Medicare  Jared_Diamond  incrementalism  anticipating  Canada  healthcare  creeping_normality  complacency  selfishness  values  self-destructive  slowly_moving  core_values  imperceptible_threats  societal_collapse 
october 2010 by jerryking
Avoid Betamax’s fate by anticipating change
May. 20, 2010 | The Globe and Mail | Mia Wedgbury. The
challenge is to anticipate change and act decisively.

Regardless of what industry you’re in, you have to be aware of changes
that may impact your business. A pool company, for instance, has to know
that there is a growing demand for salt-water systems, or that safety
covers have come down in price. They should also know that the
traditional method of advertising won’t suffice (a number on the side of
a van doesn’t cut it any more).
small_business  public_relations  anticipating 
may 2010 by jerryking
Business diary: Claudi Santiago
May 11, 2010 | Financial Times. pg. 10 | Emma Jacobs.

GE's best oil and gas engineering brains lead these sessions; their
technical expertise is incredibly deep and they are constantly pushing
the boundaries, thinking of solutions three, five and even 20 years out.
ProQuest  GE  executive_management  CEOs  profile  oil_industry  anticipating  forward_looking 
may 2010 by jerryking
What Any Goldman Settlement Might Entail - DealBook/White Collar Watch Blog - NYTimes.com
May 6, 2010 | NYT | by Peter J. Henning who's working on a
book, “The Prosecution and Defense of Public Corruption: The Law &
Legal Strategies,” by Oxford Univ. Press. What might it take for GS to
resolve its various lawsuits & inquiries? Threats? 3-fold: (1) SEC's
lawsuit; (2) a slew of private shareholder suits that largely piggyback
the S.E.C. claims; (3) a DoJ investigation. The SEC’s fraud case
presents the most immediate threat to GS, DoJ investigation could have
the greatest impact if it develops into a full-blown threat of
prosecution, while the private suits are of less importance as they pose
little if any threat to the GS’s continuing operations. For the SEC:
($=monetary penalties), appt. of an outside monitor to oversee GS’s
compliance with the terms of the settlement, require GS to appoint a
different person as chair; For the DoJ --difficult for GS to negotiate
some type of resolution; For Private Litigants there's whether the GS
board breached its fiduciary duty.
anticipating  books  corruption  Department_of_Justice  financial_penalties  Goldman_Sachs  legal  legal_strategies  SEC  think_threes  white-collar  white-collar_crime 
may 2010 by jerryking
Dear Graduate...
JUNE 19, 2006 | Business Week | By Jack and Suzy Welch. (1) As
an ambitious 22-year-old readying to enter the corporate world, how can I
quickly distinguish myself as a winner? -- Dain Zaitz, Corvallis, Ore.

One gets ahead by over-delivering. Start thinking big. Go beyond being the grunt assigned. Do the extra legwork and data-crunching to give [clients] something that really expands their thinking—an analysis, for instance, of how an entire industry might play out over the next three years. What new companies and products might emerge? What technologies could change the game? Could someone, perhaps the client's own company, move production to China?

(2) Revenue growth is at the top of my to-do list. What should I look
for in hiring great sales professionals? -- John Cioffi, Westfield, N.J.
questions  hiring  recruiting  Managing_Your_Career  advice  Jack_Welch  strategic_thinking  anticipating  new_graduates  chutzpah  movingonup  overdeliver  Pablo_Picasso  individual_initiative  generating_strategic_options  independent_viewpoints  thinking_big  game_changers 
november 2009 by jerryking
The "Warning" Czar?
Oct. 17, 2009 | - Adam Smith, Esq.| by Bruce MacEwen. The US
has a "national intelligence official for warning", Kenneth Knight, who
oversees a staff of a half-dozen analysts whose job is to monitor the
rest of the intelligence community, challenging their analyses and
assumptions. The goal is to to avoid surprise. One of Knight's core
insights is the difference between what he calls the "simple
likelihood-of-the-event versus impact-of-the-event calculation." Knight
thinks you can systematize this type of analysis by being understand
and being beware of the cognitive biases of experts; by training; and by
creating an institutional check--a warning staff or Red Team. Beware
analytical frameworks--know their limitations.
Bruce_MacEwen  strategic_thinking  security_&_intelligence  systematic_approaches  contrarians  risk-management  counterintuitive  red_teams  anticipating  biases  surprises  warning_signs  devil’s_advocates  frequency_and_severity  intelligence_analysts 
october 2009 by jerryking
Schools Prepare for Next Downturn - WSJ.com
AUGUST 20, 2009 | Wall Street Journal | by DIANA MIDDLETON and
JANE PORTER. Key lessons throughout: how to make smart decisions with
limited information/uncertainty, examine problems from more than one
angle and anticipate what might happen in the next economic blowup.
curriculum  economic_downturn  MBAs  business_schools  uncertainty  anticipating 
august 2009 by jerryking
Resilience vs. Anticipation: The West is resilient and can roll with the shocks. The East copes through anticipation, the static planning that assumes perfect foresight. - Reason Magazine
August 25, 1997 | Reason | by Virginia Postrel. Great article
outlining the different approaches to living life, business, etc.
There's an East coast "anticipation" or planning approach vs. a West
coast "resilience" approach.
resilience  strategy  anticipating  business_planning  forward_looking  foresight 
may 2009 by jerryking
Succession Planning Is Over-Rated
November 5, 2007 blog post in Adam Smith on

Few individuals are likely to possess all the characteristics sought by
Wall Street institutions or law firms.

As for what matters most, I defer to Dennis Weatherstone, former
chairman of J.P. Morgan, who is given the last word in the Journal
article: Granted, he says, "the number of candidates for these
positions is somewhat limited" and experience is "always valuable." But
he sees the key in something else: It's more important, he avers, to
find a CEO who can "anticipate change." And maybe the one best able to
anticipate change is one who has less of a vested interest in the status
quo. Just a thought.
succession  talent_management  leadership  law_firms  anticipating  CEOs  Bruce_MacEwen  status_quo  experience  industry_experience  change  overrated  what_really_matters 
april 2009 by jerryking
Anticipating Corporate Crises - WSJ.com
SEPTEMBER 22, 2008 | Wall Street Journal | by JOANN S. LUBLIN
and CARI TUNA

Many U.S. boards don't cope well with a crisis. But some directors are
now ratcheting up efforts to anticipate, and avert, trouble. Too many
boards are stocked with poorly prepared directors, who fail to ask
enough tough questions or adequately scrutinize management, governance
specialists say.
Joann_S._Lublin  anticipating  boards_&_directors_&_governance  preparation  risk-management  risk-assessment  scenario-planning  contingency_planning  forward_looking  crisis  hard_questions 
april 2009 by jerryking
Robert Gates - Defense Secretary - International Relations - Politics - Iraq - Iran - New York Times
February 10, 2008 | New York Times | By FRED KAPLAN

* Importance of forward thinking/planning: “I learned to ask the
question, What’s Chapter 2?” he said. “If we do this, what will they do?
Then what? Then what? Try to think two, three, four moves out.”
* Making the boss successful.
* Meetings imply an action--a policy decision.
security_&_intelligence  profile  meetings  action-oriented  Robert_Gates  anticipating  Fred_Kaplan  forward_looking  managing_up  APNSA  SecDef 
april 2009 by jerryking
Luck Isn't Lucky At All - Brian Babcock
February 20, 2004| First published in the Globe and Mail| By BRIAN BABCOCK

start to anticipate.
Brian_Babcock  introspection  self-analysis  Managing_Your_Career  anticipating  luck  chance  contingency  self-awareness  self-assessment 
april 2009 by jerryking

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