jerryking + russia   76

Russian General Pitches ‘Information’ Operations as a Form of War - The New York Times
By Andrew E. Kramer
March 2, 2019

MOSCOW — The chief of Russia’s armed forces endorsed on Saturday the kind of tactics used by his country to intervene abroad, repeating a philosophy of so-called hybrid war that has earned him notoriety in the West, especially among American officials who have accused Russia of election meddling in 2016.
cyber_warfare  information_warfare  Russia  security_&_intelligence 
march 2019 by jerryking
Why is America so bad at information wars?
JULY 18, 2018 | Financial Times | Gillian Tett.

In his new book Messing With the Enemy, Clint Watts, a former FBI agent, describes this exchange as the first “international-terrorist-versus-counter-terrorist Twitter battle”......One way to make sense of today’s extraordinary cyber battles with the Russians is to look at how jihadi groups developed such campaigns years earlier — not least because this oft-ignored parallel shows how the US government has done a poor job fighting its enemies in cyberspace. “America sucks at information warfare,” Watts laments. “Absolutely sucks.”.....US officials attempted to fight back against Isis’s social media campaigns. Watts reveals that in 2013 while at the FBI — and later as a security consultant — he engaged in a long Twitter duel with American-born terrorist Omar Hammami. Other US intelligence groups tried to develop psychological-operations campaigns to fight the extremists. Some of the experimental techniques used to profile social media users were later deployed in the ad-tech industry by companies such as Cambridge Analytica.

However, the US military was simply too bureaucratic, slow moving and rule-laden to match its enemies. And the country that seemed to learn the most from the social media extremists was Russia: Watts describes how he inadvertently witnessed Russian-backed groups populating American social media from the autumn of 2015 onwards, copying some of the tactics of the Islamists....Watts’s proposed remedy is just as startling: he believes that US government agencies are now so ill-equipped to fight in these type of social media wars that it is time for non-government groups to take the lead instead.....many leading figures in Silicon Valley furtively express similar views. Indeed, some appear to be quietly funding civilian “volunteers” to do exactly what Watts suggests: namely, hunt for ways to counter Russian attacks by infiltrating enemy cyber groups.

Who knows whether this type of grass-roots action will work, or how widespread it might be — everything is deeply murky in the arena of cyberspace and information wars.
Gillian_Tett  information_warfare  U.S.  security_&_intelligence  Twitter  al-Shabab  books  cyber_warfare  Russians  hackers  Russia  disinformation  persuasion  trolls  politics  delegitimization  destabilization  deception  infiltration 
july 2018 by jerryking
Opinion | Is Putin a C.I.A. Agent?
April 3, 2018 | The New York Times | By Thomas L. Friedman, Opinion Columnist.

if I were a Russian citizen, I’d be asking this question: Is Putin a U.S. agent?

Why? Because Putin has undertaken so many actions in recent years that contributed to the weakening of Russia’s economy and human capital base that you have to wonder whether he’s secretly on the C.I.A.’s payroll.

Beginning around 2007-08, Putin appears to have decided that rebuilding Russia by nurturing its tremendous human talent and strengthening the rule of law was just too hard — it would have required sharing power, holding real, competitive elections and building a truly diverse, innovation-based economy.

Instead, Putin decided to look for dignity for Russia in all the wrong the places: by tapping his oil and gas wells, not his people; by strengthening the Russian military, instead of the rule of law; and by enriching himself and his circle of oligarchs while wrapping himself in a cloak of Russian Orthodoxy and Russian nationalism that appealed to his base.....Putin consistently acts like a farmer who sells his most valuable beef in return for cubes of sugar. That is, he looks for short-term sugar highs to boost his popularity with his Russian nationalist base, because he is insecure, and pays for it by giving up real beef, leaving Russia weaker in the long term.

Beef for sugar — not a good trade....Putin’s long-range strategy — to bet against Mother Nature, human nature and Moore’s Law, all at once. He’s betting against Mother Nature — that the world will indefinitely remain addicted to his oil and gas in an age of disruptive climate change. He’s betting against human nature — that his young people won’t want to be free to realize their full potential, not just live off sugar-high memories of historical greatness. And he’s betting against Moore’s Law — that the steady growth of technology won’t empower Russia’s youth to connect and collaborate, and see through his charade.
Vladimir_Putin  Russia  Tom_Friedman  petro-dictators  petro-politics 
april 2018 by jerryking
Cyberattacks Put Russian Fingers on the Switch at Power Plants, U.S. Says
MARCH 15, 2018 | The New York Times | By NICOLE PERLROTH and DAVID E. SANGER.

The Trump administration accused Russia on Thursday of engineering a series of cyberattacks that targeted American and European nuclear power plants and water and electric systems, and could have sabotaged or shut power plants off at will.....Russian hacks had taken an aggressive turn. The attacks were no longer aimed at intelligence gathering, but at potentially sabotaging or shutting down plant operations.....Though a major step toward deterrence, publicly naming countries accused of cyberattacks still is unlikely to shame them into stopping. The United States is struggling to come up with proportionate responses to the wide variety of cyberespionage, vandalism and outright attacks.
Russia  security_&_intelligence  cyberattacks  vandalism  cyber_security  power_grid  infrastructure  NSA  vulnerabilities  hackers  U.S._Cyber_Command  David_Sanger  cyberphysical  physical_world 
march 2018 by jerryking
First Skripal, Then NATO - WSJ
By Holman W. Jenkins, Jr.
March 13, 2018

London has long been a favorite place for Putin allies to stash their stolen wealth and conduct their rivalries. Since the attack last week on Sergei Skripal, a former head of Scotland Yard is now calling for investigation of 14 other mysterious, Russia-related deaths........ The West’s risk-aversion in dealing with Mr. Putin is understandable.
Russia  Vladimir_Putin  security_&_intelligence  United_Kingdom  risk-aversion 
march 2018 by jerryking
How Vladimir Putin mastered the cyber disinformation war
February 18, 2018 | FT | by Andrei Soldatov.

outsourcing cyber disinformation campaigns has become a tactic used by Russia to create plausible deniability and lower the costs and risks of controversial overseas operations. Today, Kremlin-backed cyber campaigns have an unorthodox chain of command. It is one in which non-state actors — primarily businessmen with personal ties to important figures in the Kremlin — call the shots, not, as in western cyber operations, the electronic and signals intelligence gathering wings of the army and government agencies.
Vladimir_Putin  Robert_Mueller  indictments  Russia  disinformation  persuasion  trolls  politics  delegitimization  destabilization  deception  cyber_warfare  information_warfare  Kremlin 
february 2018 by jerryking
Security Breach and Spilled Secrets Have Shaken the N.S.A. to Its Core
NOV. 12, 2017 | The New York Times | By SCOTT SHANE, NICOLE PERLROTH and DAVID E. SANGER.

“These leaks have been incredibly damaging to our intelligence and cyber capabilities,” said Leon E. Panetta, the former defense secretary and director of the Central Intelligence Agency. “The fundamental purpose of intelligence is to be able to effectively penetrate our adversaries in order to gather vital intelligence. By its very nature, that only works if secrecy is maintained and our codes are protected.”
adversaries  data_breaches  hacking  vulnerabilities  counterintelligence  counterespionage  moles  malware  ransomware  Fedex  Mondelez  Edward_Snowden  security_&_intelligence  Russia  Leon_Panetta  NSA  cyber_security  cyber_warfare  cyberweapons  tools  David_Sanger  SecDef  CIA 
november 2017 by jerryking
Connecting Trump’s Dots to Russia - The New York Times
Nicholas Kristof MARCH 9, 2017
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Nicholas_Kristof  Donald_Trump  Russia  connecting_the_dots 
march 2017 by jerryking
What Romantic Regime Are You In?
MARCH 7, 2017 | The New York Times | David Brooks.

In Russia, people tend to regard love as a sort of divine madness that descends from the heavens. Love is regarded... as “a destiny, a moral act and a value; it is irresistible, it requires sacrifice and implies suffering and pain....In America people tend to ask: Does a partner fulfill your needs? Do you feel comfortable asserting your rights in the relationship? Does your partner check the right boxes?

While Russians pursue a "Regime of Fate", Americans seek a "Regime of Choice".....The most important requirement for choice is not the availability of multiple options...but the existence of a savvy, sovereign chooser who is well aware of his needs and who acts on the basis of self-interest. Brooks sees those who have mastered the notion of lifelong commitment to belong to a third regime, one he calls the Regime of Covenants in which a covenant is not a choice, but a life-altering promise and all the binding the promise entails.....In the Regime of Covenants, making the right one-time selection is less important than the ongoing action to serve the relationship.

The Covenant people tend to have a “we” consciousness. The good of the relationship itself comes first and the needs of the partner are second and the individual needs are third. The covenant only works if each partner, as best as possible, puts the other’s needs above his or her own, with the understanding that the other will reciprocate....Covenant Regimes require a framework in which exit is not an easy option, in which you’re assured the other person’s love is not going away, and in which the only way to survive the crises is to go deeper into the relationship itself.

The final feature of a covenant is that the relationship is not just about itself; it serves some larger purpose. The obvious one in many cases is raising children. But the deeper one is transformation. People in such a covenant try to love the other in a way that brings out their loveliness. They hope that through this service they’ll become a slightly less selfish version of themselves.
romantic_love  David_Brooks  reciprocity  self-interest  serving_others  covenants  Russia  lifelong  marriage  relationships  commitments  sacrifice  transformational  parenting 
march 2017 by jerryking
Trump Looks to Ex-Intelligence Officer, Putin Critic for National Security Council - WSJ
By FELICIA SCHWARTZ and PAUL SONNE
March 2, 2017

Ms. Hill is known in Washington policy circles for her clear-eyed view of Mr. Putin, viewing his background in the Soviet security services as critical to the way he approaches power politics and foreign policy. Ms. Hill’s selection was first reported by Foreign Policy.

“In the KGB, Putin learned how to probe people’s vulnerabilities, uncover their secrets, and use compromising information against them,” Ms. Hill wrote in a piece that appeared on Vox.com last summer. “In his view, other world leaders are essentially targets.”

Ms. Hill, currently at the Brookings Institution, previously served as an officer for the National Intelligence Council focusing on Russia and Eurasia. She co-wrote a book about Mr. Putin and his world view, and formerly worked at the Eurasia Foundation.
White_House  appointments  Europe  Russia  NSC  security_&_intelligence  women  U.S.foreign_policy  Brookings  think_tanks  Vladimir_Putin 
march 2017 by jerryking
Russia Looks to Exploit White House ‘Turbulence,’ Analysts Say - The New York Times
FEB. 27, 2017 | The New York Times | By NEIL MacFARQUHAR.

The Kremlin, increasingly convinced that President Trump will not fundamentally change relations with Russia, is instead seeking to bolster its global influence by exploiting what it considers weakness in Washington, according to political advisers, diplomats, journalists and other analysts.

Russia has continued to test the United States on the military front, with fighter jets flying close to an American warship in the Black Sea this month and a Russian naval vessel steaming conspicuously in the Atlantic off the coast of Delaware.....“They are all telling each other that this is great, he created this turbulence inside, as we wanted, and now he is focused on his domestic problems and we have more freedom to maneuver,” Mr. Venediktov said. “Let them deal with their own problems. There, not in Ukraine. There, not in the Middle East. There, not in NATO. This is the state of mind right now.”...“The main hope is that the U.S. will be preoccupied with itself and will stop pressuring Russia.”....Any turbulence that Russia foments also gives the Kremlin leverage that it can try to trade in the global arena at a time when it does not have much that others want....Analysts say the Kremlin is keenly aware that the tactic of creating and exploiting disarray can become self-defeating, in that prolonged instability in the world order could allow threats like the extremist group Islamic State to flourish.....The Middle East provides examples of both vectors, analysts say, a moment of chaos to exploit and concerns about achieving stability for the long-term future.
Russia  White_House  Kremlin  Vladimir_Putin  chaos  power  influence  statecraft  rogue_actors  geopolitics  Ukraine  improvisation 
february 2017 by jerryking
Drip, Drip, Drip - The New York Times
Charles M. Blow FEB. 15, 2017
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Charles_Blow  Donald_Trump  Russia 
february 2017 by jerryking
Review: ‘Winter is Coming’, by Garry Kasparov
NOVEMBER 8, 2015 | FT | Review by John Thornhill

‘Winter is Coming: Why Vladimir Putin and the Enemies of the Free World Must be Stopped’, by Garry Kasparov, Atlantic Books, £16.99; Public Affairs, $26.99

"The price of deterrence always goes up"

the real power of Kasparov’s book lies in his argument that the west must pursue a more assertive and moral foreign policy, something that has faded out of fashion. In his view, the most moral foreign policy is also the most effective. It enhances international security by insisting on observance of law....one of the most important aspects of any moral foreign policy is its consistency. Western leaders should keep talking about human rights issues in good times as well as bad. Otherwise, these issues become just another chip on the “geopolitical gaming table”. Those leaders should also insist on raising these subjects with strong autocracies, such as China, as well as the weak.

in Kasparov’s view, US President Bill Clinton squandered the chance to advance the international human rights agenda in the 1990s, as the west took a holiday from history. And today the west is too “uninformed, callous, or apathetic” to assert its influence and values.

He, rightly, argues that one of the most important aspects of any moral foreign policy is its consistency. Western leaders should keep talking about human rights issues in good times as well as bad. Otherwise, these issues become just another chip on the “geopolitical gaming table”. Those leaders should also insist on raising these subjects with strong autocracies, such as China, as well as the weak.
books  Russia  Vladimir_Putin  book_reviews  authors  writers  dictators  dictatorships  deterrence  dissension  Ukraine  human_rights  strategic_thinking  autocracies  chess  authoritarianism  foreign_policy  geopolitics  liberal_pluralism  rogue_actors  Garry_Kasparov  consistency  exile 
january 2017 by jerryking
Putin Sees a Happy New Year - The New York Times
By MICHAEL KHODARKOVSKYDEC. 26, 2016

Today, Mr. Putin focuses the shrinking resources of a beleaguered Russian economy on the twin agendas of restoring Russia’s position among the world’s powers and undermining Western institutions. For him it is a zero sum game. Moscow can easily deploy thousands of hackers and trolls to achieve maximum disruption while Western democracies awaken too slowly to the dangers. And the dangers are grave. From state-sponsored mass doping in sports to corrosive business practices, from silencing political dissent at home to supporting brutal regimes abroad, Russia’s policies are rooted in deceit, graft and violence — a combination that presents an existential challenge to democracies.....This is not routine cyber intelligence, which many nations practice. Russia’s cyber activity seeks to confuse, destabilize and ultimately bring to power foreign governments pliant to Russia’s aims. That is an attack on the values and institutions of democratic societies, and, if successful, it achieves the same result as a military invasion to install a new government.
Russia  Vladimir_Putin  cyber_warfare  disinformation  destabilization  security_&_intelligence  propaganda  deception  zero-sum_games  offensive_tactics 
december 2016 by jerryking
Putin Is Waging Information Warfare. Here’s How to Fight Back. - The New York Times
By MARK GALEOTTIDEC. 14, 2016

the United States and its allies should pursue a strategy of deterrence by denial. Mr. Putin shouldn’t fear retaliation for his information warfare — he should fear that he will fail.

There are several ways to go about this. First, United States institutions need better cybersecurity defenses. Political parties and major newspapers are now targets just as much as the power grid and the Pentagon are. The government has to help provide security when it can — but people have a duty to be more vigilant and recognize that their cybersecurity is about protecting the country, not just their own email accounts. ....Finally, Mr. Putin’s own vanity could be turned into a weapon against him. Every time he overreaches, the American government should point it out. Every time he fails, we need to say so loudly and clearly. We should tell jokes about him. He can rewrite the record in Russia, but the West does not have to contribute to his mythmaking — and we should stop building him up by portraying him as a virtual supervillain.
cyberattacks  Vladimir_Putin  cyber_security  cyber_warfare  retaliation  security_&_intelligence  punitive  phishing  deterrence  economic_warfare  blacklists  retribution  disinformation  campaigns  destabilization  Russia  information_warfare  delegitimization  deception  overreach  power_grid 
december 2016 by jerryking
What Can the Next President Do About Russia? - WSJ
By ROBERT D. KAPLAN
Updated Oct. 16, 2016

Of the two great autocratic powers in Eurasia, Russia is emerging as a greater short-term threat than China. The Chinese hope to gradually dominate the waters off the Asian mainland without getting into a shooting war with the U.S. Yet while Beijing’s aggression is cool, Moscow’s is hot....Russia’s economic situation is much worse than China’s, and so the incentive of its leaders to dial up nationalism is that much greater. But the larger factor, one that Western elites have trouble understanding, cannot be quantified: A deeply embedded sense of historical insecurity makes Russian aggression crude, brazen, bloodthirsty and risk-prone. ....How does the U.S. build leverage on the ground, from the Baltic Sea to the Syrian desert, that puts America in a position where negotiations with Russia can make a strategic difference?....

For without the proper geopolitical context, the secretary of state is a missionary, not a diplomat. ...In the cyber domain the U.S. has not sufficiently drawn red lines. What kind of Russian hacking will result in either a proportionate, or even disproportionate, punitive response? The Obama administration seems to be proceeding ad hoc, as it has done with Russia policy in general. The next administration, along with projecting military force throughout the Russian near abroad, will have to project force in cyberspace, too.
Russia  Vladimir_Putin  Robert_Kaplan  threats  deterrence  nationalism  Baltics  NATO  U.S.foreign_policy  leverage  geopolitics  log_rolling  diplomacy  realism  balance_of_power  realpolitik  cyber_warfare  autocracies  insecurity  hacking  maritime  punitive  retribution  retaliation  South_China_Sea  ad_hoc  red_lines  China  autocrats 
october 2016 by jerryking
Why Putin would be behind the DNC computer hacking - The Globe and Mail
PATRICK MARTIN
The Globe and Mail
Published Saturday, Jul. 30, 2016

U.S. security experts have concluded with near certainty that it was two groups of hackers known in the cyberworld as Fancy Bear and Cozy Bear that penetrated the computer network of the Democratic National Committee several months ago and copied thousands of e-mails and other documents. These hackers, they say, can be traced to two of Russia’s security services: the GRU, run by Russia’s military, and the FSB, the main successor to the notorious KGB.

These operations would not have been conducted without the knowledge of Russian President Vladimir Putin, the one-time head of the FSB.

Such espionage is not totally unexpected, says David Kramer of Washington’s McCain Institute, a security-oriented “do tank” (as opposed to think tank). However, “weaponizing” the operation by releasing many of the documents through the whistle-blower website WikiLeaks, is “unprecedented,” he said.
Russia  U.S.  Donald_Trump  Hillary_Clinton  information_warfare  Vladimir_Putin  Campaign_2016  Patrick_Martin  hacking  data_breaches  cyber_security  hackers  WikiLeaks  security_&_intelligence  FSB  GRU  DNC  espionage 
july 2016 by jerryking
Why Russian hackers would meddle in U.S. politics - The Globe and Mail
DEREK BURNEY AND FEN OSLER HAMPSON
Special to The Globe and Mail
Published Wednesday, Jul. 27, 2016

But this is not just simply a titillating scandal in America’s electoral silly season. It sadly points to a fundamental weakness in the United States’ own cyberstrategy and its inability to deal effectively with autocrats who have outsized, imperial ambitions and terrorists who want to wreak havoc. Cyberattacks are increasingly the cornerstone of Russia’s regional and global military and political security strategy. They offset Moscow’s economic weakness.
Russia  hackers  cyber_security  data_breaches  cyberattacks  DNC  Campaign_2016  security_&_intelligence  autocrats 
july 2016 by jerryking
U.S. Cyber Command Chief on What Threats to Fear the Most - WSJ
June 19, 2016 | WSJ |

But the types of threats that we worry most about today that are new are adversaries taking full control of our networks, losing control of our networks, having a hacker appear to be a trusted user......MS. BLUMENSTEIN: Extraordinary investments are required now for cybersecurity. But looked at another way, there’s an extraordinary cost to getting it wrong.

I was talking to one of the CFOs out there who said, “Can you ask, what is the estimated loss?” Is there a total number? Or do you just know specific incidences?

On the military side, you can imagine the difficulty that would cause a commander, if he didn’t trust his own network or his data.
adversaries  cyber_security  cyber_warfare  threats  North_Korea  ISIS  network_risk  capabilities  Russia  China  Sony  data  Pentagon  U.S._Cyber_Command  cyberattacks 
june 2016 by jerryking
The new game | The Economist
Oct 17th 2015 |

America still has resources other powers lack. Foremost is its web of alliances, including NATO. Whereas Mr Obama sometimes behaves as if alliances are transactional, they need solid foundations. America’s military power is unmatched, but it is hindered by pork-barrel politics and automatic cuts mandated by Congress. These spring from the biggest brake on American leadership: dysfunctional politics in Washington. That is not just a poor advertisement for democracy; it also stymies America’s interest. In the new game it is something that the United States—and the world—can ill afford.
U.S.foreign_policy  politics  China  Russia  gridlocked_politics  network_density  Vladimir_Putin  Syria  Asia_Pacific  South_China_Sea  networks  power  NATO  influence  superpowers  indispensable  international_system  transactional_relationships  alliances  Obama 
october 2015 by jerryking
Fareed Zakaria: China and Russia set the tone for global stability - The Globe and Mail
BRIAN MILNER
Fareed Zakaria: China and Russia set the tone for global stability
SUBSCRIBERS ONLY
The Globe and Mail
Published Tuesday, May. 05 2015
Fareed_Zakaria  China  Russia 
may 2015 by jerryking
Our East-West lines are just artifices - The Globe and Mail
DOUG SAUNDERS
The Globe and Mail
Published Saturday, Feb. 14 2015
Doug_Saunders  Russia 
february 2015 by jerryking
Desperate Putin, Russia on last gasp, strategist says - The Globe and Mail
BRIAN MILNER
Desperate Putin, Russia on last gasp, strategist says
SUBSCRIBERS ONLY
The Globe and Mail
Published Thursday, Jan. 15 201
Russia  Vladimir_Putin  downward_mobility 
january 2015 by jerryking
What’s Next for E-Commerce - WSJ - WSJ
Nov. 2, 2014 | WSJ |

Storing this excerpt here. Unrelated to this Pinboarded article. "In the magazine's November 2009 issue, Charlene Li, the Founder of Altimeter Group is quoted as saying, "Engagement is more than just setting up a blog and letting viewers post comments; it's more than just having a Facebook profile and having others write on your wall. It's also about keeping your blog content fresh and replying to comments; it's building your friends network and updating your profile status. Don't just check the box; engage with your customer audience."....Taken from What are the best trade magazines for the retail business? Asked by Sacrina on Askville by Amazon found here (http://askville.amazon.com/trade-magazines-retail-business/AnswerViewer.do?requestId=40237210)
e-commerce  Russia  customer_engagement  customer_experience  Amazon  Altimeter 
november 2014 by jerryking
U.S. Scurries to Shore Up Spying on Russia - WSJ
By ADAM ENTOUS, JULIAN E. BARNES and SIOBHAN GORMAN CONNECT
Updated March 24, 2014

There were no Americans on the ground in Crimea to check reports of Russian military movements, U.S. officials say. The U.S. also didn't have drones overhead to gather real-time intelligence, officials say. That increased the U.S.'s reliance on satellite imagery and information gleaned from an analysis of social media, which was muddled by Russian disinformation. State Department officials declined to discuss any technical-intelligence activities.

If Mr. Putin decided to launch a takeover, many U.S. intelligence analysts thought he would use troops participating in the military exercises. Officials now say they underestimated the quality of Russian forces inside Crimea....U.S. military officials also made urgent calls to their counterparts in Russia. Not surprisingly, Russian military officials offered little information. Some of them claimed to be surprised. "It was classic maskirovka," says a senior U.S. official, using the Russian word for camouflage. Spies use the word to describe Moscow's tradition of sophisticated deception tactics.
espionage  surveillance  sigint  Russia  Crimea  imagery  satellites  security_&_intelligence  warning_signs  Vladimir_Putin  disinformation  camouflage  deception  intelligence_analysts 
november 2014 by jerryking
The Grand Strategy Obama Needs
SEPT. 10, 2014 | NYTimes.com | Vali R. Nasr.

What’s missing is a grand strategy — a road map not just for managing two crises but for ending them....But Eisenhower had a larger goal — not upsetting the delicate balance of power in the Cold War. Above all, he sought to avoid greater conflict, especially when he was trying to start arms control talks with Moscow.

In other words, he had a long-term global perspective.

By contrast, American policy today sees the world in fragments — ISIS in Iraq and Syria, Russia in Ukraine. But those crises have something important in common: Both trace to political fragmentation in weak states living within unsettled borders. That leaves those states prone to internal dissent, and America’s recent minimalist posture has given these brewing troubles room to explode into crises....American grand strategy should identify these weak countries before they turn on themselves; bolster their political mechanisms for living together in pluralism; declare our unyielding opposition to any outside forces that would seek to divide them. America’s military strength could assure the third part. The rest is work for our political and diplomatic experts.
Obama  Ukraine  strategy  geopolitics  '50s  Middle_East  Russia  strategic_thinking  nation_building  failed_states  long-term  weak_states  diplomacy  grand_strategy  roadmaps  Non-Integrating_Gap  Dwight_Eisenhower  crisis 
september 2014 by jerryking
Gas deal with Russia a ‘drop in the bucket’ for China
May. 24 2014 | The Globe and Mail | Campbell Clark.

Why? Nearly all growth in demand for energy will come from emerging economies, but especially China. Its needs will shape global prices. If it suffers shortages, or supplies are at risk, it will send price shocks through world markets.

That would hit the U.S. economy – because “we pay global prices,” Mr. Pascual said. And a U.S. slowdown would hurt Canada, even if energy exporters benefit from price spikes.

There are also critical questions of how energy affects geopolitics, made sharper in the Ukraine-Russia crisis. Moscow has used energy as a political lever, shutting pipelines to Ukraine, while Europe’s dependence on Russian gas has cooled drives to tougher economic sanctions.

Mr. Pascual, however, believes Europe’s example offers hope in preventing a nation from using energy as a political lever in Asia.

Europeans invested in infrastructure so natural gas can flow in different directions, rather than just westward from Russia. They banned “destination clauses” so Russia’s Gazprom can no longer bar customers from re-exporting gas. That promotes competition, and allows Ukraine to get gas through Poland, Hungary and Slovakia, Mr. Pascual said. Europe is also building infrastructure for liquid natural gas, shipped from places like Qatar.
natural_gas  Russia  China  geopolitics  energy  energy_security  LNG  Asian  price_spikes  Gazprom  optionality  petro-politics 
may 2014 by jerryking
Fareed Zakaria: China’s cyberespionage presents a 21st-century challenge -
May 22, 2014 | The Washington Post | By Fareed Zakaria.
...Vladimir Putin might be a 19th-century statesman, using old-fashioned muscle to get his way, but it has become clear that Chinese President Xi Jinping goes one step further, comfortably embracing both 19th- and 21st-century tactics....it’s also worth studying Xi’s speech in Shanghai, given the same day the deal was struck. The meeting was a gathering of an obscure Asian regional group, one that includes Turkey, Iran and Russia but not the United States. His message was that Asians should take care of their own security. ...

...Cyberattacks are part of a new, messy, chaotic world, fueled by globalization and the information revolution. In a wired, networked world, it is much harder to shut down activity that blurs the lines between governments and private citizens, national and international realms, theft and warfare. And it certainly will not be possible to do so using traditional mechanisms of national security. Notice that Washington is using a legal mechanism (which will be ineffective and largely symbolic) for what is really a national security issue.

The Sino-Russian gas deal reminds us that traditional geopolitics is alive and well. Washington knows how to work its way in that world with its own alliances and initiatives. But cyberespionage represents a new frontier, and no one really has the ideas, tools or strategies to properly address this challenge.
Fareed_Zakaria  challenges  cyber_security  cyber_warfare  espionage  Vladimir_Putin  Russia  China  geopolitics  security_&_intelligence  natural_gas  21st._century  industrial_espionage  petro-politics  realpolitik  Asia  Xi_Jinping  statesmen  cyberattacks  cyberespionage 
may 2014 by jerryking
Saving the System - NYTimes.com
APRIL 28, 2014 | NYT | David Brooks.

“The ‘category error’ of our experts is to tell us that our system is doing just fine and proceeding on its eternal course toward ever-greater progress and global goodness. This is whistling past the graveyard.

“The lesson-category within grand strategic history is that when an established international system enters its phase of deterioration, many leaders nonetheless respond with insouciance, obliviousness, and self-congratulation. When the wolves of the world sense this, they, of course, will begin to make their moves to probe the ambiguities of the aging system and pick off choice pieces to devour at their leisure.

“This is what Putin is doing; this is what China has been moving toward doing in the maritime waters of Asia; this is what in the largest sense the upheavals of the Middle East are all about: i.e., who and what politico-ideological force will emerge as hegemon over the region in the new order to come. ....Today that system is under assault not by a single empire but by a hundred big and little foes. As Walter Russell Mead argues in a superb article in Foreign Affairs, geopolitics is back with a vengeance. Whether it’s Russia seizing Crimea or China asserting itself, old-fashioned power plays are back in vogue. Meanwhile, pre-modern movements and people try to eliminate ethnic and religious diversity in Egypt, Ukraine and beyond.

China, Russia and Iran have different values, but all oppose this system of liberal pluralism. The U.S. faces a death by a thousand cuts dilemma. No individual problem is worth devoting giant resources to. It’s not worth it to spend huge amounts of treasure to establish stability in Syria or defend a Western-oriented Ukraine. But, collectively, all the little problems can undermine the modern system. No individual ailment is worth the expense of treating it, but, collectively, they can kill you.
Colleges_&_Universities  strategy  strategic_thinking  China  Russia  Iran  diplomacy  geopolitics  curriculum  Yale  David_Brooks  Walter_Russell_Mead  grand_strategy  liberal_pluralism  rogue_actors  international_system  autocracies  authoritarianism 
april 2014 by jerryking
So Far, Russia's Oil and Gas Allow It to Act Badly - WSJ.com
By GERALD F. SEIB | April 22, 2014

Of all the lessons one might draw from Russia's bullying of Ukraine, this may be the most coldblooded of all: If you want to behave badly, it helps to have a lot of oil and gas. Much will be forgiven, or at least ignored.

European nations, international energy companies and China are all, in their own ways, driving home the point. The Europeans are afraid of pushing economic sanctions against Moscow too far lest they be cut off from the Russian natural gas that provides a significant share of their energy.

The international energy companies are busy reassuring the Russians that they will keep working to help develop Russian energy supplies, the Ukraine crisis notwithstanding.

And the Chinese—well, they may be on the verge of completing a deal that has been under negotiation for 10 years to begin buying a lot of Russian natural gas. Russian officials said last week that they expect the negotiations to be completed before Russian President Vladimir Putin visits China in May.

For Mr. Putin, a China deal would amount to a multibillion-dollar strategic security blanket. If European nations to Russia's west don't want to buy his gas because of his annexation of Crimea and intimidation of Ukraine, never mind. He soon will have a large market for his gas to the east as an alternate.
natural_gas  oil_industry  Russia  Gerald_Seib  Ukraine  China  petro-politics  large_markets 
april 2014 by jerryking
The end of our illusions about Russia - The Globe and Mail
Jeffrey Simpson

The Globe and Mail

Published Wednesday, Mar. 26 2014,

"Russia can neither be ignored nor ostracized, no matter how chauvinistic its behaviour, nor should it necessarily be feared. Russian chauvinism has always been one-part nationalism, one part awareness of internal weakness, which is why Russia’s historical relations with the countries of Western Europe have oscillated between co-operation and confrontation."....What Russia wanted, and still wants, is a sphere of uncontested influence. When the West, possessed of a post-Cold War triumphalism, would not grant that sphere, as Vladimir Putin and his cronies defined it, Russia rebelled.
Russia  Ukraine  Vladimir_Putin  Jeffrey_Simpson  post-Cold_War  triumphalism  chauvinism 
march 2014 by jerryking
Josef Joffe: Dear Vladimir: Congratulations. You Read My Book - WSJ.com
By
Josef Joffe
March 6, 2014 | WSJ |

Be both ruthless and prudent—just what I prescribed in "The Prince." You Russians have distilled my wisdom into a pithy phrase: Kto kovo—who dominates whom? And you have beautifully executed my central idea. I never preached violence to the max, but the "economy of force"—how to get more with less. The Crimean caper was a masterpiece of smart power politics.

Grab opportunities when you saw them. First, you calculated the "correlation of forces," to use a Soviet term....Then, you assessed political geography correctly. The rule is never to take on a superior enemy like the West on his own turf. You test his mettle on his periphery...Next, factor in geography proper. Globally, the West is far superior to Russia, but regionally, you were the Man. You had the "interior lines," as the great Prussian strategist Carl von Clausewitz put it; the West was a thousand miles away. And your troops were already in place in Crimea—tanks, planes and all....Now to the balance of interests, a more subtle concept. The EU has been contesting you over Ukraine, but more as a confused afterthought. Your country had more compelling fish to fry: Ukraine as former Russian heartland plus an ethnic majority in Crimea, a strategic gem that Khrushchev had absentmindedly given away to Ukraine 60 years ago.

So you also held the psychological advantage that comes with having more skin in the game. Khrushchev blithely ignored the balance of interests in the Caribbean. Otherwise he would not have moved his missiles into Cuba in 1962, 90 miles off the U.S. coast.....Best of all, you are a true Machiavellian when it comes to the economy of violence. Just enough, never too much, and with minimal risks. So you didn't grab eastern Ukraine, which might have really riled the West and triggered a costly insurgency. You merely harvested the low-hanging fruit of Crimea, and with a fabulous profit. ....Here, my pupil, beckons the biggest payoff. You need not fear the democratic contagion of the Maidan spilling over into your own country. Not for a long time.

What a boost to your "street cred" in the rivalry of nations! With a small investment, you have amassed what Mr. Obama no longer has and what the Europeans lost long ago: a reputation for ruthlessness and the readiness to use force.

Power is when you don't have to wield it—when you don't have to threaten, let alone execute, to get your way.....We live in a split world. In Asia and Africa, mayhem is as present or possible as ever. Call this the "Damascus-Pyongyang Belt." Yet in the "Berlin-Berkeley Belt," force as a tool of statecraft has virtually disappeared....the U.S.—is now loath to resort to the ultima ratio. And that offers you wondrous opportunities. When the supply of force contracts, even a little bit goes a long way, as you have proved in Crimea.
Niccolò_Machiavelli  Vladimir_Putin  Crimea  Russia  hard_power  power  influence  statecraft  geopolitics  Ukraine  improvisation  rogue_actors  skin_in_the_game  political_geography  ruthlessness  large_payoffs  Carl_von_Clausewitz  strategic_geography 
march 2014 by jerryking
A Russian GPS Using U.S. Soil Stirs Spy Fears - NYTimes.com
By MICHAEL S. SCHMIDT and ERIC SCHMITT
Published: November 16, 2013
U.S.  GPS  Russia  espionage  CIA  space  satellites 
november 2013 by jerryking
One final ignominy for a pioneer of abstract art
Sep. 26 2013 | - The Globe and Mail | RUSSELL SMITH

We Canadians shouldn’t be shocked – we ourselves have little concept of placing historical markers of cultural grandeur in our cities. We don’t name our streets after our artists, even when a great artist lived there. We don’t even put up plaques on their former houses. Our municipal governments have no interest in turning our dull concrete grids into a series of references to fantasy – as the streets of Paris and London, for example, are; there, you can walk and meet ghosts of both authors and fictional characters; not only can you see who died of consumption in a garret upstairs, but also whose character did. These plaques lay a fictional city over a real one. (Oh well, you might say, Canada is not famous for its art anyway. And I would say, yes, and this is why.)
Russell_Smith  art  Russia  ideacity  culture  history  overlay_networks  fantasy  wayfinding  artists  cities  virtual_worlds  cityscapes  iconic  street_furniture  landmarks  metaphysical  London  Paris  imagination 
september 2013 by jerryking
For Homesick Russian Tycoon, Instant of Ruin Came in Court - NYTimes.com
For Homesick Russian Tycoon, Instant of Ruin Came in Court
Andrew Cowie/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images

Boris A. Berezovsky, center, in London last August after he lost a $5.1 billion lawsuit against a former associate. Facing millions in legal bills, he began to divest himself of the assets he had acquired so proudly.
By SARAH LYALL
Published: March 24, 2013
obituaries  moguls  Russia 
march 2013 by jerryking
Dawning of new ages sees Russia and China set realpolitik agenda - The Globe and Mail
MARK MacKINNON

BEIJING — The Globe and Mail

Last updated Wednesday, Jun. 06 2012,
alliances  summits  Russia  China 
june 2012 by jerryking
Catherine the Great's Lessons for Despots - WSJ.com
NOVEMBER 12, 2011

Catherine the Great's Lessons for Despots
Russia's erudite empress tried to redeem absolute rule; her failures highlight dangers still present today
By ROBERT K. MASSIE
Russia  royal_courts 
november 2011 by jerryking
U.S. Report Cites 'Persistent' Chinese, Russian Spying for Economic Gain - WSJ.com
NOVEMBER 4, 2011 | WSJ| By SIOBHAN GORMAN

China Singled Out for Cyberspying
U.S. Intelligence Report Labels Chinese 'Most Active' in Economic Espionage; Russia Also Named.

"The nations of China and Russia, through their intelligence services and through their corporations, are attacking our research and development," said U.S. counterespionage chief Robert Bryant.

Mr. Bryant spoke at a rare public event Thursday to roll out the report by his staff at the Office of the National Counterintelligence Executive. The report focuses on spying primarily for commercial and economic purposes, as opposed to national security. "This is a national, long-term, strategic threat to the United States of America," he said. "This is an issue where failure is not an option."
Russia  China  espionage  industrial_espionage  security_&_intelligence  counterespionage 
november 2011 by jerryking
How Anna Chapman Became the Face of Kremlin Capitalism - BusinessWeek
September 29, 2011, 4:45 PM EDT
How Anna Chapman Became the Face of Kremlin Capitalism
She may have been an unremarkable Russian spy in the States, but now Moscow's "self-promoter of the year" is a useful hero

By Nathan Thornburgh
Russia  Moscow  Anna_Chapman  espionage 
october 2011 by jerryking
Putin’s autocracy has a shaky foundation: oil - The Globe and Mail
CHRYSTIA FREELAND | Columnist profile
From Friday's Globe and Mail
Published Thursday, Sep. 29, 2011
Chrystia_Freeland  Russia  Vladimir_Putin  Dmitry_Medvedev  oil_industry  autocracies  petro-politics 
october 2011 by jerryking
The Khodorkovsky trial and its underlying tolerance - The Globe and Mail
CHRYSTIA FREELAND | Columnist profile
Globe and Mail Update
Published Friday, Jan. 07, 2011
Russia  tyrants  Chrystia_Freeland  Khodorkovsky 
january 2011 by jerryking
the arctic: A View From Moscow
2010 | Carnegie Endowment for International Peace | Dmitri Trenin and Pavel K. B
Artic  Russia  foreign_policy  filetype:pdf  media:document 
december 2010 by jerryking
FT.com / Books / Non-Fiction - Secret agents more doltish than tough
Review by Charles Clover

Published: October 18 2010 01:57 | Last updated: October 18 2010 01:57

The New Nobility: The Restoration of Russia’s Security State and the
Enduring Legacy of the KGB, by Andrei Soldatov and Irina Borogan,
PublicAffairs, RRP£18.99
Russia  security_&_intelligence  book_reviews  KGB 
october 2010 by jerryking
Don't Try This at Home
SEPT. / OCT. 2010 | Foreign Policy | BY MARGARET O'MARA. I've
met with officials from Bangalore, Barcelona, Chennai, Dublin, Fukuoka,
Helsinki, Shenzhen, Stockholm, and many American cities as well. They
all want to know the same thing: How did the Valley do it? And how can
we duplicate its success? Unfortunately, there are a lot of wrong ways
to go about building the next Silicon Valley...Yet I still have a hard
time convincing the never-ending delegations of urban planners of the
importance of the other, broader things government can do, like
liberalizing immigration rules and creating an environment full of
educational opportunities and start-up capital for untested young
entrepreneurs. This simply doesn't resonate for many of the would-be
silicon cities being constructed by the Russias and Chinas of the world;
with their long histories of centralized control, they are still
convinced they can order up success.
cities  public_policy  location  innovation  top-down  centralized_control  Russia  China  urban_planning  Silicon_Valley 
september 2010 by jerryking
Spying as Networking: Alleged Spies Used Unconventional Methods - WSJ.com
JULY 1, 2010 | Wall Street Journal | PAUL SONNE, CASSELL BRYAN-LOW And APARAJITA SAHA-BUBNA
espionage  security_&_intelligence  Russia  unconventional 
july 2010 by jerryking
Business Books: Why Russia and China will eat your lunch
May 28, 2010 | Reuters | by Herbert Lash. The Western
multinationals that have dominated global trade for decades are going to
have their lunch eaten in China and elsewhere, and many are unaware
it's about to happen. That's the warning in "The End of the Free
Market" (Portfolio, $26.95), a new book by political risk expert Ian
Bremmer. Bremmer, known for showing the effect of political turmoil on
financial markets, argues that China, Russia and other emerging markets
have developed a new economic model -- state capitalism -- that clashes
with the free-market system of the West.
book_reviews  China  Russia  multinationals  free_markets  state_capitalism  SOEs  Ian_Bremmer 
may 2010 by jerryking
Putinism's Piranha Stage - WSJ.com
* JUNE 9, 2009

Putinism's Piranha Stage
Russia's prime minister turns on his loyal friends.

*
By BRET STEPHENS
Vladimir_Putin  Russia  Bret_Stephens 
june 2009 by jerryking

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